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DOE OSTI2019

Adsorption of Tracer Gases in Geological Media: Experimental Benchmarking

The interaction of xenon with containment barriers can play a crucial role in the detection of underground nuclear explosions. Independent field experiments and laboratory-derived models have observed depressed surface level xenon concentrations and subsequently predicted geological capture rates. This work sought to experimentally verify those predictions by analyzing xenon transport though a two-bulb diffusion apparatus adapted for the study of geologic media. Novel to this work is the timescale over which these experiments were carried out, allowing the system to reach equilibrium, rather than relying on numerical models to treat the equilibrium concentration of each gas as a fit coefficient.

Byers, Maggie↗

DOE OSTI2022

Search for new physics in the lepton plus missing transverse momentum final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} =$ 13 TeV

A search for physics beyond the standard model (SM) in final states with an electron or muon and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis uses data from proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2016–2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb−1. No significant deviation from the SM prediction is observed. Model-independent limits are set on the production cross section of W’ bosons decaying into lepton-plus-neutrino final states. Within the framework of the sequential standard model, with the combined results from the electron and muon decay channels a W’ boson with mass less than 5.7 TeV is excluded at 95% confidence level. Results on a SM precision test, the determination of the oblique electroweak W parameter, are presented using LHC data for the first time. These results together with those from the direct W’ resonance search are used to extend existing constraints on composite Higgs scenarios. This is the first experimental exclusion on compositeness parameters using results from LHC data other than Higgs boson measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mechanisms behind the Springtime North Pacific ENSO Teleconnection Bias in Climate Models

Previous studies have shown that models overestimate the strength of ENSO teleconnections to the North Pacific during springtime, but the underlying reasons for this bias remain unknown. Here, in this work, the relative contributions from basic-state and thermodynamic/dynamic forcing factors are disentangled through idealized experiments with the Community Earth System Model and a range of stationary wave modeling experiments. It is revealed that in CESM1 the diabatic heating biases over the tropical Indian Ocean and tropical central-western Pacific jointly favor a cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation bias to occur in the North Pacific during the springtime of El Niño (La Niña) events. On one hand, the difference in the modeled and observed climatological basic state does not lead to the bias formation directly, as the diabatic heating biases are the primary cause. On the other hand, the springtime basic state is conducive to a more vigorous stationary wave response to the biased diabatic heating than the wintertime state, and this explains why the teleconnection bias occurs during springtime but not in winter. An iterative bias-correction approach is then implemented in the atmospheric model component of CESM1 to verify the linkage between the tropical diabatic heating bias and the teleconnection bias. Moreover, this explanation is shown to be relevant in other models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) as a strong relationship is found between biases in ENSO-related tropical central-western Pacific/Indian Ocean precipitation and North Pacific circulation across models in spring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2020

Commensuration Effects in Layered Nanoparticle Solids.

We have developed a hierarchical nanoparticle transport simulator (HINTS) and adapted it to study commensuration effects in two classes of nanoparticle (NP) solids: (1) a bilayer NP solid (BNS) with an energy offset and (2) a BNS as part of a field effect transistor (FET). HINTS integrates the ab initio characterization of single NPs with the phonon-assisted tunneling transition model of the NP-NP transitions into a kinetic Monte Carlo based simulation of the charge transport in NP solids. First, we studied a BNS with an interlayer energy offset Delta, possibly caused by a fixed electric field. Our results include the following. First, in the independent energy-offset model, we observed the emergence of commensuration effects when scanning the electron filling factor (FF) across integer values. These commensuration effects were profound as they reduced the mobility by several orders of magnitude. We analyzed these commensuration effects in a five-dimensional parameter space, as a function of the on-site charging energy E-C, energy offset Delta, disorder D, the electron FF, and temperature k(B)T. We demonstrated the complexity of our model by showing that at integer FFs commensuration effects are present in some regions of the parameter space, while they vanish in other regions, thus defining distinct dynamical phases of the model. We determined the phase boundaries between these dynamical phases. Second, using these results as a foundation, we shifted our focus to the experimentally much-studied NP-FETs. NP-FETs are also characterized by an interlayer energy offset Delta, which, in contrast to our first model, is set by the gate voltage V-G and thereby related to the electron FF. We repeated many of our simulations and again demonstrated the emergence of commensuration effects and distinct dynamical phases in these NP-FETs. Notably, the commensuration effects in the NP-FETs showed many similarities to those in the independent energy-offset BNS.

Qu, Luman↗

DOE OSTI2025

Addressing the impact of Lyman opacity in inference of divertor plasma conditions with 2D spectroscopic camera analysis of Balmer emission during detachment in JET L-mode plasmas

The impact of re-absorption of the deuterium Lyman series emission was addressed in inferring divertor plasma conditions from Balmer series emission with 2D spectroscopic camera analysis during detachment in JET L-mode plasmas. The previously presented methodology was amended by modifying the standard photon emission coefficients and ionization and recombination rate coefficients of the ADAS database to consider the re-population of excited states due to Lyman opacity. This resulted in the estimate for the atomic density near the outer strike point to decrease by up to 75% at the onset of detachment at strike point temperatures of T e,osp ≈ 1.0–3.0 eV with respect to the strongly overestimated previously obtained values, whereas the estimated electron temperature and density were unaffected by the opacity correction within the scatter of the data and only a moderate reduction by up to 20% was observed in the estimate for the molecularly induced fraction of the Balmer emission. No noticeable change was seen in the ionization rate, calculated from the estimated outer strike point conditions, due to the decrease in the atomic density estimate compensating for the increased values of the opacity-corrected ADAS rate coefficients for ionization. In detached conditions at T e,osp ≈ 0.5–1.0 eV, 25%–35% lower recombination rates were provided by the opacity-corrected model. The observed effects on the experimental analysis were supported by a corresponding synthetic analysis based on EDGE2D-EIRENE simulations.

Balmer emission↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

A derecho climatology (2004–2021) in the United States based on machine learning identification of bow echoes

Due to their persistent widespread severe winds, derechos pose significant threats to human safety and property, with impacts comparable to many tornadoes and hurricanes. Yet, automated detection of derechos remains challenging due to the absence of spatiotemporally continuous observations and the complex criteria employed to define the phenomenon. This study presents an objective derecho detection approach capable of automatically identifying derechos through both observations and model results. The approach is grounded in a physically based definition of derechos and integrates three algorithms: (1) the Python Flexible Object Tracker (PyFLEXTRKR) algorithm to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), (2) a semantic segmentation convolutional neural network to identify bow echoes, and (3) a comprehensive classification algorithm to detect derechos within MCS life cycles and distinguish derecho-producing from non-derecho-producing MCSs. Using this approach, we developed a novel high-resolution (4 km and hourly) observational dataset of derechos and accompanying derecho-producing MCSs over the United States east of the Rocky Mountains from 2004 to 2021. The dataset consists of two subsets based on different gust speed data sources and is analyzed to document the climatology of derechos in the United States. On average, 12–15 derechos are identified per year, aligning with previous estimations (∼6–21 events annually). The spatial distribution and seasonal variation patterns are consistent with prior studies, showing peak occurrences in the Great Plains and the Midwest during the warm season. Additionally, during the study period, derechos account for approximately 3.1 % of measured damaging gusts (≥25.93 m s−1) over the eastern United States. The dataset is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14835362 (Li et al., 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Estimating and Evaluating Roughness Length and Displacement Height in Heterogeneous Urban Environments

The roughness length (z 0 ) and displacement height (z d ) are essential surface-layer parameters in numerical models (e.g., weather, climate, wall-modeled LES, etc.). This work evaluates the consistency of z 0 and z d estimates from morphometric and anemometric methods using data from two eddy-covariance flux towers (AmeriFlux US-INg and US-INc) in Indianapolis, IN. Results show inconsistencies in estimated z 0 and z d values depending on the chosen method. The two evaluated anemometric methods estimate non-physical values of z d when compared to roughness elements surrounding both towers. Additionally, predictions of mean wind speed using surface-layer similarity theory with morphometric estimates exhibit a bias during near-neutral and stable conditions relative to observations. The overestimation of mean wind speed by surface layer similarity theory is consistent with previous observational and modeling studies in urban areas, suggesting that the application of similarity theories to urban environments may have limitations. Differentiation of vegetation from built structures appears to impact morphometric z 0 and z d estimates, particularly where vegetation is abundant; however, it has little impact on correcting biases in the similarity theory. Specifically, we find that existing similarity theories using morphometric estimates underestimate integral velocity and length scales, and the degree of underestimation depends on the stability conditions. Accounting for the degree of anisotropy in surface-layer turbulence helps reduce the biases between similarity theories and observations during unstable conditions, but not in near-neutral cases. Future work is needed to identify the cause of such biases for near-neutral conditions.

Aerodynamic roughness length↗

DOE OSTI2021

Resolving the ($\mathscr{g}$-2)$_μ$ discrepancy with $\mathcal{F}$–SU(5) intersecting D-branes

A discrepancy between the measured anomalous magnetic moment of the muon (g - 2) μ and computed Standard Model value now stands at a combined 4.2σ following experiments at Brookhaven National Lab (BNL) and the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL). A solution to the disagreement is uncovered in flipped SU(5) with additional TeV-Scale vector-like 10 +$\bar{10}$ multiplets and charged singlet derived from local F-Theory, collectively referred to as $\mathcal {F}$-SU(5). Here we engage general No-Scale supersymmetry (SUSY) breaking in $\mathcal {F}$-SU(5) D-brane model building to alleviate the (g-2)μ. tension between the Standard Model and observations. A robust Δa μ (SUSY) is realized via mixing of M 5 and M 1X at the secondary SU(5) x U(1) X unification scale in $\mathcal {F}$-SU(5) emanating from SU(5) breaking and U(1) X flux effects. Calculations unveil Δa μ (SUSY) = 19.0-22.3 x 10 -10 for gluino masses of M($\tilde{g}$ = 2.25-2.56 TeV nd higgsino dark matter, aptly residing within the BNL+FNAL 1σ mean. This (g – 2)μ favorable region of the model space also generates the correct light Higgs boson mass and branching ratios of companion rare decay processes, and is further consistent with all LHC Run 2 constraints. Finally, we also examine the heavy SUSY Higgs boson in light of recent LHC searches for an extended Higgs sector.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Search for decays of the 125 GeV Higgs boson into a Z boson and a $\rho$ or $\phi$ meson

Decays of the 125 GeV Higgs boson into a Z boson and a ρ$^{0}$(770) or ϕ(1020) meson are searched for using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV. The analysed data set corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{−1}$. Events are selected in which the Z boson decays into a pair of electrons or a pair of muons, and the ρ and ϕ mesons decay into pairs of pions and kaons, respectively. No significant excess above the background model is observed. As different polarization states are possible for the decay products of the Z boson and ρ or ϕ mesons, affecting the signal acceptance, scenarios in which the decays are longitudinally or transversely polarized are considered. Upper limits at the 95% confidence level on the Higgs boson branching fractions into Zρ and Zϕ are determined to be 1.04–1.31% and 0.31–0.40%, respectively, where the ranges reflect the considered polarization scenarios; these values are 740–940 and 730–950 times larger than the respective standard model expectations. These results constitute the first experimental limits on the two decay channels.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Global High‐Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database Using Satellite‐Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking

Abstract A new methodology is developed to construct a global (60°S–60°N) long‐term (2000–2019) high‐resolution (∼10‐km h) mesoscale convective system (MCS) database by tracking MCS jointly using geostationary satellite infrared brightness temperature ( T b ) and precipitation feature (PF) characteristics from the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM precipitation data sets. Independent validation shows that the satellite‐based MCS data set is able to reproduce important MCS statistics derived from ground‐based radar network observations in the United States and China. We show that by carefully considering key PF characteristics in addition to T b signatures, the new method significantly improves upon previous T b ‐only methods in detecting MCSs in the midlatitudes for all seasons. Results show that MCSs account for over 50% of annual total rainfall across most of the tropical belt and in selected regions of the midlatitudes, with a strong seasonality over many regions of the globe. The tracking database allows Lagrangian aspects such as MCS lifetime and translational speed and direction to be analyzed. The longest‐lived MCSs preferentially occur over the subtropical oceans. The land MCSs have higher cloud‐tops associated with more intense convection, and oceanic MCSs have much higher rainfall production. While MCSs are observed in many regions of the globe, there are fundamental differences in their dynamic and thermodynamic structures that warrant a better understanding of processes that control their evolution. This global database provides significant opportunities for observational and modeling studies of MCSs, their characteristics, and roles in regional and global water and energy cycles, as well as their hydrologic and other impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

System size and energy dependence of the mean transverse momentum fluctuations at the LHC

Event-by-event fluctuations of the event-wise mean transverse momentum, $\langle$p T $\rangle$, of charged particles produced in proton–proton (pp) collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 5.02 TeV, Xe–Xe collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.44 TeV, and Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV are studied using the ALICE detector based on the integral correlator $\langle$$\langle$Δp T Δp T $\rangle$$\rangle$. The correlator strength is found to decrease monotonically with increasing produced charged-particle multiplicity measured at midrapidity in all three systems. In Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions, the multiplicity dependence of the correlator deviates significantly from a simple power-law scaling as well as from the predictions of the HIJING and AMPT models. The observed deviation from power-law scaling is expected from transverse radial flow in semicentral to central Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions. In pp collisions, the correlation strength is also studied by classifying the events based on the transverse spherocity, S 0 , of the particle production at midrapidity, used as a proxy for the presence of a pronounced back-to-back jet topology. Low-spherocity (jetty) events feature a larger correlation strength than those with high spherocity (isotropic). The strength and multiplicity dependence of jetty and isotropic events are well reproduced by calculations with the PYTHIA 8 and EPOS LHC models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of toroidal rotation on the resistive ballooning modes in ASDEX Upgrade tokamak

Abstract In this work, we investigate the behavior of instabilities appearing between type-I edge localized modes (ELMs), with increasing neutral beam injection (NBI) power concomitant increase in toroidal rotation, and compare it to the modeling result of the linear magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) code CASTOR3D. An injection of one NBI beam, increasing toroidal rotation, results in the mode slowing down from 12 kHz to 7 kHz, and its associated radial displacement decreases from 5 mm to 3.5 mm. In addition, modes shift radially outwards towards higher q , decreasing their poloidal mode numbers. The mode velocity is measured to be close to the E × B velocity with significant uncertainties. Through a set of CASTOR3D simulations with varying profiles, resistivity has been identified as the primary contributor to the growth rates. Only a small stabilizing effect due to toroidal rotation has been observed. While experimental results show a decrease of mode frequency with rotation, the opposite trend is observed in modeling. Reasons for discrepancies between modeling and experiment are discussed. Nevertheless, a main contributor to the mode frequency has been identified to be rotation velocity. CASTOR3D classifies modes as resistive ballooning modes as they do not appear unstable in ideal MHD.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variability in modelled reservoir greenhouse gas emissions: comparison of select US hydropower reservoirs against global estimates

Abstract Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from reservoirs have most often been evaluated on a global extent through areal scaling or linear-regression models. These models typically rely on a limited number of characteristics such as age, size, and average temperature to estimate per reservoir or areal flux. Such approaches may not be sufficient for describing conditions at all types of reservoirs. Emissions from hydropower reservoirs have received increasing attention as industry and policy makers seek to better understand the role of hydropower in sustainable energy solutions. In the United States (US), hydropower reservoirs span a wide range of climate regions and have diverse design and operational characteristics compared to those most heavily represented in model literature (i.e., large, tropical reservoirs). It is not clear whether estimates based on measurements and modeling of other subsets of reservoirs describe the diverse types of hydropower reservoirs in the US. We applied the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (G‐res) emissions model to 28 hydropower reservoirs located in a variety of ecological, hydrological, and climate settings that represent the range of sizes and types of facilities within the US hydropower fleet. The dominant pathways for resulting GHG emissions estimates in the case-study reservoirs were diffusion of carbon dioxide, followed by methane ebullition. Among these case-study reservoirs, total post-impoundment areal flux of carbon ranges from 84 to 767 mgCm −2 d −1 , which is less variable than what has been reported through measurements at other US and global reservoirs. The net GHG reservoir footprint was less variable and towards the lower end of the range observed from modeling larger global reservoirs, with a range of 138 to 1,052 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 , while the global study reported a range of 115 to 145,472 g CO 2 eq m −2 y −1 . High variation in emissions normalized with respect to area and generation highlights the need to be cautious when using area or generation in predicting or communicating emissions footprints for reservoirs relative to those of other energy sources, especially given that many of the hydropower reservoirs in the US serve multiple purposes beyond power generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integrated Research Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint Activity (Final Report 2023)

The complexity of scientific pursuits is increasing rapidly with aspects that require dynamic integration of experiment, observation, theory, modeling, simulation, visualization, machine learning (ML), artificial intelligence (AI), and analysis. Research projects across the Department of Energy (DOE) are increasingly data and compute intensive. Innovative research teams are accelerating the pace of discovery by using high-performance computational and data tools in their research workflows and leveraging multiple research infrastructures. Additionally, several recent high-level U.S. government reports underscore the necessity of a new advanced computing ecosystem for international competitiveness and national security. International competitors are moving forward with major research infrastructure integration efforts that seek to capture a competitive advantage in the global innovation race. Owing to its unparalleled constellation of world-class experimental and observational facilities and high-performance and extreme-scale computational, data, and networking infrastructure, DOE is positioned to be a global leader in this new era of integrated science. However, this new integration paradigm will demand continuing evolution to ensure the U.S. remains a global leader in research and innovation. The DOE Office of Science (SC) has seized on the strategic importance of integration and has adopted a vision for Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI): To empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation. To respond to the evolving computational requirements of research and the competitive international innovation landscape, experimental facilities could be connected with high performance computing resources for near real-time analysis, and resources should be provided for merging enormous and diverse data for AI/ML techniques and analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Combining Emergent Constraints for Climate Sensitivity

A method is proposed for combining information from several emergent constraints into a probabilistic estimate for a climate sensitivity proxy Y such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The method is based on fitting a multivariate Gaussian PDF for Y and the emergent constraints using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs); it can be viewed as a form of multiple linear regression of Y on the constraints. The method accounts for uncertainties in sampling this multidimensional PDF with a small number of models, for observational uncertainties in the constraints, and for overconfidence about the correlation of the constraints with the climate sensitivity. Its general form (Method C) accounts for correlations between the constraints. Method C becomes less robust when some constraints are too strongly related to each other; this can be mitigated using regularization approaches such as ridge regression. An illuminating special case, Method U, neglects any correlations between constraints except through their mutual relationship to the climate proxy; it is more robust to small GCM sample size and is appealingly interpretable. These methods are applied to ECS and the climate feedback parameter using a previously published set of 11 possible emergent constraints derived from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ±2σ posterior range of ECS for Method C with no overconfidence adjustment is 4.3 ± 0.7 K. For Method U with a large overconfidence adjustment, it is 4.0 ± 1.3 K. This study adds confidence to past findings that most constraints predict higher climate sensitivity than the CMIP mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗