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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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563 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Abstract Income distributions are a growing area of interest in the examination of equity impacts brought on by climate change and its responses. Such impacts are especially important at subnational levels, but projections of income distributions at these levels are scarce. Here, we project U.S. state-level income distributions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply a non-parametric approach, specifically a recently developed principal components algorithm to generate net income distributions for deciles across 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. We produce these projections to 2100 for three SSP scenarios in combination with varying projections of GDP per capita to represent a wide range of possible futures and uncertainties. In the generation of these scenarios, we also generated tax adjusted historical deciles by U.S. states, which we used for validating model performance. Our method thus produces income distributions by decile for each state, reflecting the variability in state income, population, and tax regimes. Our net income projections by decile can be used in both emissions- and impact-related research to understand distributional effects at various income levels and identify economically vulnerable populations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Status and Ambitions of the US Heavy Element Program

The aim of this whitepaper is to highlight the current capabilities and priorities of the US Heavy Element community and to provide the framework for a coordinated advancement of nuclear science from these studies. This is an organized effort to reflect on what has been achieved in the field given the recommendations and initiatives of the 2015 NSAC Long Range Plan, and on what can be realized in the next decade given current and possibly expanded investments. Current investments have positioned the US community to be among the world leaders in studies of the nuclear and chemical properties of the heaviest elements. These include studies of reaction mechanisms, moving us ever closer to the “island of stability”, in spectroscopy, allowing us to better understand nuclear structure at these extreme proton numbers, in chemical behavior, looking to determine how these elements should be placed on the Periodic Table, in performing the first measurements where isotopes are directly identified by their mass numbers, and in laying the foundation for a potential US-led new element discovery experiment. At present, the highest priority of the US Heavy Element community is to capitalize on the current investments by supporting the operations of US facilities at optimal values. These facilities include the Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System at Argonne National Laboratory and other Department of Energy facilities such as the 88-Inch Cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, which has a dedicated superheavy element program, as well as university laboratories, including Texas A&M University. The High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is crucial to providing the radioactive isotopes required for heavy element science targets. This facility should be supported to provide the actinide materials that are essential for US-based science. Production of stable, rare isotopes for beam material, including 48 Ca, 50 Ti, 54 Cr and 58 Fe, at the Stable Isotope Production and Research Center is critical to continued research in heavy element science and should be a priority. The continued development of targets for heavy element science and retaining US-based expertise is critical for the heavy element community. This is an area that is currently under pressure. For example, the target laboratory at Argonne National Laboratory serves a broad community and is currently under threat due to loss of critical personnel. The skills needed to make targets for nuclear science and develop new targetry methods need to be supported long term at Argonne, Oak Ridge and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories as well as maintaining the programs at Oregon State University and San José State University as vital pipelines for training students. Advances in theory are the foundation to understand how nuclei behave and to predict those behaviors in new circumstances. Progress in these studies will necessitate continued and new investment and access to high-performance computing. The future health of the heavy element field is dependent on the continuous support of talented early-career professionals at all levels. It is critical that opportunities continue to be created for the next generation to become established in heavy element research so that we can ensure the field is attracting and retaining the best minds for continued success. It is also clear that to ensure diversity of ideas, perspectives and techniques, we need to recruit diverse personnel that are trained at the best facilities. The heavy element community is in support of continued investment to programs with initiatives in diversity, equity, and inclusion. Looking to the next decade of research, support needs to maintain and grow US leadership in heavy element science. Specifically, new investments in state-of-the-art instrumentation will be essential to scientific development of the field and in expanding scientific knowledge. Advances in the next generation of electron cyclotron resonance ion sources, multi-reflection time-of-flight devices, laser spectroscopy, trapping methods and next generation alpha and gamma spectroscopy systems should be prioritized.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Low Cost, High Volume, Carbon Fiber Precursor for Plasma Oxidation

Light weighting with carbon fiber is critical to improving the energy efficiency of wind turbines, airplanes, and automobiles, but the high cost of carbon fiber continues to limit market growth and applications. Half of this cost is in the raw materials. For the carbon fiber market to reach the next level of adoption, the cost of both the raw materials and conversion must be reduced. This project considered the combination of low-cost, textile-grade precursors combined with the increased efficiency of plasma oxidation to greatly reduce the cost of carbon fiber. The primary objective of this project was to make industrial-grade carbon fiber (550 ksi tensile strength, 35 Msi tensile modulus) from textile-grade PAN precursors, something that cannot be achieved with conventional oxidation and to date has not been achieved with any technology. To accomplish this, the project team iteratively optimized the process conditions in the plasma oxidation and carbonization stages to maximize the tensile properties of the resultant carbon fibers. This involved implementing experimental designs for both stages, whereby process conditions (e.g. temperature) were varied and correlated to fiber properties. Samples of oxidized PAN fibers (OPFs) were prepared using a small pilot-scale plasma oxidation oven at 4XTechnologies (4XT). The thermal, chemical, and physical properties of OPF samples were analyzed by the University of Tennessee (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The OPF samples were then converted to carbon fiber by subsequent low- and high-temperature carbonization using a lab-scale furnace at ORNL. The resultant carbon fibers were tested for tensile strength also at ORNL, and the results were fed back into the experimental design. Of the hundreds of carbon fiber samples produced over the course of the project, the best sample had an average break strength of 479 ksi and modulus of 33 Msi. While the best tensile properties achieved fell short of the final project targets of 550 ksi for break strength and 35 Msi for modulus, the team demonstrated the potential to produce industrial-grade carbon fiber using textile-grade precursors. The best performing fiber samples had tensile properties that are 87% of the goal for tensile strength and 94% of the goal for tensile modulus. With additional optimization work, it is likely that the targets could be achieved, since only a fraction of the process parameter space was explored during this project. 4XT and its affiliate (4M) have already secured funding through private equity, and there is a CRADA (Cooperative Research and Development Agreement) project currently underway with the Carbon Fiber Technology Center (CFTF) at ORNL to continue this research. Additionally, while not an original goal of the project, the carbon fibers for most samples had diameters >8.5μm. This is considerably larger than commercially available carbon fiber products, which can impart unique properties to the composites (e.g. increased compressive strength) and decrease manufacturing costs even further. Moreover, these fibers were oxidized with plasma oxidation using residence times ranging <60mins, which would be considered fast for normal diameter fibers, but it is as much as 5x faster when factoring in the diameter of the fibers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Controlled environment agriculture: An opportunity to strengthen interagency research collaboration in the US government

Challenges facing food production and agricultural systems are increasingly interconnected with economic, security, health, and equity issues, among others. Threats such as extreme weather, economic volatility, and shrinking water resources and arable land, influence our ability to maintain a safe and resilient food supply. One promising solution to these threats is controlled environment agriculture (CEA). In many cases, CEA can drastically reduce the amount of water and land used in crop production while increasing productivity. Operations may be established in nearly any environment and harvests can take place year-round, supporting food system resiliency and sustainability. CEA sits at the nexus of a number of disciplines and industries, making it well suited for transdisciplinary and multi-institutional research coordination. Herein, authors from multiple US government agencies present CEA as a case study in improving cross-agency research collaboration. The federal government houses a range of scientific expertise and research capabilities, positioning scientists to lead national and global efforts in transdisciplinary, interagency approaches to complex challenges. Navigating cross-agency collaboration can be a challenge, especially coordinating across different scientific disciplines, geographic locations, and funding mechanisms. To enhance multiagency efforts, collaborators could prioritize (i) organizing personnel and resources, (ii) enhancing existing multiagency collaborations, and (iii) focusing on further opportunities for coordination. Adopting these approaches could enable federal researchers to reinforce and advance academic and industry efforts to address current CEA challenges while solidifying the United States as a leader in this arena.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗