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Secondary Volcanically-Induced Lunar Atmosphere and Lunar Volatiles: 3-D Modeling and Analysis

The fact that the Moon could have a transient secondary atmosphere due to volcanic outgassing has been known for some time, though typically such an atmosphere was believed to be extremely thin (~10-8 bar) [1]. But recent research by Needham and Kring (NK) [2] suggests that during the peak of volcanic activity ~3.5 Ga such a volcanically-outgassed atmosphere could reach ~10-2 bar of surface pressure. In similar research Wilson et al. [3] proposed a more conservative estimate, arguing that the thickness of such an atmosphere would depend on the intervals between major eruptions and may not exceed microbar densities. In either case a collisional atmosphere could be present, which would control transport of outgassed volatiles (such as H2O) and their deposition in polar regions, where they could be preserved until modern day frozen in permanently shadowed regions (PSR) or buried beneath the regolith. Here we study such a hypothetical atmosphere to investigate its stability, meteorological properties and the effect on transport of volatiles. We use the ROCKE-3D planetary 3-D General Circulation Model (GCM)[4]. The insolation and orbital parameters were set to conditions 3.5 Ga. The atmospheric composition, based on the list of outgassed species presented by NK in combination with our estimates for atmospheric escape, condensation and the results from our 1-D chemistry model, was chosen to be either CO-dominated or CO2-dominated (depending on atmospheric temperature). In this study we restricted ourselves to relatively "thick" lunar atmospheres of 1-10 mb, though we believe that our results will scale to thinner atmospheres as well. We present the results for ground and atmospheric temperature for modeled atmospheres over a wide parameter space. In particular we consider different atmospheric compositions (CO or CO2 dominated), a set of atmospheric pressures from 1 mb to 10 mb and a set of obliquities from 0o to 40o. We also present an experiment of a single major eruption [5] and show that in just 3 years ~80% of the outgassed water is deposited in polar regions. This demonstrates the efficiency of such an atmosphere in delivering volatiles. We argue that a secondary lunar atmosphere could play a significant role in forming volatile deposits currently observed in the polar regions of the Moon.

Lunar atmospheres↗

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Integrated Bosch Process System Models for In-Situ Oxygen and Carbon Production

In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) technology is a vital component to NASA’s mission of a sustainable presence on the Moon and Mars. Local resources can be leveraged to reduce resupply frequency and mass. Elements of the Bosch process, combined with the carbothermal reduction process, can produce oxygen on the lunar surface with minimal consumables. The Bosch process can also produce oxygen on the Martian surface by using the CO 2 -rich environment. Between both systems, adsorption pump, solar thermal energy, carbon formation reactor, and water recovery subsystems are modeled and integrated to create a functional model in MATLAB software. The model is used to simulate performance of the system and reduce mass, power, and volume requirements. This integrated system model provides a tool to scale ISRU technologies for oxygen and carbon production. The MATLAB model is created by developing a system of independent subsystem models that are solved for their quasi-steady state values which can be integrated with respect to time to determine the change in current states. A flexible time stepping method is used to ensure a high level of accuracy during periods of rapid change while still making use of a simple explicit integration method. The flexible time step is calculated for each independent subsystem and the minimum value from those is used as the overall time step. A flexible time step is calculated by dividing a resolution value, or the maximum change per time step, by the variables current rate of change. The maximum value from all points in space is used for subsystem models that contain multiple values. The process is done for every variable that is being monitored in each subsystem and the global minimum is used as that iteration’s timestep. Several assumptions used in the MATLAB model for fluid flow dynamics, such as 1-D gas flow through the sorption pump, are supported by modeling in Ansys Fluent software. The Lunar oxygen production system is outlined in Fig. 1. The carbothermal reduction subsystem uses solar energy to heat a mixture of lunar regolith and carbon powder to produce carbon monoxide. To begin, the carbon monoxide feeds to the modified Bosch subsystem along with hydrogen gas. The reactants then enter the carbon formation reactor where water and carbon powder are produced. Solar thermal energy is used to add energy to the reactor, but waste heat from the carbothermal process is another potential heat source. The water is collected and electrolyzed to produce hydrogen which reenters the Bosch subsystem, and the oxygen is stored for downstream use. The carbon powder is collected and feeds back into the carbothermal subsystem. The Martian oxygen production system uses the full Bosch process and is outlined in Fig 2. A CO 2 adsorption pump thermally cycles to scrub and pressurize CO 2 from the environment. Along with an initial supply of hydrogen, the reactants enter the Reverse Water Gas Shift Reactor (RWGSR) which produces carbon monoxide and water. Carbon monoxide and unreacted hydrogen enter the carbon formation reactor to produce water and carbon powder. The water is collected from both reactors and electrolyzed to reintroduce hydrogen and store oxygen for propellant production or life support. Carbon is removed from the carbon formation reactor and stored. The adsorption pump utilizes rapid cycle temperature swings within a stack of zeolite coated surfaces. The subsystem model solves 1-D quasi-steady conservation laws of the quasi-steady form, shown in Eq. 1, for the gas stream and heat exchange liquid to predict performance parameters such as breakthrough capacity and optimum cycle time. The source term S is used to capture interactions between the fluid flows and the sorbent. A quasi-steady-state scheme is used where no time derivatives appear in the governing equations, except for those in the source terms. This results in an autonomous system, where ∂F/∂x = ƒ(F). The fluxes F are provided at the inlet, and an explicit method is used to solve for the spatial distribution of F. The heat and mass flows to the sorbent are then extracted from the source terms. These flows are numerically integrated to produce a 1-D solution for the system’s state as a function of both time and space. The body of the adsorption pump is separated into two semi-independent models: the heat exchanger fluid flow and gas flow through the zeolite coated surfaces. Both models are solved using the above-described method to find a 1-D solution as a function of space and interact only once a timestep is taken. The interaction point is the sorbent through which all heat transfer between the two models must occur. Sorbent mass adsorption is calculated using the Lagergren model, shown in Eq. 2, where the transfer coefficient, λ D , is found by solving a system of nondimensionalized equations derived by using the heat and mass transfer analogy for transport phenomena. Using Grade 544 Type 13X zeolite as the sorbent material, the equilibrium concentration, θ eq , is calculated using the k-site Langmuir isotherm and fit parameters. Additionally, the enthalpy of adsorption used in the model is computed by interpolation of available data [1]. The subsystem model was validated using the Rapid Cycle Temperature Swing Adsorption (RC-TSA) pump. The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The solar thermal energy subsystem focuses on a solar concentrator concept with a heat exchanger to heat the reactants before entering the carbon formation reactor. The subsystem model assumes a fixed solar flux and reflector efficiency to calculate the reactant temperature given the incoming temperature, pressure, and exchanger geometry. The receiver is a custom manufactured series of copper blocks with serpentine channels to increase its surface area and the residence time of the reactants to heat up to 550 °C. The subsystem model was validated using a heat exchanger developed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC).

In situ Resource Utilization↗

Spray Combustion Modeling with VOF and Finite-Rate Chemistry

A spray atomization and combustion model is developed based on the volume-of-fluid (VOF) transport equation with finite-rate chemistry model. The gas-liquid interface mass, momentum and energy conservation laws are modeled by continuum surface force mechanisms. A new solution method is developed such that the present VOF model can be applied for all-speed range flows. The objectives of the present study are: (1) to develop and verify the fractional volume-of-fluid (VOF) cell partitioning approach into a predictor-corrector algorithm to deal with multiphase (gas-liquid) free surface flow problems; (2) to implement the developed unified algorithm in a general purpose computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, Finite Difference Navier-Stokes (FDNS), with droplet dynamics and finite-rate chemistry models; and (3) to demonstrate the effectiveness of the present approach by simulating benchmark problems of jet breakup/spray atomization and combustion. Modeling multiphase fluid flows poses a significant challenge because a required boundary must be applied to a transient, irregular surface that is discontinuous, and the flow regimes considered can range from incompressible to highspeed compressible flows. The flow-process modeling is further complicated by surface tension, interfacial heat and mass transfer, spray formation and turbulence, and their interactions. The major contribution of the present method is to combine the novel feature of the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method and the Eulerian/Lagrangian method into a unified algorithm for efficient noniterative, time-accurate calculations of multiphase free surface flows valid at all speeds. The proposed method reformulated the VOF equation to strongly couple two distinct phases (liquid and gas), and tracks droplets on a Lagrangian frame when spray model is required, using a unified predictor-corrector technique to account for the non-linear linkages through the convective contributions of VOF. The discontinuities within the sharp interface will be modeled as a volume force to avoid stiffness. Formations of droplets, tracking of droplet dynamics and modeling of the droplet breakup/evaporation, are handled through the same unified predictor-corrector procedure. Thus the new algorithm is non-iterative and is flexible for general geometries with arbitrarily complex topology in free surfaces. The FDNS finite-difference Navier-Stokes code is employed as the baseline of the current development. Benchmark test cases of shear coaxial LOX/H2 liquid jet with atomization/combustion and impinging jet test cases are investigated in the present work. Preliminary data comparisons show good qualitative agreement between data and the present analysis. It is indicative from these results that the present method has great potential to become a general engineering design analysis and diagnostics tool for problems involving spray combustion.

Chen, Yen-Sen↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

Systemic Alterations with Spaceflight Associated Health Risks Originating from Both Circulating miRNAs and Mitochondrial Biology

The many known health risks currently associated with space travel include increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, central nervous system related diseases, muscle degeneration, and changes with host-gut microbiome interactions that can have profound impact with these and other health risks. The majority of the risk from space travel stem of the two components of the space environment which are microgravity and radiation. Two specific systemic effects have been uncovered by us to impact the body as a whole due to the space environment. One factor is related from our earlier work (Beheshti et al, PLOS One, 2018), we predicted that there is a systemic component of the host that causes general increased health risks due to spaceflight driven by a circulating microRNA (miRNA) signature consisting of 13 miRNAs that directly regulates both p53 and TGF1. MiRNAs are small non-coding RNA molecules with a negative and post-transcriptional regulation on gene expression) are increasingly recognized as major systemic regulators of responses to stressors, including microgravity, oxidative stress, and DNA damage. In addition, due to the size and stability of miRNAs, it is known that miRNAs can circulate throughout the body and have been found in the majority of the bodily fluids including blood, urine, saliva, and tears. Here, we start to dissect the actual impact of this miRNA signature on both the radiation and microgravity components and prove that this miRNA signature actually exists in the circulation of a host. The other systemic factor we uncovered was the impact the mitochondria on the whole body due to spaceflight. We hypothesize that spaceflight may promote a physiologic response driven by systemic mitochondria pathways leading to metabolic disorder stemming from the liver and directly impacting other organs and tissues. A systems biology method was implemented utilizing GeneLab datasets that involved in vitro experiments performed at the low Earth orbit, in vivo experiments involving mice flown to space, and finally human physiological data from astronauts. A comprehensive multi-omics approach was implemented which involved correlating transcriptomic analysis with proteomics, metabolomics, and methylation analysis. This approach led us to confirm our hypothesis that a systemic mitochondrial driven response is responsible for increasing potential health risk and is conserved from the in vitro studies, to the in vivo studies, and finally confirmed in astronauts.

Radiation↗

Next Generation Microbiology Requirements

As humans continue to explore deep into space, microorganisms will travel with them. The primary means to mitigate the risk of infectious disease are a combination of prudent spacecraft design and rigorous operational controls. The effectiveness of these methods are evaluated by microbiological monitoring of spacecraft, food, water, and the crew that is performed preflight, in-flight, and post-flight. Current NASA requirements associated with microbiological monitoring are based on culture-based methodology where microorganisms are grown on a semi-solid growth medium and enumerated. Subsequent identification of the organisms requires specialized labor and large equipment, which historically has been performed on Earth. Requirements that rely strictly on culture-based units limit the use of non-culture based monitoring technology. Specifically, the culture-based "measurement criteria" are Colony Forming Units (CFU, representing the growth of one microorganism at a single location on the agar medium) per a given volume, area, or sample size. As the CFU unit by definition is culture-based, these requirements limit alternative technologies for spaceflight applications. As spaceflight missions such as those to Mars extend further into space, culture-based technology will become difficult to implement due to the (a) limited shelf life of the culture media, (b) mass/volume necessary to carry these consumables, and (c) problems associated with the production of biohazardous material in the habitable volume of the spacecraft. In addition, an extensive amount of new knowledge has been obtained during the Space Shuttle, NASA-Mir, and International Space Station Programs, which gave direction for new or modified microbial control requirements for vehicle design and mission operations. The goal of this task is to develop and recommend a new set of requirements for vehicle design and mission operations, including microbiological monitoring, based upon "lessons learned" and new technology. During 2011, this study focused on evaluating potable water requirements by assembling a forum of internal and external experts from NASA, other federal agencies, and academia. Key findings from this forum included: (1) Preventive design and operational strategies should be stringent and the primary focus of NASA's mitigation efforts, as they are cost effective and can be attained with conventional technology. (2) Microbial monitoring hardware should be simple and must be able to measure the viability of microorganisms in a sample. Multiple monitoring technologies can be utilized as long as at the microorganisms being identified can also be confirmed as viable. (3) Evidence showing alterations in the crew immune function and microbial virulence complicates risk assessments and creates the need for very conservative requirements. (4) One key source of infectious agents will always be the crew, and appropriate preventative measures should be taken preflight. (5) Water systems should be thoroughly disinfected (sterilized if possible) preflight and retain a residual biocide throughout the mission. Future forums will cover requirements for other types of samples, specifically spaceflight food and environmental samples, such as vehicle air and vehicle and cargo surfaces. An interim report on the potable water forum has been delivered to the Human Research Program with a final report on the recommendations for all sample types being delivered in September 2013.

Ott, C. M.↗

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Space Radiation Cancer, Circulatory Disease and CNS Risks for Near Earth Asteroid and Mars Missions: Uncertainty Estimates for Never-Smokers

The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

In Situ Identification of Mineral Resources with an X-Ray-Optical "Hands-Lens" Instrument

The recognition of material resources on a planetary surface requires exploration strategies not dissimilar to those employed by early field geologists who searched for ore deposits primarily from surface clues. In order to determine the location of mineral ores or other materials, it will be necessary to characterize host terranes at regional or subregional scales. This requires geographically broad surveys in which statistically significant numbers of samples are rapidly scanned from a roving platform. To enable broad-scale, yet power-conservative planetary-surface exploration, we are developing an instrument that combines x-ray diffractometry (XRD), x-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF), and optical capabilities; the instrument can be deployed at the end of a rover's robotic arm, without the need for sample capture or preparation. The instrument provides XRD data for identification of mineral species and lithological types; diffractometry of minerals is conducted by ascertaining the characteristic lattice parameters or "d-spacings" of mineral compounds. D-spacings of 1.4 to 25 angstroms can be determined to include the large molecular structures of hydrated minerals such as clays. The XRF data will identify elements ranging from carbon (Atomic Number = 6) to elements as heavy as barium (Atomic Number = 56). While a sample is being x-rayed, the instrument simultaneously acquires an optical image of the sample surface at magnifications from lx to at least 50x (200x being feasible, depending on the sample surface). We believe that imaging the sample is extremely important as corroborative sample-identification data (the need for this capability having been illustrated by the experience of the Pathfinder rover). Very few geologists would rely on instrument data for sample identification without having seen the sample. Visual inspection provides critical recognition data such as texture, crystallinity, granularity, porosity, vesicularity, color, lustre, opacity, and so forth. These data can immediately distinguish sedimentary from igneous rocks, for example, and can thus eliminate geochemical or mineral ambiguities arising, say between arkose and granite. It would be important to know if the clay being analyzed was part of a uniform varve deposit laid down in a quiescent lake, or the matrix of a megabreccia diamictite deposited as a catastrophic impact ejecta blanket. The unique design of the instrument, which combines Debye-Scherrer geometry with elements of standard goniometry, negates the need for sample preparation of any kind, and thus negates the need for power-hungry and mechanically-complex sampling systems that would have to chip, crush, sieve, and mount the sample for x-ray analysis. Instead, the instrument is simply rested on the sample surface of interest (like a hand lens); the device can interrogate rough rock surfaces, coarse granular material, or fine rock flour. A breadboard version of the instrument has been deployed from the robotic arm of the Marsokhod rover in field trials at NASA Ames, where large vesicular boulders were x-rayed to demonstrate the functionality of the instrument design, and the ability of such a device to comply with constraints imposed by a roving platform. Currently under development is a flight prototype concept of this instrument that will weigh 0.3 kg, using about 4500 J of energy per sample analysis. It requires about 5 min. for XRD analysis, and about 30 min. for XRF interrogation. Its small mass and rugged design make it ideal for deployment on small rovers of the type currently envisaged for the exploration of Mars (e.g., Sojourner-scale platforms). The design utilizes a monolithic P-N junction photodiode pixel array for XRD, a Si PIN photodiode/avalanche photodiode system for XRF, and an endoscopic imaging camera system unobtrusively embedded between the detectors and the x-ray source (the endoscope with its board-mounted camera can be adapted for IR light in addition to visible wavelenths. A rugged, miniature (7 cu cm) x-ray source for the instrument has already been breadboarded.

Marshall, J.↗

Launch Complex 39B, SWMU 009 Air Sparging System Expansion Implementation Work Plan Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This Implementation Work Plan (IWP) for expansion of the Air Sparging (AS) system at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), presents the design and coordination specifics to expand the existing AS Interim Measure (IM) at LC39B located at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The existing AS system at LC39B was installed in 2017 and included 279 AS wells. LC39B has been designated as Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 009 under the KSC Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. Expansion of the AS IM will include installation of an additional five AS wells to depths of approximately 13 and 17 feet below land surface (bls) to remediate contaminated groundwater identified northwest of the launch pad, near the liquid oxygen (LOX) tank. The expansion will target concentrations of cis-1,2-dichloroethene (cDCE) and vinyl chloride (VC) greater than Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) Natural Attenuation Default Concentrations (NADCs) that were identified during direct push technology (DPT) sampling events between 2019-2022 in shallow intervals between 8 and 16 feet bls. The objective for this expansion is to remediate contaminated groundwater within the treatment zone to below NADCs to support transition to monitored natural attenuation (MNA) through a long-term monitoring (LTM) program. This expansion will treat approximately 0.07-acres of residual groundwater contamination. The IWP design for this expansion will utilize the existing AS system trailer that is already onsite and operating. The five new AS expansion wells will be integrated into the existing Zone Z4 distribution manifold to deliver compressed air to the new AS wells. To deliver airflow, three existing lateral lines will be split in the field at a lateral split junction point (using 2-way or 3-way splits). Each split lateral will supply air to AS wells at the same depth interval to minimize preferential pathways. The trenching layout for the new AS wells was developed to minimize ground disturbance due to the amount of utilities in the area. One new monitoring well will also be installed and added to LC39B’s performance monitoring program to evaluate the effectiveness of the AS system expansion. This well will be sampled on a semi-annual basis for volatile organic compounds, with results evaluated to determine if system adjustments may be required. The main components of this IWP were presented to the KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) at the October 2022 Meeting (Meeting 2210-M05). DPT delineation data from the LOX area were also presented, which included some inferred boundaries due to physical restrictions of the LOX tank and associated concrete pad and infrastructure. Planned monitoring well sampling in this area will help determine if back-diffusion may be occurring from beneath the pad. Additionally, based on potential petroleum odors and staining identified at two DPT locations during the January 2022 DPT event in the 10-16 feet bls range, a KSCRT action item was assigned during the October 2022 meeting to collect soil samples for petroleum compounds if similar odors or staining are identified during IM implementation. Construction completion and performance monitoring will be incorporated into LC39B’s groundwater monitoring reports, which are currently submitted on an annual basis to FDEP to document operation and maintenance activities and results from the AS IM.

Deborah M. Wilson↗

Wilson Corners Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001: 2021 Annual Long-Term Monitoring Report, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This report presents a summary of the long-term monitoring (LTM) activities that occurred in 2021 at Wilson Corners, Solid Waste Management Unit (SWMU) 001, at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. The site is monitored under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program. Adaptive site management is being utilized through ongoing assessment, design, and interim measures (IM). Annual LTM of the groundwater is also being conducted at the site. This approach also meets the requirements of Chapter 62-780, Florida Administrative Code (F.A.C.). The goal of LTM at this site is threefold: to determine groundwater flow characteristics, monitor the downgradient concentration trends, and monitor select locations internal to the groundwater plume. Every 5 years, upgradient and side-gradient monitoring wells are sampled to verify delineation. The last time this was performed was in 2015. The sampling of these wells in 2020 was replaced with the direct push technology (DPT) investigations completed in October 2020 and April 2021. This DPT groundwater data was presented in an Advance Data Package (ADP) in September 2021 and discussed in the Implementation Work Plan (IWP) dated November 2021 for installation of an air sparge (AS) system. Based on results from groundwater sampling activities performed during the previous reporting period, including the 2020 and 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, it was determined that the LTM sampling plan was no longer meeting the goal of LTM because delineation was not verified. The 2021 LTM sampling plan was modified to include the sampling of monitoring wells located around the perimeter of the low concentration plume (LCP); the area with concentrations of contaminants of concern [COCs] greater than Groundwater Cleanup Target Levels [GCTLs]), and sampling of 10 monitoring wells proposed for installation (April 2021 KSC Remediation Team (KSCRT) Meeting, Decision 2104-D32). The modified LTM plan received team consensus at the September 2021 KSCRT Meeting (Decision Number 2109-D03), and sampling of the existing monitoring wells was completed in December 2021. The proposed monitoring wells are planned for installation in late 2022, concurrent with ongoing IM construction activities. December 2021 LTM data was presented at the May 2022 KSCRT Meeting, and activities are summarized in this report. The activities presented in this report include the December 2021 groundwater gauging of 42 monitoring wells and sampling of 44 monitoring wells. During the December 2021 event, the low flow sampling method was used, and samples were analyzed for a select list of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including 1,1,2-trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane (Freon 113). The following conclusions can be made based on the 2021 LTM results: - In December 2021, groundwater flow for the site was generally to the west at all intervals. This is generally consistent with historical observations at the site, with the exception of a southwest and southeast flow component observed at 34 to 48 feet below land surface (bls). - The vertical extent of VOCs was historically delineated by monitoring wells screened greater than 48 feet bls. The results from the two vertical extent monitoring wells, WILC-MW0078 (screened 65 to 70 feet bls) and WILC-MW0130 (screened 56 to 66 feet bls) that were sampled during the 2021 LTM indicate that groundwater vinyl chloride (VC) concentrations in both wells were greater than the GCTL. The Remediation Team has previously agreed to delay deeper DPT investigations in this area to prevent the creation of additional pathways for vertical migration. - The LCP continues to extend both horizontally, predominantly to the west, and vertically beyond the current monitoring well network, with some retraction observed to the southeast. Evaluation of this data combined with data from the 2020 and 2021 DPT sampling event indicate that the LCP encompasses an estimated 20.7 acres based on an expanded sampling area, as compared to the 2020 LCP footprint of 17.0 acres. - Freon 113 was not detected above GCTLs during the 2021 LTM event. Based on groundwater sampling activities performed in 2021, including April 2021 DPT groundwater sampling, the following recommendations are provided: - Perform the next LTM sampling event, targeted to occur in 2023, concurrently with the IM baseline sampling prior to AS system installation; - Include sampling from nine monitoring wells that are planned to be installed in late 2022, concurrent with upcoming IM construction activities. Installation of one deep vertical well, screened 70 to 80 feet bls, will be delayed to prevent the creation of an additional pathway for vertical migration; - Continue to sample under the modified annual LTM plan as presented in Table 4-1 concurrently with IM baseline sampling; and - Once the AS system install and start-up is complete, select monitoring wells from the LTM program will transition into the performance monitoring plan, and LTM will be temporarily discontinued. Performance monitoring will be performed quarterly, and the monitoring well network will be evaluated following the first performance monitoring sampling event.

long-term monitoring (LTM)↗