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Dynamic (computer) modelling of the particulate environment: Transformations from the LDEF reference frame to decode geocentric and interplanetary populations

The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) impact signature record and the size frequency distribution of craters and perforations offers a unique record of environmental data referenced conveniently to the geocentric reference frame. Chemical analysis of residues can offer only limited assistance. Hence, flux modeling has been developed to transform both geocentric orbital distributions and geocentrically unbounded interplanetary source distributions. This is applied to the foil and crater penetration records in the Ram (E), Trailing (W), and Space Pointing directions to offer the means of decoding the records. It shows that the mix of the components is size dependent. Parametric forms of the modeling transformations are presented for the orbital and unbounded populations.

Mcdonnell, J. A. M.↗

An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

Lehmann, P.↗

Magnetic field changes associated with a sub-flare and surge

A sub-flare and surge were observed on June 13, 1990, with the Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograph and coaligned H-alpha telescope. This activity occurred at the site of a parasitic polarity near a large, mature sunspot. Analysis of the vector magnetic field showed that while flux emergence and other field changes occurred sporadically throughout a period of four days, the sub-flare and surge only took place after an increase in magnetic shear in the field of the parasitic polarity. This event also provided an example of relaxation of magnetic shear following the flare and surging.

Hagyard, M. J.↗

Implications of ROSAT observations for the local hot bubble

The ROSAT all-sky survey and Guest Observer pointed observations have brought a wealth of high-quality data to the study of the soft X-ray diffuse background. Analysis of the spatial structure of the 1/4 keV flux, including observations of shadows cast by discrete clouds in the interstellar medium, have allowed the separation of the observed flux into foreground and background components supporting a spatially varying local component consistent with previous ideas of the local hot bubble, a highly variable galactic halo component, and an extragalactic background.

Snowden, S. L.↗

Galileo Direction Finding of Jovian Radio Emissions

The Galileo spacecraft, in orbit about Jupiter, has observed distinct spin modulation of plasma wave emissions near the Ganymede (G1 and G2) encounters in the frequency range from about 100 kHz to approximately 6 MHz. Assuming circularly polarized, transverse electromagnetic radiation, we have used the spin modulation of the sweep-frequency receivers of the electric dipole antenna over many spins to estimate the source location in the spin plane of the spacecraft. Hectometric (HOM) and decametric (DAM) emission is observed by Galileo as a general and continuous background with frequent bursts that last tens of minutes and can be separated by minutes or hours. We have analyzed HOM and DAM emissions observed near Jupiter just after the GI and G2 encounters, including two HOM/DAM "arc" signatures observed after the G2 encounter. These latter appear to be low-frequency extensions of DAM arcs, with source regions along either the Io or the Ganymede flux tube. While the uncertainties associated with the data analysis do not allow a precise source location, the HOM/DAM emission observed near the G1 and G2 encounters is consistent with a gyroresonant source region, but it is necessary to require refraction due to the Io torus to understand the results. To explain emission from apparent source regions above a gyroresonant source region, wave refraction from asymmetries in the Io plasma torus that extend along magnetic field lines is postulated. Alternatively, if such torus density asymmetries do not exist, emission with sources above a gyroresonant source region would require another free-energy source such as energetic plasma beams in the presence of density gradients or temperature anisotropies.

Menietti, J. D.↗

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXVI, Part II

Some topics covered: Implications of internal fragmentation on the structure of comets; Atmospheric excitation of mars polar motion; Dunite viscosity dependence on oxygen fugacity; Cross profile and volume analysis of bahram valles on mars; Calculations of the fluxes of 10-250 kV lunar leakage gamma rays; Alluvian fans on mars; Investigating the sources of the apollo 14 high-Al mare basalts; Relationship of coronae, regional plains and rift zones on venus; and Chemical differentiation and internal structure of europa and callisto.

Source record↗

The Violent Early Solar System, as Told by Lunar Sample Geochronology

One of the legacies of the samples collected by the Apollo and Luna missions is the link forged between radiometric ages of rocks and relative ages according to stratigraphic relationships and impact crater size-frequency distributions. Our current understanding of the history of the inner solar system is based on the relative chronology of individual planets, tied to the absolute geochronology of the Moon via these important samples. Samples from these nearside locations reveal a preponderance of impact-disturbed or recrystallized ages between 3.75 and 3.95 billion years. Argon and lead loss (and correlated disturbances in the Rb-Sr system) have been attributed to metamorphism of the lunar crust by an enormous number of impacts in a brief pulse of time, called the Lunar Cataclysm or Late Heavy Bombardment. Subsequent high-precision geochronometric analyses of Apollo samples and lunar highlands meteorites show a wider range of ages, but very few older than 4 Ga. The paucity of ancient impact melt rocks has been interpreted to mean that either that most impact basins formed at this time, or that ejecta from the large, near-side, young basins dominates the Apollo samples. Selenochronology is getting more complicated: new results question meaning of sample ages, crater counts, crater production functions, and the solar system itself. Improved geological mapping of lunar geologic units and boundaries using multiple remote sensing datasets. High-resolution image-based crater counting of discrete geologic units and relating them to location. Improved understanding of the regolith thickness and its global variation (GRAIL). Tying the sampling of impact-melt rocks to the lunar impact flux. Using improved techniques (magnetic fields, diffusion studies, isotopic analysis) on existing samples. New sample return from benchmark craters, particularly SPA, which appears in 2013 Decadal Survey.

Cohen, Barbara↗

Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris Threat Assessment: Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

This report provides results of a Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk assessment of the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle (MSR EEV). The assessment was performed using standard risk assessment methodology illustrated in Figure 1-1. Central to the process is the Bumper risk assessment code (Figure 1-2), which calculates the critical penetration risk based on geometry, shielding configurations and flight parameters. The assessment process begins by building a finite element model (FEM) of the spacecraft, which defines the size and shape of the spacecraft as well as the locations of the various shielding configurations. This model is built using the NX I-deas software package from Siemens PLM Software. The FEM is constructed using triangular and quadrilateral elements that define the outer shell of the spacecraft. Bumper-II uses the model file to determine the geometry of the spacecraft for the analysis. The next step of the process is to identify the ballistic limit characteristics for the various shield types. These ballistic limits define the critical size particle that will penetrate a shield at a given impact angle and impact velocity. When the finite element model is built, each individual element is assigned a property identifier (PID) to act as an index for its shielding properties. Using the ballistic limit equations (BLEs) built into the Bumper-II code, the shield characteristics are defined for each and every PID in the model. The final stage of the analysis is to determine the probability of no penetration (PNP) on the spacecraft. This is done using the micrometeoroid and orbital debris environment definitions that are built into the Bumper-II code. These engineering models take into account orbit inclination, altitude, attitude and analysis date in order to predict an impacting particle flux on the spacecraft. Using the geometry and shielding characteristics previously defined for the spacecraft and combining that information with the environment model calculations, the Bumper-II code calculates a probability of no penetration for the spacecraft.

Christiansen, Eric L.↗

Characterization of the Gaseous Companion k Andromedae B* New Keck and LBTI High-contrast Observations

Context. We previously reported the direct detection of a low mass companion at a projected separation of 55+/-2 astronomical units around the B9 type star kappa Andromedae. The properties of the system (mass ratio, separation) make it a benchmark for the understanding of the formation and evolution of gas giant planets and brown dwarfs on wide-orbits. Aims. We present new angular differential imaging (ADI) images of the system at 2.146 (K(sub s)), 3.776 (L'), 4.052 (NB 4.05) and 4.78 micrometers (M') obtained with Keck/NIRC2 and LBTI/LMIRCam, as well as more accurate near-infrared photometry of the star with the MIMIR instrument. We aim to determine the near-infrared spectral energy distribution (SED) of the companion and use it to characterize the object. Methods. We used analysis methods adapted to ADI to extract the companion flux. We compared the photometry of the object to reference young/old objects and to a set of seven PHOENIX-based atmospheric models of cool objects accounting for the formation of dust. We used evolutionary models to derive mass estimates considering a wide range of plausible initial conditions. Finally, we used dedicated formation models to discuss the possible origin of the companion. Results. We derive a more accurate J = 15.86 +/- 0.21, H = 14.95 +/- 0.13, K(sub s) = 14.32 +/- 0.09 mag for kappa And b. We redetect the companion in all our high contrast observations. We confirm previous contrasts obtained at K(sub s) and L' band. We derive NB 4.05 = 13.0 +/- 0.2 and M' = 13.3 +/- 0.3 mag and estimate Log(base 10)(L/solar luminosity) = −3.76 +/- 0.06. Atmospheric models yield T(sub eff) = 1900(+100/−200) K. They do not set constrains on the surface gravity. "Hot-start" evolutionary models predict masses of 14(+25/−2) Jupiter mass based on the luminosity and temperature estimates, and considering a conservative age range for the system (30(+120/−10) million years). "warm-start" evolutionary tracks constrain the mass to M greater than or equal to 11 Jupiter mass. Conclusions. The mass of kappa Andromedae b mostly falls in the brown-dwarf regime, due to remaining uncertainties in age and mass-luminosity models. According to the formation models, disk instability in a primordial disk could account for the position and a wide range of plausible masses of kappa and b.

spectral energy distribution (SED)↗

Validation of Regional CO2 Concentrations in the ECMWF Real-Time Analysis and Carbon-Tracker Reanalysis with Airborne Observations from ACT-A Field Campaign

Through verifying against hundreds of hours of airborne in-situ measurements from the NASA-sponsored Atmospheric Carbon and Transport – America (ACT-A) field campaign, this study systematically examines the regional uncertainties and biases of the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from two of the state-of-the-art global analysis products, namely the real-time analysis from the European Center (EC) for Medium Range Forecasting and NOAA’s near real-time Carbon Tracker (CT) reanalysis. It is found that both the EC and CT-NRT analyses agree reasonably well with the independent ACT-A flight-level CO2 measurements in the free troposphere but the uncertainties are considerably larger in the boundary layer during both the summer months of 2016 and the winter months of 2017. There are also strong variabilities in accuracy and bias between seasons, and across three different subregions in the United States (Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and South). Overall, the analysis uncertainties of the EC and CT-NRT analyses in terms of root-mean square deviations against airborne data are comparable to each other, both of which are between 1-2 ppm in the free troposphere but can be as large as 10 ppm near the surface, which are grossly consistent with the difference between the two analyses. The current study not only provides systematic uncertainty estimates for both analysis products over North America but also demonstrated that these two independent estimates can be used to approximate the overall regional CO2 analysis uncertainties. Both statistics are important in future studies in quantifying the uncertainties of regional carbon concentration and flux estimates, as well as in assessing the impact of regional transport through more refined regional modeling and analysis systems.

Chen, Hans W.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-30053-DND

The 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of MERRA2 atmospheric reanalysis data and CERES radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth through two pathways. First, numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. Second, in those same episodes, the efficiency that the atmosphere cooled radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Bradley Hegyi↗

Fast Discovery of an Extremely Radio-Faint Millisecond Pulsar from the Fermi-Lat Unassociated Source 3fgl J0318.1+0252

High sensitivity radio searches of unassociated γ-ray sources have proven to be an effective way of finding new pulsars. Using the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST) during its commissioning phase, we have carried out a number of targeted deep searches of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) γ-ray sources. On February 27, 2018 we discovered an isolated millisecond pulsar (MSP), PSR J0318+0253, coincident with the unassociated γ-ray source 3FGL J0318.1+0252. PSR J0318+0253 has a spin period of 5.19 ms, a dispersion measure (DM) of 26 pc cm−3 corresponding to a DM distance of about 1.3 kpc, and a period-averaged flux density of (∼11±2) µJy at L-band (1.05–1.45 GHz). Among all high energy MSPs, PSR J0318+0253 is the faintest ever detected in radio bands, by a factor of at least ∼4 in terms of L-band fluxes. With the aid of the radio ephemeris, an analysis of 9.6 years of Fermi-LAT data revealed that PSR J0318+0253 also displays strong γ-ray pulsations. Follow-up observations carried out by both Arecibo and FAST suggest a likely spectral turn-over around 350 MHz. This is the first result from the collaboration between FAST and the Fermi-LAT teams as well as the first confirmed new MSP discovery by FAST, raising hopes for the detection of many more MSPs. Such discoveries will make a significant contribution to our understanding of the neutron star zoo while potentially contributing to the future detection of gravitational waves, via pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments.

Pei Wang↗

The Impact of Drifting Orbits on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

David Doelling↗

The Orbital Drift Impact on the Monthly Regional TOA Flux Assuming Constant Meteorology

The NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) gridded Single Scanner Footprint (SSF1deg) product provides TOA SW and LW monthly 1° regional all-sky fluxes, which are used to monitor the Earth’s energy balance. The CERES long-term climate data record relies on Terra and Aqua satellite sun-synchronous orbits that are maintained at 10:30 and 1:30 local equator crossing times (LECT), respectively. The Terra and Aqua satellites are expected to drift outside of their respective LECT during mid 2022. Both Terra and Aqua will drift over several years towards sunrise and sunset, respectively, and eventually will be deorbited. The CERES SSF1deg product monthly regional fluxes are based on the well calibrated and stable CERES observed fluxes and are temporally interpolated assuming constant meteorology between measurements to resolve the regional diurnal flux cycle to obtain a daily averaged flux. The drifting orbits may impact the monthly regional TOA flux over regions with systematic diurnal cycles, because the observations will shift in local time. The CERES project would like to determine the maximum Terra and Aqua LECT time shift before the monthly regional fluxes are diurnally impacted and become unreliable for long-term climate monitoring. To determine the impact of the drifting orbits on the SSF1deg monthly regional fluxes,15-minute Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) broadband observed fluxes over the Meteosat geostationary satellite domain (±60° in longitude and latitude) are used as proxy CERES observations. The drifting orbit sampling pattern is achieved by simply incrementing the observation time by steps of 15 minutes from the CERES footprint time. For each 15-minute time interval, the CERES observed fluxes are replaced by the GERB observed fluxes. The-15 minute incremented monthly regional fluxes based on constant meteorology are compared to the reference 10:30 and 1:30 LECT fluxes. Regions with systematic diurnal cycles, include morning maritime stratus, where the clouds dissipate during the morning, and land afternoon convection, where clouds increase in the afternoon will impact the regional flux differences. Based on January and July 2010 GERB data, even a 15-minute LECT change caused regional monthly flux differences that would impact long term regional trend analysis. Results will be shown at the conference.

D R Doelling↗

OGLE-2015-BLG-1649Lb: A Gas Giant Planet around a Low-mass Dwarf

We report the discovery of an exoplanet from the analysis of the gravitational microlensing event OGLE-2015-BLG-1649 that challenges the core accretion model of planet formation and appears to support the disk instability model. The planet/host-star mass ratio is q = 7.2 × 10^(−3) and the projected separation normalized to the angular Einstein radius is s = 0.9. We conducted high-resolution follow-up observations using the Infrared Camera and Spectrograph (IRCS) camera on the Subaru telescope and are able to place an upper limit on the lens flux. From these measurements we are able to exclude all host stars greater than or equal in mass to a G-type dwarf. We conducted a Bayesian analysis with these new flux constraints included as priors resulting in estimates of the masses of the host star and planet. These are ML = 0.34 ± 0.19 M⊙ and M(p)=2.5 (+1.5,-1.4) M(Jup), respectively. The distance to the system is D(L)=4.23 (+1.51, -1.64) kpc. The projected star–planet separation is a(┴)=2.07 (+0.65,-0.77) au. The estimated relative lens-source proper motion, ~7.1 mas/yr, is fairly high and thus the lens can be better constrained if additional follow-up observations are conducted several years after the event.

M. Nagakane↗

Cassini Observations of Plasmoid Structure and Dynamics: Implications for the Role of Magnetic Reconnection in Magnetospheric Circulation at Saturn

We survey the Cassini magnetometer data during the deep tail orbits in 2006, and find 34 direct encounters with plasmoids. They occur as single, isolated events but also in groups of two or more plasmoids as is frequently observed at Earth . We show a case study example of three such plasmoids over three hours, where we estimate an upper limit of 5.68 GWb of flux closure, and derive a reconnection rate over this interval of 526 kV. We show the results of a superposed epoch analysis of al1 34 plasmoids indicating that, on average, plasmoids at Saturn are approix.8 min in duration and they tend toward a loop-like, as opposed to flux rope-like topology, with little or no axial core magnetic field. Our analysis shows that plasmoids at Saturn are followed by an extended interval of the post-plasmoid plasma sheet (PPPS) lasting approx.58 min. The average open magnetic flux disconnected by the continued reconnet:tion following plasmoid formation that creates the PPPS is approx.3 GWb. We calculate expected recurrence rates for plasmoids, and compare these with a derived observational recurrence rate of one plasmoid every approx.2.4 days, explaining the reasons why the spacecraft has not observed as many plasmoids as we predict will be released. We conclude that the Cassini magnetometer measurements require a combination of Vasyliunas-type closed-flux plasma sheet and Dungey-type open-flux lobe reconnection to account for the observed properties of the plasmoids and PPPS in Saturn's magnetotail.

Jackman, C. M.↗

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗