Goal-oriented data-driven reduced-order modeling guided by hyper-differential sensitivity analysis.
Abstract not provided.
McQuarrie, Shane↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “data driven model”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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VERTEX Closures: Towards data-driven 3D MHD turbulence models for fusion blanket simulations
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Sircar, Arpan↗
Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands
Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Hybrid Modeling of Three-Phase Grid-Supporting Inverters for Dynamic Studies
Grid technologies connected by power electronic converter (PEC) interfaces continually implement grid support functions mandated by grid codes and standards. The transition to converter-based generation demands precise PEC models to assess system dynamics, which have been previously overlooked in conventional power systems. This study proposes a hybrid method for analyzing grid-connected three-phase PEC dynamics with the IEEE standard 1547-2018 Volt-VAr mode that combines physics and data-driven techniques. The physics model reflects the PEC’s internal behavior, whereas the data-driven modeling technique evaluates the grid-supporting capabilities of the smart PEC. The system identification approach is used to generate dynamic PEC models based on changing grid voltage and measured current injected into the grid by the PEC. In the Volt-VAr support mode, a detailed topological model including switches is utilized to compare the goodness-of-fit of the extracted hybrid dynamic model. The results demonstrate that the hybrid PEC model in the Volt-VAr mode accurately matches the dynamics with the topological model.
Subedi, Sunil↗
Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest
Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Variational multiscale reinforcement learning for discovering reduced order closure models of nonlinear spatiotemporal transport systems
Abstract A central challenge in the computational modeling and simulation of a multitude of science applications is to achieve robust and accurate closures for their coarse-grained representations due to underlying highly nonlinear multiscale interactions. These closure models are common in many nonlinear spatiotemporal systems to account for losses due to reduced order representations, including many transport phenomena in fluids. Previous data-driven closure modeling efforts have mostly focused on supervised learning approaches using high fidelity simulation data. On the other hand, reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful yet relatively uncharted method in spatiotemporally extended systems. In this study, we put forth a modular dynamic closure modeling and discovery framework to stabilize the Galerkin projection based reduced order models that may arise in many nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamical systems with quadratic nonlinearity. However, a key element in creating a robust RL agent is to introduce a feasible reward function, which can be constituted of any difference metrics between the RL model and high fidelity simulation data. First, we introduce a multi-modal RL to discover mode-dependant closure policies that utilize the high fidelity data in rewarding our RL agent. We then formulate a variational multiscale RL (VMRL) approach to discover closure models without requiring access to the high fidelity data in designing the reward function. Specifically, our chief innovation is to leverage variational multiscale formalism to quantify the difference between modal interactions in Galerkin systems. Our results in simulating the viscous Burgers equation indicate that the proposed VMRL method leads to robust and accurate closure parameterizations, and it may potentially be used to discover scale-aware closure models for complex dynamical systems.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields
Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
EMT Modeling of Data Centers for Analyzing Converter-Driven Stability Problems
This presentation describes the development of electromagnetic transient (EMT) models for data centers for analyzing converter-driven stability problems from data centers.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Scalable, Data-Driven, and High-Resolution Building Models for Control Optimization
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32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Status, Challenges, and Plans for Consistent Modeling and Evaluation of Fission Data: Nubar, PFNS, and FPY [Slides]
This presentation discusses the importance of consistent evaluations for fission observables. Currently, prompt fission quantities (e.g., neutron multiplicity, neutron energy spectrum, and fission product yields) are evaluated independently of one another, either with separate models or data-only/non-model evaluations (few – if any – shared model inputs) and inconsistencies can arise in evaluated data (e.g. NSE 190, 258 (2018)). They have found that consistent, model-based evaluations lead to more physical constraints on free parameters in the model, more robust predictions for other observables and other isotopes, that there are correlations between the uncertainties on different observables, and that uncertainties can be propagated to unmeasured quantities. They are working on developing models to the point where fission observables are calculated at the quality needed for an evaluation. They are striving to consistently calculate fission observables, such as $\bar{v}$, PFNS, and FPY, to a quality suitable for an evaluation. Current evaluations for fission observables use separate models for each observable (with minimal shared input) or are purely data driven. LANL models, such as the Monte Carlo CGMF and deterministic BeoH, have different strengths; the similar fission fragment initial conditions and decay models leads to consistency between the two codes (FPY can be connected to $\bar{v}$ and PFNS, even when calculated by different codes). Work is underway by Lovell to optimize the models and Neudecker is working to perform detailed uncertainty quantification. The PFNS, in particular, presents a significant challenge.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Reynolds-Averaged Turbulence Modeling Using Deep Learning with Local Flow Features: An Empirical Approach
Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stoke (RANS) models offer an alternative avenue in predicting flow characteristics when the corresponding experiments are difficult to achieve due to geometry complexity, limited budget, or knowledge. RANS models require the knowledge of subgrid scale physics to solve conservation equations for mass, energy, and momentum. Mechanistic turbulence models, such as k-epsilon, are generally evaluated and calibrated for specific flow conditions with various degrees of uncertainty. These models have limited capability to assimilate a substantial amount of data due to model form constraints. Meanwhile, deep learning (DL) has been proven to be universal approximators with the potential to assimilate available, relevant, and adequately evaluated data. Moreover, deep neural networks (DNNs) can create surrogate models without knowing function forms. Such a data-driven approach can be used in updating fluid models based on observations as opposed to hard-wiring models with precalibrated correlations. The paper presents progress in applying DNNs to model Reynolds stress using two machine learning (ML) frameworks. A novel flow feature coverage mapping is proposed to quantify the physics coverage of DL-based closures. It can be used to examine the sufficiency of training data and input flow features for data-driven turbulence models. The case of a backward-facing step is formulated to demonstrate that not only can DNNs discover underlying correlation behind fluid data but also they can be implemented in RANS to predict flow characteristics without numerical stability issues. Finally, the presented research is a crucial stepping-stone toward the data-driven turbulence modeling, which potentially benefits the design of data-driven experiments that can be used to validate fluid models with ML-based fluid closures.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty
The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.
42 ENGINEERING↗
SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics
We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.
• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5
Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Mathematical Model of Breast Tumor Progression Based on Immune Infiltration
Breast cancer is the most prominent type of cancer among women. Understanding the microenvironment of breast cancer and the interactions between cells and cytokines will lead to better treatment approaches for patients. In this study, we developed a data-driven mathematical model to investigate the dynamics of key cells and cytokines involved in breast cancer development. We used gene expression profiles of tumors to estimate the relative abundance of each immune cell and group patients based on their immune patterns. Dynamical results show the complex interplay between cells and molecules, and sensitivity analysis emphasizes the direct effects of macrophages and adipocytes on cancer cell growth. In addition, we observed the dual effect of IFN-γ on cancer proliferation, either through direct inhibition of cancer cells or by increasing the cytotoxicity of CD8+ T-cells.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Classification and regression models of audio and vibration signals for machine state monitoring in precision machining systems
Here we present a data-driven method for monitoring machine status in manufacturing processes. Audio and vibration data from precision machining are used for inference in two operating scenarios: (a) variable machine health states (anomaly detection); and (b) settings of machine operation (state estimation). Audio and vibration signals are first processed through Fast Fourier Transform and Principal Component Analysis to extract transformed and informative features. These features are then used in the training of classification and regression models for machine state monitoring. Specifically, three classifiers (K-nearest neighbors, convolutional neural networks and support vector machines) and two regressors (support vector regression and neural network regression) were explored, in terms of their accuracy in machine state prediction. It is shown that the audio and vibration signals are sufficiently rich in information about the machine that 100% state classification accuracy could be accomplished. Data fusion was also explored, showing overall superior accuracy of data-driven regression models.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Acceleration of Power System Dynamic Simulations Using a Deep Equilibrium Layer and Neural ODE Surrogate
The dominant paradigm for power system dynamic simulation is to build system-level simulations by combining physics-based models of individual components. The sheer size of the system along with the rapid integration of inverter-based resources exacerbates the computational burden of running time domain simulations. Here, in this paper, we propose a data-driven surrogate model based on implicit machine learningspecifically deep equilibrium layers and neural ordinary differential equationsto learn a reduced order model of a portion of the full underlying system. The data-driven surrogate achieves similar accuracy and reduction in simulation time compared to a physics-based surrogate, without the constraint of requiring detailed knowledge of the underlying dynamic models. This work also establishes key requirements needed to integrate the surrogate into existing simulation workflows; the proposed surrogate is initialized to a steady state operating point that matches the power flow solution by design.
Neural ordinary differential equations↗
Data-driven recovery of hidden physics in reduced order modeling of fluid flows
In this article, we introduce a modular hybrid analysis and modeling (HAM) approach to account for hidden physics in reduced order modeling (ROM) of parameterized systems relevant to fluid dynamics. The hybrid ROM framework is based on using first principles to model the known physics in conjunction with utilizing the data-driven machine learning tools to model the remaining residual that is hidden in data. This framework employs proper orthogonal decomposition as a compression tool to construct orthonormal bases and Galerkin projection (GP) as a model to build the dynamical core of the system. Our proposed methodology hence compensates structural or epistemic uncertainties in models and utilizes the observed data snapshots to compute true modal coefficients spanned by these bases. The GP model is then corrected at every time step with a data-driven rectification using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture to incorporate hidden physics. A Grassmannian manifold approach is also adopted for interpolating basis functions to unseen parametric conditions. The control parameter governing the system's behavior is thus implicitly considered through true modal coefficients as input features to the LSTM network. The effectiveness of the HAM approach is then discussed through illustrative examples that are generated synthetically to take hidden physics into account. Furthermore, our approach thus provides insights addressing a fundamental limitation of the physics-based models when the governing equations are incomplete to represent underlying physical processes.
42 ENGINEERING↗