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DOE OSTI2026

Mechanistic Modeling of TEG Dehydrator Emissions in Oil and Gas Industry

This work presents a mechanistic modeling approach for simulating methane emissions from triethylene glycol (TEG) dehydrators used in oil & gas (O&G) operations. The model was developed as a modular component of the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) tool, incorporating species-specific absorption and emission dynamics through two-level, second-order polynomial regression (PR) models trained on ProMax simulation data: (1) species-level regression models that track the transfer rates of individual gas species within the dehydrator unit streams, and (2) outlet flow stream regression models that predict the fraction of inlet gas distributed among the outlet streams of the dehydrator unit. These behaviors were characterized over a range of glycol circulation ratios, wet gas pressures, and temperatures. The model was validated using root mean square error (RMSE) analysis. The species-level PR achieved low root mean square error (RMSE) values (<0.03) for light hydrocarbon species across all dehydrator components, ranging from 0.0009 for methane to 0.029 for normal pentane. Similarly, the outlet-level PR yielded RMSE values below 0.002 for the dry gas fraction, 0.001 for the flash tank fraction, and 0.002 for the still vent fraction, demonstrating strong agreement between predicted and reference ProMax values. When deployed at field facilities, the model significantly improved MAES-simulated dehydrator emissions, revealing that gas-assisted glycol pump emissions are the dominant contributors to both dehydrator-level and site-level methane emissions under uncontrolled conditions. Further analysis of the 154 dehydrator units reported by operators under the AMI 2024 project showed that 54 units (31%) used gas-driven glycol pumps, of which 6 units (11%) operated with uncontrolled flash tanks, and 22 units (40.7%) were identified as potentially oversized. Of the six dehydrator units with uncontrolled gas-assisted pumps, pump emissions accounted for 90.25% of total dehydrator emissions and 63.10% of total site-level emissions. These findings highlight substantial opportunities for emissions mitigation through equipment upgrades.

MAES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mechanistic insights into carbon–carbon coupling on NiAu and PdAu single-atom alloys

Carbon–carbon coupling is an important step in many catalytic reactions, and performing sp 3 –sp 3 carbon–carbon coupling heterogeneously is particularly challenging. It has been reported that PdAu single-atom alloy (SAA) model catalytic surfaces are able to selectively couple methyl groups, producing ethane from methyl iodide. In this work, we extend this study to NiAu SAAs and find that Ni atoms in Au are active for C–I cleavage and selective sp 3 –sp 3 carbon–carbon coupling to produce ethane. Furthermore, we perform ab initio kinetic Monte Carlo simulations that include the effect of the iodine atom, which was previously considered a bystander species. We find that model NiAu surfaces exhibit a similar chemistry to PdAu, but the reason for the similarity is due to the role the iodine atoms play in terms of blocking the Ni atom active sites. Specifically, on NiAu SAAs, the iodine atoms outcompete the methyl groups for occupancy of the Ni sites leaving the Me groups on Au, while on PdAu SAAs, the binding strengths of methyl groups and iodine atoms at the Pd atom active site are more similar. These simulations shed light on the mechanism of this important sp 3 –sp 3 carbon–carbon coupling chemistry on SAAs. Furthermore, we discuss the effect of the iodine atoms on the reaction energetics and make an analogy between the effect of iodine as an active site blocker on this model heterogeneous catalyst and homogeneous catalysts in which ligands must detach in order for the active site to be accessed by the reactants.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Recent progress in atomic-scale controlled plasma processing

Atomic-scale control in plasma processing is becoming increasingly critical for fabricating of advanced semiconductor devices, particularly as the industry shifts toward three-dimensional (3D) architectures and high-aspect-ratio (HAR) structures. This review presents a comprehensive overview of recent developments in atomic-scale controlled plasma processes, organized along two key directions: the hierarchical structure of plasma–surface interactions and the generational evolution of atomic layer processing (ALP) technologies. We examined the gas phase, where molecular design enables selective generation of ions and radicals; the boundary layer, where transport phenomena govern species delivery into nanoscale features, and the surface, where temperature-dependent reactions and cyclic processing determine etching selectivity and precision. Building on this foundation, we outline five generations of ALP—from thermal atomic layer deposition to transport-aware, temporally and structurally decoupled processes—highlighting the increasing sophistication of process control. The review further explores the transition from empirical recipe development to science-based, data-driven methodologies. By integrating quantum-chemical modeling, advanced diagnostics, and machine learning, we demonstrated how predictive models can link plasma species composition to process outcomes, enabling autonomous and adaptive control strategies. Finally, this review discusses the broader societal implications of plasma process innovation through the E4 quartet: energy and resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, evolutionary advancement, and educational promotion. These principles guide the development of sustainable and intelligent atomic-scale manufacturing technologies that are not only technically advanced but also socially responsible.

Ishikawa, Kenji [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparative Study on the Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Adsorption Energies for Ring and Chain Species on Metal Catalyst Surfaces

Computation of adsorption and transition state energies for a large number of surface intermediates for numerous active site models pose significant computational overhead in computational screening of catalysts. Machine learning (ML) techniques can be used to predict part of these energies. To predict the energies, ML models need to be fed appropriate metal and species descriptors. For complex surface chemistries, the structures of the intermediate species can vary greatly. In this paper, working with the hydrodeoxygenation of succinic acid on six different metal surfaces, we have studied the effect of linear and non-linear ML models used along with pen-and-paper based species descriptors and two categories of metal descriptors on two different categories of intermediate species: chain and ring. More specifically, our computations include the prediction of chain species when trained on only chain species and also when trained on both chain and ring species. Similar computations were performed for predictions of ring species. In each case, results of linear ML models were compared with kernel based non-linear models. Our results indicate that ring species data does not improve the prediction of chain species. Similarly, chain species data does not improve the prediction of ring species. The use of non-linear ML models, however, did help to minimize the prediction errors compared to the linear models. Furthermore, the study also shows that electronic or adsorption energy based metal descriptors along with bond count based species fingerprints can achieve a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.2 eV for complex chain molecules when used with an appropriate machine learning model.

Adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2022

An automated workflow that generates atom mappings for large‐scale metabolic models and its application to Arabidopsis thaliana

SUMMARY Quantification of reaction fluxes of metabolic networks can help us understand how the integration of different metabolic pathways determines cellular functions. Yet, intracellular fluxes cannot be measured directly but are estimated with metabolic flux analysis (MFA), which relies on the patterns of isotope labeling of metabolites in the network. The application of MFA also requires a stoichiometric model with atom mappings that are currently not available for the majority of large‐scale metabolic network models, particularly of plants. While automated approaches such as the Reaction Decoder Toolkit (RDT) can produce atom mappings for individual reactions, tracing the flow of individual atoms of the entire reactions across a metabolic model remains challenging. Here we establish an automated workflow to obtain reliable atom mappings for large‐scale metabolic models by refining the outcome of RDT, and apply the workflow to metabolic models of Arabidopsis thaliana . We demonstrate the accuracy of RDT through a comparative analysis with atom mappings from a large database of biochemical reactions, MetaCyc. We further show the utility of our automated workflow by simulating 15 N isotope enrichment and identifying nitrogen (N)‐containing metabolites which show enrichment patterns that are informative for flux estimation in future 15 N‐MFA studies of A. thaliana . The automated workflow established in this study can be readily expanded to other species for which metabolic models have been established and the resulting atom mappings will facilitate MFA and graph‐theoretic structural analyses with large‐scale metabolic networks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Virtual Observatory Service TheoSSA: Establishing a Database of Synthetic Stellar Flux Standards I. NLTE Spectral Analysis of the DA-Type White Dwarf G191-B2B ,,,****

Hydrogen-rich, DA-type white dwarfs are particularly suited as primary standard stars for flux calibration. State-of-the-art NLTE models consider opacities of species up to trans-iron elements and provide reliable synthetic stellar-atmosphere spectra to compare with observations. Aims. We will establish a database of theoretical spectra of stellar flux standards that are easily accessible via a web interface. Methods. In the framework of the Virtual Observatory, the German Astrophysical Virtual Observatory developed the registered service TheoSSA. It provides easy access to stellar spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and is intended to ingest SEDs calculated by any model-atmosphere code. In case of the DA white dwarf G191−B2B, we demonstrate that the model reproduces not only its overall continuum shape but also the numerous metal lines exhibited in its ultraviolet spectrum. Results. TheoSSA is in operation and contains presently a variety of SEDs for DA-type white dwarfs. It will be extended in the near future and can host SEDs of all primary and secondary flux standards. The spectral analysis of G191−B2B has shown that our hydrostatic models reproduce the observations best at Teff =60 000 +/- 2000K and log g=7.60 +/- 0.05.We newly identified Fe vi, Ni vi, and Zn iv lines. For the first time, we determined the photospheric zinc abundance with a logarithmic mass fraction of −4.89 (7.5 × solar). The abundances of He (upper limit), C, N, O, Al, Si, O, P, S, Fe, Ni, Ge, and Sn were precisely determined. Upper abundance limits of about 10% solar were derived for Ti, Cr, Mn, and Co. Conclusions. The TheoSSA database of theoretical SEDs of stellar flux standards guarantees that the flux calibration of all astronomical data and cross-calibration between different instruments can be based on the same models and SEDs calculated with different model-atmosphere codes and are easy to compare.

Observatory↗

NASA NTRS1987

The use of atmospheric measurements to constrain model predictions of ozone change from chlorine perturbations

Atmospheric photochemistry models have been used to predict the sensitivity of the ozone layer to various perturbations. These same models also predict concentrations of chemical species in the present day atmosphere which can be compared to observations. Model results for both present day values and sensitivity to perturbation depend upon input data for reaction rates, photodissociation rates, and boundary conditions. A method of combining the results of a Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis with the existing set of present atmospheric species measurements is developed. The method is used to examine the range of values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine perturbations that is possible within the currently accepted ranges for input data. It is found that model runs which predict ozone column losses much greater than 10 percent as a result of present fluorocarbon fluxes produce concentrations and column amounts in the present atmosphere which are inconsistent with the measurements for ClO, HCl, NO, NO2, and HNO3.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Ecological niche models display nonlinear relationships with abundance and demographic performance across the latitudinal distribution of Astragalus utahensis (Fabaceae)

Abstract The potential for ecological niche models (ENMs) to accurately predict species' abundance and demographic performance throughout their geographic distributions remains a topic of substantial debate in ecology and biogeography. Few studies simultaneously examine the relationship between ENM predictions of environmental suitability and both a species' abundance and its demographic performance, particularly across its entire geographic distribution. Yet, studies of this type are essential for understanding the extent to which ENMs are a viable tool for identifying areas that may promote high abundance or performance of a species or how species might respond to future climate conditions. In this study, we used an ensemble ecological niche model to predict climatic suitability for the perennial forb Astragalus utahensis across its geographic distribution. We then examined relationships between projected climatic suitability and field‐based measures of abundance, demographic performance, and forecasted stochastic population growth (λ s ). Predicted climatic suitability showed a J‐shaped relationship with A. utahensis abundance, where low‐abundance populations were associated with low‐to‐intermediate suitability scores and abundance increased sharply in areas of high predicted climatic suitability. A similar relationship existed between climatic suitability and λ s from the center to the northern edge of the latitudinal distribution. Patterns such as these, where density or demographic performance only increases appreciably beyond some threshold of climatic suitability, support the contention that ENM‐predicted climatic suitability does not necessarily represent a reliable predictor of abundance or performance across large geographic regions.

Baer, Kathryn C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Specialization Restricts the Evolutionary Paths Available to Yeast Sugar Transporters

Functional innovation at the protein level is a key source of evolutionary novelties. The constraints on functional innovations are likely to be highly specific in different proteins, which are shaped by their unique histories and the extent of global epistasis that arises from their structures and biochemistries. These contextual nuances in the sequence–function relationship have implications both for a basic understanding of the evolutionary process and for engineering proteins with desirable properties. Here, we have investigated the molecular basis of novel function in a model member of an ancient, conserved, and biotechnologically relevant protein family. These Major Facilitator Superfamily sugar porters are a functionally diverse group of proteins that are thought to be highly plastic and evolvable. By dissecting a recent evolutionary innovation in an α-glucoside transporter from the yeast Saccharomyces eubayanus, we show that the ability to transport a novel substrate requires high-order interactions between many protein regions and numerous specific residues proximal to the transport channel. To reconcile the functional diversity of this family with the constrained evolution of this model protein, we generated new, state-of-the-art genome annotations for 332 Saccharomycotina yeast species spanning ~400 My of evolution. By integrating phylogenetic and phenotypic analyses across these species, we show that the model yeast α-glucoside transporters likely evolved from a multifunctional ancestor and became subfunctionalized. The accumulation of additive and epistatic substitutions likely entrenched this subfunction, which made the simultaneous acquisition of multiple interacting substitutions the only reasonably accessible path to novelty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

A finite difference method for predicting supersonic turbulent boundary layer flows with tangential slot injection

An implicit finite difference method has been applied to tangential slot injection into supersonic turbulent boundary layer flows. In addition, the effects induced by the interaction between the boundary layer displacement thickness and the external pressure field are considered. In the present method, three different eddy viscosity models have been used to specify the turbulent momentum exchange. One model depends on the species concentration profile and the species conservation equation has been included in the system of governing partial differential equations. Results are compared with experimental data at stream Mach numbers of 2.4 and 6.0 and with results of another finite difference method. Good agreement was generally obtained for the reduction of wall skin friction with slot injection and with experimental Mach number and pitot pressure profiles. Calculations with the effects of pressure interaction included showed these effects to be smaller than effects of changing eddy viscosity models.

Miner, E. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aerothermal Analysis of the Dragonfly Titan Entry

The Dragonfly mission will send a rotorcraft lander to the surface of Saturn’s moon Titan as part of the New-Frontiers program. This will be the first spacecraft to land on Titan since the Huygens probe’s descent in January of 2005 and only the second spacecraft to enter Titan’s atmosphere. The Dragonfly entry capsule is significantly larger than the Huygens probe and will experience higher aerothermal environments. This poster will provide an overview of the aerothermodynamic models used in the Dragonfly aeroshell design process. Titan provides a unique entry environment that has several fundamental differences from the environments at the more common entry destinations of Earth and Mars. The lack of atmospheric oxygen significantly reduces heatshield recession (expected to be negligible), which simplifies material response analysis but also reduces the efficiency of the thermal protection system. The atmos-phere is composed of mostly nitrogen and trace amounts of methane. During hypersonic entry this methane dissociates and leads to the formation of the molecule CN, which is known to radiate strongly in the shock layer. Current Dragonfly heating predictions estimate that radiation contributes about 50% of the total heat flux along the forebody and up to 90% on the aftbody, making radiation a key element of aerothermal analysis. To properly address the importance of radiation, a unique radiative-heating correlation was developed that incorporates normal-shock equilibrium chemistry predictions based on work from the Mars 2020 program. These new heating correlations agree well with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) predictions and enable large-scale trajectory analyses by providing rapid heating predictions along candidate trajectories. Dragonfly aerothermal environments are generated with the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) finite-volume Navier-Stokes solver alongside the Nonequilibrium Radiative Transport and Spectra (NEQAIR) radiation transport code. DPLR produces shock-aligned flowfields that incorporate the effects of both chemical and thermal nonequilibrium while NEQAIR solves the radiation transport equations along lines-of-sight through the flowfield solutions to predict the radiative heating on the aeroshell. Titan’s atmosphere produces complex thermal and chemical nonequilibria and so classical radiation approximations that extrapolate from a single line-of-sight, such as the Tangent-Slab method, were found to overpredict peak radiative heat fluxes by 10-20%. Therefore, all radiative heating is directly calculated using 3-D transport for both the forebody and aftbody to reduce unnecessary conservatism. A 21-species finite-rate chemistry model, including electrons and ionized species, is used in the CFD to ensure accurate vehicle heating predictions (the level of ionization is particularly for accurate radiative flux predictions). This poster will cover: 1) The models and assumptions used to simulate entry into Titan’s atmosphere, 2) Dragonfly aerothermal engineering correlations alongside statistical heating values, and 3) Driving aerothermal considerations for a Titan entry such as CN formation and radiation-flowfield coupling.

EDL↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Reversible Volume Change in Automotive Battery Cells with Porous Silicon Oxide-Graphite Composite Anodes

Automotive battery manufacturers are working to improve the individual cell and overall pack design by increasing durability, performance, and range, while reducing cost, and active material volume change is a key aspect that needs to be considered during this design process. Recently, silicon oxide-graphite composite anodes are being explored to increase total anode capacity while maintaining a tolerable amount of cell level reversible volume expansion due to the relatively lower reversible volume change of the silicon oxide compared to pure battery grade or metallurgical grade silicon. To predict the blended anode response and contribution to the overall cell volume change, we integrated the mechanical behavior of the individual active materials with the multi-species, multi-reaction model to predict the state-of-lithiation of the active materials in the cell at a given potential. The resulting simulations illustrate the tradeoff in volume change between the silicon oxide and the graphite during cell operation. This type of modeling approach will allow designers to virtually consider the impact of cell level and pack level design changes on overall system mechanical performance for automotive and grid storage applications, namely that relatively small addition of silicon containing materials can drive a significant increase in the volume change at the cell level, as demonstrated by the 5 wt% addition of silicon oxide accounting for half of the overall volume change in the cell.

Garrick, Taylor R. (ORCID:0000000322518129)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-physics modeling of tungsten collector probe samples during the WEST C4 He campaign

Abstract We describe the results of a multi-scale, multi-physics modeling assessment of SOLPS-ITER, hPIC2, RustBCA and Xolotl, in which five single-crystal tungsten (W) samples were placed in a reciprocating collector probe and exposed to helium (He) plasma in the WEST fusion device. In our models, we considered a pure (100 %) He plasma, as well as one with oxygen (O) present (95% He 5% O) corresponding to the impurity concentration estimated during the C4 He campaign in WEST. Our SOLPS simulations approximately match experimental reciprocating Langmuir probe plasma measurements of plasma density and temperature. Using these plasma parameters as input, hPIC2 and RustBCA predict that the presence of oxygen impurities lead to a 15%–20% decrease in ion and heat fluxes to the surface, and an order of magnitude higher sputtering yields (compared with a pure He plasma). Xolotl predictions for the response of tungsten to plasma surface interactions (PSIs) agree with experimental LAMS analysis, and indicate large near-surface He concentrations, which quickly decay with depth. Our model also shows an increasing role of erosion—in removing the near-surface He—with time. Overall, slightly higher retention is predicted for tungsten exposed to a pure He plasma, with the largest differences in the near-surface gas content caused by the large oxygen-induced erosion. This highlights the important role that impurities play in PSI. Therefore, future work will focus on providing a fully self-consistent description of oxygen (and oxides, etc.) in our models, through multi-species implementation in GITR and inclusion of oxygen and tungsten oxide formation in Xolotl.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Gas Dynamics and Kinetics in the Cometary Coma: Theory and Observations

Our ability to describe the physical state of the expanding coma affects fundamental areas of cometary study both directly and indirectly. In order to convert measured abundances of gas species in the coma to gas production rates, models for the distribution and kinematics of gas species in the coma are required. Conversely, many different types of observations, together with laboratory data and theory, are still required to determine coma model attributes and parameters. Accurate relative and absolute gas production rates and their variations with time and from comet to comet are crucial to our basic understanding of the composition and structure of cometary nuclei and their place in the solar system. We review the gas dynamics and kinetics of cometary comae from both theoretical and observational perspectives, which are important for understanding the wide variety of physical conditions that are encountered.

Combi, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Time-Dependent Chemistry of Cometary Debris in the Solar Corona

Recent improvements in solar observations have greatly progressed the study of sungrazing comets. They can now be imaged along the entirety of their perihelion passage through the solar atmosphere, revealing details of their composition and structure not measurable through previous observations in the less volatile region of the orbit further from the solar surface. Such comets are also unique probes of the solar atmosphere. The debris deposited by sungrazers is rapidly ionized and subsequently influenced by the ambient magnetic field. Measuring the spectral signature of the deposited material highlights the topology of the magnetic field and can reveal plasma parameters such as the electron temperature and density. Recovering these variables from the observable data requires a model of the interaction of the cometary species with the atmosphere through which they pass. The present paper offers such a model by considering the time-dependent chemistry of sublimated cometary species as they interact with the solar radiation field and coronal plasma. We expand on a previous simplified model by considering the fully time-dependent solutions of the emitting species' densities. To compare with observations, we consider a spherically symmetric expansion of the sublimated material into the corona and convert the time-dependent ion densities to radial profiles. Using emissivities from the CHIANTI database and plasma parameters derived from a magnetohydrodynamic simulation leads to a spatially dependent emission spectrum that can be directly compared with observations. We find our simulated spectra to be consistent with observation.

sun: corona↗

NASA NTRS1980

The influence of NO and ClO variations at twilight on the interpretation of solar occultation measurements

Measurement of short-lived photochemically-produced species in the stratosphere by solar occultation is difficult because the rapid variation of such species near the terminator introduces ambiguities in interpreting the measured absorption in terms of meaningful atmospheric abundances. These variations produce tangent path concentrations that are asymmetric relative to the tangent point, as opposed to the symmetrical distribution usually assumed in most inversion algorithms. Neglect of this asymmetry may yield an inverted profile that deviates significantly from the true sunset/sunrise profile. In the present paper, the influence of this effect on solar occultation measurements of ClO and NO is examined. The results show that average inhomogeneity factors, which measure the concentration variation along the tangent path and which can be calculated from a photochemical model, can indicate which species require more careful data analysis.

Boughner, R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Saccharomycotina yeasts defy long-standing macroecological patterns

The Saccharomycotina yeasts (“yeasts” hereafter) are a fungal clade of scientific, economic, and medical significance. Yeasts are highly ecologically diverse, found across a broad range of environments in every biome and continent on earth; however, little is known about what rules govern the macroecology of yeast species and their range limits in the wild. Here, we trained machine learning models on 12,816 terrestrial occurrence records and 96 environmental variables to infer global distribution maps at ~1 km2 resolution for 186 yeast species (~15% of described species from 75% of orders) and to test environmental drivers of yeast biogeography and macroecology. We found that predicted yeast diversity hotspots occur in mixed montane forests in temperate climates. Diversity in vegetation type and topography were some of the greatest predictors of yeast species richness, suggesting that microhabitats and environmental clines are key to yeast diversity. We further found that range limits in yeasts are significantly influenced by carbon niche breadth and range overlap with other yeast species, with carbon specialists and species in high-diversity environments exhibiting reduced geographic ranges. Finally, yeasts contravene many long-standing macroecological principles, including the latitudinal diversity gradient, temperature-dependent species richness, and a positive relationship between latitude and range size (Rapoport’s rule). These results unveil how the environment governs the global diversity and distribution of species in the yeast subphylum. These high-resolution models of yeast species distributions will facilitate the prediction of economically relevant and emerging pathogenic species under current and future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗