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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of Inactive Lithium and Solid–Electrolyte Interphase Species on Graphite Electrodes after Fast Charging

Rapid charging of Li-ion batteries is limited by lithium plating on graphite anodes, whereby Li+ ions are reduced to Li metal on the graphite particle surface instead of inserting between graphitic layers, which directly contributes to cell capacity loss because of the low reversibility of the Li plating/stripping process. Furthermore, precisely identifying the onset and amount of Li plating is therefore vital in order to remedy these issues. We demonstrate a titration technique with a detection limit of 20 nmol (5 × 10 –4 mAh) of Li that can be used to quantify inactive Li that remains on the graphite electrode after fast charging. The titration is extended to quantify the total amount of solid carbonate species and lithium acetylide (Li 2 C 2 ) within the solid–electrolyte interphase (SEI), and electrochemical modeling is used to determine the Li plating exchange current density (10 A/m 2 ) and stripping efficiency (65%) of plated Li metal on graphite. These techniques provide a highly accurate measure of the onset of Li plating and quantitative insight into graphite SEI evolution during fast charging.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Acoustic Source Model for Chemical Explosions in Air

Chemical explosions generate pressure disturbances in air that radiate as nonlinear shock waves near the source and transition into acoustic waves with distance. Because low-frequency acoustic waves generally travel large distances without significant loss of energy, they are often used for explosion monitoring and yield estimation. However, quantitative relationships between acoustic energy and explosion yields are required for accurate yield estimation. Here, we develop an empirical acoustic source model for chemical explosions from experimental data. The empirical model returns the acoustic pressure waveform for the detonation of 1 kg of trinitrotoluene, which is conventionally used to represent the explosive release of 4.184 MJ of explosion energy. The full-waveform model can be used to predict acoustic signals for an arbitrary yield of a high-explosive detonation based on the standard scaling law and to estimate acoustic energies in a specific frequency range. We evaluate the accuracy of the acoustic source model independently by estimating the yield of other explosive events that are not included in the model development. Finally, statistical characteristics of the model and their implications for the uncertainty quantification of estimated yields are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Satellite Clear‐Sky Observations Overestimate Surface Urban Heat Islands in Humid Cities

Satellite-based thermal infrared (TIR) land surface temperature (LST) is hindered by cloud cover and is applicable solely under clear-sky conditions for estimating surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII). Clear-sky SUHII may not accurately represent all-sky conditions, potentially introducing quantitative biases in assessing urban heat islands. However, the differences between clear-sky and all-sky SUHIIs and their spatiotemporal variations are still poorly understood. Our analysis of over 600 global cities demonstrates that clear-sky SUHII is mostly higher than all-sky SUHII, particularly in summer, daytime, and precipitation-rich regions. Besides, clear-sky SUHII typically exhibits stronger seasonal and diurnal contrasts than all-sky SUHII, especially for cities located in humid regions. These discrepancies can be attributed mainly to the increased missing LST data caused by cloud enhancement in urban areas. Our findings highlight the tendency for clear-sky observations to overestimate SUHII, providing valuable insights for standardizing the quantification of surface urban heat islands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Use of shape-preserving interpolation methods in surface modeling

In many large-scale scientific computations, it is necessary to use surface models based on information provided at only a finite number of points (rather than determined everywhere via an analytic formula). As an example, an equation of state (EOS) table may provide values of pressure as a function of temperature and density for a particular material. These values, while known quite accurately, are typically known only on a rectangular (but generally quite nonuniform) mesh in (T,d)-space. Thus interpolation methods are necessary to completely determine the EOS surface. The most primitive EOS interpolation scheme is bilinear interpolation. This has the advantages of depending only on local information, so that changes in data remote from a mesh element have no effect on the surface over the element, and of preserving shape information, such as monotonicity. Most scientific calculations, however, require greater smoothness. Standard higher-order interpolation schemes, such as Coons patches or bicubic splines, while providing the requisite smoothness, tend to produce surfaces that are not physically reasonable. This means that the interpolant may have bumps or wiggles that are not supported by the data. The mathematical quantification of ideas such as physically reasonable and visually pleasing is examined.

Ftitsch, F. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Rocket-Plume Spectroscopy Simulation for Hydrocarbon-Fueled Rocket Engines

The UV-Vis spectroscopic system for plume diagnostics monitors rocket engine health by using several analytical tools developed at Stennis Space Center (SSC), including the rocket plume spectroscopy simulation code (RPSSC), to identify and quantify the alloys from the metallic elements observed in engine plumes. Because the hydrocarbon-fueled rocket engine is likely to contain C2, CO, CH, CN, and NO in addition to OH and H2O, the relevant electronic bands of these molecules in the spectral range of 300 to 850 nm in the RPSSC have been included. SSC incorporated several enhancements and modifications to the original line-by-line spectral simulation computer program implemented for plume spectral data analysis and quantification in 1994. These changes made the program applicable to the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and the Diagnostic Testbed Facility Thruster (DTFT) exhaust plume spectral data. Modifications included updating the molecular and spectral parameters for OH, adding spectral parameter input files optimized for the 10 elements of interest in the spectral range from 320 to 430 nm and linking the output to graphing and analysis packages. Additionally, the ability to handle the non-uniform wavelength interval at which the spectral computations are made was added. This allowed a precise superposition of wavelengths at which the spectral measurements have been made with the wavelengths at which the spectral computations are done by using the line-by-line (LBL) code. To account for hydrocarbon combustion products in the plume, which might interfere with detection and quantification of metallic elements in the spectral region of 300 to 850 nm, the spectroscopic code has been enhanced to include the carbon-based combustion species of C2, CO, and CH. In addition, CN and NO have spectral bands in 300 to 850 nm and, while these molecules are not direct products of hydrocarbon-oxygen combustion systems, they can show up if nitrogen or a nitrogen compound is present as an impurity in the propellants and/or these can form in the boundary layer as a result of interaction of the hot plume with the atmosphere during the ground testing of engines. Ten additional electronic band systems of these five molecules have been included into the code. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to obtain the most accurate values for the molecular and the spectral parameters, including Franck-Cordon factors and electronic transition moments for all ten band systems. For each elemental transition in the RPSSC, six spectral parameters - Doppler broadened line width at half-height, pressure-broadened line width at half-height, electronic multiplicity of the upper state, electronic term energy of the upper state, Einstein transition probability coefficient, and the atomic line center - are required. Input files have been created for ten elements of Ni, Fe, Cr, Co, Cu, Ca, Mn, Al, Ag, and Pd, which retain only relatively moderate to strong transitions in 300 to 430 nm spectral range for each element. The number of transitions in the input files is 68 for Ni; 148 for Fe; 6 for Cr; 87 for Co; 1 for Ca; 3 for Mn; 2 each for Cu, Al, and Ag; and 11 for Pd.

Tejwani, Gopal D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Value of Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings through Field Study: Preprint

Quantifying the annual energy impacts of efficient technologies in commercial buildings has been well established by the building science field. As we move toward enabling grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB) targeting flexible building operation and carbon reduction, quantification methods to evaluate time-sensitive peak load and emissions impact are much less defined. A number of national laboratories are working to field validate four different GEB software solutions that provide the capability to control multiple building end-use systems in multiple load flexibility modes (i.e., energy efficiency, load shed, load shift, and possible load modulation at the second to sub-second level). To guide the laboratory leads in effective measurement and verification (M&V) practices, two of the laboratories collaborated to define metrics to quantify the impacts of flexible load control on building demand, utility costs, carbon emissions, facility management, and occupant comfort. This paper summarizes the proposed metrics to quantify peak load and emission impacts in the field, decision parameters, approaches to accurately conduct M&V, lessons learned, and outstanding needs and next steps.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Value of Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings through Field Study

Quantifying the annual energy impacts of efficient technologies in commercial buildings has been well established by the building science field. As we move toward enabling grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB) targeting flexible building operation and carbon reduction, quantification methods to evaluate time-sensitive peak load and emissions impact are much less defined. A number of national laboratories are working to field validate four different GEB software solutions that provide the capability to control multiple building end-use systems in multiple load flexibility modes (i.e., energy efficiency, load shed, load shift, and possible load modulation at the second to sub-second level). To guide the laboratory leads in effective measurement and verification (M&V) practices, two of the laboratories collaborated to define metrics to quantify the impacts of flexible load control on building demand, utility costs, carbon emissions, facility management, and occupant comfort. This paper summarizes the proposed metrics to quantify peak load and emission impacts in the field, decision parameters, approaches to accurately conduct M&V, lessons learned, and outstanding needs and next steps.

Langner, Rois↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2007

Numerical Uncertainty Quantification for Radiation Analysis Tools

Recently a new emphasis has been placed on engineering applications of space radiation analyses and thus a systematic effort of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. There are two sources of uncertainty in geometric discretization addressed in this paper that need to be quantified in order to understand the total uncertainty in estimating space radiation exposures. One source of uncertainty is in ray tracing, as the number of rays increase the associated uncertainty decreases, but the computational expense increases. Thus, a cost benefit analysis optimizing computational time versus uncertainty is needed and is addressed in this paper. The second source of uncertainty results from the interpolation over the dose vs. depth curves that is needed to determine the radiation exposure. The question, then, is what is the number of thicknesses that is needed to get an accurate result. So convergence testing is performed to quantify the uncertainty associated with interpolating over different shield thickness spatial grids.

Anderson, Brooke↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI), a novel soot thermometry technique

To meet stringent emissions regulations on soot emissions, it is critical to further advance the fundamental understanding of in-cylinder soot formation and oxidation processes. Among several optical techniques for soot quantification, diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging (DBI-EI) has recently gained traction mainly due to its ability to compensate for beam steering, which if not addressed, can cause unacceptably high measurement uncertainty. Until now, DBI-EI has only been used to measure the amount of soot along the line of sight, and here, we extend the capabilities of a DBI-EI setup to also measure in-cylinder soot temperature. This proof of concept of diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI) as a soot thermometry technique is presented by implementing DBI-TI in a single cylinder, heavy-duty, optical diesel engine to provide 2-D line-of-sight integrated soot temperature maps. The potential of DBI-TI to be an accurate thermometry technique for use in optical engines is analyzed. The achievable accuracy is due in part to simultaneous measurement of the soot extinction, which circumvents the uncertainty in dispersion coefficients that depend on the optical properties of soot and the wavelength of light utilized. Analysis shows that DBI-TI provides temperature estimates that are closer to the mass-averaged soot temperature when compared to other thermometry techniques that are more sensitive to soot temperature closer to the detector. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations provide estimates of the temperature measurement errors associated with this technique. The MC simulations reveal that for the light intensities and optical densities encountered in these experiments, the accuracy of the DBI-TI technique is comparable or even better than other established optical thermometry techniques. Thus, DBI-TI promises to be an easily implementable extension to the existing DBI-EI technique, thereby extending its ability to provide comprehensive line-of-sight integrated information on soot.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Methods for Carbon Mass Closure in Polyolefin Hydrocracking

Heterogeneous catalytic hydrocracking of polyolefins is a promising approach for the processing of postconsumer plastics, but product quantification methods remain inconsistent across the literature. In systems that generate a large fraction of vapor-phase products, typical product capture methods can result in large carbon balance deficits, exceeding 50%, compromising reported yields and selectivities. Here, we identify the major sources of product loss and develop enhanced capture methods to improve the quantification accuracy. Seven supplemental techniques were evaluated, targeting either increased vapor recovery (by increasing the volatility or system volume) or enhanced retention in the liquid phase (by decreasing volatility). Among these, a flow collection approach using a continuous helium sweep and downstream gas sampling bag capture yielded the highest recovery, achieving a 96 ± 9.2% carbon balance closure. We show that the efficacy of these methods is strongly dependent on product distribution. In general, solvent addition was most effective when condensable species dominate the product distribution, while flow collection was preferred when both condensable species and light gases are present in high concentrations. These results highlight the need for method-specific workup strategies and demonstrate that no single protocol is universally optimal. We provide general guidelines for selecting and implementing robust product capture techniques, enabling accurate yield and selectivity determinations in polyolefin hydrocracking systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Radiation induced athermal diffusivity in uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is one of the ceramic nuclear fuel alternatives to oxide fuel considered for light water reactors and advanced reactor designs. Properties like self- and fission gas diffusivity need to be better understood, given that they influence key fuel performance phenomena such as fission gas swelling and release. In particular, the radiation induced athermal (D 3 ) diffusivity remains challenging to accurately predict and has only been sparsely characterized in UN, despite its importance as it likely governs diffusion at the low temperatures this high-thermal-conductivity fuel form may operate. Molecular Dynamics simulations are used to estimate the mean square displacement induced by a primary knock-on atom (PKA) with a given kinetic energy. These results are combined with the PKA energy distributions obtained from binary collision approximation calculations to obtain the displacement due to a particular fission fragment. Finally, this is combined with experimental fission fragment yields to determine the displacement due to an average fission event and, thus, express the athermal diffusivity as a function of the fission rate density. These results are in excellent agreement with available experimental data. In conclusion, a particular importance is given to the understanding and the quantification of the variability of these results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

FY22 Status Report on the ART-GCR CMVB and CNWG International Collaborations

This work presents the numerical model for the high temperature test reactor (HTTR) loss of forced cooling (LOFC) experiment with the INL codes Griffin, BISON, and RELAP-7, based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. Promising results were obtained, with the overall behavior of the reactor successfully captured. Changes in the heat transfer coupling, as compared to the fiscal year (FY)-21 model, enabled drastic improvement of the steady-state solution, both in terms of computational time and global energy discrepancies. The former was reduced by a factor of roughly 60, whereas the latter decreased from 11% to less than 2%. Furthermore, the discrepancy in the steady-state multiplication factor was improved from +2,300 and +2,900 pcm (for the 30 and 9 MW cases) to -700 and +1,200 pcm, respectively, and now falls well within the large measurement uncertainties stemming from graphite impurities. Validation of the Monte Carlo model used to generate cross sections was also performed against available measurements. Though significant, the discrepancies remain acceptable overall in light of the large uncertainty. Numerous improvements are still needed to better compare with the experiment involving the 9 MW case and to instill greater confidence in the model’s ability to accurately predict the 30 MW behavior. Specifically, the power levels predicted by the 9 MW transient simulation following re-criticality remain low, pointing to an underestimation of the passive cooling of the core. A key aspect of future work will be to better understand the flow pattern during the LOFC event, particularly to determine if natural or forced convection is occurring inside the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). More generally, additional validation data would be immensely useful for further enhancing the numerical model and better matching the experiments. In addition, a more sophisticated thermal-hydraulics model that simulates all the channels as a single system model should be considered to take into account the rest of the primary loop. Finally, even if the results are in better agreement with the experiments, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification will be necessary to evaluate the model uncertainty.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fission Product Gas Monitoring During Fuel Drying Operations - 20094

The goal of the project was to devise and implement a method of accurately qualifying any noble gas emitted during fuel drying operations (part of the dry fuel storage process) in order to provide the data needed to validate the off-site dose calculations. The imputes of the project was the NRC publishing Information Notice 18-01, 'Noble Fission Gas Releases During Spent Fuel Cask Loading Operations' in February 2018. The information notice describes some industry events that occurred during vacuum drying operations as part of a dry fuel campaign. The solution was devised by Fort Calhoun Station staff in partnership with Mirion Technologies technical staff. The monitoring was accomplished by directing all the effluent from the fuel storage cask vacuum drying machine through a sample chamber containing a compact ISOCS characterized CZT based gamma spectrometer connected to a Mirion Data Analyst. This resulted near real-time quantification of the radionuclides of concern. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Kinetic Analysis of Non-Equilibrium Plasma- Assisted Methanol Pyrolysis and Oxidation Experiments

Efforts to enhance power generation efficiency and reduce emissions have driven interest in novel combustion techniques, including non-equilibrium plasma (NEP) ignitors. NEP ignitors show promise in improving energy conversion efficiency, fuel reforming, emission control, and lean-flammability limits. However, their adoption is hindered by a limited understanding of the interplay between plasma-enhanced combustion and thermal chemistry, particularly for complex fuels under engine-relevant conditions. Developing experimentally validated kinetic mechanisms is therefore critical. Additionally, the increasing interest in renewable biofuels like ethanol and methanol, coupled with the desirable qualities of NEP ignitors, presents a compelling opportunity for study. Therefore, this work acts as an extension of a previous work (Bopaiah et al., 2023) pertaining to the experimental results of NEP-assisted methanol pyrolysis and oxidation. Experiments were performed with a custom-built plasma flow reactor at 0.5 atm and temperatures from 523-1203 K. All reactive mixtures are extremely diluted to minimize exothermicity due to reactivity, allowing isothermal assumptions and the isolation of plasma chemistry from thermal chemistry. A dielectric barrier discharge plasma, at 14 kV and 15 ns full-width half maximum, was applied to the reactive mixture at varying frequencies to maintain the number of pulses with increasing temperature. Steady-state product speciation was performed downstream of the reactor with ex-situ GC/MS diagnostics. The attained experimental results were examined through in-depth analysis performed by means of an in-development plasma-coupled kinetic mechanism. As discussed in the previous work, the plasma significantly accelerates methanol pyrolysis, increasing stable intermediate production, including oxygenated and nitrile species. Plasma-assisted oxidation shows even faster fuel consumption compared to pyrolysis and a 200 K ignition shift compared to thermal oxidation. For plasma-assisted pyrolysis, the model demonstrates that accelerated fuel consumption stems from dissociative quenching of excited N2 states with fuel and H2, generating H radicals that react to rapidly form CH3 and CH2OH radicals. At low temperatures, these radicals recombine to produce oxygenates, while CH3 drives nitrile and hydrocarbon formation at higher temperatures. While the model captures pyrolysis trends well, discrepancies in methane, ethylene, and ethanol predictions are present. Similarly, the model faces challenges in accurately representing plasma-assisted oxidation, predicting a much steeper fuel gradient and ignition 100 K earlier than the experiment. While a similar scheme to pyrolysis is nested in the reaction pathway, the enhancement of the O and H radical fluxes and their initiation of the OH and HO2 radical pools dominate fuel and intermediate oxidation. The overestimation of these processes is shown to be responsible for the divergence of model from experiment. While the modelling predictions of this preliminary mechanism are not perfect, they serve as a valuable starting point. Primarily, they elicited new reaction pathways that are not otherwise possible in thermal chemistry induced reaction kinetics. The results also provide a basis for the future work that should be performed. For example, theoretical and experimental studies on excited nitrogen species and fuel/fuel radical interactions, quantification of the NOx production, and the kinetics behind the slow ignition observed in oxidation should be emphasized.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2022

Framework for Estimating Performance and Associated Uncertainty for Modified Aircraft Configurations

Flight testing has been the historical standard for determining aircraft airworthiness - however, increases in the cost of flight testing and the accuracy of inexpensive CFD promote certification by analysis to reduce or replace flight testing. A framework is introduced to predict the performance in the special case of a modification to an existing, previously certified aircraft. This framework uses a combination of existing flight test or high fidelity data of the original aircraft as well as lower fidelity data of the original and modified configurations. Two methods are presented which estimate the model form uncertainty of the modified configuration, which is then used to conduct non-deterministic simulations. The framework is applied to an example aircraft system with simulated flight test data to demonstrate the ability to predict the performance and associated uncertainty of modified aircraft configurations. However, it is important that the models and methods used are applicable and accurate throughout the intended use domain. The factors and limitations of the framework are explored to determine the range of applicability of the framework. The effects of these factors on the performance and uncertainty results are demonstrated using the example aircraft system. The framework is then applied to NASA’s X-57 Maxwell and each of its modifications. The estimated performance and associated uncertainties are then compared to the airworthiness criteria to evaluate the potential of the framework as a component to the certification by analysis process.

Uncertainty Quantification↗