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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Stage Estimation and Variance Modeling for Latency-Constrained Variational Quantum Algorithms

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has enjoyed increasing attention in noisy, intermediate-scale quantum computing with its application to combinatorial optimization problems. QAOA has the potential to demonstrate a quantum advantage for NP-hard combinatorial optimization problems. As a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm, the classical component of QAOA resembles a simulation optimization problem in which the simulation outcomes are attainable only through a quantum computer. The simulation that derives from QAOA exhibits two unique features that can have a substantial impact on the optimization process: (i) the variance of the stochastic objective values typically decreases in proportion to the optimality gap, and (ii) querying samples from a quantum computer introduces an additional latency overhead. In this paper, we introduce a novel stochastic trust-region method derived from a derivative-free, adaptive sampling trust-region optimization method intended to efficiently solve the classical optimization problem in QAOA by explicitly taking into account the two mentioned characteristics. The key idea behind the proposed algorithm involves constructing two separate local models in each iteration: a model of the objective function and a model of the variance of the objective function. Exploiting the variance model allows us to restrict the number of communications with the quantum computer and also helps navigate the nonconvex objective landscapes typical in QAOA optimization problems. In conclusion, we numerically demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm using the SimOpt library and Qiskit when we consider a metric of computational burden that explicitly accounts for communication costs.

Derivative-free Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constraining the destruction rate of K 40 in stellar nucleosynthesis through the study of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction

Background: We present that K 40 plays a significant role in the radiogenic heating of Earth-like exoplanets, which can affect the development of a habitable environment on their surfaces. The initial amount of K 40 in the interior of these planets depends on the composition of the interstellar clouds from which they formed. Within this context, nuclear reactions that regulate the production of K 40 during stellar evolution can play a critical role. Purpose: In this study, we constrain for the first time the astrophysical reaction rate of K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 , which is responsible for the destruction of K 40 during stellar nucleosynthesis. We provide to the nuclear physics community high-resolution data on the cross section and angular distribution of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction. These are important to various applications involving Ar 40 . The associated reaction rate of the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 process addresses a reaction rate gap in the Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics REACLIB database in the region of intermediate-mass isotopes. Methods: We performed differential cross-section measurements on the Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 reaction, for six energies in the center-of-mass system between 3.2 and 4.0 MeV and various angles between 0 ° and 135 ° . The experiment took place at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University using the beam swinger target location and a standard neutron time-of-flight technique. We extracted total and partial cross sections by integrating the double differential cross sections we measured. Results: The total and partial cross sections varied with energy due to the contribution from isobaric analog states and Ericson type fluctuations. The energy-averaged neutron angular distributions were symmetrical relative to 90 ° . Based on the experimental data, local transmission coefficients were extracted and were used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates of Ar 40 ( p , n ) K 40 and K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reactions. The new rates were found to vary significantly from the theoretical rates in the REACLIB library. We implemented the new rates in network calculations to study nucleosynthesis via the slow neutron capture process, and we found that the produced abundance of K 40 is reduced by up to 10% compared to calculations with the library rates. At the same time, the above result removes a significant portion of the previous theoretical uncertainty on the K 40 yields from stellar evolution calculations. Conclusions: Our results support a destruction rate of K 40 in massive stars via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction that is larger compared to previous estimates. The rate of K 40 destruction via the K 40 ( n , p ) Ar 40 reaction now has a dramatically reduced uncertainty based on our measurement. Lastly, this result directly affects the predicted stellar yields of K 40 from nucleosynthesis, which is a critical input parameter for the galactic chemical evolution models that are currently employed for the study of significant properties of exoplanets.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Detection of Orbital Motion for HD 106906 b: A Wide-separation Exoplanet on a Planet Nine–like Orbit

HD 106906 is a 15 Myr old short-period (49 days) spectroscopic binary that hosts a wide-separation (737 au) planetary-mass (∼11 M{sub Jup}) common proper motion companion, HD 106906 b. Additionally, a circumbinary debris disk is resolved at optical and near-infrared wavelengths that exhibits a significant asymmetry at wide separations that may be driven by gravitational perturbations from the planet. In this study we present the first detection of orbital motion of HD 106906 b using Hubble Space Telescope images spanning a 14 yr period. We achieve high astrometric precision by cross-registering the locations of background stars with the Gaia astrometric catalog, providing the subpixel location of HD 106906 that is either saturated or obscured by coronagraphic optical elements. We measure a statistically significant 31.8 ± 7.0 mas eastward motion of the planet between the two most constraining measurements taken in 2004 and 2017. This motion enables a measurement of the inclination between the orbit of the planet and the inner debris disk of either 36{sub −14}{sup +27} deg or 44{sub −14}{sup +27} deg, depending on the true orientation of the orbit of the planet. There is a strong negative correlation between periastron and mutual inclination; orbits with smaller periastra are more misaligned with the disk plane. With a periastron of 510{sub −320}{sup +480} au, HD 106906 b is likely detached from the planetary region within 100 au radius, showing that a Planet Nine–like architecture can be established very early in the evolution of a planetary system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

DESI Observations of the Andromeda Galaxy: Revealing the Immigration History of Our Nearest Neighbor

Abstract We present Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations of the inner halo of M31, which reveal the kinematics of a recent merger—a galactic immigration event—in exquisite detail. Of the 11,416 sources studied in 3.75 hr of on-sky exposure time, 7438 are M31 sources with well-measured radial velocities. The observations reveal intricate coherent kinematic structure in the positions and velocities of individual stars: streams, wedges, and chevrons. While hints of coherent structures have been previously detected in M31, this is the first time they have been seen with such detail and clarity in a galaxy beyond the Milky Way. We find clear kinematic evidence for shell structures in the Giant Stellar Stream, the Northeast Shelf, and Western Shelf regions. The kinematics are remarkably similar to the predictions of dynamical models constructed to explain the spatial morphology of the inner halo. The results are consistent with the interpretation that much of the substructure in the inner halo of M31 is produced by a single galactic immigration event 1–2 Gyr ago. Significant numbers of metal-rich stars ([Fe/H] > − 0.5) are present in all of the detected substructures, suggesting that the immigrating galaxy had an extended star formation history. We also investigate the ability of the shells and Giant Stellar Stream to constrain the gravitational potential of M31, and estimate the mass within a projected radius of 125 kpc to be log 10 M NFW ( < 125 kpc ) / M ⊙ = 11.80 − 0.10 + 0.12 . The results herald a new era in our ability to study stars on a galactic scale and the immigration histories of galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Faster Form of Electron Magnetic Reconnection with a Finite Length X-Line

Observations in Earth’s turbulent magnetosheath downstream of a quasiparallel bow shock reveal a prevalence of electron-scale current sheets favorable for electron-only reconnection where ions are not coupled to the reconnecting magnetic fields. In small-scale turbulence, magnetic structures associated with intense current sheets are limited in all dimensions. And since the coupling of ions are constrained by a minimum length scale, the dynamics of electron reconnection is likely to be 3D. Here, both 2D and 3D kinetic particle-in-cell simulations are used to investigate electron-only reconnection, focusing on the reconnection rate and associated electron flows. A new form of 3D electron-only reconnection spontaneously develops where the magnetic X-line is localized in the out-of-plane (z) direction. The consequence is an enhancement of the reconnection rate compared with two dimensions, which results from differential mass flux out of the diffusion region along z, enabling a faster inflow velocity and thus a larger reconnection rate. This outflow along z is due to the magnetic tension force in z just as the conventional exhaust tension force, allowing particles to leave the diffusion region efficiently along z unlike the 2D configuration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Active site plasticity and possible modes of chemical inhibition of the human DNA deaminase APOBEC3B

The single-stranded DNA cytosine deaminase APOBEC3B (A3B) functions in innate immunity against viruses, but it is also strongly implicated in eliciting mutations in cancer genomes. Because of the critical role of A3B in promoting virus and tumor evolution, small molecule inhibitors are desirable. However, there is no reported structure for any of the APOBEC3-family enzymes in complex with a small molecule bound in the active site, which hampers the development of small molecules targeting A3B. Here we report high-resolution structures of an active A3B catalytic domain chimera with loop 7 residues exchanged with those from the corresponding region of APOBEC3G (A3G). The structures reveal novel open conformations lacking the catalytically essential zinc ion, with the highly conserved active site residues extensively rearranged. These inactive conformations are stabilized by 2-pyrimidone or an iodide ion bound in the active site. Molecular dynamics simulations corroborate the remarkable plasticity of the engineered active site and identify key interactions that stabilize the native A3B active site. These data provide insights into A3B active site dynamics and suggest possible modes of its inhibition by small molecules, which would aid in rational design of selective A3B inhibitors for constraining virus and tumor evolution.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Quantum Chaos through Microcanonical Distributions of Entanglement

A characteristic feature of “quantum chaotic” systems is that their eigenspectra and eigenstates display universal statistical properties described by random matrix theory (RMT). However, eigenstates of local systems also encode structure beyond RMT. To capture this feature, we introduce a framework that allows us to compare the properties of eigenstates in local systems with those of pure random states. In particular, our framework defines a notion of distance between quantum state ensembles that utilizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence to compare the microcanonical distribution of entanglement entropy (EE) of eigenstates with a reference RMT distribution generated by pure random states (with appropriate constraints). This notion gives rise to a quantitative metric for quantum chaos that not only accounts for averages of the distributions but also higher moments. The differences in moments are compared on a highly resolved scale set by the standard deviation of the RMT distribution, which is exponentially small in system size. As a result, the metric can distinguish between chaotic and integrable behaviors and, in addition, quantify and compare the of chaos (in terms of proximity to RMT behavior) between two systems that are assumed to be chaotic. We implement our framework in local, minimally structured, Floquet random circuits, as well as a canonical family of many-body Hamiltonians, the mixed-field Ising model (MFIM). Importantly, for Hamiltonian systems, we find that the reference random distribution must be appropriately constrained to incorporate the effect of energy conservation in order to describe the ensemble properties of midspectrum eigenstates. The metric captures deviations from RMT across all models and parameters, including those that have been previously identified as strongly chaotic, and for which other diagnostics of chaos such as level spacing statistics look strongly thermal. In Floquet circuits, the dominant source of deviations is the second moment of the distribution, and this persists for all system sizes. For the MFIM, we find significant variation of the KL divergence in parameter space. Notably, we find a small region where deviations from RMT are minimized, suggesting that “maximally chaotic” Hamiltonians may exist in fine-tuned pockets of parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Self-interacting sub-GeV dark matter with strong MeV gamma-ray

Sub-GeV dark matter (DM) with s-channel resonant self-scattering provides a promising framework for addressing small-scale structure problems. However, models that also account for the observed relic abundance through the same resonance are strongly constrained by current γ-ray observations, since the associated signals are significantly enhanced. To overcome this limitation, we propose a framework in which the relic abundance and self-scattering are governed independently by two distinct mediators. As a concrete realization, we present a singlet scalar DM model in which self-scattering is mediated by a vector boson associated with a gauged baryon number, while the relic density is determined by forbidden annihilation into dark Higgs bosons that generate the gauge boson mass. By imposing cosmological, experimental, and theoretical constraints, We identify viable parameter regions that reproduce the observed relic density, alleviate small-scale problems, and remain consistent with current bounds. Notably, the model predicts multiple distinctive MeV γ-ray signals, a significant fraction of which will be testable with next-generation MeV γ-ray telescopes, including the Compton Spectrometer and Imager (COSI).

Models for Dark Matter↗
DOE OSTI2020

Searches for physics beyond the standard model with the M T2 variable in hadronic final states with and without disappearing tracks in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

Two related searches for phenomena beyond the standard model (BSM) are performed using events with hadronic jets and significant transverse momentum imbalance. The results are based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in 2016-2018 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb$^{-1}$. The first search is inclusive, based on signal regions defined by the hadronic energy in the event, the jet multiplicity, the number of jets identified as originating from bottom quarks, and the value of the kinematic variable $M_\mathrm{T2}$ for events with at least two jets. For events with exactly one jet, the transverse momentum of the jet is used instead. The second search looks in addition for disappearing tracks produced by BSM long-lived charged particles that decay within the volume of the tracking detector. No excess event yield is observed above the predicted standard model background. This is used to constrain a range of BSM models that predict the following: the pair production of gluinos and squarks in the context of supersymmetry models conserving $R$-parity, with or without intermediate long-lived charginos produced in the decay chain; the resonant production of a colored scalar state decaying to a massive Dirac fermion and a quark; or the pair production of scalar and vector leptoquarks each decaying to a neutrino and a top, bottom, or light-flavor quark. In most of the cases, the results obtained are the most stringent constraints to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

CMB-PAInT: An inpainting tool for the cosmic microwave background

Abstract The presence of astrophysical emissions in microwave observations forces us to perform component separation to extract the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) signal. However, even in the most optimistic cases, there are still strongly contaminated regions, such as the Galactic plane or those with emission from extragalactic point sources, which require the use of a mask. Since many CMB analyses, especially the ones working in harmonic space, need the whole sky map, it is crucial to develop a reliable inpainting algorithm that replaces the values of the excluded pixels by others statistically compatible with the rest of the sky. This is especially important when working withQandUsky maps in order to obtainE- andB-mode maps which are free fromE-to-Bleakage. In this work we study a method based on Gaussian Constrained Realizations (GCR), that can deal with both intensity and polarization. Several tests have been performed to asses the validation of the method, including the study of the one-dimensional probability distribution function (1-PDF),E- andB-mode map reconstruction, and power spectra estimation. We have considered two scenarios for the input simulation: one case with only CMB signal and a second one including also Planck PR4 semi-realistic noise. Even if we are limited to low resolution maps, N side = 64 ifT,QandUare considered, we believe that this is a useful approach to be applied to future missions such as LiteBIRD, where the target are the largest scales.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Upper boundaries of active galactic nucleus regions in optical diagnostic diagrams

The distribution of galaxies in optical diagnostic diagrams can provide information about their physical parameters when compared with ionization models under proper assumptions. By using a sample of central emitting regions from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey (MaNGA), we find evidence of the existence of upper boundaries for narrow-line regions (NLRs) of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in optical Baldwin, Phillips & Terlevich (BPT) diagrams, especially in diagrams involving [Sii]λλ6716, 6731/Hα. Photoionization models can reproduce the boundaries well, as a consequence of the decrease of [Sii]λλ6716, 6731/Hα and [Oiii]λ5007/Hβ ratios at very high metallicity. Whilst the exact location of the upper boundary in the [Sii] BPT diagram depends only weakly on the electron density of the ionized cloud and the secondary nitrogen prescription, its dependence on the shapes of the input spectral energy distributions (SEDs) is much stronger. This allows us to constrain the power-law index of the AGN SED between 1 Ryd and ~100 Ryd to be less than or equal to -1.40 ± 0.05. The coverage of photoionization models in the [Nii] BPT diagram has a stronger dependence on the electron density and the secondary nitrogen prescription. With the density constrained by the [Sii] doublet ratio and the input SED constrained by the [Sii] BPT diagram, we find that the extent of the data in the [Nii] BPT diagram favours those prescriptions with high N/O ratios. Furthermore, although shock-ionized clouds can produce line ratios similar to those from photoionization, the resulting shapes of the upper boundaries, if they exist, would likely be different from those of photoionizing origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Standardizing Platinum Dainotti-correlated gamma-ray bursts, and using them with standardized Amati-correlated gamma-ray bursts to constrain cosmological model parameters

ABSTRACT We show that the Platinum gamma-ray burst (GRB) data compilation, probing the redshift range 0.553 ≤ z ≤ 5.0, obeys a cosmological-model-independent three-parameter Fundamental Plane (Dainotti) correlation and so is standardizable. While they probe the largely unexplored z ∼ 2.3–5 part of cosmological redshift space, the GRB cosmological parameter constraints are consistent with, but less precise than, those from a combination of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) and Hubble parameter [H(z)] data. In order to increase the precision of GRB-only cosmological constraints, we exclude common GRBs from the larger Amati-correlated A118 data set composed of 118 GRBs and jointly analyse the remaining 101 Amati-correlated GRBs with the 50 Platinum GRBs. This joint 151 GRB data set probes the largely unexplored z ∼ 2.3–8.2 region; the resulting GRB-only cosmological constraints are more restrictive, and consistent with, but less precise than, those from H(z) + BAO data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the Potential of Using Carbonyl Sulfide to Track the Urban Biosphere Signal

Abstract Cities are implementing additional urban green as a means to capture CO 2 and become more carbon neutral. However, cities are complex systems where anthropogenic and natural components of the CO 2 budget interact with each other, and the ability to measure the efficacy of such measures is still not properly addressed. There is still a high degree of uncertainty in determining the contribution of the vegetation signal, which furthermore confounds the use of CO 2 mole fraction measurements for inferring anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 . Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a tracer of photosynthesis which can aid in constraining the biosphere signal. This study explores the potential of using OCS to track the urban biosphere signal. We used the Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) to simulate the OCS concentrations and the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach ecosystem model to simulate global CO 2 fluxes over the Bay Area of San Francisco during March 2015. Two observation towers provided measurements of OCS and CO 2 : The Sutro tower in San Francisco (upwind from the area of study providing background observations), and a tower located at Sandia National Laboratories in Livermore (downwind of the highly urbanized San Francisco region). Our results show that the STEM model works better under stable marine influence, and that the boundary layer height and entrainment are driving the diurnal changes in OCS and CO 2 at the downwind Sandia site. However, the STEM model needs to better represent the transport and boundary layer variability, and improved estimates of gross primary productivity for characterizing the urban biosphere signal are needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Relationships between Immersion Freezing and Crystal Habit for Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds—A Numerical Study

Abstract The number concentration of ice particles in Arctic mixed-phase clouds is a major controlling factor of cloud lifetime. The relationships between ice nucleation mode and ice crystal habit development are not yet constrained by observations. This study uses a habit-predicting microphysical scheme within a 3D large-eddy simulation model to evaluate the relationship between immersion freezing and ice habit in a simulated Arctic mixed-phase cloud case. Three immersion freezing parameterizations are considered: a volume-dependent freezing scheme (VF), a parameterization limited to activated droplets (C-AC), and a parameterization limited to coarse aerosol particles (C-CM). Both C-AC and C-CM are based on classical nucleation theory. The freezing rate with VF is found to be greater in downdraft regions than in updraft regions due to the downdraft having a higher number concentration of large droplets. The C-AC cases show active freezing of small droplets near cloud top, whereas in the C-CM cases, mainly the 8–32- μ m-sized droplets freeze in updraft regions near the cloud base. Because the initial crystal size is assumed to affect the axis ratio of hexagonal plates, the VF cases produce crystals with larger axis ratios, resulting in smaller mode radii than the C-AC cases. In all cases, irregular polycrystals dominate near cloud top and a band-like structure develops within the cloud, which qualitatively agrees with previous observations. In the VF and C-CM cases, unactivated large droplets arising from coarse-mode aerosol particles contributed significantly to the freezing rate, producing an important influence on crystal habit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon and Water Fluxes of the Boreal Evergreen Needleleaf Forest Biome Constrained by Assimilating Ecosystem Carbonyl Sulfide Flux Observations

Gross primary production (GPP) by boreal forests is highly sensitive to environmental changes. However, GPP simulated by land surface models (LSMs) remains highly uncertain due to the lack of direct photosynthesis observations at large scales. Carbonyl sulfide (COS) has emerged as a promising proxy to improve the representation of GPP in LSMs. Because COS is absorbed by vegetation following the same diffusion pathway as CO2 during photosynthesis and not emitted back to the atmosphere, incorporating a mechanistic representation of vegetation COS uptake in LSMs allows using COS observations to refine GPP representation. Here, we perform ecosystem COS flux and GPP data assimilations to constrain the COS- and GPP-related parameters in the ORCHIDEE LSM for boreal evergreen needleleaf forests (BorENF). Assimilating ecosystem COS fluxes at Hyytiälä forest increases the simulated net ecosystem COS uptake by 14%. This increase largely results from changes in the internal conductance to COS, highlighting the need to improve the representation of COS internal diffusion and consumption. Moreover, joint assimilation of ecosystem COS flux and GPP at Hyytiälä improves the simulated latent heat flux, contrary to the GPP-only data assimilation, which fails to do so. Finally, we scaled this assimilation framework up to the boreal region and find that the joint assimilation of COS at Hyytiälä and GPP fluxes at 10 BorENF sites increases the modeled vegetation COS uptake up to 18%, but not GPP. Therefore, this study encourages the use of COS flux observations to inform GPP and latent heat flux representations in LSMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effects of Climate Change on Interregional Electricity Market Dynamics on the U.S. West Coast

The United States (U.S.) West Coast power system is strongly influenced by variability and extremes in air temperatures (which drive electricity demand) and streamflows (which constrain hydropower production). As hydroclimate changes across the West Coast, a combination of forces may work in tandem to make its bulk power system more vulnerable to physical reliability issues and market price shocks. In particular, a warmer climate is expected to increase summer cooling (electricity) demands and shift the average timing of peak streamflow (hydropower production) away from summer to the spring and winter, depriving power systems of hydropower when it is needed the most. Here, we investigate how climate change could alter interregional electricity market dynamics on the West Coast, including the potential for hydroclimatic changes in one region (e.g. Pacific Northwest (PNW)) to “spill over” and cause price and reliability risks in another (e.g. California). We find that the most salient hydroclimatic risks for the PNW power system are changes in streamflow, while risks for the California system are driven primarily by changes in summer air temperatures, especially extreme heat events that increase peak system demand. Altered timing and amounts of hydropower production in the PNW do alter summer power deliveries into California but show relatively modest potential to impact prices and reliability there. Instead, it is future climate conditions (extreme heat) in California that may exert a stronger significant influence on prices and reliability in the PNW, especially if California continues to rely on its northern neighbor for imported power to meet higher summer demands.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mapping the Perseus galaxy cluster with XRISM: Gas kinematic features and their implications for turbulence

We present extended gas kinematic maps of the Perseus cluster based on a combination of five new XRISM/Resolve pointings observed in 2025 with four performance verification datasets from 2024, totaling a net exposure of 745 ks. To date, Perseus remains the only cluster that has been extensively mapped out to ≃0.7 r 2500 by XRISM/Resolve, while simultaneously offering sufficient spatial resolution to resolve gaseous substructures driven by mergers and active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback. Our observations cover multiple radial directions and a broad range of dynamical scales, enabling us to characterize the kinematic properties of the intracluster medium up to a scale of ∼500 kpc. In the measurements, we detected high-velocity dispersions (≃300km s −1 ) in the eastern region of the cluster that are spatially coincident with the extended X-ray surface brightness excess and correspond to a nonthermal pressure fraction of ≃7 − 13%. The velocity field outside the AGN-dominant region can be effectively described by a single, large-scale kinematic driver based on the velocity structure function, which statistically favors an energy injection scale of at least a few hundred kpc. The estimated turbulent dissipation energy is comparable to the gravitational potential energy released by a recent merger, implying a significant role of turbulent cascade in the merger energy conversion. In the bulk velocity field, we observed a dipole-like pattern along the east-west direction with an amplitude of ≃ ± 200 − 300 km s −1 , indicating rotational motions induced by the recent merger event. This feature constrains the viewing direction to ≃30° −50° relative to the normal of the merger plane. Our hydrodynamic simulations suggest that Perseus has experienced at least two energetic mergers since redshift z ∼ 1, the most recent of which is associated with the radio galaxy IC310, in agreement with recent SRG/eROSITA findings. This study showcases exciting scientific opportunities for future missions with high-resolution spectroscopic capabilities (e.g., HUBS, LEM, and NewAthena).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗