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At least 577 records · Page 32

An empirical study of moving horizon closed-loop demand response scheduling

The potential of electricity-intensive chemical plants to engage in demand response (DR) initiatives in support of power grid operations has been the subject of many conceptual studies. In this work, using an industrially-relevant model of an air separation unit, we undertake an extensive simulation study of moving horizon (MH) rescheduling approaches, where we "close the scheduling loop" based on updated information regarding disturbances such as changes in electricity prices, ambient conditions and chemical product demand. Our study produces several unexpected findings regarding the non-periodic nature of rescheduling solutions, the impact of the accuracy of disturbance forecasts on the economics of DR scheduling, and on the interplay of simultaneously dealing with fluctuations on both the supply side (i.e., electricity prices) and the product demand side of the plant. Furthermore, we posit that the latter fluctuations pose significant limitations to the potential of a chemical plant to engage in DR.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Peak Demand Savings from Efficiency: Opportunities and Practices [Slides]

Electricity systems are designed to meet peak demand - the maximum load during a specified period, typically in summer - even if that demand occurs only a few hours in a year. Yet most evaluations of electricity efficiency programs focus on reductions in annual energy use. However, these efficiency programs are also delivering peak demand savings at an affordable cost. A new study by the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) explores the program administrator (PA) cost - or the cost to implement an energy efficiency program to a utility or third party administrator - of saving peak demand through efficiency programs for electric utility customers. Berkeley Lab collected data on costs, annual energy savings, and peak demand savings for electricity efficiency programs for 52 utilities and other program administrators in 15 states between 2014 and 2018. The analysis focused on eight program types that represent 68% of the peak demand savings for the utilities and program administrators studied. The findings improve our understanding of which energy efficiency programs produce the most peak demand savings and their cost performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Commercial and Industrial Energy Procurement in Nigeria: A Consumer's Guidebook

Across Africa, countries have incorporated a variety of new energy sources into their energy mix to account for increasing demand. In Nigeria, electricity consumption per capita has grown nearly 50% in the past 20 years. To address rising demand for energy in Nigeria, the country has passed several recent policies and regulations aimed at increasing energy generation across the country, improving the country's transmission infrastructure, and ensuring that electricity reliably reaches end users, including commercial and industrial (C&I) customers. This guidebook is designed for C&I customers in Nigeria to use in the consideration of procuring such onsite, captive energy systems to supplement their energy needs. Each section of this guidebook touches on a step of the procurement process and details the relevant stakeholders, processes, and data needed to make decisions during that step.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Optimizing design and dispatch of a resilient renewable energy microgrid for a South African hospital

Lack of access to reliable energy is a major concern for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The national grids are unable to consistently satisfy demand. Therefore, users turn to distributed generation systems in the form of back-up generators. However, such systems are usually designed based on a rule of thumb. We employ a mixed-integer linear programming model that considers several options such as renewable energy, combined heat and power, and storage technologies, in addition to those on-site, to provide optimal design and dispatch decisions that minimize total cost. We apply this model to a case study for a hospital in South Africa, considering its need for reliable electricity in light of multiple outages that might occur over the course of a year, as well as its high heating and cooling loads. Our results show that optimal design and dispatch decisions for the distributed generation system address reliability challenges, regardless of the time at which they occur. And, these solutions yield millions of dollars in savings, suggesting that technologies such as the absorption chiller may be overlooked in typical designs; its integration can reduce demand charges even in the absence of combined heat and power. We show that total cost is most sensitive to changes in site electrical demand, followed by capital cost, fuel cost, photovoltaic production, and monthly demand charges; changes in fuel cost primarily affect system sizes of combined heat and power and the absorption chiller, while photovoltaic system size is more sensitive to the changes in capital and fuel costs, photovoltaic resource availability, and hourly electrical demand. Finally, an outage simulator demonstrates the ability of our optimized system to sustain with no interruptions in power five-hour outages with probability 1.0 and ten-hour outages with probability 0.65, significant improvements over 0.5 and 0.0, respectively, under a business-as-usual case.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

SolarPlus Optimizer: Integrated Control of Solar, Batteries, and Flexible Loads for Small Commercial Buildings

Building-level microgrids may be a key strategy to unlock the combined potential of flexible loads, renewable generation, and energy storage. However, few software options exist for integrated control of building loads and other distributed energy resources at this scale. The commercial software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice. The SolarPlus Optimizer (SPO) is an open-source building-level microgrid control platform that uses Model Predictive Control to optimize both building loads and behind-the-meter energy storage to reduce energy bills and increase demand flexibility. This paper evaluates the capabilities of SPO in a small commercial building in Northern California under multiple electricity tariffs and demand response scenarios. Comparing SPO operation with an emulated battery and baseline operation employing a commercial optimization service, SPO reduced electricity bills by an estimated 7.3% in summer, 3.2% in spring, and 3.7% in winter. In a “load shape” scenario meant to counter the “duck curve”, SPO achieved 71% fewer violations from the load signal than the baseline control method. During a three hour long load shed event, SPO reduced cooling and refrigeration load by 38%. This research shows significant potential to provide load flexibility for building-level microgrids for this type of control systems. Finally, the paper discusses the future direction of research on open-source control systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Uncontrolled Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts on Distribution Electric Power Systems with Primarily Residential, Commercial or Industrial Loads

An increase in Electric Vehicles (EV) will result in higher demands on the distribution electric power systems (EPS) which may result in thermal line overloading and low voltage violations. To understand the impact, this work simulates two EV charging scenarios (home- and work-dominant) under potential 2030 EV adoption levels on 10 actual distribution feeders that support residential, commercial, and industrial loads. The simulations include actual driving patterns of existing (non-EV) vehicles taken from global positioning system (GPS) data. The GPS driving behaviors, which explain the spatial and temporal EV charging demands, provide information on each vehicles travel distance, dwell locations, and dwell durations. Then, the EPS simulations incorporate the EV charging demands to calculate the power flow across the feeder. Simulation results show that voltage impacts are modest (less than 0.01 p.u.), likely due to robust feeder designs and the models only represent the high-voltage (“primary”) system components. Line loading impacts are more noticeable, with a maximum increase of about 15%. Additionally, the feeder peak load times experience a slight shift for residential and mixed feeders (≈1 h), not at all for the industrial, and 8 h for the commercial feeder.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Role of Electric Vehicles in the U.S. Power Sector Transition: A System-Level Perspective

After over a century of petroleum dominance many anticipate that electrification could disrupt the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes: variable renewables are displacing conventional generation sources; distributed generation is disrupting utility business models; energy storage and other new technologies are emerging; and the traditional system based on the premise that generation is dispatched to match an inelastic demand is evolving to create a system with greater participation in power system planning and operations from traditionally passive consumers. In this context, it is important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand and in turn electricity supply, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system and the opportunity to leverage flexible electric vehicle (EV) charging to better integrate demand and supply. Assessing the impacts of electrification on the energy system requires an understanding of how it might impact the amount and shape of electricity consumption, and how this electricity can be supplied. In particular, increased adoption of electric vehicles introduces a new source of demand altogether, potentially very flexible. Moreover, electrification could shift the consumption of natural gas between sectors, thereby affecting the economics for natural gas-fired generation relative to other electricity generation options. Several factors will impact the evolution of the power system under a widespread electrified future, which, in turn, could have far-reaching effects on future energy costs and emissions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking

The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Pricing Strategy of Electric Vehicle Aggregators Based on Locational Marginal Price to Minimize Photovoltaic (PV) Curtailment

The global climate crisis demands urgent action to mitigate global warming. Using renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, for electricity generation is crucial. This shift from centralized to distributed power systems, however, brings challenges, including voltage fluctuations and renewable energy curtailment. The rapid growth of the electric vehicle (EV) industry adds complexity, increasing overall electricity demand and straining the power supply during peak charging times. This paper proposes a scheduling strategy for EV aggregators to reduce renewable energy curtailment and stabilize grid operation by strategically scheduling EV charging. Using Multi -Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim), a traffic simulation tool, EV driving data in Denver, Colorado, USA, were modeled. The EV aggregator adjusts charging fees based on locational marginal prices, encouraging EVs to charge at different stations according to pricing. Simulations on an IEEE 33-bus system with distributed energy resources and EV charging stations validate the proposed algorithm, demonstrating its effectiveness in reducing curtailment by 12.55% and stabilizing grid operation.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Scalable Truck Charging Demand Simulation for Cost-Optimized Infrastructure Planning

This project developed a scalable, high-resolution model to simulate medium- and heavy-duty (MHD) electric truck charging demand and assess its impact on grid infrastructure. Using generative modeling, simulation, and cost optimization, the project delivered an end-to-end software pipeline and a library of 96 real-world scenarios for the Dallas–Houston megaregion. We demonstrated a modular architecture for transportation and grid modeling, implemented cost-optimized infrastructure planning methods, and quantified grid capital, operational, and environmental costs across a wide range of truck electrification scenarios. The results have been adopted by major utility stakeholders and contributed to regional planning efforts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Maximizing Demand Flexibility with Buildings and FERC 2222

In 2020, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a rule, Order 2222, that requires market operators to create pathways enabling distributed energy resource aggregators (DERAs) to compete in all regional organized wholesale electric markets. The goal is to encourage various forms of distributed energy resources (DERs) to participate in electricity markets in a way that would enhance competition, encourage innovation, and drive down costs for consumers. In this document, we briefly discuss how FERC Order 2222 affects the opportunities for participation in electricity markets for building owners and operators, the role of aggregators, and the involvement of buildings in the electricity market.

demand flexibility↗

Perspectives on Cobalt Supply through 2030 in the Face of Changing Demand

Lithium-ion battery demand, particularly for electric vehicles, is projected to increase by over 300% throughout the next decade. With these expected increases in demand, cobalt (Co)-dependent technologies face the risk of significant impact from supply concentration and mining limitations in the short term. In this study, increased extraction and secondary recovery form the basis of modeling scenarios that examine implications on Co supply to 2030. Demand for Co is estimated to range from 235 to 430 ktonnes in 2030. This upper bound on Co demand in 2030 corresponds to 280% of world refinery capacity in 2016. Supply from scheduled and unscheduled production as well as secondary production is estimated to range from 320 to 460 ktonnes. Our analysis suggests the following: (1) Co price will remain relatively stable in the short term, given that this range suggests even a supply surplus, (2) future Co supply will become more diversified geographically and mined more as a byproduct of nickel (Ni) over this period, and (3) for this demand to be met, attention should be paid to sustained investments in refined supply of Co and secondary recovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-temperature Pumping of Silicon for Thermal Energy Grid Storage

As the cost of renewable energy falls below fossil fuels, the key barrier to widespread sustainable electricity has become availability on demand. Energy storage can enable dispatchable renewables, but only with drastic cost reductions compared to current batteries. One electricity storage concept that could enable these cost reductions stores electricity as sensible heat in an extremely hot liquid (>2000 °C) and uses multi-junction photovoltaics (MPV) as a heat engine to convert it back to electricity on demand, hours or days later. This paper follows previously reported technoeconomics and liquid containment, examining equipment that would be needed to exchange heat between resistive heaters, a molten silicon storage tank above 2000 °C, and a heat engine. Herein, we report on a pump that was designed and tested to circulate the liquid silicon between these three regions and the effect of spatial thermal cycling was simulated in models and experiments. While the pump successfully circulated silicon between 1800-2080 °C for ten hours, circulation with a temperature gradient caused it and other non-isothermal experiments to dissolve significantly due to the temperature dependent solubility of not only carbon, but also silicon carbide which otherwise protected the graphite infrastructure. Furthermore, methods to reduce dissolution and an alternative embodiment are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Automated Control of Transactive HVACs in Energy Distribution Systems

Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems contribute significantly to a building’s energy consumption. In the recent years, there is an increased interest in developing transactive approaches which could enable automated and flexible scheduling of HVAC systems based on the customer demand and the electricity prices decided by the suppliers. Flexible and automated scheduling of the HVAC systems make it a prime source for participation in residential demand response or transactive energy systems. Therefore, it is of significant interest to identify an optimal strategy to control the HVAC systems. Here, reducing the energy cost while keeping the comfort level acceptable to the users, we argue that such a control strategy should consider both the energy cost and user comfort simultaneously. Accordingly, we develop the control strategy through the solution of an optimization problem that balances between the energy cost and consumer’s dissatisfaction. This optimization enables us to solve a decision-making problem through first price prediction and then choosing HVAC temperature settings throughout the day based on the predicted price, history of the price and HVAC settings, and outside temperature. More specifically, we formulate the control design as a Markov decision process (MDP) using deep neural networks and use Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients (DDPG)-based deep reinforcement learning algorithm to find the optimal control strategy for HVAC systems that balances between electricity cost and user comfort.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Thermal energy grid storage: Liquid containment and pumping above 2000 °C

As the cost of renewable energy falls below fossil fuels, the key barrier to widespread sustainable electricity has become availability on demand. Energy storage can enable dispatchable renewables, but only with drastic cost reductions compared to current battery technologies. One electricity storage concept that could enable these cost reductions stores electricity as sensible heat in an extremely hot liquid (>2000°C) and uses multi-junction photovoltaics (MPV) as a heat engine to convert it back to electricity on demand hours, or days, later. Furthermore, this paper reports the first containment of silicon in a multipart graphite tank above 2000°C, using material grades that are affordable for energy storage at GWh scales. Low cost molded graphite with particle sizes as large as 10 μm successfully contained metallurgical grade silicon, even with as much as twothirds iron by mass for up to 10 hours and temperatures as high as 2300°C, in tanks as large as two gallons.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Quantification of Energy Savings and Demand Reduction for a Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage (Final Report)

To mitigate the variation in demand on the electric grid, thermal energy storage (TES) is an alternative to electric batteries or installing new peaking power plants. Stakeholders and policy makers across the United States have expressed interests in promoting TES, as demonstrated by the US Department of Energy’s Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings program and the efforts of various state legislatures. However, the cost value provided by TES are unclear. If reliable cost benefits were determined, stakeholders would have a clearer picture of the financial returns that can be gained from their investment in TES. The study in this report is conducted by ORNL with collaboration with Emerson the Helix Innovation Center. In the first part of this report, EnergyPlus was used to perform whole-building simulations for two residential buildings in Indianapolis and Atlanta. The HVAC system in both buildings were equipped with phase change material TES. The TES tank was charged in off-peak hours and discharged in peak hours to perform load shifting. First, the economic value implied by existing time-of-use (TOU) rates offered by utility companies was analyzed via whole-building simulation. Second, existing demand reduction (DR) incentives sourced from 3 different electrical grid administrators (i.e., California, Texas, and New England region) were surveyed to determine their implied value. The study suggests that the traditional value analysis that focuses on ROI for the building owner significantly undervalues TES technology making economic viability difficult. A more comprehensive value analysis that includes peak demand management and deferred capital for peaking power plants shows that TES should be economically viable but here the value is greater for the utility and requires large market penetration and aggregation to fully realize the benefits. Therefore, to facilitate commercialization, new business models are needed that include a broader range of stakeholders and distribute the value of TES proportionally. In the 2 nd part of this project, the benefits of a novel phase change material (PCM) integrated heat pump configuration were evaluated via detailed component based simulation. A one-dimensional PCM heat exchanger model which discretizes the PCM tank and refrigerant tubes into small control volumes is developed. Each control volume can have different PCM temperatures, PCM properties, and heat transfer coefficients. The PCM tank is charged by a wrapped tank condenser and discharged by an internal refrigerant coil. The PCM heat exchanger model is integrated into DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model for heat pump system simulation. To demonstrate the performance of the PCM integrated heat pump, a case study in Chicago was performed. A Time-of-Use utility structure-based control strategy is implemented to schedule the PCM tank charging and discharging mode switching. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, the PCM integrated heat pump shows superior performance on load shifting and utility cost reduction. As a result, the proposed system demonstrates 24.6% utility saving for cooling application and 25.8% utility saving for heating application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗