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DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating How Climate Adaptation Measures Affect the Interconnected Water‐Energy Resource Systems of the Western United States

Abstract The Western US faces increasing water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet water demands for the region's cities, agriculture, and hydropower generators. Existing literature suggests that climate adaptation measures such as water conservation, cropland retirement, wastewater recycling, and managed aquifer recharge can alleviate some of these challenges. Few analyses, however, compare the relative efficacy and system‐wide effects of these adaptations under different climate projections across the entire Western United States. Here we use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate, by sector and sub‐region, how the widespread implementation of these adaptive measures impacts water demands, water deliveries, and electricity use related to the water system for three different climate projections. We find that wastewater recycling has greater potential to lower unmet indoor water demands than urban indoor water conservation measures. However, when implemented at scale, indoor water conservation reduces electricity use by an average of 683 Terawatt hours while wastewater recycling increases energy use by an average of 721 Terawatt hours, cumulatively from 2020 to 2070. Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge adaptations increase the ability to meet agricultural water demand, increase groundwater storage, and reduce summertime electricity use. While most of these findings are consistent across different climate projections, the benefits of aquifer recharge are sensitive to spatial variation of precipitation. Given the limitations and tradeoffs of each individually, the results suggest that a portfolio of adaptation measures will be needed for a climate‐resilient water and energy future in the Western US. Plain Language Summary The Western US faces increased water stress from the impacts of climate change, making it difficult to meet demands for cities, agriculture, and hydropower facilities. Adaptation measures like water conservation, retiring agricultural lands, recycling wastewater, and storing water underground can address these challenges. However, there is little modeling to understand the impact of these adaptations if they were implemented across the entire Western US while also considering climate change. We use a Western US‐wide water systems model to evaluate how implementing adaptation measures impacts groundwater levels, the ability to meet water demands, and electricity use related to water in three different possible climate futures. We find that recycling wastewater to drinking water standards does a better job of meeting urban water demands than water conservation measures. However, indoor water conservation reduces energy use for water while recycling wastewater increases energy use for water. Retiring agricultural lands and storing water underground both increase the ability to meet agricultural water demands, increase underground water storage, and reduce summertime energy use. No adaptation measures provides benefits across every metric we track. Therefore, multiple adaptation measures will likely be needed to achieve a climate‐resilient future for energy and water in the Western US. Key Points Water‐related climate change adaptations have different benefits and tradeoffs for interconnected water‐energy systems in the Western U.S. Wastewater recycling most increases urban water coverage, but has a significant tradeoff in the form of greater electricity use Cropland retirement and aquifer recharge benefit water and electricity systems most in the summer when those systems are most stressed

Singhal, A↗

DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios

A growing number of studies report the impact of climate change on the supply, demand, transport, and cost of energy. However, there is lack of comprehensive overview and understanding of climate change impacts on energy across technologies and scales. Here, we conduct a systematic assessment of results from 186 papers on potential impacts of climate change on energy. Results show that increased cooling demand and decreased heating demand is anticipated globally. Similarly, increases in bio-energy and hydro power and a possible decrease in thermal electricity supply is projected. Overall changes in heating and cooling demand, increased thermal cooling, and reduced hydropower supply in Europe, India and Latin America are projected 35 at the regional scale. Furthermore, our review revealed that studies use a wide range of inconsistent methods and data sources. To move forward, the study proposes a consistent multi-model assessment framework for a comprehensive understanding of climate impacts on energy.

Yalew, Seleshi G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and adaptations on the energy-water nexus: a framework and California case study

Abstract Electricity and water systems are inextricably linked through water demands for energy generation, and through energy demands for using, moving, and treating water and wastewater. Climate change may stress these interdependencies, together referred to as the energy-water nexus, by reducing water availability for hydropower generation and by increasing irrigation and electricity demand for groundwater pumping, among other feedbacks. Further, many climate adaptation measures to augment water supplies—such as water recycling and desalination—are energy-intensive. However, water and electricity system climate vulnerabilities and adaptations are often studied in isolation, without considering how multiple interactive risks may compound. This paper reviews the fragmented literature and develops a generalized framework for understanding these implications of climate change on the energy-water nexus. We apply this framework in a case study to quantify end-century direct climate impacts on California’s water and electricity resources and estimate the magnitude of the indirect cross-sectoral feedback of electricity demand from various water adaptation strategies. Our results show that increased space cooling demand and decreased hydropower generation are the most significant direct climate change impacts on California’s electricity sector by end-century. In California’s water sector, climate change impacts directly on surface water availability exceed demand changes, but have considerable uncertainty, both in direction and magnitude. Additionally, we find that the energy demands of water sector climate adaptations could significantly affect California’s future electricity system needs. If the worst-case water shortage occurs under climate change, water-conserving adaptation measures can provide large energy savings co-benefits, but other energy-intensive water adaptations may double the direct impacts of climate change on the state’s electricity resource requirement. These results highlight the value of coordinated adaptation planning between the energy and water sectors to achieve mutually beneficial solutions for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reliability and resilience of environmental flows under uncertainty: reconsidering water year types and inconsistent flow requirements in California

Abstract Environmental water allocation in California is a complex legal process involving various government agencies and stakeholders. E-flow requirements can be based on annual runoff typologies called water year types (WYTs), which dictate water volume, timing, and duration. In this study, we examined hydropower licensing documents of the major water and power projects in the Central Sierra Nevada to catalog e-flow requirements by WYT. In this study case, we identify how WYT classification systems and categories vary across and within different basins. Additionally, we assessed the impacts of climate change on hydrology, the frequency of WYTs identified, and the reliability and resilience of e-flows using future projections (2031–2060) of 10 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). We then propose a potential adaptation strategy using a 30 year moving percentiles approach to recalculate WYTs. We identified eight WYT classifications systems were identified, and their WYT distributions statistically significantly changes across all GCMs, even though most GCMs indicate no statistically significant change in hydrology. Disparities in future impacts are observed among and within hydropower projects, with some river reaches showing negative impacts on reliability and resilience. The adaptation strategy can generally boost resilience and improve reliability, but simply updating existing WYT thresholds without flexible regulatory frameworks reconsidering WYTs and e-flows thresholds, may not yield substantial improvements. Challenges in managing e-flows in California within regulatory and hydroclimatic contexts are intricate due to the lack of standardized approaches, leading to inconsistencies and potential conflicts among stakeholders, that will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Thus, we emphasize that targeted, site-specific, and adaptive management strategies are crucial, besides the need for a harmonized and consistent approach to defining and applying WYT categories and methods and/or e-flow assessments.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydro + Storage Sizing Tool

The Hydro + Storage Sizing Tool recommends battery sizes and configurations to maximize financial performance of a battery investment that is integrated with a hydropower plant for a facility participating in a competitive electricity market. While the tool is primarily designed for hydropower facilities, it also works with other forms of baseload and peaking generation.

Mosier, ThomasM↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aquapv

This project brings together a multidisciplinary team to develop tools and analysis that will help U.S. industry accelerate deployment of floating PV on reservoirs and estuaries through producing: • A tool to assess potential environmental interactions of FPV on reservoirs and estuaries and thresholds for corresponding impacts. • A tailored FPV-specific techno-economic tool to guide users on financial performance and corresponding design considerations. • A synthesized tool, AquaPV, that combines the environmental and economic tools. • A set of case studies on an open-loop reservoir with a traditional hydropower plant (i.e., connected to a natural waterbody), closed-loop reservoir with a proposed pumped storage hydropower plant (i.e., manmade and disconnected from a natural waterbody), and a marine estuary (i.e., where a river meets the ocean), with an FPV system designed and modeled for each site. • A review of regulatory, environmental, and stakeholder opportunities and challenges to identify clear regulatory and environmental pathways to siting FPV on U.S. reservoirs. • A novel, high-fidelity geospatial resource assessment to estimate FPV technical potential on reservoirs in the United States.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

DOE OSTI2024

NPD Hydro

This tool, the Non-Powered Dam Hydropower Development and Ranking Opportunity Tool (NPD HYDRO), allows users to prioritize or rank NPD sites for future development based on user-defined priorities. Benefits can be evaluated in several categories: the grid, community, industry, and environment (represented by the GCIE impact scores in the tool. In addition, the tool provides the user with a qualitative measure for the feasibility of adding energy storage during NPD conversion, specifically battery, hydrogen electrolysis, and pumped-storage hydropower (PSH). By taking a holistic approach to the potential range of benefits provided by NPD conversions with results tailored to the user’s priorities, NPD HYDRO provides the opportunity for national-level screening and enables users to focus on the sites that are most closely aligned with their interests.

Woodruff, Nathan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroboost

HydroBoost is the most realistic revenue optimization tool for the hybridization of hydropower and battery energy storage systems to date. The innovative representation of how operators actually schedule hydropower in practice results in more realistic predictions of revenue and operations. Unlike other optimization tools, HydroBoost generates forecast energy prices with uncertainty to use in the optimization. This allows HydroBoost to give users a range of potential revenue with an upper bound using the perfect foresight pricing and a lower bound using a naive persistence forecast model. Additional forecast can be generated and used in the optimization, such as additive models, random forest, and neural networks to give further insight into potential revenue. HydroBoost has been designed to be applicable for both run-of-river and reservoir storage sites. The primary focus is on the day-ahead market and requires year-long data with an hour time-step. All time-series input and constraints are contained in an Excel worksheet for convince. The user will run the forecasting generation first with a Python script to give the optimization model the necessary requirements. Next the optimization is ran using Julia and results are generated and stored into a directory as csv files. HydroBoost includes an additional module to generate figures based on the results of the optimization simulation. The results help analyze the results and users to draw insights into how the hydro and battery systems are operated and the revenue each is producing. Additionally, the difference between the perfect foresight model and models that include forecast can easily be inspected.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Cross-Border Renewable Energy Trading in South Asia [Slides]

India's national renewable energy zones for wind power and solar photovoltaics (PV) could become regional green power resources if South Asian countries liberalize their rules for cross-border energy trading (CBET). Similarly, Nepal's wealth of hydropower could be more valuable to Nepal and its neighbors with greater market integration. These are the findings of a study by the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that tested trading scenarios for wind power, solar power, and hydropower among Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The NREL study found that wheeling power through India's interstate transmission system (ISTS) could be just as efficient operationally as building new high-voltage direct current (HVDC) lines from the renewable energy zones directly to the importing country. This means that CBET integration could substitute for new long-distance HVDC transmission - which could cost billions of dollars - while delivering to all participating countries the same benefits for renewable energy development and decarbonization.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Border Electricity Trading and Renewable Energy Zones

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous Acoustic Receiver System for 3D Tracking and Monitoring Real-Time Fish Survival (CRADA 448)

Develop technologies that reduce the delay between changing hydropower operations and the acquisition of knowledge regarding fish behavior and survival and to reduce the cost and effort to obtain behavioral information of fish that is both accurate and detailed. The technologies being proposed would allow hydropower operators to quickly understand the impact of operational changes on fish and allow fisheries researchers to study fish behavior in high resolution at locations that previously would have been unfeasible.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Fish Identification from Sonar Data: CRADA 481 [Abstract only]

To help solve the challenges of hydropower energy production related to the potential for eel injury and mortality from passage through hydropower turbines, we will develop a deep learning method for identifying migrating eels from imaging sonar. This project continues with a prior project conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in FY2018-2019. The proposed method employs Convolution Neural Network (CNN), a powerful deep learning method for image classification, to distinguish between images of eels and non-eel moving objects. We propose to collect more laboratory data and add more existing field data to train a powerful deep learning model. In addition to eels and sticks as classified in previous studies, we will add images containing several non-eel fish species and macrophyte mats to the training data. A multi-class classification model will be developed to distinguish these objects. Object detection algorithm will be explored and developed to locate and identify multiple objects in each sonar frame. Motion analysis will be performed to track the movement of objects in sonar video clips. We will also improve the data conversion algorithm so that it can read in both DIDSON and ARIS (both are imaging sonars developed by Sound Metrics Corp) data files and convert them to images with comparably high resolution, regardless of the varying detection ranges in different environments. The developed algorithms will be packaged as a software with a graphic user interface. The software will be evaluated by external collaborators in the field. The developed framework can be generalized for automatic monitoring of fish passage and migration using other imaging sonars like ARIS and will benefit the design and operation of ecologically friendly hydroelectric projects. The developed wavelet and CNN model configuration parameters can potentially be transferred to lamprey detection in similar riverine environments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grid Energy Storage: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the Federal Government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the Federal Government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. To combat the climate crisis and avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, the U.S. is committed to achieving a 50 to 52 percent reduction from 2005 levels in economy-wide net greenhouse gas pollution by 2030, creating a carbon pollution-free power sector by 2035, and achieving net zero emissions economy-wide by no later than 2050. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) recognizes that a secure, resilient supply chain will be critical in harnessing emissions outcomes and capturing the economic opportunity inherent in the energy sector transition. Potential vulnerabilities and risks to the energy sector industrial base must be addressed throughout every stage of this transition. The DOE energy supply chain strategy report summarizes the key elements of the energy supply chain as well as the strategies the U.S. Government is starting to employ to address them. Additionally, it describes recommendations for Congressional action. DOE has identified technologies and crosscutting topics for analysis in the one-year time frame set by the Executive Order. Along with the capstone policy report, DOE is releasing 11 deep dive assessment documents, including this one, covering the following technology sectors: carbon capture materials; electric grid including transformers and high voltage direct current (HVDC); energy storage; fuel cells and electrolyzers; hydropower including pumped storage hydropower (PSH); neodymium magnets; nuclear energy; platinum group metals and other catalysts; semiconductors; solar photovoltaics (PV); and wind. DOE is also releasing two deep dive assessments on the following crosscutting topics: Commercialization and competitiveness; and cybersecurity and digital components. More information can be found at www.energy.gov/policy/supplychains.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

PNNL CRADA No. 488, Amendment 2 with Natel Energy, Inc.: The Center Sender

Under the Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) No. 488, awarded to Natel Energy, Inc. (Natel) for third place in the Fish Protection Prize 2020 initiative, research was conducted on the Center Sender concept, a simple physical or combined physical and electrical device intended to guide fish to the safest path through a hydropower intake or water diversion. Applying this to a hydropower turbine, the Center Sender can be designed to divert fish to the center of the turbine, where blade velocities are slower and the risk of severe injuries due blade strike, pinching, and grinding are reduced.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

EverGREEN 2045: An Energy Mix to Decarbonize Washington State

Washington State’s future resource mix is likely to be comprised of intermittent renewables and carbon-free generation including hydropower by 2045. Generation will likely be comprised of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), batteries, pumped storage hydropower (PSH), existing nuclear power plants, and potentially enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactor technologies. To assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix, we partner with X-energy (advanced reactor design) and AltaRock Energy (enhanced geothermal system) for proprietary cost data. After estimating the costs of these two new technologies, we design plausible future resource mix scenarios to meet Washington State’s Clean Energy Transformation Act which transitions the state to carbon-free generation by 2045. We assess the cost and stability of the future resource mix with power system analysis tools, finding revenues are sufficient to cover variable operating and maintenance costs for most technologies providing power in 2030 and 2045, but capacity payments or power purchase agreements will likely be necessary for flexible resources, including enhanced geothermal systems and advanced nuclear reactors, to participate in the future resource mix.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Financial Analysis of the Smallmouth Bass Flows implemented at the Glen Canyon Dam during Water Year 2024

The Glen Canyon Dam (GCD) is a Colorado River Storage Project (CRSP) power resource that is a component of the Salt Lake City Area Integrated Projects (SLCA/IP). The 2016 record of decision (ROD) for the GCD long-term experimental and management plan (LTEMP) final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) specifies criteria for GCD monthly water releases, daily and hourly operating limits, and experimental releases. This report presents a financial analysis of the Smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) (SMB) flows implemented at GCD during Water Year (WY) 2024. These bypass flows were introduced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) as an emergency response to the growing threat posed by invasive SMB in the Colorado River ecosystem downstream of the dam. SMB are a non-native predatory species that pose a significant threat to native fish populations, including the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha). The thermal regime below GCD, typically cold due to hypolimnetic releases from Lake Powell, has historically served as a thermal barrier limiting SMB establishment. However, persistently low reservoir levels in recent years have reduced stratification in Lake Powell, allowing warmer water to be released downstream. This has enabled SMB to spawn successfully below the dam, prompting urgent ecological concerns. To mitigate the risk of SMB proliferation, the USBR implemented a series of bypass flows in WY 2024. Drawn from a lower elevation than the penstocks, the bypass structures released cooler water downstream. These short-duration bypass flows aimed to keep temperatures cool enough to prevent SMB from spawning, thereby reducing the ecological threat posed by this invasive species. Although motivated by ecological objectives, these bypass flows came with financial tradeoffs. Releasing water through the bypass structures instead of the turbines at GCD reduced hydropower generation, resulting in a significantly lower financial position for Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is responsible for marketing the electricity produced by the GCD Powerplant. This report analyzes the financial impact of the SMB flows implemented from July to November 2024. These experimental releases led to an estimated financial cost of approximately $18.9 million, primarily driven by the substantial volume of water diverted through the bypass structures. This study applies an integrated set of tools to estimate WAPA financial impacts by simulating GCD under two types of cases; namely, (1) a “With Experiment” case that mimics the water operations that actually occurred, including the SMB bypass flows, and (2) a “Without Experiment” case that simulates operations under the assumption that the SMB flows did not occur. Both cases comply with LTEMP hourly and daily operating criteria, and the monthly water release volumes are assumed to be identical under both cases. The Colorado River Storage Project Python-based model (CRiSPPy) model was the main modeling tool used to simulate the dispatch of the GCD hydropower plant and associated water releases from Lake Powell. In the modeling process, the research team used extensive data sets and historical information on SLCA/IP power plant characteristics, hydrologic conditions, and WAPA’s power purchases and sales prices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗