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At least 577 records · Page 32

Spatial and Temporal Uncertainty of Crop Yield Aggregations

The aggregation of simulated gridded crop yields to national or regional scale requires information on temporal and spatial patterns of crop-specific harvested areas. This analysis estimates the uncertainty of simulated gridded yield time series related to the aggregation with four different harvested area data sets. We compare aggregated yield time series from the Global Gridded Crop Model Inter-comparison project for four crop types from 14 models at global, national, and regional scale to determine aggregation-driven differences in mean yields and temporal patterns as measures of uncertainty. The quantity and spatial patterns of harvested areas differ for individual crops among the four datasets applied for the aggregation. Also simulated spatial yield patterns differ among the 14 models. These differences in harvested areas and simulated yield patterns lead to differences in aggregated productivity estimates, both in mean yield and in the temporal dynamics. Among the four investigated crops, wheat yield (17% relative difference) is most affected by the uncertainty introduced by the aggregation at the global scale. The correlation of temporal patterns of global aggregated yield time series can be as low as for soybean (r = 0.28).For the majority of countries, mean relative differences of nationally aggregated yields account for10% or less. The spatial and temporal difference can be substantial higher for individual countries. Of the top-10 crop producers, aggregated national multi-annual mean relative difference of yields can be up to 67% (maize, South Africa), 43% (wheat, Pakistan), 51% (rice, Japan), and 427% (soybean, Bolivia).Correlations of differently aggregated yield time series can be as low as r = 0.56 (maize, India), r = 0.05∗Corresponding (wheat, Russia), r = 0.13 (rice, Vietnam), and r = −0.01 (soybean, Uruguay). The aggregation to sub-national scale in comparison to country scale shows that spatial uncertainties can cancel out in countries with large harvested areas per crop type. We conclude that the aggregation uncertainty can be substantial for crop productivity and production estimations in the context of food security, impact assessment, and model evaluation exercises.

Aggregation uncertainty↗

Characterization of Wildfire Emissions in California: Analysis of Airborne Measurements of Trace Gases from 2013 to 2016

Biomass burning, which includes wildfires, prescribed, and agricultural fires, is an important source of trace gases and particles, and can influence air quality on a local, regional, and global scale. Biomass burning emissions are an important source of several key trace gases including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). With the threat of wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, the importance of characterizing wildfire emissions is vital. In this work we characterize trace gas emissions from 9 wildfire events in California between 2013 – 2016, in some cases with multiple measurements performed during different burn periods of a specific wildfire. During this period airborne measurements of CO2, CH4, water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX). Located in the Bay Area of California, AJAX is a joint effort between NASA Ames Research Center and H211, LLC. AJAX makes in-situ airborne measurements of trace gases 2-4 times per month, resulting in 229 flights to date since 2011. Results presented include emission ratios (ER) of trace gases measured by AJAX during fire flights, and comparisons of ERs are made for each fire, which differ in time, location, burning intensity, and fuel type. We also use our airborne measurements to compare with photochemical grid model results to assess model approximations of plume transport and chemical evolution from select wildfires.

Parworth, Caroline L.↗

Four Years of Airborne Measurements of Wildfire Emissions in California, with a Focus on the Evolution of Emissions During the Soberanes Megafire

Biomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles which can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, characterizing wildfire emissions and their evolution is vital. In this work we report in situ airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) from nine wildfire events in California between 2013 and 2016, which were sampled as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) based at NASA Ames Research Center. One of those fires, the Soberanes Megafire, began on 22 July 2016 and burned for three months. During that time, five flights were executed to sample emissions near and downwind of the Soberanes wildfire. In situ data are used to determine enhancement ratios (ERs), or excess mixing ratio relative to CO2, as well as assess O3 production from the fire. Changes in the emissions as a function of fire evolution are explored. Air quality impacts downwind of the fire are addressed using ground-based monitoring site data, satellite smoke products, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model.

Iraci, Laura T.↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Large-Eddy Simulation of the Variable Speed Power Turbine Cascade with Inflow Turbulence

The main goal of this is to implement a digital filtering method to generate turbulence upstream and a sub-grid model (Localized dynamic k-equation model (LDKM)) in the framework of LES which together enable reproduction of the effect of inflow turbulence on the transition seen in the VSPT experimental data at the cruise condition (incidence angle of 40o and Tu=0.5%, 5%, 10% and 15%.).

CFD↗

Large-Eddy Simulation of Variable Speed Power Turbine Cascade with Inflow Turbulence

Numerical results are presented from theNASAGlenn Research Center’sin-house turbomachinery code, Glenn-HT applied to the Variable Speed Power Turbine (VSPT) experiment at the NASA Transonic Turbine Blade Cascade Facility.The main goal of this paper is to implement a digital filtering method to generate turbulence upstream and a sub-grid model (Localized dynamic k-equation model (LDKM)) in the framework of LES in order to investigate the effect of inflow turbulence on the transition seen in the VSPT experimental data at the cruise condition (incidence angle of 40oand Tu = 0.5%, 5%,10%, and 15%). Although the boundary layer on thesuction side and pressure side of the blades is initially laminar due to favorable pressure gradient, the laminar flow can transition to turbulent flow past a separation zoneon the suction sideor by natural or by-pass transition. This process determinesthe total-pressure lossesin the wake. Therefore, it is desirable to develop a reliable prediction tool to accurately capture the transition mechanism in blade rows operated under the conditions of low Reynolds number andat a variety offree stream turbulence conditions. Our numerical studies reveal that the location of separationis rather insensitive to the level of Tu, however the effect ofincreasingTu seems to be in reducing the size and ultimately suppressing the separation bubble. In addition, we performedspectral analysis to identify the peak frequencies in the region where the separation bubble is formed, which provides valuable insights into the transition/separation mechanism.

CFD↗

The orbit and stellar masses of the archetype colliding-wind binary WR 140

We present updated orbital elements for the Wolf–Rayet (WR) binary WR 140 (HD 193793; WC7pd + O5.5fc). The new orbital elements were derived using previously published measurements along with 160 new radial velocity measurements across the 2016 periastron passage of WR 140. Additionally, four new measurements of the orbital astrometry were collected with the CHARA Array. With these measurements, we derive stellar masses of M(WR)=10.31±0.45Mꙩ and M(O)=29.27±1.14Mꙩ⁠. We also include a discussion of the evolutionary history of this system from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis model grid to show that this WR star likely formed primarily through mass-loss in the stellar winds, with only a moderate amount of mass lost or transferred through binary interactions.

Joshua D. Thomas↗

Asteroseismic Inversions of Mixed Acoustic-Gravity Modes to Probe the Stellar Core Structure

The discovery of mixed acoustic-gravity modes of oscillations of moderate mass stars opens a unique opportunity to infer the structure of the inner energy-generating cores and thus test the stellar evolution theory. The mixed modes have properties of internal gravity waves (g-modes) in the convectively stable helium core and properties of acoustic modes outside the core. We select several sets of the oscillation mode frequencies in the mass range from about 1.3 to 1.6 solar masses from the Kepler Legacy database, and apply the optimally localized averaging inversion technique previously developed for low-degree helioseismology. The inversion technique takes into account the uncertainties in the determination of the mass and radius of the stars, as well as the surface effects. The methodology provides sensitivity kernels for various structure properties, including the sound speed, density, and Ledoux parameter of convective stability, and, thus, the direct relationship between the stellar properties and the deviation of observed frequencies from the reference models. The inversion results reveal significant deviations in the core structure from the reference models calculated using the MESA evolutionary code for the stellar parameters obtained by the asteroseismic model grid fitting. Our analysis shows that the best resolution of the inner helium core and surrounding shell is achieved in inversions for the Ledoux parameter.

SMD↗

Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing

My work during the past year has involved application and development of the M3D code. M3D (Multi-level 3D) carries out simulation studies of plasmas using multiple levels of physics, geometry, and grid models. M3D combines a two dimensional unstructured mesh with finite element discretization in poloidal planes, with a pseudo spectral representation in the toroidal direction. Two critical MHD issues have emerged with the ITER effort: the suppression of edge localized modes (ELMs) by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) and disruptions. Large ELMs can cause an unacceptable heat and particle flux to the wall and divertor. The application of RMPs to ITER is now being planned, although there are still some questions about how RMPs work. Disruptions can produce a much larger heat and particle than ELMs, and in addition can cause unacceptable mechanical stress on the wall and blanket. I have been carrying out extended MHD simulations which address these issues.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimating the Value of Utility-Scale Solar Technologies in California Under a 40% Renewable Portfolio Standard (Report Summary) (Presentation)

Concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage (CSP-TES) is a unique source of solar energy in that its output can be shifted over time. The ability of CSP-TES to be a flexible source of generation may be particularly valuable in regions with high overall penetration of solar energy, such as the state of California. California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requires the state to increase generation from eligible renewable energy resources to reach 33% of retail electricity sales by 2020. Beyond 2020, California targets a further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. To help reach this goal, current California governor Jerry Brown has stated that a higher 40% RPS might be reachable in the near term. The levelized cost of energy is generally emphasized when assessing the economic viability of renewable energy systems implemented to achieve the RPS. However, the operational and capacity benefits of such systems are often ignored, which can lead to incorrect economic comparisons between CSP-TES and variable renewable generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV). Here we evaluate a 40% RPS scenario in a California grid model with PV or CSP-TES providing the last 1% of RPS energy. We compare the technical and economic implications of integrating either solar technology under several sensitivities, finding that the ability to displace new conventional thermal generation capacity may be the largest source of value of CSP-TES compared to PV at high solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

LES ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Implementation Strategy

This document illustrates the design of the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) workflow to provide a routine, high-resolution modeling capability to augment the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility’s high-density observations. LASSO will create a powerful new capability for furthering ARM’s mission to advance understanding of cloud, radiation, aerosol, and land-surface processes. The combined observational and modeling elements will enable a new level of scientific inquiry by connecting processes and context to observations and providing needed statistics for details that cannot be measured. The result will be improved process understanding that facilitates concomitant improvements in climate model parameterizations. The initial LASSO implementation will be for ARM’s Southern Great Plains site in Oklahoma and will focus on shallow convection, which is poorly simulated by climate models due in part to clouds’ typically small spatial scale compared to model grid spacing, and because the convection involves complicated interactions of microphysical and boundary layer processes.

Gustafson Jr., WI↗

Renewable Energy Data, Analysis, and Decisions Viewed through a Case Study in Bangladesh: Preprint

Many developing countries around the world have signaled their intention to transition their energy sectors to rely on cleaner sources of electricity generation for a variety of reasons that may include complying with their Nationally Determined Contributions (in support of the Paris Climate Agreement), increasing energy security, or reducing air pollution. Renewable energy resources are increasingly a cost competitive option for new electricity generation; however, nations must consider renewable energy potential if they wish to increase these technologies in their electricity generation mix. Yet, goal setting, policymaking, grid modeling, and investment decisions that will enable renewable energy development all depend on the existence and quality of renewable energy resource data. This paper aims to summarize the relationship between renewable energy data, analysis, and decision making for developing countries seeking to transition their energy sector and to consider Bangladesh as a case study of a country that has worked with development organizations and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to develop a national inventory of renewable energy resource data to enable critical decision making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Edge Deployed Cyber Security Hardware Architecture for Energy Delivery Systems

At a time of accelerated cyber conflict, an “edge deployed” system will supply sensor based cyber ground truth to live grid models, and under secure command, take complete control of suspected rogue programmable logic controllers (PLCs) to maintain bulk power delivery to chosen critical sites. This hardware solution is purpose built to be agnostic to PLC vendor or protocol with the realization that a widely deployed solution must function with existing devices for rapid adoption by industry. An overview of the situation and how this developed system functions is provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improved Line Outage Detection in Transmission Systems with Few PMUs

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems historically lack enough measurements, making their real-time monitoring almost impossible. Recent deployment of diverse types of devices such as phasor measurement units (PMUs), smart meters, solar inverters and weather information sensors opens up new ways of monitoring these systems, with the assistance of customized machine learning (ML) applications. The paper describes a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams and creates synchronous measurement snapshots to be used by a hybrid robust state estimator (SE) which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for ML model refinement. Improved monitoring performance due to the use of developed computational framework is experimentally observed by simulated scenarios on an electric utility’s distribution system.

Distribution systems, graph learning, machine lear↗

EVs@Scale Next-Gen Profiles - EV Profile Capture 2024

As part of the U.S. DOE EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles (NGP) project, the profile capture and analysis of production electric vehicles undergoing high power charging (HPC) is conducted over a wide range of conditions to explore variance and performance. Charge session parameters are collected from both the electric vehicle (EV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) at a rate of 10Hz and entered into a time-series database for analysis. These charge profiles are captured under nominal and off-nominal conditions, exploring the impact of battery state of charge (SOC), battery temperature, vehicle condition, smart charge management (SCM), and EVSE limitations. Nominal conditions are defined to be ideal conditions that should transfer the maximum allowable energy in the minimum possible amount of time. Nominal condition profiles are compared across EVs to characterize state-of-the-art EV charging performance against one another. Off-nominal condition profiles are compared against its nominal condition profile counterpart to highlight the variance across less desirable starting conditions within a single EV. This EV Profile Capture 2024 report stands as an update from the EV Profile Capture 2023 report to include the additional EV & EVSE assets tested and analyzed in 2024. The major updates within this report include the addition of three next-generation electric vehicles, added test cases, and further analysis. This expansion of analysis includes power profiles, power distribution, quantifying SOC, energy and range performance, EVSE limitation impacts, boost converter performance, etc. Additionally, NGP time-series data has been used as input towards three national laboratory-led grid modelling efforts: ANL’s IEEE-37 HIL model, INL’s Caldera model, and NREL’s EVI-X model. A summary of these platforms and how NGP has worked to improve their effectiveness has also been added to this years’ report.

Thurston, Sam↗

Strengthening U.S. National Security Through Advanced Energy Innovation

NREL's work in strategic energy security is focused on keeping the United States secure and its citizens safe by applying expertise in advanced energy systems and technologies to prevent energy system disruptions from any source, natural or human. NREL pursues national security objectives by providing partners an accurate understanding of national and international security implications of global energy trends; novel installation, facility, and operational energy solutions; access to NREL R&D capabilities to incorporate advanced energy technologies and biomaterials into mission requirements; and the ability to test future technologies using large-scale grid modeling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HeatMap

SAND2021-14230 O HeatMap generates geospatial wildfire fuel models by applying machine learning algorithms to satellite imagery and weather station data. The code then leverages wildfire behavior software FlamMap to determine fire spread. It also uses PSLF software to model grid impacts and display data analytics for grid components that have been impacted by wildfire. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Danford, Forest↗

Modeling and Evaluation of Cyber-Attacks on Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are not only exposed to passive threats (e.g., physical faults) but also active threats such as cyber-attacks launched on the network-based control systems. The impact of cyber-attacks on GEB operation are not yet fully understood, especially as regards the performance of grid services. To quantify the consequences of cyber-attacks on GEBs, this paper proposes a modeling and simulation framework that includes different cyber-attack models and key performance indexes to quantify the performance of GEB operation under cyber-attacks. The framework is numerically demonstrated to model and evaluate cyber-attacks such as data intrusion attacks and Denial-of-Service attacks on a typical medium-sized office building that uses the BACnet/IP protocol for communication networks. Simulation results show that, while different types of attacks could compromise the building systems to different extents, attacks via the remote control of a chiller yield the most significant consequences on a building system’s operation, including both the building service and the grid service. It is also noted that a cyber-attack impacts the building systems during the attack period as well as the post-attack period, which suggests that both periods should be considered to fully evaluate the consequences of a cyber-attack.

Fu, Yanyang↗