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NASA NTRS1992

SAR backscatter from coniferous forest gaps

A study is in progress comparing Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) backscatter from coniferous forest plots containing gaps to backscatter from adjacent gap-free plots. Issues discussed are how do gaps in the range of 400 to 1600 sq m (approximately 4-14 pixels at intermediate incidence angles) affect forest backscatter statistics and what incidence angles, wavelengths, and polarizations are most sensitive to forest gaps. In order to visualize the slant-range imaging of forest and gaps, a simple conceptual model is used. This strictly qualitative model has led us to hypothesize that forest radar returns at short wavelengths (eg., C-band) and large incidence angles (e.g., 50 deg) should be most affected by the presence of gaps, whereas returns at long wavelengths and small angles should be least affected. Preliminary analysis of 1989 AIRSAR data from forest near Mt. Shasta supports the hypothesis. Current forest backscatter models such as MIMICS and Santa Barbara Discontinuous Canopy Backscatter Model have in several cases correctly predicted backscatter from forest stands based on inputs of measured or estimated forest parameters. These models do not, however, predict within-stand SAR scene texture, or 'intrinsic scene variability' as Ulaby et al. has referred to it. For instance, the Santa Barbara model, which may be the most spatially coupled of the existing models, is not truly spatial. Tree locations within a simulated pixel are distributed according to a Poisson process, as they are in many natural forests, but tree size is unrelated to location, which is not the case in nature. Furthermore, since pixels of a simulated stand are generated independently in the Santa Barbara model, spatial processes larger than one pixel are not modeled. Using a different approach, Oliver modeled scene texture based on an hypothetical forest geometry. His simulated scenes do not agree well with SAR data, perhaps due to the simple geometric model used. Insofar as texture is the expression of biological forest processes, such as succession and disease, and physical ones, such as fire and wind-throw, it contains useful information about the forest, and has value in image interpretation and classification. Forest gaps are undoubtedly important contributors to scene variance. By studying the localized effects of gaps on forest backscatter, guided by our qualitative model, we hope to understand more clearly the manner in which spatial heterogeneities in forests produce variations in backscatter, which collectively give rise to scene texture.

Day, John L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Experimentally-Derived Phase Function Approximations in Support of the Orbital Debris Program Office

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used various optical assets to acquire photometric data of Earth-orbiting objects to define the orbital debris environment. To better characterize and model optical data acquired from ground-based telescopes, the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA Johnson Space Center emulates illumination conditions seen in space by using equipment and techniques that parallel telescopic observations and source-target-sensor orientations. One of the OMC goals is to improve the size calculation used for optical data by developing an optical-based Size Estimation Model. The current size estimation requires applying a Lambertian phase function, a set albedo value, and range to the observed magnitude. The first step to improving the sampled brightness of laboratory targets is to remove aspect-angle dependencies. Then, the volume of possible object viewing angles is sampled at 21 combinations of azimuth and elevation angles for each solar phase angle. Finally, the acquired images are input into an image processing program that generates approximations for the object’s Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF) and phase function. The BRDF is a radiometric concept that identifies an object’s material composition by matching a BRDF approximated with photometric data collected by ground-based telescopes with a BRDF generated experimentally from a known object in the laboratory. This paper presents the initial BRDF and phase function approximations for various fragments/targets acquired in the OMC and how the findings will be incorporated into ODPO models. A Lambertian sphere is used as a baseline for initial size estimation calculations and phase function comparisons. Spacecraft materials and fragments from hypervelocity laboratory impact tests are also presented to compare against the current assumed Lambertian phase function used for size estimates. This paper presents the preliminary phase function analysis and plan forward to utilize a laboratory-based phase function to improve the current optical size estimates using BRDF measurements for a large volume of targets composed of various shapes, sizes, and materials.

Hostetler, J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Comparison Analysis of the Eastern Range False Cape 915-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler

The United States Space Force (USSF) is responsible for space vehicle launches at its Eastern Range (ER), which includes the Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS). Multiple systems are used to measure the atmosphere at the ER, including suites of Doppler Radar Wind Profilers (DRWPs) operating at 915MHz that measure winds within the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere. Observations of boundary layer winds can be used for multiple applications, including serving as input to toxic dispersion models and characterizing winds for low-level aborts. In fall 2020 the USSF requested NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Natural Environments Branch (NE) to evaluate wind output from the False Cape(FC) DRWP system (MSFC NE 2021). In that analysis, it was found that data availability was low in the lowest few hundred meters of a profile, shown in Figure 1. To increase the available data, the USSF modified the quality control (QC) algorithm for the FCDRWP, which collected data from October 2020 to January 2021. In Fall 2021, the USSF requested NASA’s MSFC NE to evaluate the modified QC algorithm by comparing the data processed by the modified method (referred to as beam data) to data processed with the original QC method (referred to as original data). This report describes the system and the analyses that MSFC NE conducted to compare the availability and quality of data from the two QC methods

Maggire Fielder↗
DOE OSTI2026

RHOD Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Rhode Island (RHOD). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main) and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

BLOC Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily netcdf files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Block Island (BLOC). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Nantucket Island (NANT, nant.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

NANT Site - NOAA PSL Wind Retrievals WINDoe / Derived Data

This dataset contains daily NetCDF files with horizontal wind profiles retrieved with the WINDoe retrieval (Gebauer and Bell 2024) at Nantucket Island (NANT). WINDoe retrievals datasets are also available at Block Island (BLOC, bloc.windoe.z01.c1) and Rhode Island (RHOD, rhod.windoe.z01.c1). WINDoe is an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve wind profiles combining multiple instruments. The code is available in this github repository (https://github.com/OAR-atmospheric-observations/WINDoe/tree/main), and the retrieval is described by Gebauer and Bell (2024). WINDoe allows combining the individual datasets and outputs into one profile taking into account the information and uncertainties of each dataset. The use of WINDoe minimizes data gaps and maximizes data availability, compared to using wind profiles from only one of the instruments. The regular height grid eases comparisons to numerical weather prediction models. Code modifications have been made that include reading in WFIP3 specific instruments, averaging Doppler lidar radial velocities at various azimuth angles to avoid overfitting, and allowing the user to define a height grid by the user in the vipfile. The instruments used as input to the retrieval are a radar wind profiler (low- and high resolution mode) providing data in and above the boundary layer, a scanning Doppler lidar usually providing data throughout the boundary layer, a profiling lidar providing data from 50 to 200 m at BLOC and NANT, and from 10 to 280 m at Rhode Island, and a surface tower (4 m at NANT and RHOD and 10 m at BLOC). From the scanning lidars, we used radial velocity measurements at 60 deg elevation angle at six different azimuth angles with a resolution of approximately 30 m along the line of sight and the lowest range gate at approximately 70 m. The wind profiles are retrieved with WINDoe up to 3.74 km with 10 m vertical resolution. The profiles are retrieved every 15 min at BLOC and NANT and every 60 min at RHOD.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1999

An EVA Suit Fatigue, Strength, and Reach Model

The number of Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVAs) performed will increase dramatically with the upcoming Space Station assembly missions. It is estimated that up to 900 EVA hours may be required to assemble the Space Station with an additional 200 hours per year for maintenance requirements. Efficient modeling tools will be essential to assist in planning these EVAS. Important components include strength and fatigue parameters, multi-body dynamics and kinematics. This project is focused on building a model of the EVA crew member encompassing all these capabilities. Phase 1, which is currently underway, involves collecting EMU suited and unsuited fatigue, strength and range of motion data, for all major joints of the body. Phase 2 involves processing the data for model input, formulating comparisons between the EMU suits and deriving generalized relationships between suited and unsuited data. Phase 3 will be formulation of a multi-body dynamics model of the EMU capable of predicting mass handling properties and integration of empirical data into the model. Phase 4 will be validation of the model with collected EMU data from the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory at NASA/JSC. Engineers and designers will use tie EVA suit database to better understand the capabilities of the suited individuals. This knowledge will lead to better design of tools and planned operations. Mission planners can use the modeling system and view the animations and the visualizations of the various parameters, such as overall fatigue, motion, timelines, reach, and strength to streamline the timing, duration, task arrangement, personnel and overall efficiency of the EVA tasks. Suit designers can use quantifiable data at common biomechanical structure points to better analyze and compare suit performance.

Maida, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Land Surface Reflectances from Geostationary Sensors

GEONEX is a processing pipeline that produces a suite of satellite land surface products using data streams from the latest geostationary (GEO) sensors including the GOES016/ABI and the Himawari-8/AHI. The suite, created collaboratively by scientists from NASA and NOAA, includes top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectances, land surface reflectances (LSRs), vegetation indices, LAI/fPAR, and other downstream products. As a key component of the GEONEX product processing, we have adapted the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm to produce LSRs from the TOA data. Because the algorithm depends on building "stacks" of images, we first run internal geo-registration checks to ensure geo-spatial accuracy and consistency of the input (L1B) data before transferring them from the geostationary projection into a tile system in geographic grids. Scan-time is inferred from metadata and applied to calculate the sun-sensor angles for each grid cell. The MAIAC algorithm is run to detect clouds/shadows, estimate aerosol optical thickness (AOT), perform atmospheric corrections, and generate LSRs. We have processed 18-months (from 2016/04 onward) of AHI data over East Asia and Oceania at a 10-minute time step and 10-months (from 2018/01 onward) of ABI data over North and South Americas at a 15-minute time step. As a verification measure, we compare the GEONEX (AHI/ABI) surface reflectances with the standard MODIS products (MOD09GA) and the MODIS MAIAC products over pixels that have similar sun-view geometries. The results indicate general linear relationships between GEONEX and corresponding MODIS LSRs. In particular, the RMSEs between GEONEX and MOD09 data are comparable to those between MOD09 and MODIS MAIAC products, suggesting that the uncertainties of GEONEX LSRs fall into an acceptable range. However, direct comparisons of LSRs over pixels with different sun-view angles are not as straightforward and require more modeling efforts to correct the directional effects. Evaluation of such angular influences on the downstream products (e.g., vegetation indices) is also under investigation.

Geostationary satellite; Remote Sensing; Atmospher↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning methods for obtaining photometric redshift estimations from images

ABSTRACT Knowing the redshift of galaxies is one of the first requirements of many cosmological experiments, and as it is impossible to perform spectroscopy for every galaxy being observed, photometric redshift (photo-z) estimations are still of particular interest. Here, we investigate different deep learning methods for obtaining photo-z estimates directly from images, comparing these with ‘traditional’ machine learning algorithms which make use of magnitudes retrieved through photometry. As well as testing a convolutional neural network (CNN) and inception-module CNN, we introduce a novel mixed-input model that allows for both images and magnitude data to be used in the same model as a way of further improving the estimated redshifts. We also perform benchmarking as a way of demonstrating the performance and scalability of the different algorithms. The data used in the study comes entirely from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) from which 1 million galaxies were used, each having 5-filtre (ugriz) images with complete photometry and a spectroscopic redshift which was taken as the ground truth. The mixed-input inception CNN achieved a mean squared error (MSE) =0.009, which was a significant improvement ($30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$) over the traditional random forest (RF), and the model performed even better at lower redshifts achieving a MSE = 0.0007 (a $50{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ improvement over the RF) in the range of z < 0.3. This method could be hugely beneficial to upcoming surveys, such as Euclid and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), which will require vast numbers of photo-z estimates produced as quickly and accurately as possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Broadband Characterization and Circuit Model Development of Transmission-Scale Transformers

This report describes broadband measurements of transmission-scale transformers typical in the electric power grid. This work was performed as part of the EMP Resilient Grid LDRD project at Sandia National Laboratories to generate circuit models that can be used for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) coupling simulations and response predictions. The objective of the work was to obtain characterization data of substation yard equipment across a frequency range relevant to HEMP. Vector network analyzer measurements up to 100 MHz were performed on two power transformers at ABB-Hitachi and a single ITEC potential transformer. Custom cable breakouts were designed to interface with the transformer terminals and provide ground connections to the chassis at the base of the transformer bushings. The three-phase terminals of the power transformers were measured as a common mode impedance using a parallel resistive splitter, and the single-phase terminals of the potential transformer were measured directly. A vector fitting algorithm was used to empirically fit circuit models to the resulting two-port networks and input impedances of the measured objects. Simplified circuit representations of the input impedances were also generated to assess the degree of precision needed for high-altitude electromagnetic pulse response predictions, which were performed in Sandia's XYCE circuit simulator platform. HEMP coupling simulations using the transformer models showed significant reduction in the voltage peak and broadening in the pulse width seen at the power transformer compared to the traveling wave voltage. This indicated the importance of the load condition when defining the coupled insult in an electric power substation. Simplified circuit models showed a similar voltage at the transformer with a smoothed waveform. The presence of potential transformers in the simulation did not significantly change the simulated voltage at the power transformer. Single-port input impedance models were also developed to define load conditions when transfer characteristics were not necessary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characteristics of Electromagnetic Pulse Propagation in Metal

It is well known that the solution of the diffusion equation for an electromagnetic field with a time harmonic term, e(sup iwt), is in the form of a traveling wave whose amplitude attenuates over distance into a conducting medium. As the attenuation is an increasing function of frequency, the high frequency components attenuate more rapidly than those of low ones upon entering a well conducting object. At the same time, the phase velocity of an individual component is also an increasing function of frequency causing a broadening of the pulse traveling inside a conductor. In the results of our previous study of numerical simulations, the problem of using a gaussian input pulse was immediately clear. First, having the dominant frequency components distributed around zero, the movement of the peak was not well defined. Second, with the amplitude of fourier components varying slowly over a wide range, the dispersion-induced blurring of the peak position was seen to be severe. For the present study, we have used a gaussian modulated single frequency sinusoidal wave, i. e., the carrier, as an input pulse in an effort to improve the issues related to the unclear movement of peak and dispersion as described above. This was based on the following two anticipated advantages: First, the packet moves in a conductor at the group velocity calculated at the carrier frequency, which means it is well controllable. Second, the amplitude of frequency components other than that of the carrier can be almost negligible, such that the effect of dispersion can be significantly reduced. A series of experiments of transmitting electromagnetic pulses through aluminum plates of various thickness was performed to test the validity of the above points. The results of numerical simulation based on wave propagation are discussed with respect to the experimental results. Finally, a simple simulation was performed based on diffusion of a continuous sine wave input and the results are compared with those of a single frequency sinusoidal wave observed over time at difference locations inside a conductor.

Namkung, M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Verifying Mars 2020 Sampling and Caching Robotic Functions with Position Budgeting Process and Tool

The Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover was launched on July 30th, 2020 with one of the most complex robotic systems ever implemented on an interplanetary mission. Much of this robotic complexity resides in the Rover Sampling and Caching Subsystem (SCS) to enable collection of Martian samples for eventual return to earth and preparation of surfaces for close-up surface science observations. Two robotic arms are used by SCS: the large Robotic Arm (RA) positions the coring drill and science instruments mounted to the Turret for surface interactions, and the smaller Sample Handling Assembly (SHA) manipulates Sample Tube Assemblies (STA) within the Adaptive Caching Assembly (ACA) to prepare them for sample collection, processing, and hermetic sealing. The robotic arms interact with the Martian surface and other SCS components in many ways and in a variety of configurations, with positioning accuracy requirements ranging from tens of millimeters for some surface interactions down to sub-millimeter accuracy for some ACA interactions.This paper describes the process and tool used to calculate the SCS robotic interaction positioning budgets and verify the as-built hardware when delivered. To ensure that these robotic systems are able to perform their tasks, each robotic interaction with another element was broken down into its composite functions. To calculate a positioning budget margin for each function, an allowable was defined and then compared to the list of error sources that contribute to misalignment. Across the subsystem, over 250 functions were identified to be assessed, with almost 500 error sources feeding into their budget calculations. In addition to using as-built values in the budgets for SCS Verification and Validation (V&V) after the hardware was complete, these budgets were populated with design data during the design phase to identify areas of concern and guide hardware design to ensure positive position budget margins.Because of the size of the SCS team that had inputs to the positioning budgets and the sheer number of items in the budgets that needed to be created, updated, and verified, having a tool that would allow for simultaneous access and robust data integrity and processing was imperative. To accomplish this, a web-based MySQL database was created that allowed users to create function position budgets, link individual errors and allowables to them, and view function position budget margin reports. Each error and allowable records data for lateral, normal, angular, and clocking errors, with the ability to add as-built data for up to four different hardware builds. Margin reports can be generated for either design values alone or replacing design data with as-built data when available. These as-built reports are used for final verification of the SCS positioning requirements. Ultimately, the SCS positioning budget process and database tool led to successful interactions during test and an SCS robotic system that is ready to perform sample acquisition and caching on the surface of Mars.

Williams, Jeffrey↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pseudorapidity dependence of anisotropic flow and its decorrelations using long-range multiparticle correlations in Pb–Pb and Xe–Xe collisions

The pseudorapidity dependence of elliptic (v 2 ), triangular (v 3 ), and quadrangular (v 4 ) flow coefficients of charged particles measured in Pb–Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV and in Xe–Xe collisions at $\sqrt{S_{NN}}$ = 5.44 TeV with ALICE at the LHC are presented. The measurements are performed in the pseudorapidity range − 3.5 < η < 5 for various centrality intervals using two- and multi-particle cumulants with the subevent method. The flow probability density function (p.d.f.) is studied with the ratio of flow coefficient v 2 calculated with four- and two-particle cumulant, and suggests that the variance of flow p.d.f. is independent of pseudorapidity. The decorrelation of the flow vector in the longitudinal direction is probed using two-particle correlations. The results measured with respect to different reference regions in pseudorapidity exhibit differences, argued to be a result of saturating decorrelation effect above a certain pseudorapidity separation, in contrast to previous publications which assign this observation to non-flow effects. The results are compared to 3 + 1 dimensional hydrodynamic and the AMPT transport model calculations. Neither of the models is able to simultaneously describe the pseudorapidity dependence of measurements of anisotropic flow and its fluctuations. The results presented in this work highlight shortcomings in our current understanding of initial conditions and subsequent system expansion in the longitudinal direction. Therefore, they provide input for its improvement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration

As modern society becomes ever more dependent on the availability of electric power, the costs that could arise from individual and social vulnerability to large outages of long duration (LLD-outages) increases. During such an outage, even a small amount of power would be very valuable. Here, this article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if local distribution system lines are destroyed, only individual back-up systems could provide contingency power until those lines are repaired. Costs might be reduced if more robust distributed generation were employed that could be operated continuously with the ability to sell power back to the grid. Our cost-effectiveness analysis only assesses what could be done, developing estimates of preparedness cost. A decision about what should be done would require additional input from a range of stakeholders as well as some form of analytical deliberative process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of neutron dosimetry capabilities with the MC-15 portable multiplicity counter

This work proposes a preliminary neutron dose rate estimation method for a neutron multiplicity detector through measurement- and simulation-based analyses. Uncharacterized neutron-emitting sources may be encountered in situations such as nuclear emergency response, safeguards, and treaty verification. These circumstances may present irradiation risk to personnel conducting field assay, search, and characterization measurements. It is therefore of interest to provide a field neutron dosimetry capability with the existing neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) capabilities. To date, no commercially-available neutron detection systems are capable of both accurate NMC and real-time neutron dosimetry. This work will focus on estimating dose rate using input from a single fielded NMC called the MC-15. The energy-dependent neutron detection efficiency response of the MC-15 was quantified in monoenergetic neutron simulations and evaluated in response to two neutron-emitting sources and to a polyethylene-moderated source. The results were compared to existing neutron dosimeters and established the proof of concept for further investigation of the MC-15 for dose estimation. Measurement results were also replicated in simulations; additional simulations were then conducted to expand upon the limited empirical data. The initial empirical results provided a conversion factor appropriate for use when measuring 252 Cf neutrons that is independent of polyethylene shielding presence and thickness. The simulated data sets were then used to evaluate a fit equation allowing estimation of the neutron dose rate for less restricted geometric configurations and dependent only on the distance between the source and the detector. Additionally, the energy dependence of the efficiency response indicates that further empirical evaluations could provide energy-dependent conversion factors for broader neutron dosimetry capabilities with a wider range of neutron-emitting sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

25-Pin metallic fuel performance benchmark case based on the EBR-II X430 experiments series

A metallic fuel benchmark case was developed for the fuel performance code BISON based on 25 uranium-zirconium and uranium-plutonium-zirconium pins of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II X430 experiment series. Results of the benchmarks were compared with measurements and calculations made at the time of the experiment as well as subsequent measurements reported in 2019. The comparisons were used to quantify the accuracy of the BISON predictions and to identify patterns in the BISON differences.BISON predicted burnup, plenum pressure, and fission gas release fractions accurately. BISON temperature predictions were somewhat cooler than the temperatures determined at the time of the experiment but appeared to be reasonably accurate considering uncertainties in the legacy temperature calculations, uncertainties in the legacy linear heat rate calculations, and the high sensitivities of the BISON-predicted temperatures to BISON inputs. Fuel axial elongation predictions had errors correlated to fuel composition; BISON tended to underpredict the elongation of binary fuels and overpredict the elongation of ternary fuels. BISON cladding radial dilation predictions were also significantly lower than legacy PIE measurements.Recommendations were made to improve the BISON fuel gaseous swelling model to account for fuel composition, to add additional capabilities to the coolant channel temperature model to ease benchmark development, and to continue developing benchmark cases based on a wide range of experiments in several reactors. Once a wide array of benchmarks is developed, an attempt can be made to enhance or calibrate BISON models to improve the cladding dilation predictions.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of recent ENDF nuclear data update, high initial enrichment and high burnup fuel on critical experiments applicability determination via the integral index c k for burnup credit validation

In 2012, NUREG/CR-7109 reported on the validation of burnup credit calculations involving major and minor actinides and major fission products which was investigated for pressurized and boiling water reactor (PWR and BWR) fuel enrichments up to 5 wt% 235 U and assembly-average burnups up to 60 GWd/MTU. Recently, there has been interest in increasing the maximum enrichment used in PWR fuel as high as 8 wt% 235 U and correspondingly increasing the maximum assembly-average burnups to approximately 75 GWd/MTU. These proposed increases in enrichment and burnup necessitate reinvestigation of the validation basis for k eff calculations for this expanded application space. Additionally, the 2012 study was performed by using the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.0 nuclear data with the SCALE 6 covariance library, and the effects of using the newly released ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data and covariance libraries should be evaluated. In this work, published in NUREG/CR-7309 in 2025, the validation assessment was performed consistently with NUREG/CR-7109: modeling irradiated fuel assemblies in the Generic Burnup Credit (GBC)-32 cask defined in NUREG/CR-6747. The TSUNAMI-3D sequence was used to generate sensitivity data for the application model, and the data were compared with sensitivity data from select benchmark models. The integral parameter c k is the metric of similarity used in this study and is consistent with NUREG/CR-7109, where a c k value in excess of 0.8 indicates sufficient similarity for use in validation. A new set of benchmark experiments with sensitivity data has been assembled for this effort. The number of experiments with available sensitivity data is now 2,104, compared to 474 in NUREG/CR-7109. This increase was facilitated by the efforts of the Nuclear Energy Agency to generate sensitivity data for a majority of the experiments in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook to supplement the data available in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID). The complete set of benchmarks considered here includes experiments for low-enriched uranium (LEU), intermediate enriched uranium (IEU), and a mixture of uranium and plutonium (MIX) from the ICSBEP Handbook and VALID, as well as ORNL models of the Haut Taux de Combustion (HTC) experiments and other potentially relevant models not included in VALID. The updated similarity study shows that none of the extended burnup and higher enrichment combinations considered show a significant decrease in the number of potentially applicable experiments, meaning sufficient critical experiments exist for the validation of BUC criticality safety calculations, with initial enrichments up to 8 wt% 235 U and burnups up to 80 GWd/MTU. Additionally, both the ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data libraries can be used for validation since the number of critical experiments applicable for validation increases for most cases with the most recent nuclear data compared to the previous one. As in previous BUC validation studies, the French HTC experiments are the most similar in a majority of the application cases studied, especially from representative discharge burnups ranging from 40 to 80 GWd/MTU. In conclusion, these results match the conclusions presented in NUREG/CR-7109 regarding validation of the primary actinides in BUC analyses.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗