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At least 577 records · Page 32

Heat stress on agricultural workers exacerbates crop impacts of climate change

Abstract The direct impacts of climate change on crop yields and human health are individually well-studied, but the interaction between the two have received little attention. Here we analyze the consequences of global warming for agricultural workers and the crops they cultivate using a global economic model (GTAP) with explicit treatment of the physiological impacts of heat stress on humans’ ability to work. Based on two metrics of heat stress and two labor functions, combined with a meta-analysis of crop yields, we provide an analysis of climate, impacts both on agricultural labor force, as well as on staple crop yields, thereby accounting for the interacting effect of climate change on both land and labor. Here we analyze the two sets of impacts on staple crops, while also expanding the labor impacts to highlight the potential importance on non-staple crops. We find, worldwide, labor and yield impacts within staple grains are equally important at +3 ∘ C warming, relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Furthermore, the widely overlooked labor impacts are dominant in two of the most vulnerable regions: sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. In those regions, heat stress with 3 ∘ C global warming could reduce labor capacity in agriculture by 30%–50%, increasing food prices and requiring much higher levels of employment in the farm sector. The global welfare loss at this level of warming could reach $136 billion, with crop prices rising by 5%, relative to baseline.

de Lima, Cicero Z. (ORCID:0000000297005435)↗

The missing correlation between the potential rate impacts of rooftop solar and the timing of state net metering policy revisions

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) output in most states is credited at the retail electricity rate, a policy commonly known as net metering. Twelve states have replaced net metering with alternative rate structures that reduce PV adopter bill savings. Proponents of these revisions argue that net metering increases the electricity rates of customers without PV. Here, we analyze the degree to which the timelines of net metering revisions have correlated with potential electricity rate impacts. We estimate that potential rate impacts at the end of 2023 were less than 1% of typical customer bills in 37 of 44 states that have offered net metering. There are no statistically significant differences in average or median estimated rate impacts between states that have and have not revised net metering. Nine of the states that had revised net metering did so when estimated impacts were less than 1% of typical customer bills. Many states have retained net metering into higher PV deployment levels with increased risk of potential rate impacts. Only two states—California and Hawaii—retained net metering beyond estimated rate impacts of 5%, and both have revised net metering. These findings do not suggest a clear, consistent link between net metering revision timelines and potential rate impacts. The timing and nature of net metering revisions are ultimately policy decisions based on state-level priorities and considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact Mapping for Geospatial Reasoning and Decision Making

Objective The reported study evaluated a novel approach to aiding geospatial reasoning and decision making. Background Impact mapping aims to alleviate the cognitive demands of geospatial tasks in part by externalizing data in the form of an integrated decision surface. This is achieved by aggregating data across multiple sources of information and visualizing their combined utility rather than objective measurements or individual utility. Previous research has shown that geospatial decisions improve when aided in this manner, but it remains unknown if dynamic decision making, often plagued by fatigue and anchoring bias, would benefit similarly. Method The experiment implemented a systematic manipulation of the presence of a composite impact map and the number of attributes present in a two-stage disaster relief, resource allocation task to investigate when and how impact mapping is beneficial or deleterious to decision makers. Results The presence of the composite impact map increased the utility of selected sites, increased re-planning decisions, reduced information display views, and reduced workload. Generally, the effect of the composite impact map was greater when participants were asked to evaluate more attributes. Conclusion Composite impact maps appear to improve repeated geospatial reasoning and minimize anchoring bias because they alleviate the cognitive demands otherwise necessary to interpret and maintain information from multiple attributes. Application Data visualization techniques, such as impact mapping, can improve repeated geospatial decision making in environments that include high cognitive demand.

Illingworth, David A.↗

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

Aerosol optical depth↗

Low-velocity repeated impact behaviors of Polymer Fiber Reinforced Plastics (PFRPs)

Modern fiber-reinforced composites have become ubiquitous across multiple industries due to their excellent weight-to-strength ratio. Typically glass or carbon fibers are widely used. While Glass or Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Plastics (GFPRs or CFPRs) have good stiffness, strength, and fatigue life, they are expensive and difficult to recycle. Researchers are exploring Polymer Fiber-Reinforced Plastics (PFRPs) as an alternative solution. PFRPs utilize polymer fibers and a polymer matrix. A wide range of materials options is available, including low-cost thermoplastics such as polyethylene or polypropylene. These thermoplastics are easy to handle and recyclable without special methods. Manufacturing parts using thermoplastics are well-established as well. However, their mechanical performances have not been extensively studied compared to GFRPs or CFRPs. This study examines the low-velocity impact resistance of PFRPs made of different thermoplastics. The low-velocity impacts are applied through a drop-weight tower. The experiment is divided into two cases: a single perforation impact and low-energy repeated impacts. Energy absorption and the number of impacts to failure are measured. The results are compared to traditional CFRPs which have a thermoset matrix. The PFRPs demonstrate energy absorption capabilities comparable to or greater than those of CFRPs with respect to specimen thickness and density. Additionally, the PFRPs show significantly higher impacts-to-failure than the CFRPs in low-energy repeated impact tests. This is particularly noteworthy considering that the PFRPs are much simpler and more economical to manufacture than CFRPs. To further

Ko, Seunghyun↗

Literature Review for Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification Use Cases - Building Controls and Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD)

This report summarizes a comprehensive literature review for the selected sensor suites used in building controls and fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), which is a Q2 deliverable of the Sensor Impact Evaluation and Verification project. The project’s overarching goal is to develop a framework for investigating the impact of sensor deployment and configuration for building energy optimization, fault detection and diagnosis (FDD), occupants’ thermal comfort, and potential grid efficiency. While the first phase of the literature review performed in Q1 reviewed the current methods of various sensor selection and placements and their impact, this report focuses on high impactful potential use cases for the selected sensor suites in building control and FDD. The use cases identified in this literature review will be further investigated and be included in the final sensor impact evaluation framework. For the review, the multi-laboratory team reviewed 241 research papers, technical reports, and books to identify existing technologies, the potential impact on energy savings and thermal comfort, and future research opportunities for the selected use cases in building controls and FDD. Along with the literature review, the team conducted a series of interviews with experts in sensors and controls area to identify the state-of-art sensor technologies, and the most impactful use cases in controls and FDD areas. The interview results will also be incorporated with the findings from the literature review in the next quarter, and the final use cases to be evaluated will be selected.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Impact Testing and Analysis of Modified Metal Slugs

This report summarizes initial results from a series of gun experiments which were conducted at the DICE facility. The target of these experiments was a modified metal slug composed of a tantalum/tungsten alloy (Ta-10W). The general geometry of the slug was a right circular cylinder with a through-hole cut normal to the cylinder's axis. In all experiments, hardened steel impactors were used, the desired impact velocity was 200 m/s, the slug was preheated to a target temperature of 175° C, photon doppler velocimetry (PDV) was used to measure the projectile velocity before and after impact, and the impact event was recorded with high-speed video. In two of the impacts the slug was oriented perpendicular to the projectile, while in the remaining two it was tilted 8° from normal. Initial high-speed speed video results showed slug failure in the tilted impact case, while the slug survived normal impacts. Recovery fixtures were used to preserve impacted slugs for future postmortem analysis. Discussions are included regarding improvements to potential future experiments involving these slugs.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Reliability, Resilience, and Location on Electric Vehicle Adoption

While the majority of electric vehicle (EV) charging events in the United States occur at home, issues with public charging stations are consistently found to be a top reason that potential EV buyers do not purchase an EV, demonstrating that both EVSE reliability and availability impacts EV adoption. This report explores multiple parameters that impact EVSE reliability and deployment, which in turn impact EV sales. These include extreme weather, codes and standards, region (urban vs. rural), and grid network type. Grid reliability was not found to impact EV adoption. The relationships between EV station reliability, station resilience, grid resilience, and EV adoption are largely outside the scope of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) and other vehicle adoption models, so the methodology of this report is varied. Section 2 sets the baseline for infrastructure reliability, user satisfaction, and maintenance practices. Section 3 explores the ways that electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) reliability impacts the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption. Section 4 shows how geographical categories such as urban, rural, large grid, off-grid, or microgrid can be helpful in EVSE deployment strategies, as well as how the relationship between EVSE and EV adoption differs among these categories. Section 5 investigates the impacts of grid reliability and infrastructure resilience on EV adoption. Finally, Section 6 reverses the perspective to examine the impact that EVs and EVSE have on grid resilience and reliability. As recent funding initiatives result in an expansion of public chargers across the United States, as well as an increase in the uptime of existing chargers, EV adoption will likely grow.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Abbreviated Report)

Impacts-relevant Earth system data refers to observational and ESM data that are downscaled, debiased, validated, and provisioned for use by decision-makers. Impacts-relevant Earth system data is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning across a variety of regions and sectors. A vast number of these data products have emerged in recent years, which has led to confusion among stakeholders and scientists as to the best product to use. With no standard evaluation protocol available for these products, the decision on which product to use was sometimes made because it was pragmatic rather than the best product to use. This project sought to develop foundational capabilities around impacts-relevant data products that would support more informed selection and application of these products. This work has been immensely successful, driving several academic publications and supported the development of a community of practice around impacts-relevant data products. Over the project’s three years we have addressed six tasks: First, the development of standard evaluation metrics for impacts-relevant climate data; second, the development of a novel suite of atmospheric river metrics; third, the development of novel metrics for precipitation feature analysis; fourth, the development of novel metrics for assessing co-variances between temperature and precipitation; fifth, the development of a dashboard for interactive examination of impacts-relevant climate data; and sixth, the establishment of a community of practice around impacts-relevant climate data that will continue beyond the conclusion of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydropower Economies of Karakoram and Himalayan River Basins

Water stored in the form of snow and glaciers in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region regulates the water supply, and resultant water-based economies, that support the livelihoods of millions of people. Trends in the seasonal and long-term melting of snow and glaciers, governed by initial ice reserves, meteorological factors and geographic features, vary across sub-basins in the HMA region. We examined the economic impacts of climate-led changes in river flow in two drainage basins, one each from the Karakoram and Central Himalaya region. We used an integrated assessment framework to estimate the changes in economic value of the hydropower generation from hydropower plants on rivers fed by snow and glacier melt in the two sub-basins. The framework, developed under a NASA High Mountain Asia project, coupled biophysical models (a suite of climate models, snow/glacier-hydrology, and hydropower model) with economic analysis. We compared the differences in estimated river flow over historic and future time using the water balance model in sixteen scenarios (eight climate models and two emissions scenarios) for rivers upstream of hydropower plants in each sub-basin. Using the hydropower model we developed, we estimated the changes in hydropower generation at the Naltar IV hydropower plant, with an 18 MW capacity, located in Hunza, Karakoram, and the Trishuli hydropower plant, with a 19.6 MW capacity, in Trishuli, Central Himalaya. When compared to their baselines, the estimated impact of climate change and temporal variability were higher for the Naltar plant than for the Trishuli plant. Our sensitivity analysis shows that hydropower plants with water storage facilities help reduce the impact of changes, but the estimated impacts are higher for the higher capacity plants. This study provides an example of the differential impacts of climate change on hydropower plants located in rivers fed by varying amounts of snow and glacier melt at different decades in this century. This type of integrated assessment of climate change impact will support the scientific understanding of hydrologic flow and its impacts on a hydropower economy under various climate scenarios, as well as generate information about water resource management in a changing climate.

climate change↗

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effects of Realistic Impact-processed Asteroid Topology on Atmospheric Airbursts

When small asteroids (∼10–200 m) enter Earth’s atmosphere they can break up before hitting the ground, releasing a considerable amount of energy in what is known as an atmospheric airburst. To date, numerous studies have examined how an asteroid’s strength, size, shape, and entry characteristics affect the breakup process; but few have assessed the effects of heterogenous internal topologies. We present a two-step high-fidelity simulation approach, which we use to model the atmospheric breakup of asteroids with realistic impact-processed internal topologies and their associated ground effects. In the first step, we model the asteroid as it is impacted to generate an “impact-processed” topology. We then map the resulting fractures (i.e., damage field) from that simulation to the initial state of an atmospheric breakup simulation. For both phases, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code Spheral++. As a demonstrative example, we apply our new simulation pipeline to a Tunguska-scale impactor (50 m diameter, 20 km s −1 entry velocity, and 45° angle) in a case study comparing impact-processed and fully intact asteroids in both planar 2D and full 3D. For sufficiently strong asteroids, we find that impact processing generally causes the asteroid to break up at higher altitudes. We also observe that impact-processed asteroids break up into smaller fragments than objects with equivalent properties that have not been impact-processed.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Simulated meteorological impacts of offshore wind turbines and sensitivity to the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy

Offshore wind energy projects are currently in development off the east coast of the United States and may influence the local meteorology of the region. Wind power production and other commercial uses in this area are related to atmospheric conditions, and so it is important to understand how future wind plants may change the local meteorology. In the absence of measurements of potential wind plant impacts on meteorology, simulations offer the next-best possible insight into wake effects on boundary layer height, temperature, fluxes, and wind speeds. However, simulation tools that capture these effects offer multiple options for representing the amount of turbine-added turbulence that may impact assessments of micrometeorological effects. To explore this sensitivity, we compare 1 year of simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with and without wind plants incorporated, focusing on the lease area south of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The simulations with wind plants are repeated to include both the maximum and minimum amounts of added turbulence to provide bounds on the potential impacts. We assess changes in wind speeds, 2 m temperature, surface heat flux, turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), and boundary layer height during different stability classifications and ambient wind speeds over the entire year and compare results for the degree of added turbulence in the wind plant simulations. Because the wake behavior may be a function of boundary layer stability, in this paper, we also present a machine learning algorithm to quantify the area and distance of the wake generated by the wind plant. This analysis enables us to identify the relationship between wake extent and boundary layer height. We find that hub-height wind speed is reduced within and downwind of the wind plant, with the strongest impacts occurring during stable conditions and faster wind speeds in region 3 of the turbine power curve, although impacts lessen as wind speeds increase past 15 m s−1. In contrast, wind speeds near the surface decrease when no turbine-added turbulence is included but can increase for stably stratified conditions when 100 % of possible TKE is included in the simulations. TKE increases at hub height in the simulations with added TKE for all stability classes, suggesting that atmospheric stability does not immediately modify the TKE generated by turbines. Negligible changes in hub-height TKE manifest in the simulations without the added TKE. At the surface, TKE increases in the simulations with maximum added turbulence only for unstable conditions. In the no-added-turbulence simulations, surface TKE decreases slightly in neutral and unstable simulations. Differences in 2 m temperatures and surface heat fluxes are small but vary considerably with atmospheric stability and the amount of added TKE. Boundary layer heights increase within the wind plant when turbine-added turbulence is included and decrease slightly downwind during stable conditions. In contrast, with no added turbulence, the boundary layer height is in general reduced in stable conditions with wind speeds less than 15 m s −1 and slightly increased in neutral conditions. Finally, shallower upwind boundary layer heights tend to correlate with larger wake areas and distances, though other factors likely also play a role in determining the extent of the wind plant wake. These simulation-based results provide a bound for micrometeorological impacts of wind plant wakes: simulations that couple the atmosphere to the ocean may reduce these impacts, and we await observational verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗

Impact resistance of unidirectional fiber composites.

Composite micromechanics and macromechanics and the miniature Izod impact test are used to investigate the impact resistance of unidirectional composites. Several composite systems are examined both theoretically and experimentally. The composites are classified theoretically with respect to their impact resistance for longitudinal, transverse, and shear modes. Experimental results are reported only for Izod impact with the fibers either parallel or transverse to the cantilever longitudinal axis. Impact resistance design criteria which evolved during this investigation are used to design hybrid composites with improved impact resistance. The results show that in situ fiber and matrix elongation to fracture, matrix modulus, fabrication process, fiber and void volume ratios, and microresidual stresses are variables which affect the impact resistance.

Chamis, C. C.↗

Impact resistance of fiber composite blades used in aircraft turbine engines

Resistance of advanced fiber reinforced epoxy matrix composite materials to ballistic impact was investigated as a function of impacting projectile characteristics, and composite material properties. Ballistic impact damage due to normal impacts, was classified as transverse (stress wave delamination and splitting), penetrative, or structural (gross failure). Steel projectiles were found to be gelatin ice projectiles in causing penetrative damage leading to reduced tensile strength. Gelatin and ice projectiles caused either transverse or structural damage, depending upon projectile mass and velocity. Improved composite transverse tensile strength, use of dispersed ply lay-ups, and inclusion of PRD-49-1 or S-glass fibers correlated with improved resistance of composite materials to transverse damage. In non-normal impacts against simulated blade shapes, the normal velocity component of the impact was used to correlate damage results with normal impact results. Stiffening the leading edge of simulated blade specimens led to reduced ballistic damage, while addition of a metallic leading edge provided nearly complete protection against 0.64 cm diameter steel, and 1.27 cm diameter ice and gelatin projectiles, and partial protection against 2.54 cm diameter projectiles of ice and gelatin.

Friedrich, L. A.↗

Experimental transient and permanent deformation studies of steel-sphere-impacted or impulsively-loaded aluminum beams with clamped ends

The sheet explosive loading technique (SELT) was employed to obtain elastic-plastic, large-deflection transient and/or permanent strain data on simple well-defined structural specimens and materials: initially-flat 6061-T651 aluminum beams with both ends ideally clamped via integral construction. The SELT loading technique was chosen since it is both convenient and provides forcing function information of small uncertainty. These data will be useful for evaluating pertinent structural response prediction methods. A second objective was to obtain high-quality transient-strain data for a well-defined structural/material model subjected to impact by a rigid body of known mass, impact velocity, and geometry; large-deflection, elastic-plastic transient response conditions are of primary interest. The beam with both ends clamped and a steel sphere as the impacting body were chosen. The steel sphere was launched vertically by explosive propulsion to achieve various desired impact velocities. The sphere/beam impact tests resulted in producing a wide range of structural responses and permanent deformations, including rupture of the beam from excessive structural response in two cases. The transient and permanent strain data as well as the permanent deflection data obtained are of high quality and should be useful for checking and evaluating methods for predicting the responses of simple 2-d structures to fragment (sphere) impact. Transient strain data very close to the point of impact were not obtained over as long a time as desirable because the gage(s) in that region became detached during the transient response.

Witmer, E. A.↗

Improved impact-resistant boron-aluminum composites for use as turbine engine fan blades

Efforts to improve the impact resistance of B/Al are reviewed and analyzed. Thin sheet Charpy and Izod impact tests and standard full size Charpy impact tests were conducted on unidirectional and angleply composites containing 4, 5.6 and 8 mil boron in 1100, 2024, 5052 and 6061 Al matrices. Impact failure modes of B/Al are proposed in an attempt to describe the mechanisms involved and to provide insight for maximizing impact resistance. The impact strength of B/Al was significantly increased by proper selection of materials and processing. The use of more ductile matrices (1100 Al) and larger diameter (8 mil) boron fibers gave the highest impact strengths by allowing matrix shear deformation and multiple fiber breakage.

Mcdanels, D. L.↗