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At least 577 records · Page 32

Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Finally, our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Automatic building energy model development and debugging using large language models agentic workflow

Building energy modeling (BEM) is a complex process that demands significant time and expertise, limiting its broader application in building design and operations. While Large Language Models (LLMs) agentic workflow have facilitated complex engineering processes, their application in BEM has not been specifically explored. This paper investigates the feasibility of automating BEM using LLM agentic workflow. Here, we developed a generic LLM-planning-based workflow that takes a building description as input and generates an error-free EnergyPlus building energy model. Our robust workflow includes four core agents: 1) Building Description Pre-Processing, 2) IDF Object Information Extraction, 3) Single IDF Object Generator Suite, and 4) IDF Debugging Agent. These agents divide the complex tasks into manageable sub-steps, enabling LLMs to generate accurate and reliable results at each stage. The case study demonstrates the successful translation of a building description into an error-free EnergyPlus model for the iUnit modular building at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The effectiveness of our workflow surpasses: 1) naive prompt engineering, 2) other LLM-based workflows, and 3) manual modeling, in terms of accuracy, reliability, and time efficiency. The paper concludes with a discussion on the interplay between foundational models and LLM agent planning design, advocating for the use of fine-tuned, specialized models to advance this field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

HFBTHO-AD: Differentiation of a nuclear energy density functional code

The HFBTHO code implements a nuclear energy density functional solver to model the structure of atomic nuclei. HFBTHO has previously been used to calibrate energy functionals and perform sensitivity analysis by using derivative-free methods. To enable derivative-based optimization and uncertainty quantification approaches, we must compute the derivatives of HFBTHO outputs with respect to the parameters of the energy functional, which are a subset of all input parameters of the code. Here, we use the algorithmic/automatic differentiation (AD) tool Tapenade to differentiate HFBTHO. We compare the derivatives obtained using AD against finite-difference approximation and examine the performance of the derivative computation.

Algorithmic differentiation↗

Towards grounding nuclear physics in QCD

Exascale computing could soon enable a predictive theory of nuclear structure and reactions rooted in the Standard Model, with quantifiable and systematically improvable uncertainties. Such a predictive theory will help exploit experiments that use nucleons and nuclei as laboratories for testing the Standard Model and its limitations. Examples include direct dark matter detection, neutrinoless double beta decay, and searches for permanent electric dipole moments of the neutron and atoms. It will also help connect QCD to the properties of cold neutron stars and hot supernova cores. We discuss how a quantitative bridge between QCD and the properties of nuclei and nuclear matter will require a synthesis of lattice QCD (especially as applied to two- and three- nucleon interactions), effective field theory, and ab initio methods for solving the nuclear many-body problem. While there are significant challenges that must be addressed in developing this triad of theoretical tools, the rapid advance of computing is accelerating progress. In particular, we focus this review on the anticipated advances from lattice QCD and how these advances will impact few-body effective theories of nuclear physics by providing critical input, such as constraints on unknown low-energy constants of the effective (field) theories. We also review particular challenges that must be overcome for the successful application of lattice QCD for low-energy nuclear physics. We describe progress in developing few-body effective (field) theories of nuclear physics, with an emphasis on HOBET, a non-relativistic effective theory of nuclear physics, which is less common in the literature. We use the examples of neutrinoless double beta decay and the nuclear-matter equation of state to illustrate how the coupling of lattice QCD to effective theory might impact our understanding of symmetries and exotic astrophysical environments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Designing Stress-Adaptive Dense Suspensions Using Dynamic Covalent Chemistry

The non-Newtonian behaviors of dense suspensions are central to their use in technological and industrial applications and arise from a network of particle–particle contacts that dynamically adapt to imposed shear. Reported herein are studies aimed at exploring how dynamic covalent chemistry between particles and the polymeric solvent can be used to tailor such stress-adaptive contact networks, leading to their unusual rheological behaviors. Specifically, a room temperature dynamic thia-Michael bond is employed to rationally tune the equilibrium constant (K eq ) of the polymeric solvent to the particle interface. It is demonstrated that low Keq leads to shear thinning, while high K eq produces antithixotropy, a rare phenomenon where the viscosity increases with shearing time. It is proposed that an increase in K eq increases the polymer graft density at the particle surface and that antithixotropy primarily arises from partial debonding of the polymeric graft/solvent from the particle surface and the formation of polymer bridges between particles. Thus, the implementation of dynamic covalent chemistry provides a new molecular handle with which to tailor the macroscopic rheology of suspensions by introducing programmable time dependence. These studies open the door to energy-absorbing materials that not only sense mechanical inputs and adjust their dissipation as a function of time or shear rate but also can switch between these two modalities on demand.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

First-ever deployment of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider: a parasitic test with 200 GeV p p collisions at RHIC.

We describe the testing of a prototype SiPM-on-tile iron-scintillator calorimeter at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) during its 200 GeV p p run in 2024. The prototype, measuring 20 × 20 cm 2 and 24 radiation lengths in depth, was positioned in the STAR experimental hall, approximately 8 m from the interaction point and 65 cm from the beam line, covering a pseudorapidity range of about 3.1 < η < 3.4. By using the dark current of a reference SiPM as a radiation monitor, we estimate that the prototype was exposed to a fluence of about 10 10 1-MeV n eq /cm 2 . Channel-by-channel calibration was performed in a data-driven way with the signature from minimum-ionizing particles during beam-on conditions. AGeant4 detector simulation, with inputs from thePythia8 event generator, describes measurements of energy spectra and hit multiplicities reasonably well. These results mark the first deployment, commissioning, calibration, and long-term operation of a SiPM-on-tile calorimeter in a collider environment. This experimental campaign will guide detector designs and operational strategies for the ePIC detector at the future EIC, as well as other applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Microscopic calculation of fission product yields with particle-number projection

Fission fragments' charge and mass distribution is an important input to applications ranging from basic science to energy production or nuclear nonproliferation. In simulations of nucleosynthesis or calculations of superheavy elements, these quantities must be computed from models, as they are needed in nuclei where no experimental information is available. Until now, standard techniques to estimate these distributions were not capable of accounting for fine-structure effects, such as the odd-even staggering of the charge distributions. In this work, we combine a fully microscopic collective model of fission dynamics with a recent extension of the particle number projection formalism to provide the highest-fidelity prediction of the primary fission fragment distributions for the neutron-induced fission of 235 U and 239 Pu. Here, we show that particle-number projection is an essential ingredient to reproduce odd-even staggering in the charge yields and benchmark the performance of various empirical probability laws that could simulate its effect. This new approach also enables for the first time the realistic determination of two-dimensional isotopic yields within nuclear density functional theory.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

QC-GN2OMS2

The QC-GN2OMS2 neural network was designed to predict mass spectra better than currently available approaches. Fundamentally the neural net is designed to input the structure of a molecule and collision energy value then output a spectra datafile for the end user. This software is able to make predictions orders of magnitude faster (milliseconds) than QC methods and with 50-60% greater accuracy than rules approaches.

Overstreet, Richard↗

Optimizing spectral phase transfer in four-wave mixing with gas-filled capillaries

Four-wave mixing (FWM) in gas-filled hollow-core capillaries, a nonlinear optical process that mixes signal and pump photon frequencies to generate idler frequency photons, offers a method for precise spectral phase transfer from signal to idler at ultrashort timescales and extreme powers. However, this regime is challenged by competing linear and nonlinear dynamics, leading to significant trade-offs between spectral phase transfer and conversion efficiency. Our computational investigation focuses on the upconversion of femtosecond pulses from the infrared (IR) to the ultraviolet (UV), a range notoriously difficult to manipulate. We explore an intermediate energy regime that strikes an optimal balance between FWM-mediated phase-transfer fidelity and nonlinear conversion efficiency. By adjusting the energy ratios and spectral phase profiles of the input signal, we achieve conversion efficiencies of approximately 5-15% while maintaining an effective quasi-linear spectral phase transfer. These findings will contribute to establishing first-principles and scaling laws essential for applications such as high-precision imaging, spectroscopy, quantum transduction, and distributed entangled interconnects, facilitating advanced control of ultrafast photonic and electronic wavepackets in quantum materials with unprecedented spatial and temporal precision.

Zhang, Hao↗

Performance Test Code for Determining and Reporting Annual Heat Rate and CO2 for Coal Fueled EGUs

This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DEFE0031933. The US Department of Energy (DOE) has retained the services of ASME Standards Technology LLC (ASME ST-LLC) to develop a standardized test method and calculation protocol for determining and reporting annual/long-term heat rate for coal-fueled plants electricity generating units. ASME ST-LLC has retained the services of McHale & Associates, Inc. and Licata Energy & Environmental Consultants, Inc. to provide the technical input to this study. This code applies to hydrocarbon fueled Rankine cycle power generating facilities of any size. It is intended to be used for the determination of continuous power output and heat rate of a generating facility in its operating load cycle and in its operational lineup during the reporting period.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Direct Air Capture of CO 2 and Delivery to Photobioreactors for Algal Biofuel Production (Final Report)

A mobile DAC system was designed and constructed to pair with photobioreactors growing algae for biofuel production. The DAC system was designed as a versatile research system, rather than a compact production unit. The system was constructed and mounted on a mobile skid to facilitate transportation to the algae production site. Within the DAC system, CO 2 was captured using amine-loaded monoliths that allow for high CO 2 uptake with low pressure drop. The CO 2 is collected using a Global Thermostat patented temperature/vacuum swing adsorption (TVSA) process. Amine sorbents and process conditions were optimized to produce 10 to >20 g CO 2 .h-1. The stability of the amine sorbents was also studied, with sorbent modifications made to improve stability to degradation by oxidation. An Algenol-developed Spirulina strain (Arthrospira platensis AB2293) was selected as the production cyanobacterial strain. AB2293 cultured was inoculum for outdoor production following PBR installation by Algenol. The PBR system was composed of three independent PBRs, with each PBR composed of four hanging bags internally recirculated by a liquid turnover pump. The PBRs were operated outdoors in Atlanta, GA, and integrated with the DAC system. Algae were grown with similar productivity using DAC-CO 2 as algae grown using pure CO 2 obtained commercially (Airgas). Throughout the experimental duration, no discoloration was observed, and cellular morphology was consistent between the two experimental treatments. An LCA including lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, full life cycle inventory of the Algenol system and the DAC system and integrated DAC+PBR system was developed. Lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for capture of carbon dioxide using input from Global Thermostat and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Three scenarios for energy provision were evaluated: a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the electricity requirement, a natural gas combined heat and power system sized to meet the process heat requirements, and a system without on-site power that procures the electricity from the grid. In all three cases, as expected, the major contributor to the emissions is the energy consumption associated with the desorption step of the DAC process. The LCA quantified the reduced potential energy and greenhouse gas emissions of heat and mass integration of DAC and Algenol compared to unintegrated DAC and Algenol systems. A life cycle assessment of the role of sorbent productivity and lifetime was also developed. The development of more robust, oxidation resistant DAC sorbents may enable small reductions in energy requirements and in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. NREL performed techno-economic analysis (TEA) to identify the integration scenario most likely to achieve a 15% cost reduction target versus the baseline. Heat and mass integration of DAC and the PBR is critical to minimizing the MFSP. The baseline case utilizes no heat and mass integration, and the DAC system provides 100% of the CO 2 required by the photobioreactors (20 tonnes/hr), operating for 12 hours/day capturing 40 tonnes CO 2 /operating hour. The minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of ethanol calculated from the baseline case was $10.68/gal ethanol. This corresponds with a targeted MFSP of $9.07/gal ethanol (or 15% reduction). This target was achieved by integration Option 2a with the greatest cost reduction of 17.8% (or $8.78/gal) and integration Option 2b with a cost reduction of 16.4% (or $8.93/gal). Reductions in MFSP are attributed to two primary process considerations: (a) CO 2 storage at night reduces the capital expenses associated with DAC (i.e., increasing on-stream time); and (b) distributed DAC scenarios (DAC-PBR integration Options 2a and 2b) make use of boiler and DAC CHP flue gas CO 2 (free). Direct air capture on-stream time was one of the largest contributors to MFSP reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Supplement to M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0

Measurement and verification (M&V) are key to determining and confirming the continued operation of, and savings associated with, performance-based contracts. The Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) updates these guidelines to reflect the evolution of M&V to incorporate industry best practices and ensure that savings from these performance-based projects are properly planned, communicated, and realized. FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Federal Energy Projects Version 3.0 in 2008. This document was developed with input from industry-government working groups, previous M&V guideline authors, and national laboratory subject matter experts. The document provided the methods and guidelines, with a focus on federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). When FEMP released M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Performance-Based Contracts Version 4.0 in 2015, FEMP expanded the intended audience to include anyone (energy managers, procurement officers, and contractors) involved in implementing performance-based contracts. The streamlined M&V Guidelines Version 4.0 provided the procedures and guidelines needed to quantify savings resulting from installing energy-efficient equipment, water conservation, improved operation and maintenance (O&M), renewable energy, and cogeneration projects with a performance-based contract; however, it removed some of the associated details on topics such as developing regression models and sampling plans. The details and information provided in M&V Guidelines v. 3.0 are still pertinent to M&V for performance-based contracts. The objective is to keep FEMP M&V version 4.0 condensed, providing the reference document for specifying M&V methods and procedures and a resource for developing project-specific M&V plans; this supplement provides additional details. The content of this supplement has been updated to include pertinent revisions between M&V version 3.0 and M&V version 4.0 by providing details and updating the content to ensure relevancy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions analysis of battery-grade lithium production in Finland

Various countries are undertaking initiatives to domestically produce battery-related critical materials. Within Finland, Keliber Technology Oy is developing capabilities for battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) production from spodumene ores. A detailed life-cycle assessment (LCA) of this pathway is conducted to determine its life-cycle GHG impacts using Argonne's R&D GREET (Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model. The analysis shows life-cycle GHG emissions of similar to 9.2 kg CO 2-eq /kg LHM, dominated by contributions from three energy sources - diesel, natural gas, and electricity - and two material inputs - lime (CaO) and soda ash (Na 2 CO 3 ). Sensitivity analyses highlight the potential to reduce these impacts using low-carbon electricity, sequestration of process CO 2 emissions generated during CaO and Na 2 CO 3 production, and bio-based energy for LHM production (by similar to 15 % each). A comparative analysis shows lower impacts for Keliber's LHM than for existing LHM production from Australian spodumene ores processed in China (by similar to 40 %).

CCS↗

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predictive model for real-time energy disaggregation using long short-term memory

To provide affordable energy-saving solutions for the small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), we propose a unified framework for generating predictive models that support real-time disaggregation of power consumption from combined inputs, enabling automatic machine state identification simultaneously for joint analysis of energy usage patterns. Further, the proposed framework transforms raw power consumption into a time series with look-back and bootstrap capabilities for historical pattern detection, while a learning architecture utilizes the stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) layers as encoders for embedding generation with sequential awareness. Experimental results demonstrate 93.65% minimum accuracy in ideal case of real-time energy usage and machine state prediction.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Characterizing and Modeling the Influence of Geometry on the Performance of Superconducting Nanowire Cryotrons

The scaling of superconducting nanowire detectors to larger arrays is often limited by room-temperature-readout cabling. Cryogenic integrated circuits constructed from nanowire cryotrons, or nanocryotrons, can address this limitation by performing signal processing on chip. In this study, we characterize key performance metrics of the nanocryotron to elucidate its potential as a logical element in cryogenic integrated circuits and develop an electro-thermal model to connect material parameters with device performance. We find that the performance of the nanocryotron depends on the device geometry, and trade-offs are associated with optimizing the gain, jitter, and energy dissipation. Here, we demonstrate that nanocryotrons fabricated on niobium nitride can achieve a grey zone less than 210 nA wide for a 5 ns long input pulse corresponding to a maximum achievable gain of 48 dB, an energy dissipation of less than 20 aJ per operation, and a jitter of less than 60 ps.

Superconductor↗

Toward Human-Centric Transportation and Energy Metrics: Influence of Mode, Vehicle Occupancy, Trip Distance, and Fuel Economy

Traditional metrics measuring transportation and energy outcomes can be augmented to better represent impacts on people's lives and systems-level performance. In this context, this study introduces two novel metrics: road capacity (as number of people traveling and accessing services) and energy intensity (as energy use for people traveling and accessing services). Current national-level distributions of available data in the United States for factors contributing to the two new integrated metrics are used as context to evaluate potential outcomes. These factors include vehicle occupancy, mode share, fuel economy, and trip distance. Variations in input values provide insights on how these factors shape efficiencies in road capacity and energy intensity. Parametric sensitivity analysis indicates that the impact of each input depends upon the metric being evaluated. For the human-centered road capacity mobility metric, increasing vehicle occupancy has the largest effect &ndash; twice that of increasing mode share for bike, walk, and transit. For the energy intensity mobility metric, the effect of improving fuel economy is the largest. However, when the focus is on accessibility (instead of mobility), for both metrics the effect of lowering average trip distance is the largest. Additionally, a novel interactive tool to visualize the results for various parameter combinations makes the metrics practitioner ready. The findings suggest that the diffusion of new human-centric metrics that benchmark outcomes associated with road capacity and energy may be significant in motivating new sustainable transportation investments and efficient utilization of infrastructure, mobility assets, and services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Measurement of the U 235 ( n , f ) prompt fission neutron spectrum from 10 keV to 10 MeV induced by neutrons of energy from 1 MeV to 20 MeV

The characterization of fission-driven nuclear systems primarily relies on calculations of neutron-induced chain reactions, and these calculations require evaluated nuclear data as input. Calculation accuracy heavily depends on input nuclear data evaluation accuracy, and thus high precision on the experimental input to the nuclear data evaluation is essential for fundamental quantities like the energy spectrum of neutrons emitted from neutron-induced fission (i.e., the prompt fission neutron spectrum, PFNS). Despite decades of measurement efforts, prior to the measurements described in this work there were only three literature data sets for the 235 U(n,f) PFNS at incident neutron energies above 1.0 MeV considered reliable for inclusion in nuclear data evaluations and no reliable data sets above 3.0 MeV incident neutron energy. In this work we report on new measurements of the 235 U(n,f) PFNS spanning a grid of 1.0–20.0 MeV in incident neutron energy and 0.01–10.0 MeV in outgoing (PFNS) neutron energy. These measurements were carried out at the Weapons Neutron Research facility at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center and used a multifoil parallel-plate avalanche counter target with both a Li-glass and a liquid scintillator detector array in separate experiments to span the quoted outgoing neutron energy ranges. The PFNS results are shown in terms of the energy spectra themselves as well as the average PFNS energy $(\langle{E}\rangle)$ and ratios of $\langle{E}\rangle$ at forward and backward angles. Here, the results are compared with literature data and selected nuclear data evaluations. Generally, the data agree with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation below 5.0-MeV incident neutron energy and more closely with the JEFF-3.3 evaluation above 5.0 MeV, though no evaluations considered for comparison in this work agree with the data across all of the incident and outgoing neutron energies shown, especially in regions where the third-chance fission process becomes available. Additionally, we show a ratio of the present PFNS results for 235 U(n, f) with a recent and highly correlated experiment to measure the 239 Pu(n, f) PFNS at the same experimental facility and with nearly identical equipment and analysis procedures. Many observations reported in this work are the first of their kind and represent significant advancements for knowledge of the 235 U(n, f) PFNS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗