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At least 577 records · Page 32

Investigating capacity credit sensitivity to reliability metrics and computational methodologies

Assigning capacity value to renewable energy sources (RES) is a challenge faced in planning their integration with the grid. The difficulties stem from the natural characteristics of variability and intermittency of wind and solar sources. The capacity credit (CC) analysis evaluates the system’s actual power output compared with a constant capacity generator, i.e., conventional generator and determines an effective capacity to use for planning and operation. Herein this paper presents different factors that could affect the CC of a system. Two methods are proposed to determine the CC, namely equivalent firm capacity (EFC) and effective load carrying capability (ELCC). Since these methods are based on satisfying reliability criteria, daily loss of load expectation (LOLE), hourly loss of load (LOLH), and expected energy not served (EENS) have been employed as indices. To obtain the CC value, both methods apply two techniques: traditional and optimization. Genetic algorithm (GA) is the optimization approach used in this paper. Then, this work compares the two techniques and shows the superior performance of the optimization approach. Two hybrid systems, stand-alone (SA) and grid-connected (GC) modes, are proposed and used as case studies. The hybrid systems consist of photovoltaic (PV), wind turbine (WT), and battery energy storage system (BESS). In this work, three different scenarios are used to compare capacity credit: system as a whole, only wind, and no batteries. Finally, sensitivity analysis is carried out to examine the impact of varying the wind speed, solar irradiation, and load. It is demonstrated that the choice of reliability index plays an important role in determining the capacity credit and it is shown that EENS is a more comprehensive and consistent index of reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mitigating Band Tailing in Kesterite Solar Absorbers: Ab Initio Quantum Dynamics

Open-circuit voltage deficits are limiting factors in kesterite solar cells. Addressing this issue by suppressing band tailing and nonradiative charge recombination is essential for enhancing the performance. We employ ab initio nonadiabatic molecular dynamics to elucidate the origin of band tailing and charge losses and propose a mitigation strategy. The simulations show that Cu–Zn disorder, associated with antisite defect clusters [Cu Zn +Zn Cu ], is a significant source of band tailing in kesterites, as evidenced by the much larger Urbach energy in disordered than ordered kesterites. Cu–Zn disorder gives rise to new sulfur-centered coordination polyhedra, increases structural inhomogeneity, changes electrostatic potential at sulfur centers, and shifts the S(3p) orbital energy. Differences in the S(3p)/Cu(3d) and S(3p)/Sn(5s) hybridization strengths and the S(3p) orbital energy shift reduce the band gap by 0.37 eV. Furthermore, Cu–Zn disorder enhances vibrational motion of sulfur anions and surrounding cations, increasing band gap fluctuations by 15 meV. The stronger electron–phonon interactions reduce charge carrier lifetimes and limit the kesterite solar cell efficiency. Partial substitution of Zn with Cd facilitates structural ordering and significantly suppresses band tailing, particularly in disordered systems. The improvement can be attributed to the larger atomic radius and mass of Cd, which weakens bonding around the anion, suppresses S-related vibrations within the covalent tetrahedra, and reduces nonadiabatic coupling, thereby increasing charge carrier lifetimes. The reported results establish the key influence of cation disorder on band tailing and reduced charge carrier lifetimes in kesterites and highlight cation disorder engineering as a strategy to achieve high-efficiency kesterite solar cells.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Confinement of relativistic electrons in a magnetic mirror en route to a magnetized relativistic pair plasma

Creating a magnetized relativistic pair plasma in the laboratory would enable the exploration of unique plasma physics relevant to some of the most energetic events in the universe. As a step toward a laboratory pair plasma, we have demonstrated an effective confinement of multi-MeV electrons inside a pulsed-power-driven 13 T magnetic mirror field with a mirror ratio of 2.6. The confinement is diagnosed by measuring the axial and radial losses with magnetic spectrometers. The loss spectra are consistent with ≤2.5 MeV electrons confined in the mirror for ∼1 ns. With a source of 1012 electron-positron pairs at comparable energies, this magnetic mirror would confine a relativistic pair plasma with Lorentz factor γ∼6 and magnetization σ∼40.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Inverter Reliability Estimation for Advanced Inverter Functionality

In the near future, grid operators are expected to regularly use advanced distributed energy resource (DER) functions, defined in IEEE 1547-2018, to perform a range of grid-support operations. Many of these functions adjust the active and reactive power of the device through commanded or autonomous modes, which will produce new stresses on the grid-interfacing power electronics components, such as DC/AC inverters. In previous work, multiple DER devices were instrumented to evaluate additional component stress under multiple reactive power setpoints. We utilize quasi-static time-series simulations to determine voltage-reactive power mode (volt-var) mission profile of inverters in an active power system. Mission profiles and loss estimates are then combined to estimate the reduction of the useful life of inverters from different reactive power profiles. It was found that the average lifetime reduction was approximately 0.15% for an inverter between standard unity power factor operation and the IEEE 1547 default volt-var curve based on thermal damage due to switching in the power transistors. For an inverter with an expected 20-year lifetime, the 1547 volt-var curve would reduce the expected life of the device by 12 days. This framework for determining an inverter's useful life from experimental and modeling data can be applied to any failure mechanism and advanced inverter operation.

component degradation↗

FY2022 Progress Report on Viscosity and Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Molten Salts

This report describes the development of and experimental measurements made with the thermal conductivity and viscosity measurement systems for molten salts at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The thermal conductivity system is based on a steady-state measurement technique in which a heat flux is driven across a variable gap, and the changes in temperature difference across the gap are measured as the gap size is varied. The system comprises an inner containment, which possesses the heating element, and an outer containment, which possesses the salt specimen and cooling channels. The gap is formed between the outer bottom of the inner containment and the inner bottom of the outer containment. The viscosity system is based on the falling-ball technique in which a salt-filled tubular crucible is fixed at an angle and a ball rolls through the salt. The terminal velocity of the ball can be converted into viscosity via a calibration factor calculated for crucible-ball combinations which account for thermal expansion and flow characteristics. Modifications were made to both systems this fiscal year. Modifications to the thermal conductivity system included adding guard heaters to prevent axial heating losses, and modifications to the viscosity system included changing the crucible design to prevent air pocket formation and providing the ability to conduct measurements with a glass or steel crucible.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improvement of Numerical Methods in Pronghorn

During the fiscal year of 2021, the finite-volume method (FVM) was deployed in Pronghorn to provide improved efficiency, stability, and accuracy for coarse-mesh, thermal-hydraulics problems. While the main goals of fiscal year 2021 were met, several issues emerged from the early deployment of the finite-volume method in Pronghorn. These issues were: The compressible and incompressible formulations that were implemented are inadequate for many nuclear reactor flow problems; Omission of terms accounting for the porosity and Darcy-Forchheimer body force discontinuities in the Rhie-Chow interpolation lead to oscillations in pressure and velocity at these discontinuities; The FVM lacks a correction for non-orthogonal grids for computing accurate pressure gradient leading to loss of accuracy in regions with skewed elements; The FVM currently uses a monolithic solver. Monolithic solvers have issues dealing with the saddle-point nature of the discretized fluid equations. The result are bad convergence if direct factorization is not used and large memory consumption when direct factorization is used. These four issues are addressed in this report. In particular, we report the completion of the following task: Implementation of a weakly compressible formulation in the MOOSE Navier-Stokes module; Implementation of Moukalled’s method for including body forces in the RCI. Additionally, we identified the need to smooth the porosity using Moukalled’s face-cell smoothing operator; Implementation of a non-orthogonal correction for the Green-Gauss gradient computation; Preliminary implementation of a SIMPLE segregated solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Economic Evaluation of a Coupled Nuclear Power Plant and Hydrogen Production Facility: A Case Study

This study optimized the design sizes and operation of a power-to-hydrogen-to-power integrated energy system to allow a baseload power plant to operate flexibly in the energy market. In collaboration with a utility industry partner, the system, consisting of an electrolyzer, compressors, storage tank, and fuel cell, was optimized under conditions specific to the proposed project at the site of a nuclear power plant. The Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) maximized net present value by optimizing sizing of components and dispatch decisions. Revenues included sale of electricity, capacity payments typical of the New York Independent System Operator, and the section 45V hydrogen production tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the tax credit was assumed to be available to legacy plants in the absence of clear guidance at present). Under default assumptions which excluded many capital expenditures, the base case optimized solution had a net present value of $\$$1.4 million over a 30 year lifetime, with a 0.365 MW fuel cell operating nearly continuously and 85% of revenues supplied by the hydrogen production tax credit (which was counted as a revenue regardless of profit, thus assuming credit monetization or offset of taxes within the larger firm was possible in all years). Beyond the base case, a sensitivity study elucidated drivers of the economics as capacity payment rate and hydrogen production tax credit rate vary. Additional sensitivity studies also extended results to variation of other, previously fixed parameters, including the fuel cell capital cost, and to imposition of further constraints. Optimization was also repeated for the default assumptions but recognizing tax credits upon use of hydrogen rather than upon its production, producing no change in the optimal solution. Most notably, capacity payments above $\$$15/kW-month drove optimal fuel cells multiple times larger than those with the default estimated capacity payment of $\$$2.5/kW-month (approaching 11 vs. 0.365 MW), and these larger fuel cells operated rarely (capacity factors of ~0.03). Furthermore, when the hydrogen production tax credit was provided for only 10 years, under the specific assumptions of this study (e.g., neither site preparation costs nor electrolyzer capital cost counted), the optimal solution avoided economic loss by ceasing system operation after the 10th year. Viewed broadly, this study demonstrated the capabilities of DISPATCHES, which can be user-adapted to serve other industrial case studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Preliminary Investigation of Target keff Search for Fuel Feed in MSRs

Fluid fuel molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts may achieve continuous-at-power operation with continuous or batch fresh fuel feed to counter reactivity loss from fuel burnup and fission product buildup. Accurate modeling and simulation of MSRs requires consideration of online fuel feed during depletion as well as a capability to determine the required feed amount to maintain a target multiplication factor (keff). As a first step supporting a full implementation of a new search capability into the SCALE code system’s TRITON reactor physics and depletion sequence, a preliminary investigation was performed to identify the best approach for a critical feed search capability considering computation time and accuracy. Using a simple iterative approach in which initial feed amounts were guessed based on previous depletion steps, the main drivers of computation time were found as the Monte Carlo neutron transport settings and the applied tolerance for the target keff. In the applied model, with tight convergence criteria (keff convergence to 8 pcm and a tolerance of ±15 pcm), the critical search calculation required twice the number of neutron transport calculations compared to a depletion calculation without critical search. In contrast, with a relaxed tolerance of ±50 pcm, the overall computation time for the critical search for merely increased by 30-40%. Further studies will be performed before implementing the critical search capability into TRITON.

Faulkner, Jonathon [ORNL]↗

The Influence of Land‐Surface Conditions on the 2020–2021 Western US Drought

Abstract In summer 2021, 90% of the western United States (WUS) experienced drought, with over half of the region facing extreme or exceptional conditions, leading to water scarcity, crop loss, ecological degradation, and significant socio‐economic consequences. Beyond the established influence of oceanic forcing and internal atmospheric variability, this study highlights the importance of land‐surface conditions in the development of the 2020–2021 WUS drought, using observational data analysis and novel numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that the soil moisture state preceding a meteorological drought, due to its intrinsic memory, is a critical factor in the development of soil droughts. Specifically, wet soil conditions can delay the transition from meteorological to soil droughts by several months or even nullify the effects of La Niña‐driven meteorological droughts, while drier conditions can exacerbate these impacts, leading to more severe soil droughts. For the same reason, soil droughts can persist well beyond the end of meteorological droughts. Our numerical experiments suggest a relatively weak soil moisture‐precipitation coupling during this drought period, corroborating the primary contributions of the ocean and atmosphere to this meteorological drought. Additionally, drought‐induced vegetation losses can mitigate soil droughts by reducing evapotranspiration and slowing the depletion of soil moisture. This study highlights the importance of soil moisture and vegetation conditions in seasonal‐to‐interannual drought predictions. Findings from this study have implications for regions like the WUS, which are experiencing anthropogenically‐driven soil aridification and vegetation greening, suggesting that future soil droughts in these areas may develop more rapidly, become more severe, and persist longer.

Jiang, Yelin [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Col↗

The role of mab‐3 in spermatogenesis and ontogenesis of pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus

Abstract Background Bursaphelenchus xylophilus is one of the most destructive invasive species, causing extensive economic losses worldwide. The sex ratio of female to male of B. xylophilus plays an important role in the nematode infestation. However, little is known about the processes of its sex determination. The double sex/mab‐3‐related family of transcription factors are highly conserved in animals, playing crucial roles in sex determination, spermatogenesis and ontogenesis. We therefore investigated its orthologue, Bxy‐mab‐3 , in B. xylophilus . Results Bxy‐mab‐3 has two typical conserved DNA‐binding domains. It was observed in J2 (the second‐stage of juveniles), J3, J4 and male adults (specifically on the spicules), but not in eggs or female adults via mRNA in situ hybridization. RNA‐Seq indicated significantly higher expression in males. RNAi showed that the body size and sperm size of male adults were markedly smaller than those of the controls. Meanwhile, almost all the RNAi‐treated males failed to mate with the normal females, even 26.34% of interfered males did not produce sperm. However, RNAi of Bxy‐mab‐3 had no effect on the sex ratio of B. xylophilus . Conclusion Bxy‐mab‐3 is indispensable for spermatogenesis, ontogenesis and mating behavior. It is a typical sex‐determination gene with differential expression in males and females. However, knocking down Bxy‐mab‐3 expression could not alter the sex ratio as seen in other species. Our findings contribute towards a better understanding of the molecular events of Bxy‐mab‐3 in B. xylophilus , which provides promising hints for control of pine wilt disease by blocking ontogenesis and decreasing nematode fecundity.

Zhou, Lifeng↗

Measurement of beauty production via non-prompt D 0 mesons in Pb-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{{\textrm{s}}_{\textrm{NN}}} $ = 5.02 TeV

The production of non-prompt D 0 mesons from beauty-hadron decays was measured at midrapidity (|y| < 0.5) in Pb-Pb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 5.02 TeV with the ALICE experiment at the LHC. Their nuclear modification factor (R AA ), measured for the first time down to p T = 1 GeV/c in the 0–10% and 30–50% centrality classes, indicates a significant suppression, up to a factor of about three, for p T > 5 GeV/c in the 0–10% central Pb-Pb collisions. The data are described by models that include both collisional and radiative processes in the calculation of beauty-quark energy loss in the quark-gluon plasma, and quark recombination in addition to fragmentation as a hadronisation mechanism. The ratio of the non-prompt to prompt D 0 -meson R AA is larger than unity for p T > 4 GeV/c in the 0–10% central Pb-Pb collisions, as predicted by models in which beauty quarks lose less energy than charm quarks in the quark-gluon plasma because of their larger mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Mitigation of shunt in poly -Si/SiO$_{x}$ passivated interdigitated back contact monocrystalline Si solar cells by self-aligned etching between doped fingers

Polycrystalline silicon on silicon oxide (poly-Si/SiO x ) passivating contacts can be used for ultra-high-efficiency interdigitated back contact (IBC) monocrystalline silicon solar cells. We evaluate the use of intrinsic poly-Si for the region that isolates the p- and n-type fingers at the back side of IBC devices. To mitigate shunt across the isolation region between the doped p- and n-type fingers, we demonstrate self-aligned subtractive processing by etching the poly-Si in the isolation region using SF6 plasma followed by etching in a tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH) solution. After removal of the poly-Si, the isolation region was passivated with SiN x and Al 2 O 3 , which resulted in an 11.7% increase in the fill factor in a 19.8% efficient device. Furthermore, we evaluate the limitations of this device through Suns-V oc analysis and simulations using SunSolve and Quokka3 solar cell simulation software. Through Quokka3, we show that the most significant efficiency losses come from junction recombination current (J 02 ) in the isolation region between doped fingers. We predict that the cell efficiency can be most improved with reduced J 02 through better isolation of heavily doped fingers by etching the isolation region deeper into the bulk or through enhanced surface chemical passivation in this region.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High resolution diagnostic tools for superconducting radio frequency cavities

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities are one of the fundamental building blocks of modern particle accelerators. To achieve the highest quality factors (10 10 –10 11 ), SRF cavities are operated at liquid helium temperatures. Magnetic flux trapped on the surface of SRF cavities during cool-down below the critical temperature is one of the leading sources of residual RF losses. Instruments capable of detecting the distribution of trapped flux on the cavity surface are in high demand in order to better understand its relation to the cavity material, surface treatments and environmental conditions. We have designed, developed, and commissioned two high-resolution diagnostic tools to measure the distribution of trapped flux at the surface of SRF cavities. One is a magnetic field scanning system, which uses cryogenic Hall probes and anisotropic magnetoresistance sensors that fit the contour of a 1.3 GHz cavity. This setup has a spatial resolution of ~ 13 μm in the azimuthal direction and ~ 1 cm along the cavity contour. The second setup is a stationary, combined magnetic and temperature mapping system, which uses anisotropic magnetoresistance sensors and carbon resistor temperature sensors, covering the surface of a 3 GHz SRF cavity. This system has a spatial resolution of 5 mm close to the iris and 11 mm at the equator. Initial results show a non-uniform distribution of trapped flux on the cavities’ surfaces, dependent on the magnitude of the applied magnetic field during field-cooling below the critical temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Aureochromes maintain polyunsaturated fatty acid content in Nannochloropsis oceanica

Abstract Nannochloropsis oceanica, like other stramenopile microalgae, is rich in long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFAs) such as eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA). We observed that fatty acid desaturases (FADs) involved in LC-PUFA biosynthesis were among the strongest blue light-induced genes in N. oceanica CCMP1779. Blue light was also necessary for maintaining LC-PUFA levels in CCMP1779 cells, and growth under red light led to a reduction in EPA content. Aureochromes are stramenopile-specific proteins that contain a light–oxygen–voltage (LOV)-sensing domain that associates with a flavin mononucleotide and is able to sense blue light. These proteins also contain a basic leucine zipper DNA-binding motif and can act as blue light-regulated transcription factors by associating with an E-box like motif, which we found enriched in the promoters of blue light-induced genes. We demonstrated that, in vitro, two CCMP1779 aureochromes were able to absorb blue light. Moreover, the loss or reduction of the expression of any of the three aureochrome genes led to a decrease in the blue light-specific induction of several FADs in CCMP1779. EPA content was also significantly reduced in NoAUREO2 and NoAUREO4 mutants. Taken together, our results indicate that aureochromes mediate blue light-dependent regulation of LC-PUFA content in N. oceanica CCMP1779 cells.

Plant Sciences↗

IFNgamma-inducible CXCL10/CXCR3 axis alters the sensitivity of HEp-2 cells to ionizing radiation

Highlights: • IFNgamma/CXCL10/CXCR3 are necessary for effective IR-induced HEp-2 cell killing. • Local IR showed fewer effects on tumor burden in mice carrying CXCL10-KO xenografts. • Loss of CXCL10 showed blockage in the G0/G1 phase when exposed to a moderate dose of IR. Radiotherapy is a conventional approach for anti-cancer treatment, killing tumor cells through damaging cellular DNA. While increasing studies have demonstrated that tumors generated the tolerance to radiation and tumor immune system was found to be correlated to radiotherapy resistance. Therefore, it is critical to identify potential immune factors associated with the efficacy of radiotherapy. Here in this study, we evaluated the sensitivities of different tumor cells to radiation and determined HEp-2 cells as the radio-resistant tumor cells for further investigation. IFNgamma as a key regulator of host immune response showed the potential to sensitize tumors to ionizing radiation (IR). Besides, IFNgamma-induced CXC chemokine ligand 10 (CXCL10) was found to be necessary for effective IR-induced killing of cultured HEp-2 cells. Increased clonogenic survival was observed in CXCL10-depleted HEp-2 cells and CXCL10-KO cells. Additionally, the loss of CXCL10 in HEp-2 cells showed less progression of the G0/G1 phase to G2/M when exposed to IR (8 Gy). Local IR (20 Gy) to nude mice bearing HEp-2 tumors significantly reduced tumor burden, while fewer effects on tumor burden in mice carrying CXCL10-KO tumors were observed. We furtherly evaluated the possible roles the chemokine receptor CXCR3 plays in mediating the sensitivity of cultured HEp-2 cells to IR. Altered expression of CXCR3 in HEp-2 cells affected IR-induced killing of HEp-2 cells. Our data suggest the IFNgamma-activated CXCL10/CXCR3 axis may contribute to the effective radiation-induced killing of HEp-2 cells in vitro.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗