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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks to Find the Optimal Forcing for Offsetting the Anthropogenic Climate Change Effects

Abstract Of great relevance to climate engineering is the systematic relationship between the radiative forcing to the climate system and the response of the system, a relationship often represented by the linear response function (LRF) of the system. However, estimating the LRF often becomes an ill-posed inverse problem due to high-dimensionality and nonunique relationships between the forcing and response. Recent advances in machine learning make it possible to address the ill-posed inverse problem through regularization and sparse system fitting. Here, we develop a convolutional neural network (CNN) for regularized inversion. The CNN is trained using the surface temperature responses from a set of Green’s function perturbation experiments as imagery input data together with data sample densification. The resulting CNN model can infer the forcing pattern responsible for the temperature response from out-of-sample forcing scenarios. This promising proof of concept suggests a possible strategy for estimating the optimal forcing to negate certain undesirable effects of climate change. The limited success of this effort underscores the challenges of solving an inverse problem for a climate system with inherent nonlinearity. Significance Statement Predicting the climate response for a given climate forcing is a direct problem, while inferring the forcing for a given desired climate response is often an inverse, ill-posed, problem, posing a new challenge to the climate community. This study makes the first attempt to infer the radiative forcing for a given target pattern of global surface temperature response using a deep learning approach. The resulting deeply trained convolutional neural network inversion model shows promise in capturing the forcing pattern corresponding to a given surface temperature response, with a significant implication on the design of an optimal solar radiation management strategy for curbing global warming. This study also highlights the technical challenges that future research should prioritize in seeking feasible solutions to the inverse climate problem.

Ren, Huiying↗
DOE OSTI2023

Transmission risk of Oropouche fever across the Americas

Abstract Background Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are important contributors to the global burden of infectious diseases due to their epidemic potential, which can result in significant population and economic impacts. Oropouche fever, caused by Oropouche virus (OROV), is an understudied zoonotic VBD febrile illness reported in Central and South America. The epidemic potential and areas of likely OROV spread remain unexplored, limiting capacities to improve epidemiological surveillance. Methods To better understand the capacity for spread of OROV, we developed spatial epidemiology models using human outbreaks as OROV transmission-locality data, coupled with high-resolution satellite-derived vegetation phenology. Data were integrated using hypervolume modeling to infer likely areas of OROV transmission and emergence across the Americas. Results Models based on one-support vector machine hypervolumes consistently predicted risk areas for OROV transmission across the tropics of Latin America despite the inclusion of different parameters such as different study areas and environmental predictors. Models estimate that up to 5 million people are at risk of exposure to OROV. Nevertheless, the limited epidemiological data available generates uncertainty in projections. For example, some outbreaks have occurred under climatic conditions outside those where most transmission events occur. The distribution models also revealed that landscape variation, expressed as vegetation loss, is linked to OROV outbreaks. Conclusions Hotspots of OROV transmission risk were detected along the tropics of South America. Vegetation loss might be a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. Modeling based on hypervolumes in spatial epidemiology might be considered an exploratory tool for analyzing data-limited emerging infectious diseases for which little understanding exists on their sylvatic cycles. OROV transmission risk maps can be used to improve surveillance, investigate OROV ecology and epidemiology, and inform early detection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data‐Driven Safety Risk Prediction of Lithium‐Ion Battery

Abstract Inevitable safety issues have pushed battery engineers to become more conservative in battery system design; however, battery‐involved accidents still frequently are reported in headlines. Identifying, understanding, and predicting safety risks have become priorities to further accelerate technology and industry development. However, diverse loading scenarios, significantly varied stress‐induced short circuit mechanisms, and highly coupled mechanical–electrochemical safety behaviors have remained grand challenges. Herein, the safety risk is termed as the probability of the mechanical triggering of an internal short circuit, to reflect the safety related behaviors of lithium‐ion batteries. Based on a mechanical model and experimental results, a sufficient dataset is generated consisting of strain states and their corresponding safety risks, covering both cylindrical and pouch cells, various states of charges, and loading conditions. Machine‐learning tools combined with the established finite element mechanical model are applied to predict the safety risks of the cells. The results achieve a high level of accuracy on the test data (the relative error of the average short circuit prediction deviation is less than 6.2%.). This work underpins the safety risk concept and highlights the promise of physics combined with data‐driven modeling methodology to predict the safety behaviors of energy storage systems.

Jia, Yikai↗
DOE OSTI2022

Training data selection for accuracy and transferability of interatomic potentials

Abstract Advances in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of interatomic potentials that promise the accuracy of first principles methods and the low-cost, parallel efficiency of empirical potentials. However, ML-based potentials struggle to achieve transferability, i.e., provide consistent accuracy across configurations that differ from those used during training. In order to realize the promise of ML-based potentials, systematic and scalable approaches to generate diverse training sets need to be developed. This work creates a diverse training set for tungsten in an automated manner using an entropy optimization approach. Subsequently, multiple polynomial and neural network potentials are trained on the entropy-optimized dataset. A corresponding set of potentials are trained on an expert-curated dataset for tungsten for comparison. The models trained to the entropy-optimized data exhibited superior transferability compared to the expert-curated models. Furthermore, the models trained to the expert-curated set exhibited a significant decrease in performance when evaluated on out-of-sample configurations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Key Questions for the Quantum Machine Learner to Ask Themselves

Within the last several years quantum machine learning (QML) has begun to mature; however, many open questions remain. Rather than review open questions, in this perspective piece I will discuss my view about how we should approach problems in QML. In particular I will list a series of questions that I think we should ask ourselves when developing quantum algorithms for machine learning. These questions focus on what the definition of quantum ML is, what is the proper quantum analogue of QML algorithms is, how one should compare QML to traditional ML and what fundamental limitations emerge when trying to build QML protocols. As an illustration of this process I also provide information theoretic arguments that show that amplitude encoding can require exponentially more queries to a quantum model to determine membership of a vector in a concept class than classical bit-encodings would require; however, if the correct analogue is chosen then both the quantum and classical complexities become polynomially equivalent. This example underscores the importance of asking ourselves the right questions when developing and benchmarking QML algorithms.

Wiebe, Nathan O.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring dark matter substructure with astrometric lensing beyond the power spectrum

Abstract Astrometry—the precise measurement of positions and motions of celestial objects—has emerged as a promising avenue for characterizing the dark matter population in our Galaxy. By leveraging recent advances in simulation-based inference and neural network architectures, we introduce a novel method to search for global dark matter-induced gravitational lensing signatures in astrometric datasets. Our method based on neural likelihood-ratio estimation shows significantly enhanced sensitivity to a cold dark matter population and more favorable scaling with measurement noise compared to existing approaches based on two-point correlation statistics. We demonstrate the real-world viability of our method by showing it to be robust to non-trivial modeled as well as unmodeled noise features expected in astrometric measurements. This establishes machine learning as a powerful tool for characterizing dark matter using astrometric data.

convolutional neural networks (1938)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preparing an Incompressible-Flow Fluid Dynamics Code for Exascale-Class Wind Energy Simulations

The U.S. Department of Energy has identified exascale-class wind farm simulation as critical to wind energy scientific discovery. A primary objective of the ExaWind project is to build high-performance, predictive computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools that satisfy these modeling needs. GPU accelerators will serve as the computational thoroughbreds of next-generation, exascale-class supercomputers. Here, we report on our efforts in preparing the ExaWind unstructured mesh solver, Nalu-Wind, for exascale-class machines. For computing at this scale, a simple port of the incompressible-flow algorithms to GPUs is insufficient. To achieve high performance, one needs novel algorithms that are application aware, memory efficient, and optimized for the latest-generation GPU devices. The result of our efforts are unstructured-mesh simulations of wind turbines that can effectively leverage thousands of GPUs. In particular, we demonstrate a first-of-its-kind, incompressible-flow simulation using Algebraic Multigrid solvers that strong scales to more than 4000 GPUs on the Summit supercomputer.

algebraic multigrid↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multireference Methods are Realistic and Useful Tools for Modeling Catalysis

Abstract Highly correlated systems, in particular those that include transition metals, are ubiquitous in catalysis. The significant static correlation found in such systems is often poorly accounted for using Kohn Sham density functional theory methods, as they are single determinantal in nature. Applications to catalysis of more rigorous and appropriate multiconfigurational methods have been reported in select instances, but their use remains rare. We discuss obstacles that hinder the routine application of multireference (MR) wave function theoretical calculations to catalytic systems and the current state of the art with respect to removing those obstacles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transport and stability in sustained high q min , high β N discharges on DIII-D

Abstract To address the needs for a fusion pilot plan design, DIII-D/EAST joint experiments on DIII-D have demonstrated high normalized beta β N ∼ 4.2, toroidal beta β T ∼ 3.3% with q min > 2, q 95 ⩽ 8 sustained for more than six energy confinement times in high poloidal beta regime. The excellent energy confinement quality ( H 98y2 ∼ 1.8) is achieved with an internal transport barrier at high line-averaged Greenwald density fraction f Gr > 0.9. The trapped gyro-Landau fluid (TGLF) modeling of the transport characteristics shows that the beam-driven rotation does not play an important role in the high confinement quality. The modeling also captures very well several transport features, giving us confidence in using integrated modeling to project these experimental results to future machines. The high-performance phase is terminated by fast-growing modes triggered near the n = 1 ideal-wall kink stability limit. New radio frequency (RF) capabilities for off-axis current drive could remove the residual ohmic current to achieve a fully non-inductive state, and improve the mode–wall coupling to increase the ideal-wall β N limit, enabling sustainment of the fully non-inductive high performance plasma in stationary conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Star–Galaxy Image Separation with Computationally Efficient Gaussian Process Classification

Abstract We introduce a novel method for discerning optical telescope images of stars from those of galaxies using Gaussian processes (GPs). Although applications of GPs often struggle in high-dimensional data modalities such as optical image classification, we show that a low-dimensional embedding of images into a metric space defined by the principal components of the data suffices to produce high-quality predictions from real large-scale survey data. We develop a novel method of GP classification hyperparameter training that scales approximately linearly in the number of image observations, which allows for application of GP models to large-size Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program data. In our experiments, we evaluate the performance of a principal component analysis embedded GP predictive model against other machine-learning algorithms, including a convolutional neural network and an image photometric morphology discriminator. Our analysis shows that our methods compare favorably with current methods in optical image classification while producing posterior distributions from the GP regression that can be used to quantify object classification uncertainty. We further describe how classification uncertainty can be used to efficiently parse large-scale survey imaging data to produce high-confidence object catalogs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1998

Second International Workshop on Software Engineering and Code Design in Parallel Meteorological and Oceanographic Applications

This report contains the abstracts and technical papers from the Second International Workshop on Software Engineering and Code Design in Parallel Meteorological and Oceanographic Applications, held June 15-18, 1998, in Scottsdale, Arizona. The purpose of the workshop is to bring together software developers in meteorology and oceanography to discuss software engineering and code design issues for parallel architectures, including Massively Parallel Processors (MPP's), Parallel Vector Processors (PVP's), Symmetric Multi-Processors (SMP's), Distributed Shared Memory (DSM) multi-processors, and clusters. Issues to be discussed include: (1) code architectures for current parallel models, including basic data structures, storage allocation, variable naming conventions, coding rules and styles, i/o and pre/post-processing of data; (2) designing modular code; (3) load balancing and domain decomposition; (4) techniques that exploit parallelism efficiently yet hide the machine-related details from the programmer; (5) tools for making the programmer more productive; and (6) the proliferation of programming models (F--, OpenMP, MPI, and HPF).

OKeefe, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2021

Teaching a neural network to attach and detach electrons from molecules

Abstract Interatomic potentials derived with Machine Learning algorithms such as Deep-Neural Networks (DNNs), achieve the accuracy of high-fidelity quantum mechanical (QM) methods in areas traditionally dominated by empirical force fields and allow performing massive simulations. Most DNN potentials were parametrized for neutral molecules or closed-shell ions due to architectural limitations. In this work, we propose an improved machine learning framework for simulating open-shell anions and cations. We introduce the AIMNet-NSE (Neural Spin Equilibration) architecture, which can predict molecular energies for an arbitrary combination of molecular charge and spin multiplicity with errors of about 2–3 kcal/mol and spin-charges with error errors ~0.01e for small and medium-sized organic molecules, compared to the reference QM simulations. The AIMNet-NSE model allows to fully bypass QM calculations and derive the ionization potential, electron affinity, and conceptual Density Functional Theory quantities like electronegativity, hardness, and condensed Fukui functions. We show that these descriptors, along with learned atomic representations, could be used to model chemical reactivity through an example of regioselectivity in electrophilic aromatic substitution reactions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

MArVD2: a machine learning enhanced tool to discriminate between archaeal and bacterial viruses in viral datasets

Abstract Our knowledge of viral sequence space has exploded with advancing sequencing technologies and large-scale sampling and analytical efforts. Though archaea are important and abundant prokaryotes in many systems, our knowledge of archaeal viruses outside of extreme environments is limited. This largely stems from the lack of a robust, high-throughput, and systematic way to distinguish between bacterial and archaeal viruses in datasets of curated viruses. Here we upgrade our prior text-based tool (MArVD) via training and testing a random forest machine learning algorithm against a newly curated dataset of archaeal viruses. After optimization, MArVD2 presented a significant improvement over its predecessor in terms of scalability, usability, and flexibility, and will allow user-defined custom training datasets as archaeal virus discovery progresses. Benchmarking showed that a model trained with viral sequences from the hypersaline, marine, and hot spring environments correctly classified 85% of the archaeal viruses with a false detection rate below 2% using a random forest prediction threshold of 80% in a separate benchmarking dataset from the same habitats.

Vik, Dean (ORCID:000000027546899X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Smart connected worker edge platform for smart manufacturing: Part 2—Implementation and on‐site deployment case study

Abstract In this paper, we describe specific deployments of the Smart Connected Worker (SCW) Edge Platform for Smart Manufacturing through implementation of four instructive real‐world use cases that illustrate the role of people in a Smart Manufacturing paradigm through which affordable, scalable, accessible, and portable (ASAP) information technology (IT) acquires and contextualizes data into information for transmission to operation technologies (OT). For case one, the platform captures the relationships between energy consumption and human workflows for improved energy productivity while workers interact with machines during semiconductor manufacturing. The platform utilizes human cognition to identify anomalous machine behavior for root cause analysis of system faults via neural network (NN) that recognize alarm postures of workers with cameras. For case two, a smart assembly line is demonstrated for state monitoring and fault detection. Machine learning (ML) models are used to recognize system states and identify fault scenarios with human intervention. For case three, the platform monitors human–machine interactions to classify manufacturing machine states for proper operations and energy productivity. Internal energy states of individual or collections of manufacturing equipment are determined via NN based algorithms that disaggregate signals associated with smart metering typically deployed at manufacturing facilities. These methods predict the real time energy profile of each machine from the total energy profile of a manufacturing site. For case four, a software defined sensor system built with scientific workflow engines is demonstrated for contextualizing data from laser surface refraction for characterization, and diagnostics in the processing of additively manufactured titanium alloy.

Donovan, Richard P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parameter uncertainties for imperfect surrogate models in the low-noise regime

Abstract Bayesian regression determines model parameters by minimizing the expected loss, an upper bound to the true generalization error. However, this loss ignores model form error, or misspecification, meaning parameter uncertainties are significantly underestimated and vanish in the large data limit. As misspecification is the main source of uncertainty for surrogate models of low-noise calculations, such as those arising in atomistic simulation, predictive uncertainties are systematically underestimated. We analyze the true generalization error of misspecified, near-deterministic surrogate models, a regime of broad relevance in science and engineering. We show that posterior parameter distributions must cover every training point to avoid a divergence in the generalization error and design a compatible ansatz which incurs minimal overhead for linear models. The approach is demonstrated on model problems before application to thousand-dimensional datasets in atomistic machine learning. Our efficient misspecification-aware scheme gives accurate prediction and bounding of test errors in terms of parameter uncertainties, allowing this important source of uncertainty to be incorporated in multi-scale computational workflows.

Swinburne, Thomas D. (ORCID:0000000232554257)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theory-based scaling laws of near and far scrape-off layer widths in single-null L-mode discharges

Abstract Theory-based scaling laws of the near and far scrape-off layer (SOL) widths are analytically derived for L-mode diverted tokamak discharges by using a two-fluid model. The near SOL pressure and density decay lengths are obtained by leveraging a balance among the power source, perpendicular turbulent transport across the separatrix, and parallel losses at the vessel wall, while the far SOL pressure and density decay lengths are derived by using a model of intermittent transport mediated by filaments. The analytical estimates of the pressure decay length in the near SOL is then compared to the results of three-dimensional, flux-driven, global, two-fluid turbulence simulations of L-mode diverted tokamak plasmas, and validated against experimental measurements taken from an experimental multi-machine database of divertor heat flux profiles, showing in both cases a very good agreement. Analogously, the theoretical scaling law for the pressure decay length in the far SOL is compared to simulation results and to experimental measurements in TCV L-mode discharges, pointing out the need of a large multi-machine database for the far SOL decay lengths.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Panoramic Mapping of Phonon Transport from Ultrafast Electron Diffraction and Scientific Machine Learning

Abstract One central challenge in understanding phonon thermal transport is a lack of experimental tools to investigate frequency‐resolved phonon transport. Although recent advances in computation lead to frequency‐resolved information, it is hindered by unknown defects in bulk regions and at interfaces. Here, a framework that can uncover microscopic phonon transport information in heterostructures is presented, integrating state‐of‐the‐art ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) with advanced scientific machine learning (SciML). Taking advantage of the dual temporal and reciprocal‐space resolution in UED, and the ability of SciML to solve inverse problems involving coupled Boltzmann transport equations, the frequency‐dependent interfacial transmittance and frequency‐dependent relaxation times of the heterostructure from the diffraction patterns are reliably recovered. The framework is applied to experimental Au/Si UED data, and a transport pattern beyond the diffuse mismatch model is revealed, which further enables a direct reconstruction of real‐space, real‐time, frequency‐resolved phonon dynamics across the interface. The work provides a new pathway to probe interfacial phonon transport mechanisms with unprecedented details.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗