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At least 577 records · Page 32

Viral Dynamic Models During COVID‐19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?

Mathematical models have been used for about 30 years to improve our understanding of virus-host interaction, in particular during chronic infections. During the COVID-19 pandemic, these models have been used to provide insights into the natural history of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, optimize antiviral treatment strategies, understand factors associated with transmission, and optimize surveillance systems. The impact of modeling has been accelerated by the availability of unprecedented multidimensional immune data from animal and human systems, which enhanced partnerships between experimentalists and theorists and led to exciting new modeling and statistical developments. In this mini review, we examine the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss the main insights provided by mathematical models of viral dynamics at the different stages of the outbreak. Although we focus on respiratory infection, we also consider the new areas for development in anticipation of future acute infections from new or reemerging pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Verification of MOOSE/Bison's Heat Conduction Solver Using Combined Spatiotemporal Convergence Analysis

Bison is a computational physics code that uses the finite element method to model the thermo-mechanical response of nuclear fuel. Since Bison is used to inform high-consequence decisions, it is important that its computational results are reliable and predictive. One important step in assessing the reliability and predictive capabilities of a simulation tool is the verification process, which quantifies numerical errors in a discrete solution relative to the exact solution of the mathematical model. One step in the verification process—called code verification—ensures that the implemented numerical algorithm is a faithful representation of the underlying mathematical model, including partial differential or integral equations, initial and boundary conditions, and auxiliary relationships. In this paper, the code verification process is applied to spatiotemporal heat conduction problems in Bison. Simultaneous refinement of the discretization in space and time is employed to reveal any potential mistakes in the numerical algorithms for the interactions between the spatial and temporal components of the solution. For each verification problem, the correct spatial and temporal order of accuracy is demonstrated for both first- and second-order accurate finite elements and a variety of time-integration schemes. Furthermore, these results provide strong evidence that the Bison numerical algorithm for solving spatiotemporal problems reliably represents the underlying mathematical model in MOOSE. The selected test problems can also be used in other simulation tools that numerically solve for conduction or diffusion.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Efficient Model-Based Diagnosis Engine

An efficient diagnosis engine - a combination of mathematical models and algorithms - has been developed for identifying faulty components in a possibly complex engineering system. This model-based diagnosis engine embodies a twofold approach to reducing, relative to prior model-based diagnosis engines, the amount of computation needed to perform a thorough, accurate diagnosis. The first part of the approach involves a reconstruction of the general diagnostic engine to reduce the complexity of the mathematical-model calculations and of the software needed to perform them. The second part of the approach involves algorithms for computing a minimal diagnosis (the term "minimal diagnosis" is defined below). A somewhat lengthy background discussion is prerequisite to a meaningful summary of the innovative aspects of the present efficient model-based diagnosis engine. In model-based diagnosis, the function of each component and the relationships among all the components of the engineering system to be diagnosed are represented as a logical system denoted the system description (SD). Hence, the expected normal behavior of the engineering system is the set of logical consequences of the SD. Faulty components lead to inconsistencies between the observed behaviors of the system and the SD (see figure). Diagnosis - the task of finding faulty components - is reduced to finding those components, the abnormalities of which could explain all the inconsistencies. The solution of the diagnosis problem should be a minimal diagnosis, which is a minimal set of faulty components. A minimal diagnosis stands in contradistinction to the trivial solution, in which all components are deemed to be faulty, and which, therefore, always explains all inconsistencies.

Fijany, Amir↗

Basic research for the geodynamics program

The mathematical models of space very long base interferometry (VLBI) observables suitable for least squares covariance analysis were derived and estimatability problems inherent in the space VLBI system were explored, including a detailed rank defect analysis and sensitivity analysis. An important aim is to carry out a comparative analysis of the mathematical models of the ground-based VLBI and space VLBI observables in order to describe the background in detail. Computer programs were developed in order to check the relations, assess errors, and analyze sensitivity. In order to investigate the estimatability of different geodetic and geodynamic parameters from the space VLBI observables, the mathematical models for time delay and time delay rate observables of space VLBI were analytically derived along with the partial derivatives with respect to the parameters. Rank defect analysis was carried out both by analytical and numerical testing of linear dependencies between the columns of the normal matrix thus formed. Definite conclusions were formed about the rank defects in the system.

Source record↗

Quantifying Astronaut Tasks: Robotic Technology and Future Space Suit Design

The primary aim of this research effort was to advance the current understanding of astronauts' capabilities and limitations in space-suited EVA by developing models of the constitutive and compatibility relations of a space suit, based on experimental data gained from human test subjects as well as a 12 degree-of-freedom human-sized robot, and utilizing these fundamental relations to estimate a human factors performance metric for space suited EVA work. The three specific objectives are to: 1) Compile a detailed database of torques required to bend the joints of a space suit, using realistic, multi- joint human motions. 2) Develop a mathematical model of the constitutive relations between space suit joint torques and joint angular positions, based on experimental data and compare other investigators' physics-based models to experimental data. 3) Estimate the work envelope of a space suited astronaut, using the constitutive and compatibility relations of the space suit. The body of work that makes up this report includes experimentation, empirical and physics-based modeling, and model applications. A detailed space suit joint torque-angle database was compiled with a novel experimental approach that used space-suited human test subjects to generate realistic, multi-joint motions and an instrumented robot to measure the torques required to accomplish these motions in a space suit. Based on the experimental data, a mathematical model is developed to predict joint torque from the joint angle history. Two physics-based models of pressurized fabric cylinder bending are compared to experimental data, yielding design insights. The mathematical model is applied to EVA operations in an inverse kinematic analysis coupled to the space suit model to calculate the volume in which space-suited astronauts can work with their hands, demonstrating that operational human factors metrics can be predicted from fundamental space suit information.

Newman, Dava↗

Flight test planning and parameter extraction for rotorcraft system identification

The present study is concerned with the mathematical modelling of aircraft dynamics on the basis of an investigation conducted with the aid of the Rotor System Research Aircraft (RSRA). The particular characteristics of RSRA make it possible to investigate aircraft properties which cannot be readily studied elsewhere, for example in the wind tunnel. The considered experiment had mainly the objective to develop an improved understanding of the physics of rotor flapping dynamics and rotor loads in maneuvers. The employed approach is based on a utilization of parameter identification methodology (PID) with application to helicopters. A better understanding of the contribution of the main rotor to the overall aircraft forces and moments is also to be obtained. Attention is given to the mathematical model of a rotorcraft system, an integrated identification method, flight data processing, and the identification of RSRA mathematical models.

Wang, J. C.↗

Identifiability Of Systems With Modeling Errors

Advances in theory of modeling errors reported. Recent paper on errors in mathematical models of deterministic linear or weakly nonlinear systems. Extends theoretical work described in NPO-16661 and NPO-16785. Presents concrete way of accounting for difference in structure between mathematical model and physical process or system that it represents.

Hadaegh, Yadolah "fred"↗

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the LA-8 tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗

System Identification for Propellers at High Incidence Angles

Propellers used for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft propulsion systems experience a wide range of aerodynamic conditions, including large incidence angles relative to oncoming airflow. In oblique flow, propellers exhibit deviations in thrust and torque oriented along the propeller axis of rotation, as well as significant off-axis forces and moments. Although important for modeling eVTOL aircraft aerodynamics, sparse experimental data or mathematical models exist for propellers at incidence. This paper describes a propulsion system modeling methodology for the Langley Aerodrome No. 8 (LA-8) tandem tilt-wing, eVTOL aircraft. System identification methods are applied to isolated propeller wind tunnel data gathered across the vehicle's flight envelope to develop a mathematical model of the propulsion system, including a static motor model, dynamic motor model, and propeller aerodynamic model. Modeling results validated against data withheld from the modeling process indicate good predictive capability and agree with theoretical expectations. The results are followed by a discussion of model implementation strategies into high-fidelity eVTOL aircraft simulations.

system identification↗

Towards modeling phage therapy

Patients infected with life-threatening multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria have been treated with cocktails of bacteriophages. This is a complicated form of personalized medicine as the phages given to a patient have to be selected beforehand on the basis of their lytic capacity of the infecting bacteria. Because bacteria rapidly become resistant, the evolution of resistance to a diverse cocktail of phages is a complicated dynamical process, during which competing bacterial strains replace one another by accumulating several resistance mechanisms, each of which may involve a fitness cost. As a consequence, it is typically not known why a particular phage therapy succeeded or failed, and how one can optimize the composition of the cocktails to maximize the rate of success. To improve upon this, we extend an existing in vivo -calibrated mouse model into a novel mathematical model for the human situation, and include multiple phages infecting multiple bacterial strains, differing in their resistance to each of the phages. We adjust several parameter estimates of the bacterial model to the human situation, and use the model to describe a successful case of phage therapy involving several cocktails, each containing several phages. In the model, treatment success crucially depended on pretreatment resistance levels, and on the diversity and the timing of the cocktails. Once an appropriate cocktail is found, it is less important to further optimize the infection rates of the phages. Resistant bacterial strains expand rapidly when sensitive strains decline, and the higher the infectivity of the phages, the faster resistant strains expand. Because resistance evolves rapidly, it is best to provide a diverse set of phages right from the start of therapy, i.e., to hit hard and early, and create a high genetic barrier to bacterial resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Predictions Of Accretion Of Ice On A Commercial Airplane

Report presents computational study of accretion of ice on wings and on horizontal tail surfaces of simplified version of Boeing 737 airplane. Calculations performed by use of LEWICE3D computer code, which incorporates panel-method mathematical model of three-dimensional potential flow and mathematical models of trajectories of drops of water entrained in flow, impingement of drops on surfaces, and transfer of heat.

Bidwell, C. S.↗

Frequency-Domain Modeling Of Dynamics Of Helicopters

Method for identification, in frequency domain, of parameters of mathematical models of dynamical behaviors of helicopters combines and extends several existing methods. Focuses on linear-state-space models. Comprehensive frequency-domain method for identification of parameters of mathematical model helicopter involves synthesis of several prior methods.

Tischler, Mark B.↗

Simulation Apps Bring Us Closer to Mars

My work with mathematical modeling and computer simulations began in earnest in 1987 when I signed on with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, better known as NASA. At the time I was developing computer simulations to support the design of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal systems for the International Space Station (ISS) life support system. CO2 is a human metabolic waste, produced at a rate of a kilogram per day per crewmember. CO2 must be removed from the crew cabin, as it will quickly become detrimental to crew health. The systems used to remove CO2 are typically based on sorption processes, which include complex interactions of heat transfer, mass transfer, and gas flow through porous media. At this time, there were no commercial options for solving a set of coupled mathematical models such as partial differential equations (PDEs); you either force-fit the physics into a thermal analysis package or wrote your own code, complete with discretization, meshing, and solution algorithms. Unfortunately, coding CO2 removal processes from scratch did not allow an appropriate focus on the challenging yet crucial task of understanding and capturing the underlying physics via appropriate mathematical models. Configuration control was often simply ignored due to tight schedules, resulting in a code that would be quicker for a second party to rewrite than modify. In the early 2000s, I decided to move CO2 removal simulations to a platform with built-in meshing, solvers, and postprocessing capabilities, and that could solve user-defined multiphysics PDEs. The program chosen to meet these needs was COMSOL Multiphysics®. Along with freeing the engineer to focus on the underlying physics, a degree of configuration control was automatically achieved via a consistent user interface, thus allowing COMSOL users to share computer models. My team has developed simulations that are already providing a valuable debugging capability for the ISS CO2 removal system, and will provide guidance in upgrades to that system.

Knox, Jim↗

Radiometry Measurements of Mars at 1064 nm Using the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter

Measurements by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) on board the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) may be used to provides a radiometric measurement of Mars in addition to the topographic measurement. We will describe the principle of operation, a mathematical model, and the receiver calibration in this presentation. MOLA was designed primarily to measure Mars topography, surface roughness end the bidirectional reflectance to the laser beam. To achieve the highest sensitivity the receiver detection threshold is dynamically adjusted to be as low as possible while keeping a predetermined false alarm rate. The average false alarm rate 29 monitored in real time on board MOLA via a noise counter, whose output is fed to the threshold control loop. The false alarm rate at a given threshold is a function of the detector output noise which is the sum of the photo detector, shot noise due to the background light seen by the detector and the dark noise. A mathematical model has been developed that can be used to numerically solve for the optical background power given the MOLA threshold setting and the average noise count. The radiance of Mars can then be determined by dividing the optical power by the solid angle subtended by the MOLA receiver, the receiver optical band-width, end the Mars surface area within the receiver field of view. The phase angle which is the sun-Mars-MOLA angle is available from the MGS database. MOLA also measures simultaneously the bidirectional reflectance of Mars vie its 106-lum loser beam at nadir with nearly zero phase angle. The optical bandwidth of the MOLA receiver is 2um full width at half maximum (FWHM) and centered at 106-lum. The receiver field of view is 0.95mrad FWHM. The nominated spacecraft altitude is 100km and the ground track speed is about 3km/s. Under normal operation, the noise counter are read and the threshold levels are updated at 1Hz. The receiver sensitivity is limited by the detector dark noise to about 0.1nW, which corresponds to less than 2% the maximum radiance during daytime from the brightest area on Mars. The results from the mathematical model agree well with the prelaunch measurements at several calibrated optical power levels. The radiance of sunlit Mars estimated with this technique correlates well with the measurement from the MGS. Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and the Hubble Space Telescope at similar wavelength.

Sun, Xiao-Li↗

Assessment of Models of Chemically Reacting Granular Flows

A report presents an assessment of a general mathematical model of dense, chemically reacting granular flows like those in fluidized beds used to pyrolize biomass. The model incorporates submodels that have been described in several NASA Tech Briefs articles, including "Generalized Mathematical Model of Pyrolysis of Biomass" (NPO-20068) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 22, No. 2 (February 1998), page 60; "Model of Pyrolysis of Biomass in a Fluidized-Bed Reactor" (NPO-20708), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 25, No. 6 (June 2001), page 59; and "Model of Fluidized Bed Containing Reacting Solids and Gases" (NPO- 30163), which appears elsewhere in this issue. The model was used to perform computational simulations in a test case of pyrolysis in a reactor containing sand and biomass (i.e., plant material) particles through which passes a flow of hot nitrogen. The boundary conditions and other parameters were selected for the test case to enable assessment of the validity of some assumptions incorporated into submodels of granular stresses, granular thermal conductivity, and heating of particles. The results of the simulation are interpreted as partly affirming the assumptions in some respects and indicating the need for refinements of the assumptions and the affected submodels in other respects.

Bellan, Josette↗

Microdynamic modelling of joint-dominated truss-based structures

A methodology for the mathematical modeling of preloaded joint-dominated truss-based space structures applicable in the microdynamic regime is presented. First, various factors which could affect the microdynamic behavior of joint-dominated truss structures are examined. Then, mathematical models for various types of joints involving contact deformations are derived from Hertzian contact theory. Their dynamic behavior is studied analytically and numerically by means of computer simulation. It was found that both synchronous and asynchronous oscillations having the same orders of magnitude are excited by sinusoidal load perturbations in the microdynamic regime. These oscillations persist even in the presence of light linear damping. The integration of the derived joint models with those for the elastic links of preloaded planar truss structures is discussed.

Wang, P. K. C.↗