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At least 577 records · Page 32

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called direct effect , aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called indirect effects, whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the elevated heat pump hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South .and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Aerosol-Water Cycle Interaction: A New Challenge in Monsoon Climate Research

Long recognized as a major environmental hazard, aerosol is now known to have strong impacts on both regional and global climate. It has been estimated that aerosol may reduce by up to 10% of the seasonal mean solar radiation reaching the earth surface, producing a global cooling effect that opposes global warming (Climate Change 2001). This means that the potential perils that humans have committed to global warming may be far greater than what we can detect at the present. As a key component of the Earth climate system, the water cycle is profoundly affected by the presence of aerosols in the atmosphere. Through the so-called "direct effect", aerosol scatters and/or absorbs solar radiation, thus cooling the earth surface and changing the horizontal and vertical radiational heating contrast in the atmosphere. The heating contrast drives anomalous atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes in convection, clouds, and rainfall. Another way aerosol can affect the water cycle is through the so-called "indirect effects", whereby aerosol increases the number of cloud condensation nuclei, prolongs life time of clouds, and inhibits the growth of cloud drops to raindrops. This leads to more clouds, and increased reflection of solar radiation, and further cooling at the earth surface. In monsoon regions, the response of the water cycle to aerosol forcing is especially complex, not only because of presence of diverse mix of aerosol species with vastly different radiative properties, but also because the monsoon is strongly influenced by ocean and land surface processes, land use, land change, as well as regional and global greenhouse warming effects. Thus, sorting out the impacts of aerosol forcing, and interaction with the monsoon water cycle is a very challenging problem. In this talk, I will offer some insights into how aerosols may impact the Asian monsoon based on preliminary results from satellite observations and climate model experiments. Specifically, I will discuss the "elevated heat pump" hypothesis, involving atmospheric heating by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) over the southern slopes of the Himalayas, and feedback with the deep convection, in modifying monsoon water cycle over South and East Asia. The role of aerosol forcing relative to those due to sea surface temperature and land surface processes, as well as observation requirements to verify such a hypothesis will also be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Analysis of Near-Cloud Changes in Atmospheric Aerosols Using Satellite Observations and Global Model Simulations

This paper examines cloud-related variations of atmospheric aerosols that occur in partly cloudy regions containing low-altitude clouds. The goal is to better understand aerosol behaviors and to help better represent the radiative effects of aerosols on climate. For this, the paper presents a statistical analysis of a multi-month global dataset that combines data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite instruments with data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) global reanalysis. Among other findings, the results reveal that near-cloud enhancements in lidar backscatter (closely related to aerosol optical depth) are larger (1) over land than ocean by 35%, (2) near optically thicker clouds by substantial amounts, (3) for sea salt than for other aerosol types, with the difference from dust reaching 50%. Finally, the study found that mean lidar backscatter is higher near clouds not because of large-scale variations in meteorological conditions, but because of local processes associated with individual clouds. The results help improve our understanding of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and our ability to represent them in climate models and other atmospheric models

aerosol↗

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated with Biomass Burning Aerosol over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

The quantification of radiative forcing due to the cumulative effects of aerosols, both directly and on cloud properties, remains the biggest source of uncertainty in our understanding of the physical climate. How the magnitude of these effects may be modified by meteorological conditions is an important aspect of this question. The Southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning (BB) smoke plumes overlying a persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers a perfect natural observatory in which to study the complexities of aerosol-cloud interactions. The NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign consists of three field deployments over three years (2016-2018) with the goal of gaining a better understanding of the complex processes (direct and indirect) by which BB aerosols affect clouds. We present results from the first ORACLES field deployment, which took place in September 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. Two NASA aircraft were flown with a suite of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and meteorological instruments for remote-sensing and in-situ observations. A strong correlation was observed between the aircraft-measured pollution indicators (carbon monoxide and aerosol properties) and atmospheric water vapor content, at all altitudes. Atmospheric reanalysis indicates that convective dynamics over the continent, near likely contribute to this elevated signal. Understanding the mechanisms by which water vapor covaries with plume strength is important to quantifying the magnitude of the aerosol direct and semi-direct effects in the region.

Pistone, Kristina↗

A Physically Based Algorithm for Non-Blackbody Correction of Cloud-Top Temperature and Application to Convection Study

Cloud-top temperature (CTT) is an important parameter for convective clouds and is usually different from the 11-micrometers brightness temperature due to non-blackbody effects. This paper presents an algorithm for estimating convective CTT by using simultaneous passive [Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)] and active [CloudSat 1 Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)] measurements of clouds to correct for the non-blackbody effect. To do this, a weighting function of the MODIS 11-micrometers band is explicitly calculated by feeding cloud hydrometer profiles from CloudSat and CALIPSO retrievals and temperature and humidity profiles based on ECMWF analyses into a radiation transfer model.Among 16 837 tropical deep convective clouds observed by CloudSat in 2008, the averaged effective emission level (EEL) of the 11-mm channel is located at optical depth; approximately 0.72, with a standard deviation of 0.3. The distance between the EEL and cloud-top height determined by CloudSat is shown to be related to a parameter called cloud-top fuzziness (CTF), defined as the vertical separation between 230 and 10 dBZ of CloudSat radar reflectivity. On the basis of these findings a relationship is then developed between the CTF and the difference between MODIS 11-micrometers brightness temperature and physical CTT, the latter being the non-blackbody correction of CTT. Correction of the non-blackbody effect of CTT is applied to analyze convective cloud-top buoyancy. With this correction, about 70% of the convective cores observed by CloudSat in the height range of 6-10 km have positive buoyancy near cloud top, meaning clouds are still growing vertically, although their final fate cannot be determined by snapshot observations.

Physical Algorithm↗

I’ve Looked at Clouds from Both Sides, Now: Viewpoints from Surface and Spaceborne Lidar Systems

Clouds play a critical role in the Earth’s climate system because they are inextricably linked to the hydrological cycle and radiation budget. Information about cloud height, thickness, occurrence, and amount are critical inputs for a host of numerical applications involving climate research. Therefore, it is important to have highly accurate and quantitative data records of cloud properties that span several years and geographic regions. Verification of even the most basic modeling processes demands long term and continuous observations of global cloud occurrence, if there is to be any confidence in their fidelity. For a number of reasons, however, it is impossible to gauge the complexities of clouds from a single source. Fundamentally, an array of remote sensing methods is needed in order to provide a complete picture. Within the Micropulse Lidar Network (MPLNET), we have developed a new algorithm to improve the quality of our cloud products. The largest impact of the changes to the cloud detection algorithm is evident with high clouds (those with cloud base > 5 km). Furthermore, polarized measurements enable us to determine the cloud thermodynamic phase. Naturally, the next step is to investigate how these improvements compare with observations from spaceborne lidars (e.g. CALIOP) which have a better (unobstructed) view of high clouds. Recent advances in remote sensing have revealed that cirrus clouds are the most common cloud genus observed in the atmosphere. Furthermore, cirrus skew highly towards relatively low cloud optical depths, as observed from both surface and spaceborne viewpoints. The radiative impacts of these findings are quite significant, considering the cumulative effect cirrus exhibit when compared to low clouds.

Jasper R Lewis↗

Effect of Clouds on the Atmospheric Solar Heating in the Tropical Western Pacific

The sea surface solar radiative fluxes have been retrieved from the radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The surface radiation data set covers the domain 40S-40N and 90E-170W and a period starting from January 1998. The retrieved surface radiation has been validated with the radiometric measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site on Manus Island in the equatorial western Pacific. Together with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) solar fluxes at the top of the atmosphere and the radiative transfer calculations of clear-sky fluxes, this surface radiation data set was used to study the impact of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere. It was found that clouds enhanced the atmospheric solar heating by approx. 21 watts per meter squared in the tropical western Pacific and the South China Sea, and the ratio of the cloud radiative forcing at the surface to that at the TOA was approximately 1.6.

Chou, Ming-Dah↗

Construction of a Matched Global Cloud and Radiance Product from LEO/GEO and EPIC Observations to Estimate Daytime Earth Radiation Budget from DSCOVR

With the launch of the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), new estimates of the daytime Earth radiation budget can be computed from a combination of measurements from the two Earth-observing sensors onboard the spacecraft, the Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR). Although these instruments can provide accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance measurements, they lack sufficient resolution to provide details on small-scale surface and cloud properties. Previous studies have shown that these properties have a strong influence on the anisotropy of the radiation at the TOA, and ignoring such effects can result in large TOA-flux errors. To overcome these effects, high-resolution scene identification is needed for accurate Earth radiation budget estimation. Selected radiance and cloud property data measured and derived from several low earth orbit (LEO, including NASA Terra and Aqua MODIS, NOAA AVHRR) and geosynchronous (GEO, including GOES (east and west), METEOSAT, INSAT-3D, MTSAT-2, and HIMAWARI-8) satellite imagers were collected to create hourly 5-km resolution global composites of data necessary to compute angular distribution models (ADM) for reflected shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation. The satellite data provide an independent source of radiance measurements and scene identification information necessary to construct ADMs that are used to determine the daytime Earth radiation budget. To optimize spatial matching between EPIC measurements and the high-resolution composite cloud properties, LEO/GEO retrievals within the EPIC fields of view (FOV) are convolved to the EPIC point spread function (PSF) in a similar manner to the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product. Examples of the merged LEO/GEO/EPIC product will be presented, describing the chosen radiance and cloud properties and details of how data from the multi-satellite measurements are selected.

Duda, David P.↗

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya↗

The Impact of Lidar Detection Sensitivity on Assessing Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects

Spaceborne lidar observations have great potential to provide accurate global estimates of the aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) in both clear and cloudy conditions. However, comparisons between observations from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite (CALIPSO) and multiple years of Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program’s ground-based Raman lidars (RL) show that CALIPSO does not detect all radiatively significant aerosol, i.e. aerosol that directly modifies the Earth’s radiation budget. We estimated that using CALIPSO observations results in an underestimate of the magnitude of the global mean aerosol DRE by up to 54%. The ARM RL datasets along with NASA Langley airborne high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data from multiple field campaigns are used to compute the detection sensitivity required to accurately resolve the aerosol DRE. This shows that a lidar with a backscatter coefficient detection sensitivity of about 1−2x10(exp -4)km(exp -1)sr(exp -1) at 532nm would resolve all the aerosol needed to derive the DRE to within 1%.

Tyler J. Thorsen↗

Far-infrared forbidden O III line emission from the galactic center

The forbidden O III 51.8 micron fine-structure line has been detected in Sgr A West. It appears that the emission arises from the same compact clouds within the central parsec of the Galaxy which are observed in forbidden Ne II. The line intensity is used to derive an effective temperature of 32,000-40,000 K for the radiation field that ionizes the clouds. An upper limit is also reported for the forbidden O III 88.4 micron fine-structure line in Sgr A West. From this upper limit, one can conclude that the average electron density outside the known ionized clouds and within 30 arcsec of the galactic center is less than 40 per cu cm.

Watson, D. M.↗

On the coupled nature of atmospheric phenomena

The interactions that take place in the stratosphere and the troposphere which are important to the maintenance of the chemical, dynamic, and thermal state and of the middle atmosphere, and which may be important in the determination of the state of the lower atmosphere are reviewed. Examples of these interactions due to either natural or anthropogenic processes are discussed, and promising areas for future research are indicated. Specific topics include: (1) coupling between temperature and chemistry via temperature dependent rate constants; (2) the effect of latitudinal temperature variations on zonal winds; (3) the effect of clouds, surface albedo, and the lower atmosphere on stratospheric chemistry due to the scattering and reflection of solar radiation; (4) the effect of trace constituents on thermal structure and thermal balance; (5) the effect of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate; (6) the effect of solar UV variability on stratospheric chemistry and temperature; and (7) the effect of trace constituents on stratospheric dynamics.

Callis, L. B.↗

Satellite Optical Remote Sensing of Clouds and Aerosols: From Particle Single-Scattering and Gaseous Absorption Through Radiative Transfer to Retrieval Products

Clouds and aerosols are fundamental regulators of Earth’s radiation budget and climate system, influencing both solar and terrestrial radiation through scattering, absorption, and emission processes. Accurate characterization of their physical and radiative properties from space requires a rigorous understanding of particle single-scattering, gaseous absorption, and radiative transfer in the atmosphere, as well as reliable inversion methods. This review synthesizes the physical foundations and algorithmic implementations of satellite-based passive optical remote sensing of clouds and aerosols, spanning the ultraviolet to thermal infrared spectral range. Beginning with electromagnetic scattering theory and state-of-the-art methods for computing single-scattering by nonspherical particles and computationally efficient methods for accounting for atmospheric absorption, we discuss the radiative transfer framework underpinning cloud and aerosol retrievals. The connection between single-scattering and multiple-scattering is rigorously formulated. We then summarize operational and research-grade retrieval techniques, including cloud masking and thermodynamic phase determination, CO₂ slicing for cloud-top pressure, the Nakajima-King shortwave bi-spectral, and infrared split-window approaches for cloud optical thickness and effective particle size, inversion algorithms for determining aerosol properties from multi-spectral and/or multi-angle radiometric and polarimetric measurements, and active-passive sensing synergy. Examples of the global cloud and aerosol climatologies are illustrated using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Furthermore, the unique strengths of active remote sensing techniques based on spaceborne lidar observations are briefly elaborated in the context of studying ice clouds composed of randomly and horizontally oriented ice crystals, which is a significant challenge for conventional passive remote sensing techniques. By connecting physical theory to practical retrievals, this review highlights both the maturity of current methodologies and the remaining challenges in reducing uncertainties in particle morphology, vertical structure, absorption, and aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on atmospheric remote sensing is briefly addressed.

Aerosols↗

The Correlation Between Arctic Sea Ice, Cloud Phase and Radiation Using A-Train Satellites

Climate warming has a stronger impact on Arctic climate and sea ice cover (SIC) decline than previously thought. Better understanding and characterization of the relationship between sea ice and clouds and the implications for surface radiation is key to improving our confidence in Arctic climate projections. Here we analyze the relationship between sea ice, cloud phase and surface radiation over the Arctic, defined as north of 60° N, using active- and passive-sensor satellite observations from three different datasets. We find that all datasets agree on the climatology of and seasonal variability in total and liquid-bearing (liquid and mixed-phase) cloud covers. Similarly, our results show a robust relationship between decreased SIC and increased liquid-bearing clouds in the lowest levels (below 3 km) for all seasons (strongest in winter) but summer, while increased SIC and ice clouds are positively correlated in two of the three datasets. A refined map correlation analysis indicates that the relationship between SIC and liquid-bearing clouds can change sign over the Bering, Barents and Laptev seas, likely because of intrusions of warm air from low latitudes during winter and spring. Finally, the increase in liquid clouds resulting from decreasing SIC is associated with enhanced radiative cooling at the surface. Our findings indicate that the newly formed liquid clouds reflect more shortwave (SW) radiation back to space compared to the surface, generating a cooling effect of the surface, while their downward longwave (LW) radiation is similar to the upward LW surface emission, which has a negligible radiative impact on the surface. This overall cooling effect should contribute to dampening future Arctic surface warming as SIC continues to decline.

Arctic climate↗

The Effect of Environmental Conditions on Tropical Deep Convective Systems Observed from the TRMM Satellite

This study uses measurements of radiation and cloud properties taken between January and August 1998 by three Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) instruments, the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) scanner, the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and the Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS), to evaluate the variations of tropical deep convective systems (DCS) with sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation. This study finds that DCS precipitation efficiency increases with SST at a rate of approx. 2%/K. Despite increasing rainfall efficiency, the cloud areal coverage rises with SST at a rate of about 7%/K in the warm tropical seas. There, the boundary layer moisture supply for deep convection and the moisture transported to the upper troposphere for cirrus-anvil cloud formation increase by approx. 6.3%/K and approx. 4.0%/K, respectively. The changes in cloud formation efficiency, along with the increased transport of moisture available for cloud formation, likely contribute to the large rate of increasing DCS areal coverage. Although no direct observations are available, the increase of cloud formation efficiency with rising SST is deduced indirectly from measurements of changes in the ratio of DCS ice water path and boundary layer water vapor amount with SST. Besides the cloud areal coverage, DCS cluster effective sizes also increase with precipitation. Furthermore, other cloud properties, such as cloud total water and ice water paths, increase with SST. These changes in DCS properties will produce a negative radiative feedback for the earth's climate system due to strong reflection of shortwave radiation by the DCS. These results significantly differ from some previous hypothesized dehydration scenarios for warmer climates, and have great potential in testing current cloud-system resolving models and convective parameterizations of general circulation models.

Lin, Bing↗

Intercomparison of observed cloud radiative forcing - A zonal and global perspective

Cloud radiative forcing determined by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) scene identification method and two regression methods is compared using identical data sources and the same analysis periods. Results confirm that from the global perspective the increased reflection of SW radiation induced by clouds is greater than outgoing longwave energy trapped by clouds. The estimates of net effect obtained from the three methods are found to be in good agreement (within 3.5 W/sq m). It is concluded that differences in published global mean values of net cloud radiative forcing are mainly due to different data sources and analysis periods. The best estimated annual mean among all previous estimates is considered to be the ERBE measurement (-17.3 W/sq m).

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

Cloud spatial structure during the FIRE MS IFO

The fractal properties of clouds observed during the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (MS IFO) and their effects on the large scale radiative properties of the atmosphere are examined. This involves three states: (1) analysis of LANDSAT Thematic Mapper (TM) cloud data to determine the scaling properties associated with various cloud types; (2) simulation of fractal clouds with realistic scaling properties; and (3) computation of mean radiative properties of fractal clouds as a function of their scaling properties. Thirty-three LANDSAT scenes were acquired as part of the FIRE Marine Stratocumulus IFO in July 1987. They exhibit a wide variety of stratocumulus structures. Analysis has so far focused upon the July 7 scene, in which the NASA ER-2, the BMO C130 and the NCAR Electra repeatedly gathered data across a stratocumulus-fair weather cumulus transition.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

Venus: The case for a wet origin and a runaway greenhouse

To one interested in atmospheric evolution, the most intriguing aspect of our neighboring planet Venus is its lack of water. Measurements made by Pioneer Venus and by Several Venera spacecraft indicate that the present water abundance in Venus' lower atmosphere is of the order of 20 to 200 ppmv, or 3 x 10( exp -6) to 3 x 10 (exp -5) of the amount of water in Earth's oceans. The exact depletion factor is uncertain, in part because of an unexplained vertical gradient in H2O concentration in the lowest 10 km of the venusian atmosphere, but the general scarcity of water is well established. The interesting question, then, is: Was venus deficient in water when it formed and, if not, where did its water go? The conclusion that Venus was originally wet is consistent with its large endowment of other volatiles and with the enhanced D/H ratio in the present atmosphere. The most likely mechanism by which Venus could have lost its water is by the development of a runaway or moist greenhouse atmosphere followed by photodissociation of water vapor and escape of hydrogen to space. Climate model calculations that neglect cloud albedo feedback predict the existence of two critical transitions in atmospheric behavior at high solar fluxes: (1) at a solar flux of approximately 1.1 times the value at Earth's orbit, S(o), the abundance of stratospheric water vapor increases dramatically, permitting rapid escape of hydrogen to space (termed a moist greenhouse) and (2) at a solar flux of approximately 1.4 S(o), the oceans vaporize entirely, creating a true runaway greenhouse. If cloudiness increases at high surface temperatures, as seems likely, and if the dominant effect of clouds is to cool the planet by reflecting incident solar radiation, the actual solar flux required to create moist or runaway conditions would be higher than the values quoted above. Early in solar system history, solar luminosity was about 25 percent to 30 percent less than today, putting the flux at Venus' orbit in the range of 1.34 S(o) to 1.43 S(o). Thus, it is possible that Venus had liquid water on its surface for several hundred million years following its formation. Paradoxically, this might have facilitated water loss by sequestering atmospheric CO2 in carbonate rocks and by providing an effective medium for surface oxidation.

Kasting, J. F.↗