Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “carbon dynamics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of the Graft Length on Nanocomposite Structure and Interfacial Dynamics

Both the dispersion state of nanoparticles (NPs) within polymer nanocomposites (PNCs) and the dynamical state of the polymer altered by the presence of the NP/polymer interfaces have a strong impact on the macroscopic properties of PNCs. In particular, mechanical properties are strongly affected by percolation of hard phases, which may be NP networks, dynamically modified polymer regions, or combinations of both. In this article, the impact on dispersion and dynamics of surface modification of the NPs by short monomethoxysilanes with eight carbons in the alkyl part (C 8 ) is studied. As a function of grafting density and particle content, polymer dynamics is followed by broadband dielectric spectroscopy and analyzed by an interfacial layer model, whereas the particle dispersion is investigated by small-angle X-ray scattering and analyzed by reverse Monte Carlo simulations. NP dispersions are found to be destabilized only at the highest grafting. The interfacial layer formalism allows the clear identification of the volume fraction of interfacial polymer, with its characteristic time. The strongest dynamical slow-down in the polymer is found for unmodified NPs, while grafting weakens this effect progressively. The combination of all three techniques enables a unique measurement of the true thickness of the interfacial layer, which is ca. 5 nm. Finally, the comparison between longer (C 18 ) and shorter (C 8 ) grafts provides unprecedented insight into the efficacy and tunability of surface modification. It is shown that C 8 -grafting allows for a more progressive tuning, which goes beyond a pure mass effect.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multi-scale dynamic modeling and validation of radial flow fixed bed contactors for post-combustion CO 2 capture using bench scale and pilot plant data

Here, in this work, a multi-scale model of a radial flow fixed bed contactor packed with a carbon sorbent is developed and validated with laboratory-scale and pilot plant scale dynamic data. For the lab scale system, the model results were compared with low, medium and high gas and sweep flowrates, yielding root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.80, 0.63, 0.96 CO 2 mol%, respectively, for the outlet CO 2 concentration profile considering the entire A-D cycle. For the bed outer temperature profile, maximum RMSE was found to be 5.5 °C considering all flowrates and entire A-D cycles. An experimental campaign was developed and applied to a pilot plant at Technology Center Mongstad (TCM), Norway. Approaches were developed for pre-processing of data including consideration of the effect of gas mixing, measurement delay, and determination of cyclic steady-state conditions. Considering profiles during A-D cycles for all test runs, it was found that the maximum RMSE for pressure drop, temperature for the outer section of the bed, temperature for the middle section of the bed, and outlet CO 2 concentration profile remained less than 1.5 mbar, 3.5 °C, 2.8 °C, and 1.3 CO 2 mol%, respectively. The validated model was used to perform sensitivity studies on several key design operating variables for the adsorption-desorption cycle. It was found that the flow rate and concentration of flue gas have dominant nonlinear effects on the breakthrough time while the desorption time was strongly affected by the sweep gas flowrate for the specific sorbent being evaluated in this study.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane soil efflux (soil respiration) in a Pinus palustris root exclusion in Georgetown, SC

This dataset contains processed data from a combination of survey flux chambers and long-term automated flux chambers. Soil flux measurements were conducted from June 2023 through December 2025 in a mature longleaf pine forest in Georgetown, SC. Soil respiration measurements were conducted approximately biweekly for two and a half years, before and after a root exclusion that took place on May 5, 2024. Processed, QAQC’d data for the treatment (root exclusion) and control (roots intact) before and after the root exclusion can be found in the file: 1_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB2_QAQC_Survey_Data_20260223.csv. Two multiday deployments were also conducted prior to the root exclusion using long-term automated chambers to continuously monitor greenhouse gas soil efflux. Processed, QAQC’d data for both long-term deployments can be found in the file: 2_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB2_QAQC_Longterm_Data_20260209.csv. Raw and working data files (.json, .81x, & .82z format) from LI-COR equipment are included for reference and can be accessed using SoilFluxPro software. CSV metadata files describe the raw data and modifications made using SoilFluxPro v5 and Matlab R2024b, as well as formatting and units for processed CSVs. Matlab code is included for reading in the processed CSVs, with sample figures comparing treatment and control. This research was performed as part of the project: “Improving models of stand and watershed carbon and water fluxes with more accurate representations of soil-plant-water dynamics in southern pine ecosystems”, which examines in part the effects hydraulic redistribution on soil efflux of carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, as well as soil moisture and temperature in a southern pine ecosystem with sandy soils and high water table.

CARBON DIOXIDE FLUX↗
DOE OSTI2026

Carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane soil efflux (soil respiration) in a Pinus palustris restoration site in Georgetown, SC

This dataset contains processed data from a combination of survey flux chambers and long-term automated flux chambers. Biweekly soil flux measurements were conducted from June 2023 through December 2025 at a longleaf pine restoration site in Georgetown, SC. Processed, QAQC’d data can be found in the file: 1_DATA_ESS_DOE_HR_RS_HB3_QAQC_Survey_Data_20260223.csv. Raw and working data files (.json, & .81x format) from LI-COR equipment are included for reference and can be accessed using SoilFluxPro software. CSV metadata files describe the raw data and modifications made using SoilFluxPro v5 and Matlab R2024b, as well as formatting and units for processed CSVs. Matlab code is included for reading in the processed CSVs. This research was performed as part of the project: “Improving models of stand and watershed carbon and water fluxes with more accurate representations of soil-plant-water dynamics in southern pine ecosystems”, which examines in part the effects hydraulic redistribution on soil efflux of carbon dioxide, water vapor and methane, as well as soil moisture and temperature in a southern pine ecosystem with sandy soils and high water table.

CARBON DIOXIDE FLUX↗
DOE OSTI2024

Label-free functional analysis of root-associated microbes with dynamic quantitative oblique back-illumination microscopy

The increasing global demand for food, coupled with concerns about the environmental impact of synthetic fertilizers, underscores the urgency of developing sustainable agricultural practices. Nitrogen-fixing bacteria, known as diazotrophs, offer a potential solution by converting atmospheric nitrogen into bioavailable forms, reducing the reliance on synthetic fertilizers. However, a deeper understanding of their interactions with plants and other microbes is needed. In this study, we introduce a recently developed label-free 3D quantitative phase imaging technology called dynamic quantitative oblique back-illumination microscopy (DqOBM) to assess the functional dynamic activity of diazotrophs in vitro and in situ. Our experiments involved three different diazotrophs (Sinorhizobium meliloti, Azotobacter vinelandii, and Rahnella aquatilis) cultured on media with amendments of carbon and nitrogen sources. Over 5 days, we observed increased dynamics in nutrient-amended media. These results suggest that the observed bacterial dynamics correlate with their metabolic activity. Furthermore, we applied qOBM to visualize microbial dynamics within the root cap and elongation zone of Arabidopsis thaliana primary roots. This allowed us to identify distinct areas of microbial infiltration in plant roots without the need for fluorescent markers. Our findings demonstrate that DqOBM can effectively characterize microbial dynamics and provide insights into plant-microbe interactions in situ, offering a valuable tool for advancing our understanding of sustainable agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal 4D Whole-cell Modeling of a Minimal Autotroph Reveals Central Carbon Metabolism Regulated Locally by Protein Megacomplexes via Post-translational Modifications under Light Disturbance

Photosynthetic microorganisms rely on multiple pathways in central carbon metabolism to adapt to fluctuating light and energy availability across diel cycles. Mechanistic insight into the regulatory dynamics of this adaptation requires integrating processes spanning disparate timescales, from rapid redox-dependent post-translational modifications (PTMs) to slower changes in protein expression and metabolic pathway usage. To address this complexity beyond genome-based inference and traditional modeling, we develop a whole-cell four-dimensional (3D + time) model of the marine cyanobacterium Prochlorococcus marinus MED4 that explicitly represents the spatial organization of enzymatic and molecular processes in central carbon metabolism under light perturbation. We employ a perturbation-based research design to experimentally generate time-series, multi-omics measurements that provide molecular descriptors and cryo-ET derived 3D segmented volumes as constraints for this dynamic 4D framework. The integration of experiments and modeling across defined light regimes enables quantitative validation of system-level responses and forecasting under distinct light disturbances. We test the hypothesis that light-dependent redox PTMs regulating the structural assembly of a protein megacomplex, the “dark complex,” modulate metabolic flux at a conserved regulatory node of the Calvin–Benson cycle (CBC) in cyanobacteria. Our model shows that subcellular spatial organization buffers rapid light-induced changes in thylakoid reaction rates, which are followed by redox-PTM-mediated sequestration or release of CBC enzymes in the dark complex, ultimately impacting carbon fixation dynamics within carboxysomes. Comparison with an equivalently parameterized well-mixed stochastic model demonstrates that post-translational regulation not only buffers transcriptional noise and diffusion-driven fluctuations but also stabilizes phenotypic outcomes, underscoring the importance of spatial heterogeneity in phenotypic robustness. This ability to probe adaptive, spatiotemporally resolved mechanisms in photosynthetic machinery and central carbon metabolism addresses a critical gap in genotype-to-phenotype inference and expands modeling and design capabilities for understudied or genetically intractable autotrophs such as P. marinus MED4.

Johnson, Connah G.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmark calculations of radiative forcing by greenhouse gases

Changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases lead to changes in radiative fluxes throughout the atmosphere. The value of this change, the instantaneous radiative forcing, varies across climate models, due partly to differences in the distribution of clouds, humidity, and temperature across models, and partly due to errors introduced by approximate treatments of radiative transfer. This paper describes an experiment within the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparision Project that uses benchmark calculations made with line–by–line models to identify parameterization error in the representation of absorption and emission by greenhouse gases. Clear–sky instantaneous forcing by greenhouse gases is computed using a set of 100 profiles, selected from a re–analysis of present–day conditions, that represent the global annual mean forcing from pre–industrial times to the present–day with sampling errors of less than 0.01 W m –2 . Six contributing line–by–line models agree in their estimate of this forcing to within 0.025 W m –2 while even recently–developed parameterizations have typical errors four or more times larger, suggesting both that the samples reveal true differences among line–by–line models and that parameterization error will be readily identifiable. Agreement among line–by–line models is better in the longwave than in the shortwave where differing treatments of the water vapor vapor continuum affect estimates of forcing by carbon dioxide and methane. The impacts of clouds on instantaneous radiative forcing are estimated from climate model simulations. Here, the adjustment due to stratospheric temperature change by assuming fixed dynamical heating. Adjustments are large only for ozone and for carbon dioxide, for which stratospheric cooling introduces modest non–linearity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fabrication of Large-Area Metal-on-Carbon Catalytic Condensers for Programmable Catalysis

Catalytic condensers stabilize charge on either side of a high-k dielectric film to modulate the electronic states of a catalytic layer for the electronic control of surface reactions. Here, carbon sputtering provided for fast, large-scale fabrication of metal–carbon catalytic condensers required for industrial application. Carbon films were sputtered on HfO 2 dielectric/p-type Si with different thicknesses (1, 3, 6, and 10 nm), and the enhancement of conductance and capacitance of carbon films was observed upon increasing the carbon thickness following thermal treatment at 400 °C. After Pt deposition on the carbon films, the Pt catalytic condenser exhibited a high capacitance of ∼210 nF/cm 2 that was maintained at a frequency ∼1000 Hz, satisfying the requirement for a dynamic catalyst to implement catalytic resonance. Temperature-programmed desorption of carbon monoxide yielded CO desorption peaks that shifted in temperature with the varying potential applied to the condenser (−6 or +6 V), indicating a shift in the binding energy of carbon monoxide on the Pt condenser surface. A substantial increase in capacitance (∼2000 nF/cm 2 ) of the Pt-on-carbon devices was observed at elevated temperatures of 400 °C that can modulate ∼10% of charge per metal atom when 10 V potential was applied. A large catalytic condenser of 42 cm 2 area Pt/C/HfO 2 /Si exhibited a high capacitance of 9393 nF with a low leakage current/capacitive current ratio (<0.1), demonstrating the practicality and versatility of the facile, large-scale fabrication method for metal–carbon catalytic condensers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Polymer Inhibitors Enable >900 cm2 Dynamic Windows Based on Reversible Metal Electrodeposition with High Solar Modulation

Dynamic windows with adjustable tint give users control over the flow of light and heat to decrease the carbon footprint of buildings and improve the occupants’ comfort. Despite the benefits of dynamic windows, they are rarely deployed in buildings because the existing technology cannot achieve fast and colour-neutral tinting at an agreeable cost. Reversible metal electrodeposition is a promising approach to solve these problems. Here, we demonstrate the use of polymer inhibitors to reversibly deposit metal films with controlled morphology in dynamic windows. The windows that employ the polymer inhibitor can readily tint to below 0.001% visible transmittance in less than 3 min and exhibit high infrared reflectance (>70%), colour-neutral transmittance (C*<5) and an ultrawide range of optical and solar modulation (..delta..Tvis=0.76 and ..delta..SHGC=0.56). The polymer inhibitors also increase the efficiency and improve the durability of the windows and enable construction of >900 cm2 dynamic windows with fast response and excellent uniformity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Two-component dynamics in supercritical $\text {CO}_2$ from inelastic X-ray scattering

Supercritical fluids are characterized by unique thermodynamic properties. One of these properties is the existence of two-component dynamics that is associated with distinct low-frequency and high-frequency vibrational responses of the fluid. However, the origin of this behavior remains unknown. By combining inelastic X-ray scattering and molecular dynamics simulations, we show that this behavior can be connected to density heterogeneities arising from molecular clusters. Analyses of measurements and molecular trajectories suggest that the two-component dynamics emerges due to distinct momentum fluctuations of clustered and unbound molecules. This connection between clusters and two-component dynamics highlights the importance of molecular-structural heterogeneities in supercritical fluids, colloids, and condensed-matter systems.

biophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large eddy simulation of a pressurized reactive fluid–particle system: single-particle dynamics analysis

Pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in power generation. Designing an effective burner plays a vital role in developing new combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of particles in a pressurized oxy-combustor could be higher than that in the conventional combustor, therefore, the particle dynamics in the pressurized vessel need to be evaluated accordingly. The present computational work is to predict the influence of the particle size and particle injection location on the particle trajectory. The Stokes number based on turbulence fluctuation, St, is adopted to evaluate the impact of the gas phase on the particulate phase. A large eddy simulation (LES) with the environment pressure of 15 bar and the thermal input of the fuel particle of 100 kWth has been performed by means of the commercial CFD package. It is shown that that in this pressurized environment St << 1 for the 25 µm particles, St ~ 1 for the 100 µm particles, while for the particles exceeding 200 µm St >> 1. The trajectories of the sampling particles from the LES results support this conclusion: the particles less than 100 µm tend to be uniformly distributed in the space while the particles exceeding 200 µm tend to concentrate in the combustor.

Li, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling the depth-dependent causal dynamics of methanogenesis and methanotrophy in a high-latitude fen peatland

The dynamics of methane (CH 4 ) cycling in high-latitude peatlands through different pathways of methanogenesis and methanotrophy are still poorly understood due to the spatiotemporal complexity of microbial activities and biogeochemical processes. Additionally, long-term in situ measurements within soil columns are limited and associated with large uncertainties in microbial substrates (e.g. dissolved organic carbon, acetate, hydrogen). To better understand CH 4 cycling dynamics, we first applied an advanced biogeochemical model, ecosys , to explicitly simulate methanogenesis, methanotrophy, and CH 4 transport in a high-latitude fen (within the Stordalen Mire, northern Sweden). Next, to explore the vertical heterogeneity in CH 4 cycling, we applied the PCMCI/PCMCI+ causal detection framework with a bootstrap aggregation method to the modeling results, characterizing causal relationships among regulating factors (e.g. temperature, microbial biomass, soil substrate concentrations) through acetoclastic methanogenesis, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, and methanotrophy, across three depth intervals (0–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–30 cm). Our results indicate that temperature, microbial biomass, and methanogenesis and methanotrophy substrates exhibit significant vertical variations within the soil column. Soil temperature demonstrates strong causal relationships with both biomass and substrate concentrations at the shallower depth (0–10 cm), while these causal relationships decrease significantly at the deeper depth within the two methanogenesis pathways. In contrast, soil substrate concentrations show significantly greater causal relationships with depth, suggesting the substantial influence of substrates on CH 4 cycling. CH 4 production is found to peak in August, while CH 4 oxidation peaks predominantly in October, showing a lag response between production and oxidation. Overall, this research provides important insights into the causal mechanisms modulating CH 4 cycling across different depths, which will improve carbon cycling predictions, and guide the future field measurement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning and Controlling Silicon Dopant Transitions in Graphene Using Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy

A machine learning approach is introduced to determine the transition dynamics of silicon atoms on a single layer of carbon atoms, when stimulated by the electron beam of a scanning transmission electron microscope (STEM). This method is data-centric, leveraging data collected on a STEM. The data samples are processed and filtered to produce symbolic representations, which is used to train a neural network to predict transition probabilities. These learned transition dynamics are then leveraged to guide a single silicon atom throughout the lattice to pre-determined target destinations. Empirical analyses are presented that demonstrate the efficacy and generality of the approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microbial Community Shifts Reflect Losses of Native Soil Carbon with Pyrogenic and Fresh Organic Matter Additions and Are Greatest in Low-Carbon Soils

ABSTRACT Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in regulating global climate change, carbon and nutrient cycling in soils, and soil moisture. Organic matter (OM) additions to soils can affect the rate at which SOC is mineralized by microbes, with potentially important effects on SOC stocks. Understanding how pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) affects the cycling of native SOC (nSOC) and the soil microbes responsible for these effects is important for fire-affected ecosystems as well as for biochar-amended systems. We used an incubation trial with five different soils from National Ecological Observatory Network sites across the United States and 13 C-labeled 350°C corn stover PyOM and fresh corn stover OM to trace nSOC-derived CO 2 emissions with and without PyOM and OM amendments. We used high-throughput sequencing of rRNA genes to characterize bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities and their responses to PyOM and OM in soils that were previously stored at −80°C. We found that the effects of amendments on nSOC-derived CO 2 reflected the unamended soil C status, where relative increases in C mineralization were greatest in low-C soils. OM additions produced much greater effects on nSOC-CO 2 emissions than PyOM additions. Furthermore, the magnitude of the microbial community composition change mirrored the magnitude of increases in nSOC-CO 2 , indicating that a specific subset of microbes was likely responsible for the observed changes in nSOC mineralization. However, PyOM responders differed across soils and did not necessarily reflect a common “charosphere.” Overall, this study suggests that soils that already have low SOC may be particularly vulnerable to short-term increases in SOC loss with OM or PyOM additions. IMPORTANCE Soil organic matter (SOM) has an important role in global climate change, carbon and nutrient cycling in soils, and soil moisture dynamics. Understanding the processes that affect SOM stocks is important for managing these functions. Recently, understanding how fire-affected organic matter (or “pyrogenic” organic matter [PyOM]) affects existing SOM stocks has become increasingly important, due to both changing fire regimes and interest in “biochar,” pyrogenic organic matter that is produced intentionally for carbon management or as an agricultural soil amendment. We found that soils with less SOM were more prone to increased losses with PyOM (and fresh organic matter) additions and that soil microbial communities changed more in soils that also had greater SOM losses with PyOM additions. This suggests that soils that already have low SOM content may be particularly vulnerable to short-term increases in SOM loss and that a subset of the soil microbial community is likely responsible for these effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-pressure reduction of carbon dioxide in reactive liquid mixtures

Density-functional theory based molecular-dynamics simulations were used to investigate high-pressure chemical reactions in liquid mixtures of CO 2 with several elements (Si, Mn, and Fe) at high temperatures of 2000-3000 K. Our ab initio simulations indicate that these reactant elements can reduce CO 2 to C at high pressures (20 GPa) leading to the formation of C-C chains, with Si by far the most effective carbon-reducing agent. A combined chemical analysis using Bader charge analysis and Crystal Orbital Hamilton Population (COHP) on simulation snapshots shows that significant charge transfer from the reducing element to the C atoms creates instability in the C-O covalent bonds. COHP analysis further shows that Mn/Fe-O and Mn/Fe-C bonding interactions are weaker compared to the Si counterparts. These results further our understanding of the redox chemistry of CO 2 at conditions relevant to planetary mantle interiors and demonstrate the effectiveness of high pressure in the reduction of CO 2 directly to solid carbon.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Molecular dynamics study on the interfacial properties of mixtures of monomers of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP)-based battery binders on graphene and graphite surfaces

This study investigates the behavior of two different mixtures of monomers of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP)-based battery binders, polyvinylpyrrolidone:polyvinylidene difluoride (PVP:PVDF) and polyvinylpyrrolidone:polyacrylic acid (PVP:PAA), at graphene and graphite interfaces using classical molecular dynamics simulations. The aim is to identify the best performing monomer binder blend and carbon-based material for the design of battery-optimized energy devices. The PVP:PAA monomer binder blend and graphite are found to have the best interaction energies, densification upon adsorption, and more ordered structure. The adsorption of both monomer binder blends is strongly guided by the higher affinity of PVP and PAA monomeric molecules for the surfaces compared to PVDF. The structure of adsorbed layers of PVP:PVDF monomer binder blend on graphene and graphite develops more quickly than PVP:PAA, indicating faster kinetics. This study complements a previous density functional theory study recently reported by our group and contributes to a better understanding of the nanoscopic features of relevant interfacial regions involving mixtures of monomers of PVP-based battery binders and different carbon-based materials. In conclusion, the effect of a blend of commonly used monomer binders on carbon-based materials is essential for obtaining tightly bound anode and cathode active materials in lithium-ion batteries, which is crucial for designing battery-optimized energy devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗