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At least 577 records · Page 32

Developing a Methodology for Eliciting Subjective Probability Estimates During Expert Evaluations of Safety Interventions: Application for Bayesian Belief Networks

The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) has defined several products that will potentially modify airline and/or ATC operations, enhance aircraft systems, and improve the identification of potential hazardous situations within the National Airspace System (NAS). Consequently, there is a need to develop methods for evaluating the potential safety benefit of each of these intervention products so that resources can be effectively invested to produce the judgments to develop Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN's) that model the potential impact that specific interventions may have. Specifically, the present report summarizes methodologies for improving the elicitation of probability estimates during expert evaluations of AvSP products for use in BBN's. The work involved joint efforts between Professor James Luxhoj from Rutgers University and researchers at the University of Illinois. The Rutgers' project to develop BBN's received funding by NASA entitled "Probabilistic Decision Support for Evaluating Technology Insertion and Assessing Aviation Safety System Risk." The proposed project was funded separately but supported the existing Rutgers' program.

Wiegmann, Douglas A.a↗

Assessment of the 60 Km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) with Near Real-Time Aircraft Reports

NASA is developing the Center-TBACON Advisory System (CTAS), a set of Air Traffic Management (ATM) Decision Support Tools (DST) to enable controllers to increase airspace capacity and flight efficiency. A crucial component of the CTAS, or any ATM DST, is the computation of the time-of-flight of aircraft along flight path segments which requires accurate knowledge of the wind through which the aircraft are flying. CTAS currently uses wind information from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC), a numerical prediction model run operationally by the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). There exists near real-time wind observations from commercial aircraft that can be used to increase the accuracy of the RUC wind forecasts via the FAA Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Terminal Winds (TW) algorithm. This report presents a study based on the application of the ITWS TW algorithm as an improvement to the baseline RUC product. Terminal Winds generally does not support the full Center airspace; the domain of the prototype MIT/LLITWS TW system was increased to cover the Denver Center airspace to support this study. This study has three goals: 1) determine the errors in the baseline 60-kilometer resolution RUC forecast wind fields relative to the needs of en route DSTs such as CTAS; 2) determine the benefit of using the TW algorithm to refine the RUC forecast wind fields with near real-tlme Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System (MDCRS) aircraft reports, and 3) identify factors that influence wind field errors in order to improve accuracy and estimate errors in real time. The data for this study were collected over a one-year period for the Denver Center airspace and over one miIlion verification observations were used. This study is part of a larger effort funded by NASA which includes the NOAA/FSL.

Cole, R. E.↗

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Challenges in building intelligent systems for space mission operations

The purpose here is to provide a top-level look at the stewardship functions performed in space operations, and to identify the major issues and challenges that must be addressed to build intelligent systems that can realistically support operations functions. The focus is on decision support activities involving monitoring, state assessment, goal generation, plan generation, and plan execution. The bottom line is that problem solving in the space operations domain is a very complex process. A variety of knowledge constructs, representations, and reasoning processes are necessary to support effective human problem solving. Emulating these kinds of capabilities in intelligent systems offers major technical challenges that the artificial intelligence community is only beginning to address.

Hartman, Wayne↗

Use of Remote Sensing for Decision Support in Africa

Over the past 30 years, the scientific community has learned a great deal about the Earth as an integrated system. Much of this research has been enabled by the development of remote sensing technologies and their operation from space. Decision makers in many nations have begun to make use of remote sensing data for resource management, policy making, and sustainable development planning. This paper makes an attempt to provide a survey of the current state of the requirements and use of remote sensing for sustainable development in Africa. This activity has shown that there are not many climate data ready decision support tools already functioning in Africa. There are, however, endusers with known requirements who could benefit from remote sensing data.

Policelli, Frederick S.↗

Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Monitoring Drought Conditions in the Navajo Nation Using NASA Earth Observations

The Navajo Nation, a 65,700 sq km Native American territory located in the southwestern United States, has been increasingly impacted by severe drought events and changes in climate. These events are coupled with a lack of domestic water infrastructure and economic resources, leaving approximately one-third of the population without access to potable water in their homes. Current methods of monitoring drought are dependent on state-based monthly Standardized Precipitation Index value maps calculated by the Western Regional Climate Center. However, these maps do not provide the spatial resolution needed to illustrate differences in drought severity across the vast Nation. To better understand and monitor drought events and drought regime changes in the Navajo Nation, this project created a geodatabase of historical climate information specific to the area, and a decision support tool to calculate average Standardized Precipitation Index values for user-specified areas. The tool and geodatabase use Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Monitor (GPM) observed precipitation data and Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model modeled historical precipitation data, as well as NASA's modeled Land Data Assimilation Systems deep soil moisture, evaporation, and transpiration data products. The geodatabase and decision support tool will allow resource managers in the Navajo Nation to utilize current and future NASA Earth observation data for increased decision-making capacity regarding future climate change impact on water resources.

Ly, Vickie↗

CLARAty Functional-Layer Software

Functional-layer software for the Coupled Layer Architecture for Robotics Autonomy (CLARAty) is being developed. [CLARAty was described in Coupled-Layer Architecture for Advanced Software for Robots (NPO-21218), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48. To recapitulate: CLARAty was proposed to improve the modularity of robotic software while tightening the coupling between planning/execution and control subsystems. Whereas prior robotic software architectures have typically contained three levels, the CLARAty architecture contains two layers: a decision layer and a functional layer.] Just as an operating system provides abstraction from computational hardware, the CLARAty functional-layer software provides for abstraction for the different robotic systems. The functional-layer software establishes interrelated, object-oriented hierarchies that contain active and passive objects that represent the different levels of system abstrations and components. The functional-layer software is decomposed into a set of reusable core components and a set of extended components that adapt the reusable set to specific hardware implementations. The reusable components (a) provide behavior and interface definitions and implementations of basic functionality, (b) provide local executive capabilities, (c) manage local resources, and (d) support state and resource queries by the decision layer. Software for robotic systems can be built by use of these components.

Nesnas, Issa↗

A Multi-Satellite Assimilation and Modeling Platform to Construct a Global and Complete view of the Hydrologic Cycle

What captivates me about the research field of satellite remote sensing of the earth system science is the opportunity to help human beings by addressing challenging questions related to the current and future availability of natural resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial needs. For example, a continuously varying climate poses a threat to the water resource, not only in developing countries, but also in economically well-developed regions, creating the urgent need to characterize and predict its spatial and temporal availability. Specifically, my curiosity is driven by the challenge of merging cutting-edge space technology and earth observations (i.e., remote sensing) with state-of-the-art models for the purpose of improving our scientific knowledge about the variability and the change of the hydrologic cycle.The only practical way to observe the land surface processes (e.g., hydrologic cycle) on continental to global scales is via satellite remote sensing. Though remote sensing can make spatially comprehensive measurements of various components of the land surface system, it cannot provide direct information on the entire system, and the measurements represent only a snapshot in time. Physical based models may be used to continuously predict the temporal and spatial earth processes, but these predictions are often poor, due to model initialization, parameter and meteorological forcing errors, and inadequate model physics and/or resolution. Thus, an attractive prospect is to combine the strengths of land surface models and observations (and minimize the weaknesses of both) to provide a superior land surface state estimate. This is the goal of land surface data assimilation. Data assimilation provides a better estimate of the environmental states than either models or observations could individually do. The broad concept of data assimilation can be applied to various disciplines such as hydrology, ecology, environmental hazards, agriculture and economy.My research is targeted to integrating multiple satellite information having multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation within today's state-of-the-art hydrologic models. Multi-sensor and multi-resolution assimilation techniques represent a necessary milestone in future earth science applications because they offer the capability of comprehensively integrating disparate types of earth observations via deep-learning techniques. A multi-satellite assimilation and modeling platform will ultimately provide a robust and complete dataset to more fully understand earth's dynamics. In fact, the multi-satellite assimilation platforms build a comprehensive description of the earth processes that is geared toward accurately representing the complexity of natural and anthropogenic interactions in land surface processes. Most importantly, these platforms are suitable as decision support tools for applications across different aspects of earth system science.My recent work has focused on recent multi-sensor data assimilation techniques targeted at improving snow, soil moisture, groundwater, and terrestrial water storage hydrological states.

Girotto, Manuela↗

Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) Metric: Partnerships, Applications, and Key Enhancements

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric is a holistic measure of transportation systems performance that quantifies the ability of individuals to reach destinations in a cost-efficient and energy-efficient manner. This presentation highlights recent partnerships that have advanced the adoption of MEP as a decision-support tool by various agencies, stakeholders, and researchers. Applications include evaluating multimodal accessibility, comparing system-level energy impacts, and informing infrastructure investment strategies. Key enhancements to the metric - such as expanded regional applications and incorporation of emerging technologies - are also discussed. Together, these efforts highlight the potential of MEP to inform data-driven decisions that shape future transportation systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Aviation Weather Information Communications Study (AWIN)

This two part study examines the communication requirements to provide weather information in the cockpit as well as public and private communication systems available to address the requirements. Ongoing research projects combined with user needs for weather related information are used to identify and describe potential weather products that address decision support in three time frames: Far-Term Strategic, Near-Term Strategic and Tactical. Data requirements of these future products are identified and quantified. Communications systems and technologies available in the public as well as private sector are analyzed to identify potential solutions. Recommendations for further research identify cost, performance, and safety benefits to justify the investment. The study concludes that not all weather information has the same level of urgency to safety-of-flight and some information is more critical to one category of flight than another. Specific weather products need to be matched with communication systems with appropriate levels of reliability to support the criticality of the information. Available bandwidth for highly critical information should be preserved and dedicated to safety. Meanwhile, systems designed for in-flight-entertainment and other passenger/crew services could be used to support less critical information that is used only for planning and economic decision support.

Ball, J. W.↗

Cognitive engineering models in space systems

NASA space systems, including mission operations on the ground and in space, are complex, dynamic, predominantly automated systems in which the human operator is a supervisory controller. The human operator monitors and fine-tunes computer-based control systems and is responsible for ensuring safe and efficient system operation. In such systems, the potential consequences of human mistakes and errors may be very large, and low probability of such events is likely. Thus, models of cognitive functions in complex systems are needed to describe human performance and form the theoretical basis of operator workstation design, including displays, controls, and decision support aids. The operator function model represents normative operator behavior-expected operator activities given current system state. The extension of the theoretical structure of the operator function model and its application to NASA Johnson mission operations and space station applications is discussed.

Mitchell, Christine M.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2007

Topics include: Wireless Measurement of Contact and Motion Between Contact Surfaces; Wireless Measurement of Rotation and Displacement Rate; Portable Microleak-Detection System; Free-to-Roll Testing of Airplane Models in Wind Tunnels; Cryogenic Shrouds for Testing Thermal-Insulation Panels; Optoelectronic System Measures Distances to Multiple Targets; Tachometers Derived From a Brushless DC Motor; Algorithm-Based Fault Tolerance for Numerical Subroutines; Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions; DSN Resource Scheduling; Distributed Operations Planning; Phase-Oriented Gear Systems; Freeze Tape Casting of Functionally Graded Porous Ceramics; Electrophoretic Deposition on Porous Non- Conductors; Two Devices for Removing Sludge From Bioreactor Wastewater; Portable Unit for Metabolic Analysis; Flash Diffusivity Technique Applied to Individual Fibers; System for Thermal Imaging of Hot Moving Objects; Large Solar-Rejection Filter; Improved Readout Scheme for SQUID-Based Thermometry; Error Rates and Channel Capacities in Multipulse PPM; Two Mathematical Models of Nonlinear Vibrations; Simpler Adaptive Selection of Golomb Power-of- Two Codes; VCO PLL Frequency Synthesizers for Spacecraft Transponders; Wide Tuning Capability for Spacecraft Transponders; Adaptive Deadband Synchronization for a Spacecraft Formation; Analysis of Performance of Stereoscopic-Vision Software; Estimating the Inertia Matrix of a Spacecraft; Spatial Coverage Planning for Exploration Robots; and Increasing the Life of a Xenon-Ion Spacecraft Thruster.

Source record↗

PAIRS, The GIS-Based Incident Response System for Pennsylvania, and NASA

Over the past several years the Pennsylvania Departments of Environmental Protection (DEP), Health (DOH), and Agriculture (PDA) built the GIs-based Pennsylvania West Nile Surveillance System. That system has become a model for collecting data that has a field component, laboratory component, reporting and mapping component, and a public information component. Given the success of the West Nile Virus System and the events of September 11, 2001, DEP then embarked on the development of the Pennsylvania Incident Response System, or PAIRS. PAIRS is an effective GIs-based approach to providing a system for response to incidents of any kind, including terrorism because it is building upon the existing experience, infrastructure and databases that were successfully developed to respond to the West Nile Virus by DEP, DOH, and PDA. The proposed system can be described as one that supports data acquisition, laboratory forensics, decision making/response, and communications. Decision makers will have tools to view and analyze data from various sources and, at the same time, to communicate with the large numbers of people responding to the same incident. Recent collaborations with NASA partners are creating mechanisms for the PAIRS system to incorporate space-based and other remote sensing geophysical parameters relevant to public health assessment and management, such as surface temperatures, precipitation, land cover/land use change, and humidity. This presentation will describe the PAIRS system and outline the Pennsylvania-NASA collaboration for integration of space-based data into the PAIRS system.

Conrad, Eric↗

Supporting NASA Facilities Through GIS

The NASA GIS Team supports NASA facilities and partners in the analysis of spatial data. Geographic Information System (G[S) is an integration of computer hardware, software, and personnel linking topographic, demographic, utility, facility, image, and other geo-referenced data. The system provides a graphic interface to relational databases and supports decision making processes such as planning, design, maintenance and repair, and emergency response.

Ingham, Mary E.↗

An Automated Flying-Insect-Detection System

An automated flying-insect-detection system (AFIDS) was developed as a proof-of-concept instrument for real-time detection and identification of flying insects. This type of system has use in public health and homeland security decision support, agriculture and military pest management, and/or entomological research. Insects are first lured into the AFIDS integrated sphere by insect attractants. Once inside the sphere, the insect's wing beats cause alterations in light intensity that is detected by a photoelectric sensor. Following detection, the insects are encouraged (with the use of a small fan) to move out of the sphere and into a designated insect trap where they are held for taxonomic identification or serological testing. The acquired electronic wing beat signatures are preprocessed (Fourier transformed) in real-time to display a periodic signal. These signals are sent to the end user where they are graphically displayed. All AFIDS data are pre-processed in the field with the use of a laptop computer equipped with LABVIEW. The AFIDS software can be programmed to run continuously or at specific time intervals when insects are prevalent. A special DC-restored transimpedance amplifier reduces the contributions of low-frequency background light signals, and affords approximately two orders of magnitude greater AC gain than conventional amplifiers. This greatly increases the signal-to-noise ratio and enables the detection of small changes in light intensity. The AFIDS light source consists of high-intensity Al GaInP light-emitting diodes (LEDs). The AFIDS circuitry minimizes brightness fluctuations in the LEDs and when integrated with an integrating sphere, creates a diffuse uniform light field. The insect wing beats isotropically scatter the diffuse light in the sphere and create wing beat signatures that are detected by the sensor. This configuration minimizes variations in signal associated with insect flight orientation.

Vann, Timi↗

J-2X Abort System Development

The J-2X is an expendable liquid hydrogen (LH2)/liquid oxygen (LOX) gas generator cycle rocket engine that is currently being designed as the primary upper stage propulsion element for the new NASA Ares vehicle family. The J-2X engine will contain abort logic that functions as an integral component of the Ares vehicle abort system. This system is responsible for detecting and responding to conditions indicative of impending Loss of Mission (LOM), Loss of Vehicle (LOV), and/or catastrophic Loss of Crew (LOC) failure events. As an earth orbit ascent phase engine, the J-2X is a high power density propulsion element with non-negligible risk of fast propagation rate failures that can quickly lead to LOM, LOV, and/or LOC events. Aggressive reliability requirements for manned Ares missions and the risk of fast propagating J-2X failures dictate the need for on-engine abort condition monitoring and autonomous response capability as well as traditional abort agents such as the vehicle computer, flight crew, and ground control not located on the engine. This paper describes the baseline J-2X abort subsystem concept of operations, as well as the development process for this subsystem. A strategy that leverages heritage system experience and responds to an evolving engine design as well as J-2X specific test data to support abort system development is described. The utilization of performance and failure simulation models to support abort system sensor selection, failure detectability and discrimination studies, decision threshold definition, and abort system performance verification and validation is outlined. The basis for abort false positive and false negative performance constraints is described. Development challenges associated with information shortfalls in the design cycle, abort condition coverage and response assessment, engine-vehicle interface definition, and abort system performance verification and validation are also discussed.

Santi, Louis M.↗

Utilizing Remote Sensing Data to Ascertain Soil Moisture Applications and Air Quality Conditions

Recognizing the significance of NASA remote sensing Earth science data in monitoring and better understanding our planet's natural environment, NASA Earth Applied Sciences has implemented the 'Decision Support Through Earth Science Research Results' program. Several applications support systems through collaborations with benefiting organizations have been implemented. The Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has participated in this program on two projects (one complete, one ongoing), and has had opportune ad hoc collaborations utilizing NASA Earth science data. GES DISC's understanding of Earth science missions and resulting data and information enables the GES DISC to identify challenges that come with bringing science data to research applications. In this presentation we describe applications research projects utilizing NASA Earth science data and a variety of resulting GES DISC applications support system project experiences. In addition, defining metrics that really evaluate success will be exemplified.

Leptoukh, Gregory↗