LDRD 20190608ER: Diagnosing Near-Future Changes in Arctic Sea Ice and Ocean Conditions
Environmental changes in the Arctic present opportunities and increased hazards as potential shipping corridors open. We apply novel statistical techniques to simultaneously characterize multiple physical properties and uncertainties relevant for Arctic shipping, analyzing existing model projections to understand the likelihood of encountering high wind and low ice conditions along potential transportation routes through the Arctic Ocean. We assess the quality of Department of Energy (DOE) simulations against observed data, for these purposes. We find that the Arctic system is highly variable, but its large-scale patterns are captured by the models, allowing us to consider the two major shipping routes along Arctic coasts: the Northern Sea Route on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean, and the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Our work highlights the usefulness and promise of DOE’s new modeling system (E3SM) as well as limitations of the models and observed data, such as resolution, differing types of information available from models and measurements, and challenges for quantifying uncertainty and bias. A procedure developed to increase predictability in Community Earth System Model simulations could be beneficial for E3SM. This research provides insight into Arctic trends and a baseline to articulate future model development needs.