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At least 577 records · Page 32

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation-Based Inference for Neutrino Interaction Model Tuning

This project demonstrates, for the first time, the application of simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques to tune neutrino–nucleus interaction models. Using a mock dataset based on the MicroBooNE tuning of the GENIE event generator, our approach employs a Neural Posterior Estimator (NPE) with Masked Autoregressive Flows (MAF) to infer the posterior distributions of key GENIE parameters directly from simulated histograms. The workflow provides a scalable and amortized framework for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, offering a pathway to more efficient and uncertainty-aware model tuning for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE and SBND.

Tame-Narvaez, KarlaMaria [Fermi National Accelerat↗

Hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall error propagation to rainfall-runoff model hydrographs

Rainfall is arguably the most important yet most variable input for rainfall-runoff hydrologic models. In this study, the authors search for the characteristics of radar-rainfall estimates that are most important for skillful streamflow predictions. They perform comprehensive hydrologic investigations of radar-rainfall characteristics, including spatiotemporal resolution, radar range visibility, statistical characterization of rainfall variability, all vis-a-vis basin characteristics such as size and river network topology. Since the true rainfall fields are unknown, the authors exploit a paradigm of using two independently constructed radar-rainfall products i.e., Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor and IFC-ZR used operationally by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC). Using the distributed hydrologic model called the Hillslope-Link Model for the domain of the state of Iowa, they evaluate streamflow prediction at 140 USGS gauge stations that monitor rivers in Iowa. Through spatial and temporal rainfall aggregation experiments, the authors show that the impact of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall is significant typically for smaller basins while starts reducing significantly for basins larger than 1,000 km 2 . Other rainfall characteristics they explored do not reveal a strong signature in the relationship of rainfall differences between the two products and hydrograph errors. However, exploring the product similarities rather than differences reveals that the basin-wide rainfall volume has the most significant effect on streamflow prediction. The results from this study are generalizable for all rainfall observing systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Characterization of Uranium Foil Irradiations at the WSU TRIGA Reactor Using a New Reactor Model in SCALE [Slides]

A depleted uranium foil and a highly enriched uranium foil that were irradiated at the Washington State University TRIGA reactor were used to measure the relative production of 237 U and 239 U, two key isotopes of interest in nuclear forensics, as well as their decay daughters 237 Np and 239 Pu. Total fissions in the two foils were also estimated using 99 Mo measurement. A reactor model of the TRIGA was built in the SCALE neutron transport code using dimensions obtained from an existing MCNP geometry. The model was successfully used to simulate foil fissions and the reaction rate ratios in 238 U, using the laboratory-measured isotope ratios as a benchmark. The flux distribution in the foils was determined. Finally, using the continuous energy Tsunami-3d module of SCALE, a sensitivity/uncertainty analysis was performed to determine the effects on the reaction ratio caused by other reactions in the reactor and by uncertainties in the known cross-sections.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal-Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

The cooccurrence of coastal and riverine flooding leads to compound events with substantial impacts on people and property in low-lying coastal areas. Climate change could increase the level of compound flood hazard through higher extreme sea levels and river flows. Here, a bivariate flood hazard assessment method is proposed to estimate compound coastal-riverine frequency under current and future climate conditions. A copula-based approach is used to estimate the joint return period (JRP) of compound floods by incorporating sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in peak river flows into the marginal distributions of flood drivers. Specifically, the changes in JRP of compound major coastal-riverine flooding defined based on simultaneous exceedances above major coastal and riverine thresholds, are explored by midcentury. Subsequently, the increase in the probability of occurrence of at least one compound major coastal-riverine flooding for a given period of time is quantified. The proposed compound flood hazard assessment is conducted at 26 paired tidal-riverine stations along the Contiguous United States coast with long-term data and defined flood thresholds. We show that the northeast Atlantic and the western part of the Gulf coasts are experiencing the highest compound major coastal-riverine flood probability under current conditions. However, future SLR scenarios show the highest frequency amplification along the southeast Atlantic coast. The impact of changes in peak river flows is found to be considerably less than that of SLR. Climate change impacts, especially SLR, may lead to more frequent compound events, which cannot be ignored for future adaptation responses in estuary regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stress field measurements using quantitative schlieren

Quantitative schlieren analysis is extended here to optically transparent solids in quasi-static and dynamic experiments to measure stress distributions. The quasi-static experiments in polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) compared refraction angles and stress gradients calculated from schlieren images to the analytical Flamant solution of a line load on a half-space. The quantitative schlieren measurements of the stress field in the thin sample with a load compared well to the analytical solution. The analysis method was then extended to explosive induced shock waves in PMMA. The explosive induced response of PMMA was experimentally studied using high-speed schlieren to visualize the shock propagation in conjunction with Photon Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) to record surface velocity histories. The stress state estimated from the schlieren images was compared to the stress calculated from the PDV measurements. High-speed imaging limitations caused the shock wave to not be fully resolved in the images, but was resolved in the PDV measurement. The stress state behind the shock calculated from the high-speed images followed a similar trend to the stress calculated from the PDV measurements.

Physics↗

A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage (Task 3 Report Laboratory Characterization of Stress Dependent Wavespeed)

This report presents a summary of Task 3 (Laboratory Experimental Characterization of Stress Dependent Wavespeed in Rocks and Application for In-Situ Stress Estimation) of the project titled “A Non-Invasive Approach for Elucidating the Spatial Distribution of In-Situ Stress in Deep Subsurface Geologic Formations Considered for CO 2 Storage”. The main objective of this component of the project was to employ non-destructive techniques to determine how compressional (P)-wave and shear (S)-wave propagation velocities are related to triaxial-stress conditions in laboratory test samples of targeted reservoir rocks. The overarching principle is that such laboratory measurements can provide a basis whereby field measurements of wave-propagation velocities in rocks can be used to ascertain the stress state that would be expected to generate the observed wave-propagation behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Field Validation of Dynamic Mechanical Torque Measurements for Geared Wind Turbines

Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors' successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Resource assessment of ocean thermal energy conversion in Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands

Island communities often struggle to establish and maintain traditional electric grids and are therefore heavily reliant on costly imported fossil fuels. In the case of Puerto Rico, these challenges are enhanced by extreme weather and other natural hazards that threaten the local electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) could play an important role in establishing a more resilient electrical grid in the region. Here, in this study, a detailed analysis is conducted to characterize the ocean thermal resource and power potential of OTEC in Puerto Rico based on a 14-year dataset of modeled ocean temperature. The assessment considers seasonal and interannual variability in the region's thermal resource and examines the operational limitations associated with minimal thermal gradients required to run a typical OTEC heat engine. Notably, the local thermal resource is found to be sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate patterns, with La Niña conditions linked to greater OTEC power availability. Seven areas of opportunity are identified based on their resource potential and proximity to existing electrical distribution lines, including two that could benefit the nearby U.S. Virgin Islands. The greatest OTEC power potential is observed to the south of the main island of Puerto Rico in the Caribbean Sea with an estimated capacity of 138 MW for a plant pumping cold water from a depth of 1,000 m, or the equivalent amount of electricity required to power 219,000 households.

OTEC↗

Resilient State Recovery Using Prior Measurement Support Information

Resilient state recovery of cyber-physical systems has attracted much research attention due to the unique challenges posed by the tight coupling between communication, computation, and the underlying physics of such systems. By modeling attacks as additive adversary signals to a sparse subset of measurements, this resilient recovery problem can be formulated as an error correction problem. To achieve exact state recovery, most existing results require less than 50% of the measurement nodes to be compromised, which limits the resiliency of the estimators. In this paper, we show that observer resiliency can be further improved by incorporating data-driven prior information. Here, we provide an analytical bridge between the precision of prior information and the resiliency of the estimator. By quantifying the relationship between the estimation error of the weighted ℓ 1 observer and the precision of the support prior, this quantified relationship provides guidance for the estimator’s weight design to achieve optimal resiliency. Several numerical simulations and an application case study are presented to validate the theoretical claims.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Review of Value of Solar Studies In Theory and In Practice

This brief summarizes a collection of state- and utility-commissioned value-of-solar (VoS) studies and related literature, with a focus on who commissioned the study, which value and cost categories were discussed and/or quantified, and the methods used. Our objective is to compile information on prior VoS studies to inform state regulators and other stakeholders that may pursue related studies or integrate findings into rate design. The brief is organized into three parts: 1) an introduction to distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) compensation; 2) a review of theoretical research on VoS; and 3) a review of VoS studies. The vast majority of VoS studies have served an informational role of quantifying the net benefits of PV. Three studies were commissioned in states or utility service territories that subsequently implemented VoS tariffs in California, New York, and Austin, Texas. When applied as a tariff, VoS aims to compensate PV output as efficiently as possible by doing so at rates that reflect the marginal benefits and costs of PV through value and cost categories that may vary temporally and/or geographically. This could lead to higher compensation in locations and times where more PV output is more valuable and consequently drive adoption in those locations to provide more societal benefits. Value and cost factors can be broadly grouped into five categories: generation, transmission, distribution, other utility, and other social categories. Those conducting VoS studies must weigh various tradeoffs when deciding which categories to include and quantify. Tradeoffs include prioritizing values based on their magnitude of value or cost impact, as well as taking into account the feasibility of data collection and accurate quantification. Values of higher magnitude and estimation feasibility are quantified in the majority of studies, including the earliest of studies conducted in the 2000s and 2010s. Additionally, some values of higher magnitude but low feasibility in the earliest of studies have become quantifiable in recent years. There are some values with low average system-wide levels but very high magnitude in specific locations or hours. The value magnitude in some cases can be tied to DPV penetration with low value in areas with little congestion and/or low penetration and vice versa. In these cases, values that are easier to quantify are often incorporated, while those that are more difficult are often addressed via a placeholder value. The placeholder value is paired with a discussion around data needs and methods to improve future estimates, as well as a conversation about when these value categories may increase in magnitude and necessitate more rigorous quantification. This brief summarizes findings from two meta-analyses of VoS studies that took place between 2005 and 2018, as well as findings from four additional studies published from 2018 to 2023. Table ES-1 summarizes the various value and cost categories included in each respective study and whether they were quantified, discussed, or omitted. Values such as avoided energy, capacity, transmission capacity, line losses, and avoided environmental costs are quantified in every study. Some categories were deemed harder to quantify and less impactful at the time of the study, so they were discussed but not quantified (e.g., ancillary services). Other categories, including many at the distribution level, were very locationally and/or temporally specific and dependent on high DPV penetration. These were sometimes quantified and at other times discussed. Notably, when it came to utility costs, integration costs were discussed in all cases, though they were deemed to have a small impact. Other utility costs were omitted for the most part; however, the utility-commissioned study (by NorthWestern Energy in Montana) included both lost utility revenue and programmatic/administrative cost categories. While there are some similarities across studies, each had fairly unique methods that are detailed in the body of this brief.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (Q P ) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, Q P is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of Q P can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of Q P across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of Q P on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of Q P climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m -2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m -2 . Peak Q P values of approximately 4 W m -2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the Q P during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without Q P during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the Q P may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, Q P has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Absorption Correction for Reliable Pair Distribution Functions from Low Energy X-ray Sources

This paper explores the development and testing of a simple absorption correction model for processing powder X-ray diffraction data from Debye−Scherrer geometry laboratory X-ray experiments. This may be used as a preprocessing step before using PDFGETX3 to obtain reliable pair distribution functions (PDFs). Various experimental and theoretical methods for estimating μR were explored, and the most appropriate μR values for correction were identified for different capillary diameters and X-ray beam sizes. We identify operational ranges of μR where a reasonable signal-to-noise ratio is possible after correction. A user-friendly software package, DIFFPY.LABPDFPROC, is presented that can help estimate μR and perform absorption corrections with a rapid calculation for efficient processing.

Absorption↗