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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Impact of a Merged Precipitation Data on Global Soil Moisture Variability

Accurate soil moisture information has proved to be important to climate simulations and climate and weather forecasts. However, many difficulties exist that limit our understanding of soil moisture distribution and variability. One of them is the lack of accurate precipitation with appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Precipitation as an input forcing to the land surface greatly influences soil moisture characteristics and variability. To improve precipitation data quality, an algorithm has been developed to generate a spatially and temporally continuous 3-hourly global precipitation data for the period of 1987 to present. This precipitation product is a combination of the precipitation from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) with the Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) employing a Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). In this study we investigate the impact of this merged/analyzed precipitation data on the global soil moisture variability using an Off-line Land-surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system. Two OLGA integrations starting from 1987 to 1993 are performed forced with the analyzed and GEOS-1 DAS precipitation respectively. We examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of soil moisture variability in response to the analyzed precipitation. The influence of this merged precipitation on the soil moisture variability and regional hydrological budget is estimated throughout the comparison with the results forced with the GEOS-1 DAS precipitation only. In the OLGA the sut@-grid scale horizontal heterogeneity is explicitly represented on the tile space. This provides a means to assess the role of the surface moisture heterogeneity in the interaction with the surface atmosphere and surface hydrological budget, and to validate OLGA results at tile space with in situ observation. ABRACOS (Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study), FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) I and HAPEX data will be used in the validation.

Yang, Runhua↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2001

Time-Dependent Simulations of Turbopump Flows

The objective of the current effort is to provide a computational framework for design and analysis of the entire fuel supply system of a liquid rocket engine, including high-fidelity unsteady turbopump flow analysis. This capability is needed to support the design of pump sub-systems for advanced space transportation vehicles that are likely to involve liquid propulsion systems. To date, computational tools for design/analysis of turbopump flows are based on relatively lower fidelity methods. An unsteady, three-dimensional viscous flow analysis tool involving stationary and rotational components for the entire turbopump assembly has not been available for real-world engineering applications. The present effort will provide developers with information such as transient flow phenomena at start up, impact of non-uniform inflows, system vibration and impact on the structure. In the proposed paper, the progress toward the capability of complete simulation of the turbo-pump for a liquid rocket engine is reported. The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbo-pump is used as a test case for evaluation of the hybrid MPI/Open-MP and MLP versions of the INS3D code. The relative motion of the grid systems for the rotor-stator interaction was obtained using overset grid techniques. Time-accuracy of the scheme has been evaluated with simple test cases. Unsteady computations for the SSME turbo-pump, which contains 114 zones with 34.5 million grid points, are carried out on Origin 2000 systems at NASA Ames Research Center. Results from these time-accurate simulations with moving boundary capability will be presented along with the performance of parallel versions of the code.

Kris, Cetin C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO 2 , temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

GMI-IPS: Python Processing Software for Aircraft Campaigns

NASA's Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) seeks to understand the impact of anthropogenic air pollution on gases in the Earth's atmosphere. Four flight campaigns are being deployed on a seasonal basis to establish a continuous global-scale data set intended to improve the representation of chemically reactive gases in global atmospheric chemistry models. The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI), is creating chemical transport simulations on a global scale for each of the ATom flight campaigns. To meet the computational demands required to translate the GMI simulation data to grids associated with the flights from the ATom campaigns, the GMI ICARTT Processing Software (GMI-IPS) has been developed and is providing key functionality for data processing and analysis in this ongoing effort. The GMI-IPS is written in Python and provides computational kernels for data interpolation and visualization tasks on GMI simulation data. A key feature of the GMI-IPS, is its ability to read ICARTT files, a text-based file format for airborne instrument data, and extract the required flight information that defines regional and temporal grid parameters associated with an ATom flight. Perhaps most importantly, the GMI-IPS creates ICARTT files containing GMI simulated data, which are used in collaboration with ATom instrument teams and other modeling groups. The initial main task of the GMI-IPS is to interpolate GMI model data to the finer temporal resolution (1-10 seconds) of a given flight. The model data includes basic fields such as temperature and pressure, but the main focus of this effort is to provide species concentrations of chemical gases for ATom flights. The software, which uses parallel computation techniques for data intensive tasks, linearly interpolates each of the model fields to the time resolution of the flight. The temporally interpolated data is then saved to disk, and is used to create additional derived quantities. In order to translate the GMI model data to the spatial grid of the flight path as defined by the pressure, latitude, and longitude points at each flight time record, a weighted average is then calculated from the nearest neighbors in two dimensions (latitude, longitude). Using SciPya's Regular Grid Interpolator, interpolation functions are generated for the GMI model grid and the calculated weighted averages. The flight path points are then extracted from the ATom ICARTT instrument file, and are sent to the multi-dimensional interpolating functions to generate GMI field quantities along the spatial path of the flight. The interpolated field quantities are then written to a ICARTT data file, which is stored for further manipulation. The GMI-IPS is aware of a generic ATom ICARTT header format, containing basic information for all flight campaigns. The GMI-IPS includes logic to edit metadata for the derived field quantities, as well as modify the generic header data such as processing dates and associated instrument files. The ICARTT interpolated data is then appended to the modified header data, and the ICARTT processing is complete for the given flight and ready for collaboration. The output ICARTT data adheres to the ICARTT file format standards V1.1. The visualization component of the GMI-IPS uses Matplotlib extensively and has several functions ranging in complexity. First, it creates a model background curtain for the flight (time versus model eta levels) with the interpolated flight data superimposed on the curtain. Secondly, it creates a time-series plot of the interpolated flight data. Lastly, the visualization component creates averaged 2D model slices (longitude versus latitude) with overlaid flight track circles at key pressure levels. The GMI-IPS consists of a handful of classes and supporting functionality that have been generalized to be compatible with any ICARTT file that adheres to the base class definition. The base class represents a generic ICARTT entry, only defining a single time entry and 3D spatial positioning parameters. Other classes inherit from this base class; several classes for input ICARTT instrument files, which contain the necessary flight positioning information as a basis for data processing, as well as other classes for output ICARTT files, which contain the interpolated model data. Utility classes provide functionality for routine procedures such as: comparing field names among ICARTT files, reading ICARTT entries from a data file and storing them in data structures, and returning a reduced spatial grid based on a collection of ICARTT entries. Although the GMI-IPS is compatible with GMI model data, it can be adapted with reasonable effort for any simulation that creates Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files. The same can be said of its adaptability to ICARTT files outside of the context of the ATom mission. The GMI-IPS contains just under 30,000 lines of code, eight classes, and a dozen drivers and utility programs. It is maintained with GIT source code management and has been used to deliver processed GMI model data for the ATom campaigns that have taken place to date.

Damon, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The GGCMI Phase 2 emulators: global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0)

Statistical emulation allows combining advantageous features of statistical and process-based crop models for understanding the effects of future climate changes on crop yields. We describe here the development of emulators for nine process-based crop models and five crops using output from the Global Gridded Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment is designed with the explicit goal of producing a structured training dataset for emulator development that samples across four dimensions relevant to crop yields: atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, temperature, water supply, and nitrogen inputs (CTWN). Simulations are run under two different adaptation assumptions: that growing seasons shorten in warmer climates, and that cultivar choice allows growing seasons to remain fixed. The dataset allows emulating the climatological-mean yield response of all models with a simple polynomial in mean growing-season values. Climatological-mean yields are a central metric in climate change impact analysis; we show here that they can be captured without relying on interannual variations. In general, emulation errors are negligible relative to differences across crop models or even across climate model scenarios; errors become significant only in some marginal lands where crops are not currently grown. We demonstrate that the resulting GGCMI emulators can reproduce yields under realistic future climate simulations, even though the GGCMI Phase 2 dataset is constructed with uniform CTWN offsets, suggesting that the effects of changes in temperature and precipitation distributions are small relative to those of changing means. The resulting emulators therefore capture relevant crop model responses in a lightweight, computationally tractable form, providing a tool that can facilitate model comparison, diagnosis of interacting factors affecting yields, and integrated assessment of climate impacts.

James A Franke↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a Prospective LCA Framework to Analyze Emerging Technologies in a Dynamic System Context

NREL's Lifecycle Analysis Integration into Opensource Numerical models (LiAISON) framework computes temporally explicit life cycle impacts and resource uses for specific technologies (foreground) in a dynamic system context (background). LiAISON computes results for a series of environmental mid-points enabling an analysis of prospective tradeoffs of emerging technologies toward 2100. This prospective feature is of critical importance when analyzing present-day emerging technologies whose large-scale impacts during deployment phases will occur in different, future system contexts. LiAISON systematically accounts for dynamic system changes by applying an integrated background of the future energy-economy-land-climate system, generated by exogenous integrated assessment models (IAMs). Using IAM scenarios, LiAISON generates a time-series of life cycle inventory (LCI) databases, which are then used to calculate the impacts per functional unit per time step. This expands current practice of using static, future system assumptions, e.g., a specific grid-mix each year. Further, IAM scenarios are provided in a standardized format of shared-socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and representative concentration pathways (RCP) combinations. These are coherent, regularly, published, and peer-reviewed scenario combinations that establish a reproducible and standardized societal and climate mitigation futures context. They are comparable across IAMs and expand the system boundary of the traditional LCA by including dimensions such as societal and behavioral changes. We apply the framework to assess two emerging Power-to-Hydrogen processes, high temperature electrolysis using solid oxide fuel cell (HT-SOE) and polymer electrolyte membrane electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline Hydrogen production process via steam methane reforming. Despite the decarbonized electricity systems' beneficial effects on the PtH2 processes' carbon intensities, we find environmental tradeoffs, which require technology improvements via learning-by-doing to be alleviated. Future work via ongoing collaborations will focus on linking the framework to other energy-economy-land-climate models and open-source life cycle inventory databases.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quasi-Steady Simulation of Glaze Ice Accretion and Heat Transfer in the Supercooled Large Droplet Regime in Atmospheric Turbulent Air Flow

Abstract To avoid the use of a computationally intensive full unsteady simulation while providing an accurate solution, a quasi-steady simulation has been performed to study glaze and mixed ice accretion in the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime in turbulent flow of atmospheric air. We have attempted to find the minimum time-step necessary to adequately simulate the icing process on an airfoil surface. Based on node displacement, a mesh morphing scheme has been adopted in the computations to account for the moving boundaries that are caused by the continuous ice buildup. We have modeled ice accretion on an airfoil surface for a time period of 232 s using several time steps. At each time-step we solved the steady-state conservation equations for the air and droplet phases and then used the results as initial conditions for the next time position. The magnitude of the time-step ranged from a least accurate two-shot simulation (where the time-step is 116 s) to a most accurate 2320-shot simulation (where the time-step is 0.1 s). In-between these two extreme time steps, we have performed a three-shot simulation (where the time-step is 77.33 s), a four-shot simulation (where the time-step is 58 s), a six-shot simulation (where the time-step is 38.67 s), a 46-shot simulation (where the time-step is 5 s), and a 232-shot simulation (where the time-step is 1 s). We have done so to find out the degree of accuracy (or inaccuracy) of the multishot simulation approach and to find out the appropriate time-step needed for a successful and valid quasi-steady simulation. A valid quasi-steady simulation needs to use a time-step that is small enough to reproduce the full time-dependent solution within a very small error band. We have found that both the 1 s and the 0.1 s time steps produce virtually identical results. This is the primary litmus test that proves the validity of the quasi-steady-state assumption. The results adopted in this paper are thus all based on the more conservative 0.1 s time-step. In the process of performing the simulations, remeshing was required in order to maintain the grid density in zones of high curvature to be able to capture the full physics in those zones. After successfully modeling glaze ice accretion over the airfoil surface using the 0.1 s quasi-steady simulation approach, the effects of supercooled large droplets (SLDs) impacting the surface have been examined and presented in terms of the variation of the local collection efficiency, the water film thickness, and the heat transfer rate. Examination of the variation of the angle that the ice horn makes with the airfoil chord line demonstrated a 20% improvement in angle prediction when the time-step is reduced from 116 s to 0.1 s. The analysis also reveals a 12% or 8.5% increase in the maximum collection efficiency, βmax, depending on whether the value of the liquid water content (LWC) has been doubled from 0.5 g/m3 to 1 g/m3, or the value of the freestream velocity has been doubled from 75 m/s to 150 m/s, respectively. Because of the need to monitor the local collection efficiency and convective heat fluxes at each shot (regardless of the number of shots employed), the approach adopted here was found to be effective in successively and successfully reproducing the curvature of the glaze ice horn.

Engineering↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lifetimes of Overshooting Convective Events using High-Frequency Gridded Radar Composites

Deep convection that penetrates the tropopause, referred to here as overshooting convection, is capable of lifting tropospheric air well into the stratosphere. In addition to water, these overshoots also transport various chemical species, affecting chemistry and radiation in the stratosphere. It is not currently known, however, how much transport is a result of this mechanism. To better understand overshooting convection, this study aims to characterize the durations of overshooting events. To achieve this, radar data from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) network is composited onto a three-dimensional grid at 5-min intervals. Overshoots are identified by comparing echo-top heights with tropopause estimates derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. These overshoots are linked in space from one analysis time to the next to form tracks. This process is performed for 12 four-day sample windows in the months May–August of 2017–19. Track characteristics such as duration, overshoot area, tropopause-relative altitude, and column-maximum reflectivity are investigated. Positive correlations are found between track duration and other track characteristics. Integrated track volume is found as a product of the overshoot area, depth, and duration, and provides a measure of the potential stratospheric impact of each track. Short-lived tracks are observed to contribute the most total integrated volume when considering track duration, while tracks that overshoot by 2–3 km show the largest contribution when considering overshoot depth. A diurnal cycle is observed, with peak track initiation around 1600–1700 local time. Track-mean duration peaks a few hours earlier, while track-mean area and tropopause-relative height peak a few hours later.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Hydrogen Concept within the United States

The U.S. energy system is evolving as society and technologies change. Renewable electricity generation - especially from wind and solar - is growing rapidly, and alternative energy sources are being developed and implemented across the residential, commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors to take advantage of their cost, security, and health benefits. Systemic changes present numerous challenges to grid resiliency and energy affordability, creating a need for synergistic solutions that satisfy multiple applications while yielding system-wide cost and emissions benefits. One such solution is an integrated hydrogen energy system. This is the focus of H2@Scale - a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiative led by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Hydrogen and Fuel Technologies Office. H2@Scale brings together stakeholders to advance affordable hydrogen production, transport, storage, and utilization in multiple energy sectors. The H2@Scale concept involves hydrogen as an energy intermediate. Hydrogen can be produced from various conventional and renewable energy sources including as a responsive load on the electric grid. Hydrogen has many current applications and many more potential applications, such as energy for transportation - used directly in fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), as a feedstock for synthetic fuels, and to upgrade oil and biomass - feedstock for industry (e.g., for ammonia production, metals refining, and other end uses), heat for industry and buildings, and electricity storage. Owing to its flexibility and fungibility, a hydrogen intermediate could link energy sources that have surplus availability to markets that require energy or chemical feedstocks, benefiting both. This document builds upon a growing body of analyses of hydrogen as an energy intermediate by reporting the results from our initial analysis of the potential impacts of the H2@Scale vision by the mid-21 st century for the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Previous estimates have been based on expert elicitation and focused on hydrogen demands. We build upon them, first, by estimating hydrogen’s serviceable consumption potential for possible hydrogen applications and the technical potential for producing hydrogen from various resources. We define the serviceable consumption potential as the quantity of hydrogen that would be consumed to serve the portion of the market that could be captured without considering economics (i.e., if the price of hydrogen were $0/kg over an extended period); thus, it can be considered an upper bound for the size of the market. We define the technical potential as the resource potential constrained by real-world geography and system performance, but not by economics. We then compare the cumulative serviceable consumption potential with the technical potential of a number of possible sources. Second, we estimate economic potential: the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen. We believe this method provides a deeper understanding than was available in the previous analyses. We develop economic potentials for multiple scenarios across various market and technology-advancement assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical study of a delta planform with multiple jets in ground effect

The flow past a 60-deg delta wing equipped with two thrust-reverser jets near the inboard trailing edge has been analyzed by numerical solution of the 3D thin-layer Navier-Stokes equations. An implicit, partially flux-split, approximately-factored Navier-Stokes solver coupled with a multiple grid embedding scheme has been adapted to this problem. Studies of the impact of numerical parameters (e.g., grid refinement and dissipation levels), and flow-field parameters such as the height of the delta wing above the ground plane and the jet size on the solution, were performed. Results of these numerical studies indicate some challenges in the accurate resolution of complex 3D free shear layers and jets. Nevertheless, flow features such as jet deformation and ground vortex formation observed in experimental flow visualizations are captured. Further, comparisons with experimental data confirm the ability to simulate the loss of wing-borne lift, commonly referred to 'suckdown, as the delta planform flies at slow speeds in close proximity to the ground. Detailed analysis of the numerical results has also given additional insight into the structure of the ground vortex and the mechanisms of lift loss.

Chawla, K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Gravity Waves in a Kilometer‐Scale Run of the IFS to AIRS Satellite Observations and ERA5

Abstract Atmospheric gravity waves (GWs) impact the circulation and variability of the atmosphere. Sub‐grid scale GWs, which are too small to be resolved, are parameterized in weather and climate models. However, some models are now available at resolutions at which these waves become resolved and it is important to test whether these models do this correctly. In this study, a GW resolving run of the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), run with a 1.4 km average grid spacing (TCo7999 resolution), is compared to observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument, on NASA's Aqua satellite, to test how well the model resolves GWs that AIRS can observe. In this analysis, nighttime data are used from the first 10 days of November 2018 over part of Asia and surrounding regions. The IFS run is resampled with AIRS's observational filter using two different methods for comparison. The ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis is also resampled as AIRS, to allow for comparison of how the high resolution IFS run resolves GWs compared to a lower resolution model that uses GW drag parametrizations. Wave properties are found in AIRS and the resampled models using a multi‐dimensional S‐Transform method. Orographic GWs can be seen in similar locations at similar times in all three data sets. However, wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes in the resampled IFS run are found to be significantly lower than in the observations. This could be a result of horizontal and vertical wavelengths in the IFS run being underestimated.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global land use for 2015–2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Abstract Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05° × 0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important thathydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and inter-dependency using a database, and algorithms, to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrated Security-Safety Consequence Study of a Heat Pipe Reactor

This report presents a preliminary demonstration of integrated security/safety consequence modeling to support potential physical security exemption justifications under the new Title 10 Code of Federal Regulations Part 53 licensing pathway, which allows exemptions if sabotage-induced radiological consequences do not exceed 25 rem at the site boundary two hours after release without mitigative actions. A hypothetical heat pipe microreactor subjected to direct sabotage by a 150 lbs. TNT-equivalent high-explosive device was analyzed using a simplified radionuclide release estimate based on DOE-HDBK-3010-94, implemented in the MELCOR severe accident analysis code to model release transport and attenuation through reactor/building compartments, with MELCOR outputs coupled to MACCS to compute offsite doses and the distance-to-threshold metric D 25rem . Six scenarios were evaluated to examine sensitivities to release pathway/building configuration and radionuclide form (vapor versus aerosols with different size distributions). Results show a positive correlation between leak path factor and D 25rem and indicate that reactor building compartmentalization can substantially reduce consequences (a single-story configuration reduced D 25rem by roughly an order of magnitude relative to a cavity-only configuration), while vapor versus aerosol assumptions had limited impact for the modeled two-story case on the spatial grid used.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios

Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05°×0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗