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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fabrication of Large-Area Metal-on-Carbon Catalytic Condensers for Programmable Catalysis

Catalytic condensers stabilize charge on either side of a high-k dielectric film to modulate the electronic states of a catalytic layer for the electronic control of surface reactions. Here, carbon sputtering provided for fast, large-scale fabrication of metal–carbon catalytic condensers required for industrial application. Carbon films were sputtered on HfO 2 dielectric/p-type Si with different thicknesses (1, 3, 6, and 10 nm), and the enhancement of conductance and capacitance of carbon films was observed upon increasing the carbon thickness following thermal treatment at 400 °C. After Pt deposition on the carbon films, the Pt catalytic condenser exhibited a high capacitance of ∼210 nF/cm 2 that was maintained at a frequency ∼1000 Hz, satisfying the requirement for a dynamic catalyst to implement catalytic resonance. Temperature-programmed desorption of carbon monoxide yielded CO desorption peaks that shifted in temperature with the varying potential applied to the condenser (−6 or +6 V), indicating a shift in the binding energy of carbon monoxide on the Pt condenser surface. A substantial increase in capacitance (∼2000 nF/cm 2 ) of the Pt-on-carbon devices was observed at elevated temperatures of 400 °C that can modulate ∼10% of charge per metal atom when 10 V potential was applied. A large catalytic condenser of 42 cm 2 area Pt/C/HfO 2 /Si exhibited a high capacitance of 9393 nF with a low leakage current/capacitive current ratio (<0.1), demonstrating the practicality and versatility of the facile, large-scale fabrication method for metal–carbon catalytic condensers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Evaluation of Carbon Hosts for High-Energy Rechargeable Lithium-Metal Batteries

Rechargeable lithium batteries (RLBs) have attracted wide attention for achieving high energy and low cost, but the poor stability of the Li anode has remained as a large challenge. In the last several years, great efforts have been made to develop carbon anode structures for RLB applications. A wide range of carbon structures as well as many chemical modification strategies have been investigated to improve the Coulombic efficiency and extend the cycle life of the anodes or the cells. However, currently there is no clear conclusion on key factors that determine the performance of such the types of carbon structures due to the wide range of experimental conditions used in such studies. In this study, we systematically evaluated and compared the electrochemical properties of representative carbon anode materials as well as chemically functionalized carbon materials in different electrolytes. We have found that chemical functionalization, metallic loading, and the types of micro or nano-structures all have an effect on Li deposition/stripping process, but by far the most critical factor is the nature of the electrolytes. All carbon materials produced poor Coulombic efficiency and cycle life in conventional carbonate or ether-based electrolytes. However, when a Li metal compatible is used, the average Coulombic efficiency of Li metal deposition on all carbon structures is increased to 99% or higher. This study provides critical lessons on the directions for carbon anodes for RLBs. Based on these findings, we constructed Li metal coin cells using prelithiated hard carbon, LiNi0.6Mn0.2Co0.2O2 (NMC622) cathode, and compatible electrolyte and tested the cells under conditions of lean electrolyte, lean Li metal and high cathode loading required for more than 300 Wh kg-1 specific energy. More than 200 stable cycles were demonstrated with over 80% capacity retention. Furthermore, the existing challenges and potential approaches have been discussed to further extend the cyclability of lithium-metal batteries under practical conditions.

Liu, Yao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phenolic Resin Derived Hard Carbon Anode for Sodium-Ion Batteries: A Review

Sodium-ion batteries are complementary to lithium-ion batteries for grid-scale energy storage applications due to lower cost, safety, and potential for sustainable supply chains. The past decade has witnessed enormous research efforts in developing hard carbon anode materials for sodium-ion batteries. Phenolic resins have received significant attention as hard carbon precursors due to their high carbon yield, highly cross-linked structure, low cost, mature technology, and excellent electrochemical performance of corresponding hard carbon anode. This Review exclusively highlights the state-of-the-art preparation of hard carbon from phenolic resins, and the electrochemical performance in sodium-ion batteries. Cross-linked resins are prepared from three phenolic monomers (phenol, resorcinol, and phloroglucinol) to produce hard carbon. The effects of carbonization temperature on the microstructure, and electrochemical properties of hard carbon have been summarized here. Hard carbon formation, and sodium storage mechanisms have been briefly outlined. Finally, this Review provides an industrial perspective on hard carbon production at scale.

aromatic compounds↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Iron mineral dissolution releases iron and associated organic carbon during permafrost thaw

It has been shown that reactive soil minerals, specifically iron(III) (oxyhydr)oxides, can trap organic carbon in soils overlying intact permafrost, and may limit carbon mobilization and degradation as it is observed in other environments. However, the use of iron(III)-bearing minerals as terminal electron acceptors in permafrost environments, and thus their stability and capacity to prevent carbon mobilization during permafrost thaw, is poorly understood. We have followed the dynamic interactions between iron and carbon using a space-for-time approach across a thaw gradient in Abisko (Sweden), where wetlands are expanding rapidly due to permafrost thaw. We show through bulk (selective extractions, EXAFS) and nanoscale analysis (correlative SEM and nanoSIMS) that organic carbon is bound to reactive Fe primarily in the transition between organic and mineral horizons in palsa underlain by intact permafrost (41.8 ±10.8 mg carbon per g soil, 9.9 to 14.8% of total soil organic carbon). During permafrost thaw, water-logging and O 2 limitation lead to reducing conditions and an increase in abundance of Fe(III)-reducing bacteria which favor mineral dissolution and drive mobilization of both iron and carbon along the thaw gradient. By providing a terminal electron acceptor, this rusty carbon sink is effectively destroyed along the thaw gradient and cannot prevent carbon release with thaw.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nutrients cause consolidation of soil carbon flux to small proportion of bacterial community

Nutrient amendment diminished bacterial functional diversity, consolidating carbon flow through fewer bacterial taxa. Here, we show strong differences in the bacterial taxa responsible for respiration from four ecosystems, indicating the potential for taxon-specific control over soil carbon cycling. Trends in functional diversity, defined as the richness of bacteria contributing to carbon flux and their equitability of carbon use, paralleled trends in taxonomic diversity although functional diversity was lower overall. Among genera common to all ecosystems, Bradyrhizobium, the Acidobacteria genus RB41, and Streptomyces together composed 45–57% of carbon flow through bacterial productivity and respiration. Bacteria that utilized the most carbon amendment (glucose) were also those that utilized the most native soil carbon, suggesting that the behavior of key soil taxa may influence carbon balance. Mapping carbon flow through different microbial taxa as demonstrated here is crucial in developing taxon-sensitive soil carbon models that may reduce the uncertainty in climate change projections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Abstract Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO2. This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10 000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long-lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology developers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Salt marsh soil organic carbon is regulated by drivers of microbial activity

Abstract Soil organic carbon is the foundation for soil health and a livable climate. Organic carbon is concentrated in coastal wetland soils, but dynamics that govern carbon persistence in coastal ecosystems remain incompletely understood. Whether microbial activity results in a gain or loss of carbon depends on environmental conditions that regulate microbial community attributes. We sought to identify which drivers of microbial activity have the greatest impact on organic carbon content in salt marsh soils. To address this question, we used the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses) statement to compile data on soil and ecosystem characteristics from 50 studies of over 60 salt marshes located around the world. We conducted a meta-analysis with structural equation modeling, including mediation and moderation analyses, to identify environmental drivers of salt marsh soil organic carbon content. High salinity, pH, nitrogen, and phosphorus were associated with increased microbial biomass carbon and soil organic carbon. Correlations between microbial biomass and organic carbon were strengthened by soil salinity and nitrogen, and weakened by soil water content. These results suggest that environmental conditions that control microbial growth and activity have potential to preserve or degrade organic carbon in salt marsh soils.

Erb, Hailey (ORCID:0000000337295634)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil Carbon Saturation: What Do We Really Know?

Managing soils to increase organic carbon storage presents a potential opportunity to mitigate and adapt to global change challenges, while providing numerous co-benefits and ecosystem services. However, soils differ widely in their potential for carbon sequestration, and knowledge of biophysical limits to carbon accumulation may aid in informing priority regions. Consequently, there is great interest in assessing whether soils exhibit a maximum capacity for storing organic carbon, particularly within organo–mineral associations given the finite nature of reactive minerals in a soil. While the concept of soil carbon saturation has existed for over 25 years, recent studies have argued for and against its importance. Here, we summarize the conceptual understanding of soil carbon saturation at both micro- and macro-scales, define key terminology, and address common concerns and misconceptions. We review methods used to quantify soil carbon saturation, highlighting the theory and potential caveats of each approach. Critically, we explore the utility of the principles of soil carbon saturation for informing carbon accumulation, vulnerability to loss, and representations in process-based models. We highlight key knowledge gaps and propose next steps for furthering our mechanistic understanding of soil carbon saturation and its implications for soil management.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

FWP FEW0223: "Advanced Manufactured Carbonate Materials for Algal Biomass Production: Joint LLNL SNL Program" (Final Report)

The ability to easily and cheaply transport carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from coal-fired power plants equipped with capture facilities to multiple, potentially distant utilization sites of widely varying scales will enable wider use of CO 2 captured from flue gas. In the case of algal biomass cultivation, delivery of CO 2 in the form of carbonate-based materials may provide a more efficient and economical method of inorganic carbon delivery than CO 2 sparging, reducing the cost of algae cultivation and increasing the value of carbon capture. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has developed advanced manufactured materials that are well-suited for carbon capture, storage, transport, and delivery. These materials consist of aqueous sodium carbonate, which captures CO 2 as sodium bicarbonate, extruded or 3D printed in a CO 2 permeable polymer to increase the surface area and improve capture kinetics. By encapsulating carbonate solutions, LLNL has demonstrated order-of-magnitude enhancements in carbon capture rates compared with liquid carbonates, enabling the use of these (otherwise kinetically-limited) inexpensive, environmentally-benign solvents for carbon capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electrochemical Conversion of Carbon Dioxide to Alcohols

The vast quantities of fossil fuels used by our society have led to unprecedented atmospheric carbon dioxide levels with widespread climate impacts. Electrochemical conversion of carbon dioxide to valuable fuels and chemicals is a promising technology to utilize carbon dioxide emitted from coal-fired power plants. In this project, the team developed an integrated electrolyzer system that takes the flue gas from the power plant and produce C2/C3 alcohols (i.e., ethanol and n-propanol) through a two-stage electrolysis process. The pretreated carbon dioxide from the flue gas is converted into carbon monoxide by the first stage carbon dioxide electrolysis, followed by the second stage where the produced carbon monoxide is further converted into liquid C2/C3 alcohols with a high selectivity and energy efficiency. Impact and anticipated fate of flue gas contaminants, such as sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, on the proposed technology was also evaluated. Furthermore, a full analysis of economics and life-cycle of the carbon dioxide electrolysis technology for carbon dioxide emissions mitigation from coal-fired power plants was conducted to evaluate the economic feasibility and carbon dioxide mitigation potential of the proposed technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon Electrodes from Powder River Basin Coal Development of Competitive Supercapacitor Electrodes of Diverse Compositions from Coal Extract

Recent demand for coal as a thermal energy source has decreased significantly and will likely continue to decrease as renewable sources of energy become more available and environmental concern and cost from burning coal makes it more costly than renewables. Given that Powder River Basin (PRB) coal in Wyoming has relatively low thermal energy, it is critical for Wyoming to employ coal in other capacities at the current energy transition period in history. Among many potential non-thermal applications, PRB coal can be utilized for membrane and electrode applications through the formation of carbon fibers. Coal-derived membranes can become low-cost, conductive membranes for use in electrodialysis separation processes. Carbon fiber derived electrodes have been shown be a cost-effective alternative to typical electrode materials that can meet or exceed the performance of current carbon electrode materials. In this talk, we demonstrate the manufacture of supercapacitor electrodes from Powder River Basin (PRB) coal-derived precursors. Specifically, PRB coal was treated in cheap solvents, partitioned into liquid extract and solid residue. An electropinning process has been developed that can convert either the liquid extract or the solid residue into carbon fiber mats. The electrospinning process is versatile with many tunable process parameters to achieve desirable physiochemical properties. For example, the coal residue can be manipulated by additional heat treatment, or by adding binders, salts, or surfactants to create a solution that can be electrospun into advanced carbon electrodes with desirable structural and surface properties. Similarly, some of the liquid extract (tar fraction) can be subsequently reacted with toluene diisocyanate to create resinous coal-derived polyurethane (PUs) as a spinnable ink. Carbon nanofiber mats made from our proprietary electrospinning process were further carbonized at temperature ranging from 700°C to 900°C before they are used as electrodes in supercapacitors. Galvanostatic charge-discharge (GCD) results show that the best performing PU fiber mats can deliver a specific capacitance of 604 F g -1 at the current density of 1 A g -1 . A carbon fiber mat from a different solvent extraction residue also delivered the specific capacitance of 508 F g -1 . These specific capacitance values are comparable to or better than commercial activated carbons, demonstrating the viability of manufacturing carbon nanofiber electrodes from coal without the use of a commercial polymer as binder in the spinning ink.

Cincotta, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO 2 . This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10,000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO 2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology develo pers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Novel Sintered Carbon-Ore Building Materials

The main objective for this project was to develop value-added products from carbon-ore leading to commercialization of a carbon-based product. These carbon-based products (LIG2 products) are produced using the sintered carbon-ore building materials (SCBM) technology and have carbon contents greater than 70 wt.% carbon with greater than 51wt.% of the carbon coming from carbon-ore. The project team produced LIG2 bricks at a rate of five bricks per day and characterized the material properties of the bricks. These products can then be used in fabrication of a carbon-based building. A technical and economic analysis (TEA), cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis (LCA), technology gap analysis, and conceptual design were also completed for the LIG2 carbon-ore brick manufacturing process.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based data products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1 (40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low or sinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Friedlingstein, Pierre (ORCID:0000000333094739)↗