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NASA NTRS2017

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6-Part 4: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum Experiments and PMIP4 Sensitivity Experiments

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Kageyama, Masa↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aerosol Midlatitude Cyclone Indirect Effects in Observations and High-Resolution Simulations

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Mccoy, Daniel T.↗
NASA NTRS2017

International Space Station Lithium-Ion Battery Start-Up and Cycling

The International Space Station (ISS) primary Electric Power System (EPS) was originally designed to use Nickel-Hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries to store electrical energy. The electricity for the ISS is generated by its solar arrays, which charge batteries during insolation for subsequent discharge during eclipse. The Ni-H2 batteries were designed to operate at a 35 depth of discharge (DOD) maximum during normal operation in a Low Earth Orbit. In 2010, the ISS Program began the development of Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries to replace Ni-H2 batteries approaching the end of their useful life and concurrently funded a Li-Ion ORU (Orbital Replacement Unit) and cell life testing project. The first set of 6 Li-ion battery replacements was launched in December 2016 and deployed in January 2017. This paper will discuss the Li-ion battery on-orbit cycling and the status of the Li-Ion cell and ORU life cycle testing.

International Space Station↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Geology of the Pluto System

NASA's New Horizons mission acquired a large set of images and other data making possible thorough geological analysis of landscapes in the Pluto System. Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Systematic investigation, modelling and mapping revealed that much of Pluto's surface is attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many mapped valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required long periods of internal heating, such as Pluto's extensive tectonic fabric. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planitia are thought to be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. The prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planitia, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. These multi-km-high mound features might be cryo-volcanoes. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. East of Sputnik Planitia are large fields of aligned ranks of sharp-crested ridges found only at high altitude that are apparently composed of massive deposits of CH4 ice, referred to as Bladed Terrain. New Horizons found evidence that Bladed Terrain may cover much of Pluto's low latitudes and may have originally formed there as a consequence of Pluto's very high obliquity. Currently Bladed Terrain is undergoing net erosion. This observation, along with evidence for formally more extensive nitrogen glaciation implies that Pluto undergoes significant climate evolution. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident in the mapping of Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Breakthrough Propulsion Architecture for Interstellar Precursor Missions: Phase I Final Report

Our breakthrough propulsion architecture is an innovative way to take advantage of kilometer-scale, multi-hundred megawatt, space-based, phased-array lasers to enable rapid transportation throughout the solar system. In this architecture, the laser would beam power over distances of up to 40 AU increasing the available power density relative to solar insolation by two orders of magnitude. The receiving vehicle would have a photovoltaic array with cells tuned to the laser frequency that outputs a voltage of 6 kV to directly-drive a lithium-fueled gridded ion thruster system at an ultra-high specific impulse of 40,000 s. Such a system could enable final spacecraft speeds of greater than 40 AU/year, potentially enabling missions to the solar gravity lens focus at 550 AU in less than 15 years. This is the propulsion architecture of the 22nd century.

Brophy, John↗
NASA NTRS2014

On the Frequency of Potential Venus Analogs from Kepler Data

The field of exoplanetary science has seen a dramatic improvement in sensitivity to terrestrial planets over recent years. Such discoveries have been a key feature of results from the Kepler mission which utilizes the transit method to determine the size of the planet. These discoveries have resulted in a corresponding interest in the topic of the Habitable Zone and the search for potential Earth analogs. Within the solar system, there is a clear dichotomy between Venus and Earth in terms of atmospheric evolution, likely the result of the large difference (approximately a factor of two) in incident flux from the Sun. Since Venus is 95% of the Earth's radius in size, it is impossible to distinguish between these two planets based only on size. In this Letter we discuss planetary insolation in the context of atmospheric erosion and runaway greenhouse limits for planets similar to Venus. We define a "Venus Zone" in which the planet is more likely to be a Venus analog rather than an Earth analog. We identify 43 potential Venus analogs with an occurrence rate (η♀) of 0.32 (+0.05/-0.07) and 0.45 (+0.06/-0.09) for M dwarfs and GK dwarfs, respectively.

planetary systems↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Geology of Pluto and Charon as Revealed by New Horizons

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft has revealed that Pluto and Charon exhibit strikingly different surface appearances, despite their similar densities and presumed bulk compositions. Much of Pluto's surface can be attributed to surface-atmosphere interactions and the mobilization of volatile ices by insolation. Many valley systems appear to be the consequence of glaciation involving nitrogen ice. Other geological activity requires or required internal heating. The convection and advection of volatile ices in Sputnik Planum can be powered by present-day radiogenic heat loss. On the other hand, the prominent mountains at the western margin of Sputnik Planum, and the strange, multi-km-high mound features to the south, probably composed of H2O, are young geologically as inferred by light cratering and superposition relationships. Their origin, and what drove their formation so late in Solar System history, is under investigation. The dynamic remolding of landscapes by volatile transport seen on Pluto is not unambiguously evident on Charon. Charon does, however, display a large resurfaced plain and globally engirdling extensional tectonic network attesting to its early endogenic vigor.

Moore, Jefrey M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Overview of Primitive Object Volatile Explorer (PrOVE) CubeSat or Smallsat Concept

Here we describe the Primitive Object Volatile Explorer (PrOVE), a smallsat mission concept to study the surface structure and volatile inventory of comets in their perihelion passage phase when volatile activity is near peak. CubeSat infrastructure imposes limits on propulsion systems, which are compounded by sensitivity to the spacecraft disposal state from the launch platform and potential launch delays. We propose circumventing launch platform complications by using waypoints in space to park a deep space SmallSat or CubeSat while awaiting the opportunity to enter a trajectory to flyby a suitable target. In our Planetary Science Deep Space SmallSat Studies (PSDS3) project, we investigated scientific goals, waypoint options, potential concept of operations (ConOps) for periodic and new comets, spacecraft bus infrastructure requirements, launch platforms, and mission operations and phases. Our payload would include two low-risk instruments: a visible image (VisCAM) for 5-10 m resolution surface maps; and a highly versatile multispectral Comet CAMera (ComCAM) will measure 1) H2O, CO2, CO, and organics non-thermal fluorescence signatures in the 2-5 μm MWIR, and 2) 7-10 and 8-14 μm thermal (LWIR) emission. This payload would return unique data not obtainable from ground-based telescopes and complement data from Earth-orbiting observatories. Thus, the PrOVE mission would (1) acquire visible surface maps, (2) investigate chemical heterogeneity of a comet nucleus by quantifying volatile species abundance and changes with solar insolation, (3) map the spatial distribution of volatiles and determine any variations, and (4) determine the frequency and distribution of outbursts.

Clark, Pamela S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

International Space Station Lithium-Ion Battery Status

When originally launched, the International Space Station (ISS) primary Electric Power System (EPS) used Nickel-Hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries to store electrical energy. The electricity for the space station is generated by its solar arrays, which charge batteries during insolation for subsequent discharge during eclipse. The Ni-H2 batteries were designed to operate for ten years at a 35 percent depth of discharge (DOD) maximum during normal operation in a Low Earth Orbit. For service beyond that period, upgraded Li-Ion Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) were designed. These are the largest Li-Ion batteries ever utilized for a human rated spacecraft. With the oldest 12 Ni-H2 battery ORUs cycling since September 2006, the first set of six was replaced by Li-Ion batteries in December 2016; the second set of six is planned for replacement in September 2018. This paper will include an overview of the ISS Li-Ion battery system architecture, on-orbit status of the first 6 batteries, start up of the second 6 batteries, and the status of the Li-Ion cell and ORU life cycle testing.

International Space Station↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Sub-Neptune Desert and Its Dependence on Stellar Type: Controlled by Lifetime X-Ray Irradiation

Short-period sub-Neptunes with substantial volatile envelopes are among the most common type of known exoplanets. However, recent studies of the Kepler population have suggested a dearth of sub-Neptunes on highly irradiated orbits, where they are vulnerable to atmospheric photoevaporation. Physically, we expect this "photoevaporation desert" to depend on the total lifetime X-ray and extreme ultraviolet flux, the main drivers of atmospheric escape. In this work, we study the demographics of sub-Neptunes as a function of lifetime exposure to high-energy radiation and host-star mass. We find that for a given present-day insolation, planets orbiting a 0.3 solar mass star experience approximately 100 times more X-ray flux over their lifetimes versus a 1.2 solar mass star. Defining the photoevaporation desert as a region consistent with zero occurrence at 2 sigma, the onset of the desert happens for integrated X-ray fluxes greater than 1.43 times 10 (sup 22) to 8.23 times 10 (sup 20) as a function of planetary radii for 1.8 to 4 Earth radius. We also compare the location of the photoevaporation desert for different stellar types. We find much greater variability in the desert onset in the bolometric flux space compared to the integrated X-ray flux space, suggestive of photoevaporation driven by steady-state stellar X-ray emissions as the dominant control on desert location. Finally, we report tentative evidence for the sub-Neptune valley, first seen around Sun-like stars, for M&K dwarfs. The discovery of additional planets around low-mass stars from surveys such as the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission will enable detailed exploration of these trends.

Planets and Satellites: Gaseous Planets↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

Here we investigate the effects of erosion and weathering that occur on III-V cover-glass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to Mars dust storm conditions. The durability of these materials in a Martian environment is not well characterized so we perform analogous experimentation. To replicate the dust impingement, test coupons were placed in an enclosure and sandblasted with Mars dust simulant. We show the J-V response dependency on both incident angle and exposure times. We find that the simulated Martian dust storm often results in damage to the anti-reflective coating and subsequent reduced short circuit current. Reduction in the open circuit voltage is observed, likely caused by structural damage to the crystal lattice after CIC fracture. We employ data-driven modeling to determine a performance degradation rate that is consistent with zero within uncertainty. We also quantify the soiling contribution and power degradation of the photovoltaic cells on Mars through analysis of 4.95 Martian years of report-out power conditions from the Opportunity rover. We find that atmospheric dust suspended due to a weather event does not result in instantaneous settled dust on the PV cells. We calculate via autocorrelation function that the dust settling rate is approximately 21 Sols from atmospheric dust suspension. The findings presented here deliver a realistic approximation for the insolation values and subsequent PV power expected over time on the Martian surface thus informing future dust abatement systems.

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗
NASA NTRS2019

Dust Abrasion Damage on Martian Solar Arrays: Experimental Investigation and Opportunity Rover Performance Analysis

Here we investigate the effects of erosion and weathering that occur on III-V cover-glass interconnected cells (CICs) after exposure to Mars dust storm conditions. The durability of these materials in a Martian environment is not well characterized so we perform analogous experimentation. To replicate the dust impingement, test coupons were placed in an enclosure and sandblasted with Mars dust simulant. We show the J-V response dependency on both incident angle and exposure times. We find that the simulated Martian dust storm often results in damage to the anti-reflective coating and subsequent reduced short circuit current. Reduction in the open circuit voltage is observed, likely caused by structural damage to the crystal lattice after CIC fracture. We employ data-driven modeling to determine a performance degradation rate that is consistent with zero within uncertainty. We also quantify the soiling contribution and power degradation of the photovoltaic cells on Mars through analysis of 4.95 Martian years of report-out power conditions from the Opportunity rover. We find that atmospheric dust suspended due to a weather event does not result in instantaneous settled dust on the PV cells. We calculate via autocorrelation function that the dust settling rate is approximately 21 Sols from atmospheric dust suspension. The findings presented here deliver a realistic approximation for the insolation values and subsequent PV power expected over time on the Martian surface thus informing future dust abatement systems.

McMillon-Brown, Lyndsey↗
NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal, Solar Zenith Angle, and Solar Flux Variations of O+ in the Topside Ionosphere of Mars

Using observations from Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN's Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer, we characterize the seasonal, solar zenith angle (SZA), and solar flux dependent variations of the O+ peak and the O+/O+2 ratio in the topside ionosphere of Mars.We find that the O+ peak is between 220 and 300 km and forms at a roughly constant neutral atmospheric pressure level of 10(−8.7±0.4) Pa. The O+ peak altitude also decreases with increasing SZA near the terminator and varies sinusoidally with an amplitude of 26 km over a period of one Mars year in response to the changing solar insolation. The O+ peak altitude reaches a maximum near Northern Winter solstice and Mars perihelion. The O+ peak density on the dayside has an average value of (1.1 ± 0.5) × 103 cm−3, has no dependence on SZA for SZAs up to ∼90◦, and is mainly controlled by the thermospheric O/CO2 ratio as predicted by photochemical theory. Above the O+ peak, the O+/O+2 ratio in the dayside ionosphere approaches a constant value of 1.1 ± 0.6, decreases with increasing SZA, and is highly variable on timescales of days or less.We discuss why the O+ peak is different than the main (M2) peak at Mars and why it is similar to the F2 peak at Earth.

Girazian, Z.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

T B Richardson↗
NASA NTRS2019

International Space Station Lithium-Ion Battery Status

When originally launched, the International Space Station (ISS) primary Electric Power System (EPS) used Nickel-Hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries to store electrical energy. The electricity for the space station is generated by its solar arrays, which charge batteries during insolation for subsequent discharge during eclipse. The Ni-H2 batteries were designed to operate for ten years at a 35% depth of discharge (DOD) maximum during normal operation in a Low Earth Orbit. For service beyond that period, upgraded Li-Ion Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) were designed. These are the largest Li-Ion batteries ever utilized for a human rated spacecraft. The first set of six Ni-H2 batteries was replaced by Li-Ion batteries in December 2016; the second set of six was launched in September 2018 and installed in March 2019. The third set of six were launched in September 2019. Three batteries were installed in September 2019, with the remaining three to be installed in January 2020. This paper will include a brief overview of the ISS Li-Ion battery system architecture, start up of the second and third set of 6 batteries and the on-orbit status of all 18 batteries, plus the status of the Li-Ion cell life testing.

Lithium-Ion↗
NASA NTRS2020

Possible Climate Histories of Venus Type Worlds

There are two well-known scenarios for Venus’ climate evolution. In one Venus had a long-lived magma ocean phase in its first 100Myr with a steam and CO2 dominated atmosphere. The faint young sun with its high XUV flux would cause photodissociation of the steam atmosphere and hydrodynamic escape would cause most of the hydrogen to escape & left-over oxygen would be absorbed by the magma ocean. Hence Venus would have started out hot and dry and the high D/H ratio measured by Pioneer Venus would be from this period of water loss. The other scenario is that Venus’ magma ocean lifetime would have been roughly the same length of time as Earth’s (~1Myr) and water would have condensed on its surface in its early history and had a short period of habitability before increasing solar insolation through time drove it into a runaway greenhouse. However, results from 2016 showed that if Venus remains in the slowly rotating climate dynamics regime (as seen in exoplanet related climate studies) its cloud albedo feedback would have kept it temperate for possibly billions of years. The only way to confirm which one of these scenarios occurred for Venus is to visit it and make the necessary measurements of noble and volatile gases. But exoplanet observations of young exo-Venus type worlds around young F,G,K dwarf stars may constrain which scenario is more probable for a population of such planets. We present a vision of Venus’ climate history that places it and its exoVenus cousins in an ‘Optimistic Venus Zone’ for ~3 billion years within the conventionally named ‘Venus Zone’ and hence encourage the exoplanet communit as possible habitable environments.

Way, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Editorial: North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present

The vast area of the North Pacific, spanning ~55° longitude, represents a challenge for documenting and understanding the geologic history of ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial environmental change. This special issue highlights site-specific analyses to address various questions and provides clues that arise in response to continued North Pacific warming today in a rapidly changing climate (Figure 1). The emergence of new methods and novel application of existing methods serve to enhance our fundamental understanding of natural modes of climate variability driven by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, including the role of external (e.g., insolation) vs. internal forcing [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Included in this volume are geographically diverse studies that present new and traditional methods for the interpretation of climate records drawn from pollen, macrofossils, tree rings, diatoms, grain size, and glacial studies. Many provide new geographic comparisons, such as Kamchatka and Hawaii, or emerge from novel geologic archives and environments, such as the marine shelf, a thermokarst lake, and a fossil forest.

Jones, Miriam C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Seasonal Variations of Arctic Low-Level Clouds and its Linkage to Sea Ice Seasonal Variations

Using CALIPSO-CloudSat-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) (C3M) dataset, this study documents the seasonal variation of sea ice, cloud, and related atmospheric properties in the Arctic region (70°N–82°N) during the period 2007-2010. The surface type stratification used reveals the surface type influence on the Arctic cloud liquid water path (LWP)seasonality. Four surface types are defined: i) Permanent Ocean, ii) Land, iii) Permanent Ice, and iv) Transient Sea Ice. The Transient Ice regions are further divided into sub-regions according to the onset dates of melt/freeze season. Results show that the sea ice cover has no significant direct influence on the seasonal variation of the water vapor in the lower troposphere and the low-level cloud LWP. Rather, the role played by sea ice appear indirect by modifying the surface temperature response to increased solar insolation and influencing lower tropospheric stability (LTS). The results suggest that the combined increase in atmospheric water vapor due to warming air temperatures and the weakening of the inversion strength that governs the seasonal structure of cloud LWP. Over Transient Ice regions, the results suggest that the May peak in LWP coincides with a decrease in LTS and that is insensitive to melt and freeze onset. Variations in melt and freeze onset set are found to influence probably distribution of cloud LWP where regions of earlier melt and later freeze onset how a higher likelihood of larger values.

Yueyue Yu↗