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Progress in development of a Navier-Stokes solver for evaluation of iced airfoil performance

A method is being developed for evaluation of the flow field behavior about an airfoil with significant ice accretion on the leading edge. The computer code, being evaluated for this purpose, solves the Navier-Stokes equations in a body-fitted curvilinear coordinate system. This requires the use of a grid generation code to transform the x-y coordinates of the physical space into xi-eta coordinates of the computational space. Evaluation of the suitability of these two codes for predicting iced airfoil performance is presently being carried out in anticipation of use in an overall icing analysis effort. Results of this evaluation to date indicate good correlation with known information on clean airfoils. Preliminary results for rime and glaze, iced airfoil shapes are also presented.

Potapczuk, M. G.↗

[Equipment Inventory Report of Inventions and Subcontracts]

This was a joint award to the PI, then of Texas A&M University, and Gerald Heymsfield of NASA GSFC, with co-I's Robbie Hood and Richard Blakeslee of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). Although the PI moved to the University of Utah during year-2 of this grant, it continued to be administered through Texas A&M for the convenience of the Ph.D. student Daniel Cecil until after he defended his dissertation in late 2000. Cecil has assembled a subset of this database for 261 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) passes over 45 hurricanes or tropical cyclones. It consists of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) ice scattering signatures and TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) reflectivity profiles and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) flash locations for the rain features associated with all tropical cyclones observed by TRMM from Dec. 1997 through Dec. 1998. Each rain feature has been subjectively cataloged as belonging to a hurricane eyewall, inner rainband, outer rainband, or the inner or outer regions of a developing or non-developing tropical cyclone. This database quantifies the relative abundance of lightning in outer rainbands compared to eyewalls and inner rainbands. The TRMM data set permits studies that can seek more specific physical relationships than Cecil and Zipser were able to find when they related some SSM/I measures of ice scattering to hurricane intensity change.

Zipser, Edward J.↗

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

Abstract We use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Beadling, R. L.↗

Physics-Based SNOWPACK Model Improves Representation of Near-Surface Antarctic Snow and Firn Density

Estimates of snow and firn density are required for satellite-altimetry-based retrievals of ice sheet mass balance that rely on volume-to-mass conversions. Therefore, biases and errors in presently used density models confound assessments of ice sheet mass balance and by extension ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. Despite this importance, most contemporary firn densification models rely on simplified semi-empirical methods, which are partially reflected by significant modeled density errors when compared to observations. In this study, we present a new drifting-snow compaction scheme that we have implemented into SNOWPACK, a physics-based land surface snow model. We show that our new scheme improves existing versions of SNOWPACK by increasing simulated near-surface (defined as the top 10 m) density to be more in line with observations (near-surface bias reduction from −44.9 to −5.4 kg m−3). Furthermore, we demonstrate high-quality simulation of near-surface Antarctic snow and firn density at 122 observed density profiles across the Antarctic ice sheet, as indicated by reduced model biases throughout most of the near-surface firn column when compared to two semi-empirical firn densification models (SNOWPACK mean bias=−9.7 kg m−3, IMAU-FDM mean bias=−32.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM mean bias=15.5 kg m−3). Notably, our analysis is restricted to the near surface where firn density is most variable due to accumulation and compaction variability driven by synoptic weather and seasonal climate variability. Additionally, the GSFC-FDM exhibits lower mean density bias from 7–10 m (SNOWPACK bias=−22.5 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=10.6 kg m−3) and throughout the entire near surface at high-accumulation sites (SNOWPACK bias=−31.4 kg m−3, GSFC-FDM bias=−4.7 kg m−3). However, we found that the performance of SNOWPACK did not degrade when applied to sites that were not included in the calibration of semi-empirical models. This suggests that SNOWPACK may possibly better represent firn properties in locations without extensive observations and under future climate scenarios, when firn properties are expected to diverge from their present state.

Eric Keenan↗

A 1D Model for Nucleation of Ice From Aerosol Particles: An Application to a Mixed-Phase Arctic Stratus Cloud Layer

Mixed-phase clouds (MPCs) have been identified as significant contributors to uncertainties in climate projections, attributable to model representation of processes controlling the formation and loss of supercooled water droplets and ice particles from the atmosphere. Arctic MPCs are commonly widespread and long-lived, with sustained ice crystal formation processes that challenge current understanding. This study examines the ice-nucleating particle (INP) reservoir dynamics governing immersion-mode heterogeneous freezing in an observed case of Arctic MPCs using a simplified 1D aerosol-cloud model. The model setup includes prescribed dynamical forcings and thermodynamic profiles, and represents INPs as multicomponent and polydisperse particle size distributions. Diagnostic and prognostic approaches to immersion freezing parameterization are compared, including time-independent (singular) number- and surface area-based descriptions and a time-dependent description following classical nucleation theory (CNT). The choice of freezing parameterization defines the size of the INP reservoir. The CNT-based description yields an orders of magnitude larger INP reservoir than the singular parameterizations, which is the dominant factor for sustained ice crystal formation. The efficiency of the freezing process and cloud cooling are of secondary importance. A diagnostic treatment neglecting INP loss is only accurate when the INP reservoir size is large and INP depletion weak. Since a larger INP reservoir sustains ice crystal formation substantially longer, and ice water path scales with ice crystal concentrations for the conditions considered, resolving the source of differences in INP reservoir dynamics due to model implementation is a high priority for advancing climate model physics.

aerosol↗

Phytoplankton in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Distributions, Dynamics and Environmental Forcing

Time-series of remotely sensed distributions of phytoplankton, sea ice, surface temperature, albedo, and clouds were examined to evaluate the impact of the variability of environmental conditions and physical forcing on the phytoplankton distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Large-scale distributions of these parameters were studied for the first time using weekly and monthly composites from April 1998 through September 2002. The basic data set used in this study are phytoplankton pigment concentration derived from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), ice concentration obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and surface temperature, cloud cover, and albedo derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Seasonal variations of the sea ice cover was observed to be the dominant environmental factor as the ice edge blooms followed the retreating marginal ice zones northward. Blooms were most prominent in the southwestern Chukchi Sea, and were especially persistent immediately north of the Bering Strait in nutrient- rich Anadyr water and in some fronts. Chlorophyll concentrations are shown to increase from a nominal value during onset of melt in April to a maximum value in mid-spring or summer depending on location. Large interannual variability of ice cover and phytoplankton distributions was observed with the year 1998 being uniquely associated with an early season occurrence of a massive bloom. This is postulated to be caused in part by a rapid response of phytoplankton to an early retreat of the sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea region. Correlation analyses showed relatively high negative correlation between chlorophyll and ice concentration with the correlation being highest in May, the correlation coefficient being -0.45. 1998 was also the warmest among the five years globally and the sea ice cover was least extensive in the Beaufort-Khukchi Sea region, partly because of the 1997-98 El Nino. Strong correlations were noted between ice extent and surface temperature, the correlation coefficient being highest at - 0.79 in April, during the onset of the bloom period

Wang, Jian↗

Neptune Polar Orbiter with Probes

The giant planets of the outer solar system divide into two distinct classes: the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, which consist mainly of hydrogen and helium; and the ice giants Uranus and Neptune, which are believed to contain significant amounts of the heavier elements oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon and sulfur. Detailed comparisons of the internal structures and compositions of the gas giants with those of the ice giants will yield valuable insights into the processes that formed the solar system and, perhaps, other planetary systems. By 2012, Galileo, Cassini and possibly a Jupiter Orbiter mission with microwave radiometers, Juno, in the New Frontiers program, will have yielded significant information on the chemical and physical properties of Jupiter and Saturn. A Neptune Orbiter with Probes (NOP) mission would deliver the corresponding key data for an ice giant planet. Such a mission would ideally study the deep Neptune atmosphere to pressures approaching and possibly exceeding 1000 bars, as well as the rings, Triton, Nereid, and Neptune s other icy satellites. A potential source of power would be nuclear electric propulsion (NEP). Such an ambitious mission requires that a number of technical issues be investigated, however, including: (1) atmospheric entry probe thermal protection system (TPS) design, (2) probe structural design including seals, windows, penetrations and pressure vessel, (3) digital, RF subsystem, and overall communication link design for long term operation in the very extreme environment of Neptune's deep atmosphere, (4) trajectory design allowing probe release on a trajectory to impact Neptune while allowing the spacecraft to achieve a polar orbit of Neptune, (5) and finally the suite of science instruments enabled by the probe technology to explore the depths of the Neptune atmosphere. Another driving factor in the design of the Orbiter and Probes is the necessity to maintain a fully operational flight system during the lengthy transit time from launch through Neptune encounter, and throughout the mission. Following our response to the recent NASA Research Announcement (NRA) for Space Science Vision Missions for mission studies by NASA for implementation in the 2013 or later time frame, our team has been selected to explore the feasibility of such a Neptune mission.

Bienstock, Bernard↗

Analysis of Properties of the North Polar Layered Deposits: THEMIS Data in Context of MGS Data

One of the many questions of Martian exploration is to uncover the history of Mars, through analysis of the polar layered deposits (PLD). Martian polar ice caps hold most of the exposed water on the surface on Mars and yet their history and physical processed involved in their formation are unclear. We will attempt to contribute to our knowledge of the composition and stratigraphy of the polar deposits. In this work we present the latest imaging data acquired by the Mars Odyssey THermal EMission Imaging System (THEMIS) and place it into context of the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data. THEMIS provides capabilities for imaging in both thermal IR and visible color wavelengths. These observations are affected by atmospheric scattering and topography. The Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instruments on board of the MGS spacecraft can provide context information for THEMIS data. Of particular interest are Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images, which provide high resolution data. We are primarily interested in the seasonal evolution of ice cap temperatures during the first northern summer of THEMIS observations. Morphology, stratigraphy and composition of the layered deposits can be addressed by THEMIS VIS color images, along with MOC high resolution data and MOLA Digital Elevation Models (DEM). This work is intentionally descriptive. Based on the knowledge obtained by the orbiting spacecraft and described here, we will attempt to expose major directions for modeling and further understanding of of the physical processes involved in the formation of the polar layered terrain 2 Available data 2.1 THEMIS IR The THEMIS IR camera has 10 bands from 6 to 15 m. Due to to signal-to-noise restrictions the most useful band for polar observations is band 9 (12.57 m ). Band 10 (14.88 m ) data can be used for atmospheric calibration. An example of seasonal evolution observed by the THEMIS IR subsystem is shown in Figure 1. We have projected all IR images, covering a small area near 86N and 90E into a polar stereographic projection and then sampled time dimension in order to look at temperature evolution over the course of the summer. We are plotting averaged temperature data over two 1km2 regions of interest: layered material inside the trough and the surface of the residual ice cap. High resolution THEMIS IR data allows us to distinguish properties of bulk of layered terrain and ice. We were not able yet to distinguish properties of individual layers.

A B Ivanov↗

Comment on “Review of experimental studies of secondary ice production” by Korolev and Leisner (2020)

Abstract. This is a comment on the review by Korolev and Leisner (2020, hereafter KL2020). The only two laboratory/field studies ever to measure the breakup in ice–ice collisions for in-cloud conditions were negatively criticised by KL2020, as were our subsequent theoretical and modelling studies informed by both studies. First, hypothetically, even without any further laboratory experiments, such theoretical and modelling studies would continue to be possible, based on classical mechanics and statistical physics. They are not sensitive to the accuracy of lab data for typical situations, partly because the nonlinear explosive growth of ice concentrations continues until some maximum concentration is reached. To a degree, the same final concentration is expected regardless of the fragment number per collision. Second, there is no evidence that both lab/field observational studies characterising fragmentation in ice–ice collisions are either mutually conflicting or erroneous such that they cannot be used to represent this breakup in numerical models, contrary to the review. The fact that the ice spheres of one experiment were hail sized (2 cm) is not a problem if a universal theoretical formulation, such as ours, with fundamental dependencies, is informed by it. Although both lab/field studies involved head-on collisions, rotational kinetic energy for all collisions generally is only a small fraction of the initial collision kinetic energy (CKE) anyway. Although both lab/field experiments involved fixed targets, that is not a problem since the fixing of the target is represented via CKE in any energy-based formulation such as ours. Finally, scaling analysis suggests that the breakup of ice during sublimation can make a significant contribution to ice enhancement in clouds, again contrary to the impression given by the review.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytical and physical modeling program for the NASA Lewis Research Center's Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT)

An effort is currently underway at the NASA Lewis Research Center to rehabilitate and extend the capabilities of the Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT). This extended capability will include a maximum test section Mach number of about 0.9 at an altitude of 55,000 ft and a -20 F stagnation temperature (octagonal test section, 20 ft across the flats). In addition, the AWT will include an icing and acoustic research capability. In order to insure a technically sound design, an AWT modeling program (both analytical and physical) was initiated to provide essential input to the AWT final design process. This paper describes the modeling program, including the rationale and criteria used in program definition, and presents some early program results.

Abbott, J. M.↗

Analytical and physical modeling program for the NASA Lewis Research Center's Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT)

An effort is currently underway at the NASA Lewis Research Center to rehabilitate and extend the capabilities of the Altitude Wind Tunnel (AWT). This extended capability will include a maximum test section Mach number of about 0.9 at an altitude of 55,000 ft and a -20 F stagnation temperature (octagonal test section, 20 ft across the flats). In addition, the AWT will include an icing and acoustic research capability. In order to insure a technically sound design, an AWT modeling program (both analytical and physical) was initiated to provide essential input to the AWT final design process. This paper describes the modeling program, including the rationale and criteria used in program definition, and presents some early program results.

Abbott, J. M.↗

From Interstellar PAHs and Ices to the Origin of Life

Tremendous strides have been made in our understanding of interstellar material over the past twenty years thanks to significant, parallel developments in observational astronomy and laboratory astrophysics. Twenty years ago the composition of interstellar dust was largely guessed at, the concept of ices in dense molecular clouds ignored, and the notion of large, abundant, gas phase, carbon rich molecules widespread throughout the interstellar medium (ISM) considered impossible. Today the composition of dust in the diffuse ISM is reasonably well constrained to micron-sized cold refractory materials comprised of amorphous and crystalline silicates mixed with an amorphous carbonaceous material containing aromatic structural units and short, branched aliphatic chains. In dense molecular clouds, the birthplace of stars and planets, these cold dust particles are coated with mixed molecular ices whose composition is very well constrained. Lastly, the signature of carbon-rich polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), shockingly large molecules by earlier interstellar chemistry standards, is widespread throughout the Universe. The first part of this lecture will describe how infrared studies of interstellar space, combined with laboratory simulations, have revealed the composition of interstellar ices (the building blocks of comets) and the high abundance and nature of interstellar PAHs. The laboratory database has now enabled us to gain insight into the identities, concentrations, and physical state of many interstellar materials. Within a dense molecular cloud, and especially in the solar nebula during the star and planet formation stage, the materials frozen into interstellar/precometary ices are photoprocessed by ultraviolet light, producing more complex molecules. The remainder of the presentation will focus on the photochemical evolution of these materials and the possible role of these compounds on the early Earth. As these materials are thought to be the building blocks of comets and related to the carbonaceous components of micrometeorites, they are likely to have been important sources of complex organic materials on the early Earth and their composition may be related to the origin of life.

Allamandola, Louis J.↗

FROSch Preconditioners for Land Ice Simulations of Greenland and Antarctica

Numerical simulations of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets involve the solution of large-scale highly nonlinear systems of equations on complex shallow geometries. This work is concerned with the construction of Schwarz preconditioners for the solution of the associated tangent problems, which are challenging for solvers mainly because of the strong anisotropy of the meshes and wildly changing boundary conditions that can lead to poorly constrained problems on large portions of the domain. Here, two-level GDSW (Generalized Dryja–Smith–Widlund) type Schwarz preconditioners are applied to different land ice problems, i.e., a velocity problem, a temperature problem, as well as the coupling of the former two problems. We employ the MPI-parallel implementation of multi-level Schwarz preconditioners provided by the package FROSch (Fast and Robust Schwarz)from the Trilinos library. The strength of the proposed preconditioner is that it yields out-of-the-box scalable and robust preconditioners for the single physics problems. To our knowledge, this is the first time two-level Schwarz preconditioners are applied to the ice sheet problem and a scalable preconditioner has been used for the coupled problem. The pre-conditioner for the coupled problem differs from previous monolithic GDSW preconditioners in the sense that decoupled extension operators are used to compute the values in the interior of the sub-domains. Several approaches for improving the performance, such as reuse strategies and shared memory OpenMP parallelization, are explored as well. In our numerical study we target both uniform meshes of varying resolution for the Antarctic ice sheet as well as non uniform meshes for the Greenland ice sheet are considered. We present several weak and strong scaling studies confirming the robustness of the approach and the parallel scalability of the FROSch implementation. Among the highlights of the numerical results are a weak scaling study for up to 32 K processor cores (8 K MPI-ranks and 4 OpenMP threads) and 566 M degrees of freedom for the velocity problem as well as a strong scaling study for up to 4 K processor cores (and MPI-ranks) and 68 M degrees of freedom for the coupled problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chapter 12: Sea Level Rise

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by about 7-8 inches (about 16-21 cm) since 1900, with about 3 of those inches (about 7 cm) occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substantial contribution to GMSL rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Relative to the year 2000, GMSL is very likely to rise by 0.3-0.6 feet (9-18 cm) by 2030, 0.5-1.2 feet (15-38 cm) by 2050, and 1.0-4.3 feet (30-130 cm) by 2100. Future pathways have little effect on projected GMSL rise in the first half of the century, but significantly affect projections for the second half of the century. Emerging science regarding Antarctic ice sheet stability suggests that, for high emission scenarios, a GMSL rise exceeding 8 feet (2.4 m) by 2100 is physically possible, although the probability of such an extreme outcome cannot currently be assessed. Regardless of pathway, it is extremely likely that GMSL rise will continue beyond 2100. Relative sea level (RSL) rise in this century will vary along U.S. coastlines due, in part, to changes in Earth's gravitational field and rotation from melting of land ice, changes in ocean circulation, and vertical land motion (very high confidence). For almost all future GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be greater than the global average in the U.S. Northeast and the western Gulf of Mexico. In intermediate and low GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be less than the global average in much of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. For high GMSL rise scenarios, RSL rise is likely to be higher than the global average along all U.S. coastlines outside Alaska. Almost all U.S. coastlines experience more than global mean sea level rise in response to Antarctic ice loss, and thus would be particularly affected under extreme GMSL rise scenarios involving substantial Antarctic mass loss. As sea levels have risen, the number of tidal floods each year that cause minor impacts (also called "nuisance floods") have increased 5- to 10-fold since the 1960s in several U.S. coastal cities. Rates of increase are accelerating in over 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Tidal flooding will continue increasing in depth, frequency, and extent this century. Assuming storm characteristics do not change, sea level rise will increase the frequency and extent of extreme flooding associated with coastal storms, such as hurricanes and nor'easters. A projected increase in the intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic could increase the probability of extreme flooding along most of the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast states beyond what would be projected based solely on RSL rise. However, there is low confidence in the projected increase in frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes, and the associated flood risk amplification and flood effects could be offset or amplified by such factors as changes in overall storm frequency or tracks.

Sweet, W. V.↗

Evaluating Material Circular Efficacy of Waste-Management Scenarios Using PV ICE (PV in the Circular Economy) Tool

To meet the nation’s clean energy needs, it is projected that at least 1 TW of solar photovoltaics (PV) will be installed by 2050. To make this transition to solar energy sustainable, planning for a circular economy that maximizes reuse, repair, and recycle is crucial. The objective of this poster is to evaluate the circular efficacy of waste-management interventions, while considering social factors, using PV ICE, a modeling tool that quantifies future mass flows of PV based on dynamic, real-world data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Field-Tunable Interactions and Frustration in Underlayer-Mediated Artificial Spin Ice

We report that artificial spin ice systems have opened experimental windows into a range of model magnetic systems through the control of interactions among nanomagnet moments. This control has previously been enabled by altering the nanomagnet size and the geometry of their placement. Here we demonstrate that the interactions in artificial spin ice can be further controlled by including a soft ferromagnetic underlayer below the moments. Such a substrate also breaks the symmetry in the array when magnetized, introducing a directional component to the correlations. Using spatially resolved magneto-optical Kerr effect microscopy to image the demagnetized ground states, we show that the correlation of the demagnetized states depends on the direction of the underlayer magnetization. Further, the relative interaction strength of nearest and next-nearest neighbors varies significantly with the array geometry. We exploit this feature to induce frustration in an inherently unfrustrated square lattice geometry, demonstrating new possibilities for effective geometries in two-dimensional nanomagnetic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Carbon dioxide warming of the early Earth

Svante Arrhenius' research in atmospheric physics extended beyond the recent past and the near future states of the Earth, which today are at the center of sociopolitical attention. His plan encompassed all of the physical phenomena known at the time to relate to the formation and evolution of stars and planets. His two-volume textbook on cosmic physics is a comprehensive synopsis of the field. The inquiry into the possible cause of the ice ages and the theory of selective wavelength filter control led Arrhenius to consider the surface states of the other terrestrial planets, and of the ancient Earth before it had been modified by the emergence of life. The rapid escape of hydrogen and the equilibration with igneous rocks required that carbon in the early atmosphere prevailed mainly in oxidized form as carbon dioxide, together with other photoactive gases exerting a greenhouse effect orders of magnitude larger than in our present atmosphere. This effect, together with the ensuing chemical processes, would have set the conditions for life to evolve on our planet, seeded from spores spreading through an infinite Universe, and propelled, as Arrhenius thought, by stellar radiation pressure.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗