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DOE OSTI2020

Constraining physical models at gigabar pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative infor mation. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. As a result, the goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

RELICS: Properties of z ≥ 5.5 Galaxies Inferred from Spitzer and Hubble Imaging, Including A Candidate z ~ 6.8 Strong [O iii] emitter

We present constraints on the physical properties (including stellar mass, age, and star formation rate) of 207 6 ≲ z ≲ 8 galaxy candidates from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) and Spitzer-RELICS surveys. We measure photometry using T-PHOT and perform spectral energy distribution fitting using EA z Y and BAGPIPES. Of the 207 candidates for which we could successfully measure (or place limits on) Spitzer fluxes, 23 were demoted to likely z < 4. Among the high- z candidates, we find intrinsic stellar masses between 1 × 10 6 M ⊙ and 4 × 10 9 M ⊙ , and rest-frame UV absolute magnitudes between -22.6 and -14.5 mag. While our sample is mostly comprised of galaxies, it extends to . Our sample spans ~4 orders of magnitude in stellar mass and star formation rates, and exhibits ages that range from maximally young to maximally old. We highlight 11 z ≥ 6.5 galaxies with detections in Spitzer/IRAC imaging, several of which show evidence for some combination of evolved stellar populations, large contributions of nebular emission lines, and/or dust. Among these is PLCKG287+32-2013, one of the brightest z ~ 7 candidates known (AB mag 24.9 at 1.6 μ m) with a Spitzer 3.6 μ m flux excess suggesting strong [O iii ] + H- β emission (~1000 Å rest-frame equivalent width). We discuss the possible uses and limits of our sample and present a public catalog of Hubble + Spitzer photometry along with physical property estimates for all objects in the sample. Because of their apparent brightnesses, high redshifts, and variety of stellar populations, these objects are excellent targets for follow-up with the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constraining Physical Models at Gigabar Pressures

High-energy-density (HED) experiments in convergent geometry are able to test physical models at pressures beyond hundreds of millions of atmospheres. The measurements from these experiments are generally highly integrated and require unique analysis techniques to procure quantitative information. This work describes a methodology to constrain the physics in convergent HED experiments by adapting the methods common to many other fields of physics. As an example, a mechanical model of an imploding shell is constrained by data from a thin-shelled direct-drive exploding-pusher experiment on the OMEGA Laser System using Bayesian inference, resulting in the reconstruction of the shell dynamics and energy transfer during the implosion. The model is tested by analyzing synthetic data from a 1-D hydrodynamics code and is sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo to generate the posterior distributions of the model parameters. The goal of this work is to demonstrate a general methodology that can be used to draw conclusions from a wide variety of HED experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

C 13 ( n , 2 n γ ) C 12 γ -ray production in the 14–16 MeV incident neutron energy range

We report γ-ray emission from 12 C and 13 C samples irradiated with deuterium-tritium fusion neutrons was experimentally measured at the Omega Laser Facility and at the Ohio University Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. The intent of these measurements was to determine the feasibility of using 13 C-based plastic ablators with embedded 12 C layers for “dark mix” diagnosis of inertial confinement fusion implosions. Spectrally resolved measurements at Ohio University identified significant 4.44-MeV γ-ray emission from the 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 reaction channel. The recorded 4.44-MeV 13 C signal was compared against emission from an identically irradiated 12 C target with known 12 C(n, n'γ) 12 C-L1 cross section, which resulted in an average 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 cross section of 117 ± 17 mb over the incident neutron energy distribution range from 14.4 to 15.8 MeV. Integrated 13C γ -ray signals above 2.9 MeV recorded with the Gas Cherenkov Detector at Omega exceeded MCNP6.1 predictions by a factor of 3. The additional signal was attributed to 4.44-MeV γs resulting in an inferred 13 C(n, 2nγ) 12 C-L1 cross section of 95 ± 11 mb at 14.1-MeV average incident neutron energy. As a result, the 13 C-based “dark mix” diagnostic concept was deemed infeasible.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Disentangling Beam Losses in The Fermilab Main Injector Enclosure Using Real-Time Edge AI

The Fermilab Main Injector enclosure houses two accelerators, the Main Injector and Recycler Ring. During normal operation, high intensity proton beams exist simultaneously in both. The two accelerators share the same beam loss monitors (BLM) and monitoring system. Deciphering the origin of any of the 260 BLM readings is often difficult. The (Accelerator) Real-time Edge AI for Distributed Systems project, or READS, has developed an AI/ML model, and implemented it on fast FPGA hardware, that disentangles mixed beam losses and attributes probabilities to each BLM as to which machine(s) the loss originated from in real-time. The model inferences are then streamed to the Fermilab accelerator controls network (ACNET) where they are available for operators and experts alike to aid in tuning the machines.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization

Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.

Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coordinated neutron and X-ray computed tomography of meteorites: Detection and distribution of hydrogen-bearing materials

The presence and distribution of hydrogen-bearing materials in meteorites are important constraints on processes in the early solar system, and the delivery of volatile constituents to growing planets. Here, in this paper, we show that coordinated neutron and X-ray computed tomography, NXCT, can reveal the presence and distributions of hydrogen-bearing materials in meteorites, and thus help constrain the presence and actions of water in the early solar system. NXCT is nearly nondestructive of meteorite samples. Neutron fluence in NXCT is approximately seven orders of magnitude less than in typical instrumental neutron activation analysis, and so produces little residual radioactivity and currently undetectable changes in isotope ratios. Heating during NXCT is minimal, but NXCT will overprint the record of cosmic ray exposure held in natural thermoluminescence. Two meteorites were examined. EET 87503 is a howardite, a regolith breccia inferred to be from the asteroid 4 Vesta, and contains fragments of eucrite basalt, diogenite pyroxenite, and H-rich carbonaceous chondrites. With NXCT, the chondrite fragments within the meteorite piece can be clearly located and characterized, in preparation for possible extraction and detailed analyses. Graves Nunataks (GRA) 06100 is a CR2 chondrite meteorite that contains abundant iron metal and H-bearing silicates from aqueous alteration. In NXCT, H-bearing altered material is clearly distinguished from metal, and its distribution in three dimensions is revealed as a constraint on the processes of alteration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Joint estimation of biogeochemical model parameters from multiple experiments: A bayesian approach applied to mercury methylation

Here, to characterize complex biogeochemical systems, results from multiple experiments, where each targets a specific subprocess, are commonly combined. The resulting datasets are interpreted through the calibration of biogeochemical models for process inference and predictions. Commonly used calibration approaches of fitting datasets from individual experiments to subprocess models one at a time is prone to missing information shared between datasets and incomplete uncertainty propagation. We propose a Bayesian joint-fitting scheme addressing the above-mentioned concerns by jointly fitting all the available datasets, thus calibrating the entire biogeochemical model in one go using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The identification of null spaces in the parameter distributions from MCMC guided the simplification of certain subprocess models. For example, fast kinetic sorption was replaced by equilibrium sorption, and Monod demethylation was replaced by first-order demethylation. Joint fitting of datasets resulted in complete uncertainty propagation with parameter estimates informed by all available data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analytic solutions for Asay foil trajectories with implications for ejecta source models and mass measurements

We consider the trajectory of an Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for scenarios where ejecta are produced at a singly shocked planar surface and fly ballistically through a perfect vacuum to the sensor. We do so by building upon a previously established mathematical framework derived for the analytic study of stationary sensors. First, we derive the momentum conservation equation for the problem, in a form amenable to accelerating sensors, in terms of a generic ejecta source model. The result is an integrodifferential equation of motion for the foil trajectory. This equation yields an easily calculable closed-form implicit solution for the foil trajectory in instant-production scenarios. From there, we derive a boundary condition that particle velocity distributions must satisfy if their associated foil trajectories are to exhibit a smooth initial acceleration, as occurs in some experiments. This condition is identical to one derived previously from a consideration of piezoelectric voltage data obtained in similar experiments. We also compare techniques for inferring accumulated ejecta masses from foil trajectories, first by deriving the exact solution, and then by quantifying the error imposed by a frequently used approximate solution (both subject to the assumption of instantaneous ejecta production). Finally, we examine the common practice of presenting inferred cumulative ejecta masses as a function of implied ejecta velocity, establishing the conditions under which this methodology is most meaningful.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter inference with non-linear galaxy clustering: accounting for theoretical uncertainties

ABSTRACT We implement euclidemulator (version 1), an emulator for the non-linear correction of the matter power spectrum, into the Markov chain Monte Carlo forecasting code montepython. We compare the performance of halofit, hmcode, and euclidemulator1, both at the level of power spectrum prediction and at the level of posterior probability distributions of the cosmological parameters, for different cosmological models and different galaxy power spectrum wavenumber cut-offs. We confirm that the choice of the power spectrum predictor has a non-negligible effect on the computed sensitivities when doing cosmological parameter forecasting, even for a conservative wavenumber cut-off of $0.2\, h\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$. We find that euclidemulator1 is on average up to 17 per cent more sensitive to the cosmological parameters than the other two codes, with the most significant improvements being for the Hubble parameter of up to 42 per cent and the equation of state of dark energy of up to 26 per cent, depending on the case. In addition, we point out that the choice of the power spectrum predictor contributes to the risk of computing a significantly biased mean cosmology when doing parameter estimations. For the four tested scenarios we find biases, averaged over the cosmological parameters, of between 0.5σ and 2σ (from below 1σ up to 6σ for individual parameters). This paper provides a proof of concept that this risk can be mitigated by taking a well-tailored theoretical uncertainty into account as this allows to reduce the bias by a factor of 2 to 5, depending on the case under consideration, while keeping posterior credibility contours small: the standard deviations are amplified by a factor of ≤1.4 in all cases.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Chandra measurements of gas homogeneity and turbulence at intermediate radii in the Perseus Cluster

ABSTRACT We present a Chandra study of surface brightness fluctuations in the diffuse intracluster medium of the Perseus Cluster. Our study utilizes deep, archival imaging of the cluster core as well as a new mosaic of 29 short $\, 5\,$-ks observations extending in eight different directions out to radii of $r_{500} \sim 2.2\, r_{2500}$. Under the assumption that the distribution of densities at a given radius is log-normally distributed, two important quantities can be derived from the width of the log-normal density distribution on a given spatial scale: the density bias, that is equal to the square root of the clumping factor C; and the one-component turbulent velocity, vk,1D. We forward-model all contributions to the measured surface brightness, including astrophysical and particle background components, and account for the Poisson nature of the measured signal. Measuring the distribution of surface brightness fluctuations in 1 arcmin2 regions, spanning the radial range $0.3\rm {-}2.2\, r_{2500}$ ($7.8\rm {-}57.3\,$ arcmin), we find a small to moderate average density bias of around $3{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ at radii below $1.6\, r_{2500}$. We also infer an average turbulent velocity at these radii of V1D < 400 km s−1. Direct confirmation of our results on turbulent velocities inferred from surface brightness fluctuations should be possible using the X-ray calorimeter spectrometers to be flown aboard the XRISM and Athena observatories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Secular outflows from 3D MHD hypermassive neutron star accretion disc systems

Magnetized hypermassive neutron stars (HMNSs) have been proposed as a way for neutron star mergers to produce high electron fraction, high-velocity ejecta, as required by kilonova models to explain the observed light curve of GW170817. The HMNS drives outflows through neutrino energy deposition and mechanical oscillations, and raises the electron fraction of outflows through neutrino interactions before collapsing to a black hole (BH). Here, in this study, we perform 3D numerical simulations of HMNS–torus systems in ideal magnetohydrodynamics, using a leakage/absorption scheme for neutrino transport, the nuclear APR equation of state, and Newtonian self-gravity, with a pseudo-Newtonian potential added after BH formation. Due to the uncertainty in the HMNS collapse time, we choose two different parametrized times to induce collapse. We also explore two initial magnetic field geometries in the torus, and evolve the systems until the outflows diminish significantly ($\sim\!\! 1\!\! - \!\!2\ \mathrm{s}$). We find bluer, faster outflows as compared to equivalent BH–torus systems, producing M ∼ 10 −3 M ⊙ of ejecta with Y e ≥ 0.25 and v ≥ 0.25c by the simulation end. Approximately half the outflows are launched in disc winds at times $t\lesssim 500 \ \mathrm{ms}$, with a broad distribution of electron fractions and velocities, depending on the initial condition. The remaining outflows are thermally driven, characterized by lower velocities and electron fractions. Nucleosynthesis with tracer particles shows patterns resembling solar abundances in all models. Although outflows from our simulations do not match those inferred from two-component modelling of the GW170817 kilonova, self-consistent multidimensional detailed kilonova models are required to determine whether our outflows can power the blue kilonova.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining the Galactic bar using the M92 stellar stream

Stellar streams are excellent probes of the gravitational potential in which they evolve. In the Milky Way (MW), globular cluster (GC) streams are routinely used to infer properties about time-dependent perturbations of the underlying potential. This implies that streams with Galactocentric radii small enough to be perturbed by the MW bar should offer constraints on it, such as its pattern speed, which currently has a wide range of values reported in the literature and is important when studying stellar kinematics. The GC M92 has a small pericentre and should be affected by the bar. It has a diffuse stellar stream, but confirming stream members has previously been hindered by a lack of spectroscopic data. In this paper, we use Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations together with photometric and astrometric data to obtain spectroscopic members of the M92 stream for the first time. We identify a clear spatial distribution and gradients in distance moduli, proper motions, and radial velocities that confirm the stream's existence. We compare the observed stream to mock streams generated in different barred potentials and estimate the MW bar's pattern speed $Î©= 29.1^{+0.7}_{-0.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ and $\dot Î©= 0.7^{+3.5}_{-2.3}$ km s$^{-1}$ kpc$^{-1}$ Gyr$^{-1}$. This is the first time a stellar stream is used to probabilistically infer these bar properties, and it opens up an exciting realm of inner Galactic potential characterisation using stellar streams.

Byström, Amanda [Edinburgh U., Inst. Astron.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic dipole γ-ray strength functions in the crossover from spherical to deformed neodymium isotopes

We calculate the magnetic dipole $\gamma$-ray strength functions in a chain of even-mass neodymium isotopes $^{144-152}$Nd in the framework of the configuration-interaction (CI) shell model. We infer the strength function by applying the maximum entropy method (MEM) to the exact imaginary-time response function calculated with the shell-model Monte Carlo (SMMC) method. The success of the MEM depends on the choice of a good strength function as a prior distribution. We investigate two choices for the prior strength function: the static path approximation (SPA) and the quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA). We find that the QRPA is a better approximation at low temperatures (i.e., near the ground state), while the SPA is a better choice at finite temperatures. We identify a low-energy enhancement (LEE) in the MEM deexcitation $M1$ strength functions of the even-mass neodymium isotopes and compare with recent experimental results for the total deexcitation $\gamma$-ray strength functions. The LEE is already seen in the SPA strength function but not in the QRPA strength function, indicating the importance of large-amplitude static fluctuations around the mean field in reproducing the LEE. Our method is currently the only one which can reproduce LEE in heavy open-shell nuclei where conventional CI shell model calculations are prohibited. With the onset of deformation as number of neutrons increases along the chain of neodymium isotopes, we observe that some of the LEE strength transfers to a low-energy excitation, which we interpret as a finite-temperature ``scissors'' mode. Here, we also observe a finite-temperature spin-flip mode.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Three-dimensional Collapse of a Rapidly Rotating 16 M ⊙ Star

I report on the three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic evolution of a rapidly rotating 16 M ⊙ star to iron core collapse. For the first time, I follow the 3D evolution of the angular momentum (AM) distribution in the iron core and convective shell burning regions for the final 10 minutes up to and including gravitational instability and core collapse. In 3D, convective regions show efficient AM transport that leads to an AM profile that differs in shape and magnitude from MESA within a few shell convective turnover timescales. For different progenitor models, such as those with tightly coupled Si/O convective shells, efficient AM transport in 3D simulations could lead to a significantly different AM distribution in the stellar interior affecting estimates of the natal neutron star or black hole spin. The results suggest that 3D AM transport in convective and rotating shell burning regions are critical components in models of massive stars and could qualitatively alter the explosion outcome and inferred compact remnant properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

QuantumNAT: quantum noise-aware training with noise injection, quantization and normalization

Parameterized Quantum Circuits (PQC) are promising towards quantum advantage on near-term quantum hardware. However, due to the large quantum noises (errors), the performance of PQC models has a severe degradation on real quantum devices. Take Quantum Neural Network (QNN) as an example, the accuracy gap between noise-free simulation and noisy results on IBMQ-Yorktown for MNIST-4 classification is over 60%. Existing noise mitigation methods are general ones without leveraging unique characteristics of PQC; on the other hand, existing PQC work does not consider noise effect. To this end, we present QuantumNAT, a PQC-specific framework to perform noise-aware optimizations in both training and inference stages to improve robustness. We experimentally observe that the effect of quantum noise to PQC measurement outcome is a linear map from noise-free outcome with a scaling and a shift factor. Motivated by that, we propose post-measurement normalization to mitigate the feature distribution differences between noise-free and noisy scenarios. Furthermore, to improve the robustness against noise, we propose noise injection to the training process by inserting quantum error gates to PQC according to realistic noise models of quantum hardware. Lastly, post-measurement quantization is introduced to quantize the measurement outcomes to discrete values, achieving the denoising effect. Extensive experiments on 8 classification tasks using 6 quantum devices demonstrate that QuantumNAT improves accuracy by up to 43%, and achieves over 94% 2-class, 80% 4-class, and 34% 10-class classification accuracy measured on real quantum computers. The code for construction and noise-aware training of PQC is available in the TorchQuantum library.

Wang, Hanrui↗