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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of synthetic fuel production from existing nuclear power plants across the United States

Abstract Low carbon synfuel can reduce dependence on fossil fuels like diesel and jet fuel, and, with large-scale cost-effective production, contribute to global transportation sector decarbonization, Simultaneously, nuclear power plants are struggling economically due to falling wholesale electricity prices. Converting existing nuclear plants for synfuel production could preserve these low-carbon assets and enable large-scale synfuel production, yet no comprehensive technoeconomic analysis exists. This study evaluates the potential of integrating synthetic fuel production with five US nuclear plants, considering electricity and fuel markets and carbon dioxide source access. Such integration could enhance nuclear plant profitability by up to $792 million and offer a 10% return on investment over 20 years. The hydrogen production tax credit from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act is crucial, comprising 75% of revenues on average. Carbon feedstock transportation has the highest cost at 35%, followed closely by synfuel production capital costs. Incentive policies are thus key for the decarbonization of the transportation sector and the economic importance of the geographic location of Integrated Energy Systems.

Garrouste, Marisol (ORCID:0000000168388644)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstration of a modeling toolkit for the design of building electrical distribution systems

The deployment of building equipment (e.g., lighting, security) and miscellaneous electrical loads that fundamentally require DC power for operation is increasing. Powering these DC loads has traditionally required an AC/DC converter, but the installation of photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage systems that primarily produce DC power eliminates the need for AC/DC converters at each end-device. However, analyzing system energy efficiency and cost for different electrical distribution architectures can be challenging as software tools that support this are not readily available. This paper presents preliminary results from a laboratory verification of the Building Electrical Efficiency Analysis Model (BEEAM) toolkit that was developed to address this gap. Three different eight-luminaire lighting systems comprised of market-available products were designed and modeled: one that used traditional AC distribution, a second that used a hybrid AC -to- centralized DC electrical distribution architecture, and a third that used a hybrid AC -to- distributed DC architecture. Notably, AC/DC conversions are required in all three systems. BEEAM models for LED drivers as well as Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) switches were created using laboratory characterization data. The lighting systems were simulated in Modelica, and the results were compared with each other and physics-based expectations. Simulation results show that PoE system energy efficiency is highly dependent on both device specification (e.g., LED driver and PoE switch efficiency) and system architecture (e.g., PoE switch loading) choices, as expected. For the products and system architectures selected for this study, the two DC systems were found to be less efficient than the AC system over the course of typical operation. In future work, simulation results will be compared with laboratory measurements to validate the usefulness of this software for design, and lighting systems with integrated PV and battery energy storage will be simulated to quantify the energy performance improvements that result from the elimination of some AC/DC converters.

Waghale, Anay S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Commercial Building Energy Code Field Study (Final Report)

What is the dollar value of increasing compliance with the energy code? Ultimately, this is the question that policy makers, funders, and program implementers care about. With this in mind, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a new methodology capable of determining how much energy cost savings could potentially be gained through better compliance with the code (Rosenberg et al. 2016). On March 2, 2016 DOE issued Funding Opportunity Announcement (FOA) Number DE-FOA-0001532, requesting proposals to develop and test a methodology for identifying the commercial energy code requirements that can provide the maximum cost-effective energy and cost savings through increased compliance. Awarded to the Institute for Market Transformation, this report summarizes the development and testing of a commercial code compliance methodology, including a summary of results, statistical analysis of sample, and best practices for others implementing a commercial energy code compliance field study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Capital Cost Scaling Methodology: Revision 4b Report

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) regularly updates legacy analysis with new studies and cases as the Department of Energy objectives change, technology performance improves, costs are reduced, regulations change, market drivers are established, fuel prices fluctuate, and any number of other relevant factors vary in the market. As legacy studies are updated by NETL, the underlying performance and cost of the cases presented changes, and as such, the methods for interpreting and scaling the cost estimates change. Therefore, it is important that NETL maintain public guidance documents associated with different sets of cost estimates that delineate how a specific set, based on report vintage and/or year published, should be scaled. This Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies report, providing guidance on capital cost scaling, should generally be applied to NETL case costs included in the report “Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants Volume 1: Bituminous Coal and Natural Gas to Electricity Revision 4b,” (NETL, 2025) or any cases derived from the cases presented in the referenced report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A User-Facing Metric to Quantify the Quality of Mobility (CRADA Final Report)

The leading urban mobility data analytics firm StreetLight Data, Inc. partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to explore a commercial version of the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric. The commercialization effort was aimed to expand the adoption of the metric to key stakeholders in the urban planning space. Research comprised industry analysis, stakeholder feedback and conducting transportation practitioner focus groups. StreetLight concluded that commercialization of MEP is not feasible in the current market because users need a dynamic MEP tool that enables scenario planning. It should be able to calculate a MEP score dynamically (near instantaneous) when different inputs are changed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Feasibility study of modern airships, phase 1. Volume 3: Historical overview (task 1)

The history of lighter-than-air vehicles is reviewed in terms of providing a background for the mission analysis and parametric analysis tasks. Data from past airships and airship operations are presented in the following areas: (1) parameterization of design characteristics; (2) markets, missions, costs, and operating procedures, (3) indices of efficiency for comparison; (4) identification of critical design and operational characteristics; and (5) definition of the 1930 state-of-the-art and the 1974 state-of-the-art from a technical and economic standpoint.

Faurote, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Overview of escalator applications in rail transit

The difference in operating environment and in construction between escalators in transit and nontransit use, the impact of recent escalator innovations, and areas which could benefit from urban mass transportation administration sponsored research and development are determined. Several factors causing a more severe transit escalator operating environment are identified. There are no significant design differences between transit and nontransit escalators. Recent innovations that have affected performance and cost include outdoor escalators, extra flat steps at both landings, and modular escalators. Data were collected by interviews at transit agencies. Long term, unscheduled, escalator maintenance records were available for analysis from one property. A description of escalator operating principles is provided. Transit represents less than 5% of the U.S. escalator market. Transit agencies have limited leverage on escalator industry practices. A substantial impact on transit escalator cost and performance can be achieved by research identifying when and how to apply and specify several of the more recent innovations. Purchase of escalators under long term (25 year) maintenance contracts is one method that has been used to promote escalators manufactured for minimum life cycle cost.

Deshpande, G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Software to Control and Monitor Gas Streams

This software package interfaces with various gas stream devices such as pressure transducers, flow meters, flow controllers, valves, and analyzers such as a mass spectrometer. The software provides excellent user interfacing with various windows that provide time-domain graphs, valve state buttons, priority- colored messages, and warning icons. The user can configure the software to save as much or as little data as needed to a comma-delimited file. The software also includes an intuitive scripting language for automated processing. The configuration allows for the assignment of measured values or calibration so that raw signals can be viewed as usable pressures, flows, or concentrations in real time. The software is based on those used in two safety systems for shuttle processing and one volcanic gas analysis system. Mass analyzers typically have very unique applications and vary from job to job. As such, software available on the market is usually inadequate or targeted on a specific application (such as EPA methods). The goal was to develop powerful software that could be used with prototype systems. The key problem was to generalize the software to be easily and quickly reconfigurable. At Kennedy Space Center (KSC), the prior art consists of two primary methods. The first method was to utilize Lab- VIEW and a commercial data acquisition system. This method required rewriting code for each different application and only provided raw data. To obtain data in engineering units, manual calculations were required. The second method was to utilize one of the embedded computer systems developed for another system. This second method had the benefit of providing data in engineering units, but was limited in the number of control parameters.

Arkin, C.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Economics of Advanced In-Space Propulsion

The cost of access to space is the single biggest driver is commercial space sector. NASA continues to invest in both launch technology and in-space propulsion. Low-cost launch systems combined with advanced in-space propulsion offer the greatest potential market capture. Launch market capture is critical to national security and has a significant impact on domestic space sector revenue. NASA typically focuses on pushing the limits on performance. However, the commercial market is driven by maximum net revenue (profits). In order to maximum the infusion of NASA investments, the impact on net revenue must be known. As demonstrated by Boeing's dual launch, the Falcon 9 combined with all Electric Propulsion (EP) can dramatically shift the launch market from foreign to domestic providers.

electric propulsion↗
NASA NTRS1978

Market definition studies for photovoltaic highway applications

Prospects for solar electric power in applications related to highways within the continental United States are examined. Principal prospective users are found to be the highway departments of the various states. Economic analysis is employed to demonstrate that suitable applications can occur when powering apparatus such as signs, crossing signals, or instruments which consume less than 100 watts on the average, provided they are located at least one-half mile from existing utility power. Such applications are projected to occur two or three times per state per year. Attitudes of highway officials toward possible use of solar power are sampled and described. Although falling photovoltaic cell prices are expected to have little effect on sales potential here, methods for federal stimulation of this market are discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1984

Marketing the use of the space environment for the processing of biological and pharmaceutical materials

The perceptions of U.S. biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies concerning the potential use of the space environment for the processing of biological substances was examined. Physical phenomena that may be important in space-base processing of biological materials are identified and discussed in the context of past and current experiment programs. The capabilities of NASA to support future research and development, and to engage in cooperative risk sharing programs with industry are discussed. Meetings were held with several biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies to provide data for an analysis of the attitudes and perceptions of these industries toward the use of the space environment. Recommendations are made for actions that might be taken by NASA to facilitate the marketing of the use of the space environment, and in particular the Space Shuttle, to the biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Storage System Cost Analysis (2017-2021) (Final Report)

This final technical report summarizes hydrogen storage system cost analysis results from 2017-2021. Results include onboard hydrogen storage system costs for light-duty vehicles, medium-duty vehicles, heavy-duty vehicles, class 8 long haul trucks, and passenger buses. Multiple storage systems are included, primarily focusing on compressed and cryo-compressed hydrogen in Type 3 and Type 4 storage systems. Additional analysis includes large-scale gaseous and liquid hydrogen storage at refueling stations in tube trailers and Dewars; advanced materials-based storage systems such as metal organic frameworks and metal hydrides; and a baseline setting analysis of compressed natural gas storage systems in support of the Institute for Advanced Composites Manufacturing Initiative (IACMI). Analyses were primarily conducted using a Design for Manufacture and Assembly ® methodology, which is a bottom-up process-based approach to estimating factory costs. Multiple annual production rates are reported to project high-volume costs relevant to mature markets.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1984

An evaluation of programmer/analyst workstations

Very few automated tools were available to support software requirements analysis and design even though improvements in quality during these phases appear to offer the greatest leverage for improving the quality and productivity of the overall software development process. Recently, however, some such tools have appeared on the market. An industry survey, and an in-house evaluation of two commercial products by programmers and analysts was undertaken to determine which tool is the best to support programmers and analysts through life cycle development. A tool was selected for full implementation on a project, where complete analysis of software statistics over the system life cycle will determine whether or not quality and productivity improvements have actually occurred. The results of the industry survey and in-house evaluation are summarized.

Koerner, K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Meeting sustainable aviation fuel policy targets through first generation corn biorefineries

This paper investigates options to produce low carbon and renewable aviation fuel through existing commercial first generation biorefineries, which could be strategic given the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market for personal mobility. We evaluate the environmental impact of retrofitting a first generation biorefinery to produce aviation fuel through chemical process simulation. The analysis investigates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and displacing fossil fuel (petroleum-based jet kerosene) in the aviation fuel industry through using corn feedstocks in dry grind biorefineries to convert sugars to 1,4-dimethylcyclooctane (DMCO), which qualifies as renewable jet-A fuel blend and is infrastructure compatible. Further, the average life cycle GHG emissions for a baseline case and a scenario with carbon capture and storage (CCS) of fermentative CO 2 are 36 and 5g CO 2 e/MJ DMCO, respectively. Investment in CCS at the biorefinery and adoption of crop best management practices on farms are essential for mitigating the risks of induced land use change GHG emissions for existing corn biorefineries. DMCO as a low-carbon aviation fuel could be a strategic fuel product for retrofitting existing corn dry grind facilities. For aviation fuel supply, corn dry grind facilities could displace about 12% of jet fuel demand in the near term, which would meet sustainable aviation fuel policy targets. We conclude that corn-to-DMCO shows promise for near-term low-carbon fuel markets in the aviation industry and as a bridge to developing biomass-based jet fuel in the future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1996

Supersonic Gas-Liquid Cleaning System

The Supersonic Gas-Liquid Cleaning System Research Project consisted mainly of a feasibility study, including theoretical and engineering analysis, of a proof-of-concept prototype of this particular cleaning system developed by NASA-KSC. The cleaning system utilizes gas-liquid supersonic nozzles to generate high impingement velocities at the surface of the device to be cleaned. The cleaning fluid being accelerated to these high velocities may consist of any solvent or liquid, including water. Compressed air or any inert gas is used to provide the conveying medium for the liquid, as well as substantially reduce the total amount of liquid needed to perform adequate surface cleaning and cleanliness verification. This type of aqueous cleaning system is considered to be an excellent way of conducting cleaning and cleanliness verification operations as replacements for the use of CFC 113 which must be discontinued by 1995. To utilize this particular cleaning system in various cleaning applications for both the Space Program and the commercial market, it is essential that the cleaning system, especially the supersonic nozzle, be characterized for such applications. This characterization consisted of performing theoretical and engineering analysis, identifying desirable modifications/extensions to the basic concept, evaluating effects of variations in operating parameters, and optimizing hardware design for specific applications.

Kinney, Frank↗