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DOE OSTI2021

Proton capture on 34 S in the astrophysical energy regime of O-Ne novae

Nuclear reaction sensitivity studies have shown that the final isotopic abundance of O-Ne nova nucleosynthesis is dependent on the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction at astrophysical energies corresponding to peak nova burning temperatures of 0.1–0.4 GK. Isotopic ratios of the S, Cl, and Ar products are all used in various methods of cosmochemical analysis of presolar meteoritic grains. Due to the lack of direct experimental data, the 34 S+p reaction rate has been estimated using statistical modeling or information from indirect nucleon transfer experiments. In order to provide direct reaction information, here the resonance strengths of several low energy resonances, E c.m. = 272–495 keV, in the 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl reaction were measured for the first time in inverse kinematics using the DRAGON recoil separator located at TRIUMF, Canada’s Particle Accelerator Centre in Vancouver.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Basement Fault Activation before Larger Earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas

Oklahoma and Kansas experienced unprecedented seismic activity over the past decade due to earthquakes associated with unconventional hydrocarbon development. The modest natural seismicity and incomplete knowledge of the fault network in the region made it difficult to anticipate the locations of earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M w ≥ 4). Here, we show that monitoring of microearthquakes at regional scale using a pretrained neural phase picker and an earthquake relocation algorithm can illuminate unknown fault structures, and deliver information that can be synthesized for earthquake forecasting. We found that 80% of the larger earthquakes that occurred in the past decade could have been anticipated based on the spatial extent of the seismicity clusters that were formed before these earthquakes occurred. We also found that once a seismicity cluster with a length scale enough to host a larger earthquake was formed, there was a ~5% chance that it would host one or more larger earthquakes within a year. This probability is nearly an order of magnitude higher than one based on Gutenberg–Richter statistics and preceding seismicity. Applying our approach in practice can provide critical information on seismic hazards for risk management and regulatory decision making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Graph-based featurization methods for classifying small molecule compounds

For over a decade, drug-induced liver injury (DILI) has posed significant drawbacks in the synthesis and development of drugs and remains a consequential concern. With finite success within the existing preclinical models, DILI is one of the main causes of drug withdrawal or termination from the market. Particularly, this withdrawal occurs during the late stages of drug development (Kullak-Ublick, 2017). Since DILI is difficult to diagnose and treat, it has become an obstacle in the drug production market that in turn affects clinicians, pharmaceutical companies, and consumers. We propose a method for learning features of DILI-positive drugs based on the graphical relationships and patterns they possess within a network of biological databases. We also train various statistical and machine learning models on these learned features in order to classify the drugs as DILI-positive or negative. Our methods include Random Forest, Neural networks, and logistic regression classification. We utilize labeled DILI-positive and DILI-negative datasets, which were developed by the FDA and the National center for toxicological research, as well as additional literature datasets (Thakkar, 2020) in order to validate our results and assess our featurization and model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1972

Program for standard statistical distributions

Development of procedure to describe frequency distributions involved in statistical theory is discussed. Representation of frequency distributions by first order differential equation is presented. Classification of various types of distributions based on Pearson parameters is analyzed.

Falls, L. W.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Effect of multiple spin species on spherical shell neutron transmission analysis

A series of Monte Carlo calculations were performed in order to evaluate the effect of separated against merged spin statistics on the analysis of spherical shell neutron transmission experiments for gold. It is shown that the use of separated spin statistics results in larger average capture cross sections of gold at 24 KeV. This effect is explained by stronger windows in the total cross section caused by the interference between potential and J(+) resonances and by J(+) and J(-) resonance overlap allowed by the use of separated spin statistics.

Semler, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Fracture Behavior in Nylon 6 Fibers

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) techniques are used to determine the number of free radicals produced during deformation leading to fracture of nylon 6 fibers. A reaction rate molecular model is proposed to explain some of the deformation and bond rupture behavior leading to fracture. High-strength polymer fibers are assumed to consist of a sandwich structure of disordered and ordered regions along the fiber axis. In the disordered or critical flaw regions, tie chains connecting the ordered or crystalline block regions are assumed to have a statistical distribution in length. These chains are, therefore, subjected to different stresses. The effective length distribution was determined by EPR. The probability of bond rupture was assumed to be controlled by reaction-rate theory with a stress-aided activation energy and behavior of various loadings determined by numerical techniques. The model is successfully correlated with experimental stress, strain, and bond rupture results for creep, constant rate loadings, cyclic stress, stress relaxation and step strain tests at room temperature.

Lloyd, B. A.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Low energy magnetospheric plasma interactions with space systems: The role of predictions

The present status of low energy magnetospheric plasma interactions with space systems is reviewed. The role of predictions in meeting user needs in assessing the impact of such interactions is described. In light of the perceived needs of the user community and of the current status of modeling and prediction efforts, it is suggested that for most user needs more detailed statistical models of the low energy environment are required. In order to meet current prediction requirements, real-time in situ measurements are proposed as a near-term solution.

Garrett, H. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Quantum disorder, duality, and fractional statistics in 2 + 1 dimensions

A low-energy equivalence between two apparently unrelated Lagrangians with fractional statistics is reported. Exploiting this equivalence, it is possible to study the quantum disordered phase of the nonlinear sigma model with Hopf term. It is found that the quasi-particles in the disordered phase also have fractional statistics. There appears to be a dual relationship between the ordered and disordered phases.

Wen, X. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 3: A stochastic rain fade control algorithm for satellite link power via non linear Markow filtering theory

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on Earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above 30/20 GHz Ka band, i.e., rain attenuation, cloud and/or clear air scintillation, etc., combined with the need to counter such degradations after the small link margins have been exceeded, necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory.

Manning, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A survey for infrared excesses among high galactic latitude SAO stars

This project involves extending the previous analysis of infrared excesses among a volume-limited sample of 134 nearby A-K main-sequence stars to a magnitude-limited sample of stars, culled from the SAO Catalog, with excesses determined from the IRAS Point Source Catalog flux density ratios. This new sample includes 5706 B-M type stars, 379 of which have infrared excesses. The objective involved use of a statistically complete survey of objects in a standard catalog in order to assess the frequency with which different physical processes can affect the infrared output of stars. These processes include, but are not limited to, orbiting cold particle clouds and the onset of rapid mass loss. It is concluded that cold disks are consistent with the infrared excesses found among A-G dwarfs and G-K giants in the sample.

Stencel, Robert E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Airborne remote sensing of tropospheric water vapor using a near infrared DIAL system

Summarized here are the results of airborne water vapor measurements in the lower middle and upper troposphere using the Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) technique in the near infrared. The measurements were performed in July 1990 in Southern Bavaria between Allersberg and Straubing from 20 to 23 UTC taking advantage of night time conditions. The tropospheric H2O profiles were range investigated both horizontally and vertically. With the DIAL system that was used, water vapor measurements in the upper troposphere have been carried out for the first time. To calibrate the H2O-retrievals, effective absorption cross sections of selected H2O lines in terms of altitude around 724 nm were calculated using line parameter data from the literature (B. E. Grossmann et al). The frequency of the on-line measurements was adjusted by the spectra of a Polyacenic Semiconductor (PAS) cell filled with H2O. We found that the calibration error ranged between 0.005 and 0.015 cm(exp -1). The systematic errors of the H2O as a function of altitude were estimated below 7 km and 12 percent accuracy in the upper troposphere. The vertical H2O profile agrees well with in situ measurements in the investigated range between the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) up to near the tropopause. Horizontal and vertical H2O profiles are calculated by means of averaging single lidar returns. Typical horizontal resolutions range from 4 km in the lower to 11 km in the upper troposphere with vertical resolutions varying from 0.3 km up to 1 km, respectively, in order to satisfy a 5 - 10 percent accuracy in the statistical error. The measurement sensibility of the water vapor mixing ration in the upper troposphere is 0.01 g/kg.

Ehret, G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Adaptive filtering and maximum entropy spectra with application to changes in atmospheric angular momentum

The spectral resolution and statistical significance of a harmonic analysis obtained by low-order MEM can be improved by subjecting the data to an adaptive filter. This adaptive filter consists of projecting the data onto the leading temporal empirical orthogonal functions obtained from singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The combined SSA-MEM method is applied both to a synthetic time series and a time series of AAM data. The procedure is very effective when the background noise is white and less so when the background noise is red. The latter case obtains in the AAM data. Nevertheless, reliable evidence for intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in AAM is detected. The interannual periods include a quasi-biennial one and an LF one, of 5 years, both related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. In the intraseasonal band, separate oscillations of about 48.5 and 51 days are ascertained.

Penland, Cecile↗

NASA NTRS1993

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Accuracy of Parameter Estimation in System Identification of Noisy Aircraft Load Measurement

This thesis focuses on the subject of the accuracy of parameter estimation and system identification techniques. Motivated by a complicated load measurement from NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, advanced system identification techniques are needed. The objective of this problem is to accurately predict the load experienced by the aircraft wing structure during flight determined from a set of calibrated load and gage response relationship. We can then model the problem as a black box input-output system identification from which the system parameter has to be estimated. Traditional LS (Least Square) techniques and the issues of noisy data and model accuracy are addressed. A statistical bound reflecting the change in residual is derived in order to understand the effects of the perturbations on the data. Due to the intrinsic nature of the LS problem, LS solution faces the dilemma of the trade off between model accuracy and noise sensitivity. A method of conflicting performance indices is presented, thus allowing us to improve the noise sensitivity while at the same time configuring the degredation of the model accuracy. SVD techniques for data reduction are studied and the equivalence of the Correspondence Analysis (CA) and Total Least Squares Criteria are proved. We also looked at nonlinear LS problems with NASA F-111 data set as an example. Conventional methods are neither easily applicable nor suitable for the specific load problem since the exact model of the system is unknown. Neural Network (NN) does not require prior information on the model of the system. This robustness motivated us to apply the NN techniques on our load problem. Simulation results for the NN methods used in both the single load and the 'warning signal' problems are both useful and encouraging. The performance of the NN (for single load estimate) is better than the LS approach, whereas no conventional approach was tried for the 'warning signals' problems. The NN design methodology is also presented. The use of SVD, CA and Collinearity Index methods are used to reduce the number of neurons in a layer.

Kong, Jeffrey↗

NASA NTRS1997

Magnetic flux in modeled magnetic clouds at 1 AU and some specific comparisons to associated photospheric flux

In order to better understand the solar origins of magnetic clouds, statistical distributions of the estimated axial magnetic flux of 30 magnetic clouds at 1 AU, separated according to their occurrence during the solar cycle, were obtained and a comparison was made of the magnetic flux of a magnetic cloud to the aggregate flux of apparently associated photospheric magnetic flux tubes, for some specific cases. The 30 magnetic clouds comprise 12 cases from WIND, and the remainder from IMP-8, earlier IMPs, the International Sun-Earth Explorer (ISEE) 3 and HELIOS. The total magnetic flux along the cloud axis was estimated using a constant alpha, cylindrical, force-free flux rope model to determine cloud diameter and axial magentic field strength. The distribution of magentic fluxes for the 30 clouds is shown to be in the form of a skewed Gaussian.

Lepping, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Variations in Sleep and Performance by Duty Start Time in Short Haul Operations

fatigue↗

NASA NTRS2014

Variation in Sleep Duration and Circadian Phase by Duty Start Time Among Short-Haul Commercial Airline Pilots

Prior studies have confirmed that commercial airline pilots experience circadian phase shifts and short sleep duration following travel with layovers in different time zones. Few studies have examined the impact of early and late starts on the sleep and circadian phase of airline pilots who return to their domicile after each duty period. We recruited 44 pilots (4 female) from a short-haul commercial airline to participate in a study examining sleep and circadian phase over four duty schedules (baseline, early starts, mid-day starts, late starts). Each duty schedule was five days long, separated by three rest days. Participants completed the rosters in the same order. Sleep outcomes were estimated using wrist-borne actigraphy (Actiware Software, Respironics, Bend, OR) and daily sleep diaries. Thirteen participants volunteered to collect urine samples for the assessment of 6-sulfatoxymelatonin (aMT6s). Urine samples were collected in four hourly bins during the day and eight-hourly bins during sleep episodes, for 24 hours immediately following each experimental duty schedule. The aMT6s results were fit to a cosine in order to obtain the acrophase to estimate circadian phase. Univariate statistics were calculated for acrophase changes, schedule start times and sleep times. All statistical analyses were computed using SAS software (Cary, IN).The mean duty start times varied as expected (baseline 10:17 [ 3:50], early starts 5:24 [ 0:30], mid-day starts 13:52 [ 1:20], late starts 16:33 [ 1:33]). Actigraphy-derived sleep duration varied between schedule types, with the shortest average sleep durations occurring during the early starts and night duty. Mean circadian phase was similar during each schedule type (baseline 26:14 [ 3:22], early starts 25:29 [2:13], mid-day starts 26:20 [ 3:16], late starts 25:49 [ 4:28]), but there were wide inter-individual differences in phase shifting from the beginning to the end of the study, with phase shifts ranging from a 5.98 hour phase advance to an 11.34 hour phase delay. Our preliminary findings suggest that early and late starts are associated with reduced sleep duration. The dispersion in inter-individual differences in circadian phase across shifting duty schedules should be further evaluated to determine how schedule-induced phase shifts may affect operational performance.

Flynn-Evans, Erin↗

DOE OSTI2020

A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California

In the Midway Sunset Oil Field in Central California, operators inject steam into the shallow diatomite formation to enhance heavy oil recovery through imbibition, wettability alteration, and viscosity reduction, among other mechanisms. The injected steam, however, does not always remain in the reservoir or return through the wells. In two zones in the study area, the steam comes out at the surface, creating sinkholes, seeps, and steam outlets. These phenomena, called “surface expressions,” pose safety and environmental hazards. Even though these surface expressions are a widespread problem in Central California, they are not well documented and understood. Possible causes of the surface expressions include: high injection pressure, structurally controlled flow patterns, leakage of steam through old improperly abandoned wells, high injection volumes, or flow along naturally occurring faults, among other possible factors. This work examines attributes of the zones with surface expressions in order to determine factors that may contribute to their occurrence. Spatial statistical analysis using logistic regression, random forests, and classification trees is used to explore the relationship between the surface expressions and geological and production-related attributes. The results point to a significant spatial correlation between the surface expressions and two predictors: concentration of plugged wells and geologic seal thickness. The results guide follow-up studies to further investigate the role of well abandonment and seal thickness in the occurrence of surface expressions.

02 PETROLEUM↗