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At least 577 records · Page 32

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The role of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier for electricity sector decarbonization

With countries and economies around the globe increasingly relying on non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE), the need for effective energy storage and international carriers of low-carbon energy has intensified. This study delves into hydrogen's prospective, multifaceted contribution to decarbonizing the electricity sector, with emphasis on its utilization as a scalable technology for long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier. Using Japan as a case study, based on its ambitious national hydrogen strategy and plans to import liquefied hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel source, we employ advanced models encompassing capacity expansion and hourly dispatch. We explore diverse policy scenarios to unravel the timing, quantity, and operational intricacies of hydrogen deployment within a power system. Our findings highlight the essential role of hydrogen in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several weeks and months and reducing the costs of achieving a zero-emission power system. The study recommends prioritizing domestically produced hydrogen, leveraging renewables for cost reduction, and strategically employing imported hydrogen as a risk hedge against potential spikes in battery storage and renewable energy costs. Furthermore, the strategic incorporation of hydrogen mitigates system costs and enhances energy self-sufficiency, informing policy design and investment strategies aligned with the dynamic global energy landscape.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Toward extracting $$\gamma $$ from $$B\rightarrow DK$$ without binning

Abstract $$B^\pm \rightarrow DK^\pm $$ B ± → D K ± transitions are known to provide theoretically clean information about the CKM angle $$\gamma $$ γ , with the most precise available methods exploiting the cascade decay of the neutral D into CP self-conjugate states. Such analyses currently require binning in the D decay Dalitz plot, while a recently proposed method replaces this binning with the truncation of a Fourier series expansion. In this paper, we present a proof of principle of a novel alternative to these two methods, in which no approximations at the level of the data representation are required. In particular, our new strategy makes no assumptions about the amplitude and strong phase variation over the Dalitz plot. This comes at the cost of a degree of ambiguity in the choice of test statistic quantifying the compatibility of the data with a given value of $$\gamma $$ γ , with improved choices of test statistic yielding higher sensitivity. While our current proof-of-principle implementation does not demonstrate optimal sensitivity to $$\gamma $$ γ , its conceptually novel approach opens the door to new strategies for $$\gamma $$ γ extraction. More studies are required to see if these can be competitive with the existing methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Technical Geothermal Roadmap for Indonesia

The technical geothermal roadmapping exercise described by this report is part of the NZW Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia. Indonesia currently has the second largest installed geothermal power generation capacity in the world and has abundant undeveloped resources that allow for continued expansion of its geothermal resource development, which can serve to contribute to the country’s goal of achieving net zero emissions for power generation by 2060. The DOE GeoVision study (2019) highlighted the importance of technical improvements as the key for accelerating the development of geothermal resources in the United States by reducing the costs and risks to make geothermal more competitive, and this also applies to Indonesia. The main objective of the roadmap is to identify and discuss key technical challenges and discuss how implementation of geothermal technology advances could reduce the risks, costs, and time associated with geothermal exploration and development activities and expand the potential resource base to include unconventional resource types, thus accelerating geothermal deployment in Indonesia.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Rig Diagnostic Tools

Rig Diagnostic Tools is a suite of applications designed to allow an operator to monitor the status and health of complex networked systems using a unique interface between Java applications and UNIX scripts. The suite consists of Java applications, C scripts, Vx- Works applications, UNIX utilities, C programs, and configuration files. The UNIX scripts retrieve data from the system and write them to a certain set of files. The Java side monitors these files and presents the data in user-friendly formats for operators to use in making troubleshooting decisions. This design allows for rapid prototyping and expansion of higher-level displays without affecting the basic data-gathering applications. The suite is designed to be extensible, with the ability to add new system components in building block fashion without affecting existing system applications. This allows for monitoring of complex systems for which unplanned shutdown time comes at a prohibitive cost.

Soileau, Kerry M.↗

Reducing Mass of Steel Auto Bodies using Thin Advanced High Strength Steel with Carbon-Fiber Reinforced Epoxy

Diversitak, a company based in Detroit, MI, has developed a proprietary, low specific gravity, carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (CFRE) under U.S. patent number 9,963,58832. Preliminary testing on this new material conducted in collaboration with ArcelorMittal Steel Company proved out the CFRE concept. A thin layer of this CFRE was applied to a stamped sheet of steel with residual stamping oils from a mill, in a time corresponding to automotive processing (e.g., ~15 seconds), and processed following automotive e-coat procedures (phosphating + 175–200°C heating), to complete the curing. No problems with adherence or performance were noted. While the CFRE does add weight to a thin gauge steel panel, it weighs much less than what is displaced by using thicker conventional mild steel gauges. The application of the coating showed a significant increased dent resistance, oil canning resistance, and part stiffness.This current two-year project was designed to mature this new technology to near manufacturing readiness to reduce the weight of a vehicle and lower the cost of weight reduction. The process involves the use of thinner gauge steels than are currently used. The collaborative development team included two industrial manufacturers: Diversitak and ArcelorMittal Steel Company; LightMAT; and two National Laboratories: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The team developed a new manufacturing process to reduce the weight of a vehicle and lower the cost of weight reduction, as well as a better understanding of how to apply the coating so that it will perform to a high standard in-service. The team also performed an in-depth study to determine the long-term durability of the materials manufactured using this technology and well-known automotive industry standard tests.The overall process involved stiffening the thinner gauge steel by applying the CFRE on only one side. To accomplish this goal, the optimal reinforcement fiber length and fiber concentration was first determined. This was followed by measuring the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) in all three directions, so it could be fed into manufacturing models and methods for rapidly and inexpensively applying the coating. This was followed by panel level evaluations of the coating and steel combination, and then by full part demonstration of the technology on door panels. The final step was corrosion testing of the parts.ArcelorMittal characterized the advanced high strength steel (AHSS) (e.g., metallurgy-heat treatment for required AHSS properties as a function of the sheet thickness, state of internal stress) and quantified CFRE adhesion to the steel as a function of sheet preparation (e.g., rolling and stamping).ORNL optimized the fiber length, fiber concentration, and coating thickness for best vehicle function and performance at the least cost. Along with the suppliers, ORNL developed a durable CFRE application process (e.g., gun material, design, robotic dispensing process) and identified the adhesion stability of the CFRE during process holding. An approach to ensure that application/curing timing conforms to conventional assembly line speed and plant cycle times was determined. ORNL also determined the CTE of the material in all three directions and performed material scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analyses.INL characterized the corrosion properties of the steel panels coated with CFRE. The panels were investigated for corrosion resistance and stability as replacement materials used in automotive body panels to reduce mass. The coupons tested at INL were supplied by Diversitak after an optimized CFRE formulation was achieved in the already coated form for corrosion testing.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SUMC fault tolerant computer system

The results of the trade studies are presented. These trades cover: establishing the basic configuration, establishing the CPU/memory configuration, establishing an approach to crosstrapping interfaces, defining the requirements of the redundancy management unit (RMU), establishing a spare plane switching strategy for the fault-tolerant memory (FTM), and identifying the most cost effective way of extending the memory addressing capability beyond the 64 K-bytes (K=1024) of SUMC-II B. The results of the design are compiled in Contract End Item (CEI) Specification for the NASA Standard Spacecraft Computer II (NSSC-II), IBM 7934507. The implementation of the FTM and memory address expansion.

Source record↗

High quality InP-on-Si for solar cell applications

InP on Si solar cells combine the low-cost and high-strength of Si with the high efficiency and radiation tolerance of InP. The main obstacle in the growth of single crystal InP-on-Si is the high residual strain and high dislocation density of the heteroepitaxial InP films. The dislocations result from the large differences in lattice constant and thermal expansion mismatch of InP and Si. Adjusting the size and geometry of the growth area is one possible method of addressing this problem. In this work, we conducted a material quality study of liquid phase epitaxy overgrowth layers on selective area InP grown by a proprietary vapor phase epitaxy technique on Si. The relationship between growth area and dislocation density was quantified using etch pit density measurements. Material quality of the InP on Si improved both with reduced growth area and increased aspect ratio (length/width) of the selective area. Areas with etch pit density as low as 1.6 x 10(exp 4) sq cm were obtained. Assuming dislocation density is an order of magnitude greater than etch pit density, solar cells made with this material could achieve the maximum theoretical efficiency of 23% at AMO. Etch pit density dependence on the orientation of the selective areas on the substrate was also studied.

Shellenbarger, Zane A.↗

Orthorectified High Resolution Multispectral Imagery for Application to Change Detection and Analysis

The project team has outlined several technical objectives which will allow the companies to improve on their current capabilities. These include modifications to the imaging system, enabling it to operate more cost effectively and with greater ease of use, automation of the post-processing software to mosaic and orthorectify the image scenes collected, and the addition of radiometric calibration to greatly aid in the ability to perform accurate change detection. Business objectives include fine tuning of the market plan plus specification of future product requirements, expansion of sales activities (including identification of necessary additional resources required to meet stated revenue objectives), development of a product distribution plan, and implementation of a world wide sales effort.

Benkelman, Cody A.↗

TRMM Realtime Data Production, Transfer, and Future Plans

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, a joint US NASA and Japan NASDA mission, was launched on November 27, 1997 from Tanegashima Island, Japan on a NASDA provided H-II launch vehicle. The TRMM objectives are: to obtain and study multi-year science data sets of tropical and sub- tropical rainfall measurement; to understand how interactions between the sea, air, and land masses produce changes in global rainfall and climate; to help improve modeling of tropical rainfall processes; to test, evaluate, and improve the performance of satellite rainfall estimates measurements and techniques. The routine production and quick distribution of standard products provides an important underpinning to these objectives. The determination of standard TRMM algorithms and the requirements for routine production and distribution fall within the authority of the joint US-Japan Science Team. In April of 1998, the Joint TRMM Science team requested that TRMM data be made available in near real-time to approved international agencies and modelers. This request was an addition to the routine production of the standard TRMM data products. The science team requested that near-realtime products be as small as possible to facilitate their transfer via networks. Indeed, it was determined that only network transfer would be available. This presentation provides an overview of the type of products available from the realtime system and how the TRMM system was developed at the lowest cost in the shortest amount of time. It then describes the real-time data flow. The presentation also summarizes how the science quality of real-time data is maintained. It describes how interested groups can get access to this data and the importance of networks for the future of real-time data expansion. The presentation concludes real-time possibilities and improvements possible as part of the proposed Global Precipitation Mission. High speed network access availability is an important catalyst to real-time data flow during the proposed mission.

Stocker, Erich Franz↗

Extended Finite Element Based Approach in Additive Manufacturing Modeling for Optimizing Highly Complex Manifold in Protonic Ceramic Electrochemical Cells

The objective of this project is to develop a novel numerical approach based on the extended finite element method (XFEM) for modeling moving boundaries of material deposited in additive manufacturing (AM) process with improved accuracy and reduced computational cost. One of the major challenges in simulating AM processes is that the boundaries of the computational domain need to change as material is deposited. Previous approaches have achieved this by activating new finite elements, but this requires a high level of mesh refinement to capture small movement of the boundary. XFEM allows the solution boundary to move independently of the mesh, permitting smooth representation of the evolution of the boundary as material is deposited. As a result, this new method will significantly improve the simulation accuracy while reducing the computational cost compared with existing approaches. Furthermore, this project will bring significant improvements for the design and AM process optimization in an iterative fashion among numerical simuation, parameter optimization, and experimental validation. Specifically, this project will support the protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (PCEC) stack development at INL by providing insights into the density, residual stress, thermal and mechanical properties of the PCEC manifold and interconnect, which is critical in enhancing the system lifetime and reducing the overall cost. Upon the success of proposed development and validation of the proposed approach, simulation will be applied to determine an optimal set of AM process parameters for the PCEC manifold production. This project will consolidate Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s simulation capabilities provided by the MOOSE framework and the Valhalla AM simulation application, with encouraging expansion to emerging PCEC applications and AM technologies at INL and beyond.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

Building a DFT+U machine learning interatomic potential for uranium dioxide

Despite uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) being a widely used nuclear fuel, fuel performance models rely extensively on empirical correlations of material behavior, leveraging the historical operating experience of UO 2 . Mechanistic models that consider an atomistic understanding of the processes governing fuel performance (such as fission gas release and creep) will enable a better description of fuel behavior under non-prototypical conditions such as in new reactor concepts or for modified UO 2 fuel compositions. To this end, molecular dynamics simulation is a powerful tool for rapidly predicting physical properties of proposed fuel candidates. However, the reliability of these simulations depends largely on the accuracy of the atomic forces. Traditionally, these forces are computed using either a classical force field (FF) or density functional theory (DFT). While DFT is relatively accurate, the computational cost is burdensome, especially for f-electron elements, such as actinides. By contrast, classical FFs are computationally efficient but are less accurate. For these reasons, we report a new accurate machine learning interatomic potential (MLIP) for UO 2 that provides high-fidelity reproduction of DFT forces at a similar low cost to classical FFs. We employ an active learning approach that autonomously augments the DFT training data set to iteratively refine the MLIP. To further improve the quality of our predictions, we utilize transfer learning to retrain our MLIP to higher-accuracy DFT+U data. We validate our MLIPs by comparing predicted physical properties (e.g., thermal expansion and elastic properties) with those from existing classical FFs and DFT/DFT+U calculations, as well as with experimental data when available.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Limits to forests-based mitigation in integrated assessment modelling: global potentials and impacts under constraining factors

Forests-based measures such as afforestation/reforestation (A/R) and reducing deforestation (RDF) are considered promising options to mitigate climate change, yet their mitigation potentials are limited by economic and biophysical factors that are largely uncertain. The range of mitigation potential estimates from integrated assessment models raises concerns about the capacity of land systems to provide realistic, cost-effective and permanent land-based mitigation. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to quantify the economic mitigation potential of forests-based measures by simulating a climate policy including a tax on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses. In addition, we assess how constraining unused arable land (UAL) availability, forestland expansion rates, and global bioenergy demand may influence the forests-based mitigation potential by simulating scenarios with alternative combinations of constraints. Results show that the average forests-based mitigation potential in 2020–2050 increases from 738 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 86 Mha in the fully constrained scenario to 1394 MtCO 2 .yr -1 through a forestland increase of 146 Mha when all constraints are relaxed. Regional potentials in terms of A/R and RDF differ strongly between scenarios: unconstrained forest expansion rates mostly increase A/R potentials in northern regions (e.g., +120 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in North America); while unconstrained UAL conversion and low bioenergy demand mostly increase RDF potentials in tropical regions (e.g., +76 and +68 MtCO 2 .yr -1 in Southeast Asia, respectively). This study shows that forests-based mitigation is limited by many factors that constrain the rates of land use change across regions. These factors, often overlooked in modelling exercises, should be carefully addressed for understanding the role of forests in global climate mitigation and defining pledges towards the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Thermal Energy Systems: Modeling Developments and Future Directions (Report 3)

Increasing global energy consumption, increasing population, expansion of all types of produced goods and food, and the climate crisis have necessitated increasing the share of renewable heat in industry, which is vital for both decarbonization. The aim of this work is to evaluate current and prospective renewable heat technologies in stand-alone and hybrid configurations, together with their technical capabilities, performance, and cost. Renewable thermal energy systems (RTES) for buildings and industrial applications have been investigated using techno-economic analysis to determine their potential economic and environmental impacts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Multiple trellis coded modulation (MTCM)

A new trellis coded modulation technique, referred to as multiple trellis coded modulation wherein more than one channel symbol per trellis branch is transmitted and demonstrated. Simple two state trellis codes for symmetric MPSK and AM modulations, which can achieve 3 dB gain over uncoded modulation at very high signal-to-noise ratios without bandwidth expansion and without reduction in information bit rate have been found. The gain of the new trellis codes with respect to previously reported two state trellis codes is between 1 to 2 dB at very high signal-to-noise ratios, depending on the number of bits per hertz transmitted. These gains are achieved with no additional cost in complexity; while indeed additional computations per branch are needed for the multiple trellis coding scheme. This concept can be extended to higher number of states and other type of modulations; i.e., quadrature amplitude modulation.

Divsalar, D.↗

Demonstration of Minimally Machined Honeycomb Silicon Carbide Mirrors

Honeycomb silicon carbide composite mirrors are made from a carbon fiber preform that is molded into a honeycomb shape using a rigid mold. The carbon fiber honeycomb is densified by using polymer infiltration pyrolysis, or through a reaction with liquid silicon. A chemical vapor deposit, or chemical vapor composite (CVC), process is used to deposit a polishable silicon or silicon carbide cladding on the honeycomb structure. Alternatively, the cladding may be replaced by a freestanding, replicated CVC SiC facesheet that is bonded to the honeycomb. The resulting carbon fiber-reinforced silicon carbide honeycomb structure is a ceramic matrix composite material with high stiffness and mechanical strength, high thermal conductivity, and low CTE (coefficient of thermal expansion). This innovation enables rapid, inexpensive manufacturing. The web thickness of the new material is less than 1 millimeter, and core geometries tailored. These parameters are based on precursor carbon-carbon honeycomb material made and patented by Ultracor. It is estimated at the time of this reporting that the HoneySiC(Trademark) will have a net production cost on the order of $38,000 per square meter. This includes an Ultracor raw material cost of about $97,000 per square meter, and a Trex silicon carbide deposition cost of $27,000 per square meter. Even at double this price, HoneySiC would beat NASA's goal of $100,000 per square meter. Cost savings are estimated to be 40 to 100 times that of current mirror technologies. The organic, rich prepreg material has a density of 56 kilograms per cubic meter. A charred carbon-carbon panel (volatile organics burnt off) has a density of 270 kilograms per cubic meter. Therefore, it is estimated that a HoneySiC panel would have a density of no more than 900 kilograms per cubic meter, which is about half that of beryllium and about onethird the density of bulk silicon carbide. It is also estimated that larger mirrors could be produced in a matter of weeks. Each cell is completely uniform, maintaining the shape of the inserted mandrel. Furthermore, the layup creates pressure that insures node bond strength. Each node is a composite laminate using only the inherent resin system to form the bond. This contrasts starkly with the other known method of producing composite honeycomb, in which individual corrugations are formed, cured, and then bonded together in a secondary process. By varying the size of the mandrels within the layup, varying degrees of density can be achieved. Typical sizes are 3/8 and 3/16 in. (approximately 10 and 5 millimeters). Cell sizes up to 1 in. (approximately 25 millimeters) have been manufactured. Similarly, the shape of the core can be altered for a flexible honeycomb structure.

Goodman, William↗

Computational Modeling for Non-equilibrium Shock Tube Flows

Time accurate simulation of non-equilibrium flows inside shock tube facilities presents several challenges from both physical and mathematical aspects. Furthermore, the drastic computational cost makes it non-practical to support real-time experimental test campaign. In this work, we explore other methods for modeling the shock tube prob- lem with the main focus on the post-shock region and the absolute radiation emanating from it. The proposed alternative approach is several orders of magnitude less computa- tionally expansive while still accurate enough with regards to the quantities of interest. Excellent agreement is found with the well-established stagnation-line approach. Comparison with the time-accurate simulation shows good agreement close to the peak values and disagreement of the temperatures relaxation and radiance profiles toward equilibrium, due to shock speed unsteadiness.

Bensassi, Khalil↗