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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Optical conductivity of the type-II Weyl semimetal TaIrTe 4

TaIrTe4 is an example of a candidate Weyl type-II semimetal with a minimal possible number of Weyl nodes. Four nodes are reported to exist a single plane in k-space. The existence of a conical dispersion linked to Weyl nodes has yet to be shown experimentally. Here we use optical spectroscopy as a probe of the band structure on a low-energy scale. Studying optical conductivity allows us to probe intraband and interband transitions with zero momentum. In TaIrTe 4 , we observe a narrow Drude contribution and an interband conductivity that may be consistent with a tilted linear band dispersion up to 40 meV. The interband conductivity allows us to establish the effective parameters of the conical dispersion; effective velocity v = 1.1 · 10 4 m/s and tilt γ = 0.37. The transport data, Seebeck and Hall coefficients, are qualitatively consistent with conical features in the band structure. Quantitative disagreement may be linked to the multiband nature of TaIrTe 4 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriching OpenStreetMap network data for transportation applications: Insights into the impact of urban congestion on accessibility

OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is a valuable open-source resource for various transportation, traffic, and planning applications. However, OSM network data lack operating traffic speed information, which is critical for transport planning and operations. Addressing this shortcoming, this study leverages commercial vendor data (to serve as ground truth) with exogenous, open-source variables characterizing local transport infrastructure, land use, and demographic information to predict average congested traffic speeds on OSM networks. Three machine-learning models were tested and estimated for OSM links with and without speed limit information in the Denver metropolitan region. Among these, XGBoost performed best, with mean absolute errors of 3.27 and 3.62 mph for links with and without speed limits, respectively. The developed models accurately predicted traffic speeds for different hours and days of the week compared to ground truth data. Using these predicted speeds, drive accessibility scores were computed for the Denver region for different time periods using the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric to understand the impact of congestion on energy-efficient accessibility. Results show that congestion-adjusted drive accessibility can be significantly lower compared to accessibility calculated using free flow speeds. Specifically, weekday evening hours saw a 42 % drop in accessibility due to reduced speeds, particularly around downtown Denver. Across the Denver metro region, approximately half as many opportunities and jobs are accessible in under 20 min by car during the evening peak period relative to free flow conditions. These findings underscore the importance of using congestion-adjusted operating speeds rather than speed limits in accessibility calculations, as reliance on speed limits can substantially overestimate energy-efficient drive accessibility in large, car-centric cities susceptible to significant congestion. In conclusion, the methodology presented here could further enrich OSM network data, making them useful for an even broader range of transportation applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Metal Ion Assignment Accuracy in Protein Data Bank Models via Elemental Spectroscopy

Accurate representation of metal ions in macromolecular structures is critical for chemical interpretation, computational modeling, and machine-learning methods that rely on Protein Data Bank (PDB) entries. However, the elemental identity of metals modeled in crystallographic structures is often inferred indirectly and rarely validated experimentally. Here, we combine Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) and X-ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy (XRFS) to determine the elemental composition of protein samples used to generate 70 deposited metalloprotein crystal structures. By analyzing the original protein material employed for crystallization, but before the addition of crystallization buffer solutions, we assess whether the modeled metal ions in deposited structures are consistent with experimentally detectable elemental content. We find that in a majority of cases, the metals modeled in the corresponding PDB entries are inconsistent with the metals present in the protein samples before crystallization, or that additional metals are present but not represented in the structural models. Spectroscopic results were integrated with automated crystallographic validation metrics, including real-space Z-difference (RSZD) analysis and systematic rerefinement, to evaluate atomic-number mismatch at metal sites. PIXE and XRFS show strong agreement for dominant elemental signals and provide complementary, scalable approaches for identifying suspect metal assignments. This work does not address physiological or functional metalation but instead highlights a widespread data integrity issue in deposited macromolecular structures, PDB-wide. These results establish an experimentally corroborated link between elemental identity and crystallographic validation metrics, enabling the large-scale detection of chemically inconsistent annotations in structural databases used for computational modeling and machine learning.

Crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deciphering the Solvation Structure of Aqueous ZnCl 2 Solutions from X-ray Absorption Spectra Using the Interpretable Graph Neural Network

Machine learning (ML) provides powerful pathways for predicting spectroscopic observables from atomic structures, but its broader impact depends on making model predictions interpretable in terms of physical and chemical principles. Here, we introduce a physics-guided graph neural network (GNN) model that predicts Zn K-edge X-ray spectroscopy (XAS) spectra of aqueous ZnCl 2 solutions. Training data are generated from ab initio XAS calculations on molecular dynamics snapshots obtained using a machine learning interatomic potential. The GNN reproduces experimental spectra across concentrations from dilute (<0.1 m) to highly concentrated (30 m, “water-in-salt”) regimes and scales efficiently to large, disordered liquid systems beyond the reach of conventional ab initio approaches. Gradient-based attribution analysis reveals that the model learns physically meaningful structure-spectrum relationships. Ligand-specific attributions reflect orbital hybridization patterns and the origin of the excitations derived from the density functional theory. Bond-length attributions recover spectral shifts consistent with multiple-scattering theory. Finally, this work bridges data-driven prediction with electronic-structure theory, establishing a general paradigm for interpretable ML that links atomic structure, electronic structure, and spectroscopic observables.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selective Depolymerization for Sculpting Polymethacrylate Molecular Weight Distributions

Chain-end reactivation of polymethacrylates generated by reversible-deactivation radical polymerization (RDRP) has emerged as a powerful tool for triggering depolymerization at significantly milder temperatures than those traditionally employed. In this study, we demonstrate how the facile depolymerization of poly(butyl methacrylate) (PBMA) can be leveraged to selectively skew the molecular weight distribution (MWD) and predictably alter the viscoelastic properties of blended PBMA mixtures. By mixing polymers with thermally active chain ends with polymers of different molecular weights and inactive chain ends, the MWD of the blends can be skewed to be high or low by selective depolymerization. This approach leads to the counterintuitive principle of the “destructive strengthening” of a material. As a result, we demonstrate, as a proof of concept, the encryption of information within polymer mixtures by linking Morse code with the MWDs before and after selective depolymerization, allowing for the encoding of data within blends of synthetic macromolecules.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Expanded Understanding of the Western Antarctic Peninsula Sea‐Ice Environment Through Local and Regional Observations at Palmer Station

Abstract The Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has been experiencing rapid regional warming since at least the 1950s, however, the impacts of this warming at the local scale are variable and nuanced. Previous studies that have linked sea‐ice variability to biogeochemical cycles and food web dynamics often combine local‐scale biogeochemical data with coarse‐resolution regional satellite sea‐ice data, which may not adequately capture local sea‐ice conditions. In this study, we analyzed local‐scale in situ sea‐ice observations collected as part of a 28‐year record (1992–2020) from the Palmer Long‐Term Ecological Research site at Anvers Island, mid‐WAP, in conjunction with isotopically‐derived sea‐ice meltwater (SIM) fractions and satellite‐derived sea‐ice motion and concentration, to quantify the variability and long‐term trends in local sea‐ice behavior. In situ sea ice observations at Palmer Station displayed higher variability than satellite observations and showed no significant declines over this time, despite region‐wide declines identified in prior studies. Higher spring SIM fractions were attributed to strong northward sea‐ice motion throughout the winter. Applying these local‐scale sea‐ice insights to similarly scaled stratification and chlorophyll‐ a measurements, we found that a longer‐lasting, more consistent sea‐ice pack led to greater water column stratification following the spring sea‐ice retreat. Greater sea‐ice persistence and stronger stratification led to larger peaks in chlorophyll‐ a , though sea‐ice metrics did not explain the positive temporal trends in either stratification strength or chlorophyll‐ a . Through this study, we identify how local sea‐ice observations and meltwater data can enhance satellite data to build an understanding of the intricate connections between ice, water column dynamics, and phytoplankton.

Goodell, E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the chemistry of Australian plant exudates from a unique historical collection

For thousands of years, the unique physicochemical properties of plant exudates have defined uses in material culture and practical applications. Native Australian plant exudates, including resins, kinos, and gums, have been used and continue to be used by Aboriginal Australians for numerous technical and cultural purposes. A historic collection of well-preserved native Australian plant exudates, assembled a century ago by plant naturalists, gives a rare window into the history and chemical composition of these materials. Here we report the full hierarchical characterization of four genera from this collection, Xanthorrhoea, Callitris, Eucalyptus, and Acacia, from the local elemental speciation, to functional groups and main molecular markers. We use high-resolution X-ray Raman spectroscopy (XRS) to achieve bulk-sensitive chemical speciation of these plant exudates, including insoluble, amorphous, and cross-linked fractions, without the limitation of invasive and/or surface specific methods. Combinatorial testing of the XRS data allows direct classification of these complex natural species as terpenoid, aromatic, phenolic, and polysaccharide materials. Differences in intragenera chemistry was evidenced by detailed interpretation of the XRS spectral features. We complement XRS with Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and pyrolysis–GC-MS (Py-GC-MS). This multimodal approach provides a fundamental understanding of the chemistry of these natural materials long used by Aboriginal Australian peoples.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Threadsafe Dynamic Neighbor Lists for Monte Carlo Ray Tracing

Monte Carlo (MC) transport codes offer high-fidelity modeling of particle transport physics, but their high computational cost makes them impractical for many applications. For some applications such as multiphysics and depletion that use finely discretized geometries, a large portion of this computational cost is attributable to ray tracing. Neighbor lists are a well-known method for accelerating ray-tracing calculations in a MC code, but despite their prevalence, little work has been published on the details of their implementation. The fine details can have a significant impact on performance, particularly when using shared-memory parallelism. This paper addresses these details of implementation with a discussion of different neighbor list schemes and their impact on software runtime. Performance tests were run by using OpenMC on a pin-cell problem discretized with up to 200 axial regions. The results demonstrate that switching from surface-based to cell-based neighbor lists leads to a 10 faster calculation rate for the most fine discretization. Finally, using a threadsafe shared-memory data structure results in a 20% faster calculation rate versus simple threadprivate neighbor lists. Results here show that a data structure that is contiguous in memory improves performance by only 1% to 2% over noncontiguous linked lists.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A glimpse into the fungal metabolomic abyss: Novel network analysis reveals relationships between exogenous compounds and their outputs

Fungal specialized metabolites are a major source of beneficial compounds that are routinely isolated, characterized, and manufactured as pharmaceuticals, agrochemical agents, and industrial chemicals. The production of these metabolites is encoded by biosynthetic gene clusters that are often silent under standard growth conditions. There are limited resources for characterizing the direct link between abiotic stimuli and metabolite production. Herein, we introduce a network analysis-based, data-driven algorithm comprising two routes to characterize the production of specialized fungal metabolites triggered by different exogenous compounds: the direct route and the auxiliary route. Both routes elucidate the influence of treatments on the production of specialized metabolites from experimental data. The direct route determines known and putative metabolites induced by treatments and provides additional insight over traditional comparison methods. The auxiliary route is specific for discovering unknown analytes, and further identification can be curated through online bioinformatic resources. We validated our algorithm by applying chitooligosaccharides and lipids at two different temperatures to the fungal pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus. After liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry quantification of significantly produced analytes, we used network centrality measures to rank the treatments’ ability to elucidate these analytes and confirmed their identity through fragmentation patterns or in silico spiking with commercially available standards. Later, we examined the transcriptional regulation of these metabolites through real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Our data-driven techniques can complement existing metabolomic network analysis by providing an approach to track the influence of any exogenous stimuli on metabolite production. Our experimental-based algorithm can overcome the bottlenecks in elucidating novel fungal compounds used in drug discovery.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2023

ResStock: Annual Baseline Results with Component Loads

The ResStock Analysis Tool was developed by NREL with support from the U.S. Department of Energy to provide a new approach to large-scale residential analysis by combining large public and private data sources, statistical sampling, detailed sub hourly building simulations, and high-performance computing. This combination achieves unprecedented granularity and accuracy in modeling the diversity of the housing stock and the distributional impacts of building technologies in different communities. The annual baseline energy results from a national-scale ResStock run use typical meteorological year 3 (TMY3) files for energy simulations. Results include heating and cooling loads for individual components of each building. Component loads describe the heating/cooling load that can be attributed to specific elements of a home, such as heat transfer through walls or internal gains. Additionally, these results include the standard ResStock outputs for housing characteristics and numerous energy outputs by end-use and fuel. A snapshot of the ResStock version used to produce this data, including a configuration file for the run can be found using the Source Code resource link.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2020

Progress in Understanding the Origins of Excellent Corrosion Resistance in Metallic Alloys: From Binary Polycrystalline Alloys to Metallic Glasses and High Entropy Alloys

Some of the factors responsible for good corrosion resistance of select polycrystalline and emerging alloys in chloride solutions are discussed with a goal of providing some perspectives on the current status and future directions. Traditional metallic glass alloys, single phase high entropy alloys (HEAs), early metallic glasses, and high entropy metallic glasses are all emerging corrosion-resistant alloys (CRAs) that utilize traditional strategies for improved corrosion resistance as well as take advantage of some other novel beneficial attributes. These materials enjoy many degrees of freedom as far as choice of both composition and structure, providing great flexibility in the pursuit of superior corrosion resistance. The new materials depart from classical solvent-solute type polycrystalline binary or ternary alloys. Thus, such emerging materials provide significant opportunities to achieve even greater improvements in corrosion resistance in harsh environments. Several examples of the unique corrosion properties of selected materials in the context of modern theories of corrosion are discussed herein. Discussion is restricted to solid-solution binary or ternary polycrystalline alloys, several metallic glass alloys, and single phase HEAs. A common feature of many CRAs is that composition and microstructure often affect both passivity and resistance to localized corrosion that can be divided into initiation, stabilization, and propagation stages. Enormous complexities in protective oxide structures and chemistries and the large number of combinatorial possibilities in newer materials such as HEAs preclude trial-and-error approaches and perhaps even combinatorial experimental design. Computational materials methodologies will be required in the search for new corrosion-resistant alloys in these material classes. The search must consider the best scientific insights available regarding how major and minor alloy additions, as well as various microstructural attributes, contribute to corrosion mitigation. Additional scientific insights, as they emerge, will enable choices beyond the reliance on high concentrations of alloying elements that are known to affect passivity breakdown and pit stabilization. A challenge is to connect the “basic attributes” of an alloy with its properties. The strength of this connection will likely require new scientific principles enabling deep multiphysics insights in order to link feature(s) such as composition and metallurgical phases to the desired corrosion properties. Application of data informatics will likely also play a role given the plethora of variables that are important in corrosion and the difficulty in assessing all relationships. Here, the opportunity exists to accelerate the design of emerging materials for high corrosion resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

WaterTAP3 Model Input Data for NAWI's Eight Source Water Baseline Analyses

This folder contains the input data for the WaterTAP3 model that was used for the eight NAWI (National Alliance for Water Innovation) source water baselines studies published in the Environmental Science and Technology special issue: Technology Baselines and Innovation Priorities for Water Treatment and Supply. There are also eight other separate DAMS submissions, one per source water, that include the model results for the published studies. In this data submission, all model inputs across the eight baselines are included. The data structure and content are described in a README.txt file. For more details on how to use the data in WaterTAP3 please refer to the model documentation and GitHub site found at "WaterTAP3 Github" linked in the submission resources.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving deep learning model performance under parametric constraints for materials informatics applications

Abstract Modern machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques using high-dimensional data representations have helped accelerate the materials discovery process by efficiently detecting hidden patterns in existing datasets and linking input representations to output properties for a better understanding of the scientific phenomenon. While a deep neural network comprised of fully connected layers has been widely used for materials property prediction, simply creating a deeper model with a large number of layers often faces with vanishing gradient problem, causing a degradation in the performance, thereby limiting usage. In this paper, we study and propose architectural principles to address the question of improving the performance of model training and inference under fixed parametric constraints. Here, we present a general deep-learning framework based on branched residual learning (BRNet) with fully connected layers that can work with any numerical vector-based representation as input to build accurate models to predict materials properties. We perform model training for materials properties using numerical vectors representing different composition-based attributes of the respective materials and compare the performance of the proposed models against traditional ML and existing DL architectures. We find that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the ML/DL models for all data sizes by using different composition-based attributes as input. Further, branched learning requires fewer parameters and results in faster model training due to better convergence during the training phase than existing neural networks, thereby efficiently building accurate models for predicting materials properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Links between Structural Distortions, Orbital Ordering, and Multipolar Magnetic Ordering in Double Perovskites Containing Re(VI) and Os(VII)

A combination of high-resolution powder diffraction techniques and solid-state NMR has been employed to explore the links between crystal structure, orbital ordering, and magnetism in three isostructural double perovskites containing transition metal ions with a 5d 1 configuration. In Ba 2 ZnReO 6 , both neutron and synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction data reveal a cubic-to-tetragonal transition at 23 K that breaks the degeneracy of the t 2g orbitals and leads to a pattern of orbital ordering that stabilizes magnetic ordering when the sample is cooled below 16 K. Similar behavior is observed in Ba 2 MgReO 6 , with an orbital ordering temperature of 33 K and a magnetic ordering temperature of 18 K. Prior theoretical works suggest that the pattern of orbital order seen in the P42/mnm space group is needed to stabilize the heavily canted antiferromagnetism of these compounds. Unfortunately, powder diffraction data is not sensitive enough to differentiate between the I4/mmm and P42/mnm structural models, as the distortions are too subtle to be unambiguously identified from either neutron or synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction methods. In contrast, both diffraction and 7 Li NMR data indicate that Ba 2 LiOsO 6 retains the cubic structure down to 1.7 K. The antiferromagnetic ground state and lack of any sign of orbital ordering in Ba 2 LiOsO 6 provide compelling evidence that the electronically driven tetragonal distortion seen in Ba2ZnReO6, and Ba2MgReO6 is intimately linked to the magnetic ordering seen in those compounds. The absence of magnetic reflections in high intensity neutron powder diffraction data collected on Ba 2 MgReO 6 strongly suggests ordering of multipolar moments on Re(VI), likely ferro-octupolar ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reactome and the Gene Ontology: digital convergence of data resources

Abstract Motivation Gene Ontology Causal Activity Models (GO-CAMs) assemble individual associations of gene products with cellular components, molecular functions and biological processes into causally linked activity flow models. Pathway databases such as the Reactome Knowledgebase create detailed molecular process descriptions of reactions and assemble them, based on sharing of entities between individual reactions into pathway descriptions. Results To convert the rich content of Reactome into GO-CAMs, we have developed a software tool, Pathways2GO, to convert the entire set of normal human Reactome pathways into GO-CAMs. This conversion yields standard GO annotations from Reactome content and supports enhanced quality control for both Reactome and GO, yielding a nearly seamless conversion between these two resources for the bioinformatics community. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

PAVC Gridded 20m Alaska NGEE Tier3 PFTs v1.0

These 20-meter spatial resolution gridded products provide per-pixel fractional cover (%) of Next Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE) Arctic Plant Functional Types (PFTs) Tier 3 across Alaska, north of the boreal treeline. The products were developed for the NGEE Arctic project, which is improving Arctic vegetation representation and parameterization of the E3SM Land Model. This dataset includes 8 files containing fractional cover for NGEE Tier 3 PFTs (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.15485/2529470): (1) bryophytes; (2) lichens; (3) non-vascular plants, i.e., the sum of lichens and bryophytes; (4) deciduous shrubs, (5) evergreen shrubs, (6) forbs, (7) graminoids, and a non-PFT class, (8) litter. Each pixel contains the percent cover (expressed as a fraction of total ground cover) that was predicted by random-forest regression models. The random-forest models were trained on cover data collected at 978 plots from 2010 to 2021, of which are archived in the Pan-Arctic Vegetation Cover (PAVC) database (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2483557). The plot cover was linked to 20-meter spatial resolution, satellite-derived predictor variables: Sentinel-2 spectra and Sentinel-1 polarizations averaged over the 2019 growing season, as well as topographical features derived from ArcticDEM. Then, spatio-temporally anomalous plot data that introduced large variability to the regression outcomes were dropped using the Cook’s distance outlier detection method, and the models were re-created using high-quality plots and their associated satellite derived explanatory variables per each PFT. The correlations between plot-observed and satellite-derived fractional cover for all PFTs were well correlated (R2 = 0.69–0.95 and 0.5 for litter) and had low RMSE bias (0.02–0.11). This research was performed as a part of the NGEE Arctic project. The NGEE Arctic project was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗