Dynamic Modeling and Optimization of Advanced Energy Systems.
Abstract not provided.
Nicholson, Bethany L.↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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PR100 Final Results
This presentation includes a summary of the final results from the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). Led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the PR100 Study was a two-year effort resulting in stakeholder-driven pathways for Puerto Rico to meet its clean energy goals. For Spanish version see https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/88975.pdf.
100% renewable energy target↗
Presentacion del Webinar Publico sobre Resultados Finales del Estudio PR100
Esta presentacion incluye un resumen de los resultados finales del Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transiciones a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100). Dirigido por el Departamento de Energia y el Laboratorio Nacional de Energias Renovables, y financiado por la Agencia Federal para el Manejo de Emergencias, el estudio PR100 fue un esfuerzo de dos anos que ha resultado en caminos impulsados por las partes interesadas para que Puerto Rico alcance sus metas de energia limpia. For the English version of this presentation, see NREL/PR-6A20-88773 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/88773.pdf).
100% renewable energy target↗
Multiperiod Conceptual Design of Integrated Energy Systems with Market Interaction Surrogate Models
The presentation highlights the market analysis capabilities, both price-taker analysis and the novel market surrogate models approach, applied to optimal design of electricity and hydrogen co-production systems. The research findings were presented at the 2023 AIChE Annual Meeting.
Chen, Xinhe↗
Quantifying Error in Photovoltaic Installation Metadata: Preprint
In this research, we quantify the level of metadata error for a fleet of 2860 photovoltaic (PV) systems, using metadata values provided by fleet owners. Using satellite imagery and time series analysis techniques available in open-source Python packages Panel-Segmentation and PVAnalytics, respectively, we evaluate the accuracy of PV system metadata such as location, azimuth, tilt, and mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. tracking). We find that approximately 75% of provided latitude-longitude coordinates are within 190 meters of the actual solar installation. We were unable to link 7.8% of latitude-longitude coordinates to any solar installation via satellite imagery analysis. We evaluate the level of error in owner-provided mounting configuration (fixed tilt vs. single-axis tracking), finding only 8 systems with an incorrect mounting configuration. When evaluating azimuth and tilt parameters, we find that approximately 64% of the data is correct, with data for 860 systems (approximately 30%) not provided by system owners. To illustrate the importance of having correct solar metadata, we evaluate how incorrect metadata affects solar performance estimates by modeling system AC energy output at ground-truth vs. incorrect latitude-longitude coordinates, mounting configurations, and azimuth-tilt configurations. Energy output estimates can vary significantly if incorrect metadata parameters are used, with incorrect mounting configuration leading to the largest discrepancy with over 20% variation in expected energy output.
azimuth↗
Mathematical Models for Optimization of Grid-Integrated Energy Storage Systems
Energy storage has been proven to yield positive effects on planning, operation and control of electric grids. It has become a crucial task to properly model the energy storage systems (ESS) under the framework of grid optimization on transmission and distribution networks including microgrids. This paper presents a review on mathematical models and test cases of ESSs used for grid optimization studies, where the network constraints of power systems are included. The existing ESS models are mainly classified into two categories – linear and nonlinear models. The two main categories are further divided into several subcategories respectively; such as mixed-integer linear and convex nonlinear sub-categories. Based on the review and discussions, this paper aims at providing suggestions for choosing proper ESS models for specific grid optimization studies considering the chosen power network model.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
SMART Mobility. Multi-Modal Freight Capstone Report
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Systems and Modeling for Accelerated Research in Transportation (SMART) Mobility Consortium is a multiyear, multi-laboratory collaborative, managed by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Program of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Vehicle Technologies Office, dedicated to further understanding the energy implications and opportunities of advanced mobility technologies and services. The first three-year research phase of SMART Mobility occurred from 2017 through 2019, and included five research pillars: Connected and Automated Vehicles, Mobility Decision Science, Multi-Modal Freight, Urban Science, and Advanced Fueling Infrastructure. A sixth research thrust integrated aspects of all five pillars to develop a SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow to evaluate new transportation technologies and services at scale. This report summarizes the work of the Multi-Modal Freight Pillar. The Multi Modal Freight Pillar’s objective is to assess the effectiveness of emerging freight movement technologies and understand the impacts of the growing trends in consumer spending and e-commerce on parcel movement considering mobility, energy, and productivity. For information about the other Pillars and about the SMART Mobility Modeling Workflow, please refer to the relevant pillar’s Capstone Report.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
1.2.2.405 HydroWIRES Topic D1: Capacity Expansion Model (CEM) Enhancements
Long-term grid planning tools have difficulty representing detailed hydropower operating characteristics, which depend not only on technological specifications but also on water management practices and regulations. As a result, the value of hydropower is incompletely characterized, and the potential role of hydropower in the performance and resiliency of the future electric grid is not fully understood. This work will fill that gap by developing new ways to represent hydropower resource, technology, and operational characteristics in electric sector capacity expansion models and implementing them in the open-source version of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. ReEDS is a well-established national scale grid planning tool used since 2003 by the U.S. Department of Energy and others to explore the evolution of the U.S. electric sector. Improvements will include a comprehensive national resource assessment for pumped storage hydropower and methods for modeling multiple hydropower technology categories characterized by technical, regulatory, and economic characteristics. The project will provide guiding principles and strategies for improving hydropower modeling in capacity expansion models and deliver a first-of-its kind versatile PSH dataset. All data, code, and methods will be publicly available, allowing the industry to better identify the value of hydropower in the future electricity system and make more informed planning decisions.
capacity expansion↗
The Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox–PSTess (V1.0)
This document describes the Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox for MATLAB, abbreviated as PSTess. This computing package is a fork of the Power Systems Toolbox (PST). PST was originally developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and later upgraded by Dr. Graham Rogers at Cherry Tree Scientific Software. While PSTess shares a common lineage with PST Version 3.0, it is a substantially different application. This document supplements the main PST manual by describing the features and models that are unique to PSTess. As the name implies, the main distinguishing characteristic of PSTess is its ability to model inverter-based energy storage systems (ESS). The model that enables this is called ess.m , and it serves the dual role of representing ESS operational constraints and the generator/converter interface. As in the WECC REGC_A model, the generator/converter interface is modeled as a controllable current source with the ability to modulate both real and reactive current. The model ess.m permits four-quadrant modulation, which allows it to represent a wide variety of inverter-based resources beyond energy storage when paired with an appropriate supplemental control model. Examples include utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants, Type 4 wind plants, and static synchronous compensators (STATCOM). This capability is especially useful for modeling hybrid plants that combine energy storage with renewable resources or FACTS devices.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Renewable Energy Potential Model: Priority Geothermal Leasing Areas ReEDs Results
This dataset contains the results of a study conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to identify potential future priority geothermal leasing areas on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and United States Forest Service (USFS) lands. The analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to evaluate geothermal resource potential under different scenarios of resource depth and technology combinations through the year 2050. The study considers geothermal resource potential, natural resource conflicts, and transmission access to categorize areas into near, mid, and far deployment priorities. The dataset includes outputs from the ReEDS model, such as geothermal capacity, generation, system costs, and emissions under various economic and technical scenarios. Favorability site data with geographic coordinates and site-specific attributes (e.g., resource favorability, land type) are also provided. Supporting resources include a technical report detailing methodologies and assumptions, along with a link to the ReEDS model GitHub repository, which requires GAMS and Python software for execution.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Extending a land-surface model with <i>Sphagnum</i> moss to simulate responses of a northern temperate bog to whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO<sub>2</sub>
Abstract. Mosses need to be incorporated into Earth system models to better simulate peatland functional dynamics under the changing environment. Sphagnum mosses are strong determinants of nutrient, carbon, and water cycling in peatland ecosystems. However, most land-surface models do not include Sphagnum or other mosses as represented plant functional types (PFTs), thereby limiting predictive assessment of peatland responses to environmental change. In this study, we introduce a moss PFT into the land model component (ELM) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing water content dynamics and nonvascular photosynthetic processes for moss. The model was parameterized and independently evaluated against observations from an ombrotrophic forested bog as part of the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) project. The inclusion of a Sphagnum PFT with some Sphagnum-specific processes in ELM allows it to capture the observed seasonal dynamics of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP) albeit with an underestimate of peak GPP. The model simulated a reasonable annual net primary production (NPP) for moss but with less interannual variation than observed, and it reproduced aboveground biomass for tree PFTs and stem biomass for shrubs. Different species showed highly variable warming responses under both ambient and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and elevated CO2 altered the warming response direction for the peatland ecosystem. Microtopography is critical: Sphagnum mosses on hummocks and hollows were simulated to show opposite warming responses (NPP decreasing with warming on hummocks but increasing in hollows), and hummock Sphagnum was modeled to have a strong dependence on water table height. The inclusion of this new moss PFT in global ELM simulations may provide a useful foundation for the investigation of northern peatland carbon exchange, enhancing the predictive capacity of carbon dynamics across the regional and global scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach for Effective Decision Support of Modern Energy Systems Depicted with Clean Hydrogen Production
A holistic approach to decision-making in modern energy systems is vital due to their increase in complexity and interconnectedness. However, decision makers often rely on narrowly-focused strategies, such as economic assessments, for energy system strategy selection. The approach in this paper helps considers various factors such as economic viability, technological feasibility, environmental impact, and social acceptance. By integrating these diverse elements, decision makers can identify more economically feasible, sustainable, and resilient energy strategies. While existing focused approaches are valuable since they provide clear metrics of a potential solution (e.g., an economic measure of profitability), they do not offer the much needed system-as-a-whole understanding. This lack of understanding often leads to selecting suboptimal or unfeasible solutions, which is often discovered much later in the process when a change may not be possible. This paper presents a novel evaluation framework to support holistic decision-making in energy systems. The framework is based on a systems thinking approach, applied through systems engineering principles and model-based systems engineering tools, coupled with a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The systems engineering approach guides the development of feasible solutions for novel energy systems, and the multicriteria decision analysis is used for a systematic evaluation of available strategies and objective selection of the best solution. The proposed framework enables holistic, multidisciplinary, and objective evaluations of solutions and strategies for energy systems, clearly demonstrates the pros and cons of available options, and supports knowledge collection and retention to be used for a different scenario or context. The framework is demonstrated in case study evaluation solutions for a novel energy system of clean hydrogen generation.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Enhancing Photosynthesis Simulation Performance in ESMs with Machine Learning-Assisted Solvers
When simulating vegetation dynamics, photosynthesis accounts for a large fraction of the computational cost in most Earth System Models (ESMs). This is largely since photosynthesis is represented as a system of nonlinear equations, and the solution requires the use of an initial guess followed by many iterations of the numerical solver to obtain a solution. We use machine learning (ML) to replicate the response surface of the model’s numerical solver to improve the choice of initial guess, therefore requiring fewer iterations to obtain a final solution. We implemented this test on the leaf-level calculations as well as at the canopy scale, and for both we observed fewer iterations of the photosynthesis solver when a ML-based initial guess was implemented. The model tested here is the Energy Exascale Earth System Model - Land Model (ELM). The ML-based algorithms used here are trained on simulations from the model itself and used only to improve the initial guess for the solver; therefore, the model maintains its own set of physics to obtain the final solution. This work shows novel ways to utilize ML-based methods to improve the performance of numerical solvers in ESMs.
Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗
High-Resolution Meteorology with Climate Change Impacts from Global Climate Model Data Using Generative Machine Learning
As renewable energy generation increases, the impacts of weather and climate on energy generation and demand become critical to the reliability of the energy system. However, these impacts are often overlooked. Global climate models (GCMs) can be used to understand possible changes to our climate, but their coarse resolution makes them difficult to use in energy system modelling. Here we present open-source generative machine learning methods that produce meteorological data at a nominal spatial resolution of 4 km at an hourly frequency based on inputs from 100 km daily-average GCM data. These methods run 40 times faster than traditional downscaling methods and produce data that have high-resolution spatial and temporal attributes similar to historical datasets. We demonstrate that these methods can be used to downscale projected changes in wind, solar and temperature variables across multiple GCMs including projections for more frequent low-wind and high-temperature events in the Eastern United States.
climate change↗
A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology
Abstract. Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A Pattern-Recognition-Based Ensemble Data Imputation Framework for Sensors from Building Energy Systems
Building operation data are important for monitoring, analysis, modeling, and control of building energy systems. However, missing data is one of the major data quality issues, making data imputation techniques become increasingly important. There are two key research gaps for missing sensor data imputation in buildings: the lack of customized and automated imputation methodology, and the difficulty of the validation of data imputation methods. In this paper, a framework is developed to address these two gaps. First, a validation data generation module is developed based on pattern recognition to create a validation dataset to quantify the performance of data imputation methods. Second, a pool of data imputation methods is tested under the validation dataset to find an optimal single imputation method for each sensor, which is termed as an ensemble method. The method can reflect the specific mechanism and randomness of missing data from each sensor. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated by 18 sensors from a real campus building. The overall accuracy of data imputation for those sensors improves by 18.2% on average compared with the best single data imputation method.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Vertically Resolved Analysis of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Highlights the Role of Convective Transport of Moist Static Energy
We simulate the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) over an aquaplanet with uniform surface temperature using the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-MMF). The model produces MJO-like features that have a similar spatial structure and propagation behavior to the observed MJO. To explore the processes involved in the propagation and maintenance of these MJO-like features, we perform a vertically resolved moist static energy (MSE) analysis for the MJO (Yao et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-20-0254.1). Unlike the column-integrated MSE analysis, our method emphasizes the local production of MSE variance and quantifies how individual physical processes amplify and propagate the MJO's characteristic vertical structure. We find that radiation, convection, and boundary layer (BL) processes all contribute to maintaining the MJO, balanced by the large-scale MSE transport. Furthermore, large-scale dynamics, convection, and BL processes all contribute to the propagation of the MJO, while radiation slows the propagation. Additionally, we perform mechanism-denial experiments to examine the role of radiation and associated feedbacks in simulating the MJO. We find that the MJO can still self-emerge and maintain its characteristic structures without radiative feedbacks. This study highlights the role of convective MSE transport in the MJO dynamics, which was overlooked in the column-integrated MSE analysis.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Importance of Weather and Climate to Energy Systems: A Workshop on Next Generation Challenges in Energy–Climate Modeling
More than 80 international participants, representing weather, climate, and energy systems research, joined two 4-hour remote sessions to highlight and prioritize ongoing and future challenges in energy-climate modelling. The workshop had two primary goals: to build a deeper engagement across the “energy” and “climate” research communities, and to identify and begin to address the scientific challenges associated with modelling climate risk in energy systems.
17 WIND ENERGY↗