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NASA NTRS2003

Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems

Some progress has been made in a continuing effort to develop mathematical models of the behaviors of multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology (e.g., systems ranging from single or a few biomolecules to many interacting higher organisms). Living systems can be characterized by nonlinear evolution of probability distributions over different possible choices of the next steps in their motions. One of the main challenges in mathematical modeling of living systems is to distinguish between random walks of purely physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) and those of biological origin. Following a line of reasoning from prior research, it has been assumed, in the present development, that a biological random walk can be represented by a nonlinear mathematical model that represents coupled mental and motor dynamics incorporating the psychological concept of reflection or self-image. The nonlinear dynamics impart the lifelike ability to behave in ways and to exhibit patterns that depart from thermodynamic equilibrium. Reflection or self-image has traditionally been recognized as a basic element of intelligence. The nonlinear mathematical models of the present development are denoted self-supervised dynamical systems. They include (1) equations of classical dynamics, including random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces, coupled with (2) the corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces, denoted supervising forces, composed of probability densities and functionals thereof. The equations of classical mechanics represent motor dynamics that is, dynamics in the traditional sense, signifying Newton s equations of motion. The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics or self-image. Then the interaction between the physical and metal aspects of a monad is implemented by feedback from mental to motor dynamics, as represented by the aforementioned fictitious forces. This feedback is what makes the evolution of probability densities nonlinear. The deviation from linear evolution can be characterized, in a sense, as an expression of free will. It has been demonstrated that probability densities can approach prescribed attractors while exhibiting such patterns as shock waves, solitons, and chaos in probability space. The concept of self-supervised dynamical systems has been considered for application to diverse phenomena, including information-based neural networks, cooperation, competition, deception, games, and control of chaos. In addition, a formal similarity between the mathematical structures of self-supervised dynamical systems and of quantum-mechanical systems has been investigated.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS1958

A Flight Evaluation and Analysis of the Effect of Icing Conditions on the ZPG-2 Airship

A series of test flights was conducted by the U. S. Navy over a 3- year period to evaluate the effects of icing on the operation of the ZPG-2 airship. In supercooled. clouds, ice formed only on the forward edges of small protuberances and wires and presented no serious hazard to operation. Ice accretions of the glaze type which occurred in conditions described as freezing drizzle adversely affected various components to a somewhat greater extent. The results indicated, a need for protection of certain components such as antennas, propellers, and certain parts of the control system. The tests showed that icing of the large surface of the envelope occurred only in freezing rain or drizzle. Because of the infrequent occurrence of these conditions, the potential maximum severity could not be estimated from the test results. The increases in heaviness caused by icing in freezing rain and drizzle were substantial, but well within the operational capabilities of the airship. In order to estimate the potential operational significance of icing in freezing rain, theoretical calculations were used to estimate: (1) the rate of icing as a function of temperature and rainfall intensity, (2) the climatological probability of occurrence of various combinations of these variables, and (3) the significance of the warming influence of the ocean in alleviating freezing-rain conditions. The results of these calculations suggest that, although very heavy icing rates are possible in combinations of low temperature and high rainfall rate, the occurrence of such conditions is very infrequent in coastal areas and virtually impossible 200 or 300 miles offshore.

Lewis, Willilam↗
NASA NTRS2005

Constraints on the Detection of the Solar Nebula's Oxidation State Through Asteroid Observations

Introduction: Asteroids represent the only in situ surviving population of planetesimals from the formation of the inner solar system and therefore include materials from the very earliest stages of solar system formation. Hence, these bodies can provide constraints on the processes and conditions that were present during this epoch and can be used to test current models and theories describing the late solar nebula, the early solar system and subsequent planetary accretion. From detailed knowledge of asteroid mineralogic compositions the probable starting materials, thermal histories, and oxidation states of asteroid parent bodies can be inferred. If such data can be obtained from specific mainbelt source regions, then this information can be used to map out the formation conditions of the late solar nebula within the inner solar system and possibly distinguish any trends in oxidation state that may be present.

Abell, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimated Probability of Traumatic Abdominal Injury During an International Space Station Mission

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to spaceflight mission planners and medical system designers when assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM project maintains a database of medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight. The IMM project is in the process of assigning an incidence rate, the associated functional impairment, and a best and a worst case end state for each condition. The purpose of this work was to develop the IMM Abdominal Injury Module (AIM). The AIM calculates an incidence rate of traumatic abdominal injury per person-year of spaceflight on the International Space Station (ISS). The AIM was built so that the probability of traumatic abdominal injury during one year on ISS could be predicted. This result will be incorporated into the IMM Abdominal Injury Clinical Finding Form and used within the parent IMM model.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Gravity and count probabilities in an expanding universe

The time evolution of nonlinear clustering on large scales in cold dark matter, hot dark matter, and white noise models of the universe is investigated using N-body simulations performed with a tree code. Count probabilities in cubic cells are determined as functions of the cell size and the clustering state (redshift), and comparisons are made with various theoretical models. We isolate the features that appear to be the result of gravitational instability, those that depend on the initial conditions, and those that are likely a consequence of numerical limitations. More specifically, we study the development of skewness, kurtosis, and the fifth moment in relation to variance, the dependence of the void probability on time as well as on sparseness of sampling, and the overall shape of the count probability distribution. Implications of our results for theoretical and observational studies are discussed.

Bouchet, Francois R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Probabilistic Analysis of Aircraft Gas Turbine Disk Life and Reliability

Two series of low cycle fatigue (LCF) test data for two groups of different aircraft gas turbine engine compressor disk geometries were reanalyzed and compared using Weibull statistics. Both groups of disks were manufactured from titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy. A NASA Glenn Research Center developed probabilistic computer code Probable Cause was used to predict disk life and reliability. A material-life factor A was determined for titanium (Ti-6Al-4V) alloy based upon fatigue disk data and successfully applied to predict the life of the disks as a function of speed. A comparison was made with the currently used life prediction method based upon crack growth rate. Applying an endurance limit to the computer code did not significantly affect the predicted lives under engine operating conditions. Failure location prediction correlates with those experimentally observed in the LCF tests. A reasonable correlation was obtained between the predicted disk lives using the Probable Cause code and a modified crack growth method for life prediction. Both methods slightly overpredict life for one disk group and significantly under predict it for the other.

Melis, Matthew E.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Characterizations of linear sufficient statistics

A necessary and sufficient condition is developed such that there exists a continous linear sufficient statistic T for a dominated collection of totally finite measures defined on the Borel field generated by the open sets of a Banach space X. In particular, corollary necessary and sufficient conditions are given so that there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T for any finite collection of probability measures having n-variate normal densities. In this case a simple calculation, involving only the population means and covariances, determines the smallest integer K for which there exists a rank K linear sufficient statistic T (as well as an associated statistic T itself).

Peters, B. C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Electrostatic charging characteristics of thermal control paints as function of temperature

The charging characteristics of paints for various uses on spacecraft under electron bombardment were studied. It was found that there is not a strong temperature dependence of the charging characteristics between -155 C and +30 C; and there is a noticeable hystereis effect as the electron beam energy is varied. Furthermore, all of the paints tested exhibit large secondary yields at low (approx. 1 keV) bombarding electron energies; and surfaces can charge either positively or negatively depending on the conditions and the paint. It was concluded that paints are not simple, will require more detailed study, and will probably act differently in multiple energy electron tests.

Robinson, P. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Effectiveness of back-to-back testing

Three models of back-to-back testing processes are described. Two models treat the case where there is no intercomponent failure dependence. The third model describes the more realistic case where there is correlation among the failure probabilities of the functionally equivalent components. The theory indicates that back-to-back testing can, under the right conditions, provide a considerable gain in software reliability. The models are used to analyze the data obtained in a fault-tolerant software experiment. It is shown that the expected gain is indeed achieved, and exceeded, provided the intercomponent failure dependence is sufficiently small. However, even with the relatively high correlation the use of several functionally equivalent components coupled with back-to-back testing may provide a considerable reliability gain. Implications of this finding are that the multiversion software development is a feasible and cost effective approach to providing highly reliable software components intended for fault-tolerant software systems, on condition that special attention is directed at early detection and elimination of correlated faults.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning

The models of statistical mechanics provide an alternative to the methods of classical mechanics more traditionally used in robotics. They have a potential to: improve analysis of object collisions; handle kinematic and dynamic contact interactions within the same frmework; and reduce the need for perfect deterministic world model information. The statistical mechanics models characterize the state of the system as a probability density function (p.d.f.) whose time evolution is governed by a partial differential equation subject to boundary and initial conditions. The boundary conditions when rigid objects collide reflect the conservation of momentum. The models are being developed to embedd in remote semi-autonomous systems with a need to reason and interact with a multiobject environment.

Rodriguez, G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Asymptotic behavior of curvature of surface elements in isotropic turbulence

The asymptotic behavior of the curvature of material elements in turbulence is investigated using Lagrangian velocity-gradient time series obtained from direct numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence. Several material-element ensembles of different initial curvatures and shapes are studied. It is found that, at long times, the (first five) moments of the logarithm of characteristic curvature and shape factor asymptote to values that are independent of the initial curvature or shape. This evidence strongly suggests that the asymptotic pdf's of the curvature and shape of material elements are stationary and independent of initial conditions. Irrespective of initial curvature or shape, the asymptotic shape of a material surface is cylindrical with a high probability.

Girimaji, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high-pressure fuel turbopump of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Derivation of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. A dynamic failure is said to occur if this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline. The authors present a method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space-which is derived from given input and state constraints-is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. The authors consider a one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure.

Shin, Kang G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Derivation and application of hard deadlines for real-time control systems

The computation-time delay in the feedback controller of a real-time control system may cause failure to update the control input during one or more sampling periods. If this delay exceeds a certain limit called a hard deadline, either the necessary conditions for system stability are violated or the system leaves the allowed state-space. In such a case a dynamic failure is said to occur to the system. A method for calculating the hard deadlines in linear time-invariant control systems by considering system stability and the allowed state-space is presented. To derive necessary conditions for (asymptotic) system stability, the state difference equation is modified based on an assumed maximum delay and the probability distribution of delays whose magnitudes are less than, or equal to, the assumed maximum delay. Moreover, the allowed state-space - which is derived from given input and state constraints - is used to calculate the hard deadline as a function of time and the system state. A one-shot delay model in which a single event causes a dynamic failure is also considered. The knowledge of hard deadline is then applied to the design of error recovery in a triple modular redundant (TMR) controller computer.

Shin, Kang G.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Probabilistic simulation of fragment dynamics and their surface impacts in the SSME turbopump

Numerical simulations are used to model the dynamics of solid fragments in the high pressure fuel turbopump of the space shuttle main engine (SSME HPFTP). The simulations are conducted in a probabilistic structure in order to simulate the variance in the geometrical configuration, material properties and initial conditions of the solid fragments. The results of the particle dynamics simulations are presented in the form of the probability of surface impacts, and probability distributions of the impacting velocity and impingement angle.

Hamed, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Interplanetary magnetic field dependency of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs

This is the first analysis, using a statistically significant data set, of the morphological dependence of the presence, orientation, and motion of stable sun-aligned polar cap arcs upon the vector interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). For the one winter season analyzed we had 1392 all-sky 630.0-nm images of 2-min resolution containing a total of 150 polar cap arcs, all with corresponding values of the IMF as measured by International Monitoring Platform (IMP) 8 or International Sun Earth Explorer (ISEE) 2. After demonstrating an unbiased data set with smooth normal distributions of events versus the dimensions of time, space, and IMF component, we examine IMF dependencies of the properties of the optical arcs. A well-defined dependence for B(sub z) is found for the presence/absence of stable Sun-aligned polar cap arcs. Consistent with previous statistical studies, the probability of observing polar cap aurora steadily increases for larger positive values of B(sub z), and linearly decreases when B(sub z) becomes more negative. The probability of observing Sun-aligned arcs within the polar cap is determined to vary sharply as a function of the arc location; arcs were observed 40% of the time on the dawnside and only 10% on the duskside. This implies an overall probability of at least 40% for the whole polar cap. 20% of the arcs were observed during 'southward IMF conditions,' but in fact under closer inspection were found to have been formed under northward IMF conditions; these 'residual' positive B(sub z) arcs ha d a delayed residence time in the polar cap of about what would be expected after a north to south transition of B(sub z). A firm dependence on B(sub y) is also found for both the orientation and the dawn-dusk direction of motion of the arcs. All the arcs are Sun-aligned to a first approximation, but present deviations from this orientation, depending primarily upon the location of the arc in corrected geomagnetic (CG) coordinates. The arcs populating the 06-12 and the 12-18 quadrants of the CG coordinate system point toward the cusp. The B(sub y) dependency of the arc alignment is consistent with a cusp displacement in local time according to the sign of B(sub y). We found that the arc direction of motion depended both on B(sub y) and the arc location within the polar cap. For a given value of B(sub y) two well-defined regions (or cells) exist. Within each cell the arcs move in the same direction toward the boundary between the cells. The arcs located in the duskside move dawnward; those in the dawnside move duskward. The relative size of these dusk and dawn regions (or cells) are controlled by the magnitude of B(sub y). This persistent dusk-dawn motion fo the polar cap arcs is interpreted in terms of newly open flux tubes entering the polar cap and exerting a displacement of the convective cells and the polar cap arcs that are embedded within them.

Valladares, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Radiation-Driven Warping: Nonisothermal Disks - 2

Recent work by Pringle and by Maloney, Begelman, & Pringle has shown that geometrically thin, optically thick, accretion disks are unstable to warping driven by radiation torque from the central source. This work was confined to isothermal (i.e., surface density Sigma varies as R(sup -3/2) disks. In this paper we generalize the study of radiation-driven warping to include general power-law surface density distributions, Sigma varies as R(sup -delta).We consider the range from Delta = 3/2 (the isothermal case) to Delta = -3/2, which corresponds to a radiation-pressure-supported disk; this spans the range of surface density distributions likely to be found in real astrophysical disks. In all cases there are an infinite number of zero-crossing solutions (i.e., solutions that cross the equator), which are the physically relevant modes if the outer boundary of the disk is required to lie in a specified plane. However, unlike the isothermal disk, which is the degenerate case, the frequency eigenvalues for Delta does not equal 3/2 are all distinct. In all cases the location of the zero moves outward from the steady state (pure precession) value with increasing growth rate; thus, there is a critical minimum size for unstable disks. Modes with zeros at smaller radii are damped. The critical radius and the steady state precession rate depend only weakly on Delta. An additional analytic solution has been found for Delta = 1. The case Delta = 1 divides the solutions into two qualitatively different regimes. For Delta greater than or equal to 1, the fastest growing modes have maximum warp amplitude, close to the disk outer edge, and the ratio of Beta(sub max) to the warp amplitude at the disk inner edge, Beta(sub o), is much greater than 1. For Delta less than 1, Beta(sub max/Beta(sub o) approximately equals 1, and the warp maximum steadily approaches the origin as Delta decreases. This implies that nonlinear effects must be important if the warp extends to the disk inner edge for Delta greater than or equal to 1, but for Delta less than 1 nonlinearity will be important only if the warp amplitude is large at the origin. Because of this qualitative difference in the shapes of the warps, the effects of shadowing of the central source by the warp will also be very different in the two regimes of Delta. This has important implications for radiation-driven warping in X-ray binaries, for which the value of Delta characterizing the disk is likely to be less than unity. In real accretion disks the outer boundary condition is likely to be different from the zero-crossing condition that we have assumed. In accretion disks around massive black holes in active galactic nuclei, the disk will probably become optically thin before the outer disk boundary is reached, whereas in X-ray binaries there will be an outer disk region (outside the circularization radius) in which the inflow velocity is zero but angular momentum is still transported. We show that in both these cases the solutions are similar to the zero-crossing eigenfunctions.

Maloney, Philip R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Role of Viscous Deformation in the Morphology of the Martian North Polar Cap

The first detailed topographic measurements of Mars' north polar cap have recently been collected by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), an instrument on Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). These new data provide the opportunity to address in a quantitative way the processes responsible for the origin and evolution of the martian polar caps. On the basis of imaging and spectral observations from the Mariner 9 and Viking orbiters, it was recognized that a number of physical mechanisms. including radiative transfer, wind erosion, and viscous flow, represent possible or probable contributors to the morphology of the polar cap. Here we review rheological data for H2O and CO2 at conditions relevant to the martian polar regions. We then use MOLA topographic profiles to perform a preliminary assessment of the role of power law flow in contributing to the regional-scale planform of the north polar cap.

Zuber, M. T.↗