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At least 577 records · Page 32

Extinction-to-Backscatter Ratios of Lofted Aerosol Layers Observed During the First Three Months of CALIPSO Measurements

Case studies from the first three months of the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Spaceborne Observations (CALIPSO) measurements of lofted aerosol layers are analyzed using transmittance [Young, 1995] and two-wavelength algorithms [Vaughan et al., 2004] to determine the aerosol extinction-to-backscatter ratios at 532 and 1064 nm. The transmittance method requires clear air below the layer so that the transmittance through the layer can be determined. Suitable scenes are selected from the browse images and clear air below features is identified by low 532 nm backscatter signal and confirmed by low depolarization and color ratios. The transmittance and two-wavelength techniques are applied to a number of lofted layers and the extinction-to-backscatter ratios are compared with values obtained from the CALIPSO aerosol models [Omar et al., 2004]. The results obtained from these studies are used to adjust the aerosol models and develop observations based extinction-to-backscatter ratio look-up tables and phase functions. Values obtained by these techniques are compared to Sa determinations using other independent methods with a goal of developing probability distribution functions of aerosol type-specific extinction to backscatter ratios. In particular, the results are compared to values determined directly by the High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) during the CALIPSO CloudSat Validation Experiments (CCVEX) and Sa determined by the application of the two-wavelength lidar Constrained Ratio Aerosol Model-fit (CRAM) retrieval approach [Cattrall et al., 2005; Reagan et al., 2004] to the HSRL data. The results are also compared to values derived using the empirical relationship between the multiple-scattering fraction and the linear depolarization ratio by using Monte Carlo simulations of water clouds [Hu et al., 2006].

Omar, Ali H.↗

Global 3-D Ionospheric Electron Density Reanalysis Based on Multisource Data Assimilation

We report preliminary results of a global 3-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis demonstration study during 2002-2011 based on multisource data assimilation. The monthly global ionospheric electron density reanalysis has been done by assimilating the quiet days ionospheric data into a data assimilation model constructed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2007 model and a Kalman filter technique. These data include global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from ground-based stations, ionospheric radio occultations by CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, SAC-C, Metop-A, and the TerraSAR-X satellites, and Jason-1 and 2 altimeter TEC measurements. The output of the reanalysis are 3-D gridded ionospheric electron densities with temporal and spatial resolutions of 1 h in universal time, 5deg in latitude, 10deg in longitude, and approx.30 km in altitude. The climatological features of the reanalysis results, such as solar activity dependence, seasonal variations, and the global morphology of the ionosphere, agree well with those in the empirical models and observations. The global electron content derived from the international GNSS service global ionospheric maps, the observed electron density profiles from the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar during 2007-2010, and foF2 observed by the global ionosonde network during 2002-2011 are used to validate the reanalysis method. All comparisons show that the reanalysis have smaller deviations and biases than the IRI-2007 predictions. Especially after April 2006 when the six COSMIC satellites were launched, the reanalysis shows significant improvement over the IRI predictions. The obvious overestimation of the low-latitude ionospheric F region densities by the IRI model during the 23/24 solar minimum is corrected well by the reanalysis. The potential application and improvements of the reanalysis are also discussed.

Xinan Yue↗

Improved Spectral Classification of Local K/M Dwarfs in SDSS Surveys. I. Chemodynamic Validation and Metallicity Calibration

An examination of 109,276 spectra of low-mass stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data archive, collected pre-2010, provides a broad collection of K/M (sub)dwarfs tracing the local (d ≲ 250 pc) population of the thin-disk, thick-disk, and halo, based on 3D kinematics. These populations have distinct metallicities and kinematics, which should be reflected in lower-mass members. One complication is measuring metallicities of M dwarfs from low-resolution spectroscopy or photometry alone remains a challenge, even with the availability of Gaia data. To better characterize physical parameters of low-mass stars observed by SDSS, we define a set of 536 improved, empirical K/M dwarf classification templates to more accurately determine spectral subtypes (K5.5–M8.5) and morphology classes (MCs) (0.5–12.5). We select the best-fit template to every archival SDSS spectrum in the range 5000–8000 Å based on minimum χ 2 value. We then use secondary metallicity estimators to calibrate the most likely [Fe/H] values corresponding to the assigned MC. We confirm that the most metal-rich K/M dwarfs have thin-disk kinematics, and we observe the known effect of Galactic radial metallicity migration, which we confirm is strongly imprinted in the chemodynamics of the local disk M dwarfs. Confirmation of these chemodynamic trends validates the precision of our improved templates for estimating [Fe/H] for M (sub)dwarfs, notably at the low-metallicity end (–3 < [Fe/H] < –1). Substructure in the chemodynamics of the most metal-poor K/M subdwarfs begins to distinguish between local Gaia-Enceladus and local in situ halo objects. This methodology opens the door to use the ubiquitous, local K/M (sub)dwarfs to trace local Galactic chemodynamics with the highest possible resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗

Determining the Minimum Phase‐to‐Phase Gap Distance for Unconventional Transmission Lines Using Numerical Method

With the increasing demand for power transmission, compact, high surge impedance loading (HSIL) high-voltage transmission lines have emerged as a viable solution due to their reduced land acquisition costs and higher power delivery capability. The compactness of a transmission line depends on effective insulation coordination, particularly in determining the phase-to-phase clearance, which is governed by the critical flashover voltage under switching and lightning overvoltage conditions. Traditional methods for phase-to-phase clearance rely on empirical formulas derived from experimental data, which are convenient for conventional high-voltage lines. However, unconventional HSIL lines require a faster and more adaptable evaluation method, as they involve optimized conductor positioning to reduce right-of-way requirements while enhancing natural power loadability. This study presents a simplified numerical approach to determine the minimum phase-to-phase gap, utilizing arc propagation viability curves, and offers an efficient alternative to conventional empirical methods. The proposed method was successfully applied to a 500 kV conventional line as well as 500 and 735 kV unconventional line designs, demonstrating its capability in accurately assessing insulation requirements. Results reveal that the method can support reduced gap clearances while still maintaining reliability, thereby validating its usefulness in optimizing compact transmission line configurations.

Arafat, Easir [The University of Texas at Dallas, ↗

A substructure energy method for prediction of Space Shuttle modal damping

The results of this program demonstrate the validity of a dissipative energy approach for predicting the damping of a four-component Space Shuttle model by means of modal parameters obtained from tests of the individual components. A relationship between modal damping energy per cycle and peak strain (or kinetic) energy is first determined empirically from test data for each component. Undamped analytical models of each component are also developed, and combined into a system model from which are obtained modal kinetic (or strain) energies for its respective modes. These data are then used with the empirical damping curves to apportion the proper amount of damping energy to each component in a combined system mode, and thereby allow a prediction of damping ratio.

Kana, D. D.↗

Surface albedo from bidirectional reflectance

The validity of integrating over discrete wavelength bands is examined to estimate total shortwave bidirectional reflectance of vegetated and bare soil surfaces. Methods for estimating albedo from multiple angle, discrete wavelength band radiometer measurements are studied. These methods include a numerical integration technique and the integration of an empirically derived equation for bidirectional reflectance. It is concluded that shortwave albedos estimated through both techniques agree favorably with the independent pyranometer measurements. Absolute rms errors are found to be 0.5 percent or less for both grass sod and bare soil surfaces.

Ranson, K. J.↗

Accuracy Quantification of the Loci-CHEM Code for Chamber Wall Heat Transfer in a GO2/GH2 Single Element Injector Model Problem

A robust rocket engine combustor design and development process must include tools which can accurately predict the multi-dimensional thermal environments imposed on solid surfaces by the hot combustion products. Currently, empirical methods used in the design process are typically one dimensional and do not adequately account for the heat flux rise rate in the near-injector region of the chamber. Computational Fluid Dynamics holds promise to meet the design tool requirement, but requires accuracy quantification, or validation, before it can be confidently applied in the design process. This effort presents the beginning of such a validation process for the Loci-CHEM CFD code. The model problem examined here is a gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) shear coaxial single element injector operating at a chamber pressure of 5.42 MPa. The GO2/GH2 propellant combination in this geometry represents one the simplest rocket model problems and is thus foundational to subsequent validation efforts for more complex injectors. Multiple steady state solutions have been produced with Loci-CHEM employing different hybrid grids and two-equation turbulence models. Iterative convergence for each solution is demonstrated via mass conservation, flow variable monitoring at discrete flow field locations as a function of solution iteration and overall residual performance. A baseline hybrid was used and then locally refined to demonstrate grid convergence. Solutions were obtained with three variations of the k-omega turbulence model.

West, Jeff↗

Accuracy Quantification of the Loci-CHEM Code for Chamber Wall Heat Fluxes in a G02/GH2 Single Element Injector Model Problem

A robust rocket engine combustor design and development process must include tools which can accurately predict the multi-dimensional thermal environments imposed on solid surfaces by the hot combustion products. Currently, empirical methods used in the design process are typically one dimensional and do not adequately account for the heat flux rise rate in the near-injector region of the chamber. Computational Fluid Dynamics holds promise to meet the design tool requirement, but requires accuracy quantification, or validation, before it can be confidently applied in the design process. This effort presents the beginning of such a validation process for the Loci- CHEM CPD code. The model problem examined here is a gaseous oxygen (GO2)/gaseous hydrogen (GH2) shear coaxial single element injector operating at a chamber pressure of 5.42 MPa. The GO2/GH2 propellant combination in this geometry represents one the simplest rocket model problems and is thus foundational to subsequent validation efforts for more complex injectors. Multiple steady state solutions have been produced with Loci-CHEM employing different hybrid grids and two-equation turbulence models. Iterative convergence for each solution is demonstrated via mass conservation, flow variable monitoring at discrete flow field locations as a function of solution iteration and overall residual performance. A baseline hybrid grid was used and then locally refined to demonstrate grid convergence. Solutions were also obtained with three variations of the k-omega turbulence model.

West, Jeff↗

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism

The purpose of covariance realism is to properly size a primary object's covariance in order to add validity to the calculation of the probability of collision. The covariance realism technique in this paper consists of three parts: collection/calculation of definitive state estimates through orbit determination, calculation of covariance realism test statistics at each covariance propagation point, and proper assessment of those test statistics. An empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) Goodness-of-Fit (GOF) method is employed to determine if a covariance is properly sized by comparing the empirical distribution of Mahalanobis distance calculations to the hypothesized parent 3-DoF chi-squared distribution. To realistically size a covariance for collision probability calculations, this study uses a state noise compensation algorithm that adds process noise to the definitive epoch covariance to account for uncertainty in the force model. Process noise is added until the GOF tests pass a group significance level threshold. The results of this study indicate that when outliers attributed to persistently high or extreme levels of solar activity are removed, the aforementioned covariance realism compensation method produces a tuned covariance with up to 80 to 90% of the covariance propagation timespan passing (against a 60% minimum passing threshold) the GOF tests-a quite satisfactory and useful result.

Realism↗

Validity of approximations used in mesonic atom calculations.

The Deser-Goldberger-Baumann-Thirring (DGBT) formula [a = 1/4B(ΔE 1S /|E 1S |)] and other various approximations commonly used to extract meson-nucleus scattering lengths from energy-level measurements on mesonic atoms are studied by means of a model calculation and are shown to be inadequate for most of the π − -mesonic atoms commonly considered. A simple empirical formula is obtained in place of the DGBT formula for the π − -mesonic atoms of the light nuclei. The DGBT formula is also examined for the case of the K − −He 4 atom and is found to be a good approximation.

Ryoichi Seki↗

Measurement of free chlorine levels in water using potentiometric responses of biofilms and applications for monitoring and managing the quality of potable water

We report residual free chlorine is not monitored continuously at scale in drinking water distribution systems because existing real-time sensor technologies require frequent maintenance, cleaning, and calibration, which makes these products too costly to be used throughout a distribution system. As a result, current measurement approaches require manual sampling, which is not feasible for the consistent monitoring of free chlorine because chlorine concentrations vary significantly throughout pipeline distribution and over time and space. This research presents an alternative and cost-effective method of predicting free chlorine levels in drinking water using graphite electrodes coated with naturally grown microbial biofilms. This Microbial Potentiometric Sensor (MPS) array was installed in a Continuously Mixed Batch Reactor (CMBR), and drinking water containing variable free chlorine concentrations. The chlorine concentrations were introduced in a controlled manner, and the MPS signals were monitored over time. MPS signals were measured from the change in Open Circuit Potential (OCP) across the MPS array in real-time. An empirically derived relationship between the normalized change in OCP and free chlorine was established by fitting individual and average MPS data to a decaying exponential growth function in order to predict free chlorine levels. The results show that free chlorine can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, with model validation showing an average absolute error of ±0.09 ppm below 1.1 ppm and ±0.30 ppm between 1.1 and 2.7 ppm. However, the accuracy of predictions was reduced at higher free chlorine levels. The researchers conclude that MPS systems may benefit drinking water distribution systems by measuring free chlorine. These advantages of the MPS are especially pronounced in the developing world because this system is inexpensive and does not require routine maintenance or cleaning. The system relies on a naturally forming and regenerating biofilm and an inexpensive potentiometric meter to produce stable measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗

Modeling and Evaluating Pilot Performance in NextGen: Review of and Recommendations Regarding Pilot Modeling Efforts, Architectures, and Validation Studies

NextGen operations are associated with a variety of changes to the national airspace system (NAS) including changes to the allocation of roles and responsibilities among operators and automation, the use of new technologies and automation, additional information presented on the flight deck, and the entire concept of operations (ConOps). In the transition to NextGen airspace, aviation and air operations designers need to consider the implications of design or system changes on human performance and the potential for error. To ensure continued safety of the NAS, it will be necessary for researchers to evaluate design concepts and potential NextGen scenarios well before implementation. One approach for such evaluations is through human performance modeling. Human performance models (HPMs) provide effective tools for predicting and evaluating operator performance in systems. HPMs offer significant advantages over empirical, human-in-the-loop testing in that (1) they allow detailed analyses of systems that have not yet been built, (2) they offer great flexibility for extensive data collection, (3) they do not require experimental participants, and thus can offer cost and time savings. HPMs differ in their ability to predict performance and safety with NextGen procedures, equipment and ConOps. Models also vary in terms of how they approach human performance (e.g., some focus on cognitive processing, others focus on discrete tasks performed by a human, while others consider perceptual processes), and in terms of their associated validation efforts. The objectives of this research effort were to support the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in identifying HPMs that are appropriate for predicting pilot performance in NextGen operations, to provide guidance on how to evaluate the quality of different models, and to identify gaps in pilot performance modeling research, that could guide future research opportunities. This research effort is intended to help the FAA evaluate pilot modeling efforts and select the appropriate tools for future modeling efforts to predict pilot performance in NextGen operations.

pilot human performance models↗

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and Development of Stable Nanocrystalline High‐Entropy Alloy: Coupling Self‐Stabilization and Solute Grain Boundary Segregation Effects

Abstract Grain growth is prevalent in nanocrystalline (NC) materials at low homologous temperatures. Solute element addition is used to offset excess energy that drives coarsening at grain boundaries (GBs), albeit mostly for simple binary alloys. This thermodynamic approach is considered complicated in multi‐component alloy systems due to complex pairwise interactions among alloying elements. Guided by empirical and GB‐segregation enthalpy considerations for binary‐alloy systems, a novel alloy design strategy, the “ pseudo‐binary thermodynamic ” approach, for stabilizing NC‐high entropy alloys (HEAs) and other multi‐component‐alloy variants is proposed. Using Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 as a model‐HEA to validate this approach, Zr, Sc, and Hf, are identified as the preferred solutes that would segregate to HEA‐GBs to stabilize it against growth. Using Zr, NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 HEAs with minor additions of Zr are synthesized, followed by annealing up to 1123 K. Using advanced characterization techniques— in situ X‐ray diffraction (XRD), scanning/transmission electron microscopy (S/TEM), and atom probe tomography, nanograin stability due to coupling self‐stabilization and solute‐GB segregation effects is reported in HEAs up to substantially high temperatures. The self‐stabilization effect originates from the preferential GB‐segregation of constituent HEA‐elements that stabilizes NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 up to 0.5 T m ( T m –melting temperature). Meanwhile, solute‐GB segregation originates from Zr segregation to NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 GBs; this results in further stabilization of the phase and grain‐size (≈14 nm) up to ≈0.58 and ≈0.64 T m , respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Development of a Gibbs Energy Minimiser for the MOOSE-based Corrosion Modelling App Yellowjacket and Validation of MSTDB

Nuclear materials are highly complex multiscale, multiphysics systems,and an effective prediction of nuclear reactor performance and safety requires simulation capabilities that tightly couple different physical phenomena. The Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) provides the computational foundation for performing such simulations. With the move towards advanced reactors, such as the Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), that employ high temperature fluids compared to conventional reactors, corrosion has become a problem of great interest. A new application called Yellowjacket is currently under development to directly couple thermodynamic equilibrium and kinetics with phase field models in order to model corrosion in MSRs. As part of Yellowjacket, a Gibbs energy minimiser is being developed to perform thermochemical equilibrium calculations for a range of different materials, which is currently in its infancy. This report describes the further progress towards the development of Yellowjacket Gibbs energy minimiser. Ontario Tech University is developing a new Gibbs energy minimiser for Yellowjacket which is the primary contribution of this work. The aim to develop a thermochemistry solver for the MOOSE framework following the same development philosophy and using the same tools and libraries. A special focus is on performance, documentation and SQA. Furthermore through a scope extension partway through the fiscal year a thorough assessment of the MSTDB-TC v1.3 was performed at Ontario Tech University in the context of continuous improvement and quality assurance. The objective of the work was to have an arm’s length review of the database to give confidence that the database is performing as it was intended while assessing its current state to give recommendations to future developments. This assessment involved two parts: A) a quantitative assessment, and B) a qualitative assessment. Part A involved developing an automated test-suite that would compute values from the database using Thermochimica with comparisons to experimental measurements for validation purposes, which gives confidence to the database’s stakeholders that its functioning properly. Part B involved reviewing all binary systems in the database and making a qualitative assessment with two performance indicators: comprehensiveness and overall confidence. It is important to note that the models in the database are empirical, which is to say that the quality of any model is highly dependent on the experimental data used to inform its development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗