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At least 577 records · Page 32

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a self-organizing map (SOM). Multiple self-organizing maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experiential knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal.

Mark A. Motter↗

The Effect of Natural Disasters and Extreme Weather on Household Location Choice and Economic Welfare

Natural disasters have increased in the United States in recent decades. At the same time, there has been a shift in population away from the states in the Northeast and Midwest to areas in the Sun Belt, many of which face increased risks from natural disasters. Spatial equilibrium theory predicts that households trade off risk for income in making location decisions. This study estimates a spatial equilibrium model of household location choice to understand these trade-offs. The results show that households require as much as 0.40% of annual household income to endure an additional disaster over the course of a decade. They also show that these values differ substantially depending on household skill level with higher-skill, higher-income households willing to pay three times more in annual income to avoid an additional natural disaster. Furthermore, these results have important implications for policymakers thinking about climate change adaptation and environmental justice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carbon Dynamics in Vegetation and Soils

The overall goals of CD-08 team in Phase I were to quantify the contributions of different components of the carbon cycle to overall ecosystem carbon balance in Amazonian tropical forests and to undertake process studies at a number of sites along the eastern LBA transect to understand how and why these fluxes vary with site, season, and year. We divided this work into a number of specific tasks: (1) determining the average rate (and variability) of tree growth over the past 3 decades; (2) determining age demographics of tree populations, using radiocarbon to determine tree age; (3) assessing the rate of production and decomposition of dead wood debris; (4) determining turnover rates for organic matter in soils and the mean age of C respired from soil using radiocarbon measurements; and (5) comparing our results with models and constructing models to predict the potential of tropical forests to function as sources or sinks of C. This report summarizes the considerable progress made towards our original goals, which have led to increased understanding of the potential for central Amazon forests to act as sources or sinks of carbon with altered productivity. The overall picture of tropical forest C dynamics emerging from our Phase I studies suggests that the fraction of gross primary production allocated to growth in these forests is only 25-30%, as opposed to the 50% assumed by many ecosystem models. Consequent slow tree growth rates mean greater mean tree age for a given diameter, as reflected in our measurements and models of tree age. Radiocarbon measurements in leaf and root litter suggest that carbon stays in living tree biomass for several years up to a decade before being added to soils, where decomposition is rapid. The time lags predicted from 14C, when coupled with climate variation on similar time scales, can lead to significant interannual variation in net ecosystem C exchange.

Trumbore, Susan↗

Relating Changing Aerosols to Changing Clouds: Two Decades of Terra and Aqua Observations

The global aerosol system of today is not the same as it was two decades ago when Terra and Aqua were launched. As a result of a changing climate (natural and anthropogenic) convolved with changes in human activity (deliberate and accidental), some regions have experienced significant changes to their total aerosol burden (increases or decreases of total loading) or their aerosol composition (as defined by relative size or source type). Other regions have had less or no significant changes. At the same time, changes in aerosol amount and composition affect clouds through direct and indirect microphysical and radiative processes. We can theoretically predict what might happen to clouds when you add aerosol to an otherwise pristine environment. Conversely, there is the situation of removing aerosol from a polluted environment. Over the past two decades, sensors on both Earth Observing Satellites (Terra and Aqua) have observed the radiative signatures of aerosols and clouds, as well as their changes. Via massive efforts by their respective characterization teams, the resulting data records appear to have a minimum of artificial drifts. Therefore, we are trying to assess, region by region, our 20-year records of aerosols and clouds, along with meteorological variables. Where have been the most significant changes of aerosols and/or clouds? Where do the changes in clouds conform with expectations based on changes of aerosols and meteorology and where do they not? In addition to separate ‘aerosol’ and ‘cloud’ retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), there is a ‘twilight zone’ that is not accounted for in either product. What are these regions, and have they changed over the past two decades? We will present our early efforts at characterizing the MODIS view of aerosol and cloud changes, while also relating to changes in radiative fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) from corresponding observations by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES).

aerosols↗

Considerations for realistic atmospheric environments: An application to corrosion testing

Measured salt compositions in dust collected over roughly the last decade from surfaces of in-service stainless-steel alloys at four locations around the United States are presented, along with the predicted brine compositions that would result from deliquescence of these salts. The salt compositions vary greatly from ASTM seawater and from laboratory salts (i.e., NaCl or MgCl 2 ) commonly used on corrosion testing. The salts contained relatively high amounts of sulfates and nitrates, evolved to basic pH values, and exhibited deliquescence relative humidity values (RH) higher than seawater. Additionally, inert dust in components were quantified and considerations for laboratory testing are presented. The observed dust compositions are discussed in terms of the potential corrosion behavior and are compared to commonly used accelerated testing protocols. Finally, ambient weather conditions and their influence on diurnal fluctuations in temperature (T) and RH on heated metal surfaces are evaluated and a relevant diurnal cycle for laboratory testing a heated surface has been developed. Suggestions for future accelerated tests are proposed that include exploration of the effects of inert dust particles on atmospheric corrosion, chemistry considerations, and realistic diurnal fluctuations in T and RH. Understanding mechanisms in both realistic and accelerated environments will allow development of a corrosion factor (i.e., scaling factor) for the extrapolation of laboratory-scale test results to real world applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review and meta-analysis of electron temperatures from high-intensity laser–solid interactions

The accelerated electron spectrum from high-intensity laser–solid interaction is often conveniently described using a Boltzmann distribution, whose temperature is known within the field as the hot-electron temperature. The importance of the electron temperature is highlighted by the sheer number of experimental and simulation studies on the subject over the past three decades. Recently, multi-kJ, multi-ps pulses have yielded electron spectra with temperatures far beyond the expected ponderomotive result. Expressions that predict the electron temperature considering laser parameters beyond intensity and wavelength have been developed, albeit using small datasets. In this review, we present what is, to the best of our knowledge, the largest dataset of electron temperatures gathered from experimental measurements and particle-in-cell simulations. This dataset allows us to compare existing analytical and empirical hot-electron temperature scaling models over a wide parameter range. We also develop new scaling models that incorporate the laser pulse duration of the laser and the plasma scale length. Three models that include pulse-duration and scale length dependence are especially successful at predicting both simulated and experimental data. The dataset will soon be made publicly available to encourage further investigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Logarithmic criticality in transverse thermoelectric conductivity of the ferromagnetic topological semimetal CoMnSb

Here we report the results of our experimental studies on the magnetic, transport, and thermoelectric properties of the ferromagnetic metal CoMnSb. A sizable anomalous Hall conductivity $σ_{yx}$ and transverse thermoelectric conductivity $α_{yx}$ are found experimentally and comparable in size to the values estimated from first-principles calculation. Our experiment further reveals that CoMnSb exhibits -T log T critical behavior in $α_{yx}$ (T), deviating from Fermi liquid behavior $α_{yx}$ ~ T over a decade of temperature between 10 and 400 K, similar to ferromagnetic Weyl and nodal-line semimetals. Our theoretical calculation for CoMnSb also predicts the - T log T behavior when the Fermi energy locates near the Weyl nodes in momentum space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Late degeneration in rabbit tissues after irradiation by heavy ions

Results are presented for investigations of the late effects of heavy-ion irradiation on rabbit tissues which were undertaken to assess the hazards associated with the long-term exposure of humans to heavy ions in space during such activities as the construction of solar power stations or voyages to Mars. White rabbits approximately six weeks old were exposed to various doses of collimated beams of 400-MeV/n Ne ions, 570 MeV/n Ar ions and Co-60 gamma rays directed through both eyes, and the responses of the various tissues (hair follicles, skin, cornea, lens, retina, Harderian glands, bone and forebrain) were examined. Proliferating tissues are found to exhibit high damage levels in the early and late periods following irradiation, while terminally differentiating tissues repond to radiation most intensely in the late period, years after irradiation, with no intermediate recovery. The results obtained from rabbits are used to predict the occurrence of late tissue degeneration in the central nervous system, terminally differentiating systems and stem cells of humans one or more decades following exposure to radiation levels anticipated during long-duration space flights. The studies also indicate that tissues may be prematurely aged in the sense that tissue life spans may be shortened without the development of malignancies.

Lett, J. T.↗

Advances in parameterization of cumulus convection in numerical models

Observational studies over the last decade have revealed new sources of difficulty in the already complex problem of parameterization of precipitating cumulus convection in large scale numerical weather prediction models. The structure of mesoscale updrafts and downdrafts and the difficulties they present for cumulus parameterization is reviewed. An approach is proposed which follows Kuo (1974) but includes cumulus and mesoscale downdrafts in the vertical distributions of heating and moistening. The development of a realistic life cycle behavior in the numerical prediction of a mesoscale convective complex will be shown.

Molinari, J.↗

Composite structural materials

A decade long program to develop critical advanced composite technology in the areas of physical properties, structural concept and analysis, manufacturing, reliability, and life predictions is reviewed. Specific goals are discussed. The status of the chemical vapor deposition effects on carbon fiber properties; inelastic deformation of metal matrix laminates; fatigue damage in fibrous MMC laminates; delamination fracture toughness in thermoplastic matrix composites; and numerical analysis of composite micromechanical behavior are presented.

Loewy, Robert G.↗

The effect of fluctuations on the electrical transport behavior in YBa2Cu3O(7-x)

The excess conductivity behavior of highly oriented YBa2Cu3O(7-x) thin films prepared by both coevaporation and laser ablation was studied in detail in the reduced-temperature range 9 x 10(exp -4) is less than t is less than 1. The excess conductivity in all the films studied was found to diverge sharply near T(sub c), in agreement with the conventional mean-field theory. However, the detailed temperature dependence could not be fitted to either the power-law or the logarithmic functional forms as predicted by the theory. The excess conductivity of all the films was found to be exponentially dependent on the temperature over nearly three decades for 9 x 10(exp -4) is less than t is less than 10(exp -1), in contradiction to the mean-field theory.

Vitta, Satish↗

Improved Method for Prediction of Attainable Wing Leading-Edge Thrust

Prediction of the loss of wing leading-edge thrust and the accompanying increase in drag due to lift, when flow is not completely attached, presents a difficult but commonly encountered problem. A method (called the previous method) for the prediction of attainable leading-edge thrust and the resultant effect on airplane aerodynamic performance has been in use for more than a decade. Recently, the method has been revised to enhance its applicability to current airplane design and evaluation problems. The improved method (called the present method) provides for a greater range of airfoil shapes from very sharp to very blunt leading edges. It is also based on a wider range of Reynolds numbers than was available for the previous method. The present method, when employed in computer codes for aerodynamic analysis, generally results in improved correlation with experimental wing-body axial-force data and provides reasonable estimates of the measured drag.

Carlson, Harry W.↗

Overview and Performance Prediction of the Baseline 4-Meter Telescope Concept Design for the Habitable-Zone Exoplanet Observatory

The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory Mission (HabEx) is one of four missions under study for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Its goal is to directly image and spectroscopically characterize planetary systems in the habitable zone around nearby sun-like stars. Additionally, HabEx will perform a broad range of general astrophysics science enabled by 100 to 2500 nm spectral range and 3 x 3 arc-minute FOV. Critical to achieving the HabEx science goals is a large, ultra-stable UV/Optical/Near-IR (UVOIR) telescope. The baseline HabEx telescope is a 4-meter off-axis unobscured three-mirror-anastigmatic, diffraction limited at 400 nm with wavefront stability on the order of a few 10s of picometers. This paper summarizes the opto-mechanical design of the HabEx baseline optical telescope assembly, including a discussion of how science requirements drive the telescope's specifications, and presents analysis that the baseline telescope structure meets its specified tolerances.

Space Mirror Technology↗

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial biases of information influence global estimates of soil respiration: how can we improve global predictions?

Soil respiration (Rs), the efflux of CO2 from soils to the atmosphere, is a major component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, but is poorly constrained from regional to global scales. The global soil respiration database (SRDB) is a compilation of in-situ Rs observations from around the globe that has been consistently updated with new measurements over the past decade. It is unclear whether the addition of data to new versions of the SRDB has produced better-constrained global Rs estimates. We compared two versions of the SRDB (v3.0 n=5173 and v5.0 n=10366) to determine how additional data influenced the global sum and uncertainty of Rs as predicted by a quantile regression forest model. A model parameterized using SRDBv3 yielded a global Rs sum of 88.6 Pg C yr-1, and associated uncertainty of 29.9 (mean absolute error) and 57.9 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1, whereas parameterization using SRDBv5 yielded 96.5 Pg C yr-1 and associated uncertainty of 30.2 (mean average error) and 73.4 (standard deviation) Pg C yr-1. Empirically estimated global heterotrophic respiration (Rh) from v3 and v5 were 49.9-50.2 (mean 50.1) and 53.3-53.5 (mean 53.4) Pg C yr-1, respectively. Interestingly, SRDBv5’s inclusion of new data from underrepresented regions (e.g., Asia, Africa, South America) thus resulted in overall higher model uncertainty. The SRDBv5 is still biased towards northern latitudes and temperate zones, so we tested that an optimized global distribution of Rs measurements resulted in a global sum of 96.4 ± 21.4 Pg C yr-1 and lower model uncertainty. These results support current global estimates of Rs but highlight spatial inconsistencies that influence model parameterization and interpretation that should be addressed to improve regional- to global-scale predictions.

Stell, Emma↗

Prediction of an alternative high-pressure route to polymeric carbon dioxide as a metastable energetic material

The use of pressure to obtain new materials that can be recovered under ambient conditions is a central problem in high-pressure physics. Despite decades of research, this goal has only been achieved in the laboratory for a few notable examples, such as diamond and cubic boron nitride. An area of significant interest is the transformation under compression of light-element molecular compounds to extended covalent-bonded (polymeric) solids. Among them, CO 2 has been extensively studied because of its status as a prototypical simple molecular system with a rich phase diagram and due to its fundamental role in Earth’s physics and chemistry. One of its polymeric crystalline phases, accessible at extreme pressures and temperatures, has been recently quenched to ambient pressure, but below room temperature. Here we report ab initio calculations predicting that isothermal compression of a carbon monoxide and oxygen mixture (CO+O 2 ), rather than the compound CO 2 , lowers the onset of C-polymerization at room temperature from ~ 118 GPa to ~ 7 GPa (complete by ~ 23 GPa). Moreover, it leads to the formation of an intrinsically different polymer with enhanced metastability. We predict that this dense phase is an energetic material which can potentially be recovered to ambient pressure and temperature.

Paul, Reetam [Lawrence Livermore National Laborato↗

Data-driven enhancement of coherent structure-based models for predicting instantaneous wall turbulence

Predictions of the spatial representation of instantaneous wall-bounded flows, via coherent structure-based models, are highly sensitive to the geometry of the representative structures employed by them. In this study, we propose a methodology to extract the three-dimensional (3-D) geometry of the statistically significant eddies from multi-point wall-turbulence datasets, for direct implementation into these models to improve their predictions. The methodology is employed here for reconstructing a 3-D statistical picture of the inertial wall coherent turbulence for all canonical wall-bounded flows, across a decade of friction Reynolds number (Re T ). These structures are responsible for the Re T -dependence of the skin-friction drag and also facilitate the inner-outer interactions, making them key targets of structure-based models. The empirical analysis brings out the geometric self-similarity of the large-scale wall-coherent motions and also suggests the hairpin packet as the representative flow structure for all wall-bounded flows, thereby aligning with the framework on which the attached eddy model (AEM) is based. The same framework is extended here to also model the very-large-scaled motions, with a consideration of their differences in internal versus external flows. Implementation of the empirically-obtained geometric scalings for these large structures into the AEM is shown to enhance the instantaneous flow predictions for all three velocity components. Finally, an active flow control system driven by the same geometric scalings is conceptualized, towards favourably altering the influence of the wall coherent motions on the skin-friction drag.

42 ENGINEERING↗