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There is More to the Autopilot Button than Meets the Eye

Following a series of crashes in which semiautonomous cars collided with high-visibility emergency vehicles, this article looks at the human factors challenges of partially automated driving. I review recent research that investigates the capabilities of driver assist systems, the limits of human attention and vigilance, the impact of automation use on driver fatigue, and driver understanding of all of the above. I review the efforts being made to align driver understanding with system reality: instructions and warnings, point-of-sale driver training, automation training standards, and vehicle design. I conclude that several important safety concepts, revealed by research, have yet to be effectively communicated to drivers who will need them to operate these cars safely.

automation↗

Conditions in the WR 140 Wind-Collision Region Revealed by the 1.083-mu m Hei Line Profile

We present spectroscopy of the P Cygni profile of the 1.083-μm He I line in the WC7+O5 colliding-wind binary (CWB) WR 140 (HD 193793), observed in 2008, before its periastron passage in 2009, and in 2016–2017, spanning the subsequent periastron passage. Both absorption and emission components showed strong variations. The variation of the absorption component as the O5 star was occulted by the wind-collision region (WCR) sets a tight constraint on its geometry. While the sightline to the O5 star traversed the WCR, the strength and breadth of the absorption component varied significantly on time-scales of days. An emission subpeak was observed on all our profiles. The variation of its radial velocity with orbital phase was shown to be consistent with formation in the WCR as it swung round the stars in their orbit. Modelling the profile gives a measure of the extent of the subpeak-forming region. In the phase range 0.93–0.99, the flux in the subpeak increased steadily, approximately inversely proportionally to the stellar separation, indicating that the shocked gas in the WCR where the line was formed was adiabatic. After periastron, the subpeak flux was anomalously strong and varied rapidly, suggesting formation in clumps downstream in the WCR. For most of the time, its flux exceeded the 2–10-keV X-ray emission, showing it to be a significant coolant of the shocked wind.

Peredur M Williams↗

Predicting the Penetration of a Shielded TPS Tile

All spacecraft are subject to the possibility of high-speed particle impacts during their mission life. In low earth orbit, those impacts could be the result of collisions with pieces of orbital debris or with meteorites. Beyond LEO, and especially beyond GEO, those impacts will likely be caused by meteorites. Such high-speed impacts on spacecraft surfaces create debris clouds that travel towards and eventually impact other downstream spacecraft components. In addition to the impulsive load that such debris clouds would impart to the spacecraft elements with which they subsequently collide, the largest fragment in these debris clouds poses a significant threat on its own to those spacecraft elements. In order to be able to assess the severity of the threat posed by such a fragment, it is important to be able to predict the extent of damage sustained by the impacted spacecraft element. In this paper, we present a new process for determining the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system. The requirements for the process were that it be applicable across a full spectrum of impact low velocities (i.e. from ~ 7 km/s to above 50 km/s), that it be applicable over a wide range of projectile materials densities (i.e. ranging from water to steel, for example), and that it be applicable over a wide range of trajectory obliquities (i.e. not just normal impacts). Furthermore, the process developed should be sufficiently flexible so that it can be used for shield design parameter and / or system configuration trade studies (i.e. be written in terms of as many shield and TPS tile system parameters as possible). Following the initial impact of the projectile on the outer wall of the dual-wall shield, a debris cloud (i.e. the primary debris cloud) is created that travels towards and impacts the inner wall of the shield. Within this debris cloud is a combination of solid, liquid, and vaporized material, depending on the impact velocity and the impedance mismatch of the projectile and outer wall materials. The impact of this debris cloud on the inner wall creates another debris cloud (i.e. the secondary debris cloud) that then travels towards and impacts the TPS tile. Within the particulate distribution of the material in each of these debris clouds is a so-called largest fragment. The process used to calculate the penetration depth in a shielded TPS tile system developed herein consists of the following three steps: 1. Does the initial projectile perforate the outer wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the outer wall of the shield and traveling towards the shield’s inner wall. 2. Does the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the outer wall of the shield perforate the inner wall of the shield? If NO, the TPS tile again remains undamaged. If YES, calculate the size and speed of the largest fragment exiting the rear of the shield inner wall. 3. Calculate the penetration depth of the largest fragment in the debris cloud exiting the inner wall into the TPS. Perforation of the inner and outer shield walls is predicted using the Cour-Palais penetration depth equation and an associated failure criterion [1]. The largest debris cloud fragment diameters and associated velocities are calculated using regression equations developed from a mix of hydrocode and experimental diameter and velocity information [2]. Finally, TPS penetration depths are calculated using an empirical penetration depth predictor equation based on high-speed impact test data and are calibrated using a limited number of hydrocode penetration depth predictions for water, nylon, aluminum, Dunite, and steel projectiles The predictions of the penetration depth calculation process are compared against the predictions of more than 60 SPHC hydrocode runs. These comparisons show that the process used to calculate TPS tile penetration depths usually yields values that are within 1 mm of the predictions of hydrocode simulations. If a maximum allowable TPS penetration depth is known, the process developed herein can now be used to develop a failure limit equation that would predict whether or not an impacting particle would penetrate deeply enough into the TPS to result in a “failed” or “not failed” end state. References [1] E.L. Christiansen, “Design and performance equations for advanced meteoroid and debris shields”, International Journal of Impact Engineering, Vol. 14, 1993, pp. 145-156. [2] W.P. Schonberg, “Predicting the size of the largest particle fragment in a debris cloud created by an orbital debris impact and its associated velocity”, 2021 Applied Space Environments Conference, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, November, 2021.

Meteroid↗

Constraints on Mechanisms of Chondrule Formation from Chondrule Precursors and Chronology of Transient Heating Events in the Protoplanetary Disk

The mineralogy, petrography, and oxygen-isotope compositions of porphyritic chondrules—dominant chondrule type in most chondrite groups—suggest formation by incomplete melting of isotopically diverse precursors during localized transient heating events in dust-rich regions of the protoplanetary disk characterized by 16O-poor compositions (D17Odust+gas~ –7‰ to +4‰) relative to the inferred Sun’s value (D17O ~ –28 ± 2‰). The chondrule precursors included Ca,Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), amoeboid olivine aggregates (AOAs), chondrules of earlier generations, fine-grained matrix-like material, and possibly fragments of pre-existing planetesimals. Like porphyritic chondrules, igneous CAIs formed by melting of isotopically diverse precursors during transient heating events, but in an isotopically distinct, solar-like reservoir of the protoplanetary disk (D17O dust + gas ~ –24‰), probably near the proto Sun. Based on a narrow range of the initial 26Al/27Alratios inferred from the internal Al-Mg isochrons in igneous CAIs, their melting started at the very beginning of Solar System formation (t0), defined by the CV CAIs with U-corrected Pb-Pb age of 4567.3 ± 0.16 Ma and the canonical 26Al/27Al ratio of (5.25 ± 0.02) ¥ 10–5, and lasted at least 0.3 Ma. The U-corrected Pb-Pb absolute and 26Al-26Mg relative ages of porphyritic chondrules from type 3 ordinary, CO, CV, and CR carbonaceous chondrites (assuming uniform distribution of 26Al in the disk at the canonical level) suggest chondrule formation started at t0 and lasted for about 4 Ma. These observations may preclude formation of the majority of porphyritic chondrules by splashing of differentiated planetesimals and by collisions between planetesimals; instead, they are consistent with melting of dust balls by bow shocks or magnetized turbulence in the disk. Some porphyritic chondrules in equilibrated (petrologic type 4–6) ordinary chondrites contain relict fragments of coarse-grained chromite, ilmenite, phosphates, and albitic plagioclase. The similar mineral assemblage is commonly observed in type 4–6 ordinary chondrites, but is absent in type 3 chondrites, suggesting these chondrules formed by incomplete melting of thermally metamorphosed ordinary chondrite material, possibly by impacts. The CB metal-rich carbonaceous chondrites contain exclusively magnesian non-porphyritic chondrules crystallized from complete melts. These chondrules formed in a gas-melt plume generated by a hypervelocity (≥20 km/s) collision between planetesimals ~4.8 Ma after t0 in a transition or a debris disk. One of the colliding bodies was probably differentiated. The CH metal-rich carbonaceous chondrites contain chondrules formed by different mechanisms. The magnesian non-porphyritic chondrules formed in the CB impact plume ~4.8 Ma after t0. The chemically diverse (magnesian, ferroan, and Al-rich) porphyritic chondrules formed by incomplete melting of isotopically diverse precursors in the protoplanetary disk, most likely prior the CB impact plume event. We conclude that there are multiple mechanisms of chondrule formation that operated over the entire life-time of the disk.

Chondrules↗

Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) Electrometer Instrument Development

The Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) is a joint venture between the University of Central Florida (UCF) Center for Microgravity Research (CMR) and the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Electrostatics and Surface Physics Laboratory (ESPL) seeking to examine charged dust grain behavior in a microgravity environment. Two separate systems have been combined for this suborbital flight experiment: the COLLisions Into Dust Experiment (COLLIDE) developed by the UCF CMR and the Wheel Electrostatic Spectrometer (WES) developed by the NASA KSC ESPL. This combination will advance the understanding of the natural and induced charged grain behavior on the Moon, asteroids, and other low gravity bodies comprised of charged dust particles.

Electrostatics↗

Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) Electrometer Initial Flight Results

The Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) is a suborbital flight payload studying electrostatically charged dust particle dynamics under microgravity, jointly developed by University of Central Florida (UCF) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). ERIE combines components from two systems, the COLLisions Into Dust Experiment (COLLIDE) from UCF and the Wheel Electrostatic Spectrometer (WES) from NASA KSC, to advance understanding of charged grain behavior on low gravity bodies such as the Moon and asteroids. ERIE slides a door containing an electrometer system monitoring various insulating disks across the surface of a regolith simulant bed. The experiment is activated when the payload enters the microgravity potion of the flight. The grains in the simulant bed tribocharge via agitation during launch as well as through frictional interactions with the door and its protruding insulators. As the retention door retracts, particles are allowed to loft into an open volume, achieving motion due to electrostatic repulsion. The electrometer system measures the charge transfer between the granular material and the insulators. As the charged grains exit the bed, they travel through an applied electric field and a camera observes the kinematics of the individual grains whose trajectories are determined by their net charges. The design of the ERIE electrometer instrument and initial results from the first flight was presented at the 2021 AGU Fall Meeting under P55E-2002. Shortly after microgravity was achieved and the retaining door began to open, the rate of charge acquisition measured by the electrometer increased, indicating the insulators were accumulating triboelectric charge. Charged grains were observed in the video data to traverse across the external electric field and become deflected from a linear path due to their charges. Pairs of grains were also observed to orbit one another as expected from two oppositely charged bodies in proximity to one another. Improvements to the design of the instrument and preliminary results obtained from the second flight scheduled for Q3 2022 will be presented at this meeting.

Electrostatics↗

Nested Dust Shells Around the Wolf–Rayet Binary WR 140 Observed With JWST

Massive colliding-wind binaries that host a Wolf–Rayet (WR) star present a potentially important source of dust and chemical enrichment in the interstellar medium. However, the chemical composition and survival of dust formed from such systems is not well understood. The carbon-rich Wolf–Rayet binary WR 140 presents an ideal astrophysical laboratory for investigating these questions, given its well-defined orbital period and predictable dust-formation episodes every 7.93 years around periastron passage. We present observations from our Early Release Science programme (ERS 1349) with the James Webb Space Telescope Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) Medium-Resolution Spectrometer and Imager that reveal the spectral and spatial signatures of nested circumstellar dust shells around WR 140. MIRI medium-resolution spectroscopy of the second dust shell and Imager detections of over 17 shells formed throughout approximately the past 130 years confirm the survival of carbonaceous dust grains from WR 140 that are probably carriers of ‘unidentified infrared’-band features at 6.4 and 7.7 μm. The observations indicate that dust-forming carbon-rich Wolf–Rayet binaries can enrich the interstellar medium with organic compounds and carbonaceous dust.

massive stars↗

A Strategic Approach for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Drone usage has been on the rise in recent years with applications that include parcel delivery, wildlife protection, precision farming, law enforcement, and industrial inspection, just to name a few. Once regulations and safety policies are put in place to allow for the widespread use of unmanned drones, the number of aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS) is expected to skyrocket to millions, potentially congesting the airspace which increases the likelihood of separation violations and possibly incidents. Currently, flight infrastructure can only support a few thousand aircraft flying over the United States National Airspace System (NAS) at any given time. A delay at one airport can send ripple effects throughout the system, causing more delays and missed connections. In air traffic control, separation is the concept of keeping an “ownship” aircraft outside a minimum distance from “intruder” aircraft to reduce the risk of the aircraft colliding, as well as preventing accidents due to secondary factors, such as wake turbulence. Maintaining proper separation is often a safety critical property for fixed-wing drones in the airspace. This paper addresses drone separation in time and distance for high volume corridors (en route) and lanes (on ground), merging as well as crossing intersections of multiple corridors/lanes. In this paper, the term drone is applied to both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and small Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) vehicles operating autonomously. There exists a gamut of approaches to the merging and crossing problems. At one end of the extreme are the conservative yet low cost and verifiable solutions of today that deal with two drones at a time. At the other end are complex Machine Learning-based solutions with high computing requirements for fully autonomous drones of the future that are expected to handle all contentions. This paper presents a feasible and verifiable strategic approach to these problems that is based on distributed cooperation between the drones and the infrastructure. Three phases of the strategic approach (Prepare, Adjust, Commit) are presented. Simulation results are presented that show the proposed approach is stable and resilient to induced perturbations and guarantees a set of fixed-wing drones to merge and cross intersections by adjusting their speed based on their distance to the aircraft in front of them while remaining in the equilibrium state. The equilibrium state is defined as the state when a set of n aircraft move at a relatively constant speed and uniform spacing from each other in a congested system. A congested system is defined as the state when at least one aircraft cannot move at its maximum allowed speed. Unlike existing centralized and pre-planned approaches, the proposed solution is fully distributed and enables autonomous aircraft to decide to adjust their speed and distance with respect to the preceding aircraft, dynamically. Simulation results are presented that assess the feasibility of the approach.

Distributed↗

A Strategic Approach for Dense, Integrated, Vehicle Navigation

Drone usage has been on the rise in recent years with applications that include parcel delivery, wildlife protection, precision farming, law enforcement, and industrial inspection, just to name a few. Once regulations and safety policies are put in place to allow for the widespread use of unmanned drones, the number of aircraft in the National Airspace System (NAS) is expected to skyrocket to millions, potentially congesting the airspace which increases the likelihood of separation violations and possibly incidents. Currently, flight infrastructure can only support a few thousand aircraft flying over the United States National Airspace System (NAS) at any given time. A delay at one airport can send ripple effects throughout the system, causing more delays and missed connections. In air traffic control, separation is the concept of keeping an “ownship” aircraft outside a minimum distance from “intruder” aircraft to reduce the risk of the aircraft colliding, as well as preventing accidents due to secondary factors, such as wake turbulence. Maintaining proper separation is often a safety critical property for fixed-wing drones in the airspace. This paper addresses drone separation in time and distance for high volume corridors (en route) and lanes (on ground), merging as well as crossing intersections of multiple corridors/lanes. In this paper, the term drone is applied to both Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and small Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) vehicles operating autonomously. There exists a gamut of approaches to the merging and crossing problems. At one end of the extreme are the conservative yet low cost and verifiable solutions of today that deal with two drones at a time. At the other end are complex Machine Learning-based solutions with high computing requirements for fully autonomous drones of the future that are expected to handle all contentions. This paper presents a feasible and verifiable strategic approach to these problems that is based on distributed cooperation between the drones and the infrastructure. Three phases of the strategic approach (Prepare, Adjust, Commit) are presented. Simulation results are presented that show the proposed approach is stable and resilient to induced perturbations and guarantees a set of fixed-wing drones to merge and cross intersections by adjusting their speed based on their distance to the aircraft in front of them while remaining in the equilibrium state. The equilibrium state is defined as the state when a set of n aircraft move at a relatively constant speed and uniform spacing from each other in a congested system. A congested system is defined as the state when at least one aircraft cannot move at its maximum allowed speed. Unlike existing centralized and pre-planned approaches, the proposed solution is fully distributed and enables autonomous aircraft to decide to adjust their speed and distance with respect to the preceding aircraft, dynamically. Simulation results are presented that assess the feasibility of the approach.

Distributed↗

Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) Electrometer Initial Flight Results

The Electrostatic Regolith Interaction Experiment (ERIE) is a suborbital flight payload studying electrostatically charged dust particle dynamics under microgravity, jointly developed by University of Central Florida (UCF) and NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). ERIE combines components from two systems, the COLLisions Into Dust Experiment (COLLIDE) from UCF and the Wheel Electrostatic Spectrometer (WES) from NASA KSC, to advance understanding of charged grain behavior on low gravity bodies such as the Moon and asteroids. ERIE slides a door containing an electrometer system monitoring various insulating disks across the surface of a regolith simulant bed. The experiment is activated when the payload enters the microgravity potion of the flight. The grains in the simulant bed tribocharge via agitation during launch as well as through frictional interactions with the door and its protruding insulators. As the retention door retracts, particles are allowed to loft into an open volume, achieving motion due to electrostatic repulsion. The electrometer system measures the charge transfer between the granular material and the insulators. As the charged grains exit the bed, they travel through an applied electric field and a camera observes the kinematics of the individual grains whose trajectories are determined by their net charges. The design of the ERIE electrometer instrument and initial results from the first flight was presented at the 2021 AGU Fall Meeting under P55E-2002. Shortly after microgravity was achieved and the retaining door began to open, the rate of charge acquisition measured by the electrometer increased, indicating the insulators were accumulating triboelectric charge. Charged grains were observed in the video data to traverse across the external electric field and become deflected from a linear path due to their charges. Pairs of grains were also observed to orbit one another as expected from two oppositely charged bodies in proximity to one another. Improvements to the design of the instrument and preliminary results obtained from the second flight scheduled for Q3 2022 will be presented at this meeting.

Electrostatics↗

Electrification Within Wintertime Stratiform Regions Sampled During the 2020/2022 NASA IMPACTS Field Campaign

Two nor'easter events—sampled during the NASA Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) field campaign—were examined to characterize the microphysics in relation to the underlying electrification processes within wintertime stratiform regions. A theoretical model was developed to determine whether accretion or diffusion growth regimes were preferential during periods of greatest electrification. Model simulation with electrification parameterization was used to provide supplemental context to the physical processes of in-cloud microphysics and electrification. The strongest electric fields (i.e., ∼80 V m −1 at 20 km) during the 2020 NASA IMPACTS deployment was associated with large non-rimed ice crystals colliding with each other. During the 29–30 January 2022 science flight, the NASA P-3 microphysical probe data demonstrated that non-inductive charging was possible off the coastline of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Later in the science flight, when the NASA P-3 and ER-2 were coordinating with each other, measured electric fields consistently were less than 8 V m −1 and electrification was subdued owing to reduced concentrations of graupel and large ice hydrometeors. Altogether, the in-situ observations provide evidence for the non-riming collisional charging mechanism and demonstrates that graupel and supercooled liquid water may not be necessary for weak electrification within wintertime stratiform regions. Model output from simulation of both events suggested that the main synoptic snowbands were associated with elevated hydrometeor snow charge density and electric fields.

snowfall↗

Conjunction Assessment and Deconfliction Paradigm for Co-Located Satellite Constellations With on-Spacecraft “Autonomous” Flight Dynamics Control

Satellite constellations that employ on-spacecraft flight dynamics and conjunction assessment (CA) approaches face particular challenges. First, they must arrange to obtain and upload to the constellation satellite close approach information, such as Conjunction Data Messages, so that their on-board systems will have the data they need to make informed CA decisions. Second, given current latencies in obtaining CA screening information, such systems often cannot obtain dedicated screenings of their proposed maneuvers before they are executed. Third, they usually cannot engage in real time with owner/operators (O/Os) with whom they may come into conjunction, relying instead on pre-arranged courses of action that may or may not fit a given situation well. Despite these difficulties, it is nonetheless possible, as operators such as SpaceX have demonstrated, to operate safely using on-board CA calculations, in the presence of a largely collaborative operating environment. The situation breaks down, however, when two constellations that operate with such a paradigm are placed in the same orbital region and will experience conjunctions with each other. Each may have a vague idea of where the other’s satellites are, or perhaps even a somewhat precise idea if they exchange O/O ephemerides, but neither will know the other’s more immediate maneuver intentions, especially for situations in which they are in a high-risk conjunction with each other and a mitigation maneuver is required. As there is no formalized way for these automated systems to ascertain each other’s intentions for this type of conjunction, it is quite possible that each spacecraft may choose a maneuver that results in the two objects’ colliding. An opportunity to develop a solution to this problem was presented by the NASA “Starling” project, a small experimental constellation developed to demonstrate autonomous satellite control and constellation reconfiguration and for which a launch was obtained that, serendipitously, will place this constellation close to the SpaceX Starlink constellation. Because the NASA constellation is experimental, an extended mission part of the mission has been negotiated to implement and test mechanisms for resolving the problem of co-located constellations with on-board flight dynamics control. For the last eighteen months, a consortium among NASA Ames (the Starling satellite providers), NASA CARA (the Agency organization responsible for conjunction assessment), Space X, and the Department of Commerce (in observer status) has met regularly to assemble a concept of operations for a robust solution to this problem and has developed a prototype ground node that will serve as a needed CA screening and information dispensary. The approach and methods, as well as the active employment of the developed ground node, will be tested both in simulation before actual use and then in actual spacecraft operations, which are anticipated to begin in January 2024. This paper will describe the co-located autonomously-controlled constellation problem and the developed solution in detail, outlining what ground node (i.e., government) infrastructure and features are required, what particular capabilities are needed by the constellations themselves in order to make use of this deconfliction paradigm, and the migration path forward to allow such a capability set to be incorporated by the Department of Commerce’s space traffic coordination system.

Conjunction Assessment↗

Eta Carinae: An Evolving View of the Central Binary, Its Interacting Winds and Its Foreground Ejecta

FUV spectra of η Car, recorded across two decades with HST/STIS, document multiple changes in resonant lines caused by dissipating extinction in our line of sight. The FUV flux has increased nearly tenfold, which has led to increased ionization of the multiple shells within the Homunculus and photodestruction of H 2 . Comparison of observed resonant line profiles with CMFGEN model profiles allows separation of wind–wind collision and shell absorptions from the primary wind P Cygni profiles. The dissipating occulter preferentially obscured the central binary and interacting winds relative to the very extended primary wind. We are now able to monitor changes in the colliding winds with orbital phase. High-velocity transient absorptions occurred across the most recent periastron passage, indicating acceleration of the primary wind by the secondary wind, which leads to a downstream, high-velocity bow shock that is newly generated every orbital period. There is no evidence of changes in the properties of the binary winds.

Massive stars↗

Theoretical Study of Interhemispheric Electron Bouncing Within Pulsating Aurora

Wave-particle interaction processes in the equatorial magnetosphere initiate time-dependent electron precipitation in the pulsating aurora. These electrons enter loss-cone and bounce between the two magnetically conjugate hemispheres, collide with the atmospheric constituents, and introduce additional time scales in electron precipitation dynamics. In this letter we present preliminary results of pulsating aurora formation using the time-dependent SuperThermal Electron Transport code, which considers the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere energy coupling between the two magnetically conjugate regions and discuss their contribution to the peculiarities of electron distribution function formation within the pulsating aurora.

Pulsating Aurora↗

Origin of High-Energy Protons Responsible for Late-Phase Pion-Decay Gamma-Ray Continuum from the Sun

Gamma-ray emission from solar eruptions can last far beyond the impulsive phase of the associated flares, and hence termed as sustained gamma-ray emission (SGRE). These gamma-rays result from the decay of neutral pions produced when >300 MeV protons collide with hydrogen and heavier elements in the solar photosphere. The source of protons producing SGRE has two possible origins: (i) particles accelerated in the associated flare are somehow trapped in magnetic structures and diffuse slowly to the chromosphere, and (ii) particles accelerated at the shock front that diffuse back to the Sun. In this presentation, we compile currently available observations and inferences that support these two possibilities. We use the gamma-ray data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi/LAT) in conjunction with coronal mass ejection (CME) data from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and type II radio burst information from the Wind spacecraft. We also use the GOES soft X-ray flare information.

Nat Gopalswamy↗

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗

Automating Maneuvers: Considerations for Collision Avoidance

As more space operators implement large constellations of spacecraft, automating orbit maintenance maneuvers becomes a key feature of their operations concept to ensure that the workload is manageable. However the practice of performing a maneuver without sharing the plan with other nearby spacecraft causes a risk that two spacecraft will collide, not only destroying the spacecraft involved, but creating debris that will affect all other spacecraft using that orbit regime. In order to share the maneuver plan, a predicted ephemeris file containing the maneuver must be sent to a central authority to screen against predicted trajectories of all other on-orbit objects to determine where and when close approaches may occur that need to be mitigated. Currently the screening authority used by US operators is the 19th Space Defense Squadron. However the conjunction screening process in use by the 19th was developed over 30 years ago and was not designed with automation in mind, so screenings are performed once every 8 hours, meaning that spacecraft using automated maneuvering need to allow 16 hours to share their maneuver plan via the screening process. Many operators assume that automated maneuver planning must be real-time; however this time between planning and execution to allow for screening is possible if planned for during system design. In an effort to speed up the screening process, NASA has developed a prototype system for performing near-real-time screenings. This prototype system was necessitated to support the NASA Starling mission, a constellation of 4 cubesats that planned to fly at the same altitude as the SpaceX Starlink constellation, both performing automated maneuvering. Without screening of the planned maneuvers, the two constellations risked a collision. Once converted from a prototype to an operational system, this capability will greatly help smallsats, for example those that are planning to test propulsive capabilities, by allowing fast turnaround feedback to ensure safety form collision with other objects. This paper describes the existing CA process, the prototype real-time capability, and results from the experiment that tested the prototype.

Matthew Hejduk↗

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗