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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Coarse-grained model of water diffusion and proton conductivity in hydrated polyelectrolyte membrane

Using dissipative particle dynamics (DPD), we simulate nanoscale segregation, water diffusion, and proton conductivity in hydrated sulfonated polystyrene (sPS). We employ a novel model [Lee et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 11(9), 4395-4403 (2015)] that incorporates protonation/deprotonation equilibria into DPD simulations. The polymer and water are modeled by coarse-grained beads interacting via short-range soft repulsion and smeared charge electrostatic potentials. The proton is introduced as a separate charged bead that forms dissociable Morse bonds with the base beads representing water and sulfonate anions. Morse bond formation and breakup artificially mimics the Grotthuss mechanism of proton hopping between the bases. The DPD model is parameterized by matching the proton mobility in bulk water, dissociation constant of benzenesulfonic acid, and liquid-liquid equilibrium of water-ethylbenzene solutions. The DPD simulations semi-quantitatively predict nanoscale segregation in the hydrated sPS into hydrophobic and hydrophilic subphases, water self-diffusion, and proton mobility. As the hydration level increases, the hydrophilic subphase exhibits a percolation transition from isolated water clusters to a 3D network. The analysis of hydrophilic subphase connectivity and water diffusion demonstrates the importance of the dynamic percolation effect of formation and breakup of temporary junctions between water clusters. The proposed DPD model qualitatively predicts the ratio of proton to water self-diffusion and its dependence on the hydration level that is in reasonable agreement with experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Continental-Scale Estimate of Soil Organic Carbon Change at NEON Sites and Their Environmental and Edaphic Controls

Current carbon cycle models focus on the effects of climate and land-use change on primary productivity and microbial-mineral dependent carbon turnover in the topsoil, while less attention has been paid to vertical soil processes and soil-dependent response to land-use change along the profile. In this study, a spatial-temporal analysis was used to estimate soil organic carbon (SOC) change in topsoil/A horizon and subsoil/B horizon at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) sites, USA over 30 years. To separate the effects of land-use, environmental, and edaphic factors on SOC change, space-for-time substitution was used in combination with the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm and Structural Equation Modeling. Results showed that (a) under natural vegetation, Spodosols and Inceptisols found in the eastern NEON sites had substantial topsoil SOC accumulation (+0.4 to +1.2 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ), while Inceptisols and Andisols in the west had a comparable magnitude of topsoil SOC loss (–0.5 to –1.8 Mg C ha –1 year –1 ); (b) Mollisols and Alfisols in the Central Plains sites were susceptible to significant SOC loss under farming and grazing; (c) Runoff/erosion and leaching potential, vertical translocation, and mineral sorption were the most important factors controlling SOC variation across the NEON sites. Our work could be used to parameterize ecosystem models simulating SOC change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale modeling of restructuring in high burnup UO 2 fuel

Here, this work aims to simulate the restructuring behavior observed in different regions of high burnup fuel, providing a first-of-its-kind restructuring model for the dark zone and rim region of high-burnup UO 2 fuel. We employed a grand-potential-based phase-field model to concurrently evaluate subgrain formation and the growth of fission gas bubbles within the fuel. An energy-based subgrain formation criterion was introduced to simulate the restructuring process. The effects of different initial conditions and different modeling parameters were systematically studied to capture how each of these parameters influences the characteristics of the restructured fuel. Subgrain formation was observed to begin around existing fission gas bubbles and proceed toward triple junctions, grain boundaries, and grain interiors. Restructuring was demonstrated to be influenced by a combination of initial dislocation densities, burnup rate, subgrain formation rate, and temperature. Under a given subgrain formation rate, the rate of restructuring increases with rising fuel temperature. A restructuring bias was observed within the microstructure, due to the variation in defect accumulation when comparing different grains. Microstructures corresponding to the dark zone and rim region can be obtained by parameterizing the model with the appropriate defect production rate, as determined based on the burnup rate and temperature. Furthermore, bubble size and distribution do not significantly affect the rate of restructuring. The predicted microstructures are consistent with experimental observations of the restructured regions. Finally, we present a correlation demonstrating the evolution of the restructuring volume fraction as a function of local burnup.

UO2↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Targeted Quantification of Protein Phosphorylation and Its Contributions towards Mathematical Modeling of Signaling Pathways

Post-translational modifications (PTMs) are key regulatory mechanisms that can control protein function. Of these, phosphorylation is the most common and widely studied. Because of its importance in regulating cell signaling, precise and accurate measurements of protein phosphorylation across wide dynamic ranges are crucial to understanding how signaling pathways function. Although immunological assays are commonly used to detect phosphoproteins, their lack of sensitivity, specificity, and selectivity often make them unreliable for quantitative measurements of complex biological samples. Recent advances in Mass Spectrometry (MS)-based targeted proteomics have made it a more useful approach than immunoassays for studying the dynamics of protein phosphorylation. Selected reaction monitoring (SRM)—also known as multiple reaction monitoring (MRM)—and parallel reaction monitoring (PRM) can quantify relative and absolute abundances of protein phosphorylation in multiplexed fashions targeting specific pathways. In addition, the refinement of these tools by enrichment and fractionation strategies has improved measurement of phosphorylation of low-abundance proteins. The quantitative data generated are particularly useful for building and parameterizing mathematical models of complex phospho-signaling pathways. Potentially, these models can provide a framework for linking analytical measurements of clinical samples to better diagnosis and treatment of disease.

mathematical modeling↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Reynolds stress induced by weakly up-down asymmetric ion temperature gradient mode

A weakly up-down asymmetric ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode (formed in the up-down symmetric equilibrium), localized in the bad curvature region, may contribute dominantly to the nonlinear Reynolds stress because its growth rate is higher than the competing modes: the strongly up-down asymmetric modes, and other modes peaked (poloidally) away from the outboard mid-plane. Based on the fluid ITG model, the parameterized analytic wave function is constructed in the two dimensional (2D) Fourier-ballooning representation, and numerically verified by making use of the finite difference methods. Analytic expressions for the poloidal Reynolds stresses, defined on a rational surface, are given for both the weakly and the strongly up-down asymmetric ITG modes. It is shown here that the poloidal stresses of both modes can be interpreted as a superposition of a monopole and a dipole structure. For comparison with the experiment, the stresses are calculated for L-mode discharge parameters on five machines. Analytic expressions for the total parallel Reynolds stresses (contributed from all rational surfaces) are also derived for both modes: they are also exhibited, graphically, using a Gaussian wave intensity model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Modeling for Restructuring and Fragmentation in High Burnup UO 2

This report summarizes the mesoscale modeling conducted in fiscal year 2025 under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, focusing on the microstructural evolution and restructuring in high burnup UO 2 nuclear fuel and its impact on fuel fragmentation. We developed a pioneering phase-field model to simulate restructuring behavior across different regions of high burnup fuel, including the dark zone and rim region. A grand-potential-based phase-field model is employed to concurrently evaluate subgrain formation and the growth of fission gas bubbles within the fuel. An energy-based subgrain formation criterion was introduced to simulate the restructuring process. The effects of temperature and burnup rate were studied to capture how each of these parameters influences the characteristics of the restructured fuel. Subgrain formation was observed to initiate around existing fission gas bubbles and proceed toward triple junctions, grain boundaries, and grain interiors. Under a given subgrain formation rate, the rate of restructuring increases with rising fuel temperature. The restructuring occurs faster with higher burnup rate. A restructuring bias was observed within the microstructure, due to the variation in defect accumulation when comparing different grains. Microstructures corresponding to the dark zone and rim region can be obtained by parameterizing the model with the appropriate defect production rate, as determined based on the burnup rate and temperature. The predicted microstructures are consistent with experimental observations of the restructured regions. Based on the mesoscale simulations, a mechanistic model for restructuring and grain size evolution was implemented in BISON. Thus, this work provides a first-of-its-kind restructuring model for different regions of high-burnup fuel to BISON. It was shown that the model predicts appropriate grain size evolution along fuel radius as those observed in experiments. This model enables BISON to predict the effect of restructuring on the fission gas release. Finally, the phase-field fracture simulation with dark zone specific microstructures were presented to provide the fragmentation criteria for the dark zone. This work introduces a first-of-its-kind restructuring model for high burnup fuel, significantly enhancing BISON's predictive capabilities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning in continuous action space for developing high dimensional potential energy models

Reinforcement learning (RL) approaches that combine a tree search with deep learning have found remarkable success in searching exorbitantly large, albeit discrete action spaces, as in chess, Shogi and Go. Many real-world materials discovery and design applications, however, involve multi-dimensional search problems and learning domains that have continuous action spaces. Exploring high-dimensional potential energy models of materials is an example. Traditionally, these searches are time consuming (often several years for a single bulk system) and driven by human intuition and/or expertise and more recently by global/local optimization searches that have issues with convergence and/or do not scale well with the search dimensionality. Here, in a departure from discrete action and other gradient-based approaches, we introduce a RL strategy based on decision trees that incorporates modified rewards for improved exploration, efficient sampling during playouts and a “window scaling scheme" for enhanced exploitation, to enable efficient and scalable search for continuous action space problems. Using high-dimensional artificial landscapes and control RL problems, we successfully benchmark our approach against popular global optimization schemes and state of the art policy gradient methods, respectively. We demonstrate its efficacy to parameterize potential models (physics based and high-dimensional neural networks) for 54 different elemental systems across the periodic table as well as alloys. We analyze error trends across different elements in the latent space and trace their origin to elemental structural diversity and the smoothness of the element energy surface. Broadly, our RL strategy will be applicable to many other physical science problems involving search over continuous action spaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

What Drives Upper-Ocean Temperature Variability in Coupled Climate Models and Observations?

Abstract A key question in climate modeling is to what extent sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content are driven passively by air–sea heat fluxes, as opposed to forcing by ocean dynamics. This paper investigates the question using a climate model at different resolutions, and observations, for monthly variability. At the grid scale in a high-resolution climate model with resolved mesoscale ocean eddies, ocean dynamics (i.e., ocean heat flux convergence) dominates upper 50 m heat content variability over most of the globe. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the heat content variability at the grid scale is almost totally controlled by ocean heat flux convergence. However, a strong dependence on spatial scale is found—for the upper 50 m of ocean, after smoothing the data to around 7°, air–sea heat fluxes, augmented by Ekman heat transports, dominate. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the transition scale becomes larger and is above 10° in western boundary currents. Comparison of climate model results with observations show that the small-scale influence of ocean intrinsic variability is well captured by the high-resolution model but is missing from a comparable model with parameterized ocean-eddy effects. In the deep tropics, ocean dynamics dominates in all cases and all scales. In the subtropical gyres at large scales, air–sea heat fluxes play the biggest role. In the midlatitudes, at large scales >10°, atmosphere-driven air–sea heat fluxes and Ekman heat transport variability are the dominant processes except in the western boundary currents for the 400 m heat content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO Diversity Simulated in a Revised Cane-Zebiak Model

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon features rich sea surface temperature (SST) spatial pattern variations dominated by the Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP) patterns during its warm phase. Understanding such ENSO pattern diversity has been a subject under extensive research activity. To provide a framework for unveiling the fundamental dynamics of ENSO diversity, an intermediate coupled model based on the Cane-Zebiak-type framework, named RCZ, is established in this study. Compared with the original Cane-Zebiak model, RCZ consists of revised model formulation and well-tuned parameterization schemes. All model components are carefully validated against the observations via the standalone mode, in which the observed anomalous SST (wind stress) forcing is prescribed to drive the atmospheric (oceanic) component. The superiority of RCZ’s model components over those in the original Cane-Zebiak model is evidenced by their better performance in simulating the observations. Coupled simulation with RCZ satisfactorily reproduces aspects of the observed ENSO characteristics, including the spatial pattern, phase-locking, amplitude asymmetry, and, particularly, ENSO diversity/bi-modality. RCZ serves as a promising tool for studying dynamics of ENSO diversity as it resolves most of the relevant processes proposed in the literature, including atmospheric nonlinear convective heating, oceanic nonlinear dynamical heating, and the ENSO/westerly wind burst interaction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Minimizing User Burden in Building Energy Analysis

Infrared (IR) imagery can provide valuable data to building energy auditors and the developers of Building Energy Models (BEM). IR by itself is not a panacea to the challenges facing energy auditors and modelers, but when combined with other techniques and Open Studio software, IR can play an important role in the minimization of the burden of creating building energy models and the diagnosing of building energy problems. While IR can be used to detect and quantify many aspects of a building’s thermal and energy performance, in Phase I we focused on a single capability: determining the R value of exterior walls. Two key attributes of using IR methods for R value determination is that IR methods measure the actual, installed performance in-situ – as opposed to relying on manufacturer or handbook values – and they can integrate performance over a wide area and thus can accurately account for thermal bridging and spatial anomalies such as “spotty” insulation installation. There is a trade between user burden and accuracy when using IR to determine a wall’s R value. The least burdensome approach is computing R values from a single IR snapshot. The most burdensome method we considered was to combine IR images with thermocouple and heat flux sensor (HFS) measurements made over the course of several days. The more effort users expend in making the measurements, the more accurate and robust the method becomes. Through a series of field tests at the ThermoAnalytics Inc. (TAI) HQ at Calumet, MI and a simulation of a 1980s era office building in Flagstaff, AZ we investigated methods to compute the R value of exterior walls using data from IR cameras, thermocouples and heat flux sensors. To compute R values the heat flux through the wall, along with temperatures on either side of the wall, must be known, modeled, or estimated – and the temperature difference through the wall should be at least 10 C. If only outdoor IR images are used in the method, the inside ambient air temperature must be estimated, and a simulation model created to predict heat fluxes and the indoor wall temperature. The accuracy of the resulting R value depends on the accuracy of the simulation and the assumptions it employs. Applying thermocouple sensors, either as iButtons or as part of a wireless sensor network, to the walls allows for the acquisition of temperatures over time. The longer the duration of the measurements, the more accurate and robust the method will be. Even with this level of measurement effort, modeling is still required to calculate the heat flux through the wall. The addition of a heat flux sensor alleviates the need for any modeling, and that results in improved accuracy. Driving the accuracy of the methods are several factors that can be quantified. How well are the wall surface temperatures known? Modeling the heat flux through walls requires knowing the details of the surrounding radiant environment and the heat transfer due to convection. How well are these boundary conditions known? Even when the heat flux is measured, error can arise when some of the measured heat is not conducted through the wall but rather goes into the thermal mass of the wall. Thermal mass effects occur when conditions and the heat flux values are fluctuating. A technique that is not robust will suffer in accuracy when these fluctuations occur. The R value determination method must be incorporated into the Open Studio process. In our proposed process, IR images and other measured sensor data are input into a module that would send R value estimates to a building library developed by team member Skidmore, Owings, & Merrill (SOM). This library of parameterized building models would use these R values along with information about the building’s age, type, and location to query the Open Studio BCL to identify the most likely constructions for walls, roof, and windows. Being based on the IMF feature of Energyplus, the SOM building library can quickly produce Energyplus models of buildings based on a limited number of user inputs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of radiation-induced composition redistribution: An application to additively manufactured austenitic Fe–Cr–Ni

Multicomponent alloys undergoing irradiation damage develop radiation-induced composition redistribution at point defect sinks such as grain boundaries (GBs) and dislocations. Such redistribution results in undesired changes to their mechanical behavior and corrosion resistance. Additively manufactured alloys proposed for future nuclear applications are expected to demonstrate a distinct response to irradiation owing to their unique microstructure with as-solidified dislocation density and chemical microsegregation. To capture the composition redistribution in such systems, we develop a mesoscale model with coupled evolution of atomic and point defect components in the presence of dislocation density, dislocation heterogeneity, and thermodynamic interactions at the GB. The model is parameterized for an FCC Fe–Cr–Ni alloy as a representative system for austenitic stainless steels, and simulations are performed in 1D and 2D as a function of irradiation temperature, dose, dislocation density, and grain size. Radiation-induced segregation (RIS) characterized by Cr depletion and Ni enrichment is predicted at both the GB and the dislocation cell wall, with RIS being lower in magnitude but wider at the cell wall. Strongly biased absorption of self-interstitials by dislocations is found to suppress Ni enrichment but slightly enhance Cr depletion under certain conditions. Thermodynamic segregation at the GB is predicted to be narrower and opposite in sign to RIS for both Cr and Ni. Importantly, non-monotonic segregation is found to occur when both thermodynamic and RIS mechanisms are considered, providing a novel physical interpretation of experimental observations. The model is expected to serve as a key tool in accelerated qualification of irradiated materials.

additively manufactured microstructure↗
DOE OSTI2015

RACORO continental boundary layer cloud investigations. 3. Separation of parameterization biases in single-column model CAM5 simulations of shallow cumulus

Climatically important low-level clouds are commonly misrepresented in climate models. The FAst-physics System TEstbed and Research (FASTER) project has constructed case studies from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plain site during the RACORO aircraft campaign to facilitate research on model representation of boundary-layer clouds. This paper focuses on using the single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (SCAM5) simulations of a multi-day continental shallow cumulus case to identify specific parameterization causes of low-cloud biases. Consistent model biases among the simulations driven by a set of alternative forcings suggest that uncertainty in the forcing plays only a relatively minor role. In-depth analysis reveals that the model's shallow cumulus convection scheme tends to significantly under-produce clouds during the times when shallow cumuli exist in the observations, while the deep convective and stratiform cloud schemes significantly over-produce low-level clouds throughout the day. The links between model biases and the underlying assumptions of the shallow cumulus scheme are further diagnosed with the aid of large-eddy simulations and aircraft measurements, and by suppressing the triggering of the deep convection scheme. It is found that the weak boundary layer turbulence simulated is directly responsible for the weak cumulus activity and the simulated boundary layer stratiform clouds. Increased vertical and temporal resolutions are shown to lead to stronger boundary layer turbulence and reduction of low-cloud biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A meta-analysis of the association between gender and protective behaviors in response to respiratory epidemics

Respiratory infectious disease epidemics and pandemics are recurring events that levy a high cost on individuals and society. The health-protective behavioral response of the public plays an important role in limiting respiratory infectious disease spread. Health-protective behaviors take several forms. Behaviors can be categorized as pharmaceutical (e.g., vaccination uptake, antiviral use) or non-pharmaceutical (e.g., hand washing, face mask use, avoidance of public transport). Due to the limitations of pharmaceutical interventions during respiratory epidemics and pandemics, public health campaigns aimed at limiting disease spread often emphasize both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical behavioral interventions. Understanding the determinants of the public’s behavioral response is crucial for devising public health campaigns, providing information to parametrize mathematical models, and ultimately limiting disease spread. While other reviews have qualitatively analyzed the body of work on demographic determinants of health-protective behavior, this meta-analysis quantitatively combines the results from 85 publications to determine the global relationship between gender and health-protective behavioral response. The results show that women in the general population are about 50% more likely than men to adopt/practice non-pharmaceutical behaviors. Conversely, men in the general population are marginally (about 12%) more likely than women to adopt/practice pharmaceutical behaviors. It is possible that factors other than pharmaceutical/non-pharmaceutical status not included in this analysis act as moderators of this relationship. We find these results suggest an inherent difference in how men and women respond to epidemic and pandemic respiratory infectious diseases. In conclusion, this information can be used to target specific groups when developing non-pharmaceutical public health campaigns and to parameterize epidemic models incorporating demographic information.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Near-threshold incoherent pion photoproduction on the deuteron with final-state interaction effects

Highlights: • Incoherent pion photoproduction on the deuteron near threshold is investigated including rescattering effects. • For the first time, polarization observables are predicted near threshold. • The influence of NN-FSI effect is moderate in the π{sup 0}-production. • πN-rescattering has a noticeable contribution only in the π{sup 0}-production. • The unpolarized cross sections have a satisfactory agreement with experiment and other theories. - Abstract: Incoherent pion photoproduction on the deuteron γd→πNN is investigated in the energy region E{sub γ}{sup thr}≤E{sub γ}≤ 160 MeV. The model applied contains the amplitudes of the impulse approximation as well as the NN and πN rescattering in the final state. For the elementary γN→πN amplitude, the unitary isobar MAID-2007 model is used. This model is parameterized in terms of invariant amplitudes and allows one to give a more reliable description of the threshold region. The half-off-shell NN and πN scattering amplitudes are obtained from separable representations of realistic NN and πN interactions, respectively. For the first time, numerical results for the linear photon asymmetry Σ, vector T{sub 11} and tensor T{sub 2M} (M=0,1,2) deuteron spin asymmetries for the reactions γd→π{sup −}pp, γd→π{sup +}nn, and γd→π{sup 0}np are presented. In addition, results for the unpolarized differential and total cross sections are given. We found that the influence of NN rescattering is moderate in both charged-and neutral-pion production channels, whereas πN rescattering is almost negligible in the charged-pion production channels which is not the case in neutral-pion production since a noticeable contribution is obtained. The calculated results for unpolarized differential and total cross sections are compared with the available experimental data and other theoretical models, and a satisfactory agreement is obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1−1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Duration of Contagion of Foot-And-Mouth Disease Virus in Infected Live Pigs and Carcasses

Data-driven modeling of incursions of high-consequence, transboundary pathogens of animals is a critical component of veterinary preparedness. However, simplifying assumptions and excessive use of proxy measures to compensate for gaps in available data may compromise modeled outcomes. The current investigation was prospectively designed to address two major gaps in current knowledge of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) pathogenesis in pigs: the end (duration) of the infectious period and the viability of FMDV in decaying carcasses. By serial exposure of sentinel groups of pigs to the same group of donor pigs infected by FMDV A24 Cruzeiro, it was demonstrated that infected pigs transmitted disease at 10 days post infection (dpi), but not at 15 dpi. Assuming a latent period of 1 day, this would result in a conservative estimate of an infectious duration of 9 days, which is considerably longer than suggested by a previous report from an experiment performed in cattle. Airborne contagion was diminished within two days of removal of infected pigs from isolation rooms. FMDV in muscle was inactivated within 7 days in carcasses stored at 4°C. By contrast, FMDV infectivity in vesicle epithelium harvested from intact carcasses stored under similar conditions remained remarkably high until the study termination at 11 weeks post mortem. The output from this study consists of experimentally determined data on contagion associated with FMDV-infected pigs. This information may be utilized to update parameterization of models used for foot-and-mouth disease outbreak simulations involving areas of substantial pig production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗