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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced analysis of experimental x-ray spectra through deep learning

X-ray spectroscopic data from high-energy-density laser-produced plasmas has long required thorough, time-consuming analysis to extract meaningful source conditions. There are often confounding factors due to rapidly evolving states and finite spatial gradients (e.g., the existence of multi-temperature, multi-density, multi-ionization states, etc.) that make spectral measurements and analysis difficult. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning can be applied to enhance x-ray spectral data analysis in both speed and intricacy. Neural networks (NNs) are trained on ensemble atomic physics simulations so that they can subsequently construct a model capable of extracting plasma parameters directly from experimental spectra. Through deep learning, the models can extract temperature distributions as opposed to single or dual temperature/density fits from standard trial-and-error atomic modeling at a significantly reduced computational cost compared to traditional trial-and-error methods. These NNs are envisioned to be deployed with high repetition rate x-ray spectrometers in order to provide detailed real-time analysis of experimental spectra.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searching for a Pulse: Evaluating the Use of Rapid DC Pulses for Diagnosing Battery Health, State-of-Charge, and Safety

Rapid electrochemical diagnostics, like DC pulse sequences or electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, are known to be useful for capacity prediction. However, it is unclear how previous results will map to different cell types and use cases and whether rapid diagnostics are useful for remaining useful life prediction or for detecting potential safety issues. To that end, we have collected a data set with ∼50,000 DC pulse measurements from four types of commercial lithium-ion batteries to enable training of state-of-charge, health, and safety diagnostic models via machine-learning. We demonstrate that 120-second DC pulse sequences can be used to predict capacity with 2%–9% average error, which can separate high- from low-capacity cells with only a 0.3% false positive rate but is not accurate enough to estimate remaining useful life. We also find that no safety related targets can be accurately predicted, highlighting the critical need for other non-invasive methods to diagnose battery safety.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structured electrolytes facilitate Grotthuss-type transport for enhanced proton-coupled electron transfer reactions

Concentrated hydrogen-bonded electrolytes (CoHBEs) are structured, electrochemically stable, less-volatile alternatives to aqueous and dilute nonaqueous electrolytes, however, with high viscosities that limit molecular diffusion. This work provides an understanding of the proton conduction mechanism in CoHBEs based on mixtures of acids and azoles and establishes a link between the structurally dictated transport properties and the proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) reaction rates that can be leveraged for enhancing electrochemical reactions. Diffusion and relaxation NMR studies suggest a breaking of the viscosity–conductivity tradeoff, where at high azole concentrations (>45 mol%), Grotthuss transport is more likely with lowered proton transfer energy barriers between the azole and the acid according to the machine learning (ML) accelerated ab initio path integral MD (AI-PIMD) simulations. Proton conduction pathways are found to be switchable between the hydrogen bonding networks of the acid and the azole, with imidazole chain forming structures better facilitating Grotthuss hopping. Supported by small-angle neutron scattering studies, the chains are found to have six member molecules on average with maximum of 3 to 4 imidazole/imidazoliums at 50 to 60 mol%. Despite their high viscosities, the measured PCET rates for quinones and phenazines measured in the protic CoHBEs present relatively high electron transfer rate constants (k 0 ~ 10 −4 cm/s), validated by rotating disc electrode and scanning electrochemical microscopy measurements. The results demonstrate that strategic tuning of hydrogen-bond donor–acceptor interactions enables the decoupling of proton transport and viscosity, thereby impacting PCET reactions.

electrokinetics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rocket Launch Detection with Smartphone Audio and Transfer Learning

Rocket launches generate infrasound signatures that have been detected at great distances. Due to the sparsity of the networks that have made these detections, however, most signals are detected tens of minutes to hours after the rocket launch. In this work, a method of near-real-time detection of rocket launches using data from a network of smartphones located 10–70 km from launch sites is presented. A machine learning model is trained and tested on the open-access Aggregated Smartphone Timeseries of Rocket-generated Acoustics (ASTRA), Smartphone High-explosive Audio Recordings Dataset (SHAReD), and ESC-50 datasets, resulting in a final accuracy of 97% and a false positive rate of <1%. The performance and behavior of the model are summarized, and its suitability for persistent monitoring applications is discussed.

acoustics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning Models for Mapping Groundwater Pollution Risk: Advancing Water Security and Sustainable Development Goals in Georgia, USA

The widespread use of pesticides, such as atrazine and malathion, in agricultural systems raises significant concerns regarding the contamination of groundwater, which serves as a critical resource for drinking water. This study applies machine learning techniques to predict the concentrations of atrazine and malathion in groundwater across Georgia, USA, using 2019 data. A Random Forest classifier was employed to integrate various environmental and demographic factors, including pesticide application rates, precipitation, lithology, and population density, to predict pesticide contamination in groundwater. The models demonstrated high training accuracies of 100% and moderate average testing accuracy of 55% for atrazine and 60% for malathion across five iterations. The low test accuracy of the model, ranging from 50% to 75%, is likely due to overfitting, which can be attributed to the small dataset size and the complex nature of pesticide-contamination patterns, making it challenging for the model to generalize to unseen data. Feature importance analysis revealed that average pesticide usage emerged as the most influential factor for atrazine, while aquifer lithology and precipitation played crucial roles in both models. These results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of pesticide contamination, highlighting areas at greater risk of contamination. The findings underscore the importance of integrating environmental, geological, and agricultural variables for more effective groundwater management and sustainable agricultural practices, contributing to the protection of water resources and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial testing of Alfvén eigenmode feedback control with machine-learning observers on DIII-D

A first of its kind fully data-driven system has been developed and implemented into the DIII-D plasma control system to detect and control Alfvén eigenmodes (AE) in real-time. Susceptibility to fast ion-induced AE is a challenge in fully non-inductive tokamak operation, which significantly reduces fast-particle confinement and results in degraded fusion gain. Controlling AEs in real-time to improve fast-ion confinement is, hence, important for future advanced tokamak fusion reactors. The models were implemented and tested in experiments which showed that neural networks (NN) are highly effective in detecting 5 types of AE (BAE, EAE, LFM, RSAE, TAE) using high resolution ECE. To estimate the neutron deficit, a NN has been trained that outputs the classical neutron rate using similar inputs to NUBEAM. Also a preliminary ML-based proportional control has been designed and gone through initial testing in experiment to use feedback-control on the neutral beam power to achieve desired amplitude of AE modes and neutron deficits. The effect of AEs on fast-ion confinement is measured by analysing the gap in classical neutron rate from the proposed NN-based NUBEAM and the measured neutron rate.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗
DOE OSTI2025

HAMscope: a snapshot Hyperspectral Autofluorescence Miniscope for real-time molecular imaging

We introduce HAMscope, a compact, snapshot hyperspectral autofluorescence miniscope that enables real-time, label-free molecular imaging in a wide range of biological systems. By integrating a thin polymer diffuser into a widefield miniscope, HAMscope spectrally encodes each frame and employs a probabilistic deep learning framework to reconstruct 30-channel hyperspectral stacks (452-703 nm) or directly infer molecular composition maps from single images. A scalable multi-pass U-Net architecture with transformer-based attention and per pixel uncertainty estimation enables high spatio-spectral fidelity (mean absolute error ∼0.0048) at video rates. While initially demonstrated in plant systems, including lignin, chlorophyll, and suberin imaging in intact poplar and cork tissues, the platform is readily adaptable to other applications such as neural activity mapping, metabolic profiling, and histopathology. We show that the system generalizes to out-of-distribution tissue types and supports direct molecular mapping without the need for spectral unmixing. HAMscope establishes a general framework for compact, uncertainty-aware spectral imaging that combines minimal optics with advanced deep learning, offering broad utility for real-time biochemical imaging across neuroscience, environmental monitoring, and biomedicine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real-time charged track reconstruction for CLAS12

Abstract This paper presents the results of charged particle track reconstruction in CLAS12 using artificial intelligence. In our approach, we use machine learning algorithms to reconstruct tracks, including their momentum and direction, with high accuracy from raw hits of the CLAS12 drift chambers. The reconstruction is performed in real-time, with the rate of data acquisition, and allows for the identification of event topologies in real-time. This approach revolutionizes the Nuclear Physics experiments' data processing, allowing us to identify and categorize the experimental data on the fly, and will lead to a significant reduction in experiment data processing. It can also be used in streaming readout applications leading to more efficient data acquisition and post-processing.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-to-end codesign of Hessian-aware quantized neural networks for FPGAs

Here, we develop an end-to-end workflow for the training and implementation of co-designed neural networks (NNs) for efficient field-programmable gate array (FPGA) hardware. Our approach leverages Hessian-aware quantization of NNs, the Quantized Open Neural Network Exchange intermediate representation, and the hls4ml tool flow for transpiling NNs into FPGA firmware. This makes efficient NN implementations in hardware accessible to nonexperts in a single open sourced workflow that can be deployed for real-time machine-learning applications in a wide range of scientific and industrial settings. We demonstrate the workflow in a particle physics application involving trigger decisions that must operate at the 40-MHz collision rate of the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Given the high collision rate, all data processing must be implemented on FPGA hardware within the strict area and latency requirements. Based on these constraints, we implement an optimized mixed-precision NN classifier for high-momentum particle jets in simulated LHC proton-proton collisions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Electrochemical Separations of Actinide/Fission Products via the Control of Nucleation and Growth of Electrodeposits. Final Report

This is the final report to the NEUP regarding the “Advanced Electrochemical Separations of Actinide/Fission products via the Control of Nucleation and Growth of Electrodeposits” project. This report describes the project activities conducted during the period October 01, 2016 through September 30, 2019. The report includes a brief statement of the project objectives and approach, followed by the details of the performed research activities and suggestion for the future work. It is well known that according to current knowledge the pyroprocessing of spent nuclear fuels invariably leads to the dendritic form of electrodeposits, which from technological point of view is undesirable for many reasons. The aim of this research was to study and preclude the formation of electrodeposits with dendritic morphology (of essential importance to FC-1 Program). This project is characterized with four novel study categories: (1) exploring electrodeposit morphology control by controlling the electrochemical deposition reaction rate, (2) the use of rotating disk electrode technique to distinguish the electrodeposition control modes (reaction rate vs. diffusion), (3) morphology studies of lanthanides (La) and actinides (U) in characteristic stages of nucleation and growth, (4) exploring the need for separation of electrochemical cell in compartments for cathodic and anodic reactions. All these study categories were applied on two distinct electrolyte systems (a) high temperature ionic liquids, i.e. molten LiCl-KCl salts, and (b) room temperature ionic liquids (compounds exclusively made of organic cations, and organic/inorganic anions). Because the quality (dense and smooth) of electrodeposits is a direct function of the electrochemical reduction rate (slower the better), the major expectation was that addition of organic molecules would provide the desired slowing down of electroreduction effect, avoiding the undesired dependence on mass transfer. What was learned is summarized in seven key areas.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automating Detection and Diagnosis of Faults, Failures, and Underperformance in PV Plants

The project developed hybrid physics-based and machine-learning methods for near-real-time detection of balance-of-system faults (e.g., string, combiner, and tracker outages) in utility-scale Photovoltaic plants, achieving over 50% true positive rates with under 10% false positives and significantly reducing engineering setup time. In the extended phase, the scope expanded to plant-level underperformance analysis and industry benchmarking through the SUPER.epri.com platform. SUPER standardizes data processing and performance metrics across more than 9 GWac and 120+ plants, enabling robust comparisons and insights into loss rates, inverter downtime, and capacity degradation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Acoustic Energy Release During the Laboratory Seismic Cycle: Insights on Laboratory Earthquake Precursors and Prediction

Abstract Machine learning can predict the timing and magnitude of laboratory earthquakes using statistics of acoustic emissions. The evolution of acoustic energy is critical for lab earthquake prediction; however, the connections between acoustic energy and fault zone processes leading to failure are poorly understood. Here, we document in detail the temporal evolution of acoustic energy during the laboratory seismic cycle. We report on friction experiments for a range of shearing velocities, normal stresses, and granular particle sizes. Acoustic emission data are recorded continuously throughout shear using broadband piezo‐ceramic sensors. The coseismic acoustic energy release scales directly with stress drop and is consistent with concepts of frictional contact mechanics and time‐dependent fault healing. Experiments conducted with larger grains (10.5 μm) show that the temporal evolution of acoustic energy scales directly with fault slip rate. In particular, the acoustic energy is low when the fault is locked and increases to a maximum during coseismic failure. Data from traditional slide‐hold‐slide friction tests confirm that acoustic energy release is closely linked to fault slip rate. Furthermore, variations in the true contact area of fault zone particles play a key role in the generation of acoustic energy. Our data show that acoustic radiation is related primarily to breaking/sliding of frictional contact junctions, which suggests that machine learning‐based laboratory earthquake prediction derives from frictional weakening processes that begin very early in the seismic cycle and well before macroscopic failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Universal energy-speed-accuracy trade-offs in driven nonequilibrium systems

The connection between measure theoretic optimal transport and dissipative nonequilibrium dynamics provides a language for quantifying nonequilibrium control costs, leading to a collection of thermodynamic speed limits, which rely on the assumption that the target probability distribution is perfectly realized. This is almost never the case in experiments or numerical simulations, so here we address the situation in which the external controller is imperfect. We obtain a lower bound for the dissipated work in generic nonequilibrium control problems that (1) is asymptotically tight and (2) matches the thermodynamic speed limit in the case of optimal driving. Along with analytically solvable examples, we refine this imperfect driving notion to systems in which the controlled degrees of freedom are slow relative to the nonequilibrium relaxation rate, and identify independent energy contributions from fast and slow degrees of freedom. Furthermore, we develop a strategy for optimizing minimally dissipative protocols based on optimal transport flow matching, a generative machine learning technique. Furthermore, this latter approach ensures the scalability of both the theoretical and computational framework we put forth. Crucially, we demonstrate that we can compute the terms in our bound numerically using efficient algorithms from the computational optimal transport literature and that the protocols we learn saturate the bound.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving Detection of Disease Re-emergence Using a Web-Based Tool (RED Alert): Design and Case Analysis Study

Background: Currently, the identification of infectious disease re-emergence is performed without describing specific quantitative criteria that can be used to identify re-emergence events consistently. This practice may lead to ineffective mitigation. In addition, identification of factors contributing to local disease re-emergence and assessment of global disease re-emergence require access to data about disease incidence and a large number of factors at the local level for the entire world. This paper presents Re-emerging Disease Alert (RED Alert), a web-based tool designed to help public health officials detect and understand infectious disease re-emergence. Objective: Our objective is to bring together a variety of disease-related data and analytics needed to help public health analysts answer the following 3 primary questions for detecting and understanding disease re-emergence: Is there a potential disease re-emergence at the local (country) level? What are the potential contributing factors for this re-emergence? Is there a potential for global re-emergence? Methods: We collected and cleaned disease-related data (eg, case counts, vaccination rates, and indicators related to disease transmission) from several data sources including the World Health Organization (WHO), Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), World Bank, and Gideon. We combined these data with machine learning and visual analytics into a tool called RED Alert to detect re-emergence for the following 4 diseases: measles, cholera, dengue, and yellow fever. We evaluated the performance of the machine learning models for re-emergence detection and reviewed the output of the tool through a number of case studies. Results: Our supervised learning models were able to identify 82%-90% of the local re-emergence events, although with 18%-31% (except 46% for dengue) false positives. This is consistent with our goal of identifying all possible re-emergences while allowing some false positives. The review of the web-based tool through case studies showed that local re-emergence detection was possible and that the tool provided actionable information about potential factors contributing to the local disease re-emergence and trends in global disease re-emergence. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first tool that focuses specifically on disease re-emergence and addresses the important challenges mentioned above.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗