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At least 577 records · Page 32

The Impact of Early Design Phase Risk Identification Biases on Space System Project Performance

Risk identification during the early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to result in the identification of events and circumstances that truly challenge project performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimation are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. A deeper understanding of frequent risk identification trends and biases pervasive during space system design and development is needed, for it would lead to improved execution of existing identification processes and methods.

Reeves, John D., Jr.↗

Exergy Based Analysis for the Environmental Control and Life Support Systems of the International Space Station

When optimizing the performance of complex systems, a logical area for concern is improving the efficiency of useful energy. The energy available for a system to perform work is defined as a system's energy content. Interactions between a system's subsystems and the surrounding environment can be accounted for by understanding various subsystem energy efficiencies. Energy balance of reactants and products, and enthalpies and entropies, can be used to represent a chemical process. Heat transfer energy represents heat loads, and flow energy represents system flows and filters. These elements allow for a system level energy balance. The energy balance equations are developed for the subsystems of the Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) system aboard the International Space Station (ISS). The use of these equations with system information would allow for the calculation of the energy efficiency of the system, enabling comparisons of the ISS ECLS system to other systems as well as allows for an integrated systems analysis for system optimization.

Clem, Kirk A.↗

From Data to Knowledge: A Graph-Based Reliability Approach to Assess System Health

With the goal of maximizing plant reliability and availability, complex systems such as nuclear power plants continuously monitor and record the performance and the health status of many components, assets, and systems. Such data may take the form of online monitoring data, condition reports, and maintenance reports and it carries the potential to provide system engineers with insights into anomalous behaviors or degradation trends as well as the possible causes behind them and to predict their direct consequences. The analysis of such data poses however few challenges. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers or databases), others are conceptual in nature (i.e., data elements come in different formats, numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). This paper directly tackles these challenges, and it focuses on the integration of all these data elements in order to assist plant system engineers in analyzing component, assets, and systems performances and optimize maintenance activities. This is performed by 1) extracting knowledge from textual data via technical language processing methods, and 2) quantifying system, asset, and component health from numeric condition-based data. We rely on model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to identify their architecture and functional (i.e., cause and effect) relations. Numeric and textual data elements are then associated with an MBSE graph element, based on their nature. This bonding of MBSE models and data elements constitutes a first-of-its-kind knowledge graph of a nuclear power plants system, with data elements being organized in a structured manner that enables system engineers to identify cause-effect trends in data elements and carry out appropriate actions in response.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Expert systems for space power supply - Design, analysis, and evaluation

The feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general is evaluated. To do this, the space power supply design process and its associated knowledge base were analyzed and characterized in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. Some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain were applied to create a 'deep' system for handling the complex design problem. NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, has been developed, programmed, and tested as a concrete feasibility demonstration.

Cooper, Ralph S.↗

Ion propulsion system design and throttling strategies for planetary missions

This paper describes recent advances in ion propulsion system design which promise to increase the propulsion system reliability by reducing the overall system complexity. The greatest simplification in the overall propulsion system operation is accomplished through a change in the ion engine throttling strategy. By using three grid optics it is possible to effect engine throttling at a constant beam curent over at least a 3.8 to 1 variation in input power. Throttling at a constant beam current results in a single discharge chamber operating point and eliminates the need for active propellant flow controllers and complex engine throttling software. Detailed mission analysis calculations for a CNSR mission performed using this constant beam current throttling strategy indicate only a small reduction in delivered payload and increase in required propellant relative to a conventional throttling profile based on varying the beam curent.

Garner, Charles E.↗

High-Fidelity Full System Simulations

High-fidelity full system simulations have the potential for revolutionizing the way complex systems, such as propulsion systems for aerospace vehicles, are designed, developed, manufactured, and operated. Significant time and cost savings will result from simulations that will resolve deleterious component interactions early in the design process. In addition, innovative new system configurations will result from the use of new tools that enable designers to challenge traditional rules and practices. The major challenges to developing and implementing high-fidelity systems simulations are in reducing the time and effort required to build, execute, and analyze data for the high complex simulations. In addition, large scale testing with unique instrumentation is required to validate the simulations. The solution to these problems reside in the application of advanced information technologies to assist the user to effectively manage, process, and synthesize the vast amount of data. The following presentation describes in more detail the benefits of high-fidelity full system simulations, the challenges to developing and implementing large scale simulations, and one approach that is being followed by the NASA Glenn Research Center to overcome these challenges. In addition, topics for discussion by the panel and audience are suggested.

Lytle, John K.↗

Project Management Using Modern Guidance, Navigation and Control Theory

Implementing guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) theory principles and applying them to the human element of project management and control is not a new concept. As both the literature on the subject and the real-world applications are neither readily available nor comprehensive with regard to how such principles might be applied, this paper has been written to educate the project manager on the "laws of physics" of his or her project (not to teach a GN&C engineer how to become a project manager) and to provide an intuitive, mathematical explanation as to the control and behavior of projects. This paper will also address how the fundamental principles of modern GN&C were applied to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Constellation Program (CxP) space suit project, ensuring the project was managed within cost, schedule, and budget. A project that is akin to a physical system can be modeled and managed using the same over arching principles of GN&C that would be used if that project were a complex vehicle, a complex system(s), or complex software with time-varying processes (at times nonlinear) containing multiple data inputs of varying accuracy and a range of operating points. The classic GN&C theory approach could thus be applied to small, well-defined projects; yet when working with larger, multiyear projects necessitating multiple organizational structures, numerous external influences, and a multitude of diverse resources, modern GN&C principles are required to model and manage the project. The fundamental principles of a GN&C system incorporate these basic concepts: State, Behavior, Feedback Control, Navigation, Guidance and Planning Logic systems. The State of a system defines the aspects of the system that can change over time; e.g., position, velocity, acceleration, coordinate-based attitude, and temperature, etc. The Behavior of the system focuses more on what changes are possible within the system; this is denoted in the state of the system. The behavior of a system, as captured in the system modeling, when properly done will aid in accurately predicting future system performance. The Feedback Control system understands the state and behavior of the system and uses feedback to adjust control inputs into the system. The feedback, which is the right arm of the Control system, allows change to be affected in the overall system; it therefore is important to not only correctly identify the system feedback inputs, but also the system response to the feedback inputs. The Navigation system takes multiple data inputs and based on a priori knowledge of the inputs, develops a statistically based weighting of the inputs and measurements to determine the system's state. Guidance and Planning Logic of the system, complete with an understanding of where the system is (provided by the Navigation system), will in turn determine where the system needs to be and how to get it there. With any system/project, it is critical that the objective of the system/project be clearly defined -- not only to plan but to measure performance and to aid in guiding the system or the project. The system principles discussed above, which can be and have been applied to the current CxP space suit development project, can also be mapped to real-world constituents, thus allowing project managers to apply systems theories that are well defined in engineering and mathematics to a discipline (i.e., Project Management) that historically has been based in personal experience and intuition. This mapping of GN&C theory to Project Management will, in turn, permit a direct, methodical approach to Project Management, planning and control providing a tool to help predict (and guide) performance and an understanding of the project constraints, how the project can be controlled, and the impacts to external influences and inputs. This approach, to a project manager, flows down to the three bottom-line variables of cost, schedule, and scope ando the needed control of these three variables to successfully perform and complete a project.

Hill, Terry R.↗

About the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems Pillar

Los Alamos National Laboratory is a world leader in applying multi-disciplinary science to complex systems within the Complex Natural and Engineered Systems (CNES) challenge areas. Our search for solutions requires science and technology innovation, as well as an integrated experiment, theory, and modeling and simulation approach. Our research and development spans from improving engineered systems such as nuclear weapons and the power grid, to understanding the interface of human and engineered systems from the subsurface to space, to studying how complex natural systems such as disease and climate impact humanity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Mechanical and Thermomechanical Water Vapor Compression Techniques for Enabling High Temperature Lift Hydration-Based Chemical Heat Pumps

Achieving high temperature lifts (>200 K) via a chemical heat pump based on salt hydration/dehydration reactions requires the transport of water vapor from low to high pressure. Alternative compression approaches require condensing of low-pressure water vapor, pumping of liquid water, and subsequent evaporation when the low-side pressure corresponds to sub-ambient water saturation temperatures. Thus, this study compares four steam compression methods for use within a chemical heat pump system based on a reversible calcium oxide hydration/dehydration reaction with a temperature lift from 350 °C heat to >600 °C. Purely mechanical and thermochemical/mechanical compression technologies are considered. A parametric study of maximum allowable temperature, the isentropic efficiency of mechanical compressors, the effectiveness of heat exchangers, and the assumed allowable heat exchanger pressure drop is conducted to determine the mechanical and thermal energy consumed per kilogram of compressed steam. The system complexity in terms of the number of main system components, maximum pressure ratio, and maximum allowable temperature is estimated. Model results show an absorption-based steam compressor has the highest exergetic efficiency for the required chemical heat pump required conditions. As a result, this system configuration was then experimentally demonstrated to illustrate the impact of system performance on component effectiveness.

Advanced reactors↗

Open Reproducible Electron Microscopy Data Analysis

Electron microscopy (EM) is a cornerstone technique in the materials and biological sciences capable of imaging structures at nano- to atomic-scale resolution. Advances in technologies mean that one acquires datasets at increasing data rates and sizes. These advancements present enormous opportunities for researchers to understand complex systems. However, processing the resulting large-scale, complex data in a reproducible and shareable way is a real challenge for researchers. The building, managing, and maintaining complex workflows in a reproducible manner requires extensive knowledge in several areas outside the researchers’ core skill sets, such as software engineering, data science, and high-performance computing (HPC). Our work demonstrates an innovative approach to solving these problems, enabling reproducible EM data analysis through container encapsulated pipelines. Using modern container technologies, we encapsulate processing elements and connect them using shared memory. We expose user-friendly, advanced algorithms and tools to allow end users to utilize without expert programming skills. The platform enables reproducible, scalable, shareable pipelines for the analysis and visualization of EM data. Focusing on interoperability, we leverage the DOE and other agencies’ existing investments to provide a powerful software platform for EM data analysis.

Harris, Christopher↗

Evaluation Applied to Reliability Analysis of Reconfigurable, Highly Reliable, Fault-Tolerant, Computing Systems for Avionics

Emulation techniques are proposed as a solution to a difficulty arising in the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft. The difficulty, viz., the lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques are established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible, (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance, (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition, and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. The technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. The use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques.

Migneault, G. E.↗

Emulation applied to reliability analysis of reconfigurable, highly reliable, fault-tolerant computing systems

Emulation techniques applied to the analysis of the reliability of highly reliable computer systems for future commercial aircraft are described. The lack of credible precision in reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques is first established. The difficulty is shown to be an unavoidable consequence of: (1) a high reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Next, the technique of emulation is described, indicating how its input is a simple description of the logical structure of a system and its output is the consequent behavior. Use of emulation techniques is discussed for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques. Finally an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate from actual use the promise of the proposed application of emulation.

Migneault, G. E.↗

Control-structure interaction in a free beam

A simple energy approach to study the problem of control structure interactions in large space structures is presented. For the illustrative case of a free-free beam, the vibrational energy imparted during operation of constant, step, and pulsed thrusters is found in a nondimensional closed form. Then based on a parametric study, suggestions are made on the choice of parameters to minimize the control structure interactions. The study of this simple system provides physical insight and understanding for more complex systems.

Shrivastava, S. K.↗

The application of emulation techniques in the analysis of highly reliable, guidance and control computer systems

Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.

Migneault, Gerard E.↗

Damping characterization in large structures

This research project has as its main goal the development of methods for selecting the damping characteristics of components of a large structure or multibody system, in such a way as to produce some desired system damping characteristics. The main need for such an analytical device is in the simulation of the dynamics of multibody systems consisting, at least partially, of flexible components. The reason for this need is that all existing simulation codes for multibody systems require component-by-component characterization of complex systems, whereas requirements (including damping) often appear at the overall system level. The main goal was met in large part by the development of a method that will in fact synthesize component damping matrices from a given system damping matrix. The restrictions to the method are that the desired system damping matrix must be diagonal (which is almost always the case) and that interbody connections must be by simple hinges. In addition to the technical outcome, this project contributed positively to the educational and research infrastructure of Tuskegee University - a Historically Black Institution.

Eke, Fidelis O.↗

Integrated oxygen recovery system

Life Systems has conceptualized an innovative Integrated Oxygen Recovery System (IORS) applicable to advanced mission air revitalization. The IORS provides the capability to electrochemically generate metabolic oxygen (O2) and recover O2 from the space habitat atmosphere via a carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction process within a single assembly. To achieve this capability, the IORS utilizes a Solid Metal Cathode (SMC) water electrolysis unit that simultaneously serves as the Sabatier CO2 reduction reactor. The IORS enables two major life support systems currently baselined in closed loop air revitalization systems to be combined into one smaller, less complex system. This concept reduces fluidic and electrical interface requirements and eliminates a hydrogen (H2) interface. Life Systems is performing an evaluation of the IORS process directed at demonstrating performance and quantifying key physical characteristics including power, weight, and volume. Technical progress achieved during the first two months of the program is summarized.

Lee, M. Gene↗

Integrated oxygen recovery system

Life Systems has conceptualized an innovative Integrated Oxygen Recovery System (IORS) applicable to advanced mission air revitalization. The IORS provides the capability to electrochemically generate metabolic oxygen (O2) and recover O2 from the space habitat atmosphere via a carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction process within a single assembly. To achieve this capability, the IORS utilizes a Solid Metal Cathode (SMC) water electrolysis unit that simultaneously serves as the Sabatier CO2 reduction reactor. The IORS enables two major life support systems currently baselined in closed loop air revitalization systems to be combined into one smaller, less complex system. This concept reduces fluidic and electrical interface requirements and eliminates a hydrogen (H2) interface. Life Systems is performing an evaluation of the IORS process directed at demonstrating performance and quantifying key physical characteristics including power, weight, and volume. The results of the checkout, shakedown, and initial parametric tests are summarized.

Lee, M. Gene↗