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NASA NTRS2010

The Use of Behavior Models for Predicting Complex Operations

Modeling and simulation (M&S) plays an important role when complex human-system notions are being proposed, developed and tested within the system design process. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as an agency uses many different types of M&S approaches for predicting human-system interactions, especially when it is early in the development phase of a conceptual design. NASA Ames Research Center possesses a number of M&S capabilities ranging from airflow, flight path models, aircraft models, scheduling models, human performance models (HPMs), and bioinformatics models among a host of other kinds of M&S capabilities that are used for predicting whether the proposed designs will benefit the specific mission criteria. The Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA ARC HPM software tool that integrates many models of human behavior with environment models, equipment models, and procedural / task models. The challenge to model comprehensibility is heightened as the number of models that are integrated and the requisite fidelity of the procedural sets are increased. Model transparency is needed for some of the more complex HPMs to maintain comprehensibility of the integrated model performance. This will be exemplified in a recent MIDAS v5 application model and plans for future model refinements will be presented.

Gore, Brian F.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Rapid Cost Assessment of Space Mission Concepts Through Application of Complexity-Based Cost Indices

This slide presentation reviews the development of a rapid cost assessment models for evaluation of exploration missions through the application of complexity based cost indices. In Fall of 2004, NASA began developing 13 documents, known as "strategic roadmaps," intended to outline a strategy for space exploration over the next 30 years. The Third Strategic Roadmap, The Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration, focused on strategy for robotic exploration of the Solar System. Development of the Strategic Roadmap for Solar System Exploration led to the investigation of a large variety of missions. However, the necessity of planning around scientific inquiry and budgetary constraints made it necessary for the roadmap development team to evaluate potential missions not only for scientific return but also cost. Performing detailed cost studies for each of the large number of missions was impractical given the time constraints involved and lack of detailed mission studies; so a method of rapid cost assessment was developed by us to allow preliminary analysis. It has been noted that there is a strong correlation between complexity and cost and schedule of planetary missions. While these correlations were made after missions had been built and flown (successfully or otherwise), it seemed likely that a similar approach could provide at least some relative cost ranking. Cost estimation relationships (CERs) have been developed based on subsystem design choices. These CERs required more detailed information than available, forcing the team to adopt a more high level approach. Costing by analogy has been developed for small satellites, however, planetary exploration missions provide such varying spacecraft requirements that there is a lack of adequately comparable missions that can be used for analogy.

cost estimation↗

NASA NTRS2010

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Elfrey, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS2010

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗

NASA NTRS2011

Modeling Electromagnetic Scattering From Complex Inhomogeneous Objects

This software innovation is designed to develop a mathematical formulation to estimate the electromagnetic scattering characteristics of complex, inhomogeneous objects using the finite-element-method (FEM) and method-of-moments (MoM) concepts, as well as to develop a FORTRAN code called FEMOM3DS (Finite Element Method and Method of Moments for 3-Dimensional Scattering), which will implement the steps that are described in the mathematical formulation. Very complex objects can be easily modeled, and the operator of the code is not required to know the details of electromagnetic theory to study electromagnetic scattering.

Deshpande, Manohar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Synthesis of Two New Group 13 Benzoato-Chloro Complexes: A Structural Study of Gallium and Indium Chelating Carboxylates

Two new heteroleptic chelated-benzoato gallium (III) and indium (III) complexes have been prepared and structurally characterized. The molecular structures of [GaCl2(4-Mepy)2(O2CPh)]4-Mepy (1) and [InCl(4-Mepy)2(O2CPh)2]4-Mepy (2) have been determined by single-crystal x-ray diffraction. The gallium compound (1) is a distorted octahedron with cis-chloride ligands co-planar with the chelating benzoate and the 4-methylpyridines trans to each other. This is the first example of a Ga(III) structure with a chelating benzoate. The indium compound (2) is a distorted pentagonal bipyramid with two chelating benzoates, one 4-methylpyridine in the plane and a chloride trans to the other 4-methylpyridine. The indium bis-benzoate is an unusual example of a seven-coordinate structure with classical ligands. Both complexes, which due to the chelates, could also be described as pseudo-trigonal bipyramidal, include a three-bladed motif with three roughly parallel aromatic rings that along with a solvent of crystallization and electron-withdrawing chloride ligand(s) stabilize the solid-state structures.

Duraj, Stan A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Component-Level Electronic-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) Spacecraft Circuit Diagnostics by Analog and Complex Signature Analysis

The Component-Level Electronic-Assembly Repair (CLEAR) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center is aimed at developing technologies that will enable space-flight crews to perform in situ component-level repair of electronics on Moon and Mars outposts, where there is no existing infrastructure for logistics spares. These technologies must provide effective repair capabilities yet meet the payload and operational constraints of space facilities. Effective repair depends on a diagnostic capability that is versatile but easy to use by crew members that have limited training in electronics. CLEAR studied two techniques that involve extensive precharacterization of "known good" circuits to produce graphical signatures that provide an easy-to-use comparison method to quickly identify faulty components. Analog Signature Analysis (ASA) allows relatively rapid diagnostics of complex electronics by technicians with limited experience. Because of frequency limits and the growing dependence on broadband technologies, ASA must be augmented with other capabilities. To meet this challenge while preserving ease of use, CLEAR proposed an alternative called Complex Signature Analysis (CSA). Tests of ASA and CSA were used to compare capabilities and to determine if the techniques provided an overlapping or complementary capability. The results showed that the methods are complementary.

Oeftering, Richard C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Less-Complex Method of Classifying MPSK

An alternative to an optimal method of automated classification of signals modulated with M-ary phase-shift-keying (M-ary PSK or MPSK) has been derived. The alternative method is approximate, but it offers nearly optimal performance and entails much less complexity, which translates to much less computation time. Modulation classification is becoming increasingly important in radio-communication systems that utilize multiple data modulation schemes and include software-defined or software-controlled receivers. Such a receiver may "know" little a priori about an incoming signal but may be required to correctly classify its data rate, modulation type, and forward error-correction code before properly configuring itself to acquire and track the symbol timing, carrier frequency, and phase, and ultimately produce decoded bits. Modulation classification has long been an important component of military interception of initially unknown radio signals transmitted by adversaries. Modulation classification may also be useful for enabling cellular telephones to automatically recognize different signal types and configure themselves accordingly. The concept of modulation classification as outlined in the preceding paragraph is quite general. However, at the present early stage of development, and for the purpose of describing the present alternative method, the term "modulation classification" or simply "classification" signifies, more specifically, a distinction between M-ary and M'-ary PSK, where M and M' represent two different integer multiples of 2. Both the prior optimal method and the present alternative method require the acquisition of magnitude and phase values of a number (N) of consecutive baseband samples of the incoming signal + noise. The prior optimal method is based on a maximum- likelihood (ML) classification rule that requires a calculation of likelihood functions for the M and M' hypotheses: Each likelihood function is an integral, over a full cycle of carrier phase, of a complicated sum of functions of the baseband sample values, the carrier phase, the carrier-signal and noise magnitudes, and M or M'. Then the likelihood ratio, defined as the ratio between the likelihood functions, is computed, leading to the choice of whichever hypothesis - M or M'- is more likely. In the alternative method, the integral in each likelihood function is approximated by a sum over values of the integrand sampled at a number, 1, of equally spaced values of carrier phase. Used in this way, 1 is a parameter that can be adjusted to trade computational complexity against the probability of misclassification. In the limit as 1 approaches infinity, one obtains the integral form of the likelihood function and thus recovers the ML classification. The present approximate method has been tested in comparison with the ML method by means of computational simulations. The results of the simulations have shown that the performance (as quantified by probability of misclassification) of the approximate method is nearly indistinguishable from that of the ML method (see figure).

Hamkins, Jon↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Distribution of Complex Organic Molecules in the Orion KL Molecular Core

We conducted high angular-resolution observations toward the massive star-forming region Orion KL at 1.3 mm using the Submillimeter Array (SMA). Spectral emission from twelve complex organic molecules was simultaneously imaged. We discuss the distinct chemical characteristics among four sub- regions in Orion KL by comparing the spatial distributions and fractional abundances of these complex molecules. These observations will allow us to test and constrain chemical models of interstellar organic synthesis.

Kuan, Yi-Jehng↗

NASA NTRS2012

Application of CART3D to Complex Propulsion-Airframe Integration with Vehicle Sketch Pad

Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP) is an easy-to-use modeler used to generate aircraft geometries for use in conceptual design and analysis. It has been used in the past to generate metageometries for aerodynamic analyses ranging from handbook methods to Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics (CFD). As desirable as it is to bring high order analyses, such as CFD, into the conceptual design process, this has been difficult and time consuming in practice due to the manual nature of both surface and volume grid generation. Over the last couple of years, VSP has had a major upgrade of its surface triangulation and export capability. This has enhanced its ability to work with Cart3D, an inviscid, three dimensional fluid flow toolset. The combination of VSP and Cart3D allows performing inviscid CFD on complex geometries with relatively high productivity. This paper will illustrate the use of VSP with Cart3D through an example case of a complex propulsion-airframe integration (PAI) of an over-wing nacelle (OWN) airliner configuration.

Hahn, Andrew S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Complex Protostellar Chemistry

Two decades ago, our understanding chemistry in protostars was simple -- matter either fell into the central star or was trapped in planetary-scale objects. Some minor chemical changes might occur as the dust and gas fell inward, but such effects were overwhelmed by the much larger-scale processes that occurred even in bodies as small as asteroids. The chemistry that did occur in the nebula was relatively easy to model because the fall from the cold molecular cloud into the growing star was a one-way trip down a well-known temperature pressure gradient; the only free variable was time. However, just over 10 years ago it was suggested that some material could be processed in the inner nebula, flow outward, and become incorporated into comets. This outward flow was confirmed when the Stardust mission returned crystalline mineral fragments from Comet Wild 2 that must have been processed close to the Sun before they were incorporated into the comet. In this week's Science Express, Ciesla and Sandford demonstrate that even the outermost regions of the solar nebula can be a chemically active environment. Their finding could have consequences for the rest of the nebula. Our understanding of the chemistry in protostellar systems has made enormous progress over the last few decades, fueled by an increased awareness of the complex dynamics of these evolving energetic nebulae. We can no longer consider just the simple local environment to explain the composition of a planet, asteroid, or comet as was done in the past, but must now consider chemical processes that might take place within the nebula as a whole as well as the probability of transport and mixing the products of such reactions throughout the system. just as we now find it impossible to explain the complex chemistry of the terrestrial atmosphere without reference to detailed transport models that interconnect highly dissimilar chemical environments, so chemical models of protostars and of the solar nebula must eventually treat these environments as tightly coupled, interactive systems. The demonstration that the chemistry on the surfaces of outward-flowing, dynamically mixing icy grain surfaces both mimics the chemistry in cold cloud cores and strikes at the central assumption of the photochemical self-shielding model for oxygen isotopes in solar system solids only adds emphasis to this conclusion.

Nuth, Joseph A., III↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Transition from Complex Crater to Peak-Ring Basin on the Moon: New Observations from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) Instrument

Impact craters on planetary bodies transition with increasing size from simple, to complex, to peak-ring basins and finally to multi-ring basins. Important to understanding the relationship between complex craters with central peaks and multi-ring basins is the analysis of protobasins (exhibiting a rim crest and interior ring plus a central peak) and peak-ring basins (exhibiting a rim crest and an interior ring). New data have permitted improved portrayal and classification of these transitional features on the Moon. We used new 128 pixel/degree gridded topographic data from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) instrument onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, combined with image mosaics, to conduct a survey of craters >50 km in diameter on the Moon and to update the existing catalogs of lunar peak-ring basins and protobasins. Our updated catalog includes 17 peak-ring basins (rim-crest diameters range from 207 km to 582 km, geometric mean = 343 km) and 3 protobasins (137-170 km, geometric mean = 157 km). Several basins inferred to be multi-ring basins in prior studies (Apollo, Moscoviense, Grimaldi, Freundlich-Sharonov, Coulomb-Sarton, and Korolev) are now classified as peak-ring basins due to their similarities with lunar peak-ring basin morphologies and absence of definitive topographic ring structures greater than two in number. We also include in our catalog 23 craters exhibiting small ring-like clusters of peaks (50-205 km, geometric mean = 81 km); one (Humboldt) exhibits a rim-crest diameter and an interior morphology that may be uniquely transitional to the process of forming peak rings. Comparisons of the predictions of models for the formation of peak-ring basins with the characteristics of the new basin catalog for the Moon suggest that formation and modification of an interior melt cavity and nonlinear scaling of impact melt volume with crater diameter provide important controls on the development of peak rings. In particular, a power-law model of growth of an interior melt cavity with increasing crater diameter is consistent with power-law fits to the peak-ring basin data for the Moon and Mercury. We suggest that the relationship between the depth of melting and depth of the transient cavity offers a plausible control on the onset diameter and subsequent development of peak-ring basins and also multi-ring basins, which is consistent with both planetary gravitational acceleration and mean impact velocity being important in determining the onset of basin morphological forms on the terrestrial planets.

Baker, David M. H.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Calculating the Lightning Protection System Downconductors' Grounding Resistance at Launch Complex 39B, Kennedy Space Center, Florida

A new Lightning Protection System (LPS) was designed and built at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B), at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Florida, which consists of a catenary wire system (at a height of about 181 meters above ground level) supported by three insulation installed atop three towers in a triangular configuration. Nine downconductors (each about 250 meters long) are connected to the catenary wire system. Each downconductor is connected to a 7.62-meter-radius circular counterpoise conductor with six equally spaced. 6-meter-1ong vertical grounding rods. Grounding requirements at LC39B call for all underground and above ground metallic piping. enclosures, raceways. and. cable trays. within 7.62 meters of. counterpoise, to be bonded to the counterpoise, which results in a complex interconnected grounding system, given the many metallic piping, raceways and cable trays that run in multiple directions around LC39B.

Mata, Carlos↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preparation and Single-Crystal X-Ray Structures of Four Related Mixed-Ligand 4-Methylpyridine Indium Halide Complexes

We describe the structures of four related indium complexes obtained during synthesis of solid-state materials precursors. Indium adducts of halides and 4-methylpyridine, InX3(pic)3 (X = Cl, Br; pic = 4-methylpyridine) consist of octahedral molecules with meridional (mer) geometry. Crystals of mer-InCl3(pic)3 (1) are triclinic, space group P1(bar) (No. 2), with a = 9.3240(3), b = 13.9580(6), c = 16.7268 (7) A, alpha = 84.323(2), beta = 80.938(2), gamma = 78.274(3)Z = 4, R = 0.035 for 8820 unique reflections. Crystals of mer-InBr3(pic)3 (2) are monoclinic, space group P21/n (No. 14), with a = 15.010(2), b = 19.938(2), c = 16.593(3), beta = 116.44(1)Z = 8, R = 0.053 for 4174 unique reflections. The synthesis and structures of related compounds with phenylsulfide (chloride) (3) and a dimeric complex with bridging hydroxide (bromide) (4) coordination is also described. Crystals of trans-In(SC6H5)Cl2(pic)3 (3) are monoclinic, space group P21/n (No. 14), with a = 9.5265(2), b = 17.8729(6), c = 13.8296(4), beta = 99.7640(15)Z = 4, R = 0.048 for 5511 unique reflections. Crystals of [In(mu-OH)Br2(pic)22 (4) are tetragonal, space group = I41cd (No. 110) with a = 19.8560(4), b = 19.8560(4), c = 25.9528(6), Z = 8, R = 0.039 for 5982 unique reflections.

Hepp, Aloysius F.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Data Mining and Complex Problems: Case Study in Composite Materials

Data mining is defined as the discovery of useful, possibly unexpected, patterns and relationships in data using statistical and non-statistical techniques in order to develop schemes for decision and policy making. Data mining can be used to discover the sources and causes of problems in complex systems. In addition, data mining can support simulation strategies by finding the different constants and parameters to be used in the development of simulation models. This paper introduces a framework for data mining and its application to complex problems. To further explain some of the concepts outlined in this paper, the potential application to the NASA Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon structures and genetic programming is used as an illustration.

Rabelo, Luis↗

NASA NTRS2013

SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software also makes use of the LEGION distributed computing framework to leverage the power of a set of compute nodes. The approach has been demonstrated on a planetary science application in which numerical simulations are used to study the formation of asteroid families.

Burl, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2014

Heterogenous Oxygen Isotopic Composition of a Complex Wark-Lovering Rim and the Margin of a Refractory Inclusion from Leoville

Wark-Lovering (WL) rims [1] surrounding many refractory inclusions represent marker events in the early evolution of the Solar System in which many inclusions were exposed to changes in pressure [2], temperature [3], and isotopic reservoirs [4-7]. The effects of these events can be complex, not only producing mineralogical variability of WL rims [2], but also leading to mineralogical [8-10] and isotopic [7, 11, 12] changes within inclusion interiors. Extreme oxygen isotopic heterogeneity measured in CAIs has been explained by mixing between distinct oxygen gas reservoirs in the nebula [13]. Some WL rims contain relatively simple mineral layering and/or are isotopically homogeneous [14, 15]. As part of a larger effort to document and understand the modifications observed in some CAIs, an inclusion (L6) with a complex WL rim from Leoville, a member of the reduced CV3 subgroup was studied. Initial study of the textures and mineral chemistry was presented by [16]. Here we present NanoSIMS oxygen isotopic measurements to complement these petrologic observations.

Simon, J. I.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Analysis and Perspective from the Complex Aerospace Systems Exchange (CASE) 2013

NASA Langley Research Center embedded four rapporteurs at the Complex Aerospace Systems Exchange (CASE) held in August 2013 with the objective to capture the essence of the conference presentations and discussions. CASE was established to provide a discussion forum among chief engineers, program managers, and systems engineers on challenges in the engineering of complex aerospace systems. The meeting consists of invited presentations and panels from industry, academia, and government followed by discussions among attendees. This report presents the major and reoccurring themes captured throughout the meeting and provides analysis and insights to further the CASE mission.

Jones, Kennie H.↗