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NASA NTRS2011

Weekly Solutions of Time-Variable Gravity from 1993 to 2010

The GRACE mission has been highly successful in determining the time-variable gravity field of the Earth, producing monthly or even more frequent solutions (cf. 10-day) solutions using both spherical harmonics and mascons. However the GRACE time series only commences in 2002 - 2003 and a gap of several years may occur in the series before a GRACE follow-on satellite is launched. Satellites tracked by SLR and DORIS have also been used to study time variations in the Earth's gravitational field. These include (most recently) the solutions of Cox and Chao (2002), Cheng et al. (2004, 2007) and Lemoine et al. (2007). In this paper we discuss the development of a new time series of low degree spherical harmonic fields based on the available SLR, DORIS and GPS data. We develop simultaneous solutions for both the geocenter and the low degree harmonics up to 5x5. The solutions integrate data from SLR geodetic satellites (e.g., Lageos1, Lageos2, Starlette, Stella, Ajisai, Larets, Westpac), altimetry satellites (TOPEX/Poseidon, Envisat, Jason-1, Jason-2), and satellites tracked solely by DORIS (e.g. SPOT2-5). We discuss some pertinent aspects of the satellite-specific modeling. We include altimeter crossovers in the weekly solutions where feasible and time permits. The resulting geocenter time series is compared with geophysical model predictions and other independently-derived solutions. Over the GRACE time period the fidelity and consistency with the GRACE solutions are presented.

Lemoine, F.↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2006

Topics include: Simulator for Testing Spacecraft Separation Devices; Apparatus for Hot Impact Testing of Material Specimens; Instrument for Aircraft-Icing and Cloud-Physics Measurements; Advances in Measurement of Skin Friction in Airflow; Improved Apparatus for Testing Monoball Bearings; High-Speed Laser Scanner Maps a Surface in Three Dimensions; Electro-Optical Imaging Fourier-Transform Spectrometer; Infrared Instrument for Detecting Hydrogen Fires; Modified Coaxial Probe Feeds for Layered Antennas; Detecting Negative Obstacles by Use of Radar; Cryogenic Pound Circuits for Cryogenic Sapphire Oscillators; PixelLearn; New Software for Predicting Charging of Spacecraft; Conversion Between Osculating and Mean Orbital Elements; Generating a 2D Representation of a Complex Data Structure; Making Activated Carbon by Wet Pressurized Pyrolysis; Composite Solid Electrolyte Containing Li+- Conducting Fibers; Electrically Conductive Anodized Aluminum Surfaces; Rapid-Chill Cryogenic Coaxial Direct-Acting Solenoid Valve; Variable-Tension-Cord Suspension/Vibration- Isolation System; Techniques for Connecting Superconducting Thin Films; Versatile Friction Stir Welding/Friction Plug Welding System; Thermal Spore Exposure Vessels; Enumerating Spore-Forming Bacteria Airborne with Particles; Miniature Oxidizer Ionizer for a Fuel Cell; Miniature Ion-Array Spectrometer; Promoted-Combustion Chamber with Induction Heating Coil; Miniature Ion-Mobility Spectrometer; Mixed-Salt/Ester Electrolytes for Low-Temperature Li+ Cells; Miniature Free-Space Electrostatic Ion Thrusters; Miniature Bipolar Electrostatic Ion Thruster; Holographic Plossl Retroreflectors; Miniature Electrostatic Ion Thruster With Magnet; Using Apex To Construct CPM-GOMS Models; Sequence Detection for PPM Optical Communication With ISI; Algorithm for Rapid Searching Among Star-Catalog Entries; Expectation-Based Control of Noise and Chaos; Radio Heating of Lunar Soil to Release Gases; Using Electrostriction to Manipulate Ullage in Microgravity; Equations for Scoring Rules When Data Are Missing; Insulating Material for Next-Generation Spacecraft; and Pseudorandom Switching for Adding Radar to the AFF Sensor.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Extension of Liouville Formalism to Postinstability Dynamics

A mathematical formalism has been developed for predicting the postinstability motions of a dynamic system governed by a system of nonlinear equations and subject to initial conditions. Previously, there was no general method for prediction and mathematical modeling of postinstability behaviors (e.g., chaos and turbulence) in such a system. The formalism of nonlinear dynamics does not afford means to discriminate between stable and unstable motions: an additional stability analysis is necessary for such discrimination. However, an additional stability analysis does not suggest any modifications of a mathematical model that would enable the model to describe postinstability motions efficiently. The most important type of instability that necessitates a postinstability description is associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. Such an instability leads to exponential growth of small errors in initial conditions or, equivalently, exponential divergence of neighboring trajectories. The development of the present formalism was undertaken in an effort to remove positive Lyapunov exponents. The means chosen to accomplish this is coupling of the governing dynamical equations with the corresponding Liouville equation that describes the evolution of the flow of error probability. The underlying idea is to suppress the divergences of different trajectories that correspond to different initial conditions, without affecting a target trajectory, which is one that starts with prescribed initial conditions.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2006

Granular Contact Forces: Proof of "Self-Ergodicity" by Generalizing Boltzmann's Stosszahlansatz and H Theorem

Ergodicity is proved for granular contact forces. To obtain this proof from first principles, this paper generalizes Boltzmann's stosszahlansatz (molecular chaos) so that it maintains the necessary correlations and symmetries of granular packing ensembles. Then it formally counts granular contact force states and thereby defines the proper analog of Boltzmann's H functional. This functional is used to prove that (essentially) all static granular packings must exist at maximum entropy with respect to their contact forces. Therefore, the propagation of granular contact forces through a packing is a truly ergodic process in the Boltzmannian sense, or better, it is self-ergodic. Self-ergodicity refers to the non-dynamic, internal relationships that exist between the layer-by-layer and column-by-column subspaces contained within the phase space locus of any particular granular packing microstate. The generalized H Theorem also produces a recursion equation that may be solved numerically to obtain the density of single particle states and hence the distribution of granular contact forces corresponding to the condition of self-ergodicity. The predictions of the theory are overwhelmingly validated by comparison to empirical data from discrete element modeling.

Metzger, Philip T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Cosmic Complexity

What explains the extraordinary complexity of the observed universe, on all scales from quarks to the accelerating universe? My favorite explanation (which I certainty did not invent) ls that the fundamental laws of physics produce natural instability, energy flows, and chaos. Some call the result the Life Force, some note that the Earth is a living system itself (Gaia, a "tough bitch" according to Margulis), and some conclude that the observed complexity requires a supernatural explanation (of which we have many). But my dad was a statistician (of dairy cows) and he told me about cells and genes and evolution and chance when I was very small. So a scientist must look for me explanation of how nature's laws and statistics brought us into conscious existence. And how is that seemll"!gly Improbable events are actually happening a!1 the time? Well, the physicists have countless examples of natural instability, in which energy is released to power change from simplicity to complexity. One of the most common to see is that cooling water vapor below the freezing point produces snowflakes, no two alike, and all complex and beautiful. We see it often so we are not amazed. But physlc!sts have observed so many kinds of these changes from one structure to another (we call them phase transitions) that the Nobel Prize in 1992 could be awarded for understanding the mathematics of their common features. Now for a few examples of how the laws of nature produce the instabilities that lead to our own existence. First, the Big Bang (what an insufficient name!) apparently came from an instability, in which the "false vacuum" eventually decayed into the ordinary vacuum we have today, plus the most fundamental particles we know, the quarks and leptons. So the universe as a whole started with an instability. Then, a great expansion and cooling happened, and the loose quarks, finding themselves unstable too, bound themselves together into today's less elementary particles like protons and neutrons, liberating a little energy and creating complexity. Then, the expanding universe cooled some more, and neutrons and protons, no longer kept apart by immense temperatures, found themselves unstable and formed helium nuclei. Then, a little more cooling, and atomic nuclei and electrons were no longer kept apart, and the universe became transparent. Then a little more cooling, and the next instability began: gravitation pulled matter together across cosmic distances to form stars and galaxies. This instability is described as a "negative heat capadty" in which extracting energy from a gravitating system makes it hotter -- clearly the 2nd law of thermodynamics does not apply here! (This is the physicist's part of the answer to e e cummings' question: what is the wonder that's keeping the stars apart?) Then, the next instability is that hydrogen and helium nuclei can fuse together to release energy and make stars burn for billions of years. And then at the end of the fuel source, stars become unstable and explode and liberate the chemical elements back into space. And because of that, on planets like Earth, sustained energy flows support the development of additional instabilities and all kinds of complex patterns. Gravitational instability pulls the densest materials into the core of the Earth, leaving a thin skin of water and air, and makes the interior churn incessantly as heat flows outwards. And the heat from the sun, received mostly near the equator and flowing towards the poles, supports the complex atmospheric and oceanic circulations. And because or that, the physical Earth is full of natural chemical laboratories, concentrating elements here, mixing them there, raising and lowering temperatures, ceaselessly experimenting with uncountable events where new instabilities can arise. At least one of them was the new experiment called life. Now that we know that there are at least as many planets as there are stars, it is hard to imagine that nature's ceasess experimentation would not be able to produce life elsewhere -- but we don't know for sure. And life went on to cause new Instabilities, constantly evolving, with living things in an extraordinary range of environments, changing the global environment, with boom-and-bust cycles. with predators for every kInd of prey, with criminals for every possible crime, with governments to prevent them, and instabilities of the governments themselves. One of the instabilities Is that humans demand new weapons and new products of all sort, leading to serious investments in science and technology. So the natural/human world of competition and combat is structured to lead to advanced weaponry and cell phones. So here we are In 2012, with people writing essays and wondering whether their descendents will be artificial life forms travelling back into space. And, pondering what are the origins of those forces of nature that give rise to everything. Verllnde has argued that gravitation, the one force that has so far resisted our efforts at a Quantum description, is not even a fundamental force, but is itself it a statistical force, like osmosis. What an amazing turn of events! But after all I've just said, I should not be surprised a bit.

Mather, John C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

From STEM to STEAM: Toward a Human-Centered Education

The 20th century was based on local linear engineering of complicated systems. We made cars, airplanes and chemical plants for example. The 21st century has opened a new basis for holistic non-linear design of complex systems, such as the Internet, air traffic management and nanotechnologies. Complexity, interconnectivity, interaction and communication are major attributes of our evolving society. But, more interestingly, we have started to understand that chaos theories may be more important than reductionism, to better understand and thrive on our planet. Systems need to be investigated and tested as wholes, which requires a cross-disciplinary approach and new conceptual principles and tools. Consequently, schools cannot continue to teach isolated disciplines based on simple reductionism. Science; Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) should be integrated together with the Arts1 to promote creativity together with rationalization, and move to STEAM (with an "A" for Arts). This new concept emphasizes the possibility of longer-term socio-technical futures instead of short-term financial predictions that currently lead to uncontrolled economies. Human-centered design (HCD) can contribute to improving STEAM education technologies, systems and practices. HCD not only provides tools and techniques to build useful and usable things, but also an integrated approach to learning by doing, expressing and critiquing, exploring possible futures, and understanding complex systems.

Boy, Guy A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty Quantification and Certification Prediction of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Configurations

The primary objective of this work was to develop and demonstrate a process for accurate and efficient uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic, transport aircraft. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics models of multiple low-boom configurations were investigated including the Lockheed Martin SEEB-ALR body of revolution, the NASA 69 Delta Wing, and the Lockheed Martin 1021-01 configuration. A nonintrusive polynomial chaos surrogate modeling approach was used for reduced computational cost of propagating mixed, inherent (aleatory) and model-form (epistemic) uncertainty from both the computation fluid dynamics model and the near-field to ground level propagation model. A methodology has also been introduced to quantify the plausibility of a design to pass a certification under uncertainty. Results of this study include the analysis of each of the three configurations of interest under inviscid and fully turbulent flow assumptions. A comparison of the uncertainty outputs and sensitivity analyses between the configurations is also given. The results of this study illustrate the flexibility and robustness of the developed framework as a tool for uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic aircraft.

West, Thomas K., IV↗
NASA NTRS2014

Proteins with Novel Structure, Function and Dynamics

Recently, a small enzyme that ligates two RNA fragments with the rate of 10(exp 6) above background was evolved in vitro (Seelig and Szostak, Nature 448:828‐831, 2007). This enzyme does not resemble any contemporary protein (Chao et al., Nature Chem. Biol. 9:81‐83, 2013). It consists of a dynamic, catalytic loop, a small, rigid core containing two zinc ions coordinated by neighboring amino acids, and two highly flexible tails that might be unimportant for protein function. In contrast to other proteins, this enzyme does not contain ordered secondary structure elements, such as alpha‐helix or beta‐sheet. The loop is kept together by just two interactions of a charged residue and a histidine with a zinc ion, which they coordinate on the opposite side of the loop. Such structure appears to be very fragile. Surprisingly, computer simulations indicate otherwise. As the coordinating, charged residue is mutated to alanine, another, nearby charged residue takes its place, thus keeping the structure nearly intact. If this residue is also substituted by alanine a salt bridge involving two other, charged residues on the opposite sides of the loop keeps the loop in place. These adjustments are facilitated by high flexibility of the protein. Computational predictions have been confirmed experimentally, as both mutants retain full activity and overall structure. These results challenge our notions about what is required for protein activity and about the relationship between protein dynamics, stability and robustness. We hypothesize that small, highly dynamic proteins could be both active and fault tolerant in ways that many other proteins are not, i.e. they can adjust to retain their structure and activity even if subjected to mutations in structurally critical regions. This opens the doors for designing proteins with novel functions, structures and dynamics that have not been yet considered.

Proteins↗
NASA NTRS2014

F Ring Core Stability: Corotation Resonance Plus Antiresonance

The decades-or-longer stability of the narrow F Ring core in a sea of orbital chaos appears to be due to an unusual combination of traditional corotation resonance and a novel kind of "antiresonance". At a series of specific locations in the F Ring region, apse precession between synodic encounters with Prometheus allows semimajor axis perturbations to promptly cancel before significant orbital period changes can occur. This cancellation fails for particles that encounter Prometheus when it is near its apoapse, especially during periods of antialignment of its apse with that of the F Ring. At these times, the strength of the semimajor axis perturbation is large (tens of km) and highly nonsinusoidal in encounter longitude, making it impossible to cancel promptly on a subsequent encounter and leading to chaotic orbital diffusion. Only particles that consistently encounter Prometheus away from its apoapse can use antiresonance to maintain stable orbits, implying that the true mean motion nF of the stable core must be defined by a corotational resonance of the form nF = nP(-kappa)P/m, where (nP, kappaP) are Prometheus' mean motion and epicycle frequency. To test this hypothesis we used the fact that Cassini RSS occultations only sporadically detect a "massive" F Ring core, composed of several-cm-and-larger particles. We regressed the inertial longitudes of 24 Cassini RSS (and VGR) detections and 43 nondetections to a common epoch, using a comb of candidate nP, and then folded them modulo the anticipated m-number of the corotational resonance (Prometheus m = 110 outer CER), to see if clustering appears. We find the "true F Ring core" is actually arranged in a series of short longitudinal arcs separated by nearly empty longitudes, orbiting at a well determined semimajor axis of 140222.4 km (from 2005-2012 at least). Small particles seen by imaging and stellar occultations spread quickly in azimuth and obscure this clumpy structure. Small chaotic variations in the mean motion and/or apse longitude of Prometheus quickly become manifest in the F Ring core, and we suggest that the core must adapt to these changes for the F Ring to maintain stability over timescales of decades and longer

Cassini RSS occultations↗
NASA NTRS2015

Uncertainty Quantification of Turbulence Model Closure Coefficients for Transonic Wall-Bounded Flows

The goal of this work was to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity of commonly used turbulence models in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes codes due to uncertainty in the values of closure coefficients for transonic, wall-bounded flows and to rank the contribution of each coefficient to uncertainty in various output flow quantities of interest. Specifically, uncertainty quantification of turbulence model closure coefficients was performed for transonic flow over an axisymmetric bump at zero degrees angle of attack and the RAE 2822 transonic airfoil at a lift coefficient of 0.744. Three turbulence models were considered: the Spalart-Allmaras Model, Wilcox (2006) k-w Model, and the Menter Shear-Stress Trans- port Model. The FUN3D code developed by NASA Langley Research Center was used as the flow solver. The uncertainty quantification analysis employed stochastic expansions based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos as an efficient means of uncertainty propagation. Several integrated and point-quantities are considered as uncertain outputs for both CFD problems. All closure coefficients were treated as epistemic uncertain variables represented with intervals. Sobol indices were used to rank the relative contributions of each closure coefficient to the total uncertainty in the output quantities of interest. This study identified a number of closure coefficients for each turbulence model for which more information will reduce the amount of uncertainty in the output significantly for transonic, wall-bounded flows.

Schaefer, John↗
NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Afterbody Radiative Heating Predictions for Earth Entry

The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.

West, Thomas K., IV↗
NASA NTRS2016

Light Diffraction by Large Amplitude Ultrasonic Waves in Liquids

Light diffraction from ultrasound, which can be used to investigate nonlinear acoustic phenomena in liquids, is reported for wave amplitudes larger than that typically reported in the literature. Large amplitude waves result in waveform distortion due to the nonlinearity of the medium that generates harmonics and produces asymmetries in the light diffraction pattern. For standing waves with amplitudes above a threshold value, subharmonics are generated in addition to the harmonics and produce additional diffraction orders of the incident light. With increasing drive amplitude above the threshold a cascade of period-doubling subharmonics are generated, terminating in a region characterized by a random, incoherent (chaotic) diffraction pattern. To explain the experimental results a toy model is introduced, which is derived from traveling wave solutions of the nonlinear wave equation corresponding to the fundamental and second harmonic standing waves. The toy model reduces the nonlinear partial differential equation to a mathematically more tractable nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The model predicts the experimentally observed cascade of period-doubling subharmonics terminating in chaos that occurs with increasing drive amplitudes above the threshold value. The calculated threshold amplitude is consistent with the value estimated from the experimental data.

Adler, Laszlo↗
NASA NTRS2017

Aeroelastic Uncertainty Quantification Studies Using the S4T Wind Tunnel Model

This paper originates from the joint efforts of an aeroelastic study team in the Applied Vehicle Technology Panel from NATO Science and Technology Organization, with the Task Group number AVT-191, titled "Application of Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Military Vehicle Design." We present aeroelastic uncertainty quantification studies using the SemiSpan Supersonic Transport wind tunnel model at the NASA Langley Research Center. The aeroelastic study team decided treat both structural and aerodynamic input parameters as uncertain and represent them as samples drawn from statistical distributions, propagating them through aeroelastic analysis frameworks. Uncertainty quantification processes require many function evaluations to asses the impact of variations in numerous parameters on the vehicle characteristics, rapidly increasing the computational time requirement relative to that required to assess a system deterministically. The increased computational time is particularly prohibitive if high-fidelity analyses are employed. As a remedy, the Istanbul Technical University team employed an Euler solver in an aeroelastic analysis framework, and implemented reduced order modeling with Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition to perform the uncertainty propagation. The NASA team chose to reduce the prohibitive computational time by employing linear solution processes. The NASA team also focused on determining input sample distributions.

Nikbay, Melike↗
NASA NTRS2017

Time and Measurement Days

Questions in data analysis involving the concepts of time and measurement are often pushed into the background or reserved for a philosophical discussion. Some examples are: a) Is causality a consequence of the laws of physics, or can the arrow of time be reversed? b) Can we determine the arrow of time of an event? c) Do we need the continuum hypothesis for the underlying function in any measurement process? d) Can we say anything about the analyticity of the underlying process of an event? e) Would it be valid to model a non-analytical process as function of time? f) What are the implications of all these questions for classical Fourier techniques? However, in the age of big data gathered either from space missions supplying ultra-precise long time series, or e.g. LIGO data from the ground, the moment to bring these questions to the foreground seems arrived. The limitations of our understanding of some fundamental processes is emphasized by the lack of solution for problems open for more than 2 decades, such as the non-detection of solar g-modes, or the modal identification of main sequence stellar pulsators like delta Scuti stars. Flicker noise or 1/f noise, for example, attributed in solar-like stars to granulation, is analyzed mostly only to apply noise reduction techniques, neither considering the classical problem of 1/f noise that was introduced a 100 years ago, nor taking into account ergodic or non-ergodic solutions that make inapplicable spectral analysis techniques in practice. This topic was discussed by Nicholas W. Watkins during the ITISE meeting held in Granada in 2016. There he presented preliminary results of his research on Mandelbrot's related work. We reproduce here his quotation of Mandelbrot (1999) "There is a sharp contrast between a highly anomalous ("non-white") noise that proceeds in ordinary clock time and a noise whose principal anomaly is that it is restricted to fractal time", suggesting a connection with the above proposed topics that could be phrased as the following additional questions:a) Is self-organized criticality (SOC) frequent in astrophysical phenomena? b) Could all fractals in nature be considered stochastic? c) Could we establish mathematical/physical relationships between chaotic and fractal behaviors in time series? d) Could the differences between fractals and chaos in terms of analyticity be used to understand the residuals of the fitting of stellar light curves? In this meeting we would like to approximate these problems from a holistic and multidisciplinary perspective, taking into account not only technical issues but also the deeper implications. In particular the concept of connectivity (introduced in Pascual-Granado et al. A&A, 2015) could be used to implement, within the framework of ARMA processes, an "arrow of time" (see attached document), and so studying the possible implications in the concept of time as envisaged by Watkins.

data analysis↗
NASA NTRS2017

Evaluating Process Effectiveness to Reduce Risk

It is well documented that government agencies do not have the same incentive as the private sector to focus on process effectiveness and continual improvement of those processes. It is also well documented whenever government agencies fail to deliver efficient, effective, consistent, and fair services to the citizens. In spite of the various "reinventing government" and "effectiveness initiatives" of the past decades, and in spite of the efforts on the part of many agencies to improve, government in general still lags behind industry in creating a culture of effective processes and systems. While the tragic events that unfolded recently in Flint, Michigan, teach us that running government "like a business" does not always take the needs of the citizenry into account, there are many lessons and techniques from the private sector that government agencies can use to improve. The incentive to improve, while mandated by various administrations1, needs to come from within the workforce, in order to effectively take root. The best, most effective incentive is to reduce, control or eliminate risk. Government agencies face some of the same risks as the private sector, while some are unique. While ISO 310002 has been around since 2009, risk has taken on increased visibility within the private sector with the advent of the emphasis on risk-based thinking in ISO 9001:20153. The relationship between risk-based thinking and effective processes is simple and direct. Those processes that are well thought out and standardized (i.e. Plan-Do-Check-Act), will have taken into account the applicable policy, statutory, regulatory, safety, quality and technical parameters, which may not occur to someone performing the process with minimal experience or training; and thus protect the employees, the public and the agency from statutory and regulatory violations; delay in providing services; non-delivery of services; harm to public or employee safety and health; cost overruns; breaches in security; loss of confidence in government; failure of publicly funded projects; damage to the environment; ethics violations, and the list goes on; with local, national and even international consequences. The Plan-Do-Check-Act process, also known as the "process approach" can be used at any time to establish and standardize a process, and it can also be used to check periodically for "process creep" (i.e., informal, unauthorized changes that have occurred over time), any necessary updates and improvements. While ISO 9001 compliance is not mandated for all government agencies, if interpreted correctly, it can be useful in establishing a framework and implementing effective management systems and processes.4 Another method that can be used to evaluate effectiveness is the scorecard definitions in Mallory's Process Management Standard5 as a basis for evaluating work on the process level on effective, and continuously improved and improving processes. With processes on the lower end of the scale, agencies are vulnerable to a great many risks, with employees and managers making up many of the rules as they go, leading to the above listed negative results. Without clear guidance for nominal operations, off-nominal situations can, and do, increase the likelihood of chaos. In an increasingly technical environment, with inter-agency communication and collaboration becoming the norm, agencies need to come to grips with the fact that processes can become rapidly outdated, and that the technical community should take on an increased role in the maturation of the agency's processes. Industry has long known that effective processes are also efficient, and process improvement methods such as Kaizen, Lean, Six Sigma, 5S, and mistake proofing lead to increased productivity, improved quality, and decreased cost. Again, government agencies have different concerns, but inefficiencies and mistakes can have dire and wide reaching consequences for the public that they serve. While no one goes to work planning to cause harm, it is up to agencies to establish upper level systems, which make establishment and compliance with processes possible. Again, Mallory provides us with a Systems Management Standard6, similar to the Process Management Standard, with a scale of 0-5 for systems effectiveness and maturity. Deming determined that "eighty-five percent of the reasons for failure are deficiencies in the systems and process rather than the employee. The role of management is to change the process rather than badgering individual employees to do better." 7 It is not just the working level employees who need effective processes, but the mid-and upper level managers as well. A disciplined management culture sets the tone for the employees, aids both routine and off-nominal decision-making, and incorporates risk -based thinking into the systems and processes as a matter of normal activity. Figure 1, illustrates the relationship between ineffective and effective processes and risk, through the use of the "stoplight" colors that are commonly used to show serious situations (red), situations which may be improving or deteriorating depending on trends (yellow), and situations that are under control and continuously improved (green).

Shepherd, Christena C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy: A Comprehensive Tutorial

Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy are two algorithms for determining the regularity of series of data based on the existence of patterns. Despite their similarities, the theoretical ideas behind those techniques are different but usually ignored. This paper aims to be a complete guideline of the theory and application of the algorithms, intended to explain their characteristics in detail to researchers from different fields. While initially developed for physiological applications, both algorithms have been used in other fields such as medicine, telecommunications, economics or Earth sciences. In this paper, we explain the theoretical aspects involving Information Theory and Chaos Theory, provide simple source codes for their computation, and illustrate the techniques with a step by step example of how to use the algorithms properly. This paper is not intended to be an exhaustive review of all previous applications of the algorithms but rather a comprehensive tutorial where no previous knowledge isrequired to understand the methodology.

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso↗
NASA NTRS2017

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor↗
NASA NTRS2019

Inflight Parachute Measurement Challenge

The Purpose of the Inflight Parachute Measurement Challenge is to solicit potential measurement solutions that can result in successful parachute loading assumption validation, along with validation of Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI) simulations. A parachute system contains many components which see various loading conditions including tension and aerodynamic pressure forces. While measurements can be made in wind tunnels, significant limitations exist as compared to flight testing which include scaling, dynamic pressure time history, and cluster behavior. Traditional flight test instrumentation is difficult due the flexible nature of parachute components, packing requirements, and high forces and chaos during deployment. The Objectives of this challenge are to (1) describe the anatomy and behavior of parachute systems, (2) identify measurements of particular interest to the parachute design and analysis community, (3) identify additional uses of measurements such as FSI validation.

Daum, Jared↗