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At least 577 records · Page 32

Robust In-Situ Strain Measurements to Monitor CO 2 Storage

The goal of this project was to develop and demonstrate robust instrumentation to monitor the in-situ strain tensor in order to improve the reliability and security of CO 2 storage in geologic formations. We met the original goals of the project and the major overarching accomplishment is the advancement of strain tensor monitoring from an intriguing concept to a commercially available technology with a solid foundation of novel instruments supported by theoretical analyses and validation experiments. The main accomplishments of the project are summarized below. We designed, built and evaluated nine new optical fiber strainmeters and tiltmeters using Michelson interferometers to measure deformation with ultra-high resolution at both shallow and deep point locations in the subsurface. These are the robust strainmeters that motivated the title of the project. We designed, built and evaluated a novel method of measuring distributed strain in optical fibers with nanostrain resolution, and cm-scale location, and sampling into the seismic band. The new method is called Coherence-length-gated Microwave Photonics Interfereometry (CMPI). CMPI technology has advantages over existing commercial DAS and DSS methods. We developed and demonstrated capabilities to deploy instruments in the field and used them to measure strain caused by ambient signals like barometric pressure and tides, as well as induced signals like surface loading and pore pressure changes from pumping tests. We deployed a working strainmeter at 1,700 ft depth, slightly above an active reservoir. This is to our knowledge the greatest depth a strainmeter has been deployed and the techniques we used can readily be extended to greater depths. Optical fiber borehole tensor strainmeter techology was advanced from a TRL 4 at the start, to a TRL of 7 at the conclusion of the project. The project included advances in simulations and theoretical analyses. We developed and demonstrated a computational workflow that uses machine learning to reduce the computational requirements and make it practical to use Bayesian inversion to solve large numerical poroelastic analyses needed to interpret strain tensor field data. We evaluated the strain tensor fields and time series that would be caused by leaks of CO 2 or other fluids from reservoirs. These simulations demonstrated that signals from leaks could be measured with instruments developed for the project, opening a potentially new method for ensuring storage security. We showed that strains in caprock can be used to estimate pressure in a reservoir. This avoids the need to drill monitoring wells into the reservoir, and it expands the capabilities of monitoring in the caprock. The project includes a derivation and application of a novel analytical solution to the strains in the vicinity of a pressurized poroelastic inclusion. This solution explains field data measured during injeciton tests at the North Avant Field, and it will simplify future interpretation of strain tensor data. The project included a broad range of experiments, and of the most significant is the characterization of the strain tensor at an array three strainmeters during six injection tests at the North Avant Field, Oklahoma. This demonstrated repeatability of the strain signal measured by the new instruments developed for the project, and it showed similarities between the strain signal at shallow depths and pressure in the underlying reservoir. We also demonstrated that useful strain data can be measured at reservoir depths. This confirms that strain tensor data can be measured throughout the caprock over a reservoir. The project demonstrated the feasibility of using the strain tensor and distributed strain measured in caprock during a variety of different well tests where the pumping rate was constant, sinusoidal and positive, or a periodic square wave with zero net rate. This further strengthens the validity of using strain data to characterize reservoirs and aquifers. We also demonstrated that strain caused be fluctuations of air pressure and water pressure in the vadose zone can be measured and interpreted, suggesting that high resolution distributed strain measurements hold promise for monitoring the vadose zone. The project partially supported nine graduate students in the Environmental Engineering, Hydrogeology, Electrical Engineering programs at Clemson University. The research was described in nine journal papers, 23 talks and conference abstracts. Additional journal papers are in preparation. A new company called Tensora was started to provide strainmeter technology for commercial applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Familiarization and Detection of Green Monopropellants Image

Ammonium dinitramide (ADN) and hydroxyl ammonium nitrate (HAN) are green monopropellants which will be appearing at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for processing in the next few years. These are relatively safe replacements for hydrazine as a monopropellant; however, little is known about methods of leak detection, vapor scrubbing, air emissions, or cleanup that will be required for safe and environmentally benign operations at KSC. The goal of this work is to develop leak detection and related technologies for the two new green monopropellants.

Green↗

In-situ Detection of Glovebox Glove Degradation Prior to Glove Failure; Effects on Safety, Waste, and Operational Costs - 20402

Glovebox glove pressure decay leak testing and analysis of the data can greatly improve glovebox safety, minimize Transuranic (TRU) glove waste, and minimize operational cost. It is well known, the weakest point of containment on a glovebox is the glove. Mitigating unplanned openings in gloves is critical to minimizing operational and safety costs in glovebox operations. Mitigating unplanned glove openings due to glove failures will be discussed in this paper. The lack of an engineered solution to determine a gloves operational life in nuclear operations, has lead to use of theoretical and manual subjective methods to determine the life and safety of a glovebox glove. Whether the glove is inspected visually prior to use, or gloves are changed regularly to theoretically avoid failure, both the operators PPE and the room are being exposed to contamination, or un-necessary amounts of TRU glove waste are being generated. Millions of dollars yearly in operational costs are spent on glove failures due to loss of production, incident analysis, regulatory audits, clean up, and paperwork. In a nuclear application, a glove failure could contaminate an operator and laboratory, shut down the operation for weeks, potentially create a regulatory audit, and potentially create a media frenzy; the damages to the organization can be astronomical. Elimination of glove failures is possible by tracking glove material degradation and setting limits to allow glove change when it becomes necessary, prior to glove failure. Analytical pressure decay leak testing allows the detection of material degradation, and in turn the ability to limit operational glove failures. A German based company called MK Versuchsanlagen, e.K., has developed an advanced Glove Integrity Testing System. The system, with its use of proprietary RFID and special software technology, is unique in its capabilities. The system is capable to perform highly accurate regular glove testing on any size glovebox line in minimal time. The system records and can analyze a tremendous amount of system data that in turn can determine, for example, a safe glove change time prior to a glove material failure. This paper will show how an advanced Glove Integrity Testing System can detect glove material degradation and help determine a safe change point prior to glove failure. Pressure decay curves of new gloves and recorded effects of accelerated aging on the glove over time will be shown. The use of this technology in nuclear facilities can greatly improve glovebox operational safety, minimize glovebox glove TRU waste, and save organizations tremendous costs in downtime, clean up, documentation, and potential regulatory review. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Processing and properties of SiC composites made via binder jet 3D printing and infiltration and pyrolysis of preceramic polymer

The effect of polymer infiltration and pyrolysis (PIP) cycles with polycarbosiloxane on the microstructure, air leak rate, and properties of SiC composites manufactured by a combination of binder jet 3D printing and PIP are reported. The density, Young’s modulus and flexural strength of disk-shaped components increased with the number of PIP cycles. In the case of density, it increased from 2.05 g/cm 3 in one PIP cycle to 2.33 g/cm 3 after three PIP cycles, while values of flexural strength and Young’s modulus at room temperature after three PIP cycles reached 66.8 ± 2.5 MPa and 69.5 ± 2.8 GPa, respectively. Conversely, the air leak rate was found to decrease with number of PIP cycles, and it reached a value of 4 mbar-liter/s after three cycles. The instantaneous coefficient of thermal expansion of the composite was found to change minimally with the number of PIP cycles and had a value of 4 ± 1.2 ppm/°C between 200°C and 1,000°C. Thermal conductivity was found to increase with number of PIP cycles and to decrease with temperature. For example, after 3 PIP cycles it was found to change from 6.72 ± 0.08 to 6.98 ± 0.08 W/mK at 25°C and 7.36 ± 0.08 to 7.96 ± 0.08 W/mK at 300°C. These values were lower than those of crystalline SiC because of the amorphous nature of the matrix and the presence of pores and cracks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Using bursty announcements for detecting BGP routing anomalies

Despite the robust structure of the Internet, it is still susceptible to disruptive routing updates that prevent network traffic from reaching its destination. Our research shows that BGP announcements that are associated with disruptive updates tend to occur in groups of relatively high frequency, followed by periods of infrequent activity. We hypothesize that we may use these bursty characteristics to detect anomalous routing incidents. In this work, we use manually verified ground truth metadata and volume of announcements as a baseline measure, and propose a burstiness measure that detects prior anomalous incidents with high recall and better precision than the volume baseline. We quantify the burstiness of inter-arrival times around the date and times of four large-scale incidents: the Indosat hijacking event in April 2014, the Telecom Malaysia leak in June 2015, the Bharti Airtel Ltd. hijack in November 2015, and the MainOne leak in November 2018; and three smaller scale incidents that led to traffic interception: the Belarusian traffic direction in February 2013, the Icelandic traffic direction in July 2013, and the Russian telecom that hijacked financial services in April 2017. Our method leverages the burstiness of disruptive update messages to detect these incidents. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this method can be used for routing anomaly detection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experimental and theoretical study of the restrained shrinkage cracking of early age well cement

The shrinkage cracking occurring in oil & gas well cement material is a major factor that reduces the cement sheath integrity and impairs the durability of an underground well. Shrinkage mainly takes place in the early hydration period of the cement, and the resulting restrained shrinkage cracking can form a leaking network for oil & gas or carbon dioxide stored in an underground reservoir. It is thus important to understand the early age behavior of well cement and the leaking pathway formation in the well. This study describes the application of the digital image correlation (DIC) method as a tool to measure the strain development and crack distributions of well cement in the lab during early phase changes. A theoretical model is presented to calculate the stress distribution built up in the cement sheath during early ages of well cement hydration, which helps to interpret the experimental observations and determine the major factors influencing the cracking sequences. This study presents the whole hydration – drying shrinkage – and cracking mechanism of early age well cement under restrained ring conditions experimentally and theoretically. Finally, the results offer useful insights on the key material and geometric parameters which control the fracture of a well cementing structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The evolution of seafloor venting from hydrate-sealed gas reservoirs

Here we use 3D seismic data to show that three rows of seafloor gas mounds can be traced downward to leak points that lie at the hydrate-gas contact within three individual dipping coarse-grained sand bodies in the Terrebonne Basin, Walker Ridge block 313, northern Gulf of Mexico. We predict the overpressure within the sand bodies by assuming that the gas pressure at the vent points equal the least principal stress. We interpret that free gas accumulates at the base of the hydrate stability zone, trapped by the overlying sand which has a high methane hydrate saturation. The free gas accumulates until the gas pressure at the base of the hydrate stability zone reaches the least principal stress in the overlying mudrock, whereupon hydraulic fractures form and fluids are vented to the surface. The warm rising fluids and perhaps localized exothermic formation of hydrate raise the local salinity and temperature. This process progressively shifts the base of the hydrate stability zone to shallower depths and dissociates the hydrate seal within the sand, which creates new leak points and results in the observed migration of the seafloor vents. Within the southwest corner of the Terrebonne Basin, this process has repeated multiple times within the Blue, Orange, and Green sands. Here this study shows how the hydrate stability zone can influence the location of fluid expulsion and in turn be affected by the warm, rising, saline fluids sealed by hydrate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Relative permeabilities for two-phase flow through wellbore cement fractures

Multiple fluids are likely to exist in fractures and flow paths associated with leaky wellbores, including liquids (e.g., crude oil) and gases (e.g., gas exsolved from liquid). These fluids occupy and move through different portions of the pore spaces within the fractures depending on many factors, including fluid properties, fracture size, and the amount of the different fluids. Upward leakage of any phase, through the fracture, can contaminate water-bearing formations, create hazardous surface conditions, and compromise the functionality of the wellbore. Early signs of wellbore leaks may be expressed by anomalous pressure behavior at surface monitoring points on cavern storage wells. These pressure anomalies are difficult to interpret, necessitating knowledge of the factors that affect the multiphase flow in fractures and porous media. These parameters are critical to modeling multiphase flow in fractures. This insight can guide further diagnosis and maximize leak remediation. Here, our study focuses on the relationship of the liquid–gas relative permeabilities for representative variable-aperture wellbore cement fracture. To obtain the relative permeability of each phase, two-phase flow tests were conducted where both fluids were flowing simultaneously through a fractured wellbore cement specimen under a range of factors, namely (1) aperture size, (2) capillary numbers, and (3) viscosity ratio. The flow experiments were conducted under a range of confining stresses and flow velocities, using nitrogen gas and silicone oils (of different viscosities) in a specially designed pressure vessel. The sum of gas and oil relative permeabilities were found to be less than one under all conditions, which indicates that the presence of one phase affects the permeability of the other phase, and vice versa. Since the gas phase flow conditions include a significant inertial flow component in addition to viscous flow, the inertial flow coefficients at different saturation states are presented. The factors affecting the relationship between the relative permeabilities are discussed in detail. A new mathematical model for estimating the relative permeability of wellbore cement fracture is presented and experimentally validated.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of reservoir parameters and wellbore permeability uncertainties on CO 2 and brine leakage potential at the Shenhua CO 2 Storage Site, China

Here, this paper describes a system-level risk assessment for the Shenhua CO 2 storage site, China, using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Integrated Assessment Model for Carbon Storage (NRAP-IAM-CS). Here, we begin by determining the optimal number of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to achieve CO 2 and brine leakage result convergence. Then, we calculate mass CO 2 and brine leakage to the atmosphere and a hypothetical shallow aquifer. Finally, we assess the geochemical impacts in the event of leakage as if there were a shallow freshwater aquifer at the Shenhua site. Simulation results show that leakage results tend to stabilize after 300 Monte Carlo simulations. When the three wells on site are assigned a permeability of 10 -11 m 2 (representing significantly leaking wells), moderate CO 2 and brine leakages occur, and the percentage of CO 2 leakage exceeds the threshold value we set based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This is, however, unlikely to be the case for the Shenhua site. For all the other scenarios, the CO 2 leakage is trivial although there is still the possibility of CO 2 leakage into the groundwater aquifer exceeding the 1% threshold over 1000 years, assuming constant legacy wellbore permeability. For the significantly leaking scenario, there is a 10% probability to have a moderate (2.7 × 10 7 m 3 ) leakage-affected volume in the shallow aquifer with the pH below 6.5, and a large (1.4 × 10 8 m 3 ) volume with the total dissolved solids (TDS) above 500 ppm, hence pH and TDS may be considered for site monitoring plans. Based on the simulation results, there is a very low probability of significant CO 2 /brine leakage through the existing wells at the Shenhua CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integrating risk assessment methods for carbon storage: A case study for the quest carbon capture and storage facility

This paper documents how tools developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) complement the Bowtie risk assessment approach through the demonstration of a risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for the Quest Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facility near Edmonton, Alberta with the NRAP Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP Open-IAM). The Bowtie risk assessment for the Quest CCS site was developed by Shell Canada Ltd., who operates the asset on behalf of the Athabasca Oil Sand Project — a joint venture, owned by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Chevron Canada and Shell Canada Ltd. The Quest Bowtie treats site risk comprehensively – considering a large set of technical and project risks (e.g., operational risks, above ground infrastructure, public perception, etc.). NRAP tools, methods, and analyses are focused on quantitative assessment of subsurface technical risks. NRAP-Open-IAM was used to evaluate potential groundwater impacts at the Quest site, i.e., a sufficient change above background groundwater quality levels to be measurable, should CO 2 and/or brine leak from the reservoir via a faulty and/or compromised wellbore. Our results show there is a low potential for groundwater impact and support a further reduction (from ~460 to 100 km 2 ) to the established AoR for the Quest site. Integrating both approaches early in the site characterization period could significantly benefit commercial-scale projects by drastically reducing the region over which leakage risks (e.g., legacy wells) need to be evaluated, i.e., the AoR. This is especially true for brownfield sites, which could contain hundreds to thousands of legacy wells. Further, basing monitoring network design on those regions where impacts are most likely to occur has the potential to facilitate more efficient deployment of monitoring technologies and improve the likelihood of detecting a leak should one occur.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Characteristic of cryogenic hydrogen flames from high-aspect ratio nozzles

Unintentional leaks at hydrogen fueling stations have the potential to form hydrogen jet flames, which pose a risk to people and infrastructure. The heat flux from these jet flames are often used to develop separation distances between hydrogen components and buildings, lot-lines, etc. The heat flux and visible flame length is well understood for releases from round nozzles, but real unintended leaks would be expected to be from higher aspect-ratio cracks. Here, we measured the visible flame length and heat-flux characteristics of cryogenic hydrogen flames from high-aspect ratio nozzles. Heat flux measurements from 5 radiometers were used to assess the single-point vs the multi-point methods for interpretation of heat flux sensor data, finding the axial distance of the sensor for a single-point heat flux measurement to be important. We compare the flame length and heat flux data to flames of both cryogenic and compressed hydrogen from round nozzles. The aspect ratio of the release does not affect the flame length or heat flux significantly, for a given mass flow under the range of conditions studied. The engineering correlations presented in this work enable the prediction of flame length and heat flux which can be used to assess risk at hydrogen fueling stations with liquid hydrogen and develop science-based separation distances for these stations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Historic and modern approaches for discovery of abandoned wells for methane emissions mitigation in Oil Creek State Park, Pennsylvania

Hundreds of oil wells were drilled along Oil Creek in Pennsylvania in the mid-16 1800s, birthing the modern oil industry. No longer in operation, many wells are now classified as abandoned, and, due to their age, their locations are either unknown or inaccurately recorded. These historic well sites present environmental, safety, and economic concerns in the form of possible methane leaks and physical hazards. Airborne magnetic and LiDAR surveys were conducted in the Pioneer Run watershed in Oil Creek State Park to find abandoned wells in a historically significant but physically challenging location. Wells were drilled in this area prior to modern geolocation and legal documentation. Although a large number of old wells were abandoned summarily without remediation of the site, much of the land area within Oil Creek State Park is now covered in trees and dense underbrush, which can obscure wellheads. The thick vegetation and steep terrain limited the possibility of ground-based surveys to easily find well sites for methane emissions studies. The data from remote sensing surveys were used to corroborate potential well locations from historic maps and photographs. Potential well sites were verified in a ground-based field survey and monitored for methane emissions. Two historic photographs documenting oil activity in the late 1800s were georeferenced using a combination of magnetic and LiDAR data. LiDAR data, which were more useful in georeferencing and in field verification, identified 290 field locations in the Pioneer Run watershed, 86% of which were possible well sites. Sixty-two percent of the ground-verified wells remained unplugged and comprised the majority of leaking wells. The mean methane emissions factor for unplugged wells was 0.027 ± 0.099 kg/day, lower than other Appalachian Basin methane emissions estimates. LiDAR was used for the first time, in combination with an airborne magnetic survey, to reveal underground oil industry features and inform well identification and remediation efforts in difficult-to-navigate regions. In the oldest oil fields, where well casing has been removed or wood conductor casing was installed, historic photographs provide additional lines of evidence for oil wells where ground disturbances have concealed surface features. Identification of well sites is necessary for mitigation efforts, as unplugged wells emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Structural Insights into the Mechanisms and Pharmacology of K 2P Potassium Channels

Leak currents, defined as voltage and time independent flows of ions across cell membranes, are central to cellular electrical excitability control. The K 2P (KCNK) potassium channel class comprises an ion channel family that produces potassium leak currents that oppose excitation and stabilize the resting membrane potential in cells in the brain, cardiovascular system, immune system, and sensory organs. Due to their widespread tissue distribution, K 2P s contribute to many physiological and pathophysiological processes including anesthesia, pain, arrythmias, ischemia, hypertension, migraine, intraocular pressure regulation, and lung injury responses. Structural studies of six homomeric K 2P s have established the basic architecture of this channel family, revealed key moving parts involved in K 2P function, uncovered the importance of asymmetric pinching and dilation motions in the K 2P selectivity filter (SF) C-type gate, and defined two K 2P structural classes based on the absence or presence of an intracellular gate. Further, a series of structures characterizing K 2P :modulator interactions have revealed a striking polysite pharmacology housed within a relatively modestly sized (~70 kDa) channel. Binding sites for small molecules or lipids that control channel function are found at every layer of the channel structure, starting from its extracellular side through the portion that interacts with the membrane bilayer inner leaflet. This framework provides the basis for understanding how gating cues sensed by different channel parts control function and how small molecules and lipids modulate K 2P activity. Such knowledge should catalyze development of new K 2P modulators to probe function and treat a wide range of disorders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Local electrical degradations of solid-state electrolyte by nm-scale operando imaging of ionic and electronic transports

We report on degradation mechanisms of solid-state electrolyte (SSE) based on insights from nm-scale ionic conduction and electronic leakage for solid-state batteries. The significantly different local degradations revealed by nm-scale ionic and electronic transport imaging demonstrate the need for this nm-scale investigation. State-of-the-art lithium-ion conductive glass ceramic (Li 2 O–Al 2 O 3 –SiO 2 –P 2 O5–TiO2-GeO2) SSE shows at least two types of degradations spatially separated within the SSE, namely: (1) ionic conduction blocking and slight electronic leaking and (2) highly electronic shunting. Degradation was significantly suppressed by application of a Li-containing polyacrylonitrile thin coating on both sides of the ceramic SSE. With this coating, the ionic conduction was not reduced by the extensive cycling; instead, it improved slightly, although accompanied by a slight increase in electronic leaking. Our nm-scale transport imaging was achieved using an atomic force microscopy (AFM)-based half-cell setup and a logarithmic-scale amplifier with current sensitivity down to the fA (10-15 A) range. This half-cell setup consisting of an AFM-probe/SSE/Li structure can distinguish the ionic from the electronic current by flipping the bias-voltage polarity. This nm-scale operando imaging opens up novel characterization of ionic and electronic transport in the field of solid-state batteries.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Friction surfacing and cold spray deposition for surface crack repair in austenitic stainless steels

Two technologies, friction surfacing (FS) and cold spray deposition (CSD), have been investigated for field repair of cracks in 304L austenitic stainless steel. Both technologies are low-heat-input, solid-state technologies that do not introduce the detrimental effects of solidification, such as compositionally segregated microstructures and shrinkage stresses. Friction surfacing was performed using a 304L stainless steel rod over the substrate of the same material. Further, the process was performed at a high spindle speed of 20,000 RPM allowing for process forces below 500N to be used effectively. Spherical gas-atomized 304L stainless steel powder, in size range of 25–44 µm, was used as feedstock powder for the cold spray process for deposition on 304L substrates. Both technologies showed leak-tight crack repair capabilities on ~30–50 µm wide simulated through-crack specimens based on helium leak tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An Analysis of Abandoned Oil Well Characteristics Affecting Methane Emissions Estimates in the Cherokee Platform in Eastern Oklahoma

Anthropogenic activities increase methane emissions, contributing to greenhouse gas levels and adversely affecting the environment. Abandoned oil and gas wells potentially leak methane, but data are limited. We analyze methane emissions from abandoned wells (n = 179) in the Cherokee Platform in Oklahoma, a previously unaccounted basin, and compare emissions factors (EFs) to those in the Greenhouse Gas Inventory. We compare the contribution of various characteristics to the propensity for leakage. Higher emissions were observed with shallower wells and with unplugged wells. Plugged wells (n = 20) had an average EF of 96 ± 429 g/day and 65 ± 294 g/day for unplugged wells (n = 159). The majority of wells had no detectable leak. We calculated ethane EFs based on geochemical analysis of gas samples, finding higher EFs for unplugged (1.2 ± 5.5 g/day) versus plugged (0.9 ± 4.6 g/day) wells. The data indicate that in addition to the location of abandoned wells, physical characteristics are necessary to consider in estimating methane emissions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismicity and Stress Associated With a Fluid-Driven Fracture: Estimating the Evolving Geometry

A coupled approach, combining the theory of rate- and state-dependent friction and methods from poroelasticity, forms the basis for a quantitative relationship between displacements and fluid leak-off from a growing fracture and changes in the rate of seismic events in the region surrounding the fracture. Poroelastic Green's functions link fracture aperture changes and fluid flow from the fracture to changes in the stress field and pore pressure in the adjacent formation. The theory of rate- and state-dependent friction provides a connection between Coulomb stress changes and variations in the rate of seismic events. Numerical modeling indicates that the Coulomb stress changes can vary significantly between formations with differing properties. The relationship between the seismicity rate changes and the changes in the formation stresses and fluid pressure is nonlinear, but a transformation produces a quantity that is linearly related to the aperture changes and fluid leak-off from the fracture. The methodology provides a means for mapping changes in seismicity into fracture aperture changes and to image an evolving fracture. An application to observed microseismicity associated with a hydrofracture reveals asymmetric fracture propagation within two main zones, with extended propagation in the upper zone. Furthermore, the time-varying volume of the fracture agrees with the injected volume, given by the integration of rate changes at the injection well, providing validation of the estimated aperture changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Light Transfers Through a Koch Shape Cloud

Abstract Modeling radiative transfer in a 3D cloudy atmosphere is critical to climate projections. A recently developed fast 3D radiation parameterization scheme gains some success in quantifying horizontal radiative transfer through cloud sides using cloud area fraction. Based on 3D Monte Carlo simulations of radiative transfer through an idealized single‐layer cloud with Koch‐shaped fractal geometry edges, here we show that radiative energy transport through cloud sides correlates more significantly with cloud area fraction than with cloud perimeter length. The results exemplify the importance of accounting for the horizontal radiative energy exchanges between cloud‐free and cloudy regions with cloud area fraction. Results from additional sensitivity simulations show that increased cloud vertical extent often enhances cloud‐side sunlight leak more significantly than cloud‐side sunlight interception. At low sun elevations, cloud‐side sunlight interception is enhanced more than cloud‐side sunlight leak does with the increase of cloud mass.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗