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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Determination of model structure and parameters of an airplane from pre- and post-stall flight data

A procedure for airplane model structure determination from flight data based on modified stepwise regression (MSR), several decision criteria and postulated aerodynamic model equations is presented. The MSR is constructed to force a linear model for the aerodynamic coefficient first, then select significant nonlinear terms and reject nonsignificant terms from the model. In addition to the statistical criteria in the stepwise regression, the prediction sum of squares (PRESS) criterion and analysis of residuals are examined for the selection of an adequate model. The procedure is used in examples with simulated and real flight data. It is shown that the MSR performs better than the ordinary stepwise regression and that the technique can be also applied to the large amplitude maneuvers.

Klein, V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Enhancing Global Competitiveness: Benchmarking Airline Operational Performance in Highly Regulated Environments

Enhancing competitiveness in the global airline industry is at the forefront of attention with airlines, government, and the flying public. The seemingly unchecked growth of major airline alliances is heralded as an enhancement to global competition. However, like many mega-conglomerates, mega-airlines will face complications driven by size regardless of the many recitations of enhanced efficiency. Outlined herein is a conceptual model to serve as a decision tool for policy-makers, managers, and consumers of airline services. This model is developed using public data for the United States (U.S.) major airline industry available from the U/S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and other public and private sector sources. Data points include number of accidents, pilot deviations, operational performance indicators, flight problems, and other factors. Data from these sources provide opportunity to develop a model based on a complex dot product equation of two vectors. A row vector is weighted for importance by a key informant panel of government, industry, and consumer experts, while a column vector is established with the factor value. The resulting equation, known as the national Airline Quality Rating (AQR), where Q is quality, C is weight, and V is the value of the variables, is stated Q=C[i1-19] x V[i1-19]. Looking at historical patterns of AQR results provides the basis for establishment of an industry benchmark for the purpose of enhancing airline operational performance. A 7 year average of overall operational performance provides the resulting benchmark indicator. Applications from this example can be applied to the many competitive environments of the global industry and assist policy-makers faced with rapidly changing regulatory challenges.

Bowen, Brent D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Energy-Optimized Path Planning for Uas in Varying Winds Via Reinforcement Learning

In this paper we propose a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for path planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to UAV path planning problems are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs need to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health, and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as reinforcement learning (RL) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. In this study, we compute UAV trajectories from a pre-determined starting position to a target cell within a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in any of the eight cardinal and inter-cardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The resultant UAV state is sampled from a probability distribution which accounts for the UAV’s action, local wind velocity, and the presence of obstacles or boundaries. As the unmanned airspace gets more complex due to multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance need to be made. Our Markov Decision Process (MDP) environment model can capture any combination of these in the optimization objective, making it novel compared to other work in the field.

trajectory planning↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVSE Characterization: V2G EVSE Comparison

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy EVs@Scale consortium Next-Generation Profiles project, results and analysis from the characterization of high-power conductive and wireless charging infrastructure are presented. This characterization is conducted over a wide range of direct current (DC) current and DC voltage operation for nominal test conditions and off-nominal test conditions. Test plans and procedures were developed to define the test configurations and requirements, measurement parameters, and test procedures used throughout testing. Results from a 2024 study conducted on electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) characterization by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) include two bi-directional vehicle-to-grid (V2G) capable EVSEs. These EVSE are referred to as V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10. Laboratory testing is conducted at nominal test conditions to characterize the power transfer capabilities, efficiency, power factor, and other power quality metrics of the two DC EVSEs capable of V2G bi-directional power transfer. Results from testing show the performance is consistent for V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10 when comparing charging to discharging performance, except for V2G-EVSE10 for power transfer when operating above 70% of the rated DC current. V2G-EVSE10 efficiency is >98% while charging and <91% while discharging at the same operating conditions, near maximum-rated current, at 300VDC. In contrast, V2G-EVSE9 results are consistent for charging and discharging. This EVSE is nearly 96% efficient while charging or discharging when operating over 50% of rated AC power. V2G EVSE performance is also characterized during off-nominal AC grid conditions involving AC voltage deviation (426 VAC to 518 VAC), AC frequency deviation of +2% (58.8 Hz to 61.2 Hz), and AC voltage harmonics injection. Many test conditions have little-to-no impact on performance characteristics of the two EVSEs; however, there are a few notable findings with significant power transfer capability impacts. AC voltage harmonics injection resulted in negative impacts on power quality attributes for both EVSEs, but with no impact on power transfer capability. Off-nominal AC voltage and frequency conditions resulted in unstable or lack of power transfer capability for both EVSEs. V2G-EVSE9 is unable to transfer power when AC voltage is >300V L-N. V2G-EVSE10 is unable to transfer power when AC frequency deviation exceeds +0.8%. V2G energy management system transient response and latency are quantified during laboratory testing. V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10 utilize cloud-based V2G energy management systems that command the power transfer level between the EVSE and EV. The latency and response characteristics of the entire systems (web-based user interface, V2G energy management system, cellular communications, and EVSE response) are quantified through laboratory testing for V2G-EVSE9 and V2G-EVSE10. V2G-EVSE9 latency ranges from 0.8 to 1.8 seconds, whereas V2G-EVSE10 latency ranges from 3.4 to 8.8 seconds. The ramp rate to a change in power transfer request also differs between the two EVSEs. V2G-EVSE10 ramp rate ranges from 50% to -250% of rated AC power per second, whereas V2G-EVSE9 rate ranges from 95% to -95% of rated AC power per second. At the highest rate of change in power transfer, V2G-EVSE10 can change from full charge power to full discharge power in less than one second. The V2G EVSE characterization presented in this report provides valuable insights and results for use by numerous entities. This includes modeling and simulation organizations, decision makers, fleet planning, industry stakeholders, and many others involved with the development and deployment of electrified transportation technologies. Additional high-power DC chargers, bidirectional chargers, and inductive power transfer EVSE characterization results are anticipated from additional EVSE brands and models, which will be detailed in future publications in support of the U.S. Department of Energy EVs@Scale consortium Next-Gen Profiles project.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2010

Use of Dynamic Models and Operational Architecture to Solve Complex Navy Challenges

The United States Navy established 8 Maritime Operations Centers (MOC) to enhance the command and control of forces at the operational level of warfare. Each MOC is a headquarters manned by qualified joint operational-level staffs, and enabled by globally interoperable C41 systems. To assess and refine MOC staffing, equipment, and schedules, a dynamic software model was developed. The model leverages pre-existing operational process architecture, joint military task lists that define activities and their precedence relations, as well as Navy documents that specify manning and roles per activity. The software model serves as a "computational wind-tunnel" in which to test a MOC on a mission, and to refine its structure, staffing, processes, and schedules. More generally, the model supports resource allocation decisions concerning Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel and Facilities (DOTMLPF) at MOCs around the world. A rapid prototype effort efficiently produced this software in less than five months, using an integrated process team consisting of MOC military and civilian staff, modeling experts, and software developers. The work reported here was conducted for Commander, United States Fleet Forces Command in Norfolk, Virginia, code N5-0LW (Operational Level of War) that facilitates the identification, consolidation, and prioritization of MOC capabilities requirements, and implementation and delivery of MOC solutions.

Grande, Darby↗
NASA NTRS2020

Observations on the Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories: (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: A Case Study

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues are illustrated by a detailed example and summary of current research in the area. The application of MLT to aviation operations falls into two categories 58; (a) based on the lack of a physics-based model, MLT is the favored approach and (b) marginal difference between regression methods using physics-based models and MLT. Further research is needed in the selection of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Aviation Operations: NASA Case Studies

There is an increasing interest in applying methods based on Machine Learning Techniques(MLT) to problems in aviation operations. The current interest is based on developments in Cloud Computing, the availability of open software and the success of MLT in automation, consumer behavior and finance involving large database. Historically aviation operations have been analyzed using physics-based models and provide information for making operational decisions. This talk describes issues to be addressed in applying either model-driven or data-driven methods. Aviation operations involving many decision makers, multiple objectives, poor or unavailable physics-based models and a rich historical database are prime candidates for analysis using data-driven methods. The issues relating to data, feature selection and validation of the models are illustrated by examining case studies of the application of MLT to problems in air traffic management at NASA. Further research is needed in the application of MLT to critical aviation operations. As always, the best approach depends on the task, the physical understanding of the problem and the quality and quantity of the available data.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2003

Modeling and Evaluation of Miles-in-Trail Restrictions in the National Air Space

Miles-in-trail restrictions impact flights in the national air space on a daily basis and these restrictions routinely propagate between adjacent Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Since overly restrictive or ineffective miles-in-trail restrictions can reduce the overall efficiency of the national air space, decision support capabilities that model miles-in-trail restrictions should prove to be very beneficial. This paper presents both an analytical formulation and a linear programming approach for modeling the effects of miles-in-trail restrictions. A methodology for monitoring the conformance of an existing miles-in-trail restriction is also presented. These capabilities have been implemented in the Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool for testing purposes. To allow alternative restrictions to be evaluated in post-operations, a new mode of operation, which is referred to as the hybrid-playback mode, has been implemented in the simulation environment. To demonstrate the capabilities of these new algorithms, the miles-in-trail restrictions, which were in effect on June 27, 2002 in the New York Terminal Radar Approach Control, are examined. Results from the miles-in-trail conformance monitoring functionality are presented for the ELIOT, PARKE and WHITE departure fixes. In addition, the miles-in-trail algorithms are used to assess the impact of alternative restrictions at the PARKE departure fix.

Grabbe, Shon↗
NASA NTRS1986

An optimal repartitioning decision policy

A central problem to parallel processing is the determination of an effective partitioning of workload to processors. The effectiveness of any given partition is dependent on the stochastic nature of the workload. The problem of determining when and if the stochastic behavior of the workload has changed enough to warrant the calculation of a new partition is treated. The problem is modeled as a Markov decision process, and an optimal decision policy is derived. Quantification of this policy is usually intractable. A heuristic policy which performs nearly optimally is investigated empirically. The results suggest that the detection of change is the predominant issue in this problem.

Nicol, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Reactive system verification case study: Fault-tolerant transputer communication

A reactive program is one which engages in an ongoing interaction with its environment. A system which is controlled by an embedded reactive program is called a reactive system. Examples of reactive systems are aircraft flight management systems, bank automatic teller machine (ATM) networks, airline reservation systems, and computer operating systems. Reactive systems are often naturally modeled (for logical design purposes) as a composition of autonomous processes which progress concurrently and which communicate to share information and/or to coordinate activities. Formal (i.e., mathematical) frameworks for system verification are tools used to increase the users' confidence that a system design satisfies its specification. A framework for reactive system verification includes formal languages for system modeling and for behavior specification and decision procedures and/or proof-systems for verifying that the system model satisfies the system specifications. Using the Ostroff framework for reactive system verification, an approach to achieving fault-tolerant communication between transputers was shown to be effective. The key components of the design, the decoupler processes, may be viewed as discrete-event-controllers introduced to constrain system behavior such that system specifications are satisfied. The Ostroff framework was also effective. The expressiveness of the modeling language permitted construction of a faithful model of the transputer network. The relevant specifications were readily expressed in the specification language. The set of decision procedures provided was adequate to verify the specifications of interest. The need for improved support for system behavior visualization is emphasized.

Crane, D. Francis↗
NASA NTRS2012

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissertation Defense: Three Papers on Organizational Decision-Making and Change at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This is a three-paper dissertation that responds to a call for empirical research on stakeholder influence in the implementation of evaluation recommendations. The literature is consistent but mostly theoretical: stakeholder participation should positively influence and increase the probability of implementation (see e.g., Christie, 2011; Cousins & Earl, 1992; Fetterman, 2004). In response, I use two Goddard Space Flight Center engineering technical training and development programs to build a causal argument supporting my proposition that stakeholder influence in the logic modeling process impacts organizational decision-making and change. I first introduce the logic modeling process as a tool to involve stakeholders in program and evaluation design (paper 1); then use the data collection process to implement the collaboratively constructed logic model outcomes (paper 2); and, finally, I triangulate the data using the Toal (2009) Evaluation Involvement Scale (paper 3). I do this to “increase the validity of the findings” (Noble & Heale, 2019, p. 67) and to garner potential mechanisms. I found that stakeholder participation in the logic modeling process positively influenced the use of data to inform recommendations which in turn positively influenced implementation of evaluation recommendations. I identified the process itself as the mechanism and the key decision points as links or influencers. Potential factors included power and interest (measured by role) and time-on-job.

organizational decision-making↗
DOE OSTI2023

The impact of market design and clean energy incentives on strategic generation investments and resource adequacy in low-carbon electricity markets

Well-designed electricity markets play a crucial role in maintaining reliable electric power systems, which are critical in modern society. Here, this study examines the impact of different electricity market designs and clean energy incentive schemes on supporting renewable energy integration and achieving clean energy goals. To this end, we utilize a game-theoretical generation expansion planning model where generation companies make investment and retirement decisions to maximize their expected profit. The model is structured as an equilibrium problem with equilibrium constraints (EPEC) and solved using a diagonalization approach combined with progressive hedging. We analyze three types of electricity market designs: an energy-only market, a capacity market, and a clean energy market, and consider a wide range of market parameters resulting in 14 total scenarios. Wind and solar capacity comprise the majority of new investments in all considered scenarios, but the resultant system planning reserve margin (PRM) can differ significantly depending on market parameters. We also find that profit-driven investments lead to lower PRMs than a traditional system cost minimization approach. These individual scenario results further demonstrate how different market designs and clean energy incentive schemes may influence investor decision-making and impact resource adequacy throughout the clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neural-based time series forecasting of loss of coolant accidents in nuclear power plants

During the last few years, deep learning in neural networks has demonstrated impressive successes in the areas of computer vision, speech and image recognition, text generation, and many others. However, sensitive engineering areas such as nuclear engineering benefited less from these efficient techniques. In this work, deep learning expert systems are utilized to model and predict time series progression of a design-basis nuclear accident, featuring a loss of coolant accident. Two major findings are accomplished in this work. First, the ability to train expert systems with high accuracy, which could help nuclear power plant operators to figure out plant responses during the accident. Second, building fast, efficient, and accurate deep models to simulate nuclear phenomena, which could be valuable to nuclear computational science. In this work, large amount of time series data is obtained from simulation tools by simulating different conditions of the base-case/nominal accident scenario. Four critical outputs/responses are monitored during the accident (e.g. temperature, pressure, break flow rate, water level). Two approaches are adopted in this work. The first approach is to use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) to fit all time steps and outputs in a single model. The second approach is to use long short-term memory (LSTM) to fit all time steps together for each reactor response separately. Both DNN and LSTM demonstrate very good performance in predicting the test and base-case scenarios, with accuracy as low as 92% and as high as 99%, where these test scenarios are unknown to the expert systems and are not included in the model training. In addition, both approaches demonstrate a significant reduction in computational costs, as the deep expert system is able to accurately predict the accident 100,000 times faster than the original simulation tool. Given sufficient data, the methodology adopted in this study demonstrates that DNN/LSTM expert systems can be used as a decision support system to model advanced time series phenomena within nuclear power plants with high accuracy and negligible computational costs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2015

Urban SAFE50: Modeling, Controlling, and Testing Safe UAS Operations in Low Altitude Settings

The research and development of UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are quickly progressing as industries and hobbyist societies recognize their utility. NASA is focused on the technology development and safety considerations surrounding commercial use of UAVs. Urban SAFE50 (Safe Autonomous Flight Environment within the notional last 50 feet of operation of 55 pound class UAS (Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems)) is focused on the necessary real-­time decision algorithms and flight models prevalent in low-­altitude, high-­density city environments. Construction of on-­board controls to respond to motor failure and wind dynamics as well as a database of computational flight models and battery discharge profiles will help policymakers to predict and regulate unmanned aircraft flight safely and effectively.

SAFE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗