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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

High concentrations of ice: Investigations using polarimetric radar observations combined with in situ measurements and cloud modeling (Final Report)

This DOE-funded joint project had the over-arching goal of understanding the reasons for observed size distributions of ice particles in cold clouds. Its approach involves the use of cloud models and field observations by radar and aircraft of real storms. The project addresses three major research objectives: (1) Utilize a novel polarimetric radar technique to retrieve size distributions and amounts of ice from radar data collected during the previous DOE ARM field campaigns; (2) Evaluate the results of ice microphysical retrievals using available in situ aircraft measurements and other remote sensors (e.g., vertically pointing cloud radars and wind profilers); (3) Improve the treatment of microphysical processes leading to cloud glaciation and ice multiplication in numerical cloud models. The study was performed by three research organizations: University of Oklahoma, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel, and Lund University, Sweden. The Israel and Swedish partners were funded by the sub-awards from the University of Oklahoma. Cloud modeling studies have been performed by the research teams at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ) and Lund University to identify the origins of high concentrations of cloud ice in areas of high ice water content (HIWC). The Hebrew University Cloud Model (HUCM) with full spectral bin microphysics and the Lund University aerosol-cloud (AC) model with a hybrid bin / bulk microphysics scheme complementing HUCM were utilized for simulations. Both research teams had particular focus on secondary ice production (SIP) as one of the possible sources of enhanced ice concentration. The HUJ group suggested a novel concept of ice multiplication during droplet freezing. It is assumed that splintering and droplet fragmentation during droplet freezing takes place because of dendritic growth within a supercooled drop. The resulting simulations of SIP generated small ice in concentrations exceeding hundreds per liter similar to what was observed in the HIWC regions of the tropical storms. The Lund team explored the SIP mechanisms such as breakup of ice particles due to ice-ice collisions and ice sublimation that are expected to dominate the continental storms. They also quantified the impact of homogeneous nucleation of cloud droplets on the total number concentration of ice at very low temperatures near the tops of the clouds. Additionally, the Lund AC model is able to simulate the effect of aerosols of various types (including biological) on the cloud life cycle and the corresponding ice production. The HUCM / AC model was used to simulate one of the “golden” cases of the DOE MC3E campaign on 20 May 2011. The model output was converted into the fields of polarimetric radar variables using the polarimetric radar forward operator developed at the University of Oklahoma and compared with radar observations and in situ microphysical measurements onboard research aircraft. It was demonstrated that specific differential phase KDP is the best radar parameter to identify the HIWC areas and quantify the corresponding ice parameters. For the first time, the shape of the vertical profile of KDP was realistically reproduced by the cloud model with the KDP maximum in the dendritic growth layer (DGL) centered at the -15°C isotherm. The University of Oklahoma team has developed a methodology for polarimetric radar retrievals of such microphysical parameters of ice as ice water content (IWC), mean volume diameter (Dm), and total number concentration (Nt) of ice particles. These retrievals have been validated using in situ aircraft measurements during 6 field campaigns and proved to be quite robust and reliable. This allowed to build the first climatology of the vertical profiles of polarimetric radar variables and retrieved microphysical parameters for the three types of weather systems: continental MCSs, maritime MCSs, and tropical cyclones / hurricanes (Hu and Ryzhkov 2022). The data were collected by a multitude of the WSR-88D radars in 13 continental and 10 maritime MCSs and 11 landfalling hurricanes. The HIWC areas were identified within the examined storms and the corresponding “HIWC statistics” was compared with the “background” one without HIWC. An overarching conclusion of the study is that maritime tropical storms (MCSs and hurricanes) are characterized by smaller size ice in higher concentration compared to the continental MCSs. High ice water content in the HIWC areas is primarily caused by a strong jump in a number concentration of ice particles rather than the increase of their size compared to the “background” environment. This may point to the homogeneous nucleation of excessive amounts of supercooled droplets and / or secondary ice production as the possible origins of HIWC. Such a climatology provides a good observational reference for the modelers to evaluate the performance of their models. As an example, the in-depth analysis of the 20 May 2011 MC3E case shows that the advanced cloud models developed in the course of this study still tend to underestimate the number concentration of ice in the HIWC areas although they succeed in reproducing realistically looking vertical profiles of IWC and Nt. The results of the project research are summarized in 13 journal papers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A protocol and analysis of year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models and beyond

We propose a protocol to evaluate and analyze year-long simulations of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs). The proposed protocol complements an earlier 40-day simulation protocol under the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) project to allow the analysis of the seasonal cycle and associated climatic relevant phenomena. This intercomparison aims to reveal how GSRMs, which can simulate mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the global domain, reproduce atmospheric large-scale structures related to convection beyond month-long simulations. The intercomparison for one-year simulations is conducted by either atmosphere-only models or atmosphere–ocean coupled models with atmospheric horizontal mesh sizes less than 5 km. We recommend the continuous four seasons from March 2020 to February 2021 as a target period for the intercomparison but with options for many groups to join more flexibly. The output variables are collected at 0.25° resolution, and archives of a small set of native grid variables are encouraged to analyze tropical cyclones and MCSs. Through the proposed global storm-resolving simulation, we will evaluate the climatological distributions of the atmospheric large-scale circulations, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), monsoon, midlatitude jets, their time evolution, and the upscale impacts on them. We present sample analyses from a one-year simulation using the 3.5 km mesh Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM), revealing the realistic zonal contrast of tropical precipitation, no double ITCZ structure, the reasonable midlatitude jet position and intensity but a weak bias of storm track activities, and a warm bias over the Eurasia during boreal winter. We also clarify the cross-scale interaction, such as the effects of cold pools on mean precipitation over the Maritime Continent through the precipitation diurnal cycle and the effects of resolved gravity waves on midlatitude mean flows. The proposed one-year simulation protocol is referred to as the “Sendai Protocol.” This protocol is not unique or definite for evaluating GSRMs; we prospect a hierarchical set of experiments from short-term to multi-year simulations as GSRM intercomparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of lightning in convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning observations from land-based lightning detection networks now allow monitoring this component of the electrical structure of tropical storms and hurricanes within a few hundred kilometers of the United States coastline. Several case studies confirm the long-held opinion that lightning is rather common within the outer rainbands. The general absence of CG lightning within the interior of mature tropical cyclones is also apparent. On the other hand, bursts of CG lightning near the circulation center of developing storms appear to precede periods of further deepening. The CG events are associated with convective supercells, whose anvil canopies can often obscure much of the underlying storm. Near-eyewall CG bursts preceding periods of intensification were noted in Hurricanes Diana (1984) and Florence (1988). A detailed case study of the 1987 unnamed tropical storm that struck the Texas-Louisiana coastline reveals that lightning was associated with two large supercells. These supercells appeared to be the trigger for the development of a closed circulation that formed several hours after the apparent low pressure center made landfall. Further studies of lightning may provide additional insight into the role of convective supercells in tropical storm intensification. It may also provide a useful diagnostic of impending deepening.

Lyons, Walter A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The development of hurricane Inez, 1966, as shown by satellite nighttime radiometric and daytime television coverage

A complete documentation of Numbus 2 High Resolution infrared Radiometer data and ESSA-1 and 3 television photographs is presented for the life-time of Hurricane Inez, 1966. Ten computer produced radiation charts were analyzed in order to delineate the three dimensional cloud structure during the formative, mature and dissipating stages of this tropical cyclone. Time sections were drawn throughout the storm's life cycle to relate the warm core development and upper level outflow of the storm with their respective cloud canopies, as shown by the radiation data. Aerial reconnaissance weather reports, radar photographs and conventional weather analyses were used to complement the satellite data. A computer program was utilized to accept Nimbus 2 HRIR equivalent blackbody temperatures within historical maximum and minimum sea surface temperature limits over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Allison, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

WRF Simulation of the Genesis of Hurricane Javier (2004) in the Eastern Pacific

The Eastern Pacific has the highest frequency of genesis events per unit area of any region worldwide (Elsberry et al 1987). African easterly waves, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and topographic effects are thought to play roles in the genesis of tropical cyclones there (Frank and Clark 1980, Velasco and Fritsch 1987, Zehnder 1991, Zehnder and Gall 1991; Farfan and Zehnder 1997). Mozer and Zehnder (1996), using dry, idealized simulations of flow past a large-scale three-dimensional mountain range comparable to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico, showed that upstream flow blocking led to diversion of the flow primarily to the south of the mountains. This flow diversion led to the formation of a low-level, barotropically unstable jet (at a location comparable to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec) and the continuous formation of synoptic-scale vorticity maxima, which they suggested may play a role in tropical cyclogenesis. Farfan and Zehnder (1 997) examined the synoptic-scale circulations that led to the formation of Hurricane Guillermo (1991). Using numerical simulations, they found that flow blocking led to the formation of a low-level easterly jet south of the mountains of Central America and a northeasterly (gap flow) jet over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which combined with the flow associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to produce a closed cyclonic circulation in the location of Guillermo s formation. As will be discussed in this paper, the evolution of the flow field that was associated with the genesis of Hurricane Javier was similar to that described in Farfan and Zehnder (1997), with well-defined topographic flow features. Here, using a high- resolution simulation with the WRF model, we investigate whether these topographically induced flows played a significant role in the genesis of Javier.

Braun, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Relating Lightning Activity to the Convective Evolution of Pre-Genesis Tropical Disturbances

Lightning and environmental characteristics are analyzed for National Hurricane Center (NHC) invest disturbances. For 2019-2021, Atlantic NHC invest tracks are grouped into disturbances that eventually developed into tropical cyclones (TCs) and ones that did not. Data from the NASA/NOAA Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is used to quantify potential differences in total optical energy, flash extent density, and flash area between the groups. To provide environmental context to the lightning results, vertical profiles from the NOAA Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) dataset will be investigated. Specifically, the profiles will provide insight into the temperature and moisture structure of the invests. In addition to the composite analysis, interesting cases of tropical cyclogenesis will be examined in further detail. Overall, this work seeks to further our understanding of lightning properties and convective environments in tropical cyclogenesis.

Justin W Whitaker↗
DOE OSTI2020

Satellite-Based Observations of Nonlinear Relationships between Vertical Wind Shear and Intensity Changes during the Life Cycle of Hurricane Joaquin (2015)

A CIMSS vertical wind shear (VWS-C) dataset based on reprocessed GOES-East atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) at 15-min intervals has a −0.36 correlation with the CIMSS Satellite Consensus (SATCON) intensity changes at 30-min intervals over the life cycle of Hurricane Joaquin (2015). Correlations are then calculated for four intensity change events including two rapid intensifications (RIs) and two decays, and four intensity change segments immediately before or after these events. During the first RI, the peak intensity increase of 16 kt (6 h) −1 (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s −1 ) follows a small VWS-C decrease to a moderate 8 m s −1 value (negative correlation). A 30-h period of continued RI following the first peak RI occurred under moderate magnitude VWS-C (negative correlation), but with a rotation of the VWS-C direction to become more aligned with the southwestward heading of Joaquin. During the second RI, the peak intensity increase of 15 kt (6 h) −1 leads the rapid VWS-C increase (positive correlation), which the horizontal plots of VWS-C vectors demonstrate is related to an upper-tropospheric cyclone to the northeast of Joaquin. A conceptual model of ocean cooling within the anticyclonic track loop is proposed to explain a counterintuitive decreasing intensity when the VWS-C was also decreasing (positive correlation) during the Joaquin track reversal. These alternating negative and positive correlations during the four events and four segments of intensity change demonstrate the nonlinear relationships between the VWS-C and intensity changes during the life cycle of Joaquin that must be understood, analyzed, and modeled to improve tropical cyclone intensity forecasts, and especially RI events.

Elsberry, Russell L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment

In August–September 2010, NASA, NOAA, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted separate but closely coordinated hurricane field campaigns, bringing to bear a combined seven aircraft with both new and mature observing technologies. NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, the subject of this article, along with NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) and NSF's Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment, obtained unprecedented observations of the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. The major goal of GRIP was to better understand the physical processes that control hurricane formation and intensity change, specifically the relative roles of environmental and inner-core processes. A key focus of GRIP was the application of new technologies to address this important scientific goal, including the first ever use of the unmanned Global Hawk aircraft for hurricane science operations. NASA and NOAA conducted coordinated flights to thoroughly sample the rapid intensification (RI) of Hurricanes Earl and Karl. The tri-agency aircraft teamed up to perform coordinated flights for the genesis of Hurricane Karl and Tropical Storm Matthew and the non-redevelopment of the remnants of Tropical Storm Gaston. The combined GRIP–IFEX–PREDICT datasets, along with remote sensing data from a variety of satellite platforms [Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Aqua, Terra, CloudSat, and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)], will contribute to advancing understanding of hurricane formation and intensification. This article summarizes the GRIP experiment, the missions flown, and some preliminary findings.

hurricane↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): The Role of the Easterly Wave Critical Layer - Part 1

The formation of pre Hurricane Felix (2007) in a tropical easterly wave is examined in a two-part study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a high-resolution nested grid configuration that permits the representation of cloud system processes. The simulation commences during the wave stage of the precursor African easterly-wave disturbance. Here the simulated and observed developments are compared, while in Part II of the study various large-scale analyses, physical parameterizations, and initialization times are explored to document model sensitivities. In this first part the authors focus on the wave/vortex morphology, its interaction with the adjacent intertropical convergence zone complex, and the vorticity balance in the neighborhood of the developing storm. Analysis of the model simulation points to a bottom-up development process within the wave critical layer and supports the three new hypotheses of tropical cyclone formation proposed recently by Dunkerton, Montgomery, and Wang. It is shown also that low-level convergence associated with the ITCZ helps to enhance the wave signal and extend the "wave pouch" from the jet level to the top of the atmospheric boundary layer. The region of a quasi-closed Lagrangian circulation within the wave pouch provides a focal point for diabatic merger of convective vortices and their vortical remnants. The wave pouch serves also to protect the moist air inside from dry air intrusion, providing a favorable environment for sustained deep convection. Consistent with the authors' earlier findings, the tropical storm forms near the center of the wave pouch via system-scale convergence in the lower troposphere and vorticity aggregation. Components of the vorticity balance are shown to be scale dependent, with the immediate effects of cloud processes confined more closely to the storm center than the overturning Eliassen circulation induced by diabatic heating, the influence of which extends to larger radii.

Wang, Zhuo↗
NASA NTRS2002

Overview of the Fourth Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-4)

The Convection And Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) is a series of field research investigations sponsored by the Earth Science Enterprise of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The fourth field campaign in the CAMEX series (CAMEX-4) was recently conducted during 16 August - 24 September 2001 using the Jacksonville Naval Air Station in Florida as the main base of operations. CAMEX-4 focused on the study of tropical cyclone (hurricane) development, tracking, intensification, and landfalling impacts using NASA-funded aircraft and surface remote sensing instrumentation. The results of this study will be used to address key issues pertinent to a larger NASA ESE study of the global water cycle as well as to provide synergistic contributions to the research goals of the Hurricane Research Division (HRD) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Hurricanes At Landfall Initiative of the United States Weather Research Program. All CAMEX-4 aircraft missions were planned and jointly conducted with NOAA aircraft to insure comprehensive sampling. An overview of preliminary observations of Tropical Storms Chantal and Gabrielle as well as Hurricanes Erin and Humberto will be presented.

Hood, Robbie↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96°C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42°C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

Lim, Young-Kwon↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were approximately 0.96 degrees Centigrade above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about 0.42 degrees Centigrade from a long-term upward trend and the rest (around 80 percent) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from ENSO was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005-2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005-2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC were key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 C above the 1901-2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017.

SST↗
DOE OSTI2022

VisMetHack2022: Visualizing winds and surface variables from the ECMWF IFS 1-km nature run

This data collection was contributed to the Visualisation Hackathon 2022 (#VisMetHack2022), in conjunction with the Using ECMWF's Forecasts (UEF2022) workshop. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are pleased to announce access to the data collection from global 1-km nature run (NR) simulations using the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) with explicit convection. We invite you to join us in exploring this precursor to a digital twin of the earth! The NR simulations reveal unprecedented detail of the earth’s atmosphere, and the then outgoing Editor-in-Chief of AGU JAMES commended the project as one of “stunning ambitions,” enabled by computational capacity at scale. The project also won the 2020 HPCwire Readers Choice Award for Best Use of HPC in Physical Sciences. A set of two NR seasonal simulations have been completed, one corresponding to the northern hemispheric winter months (NDJF) and the other for the North Atlantic tropical cyclone season (ASO). The project used the Summit supercomputer at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The simulations were facilitated with an INCITE award from the US Department of Energy Office of Science. For the first seasonal run of four months (NDJF), the hydrostatic IFS model was initialized at 00Z on 1 November 2018. The NR for the TC season (AS) was initialized at 00Z on 1 August 2019. The NR simulations were constrained only by sea surface temperatures (SST) at the lower boundary. The IFS output was saved every 3 hours. After feedback and interest from the scientific community, the simulations were rerun for four specific extreme events, with output every 15 minutes. The special cases include a tropical cycle and three severe storm events over the continental USA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

An evaluation of observations from satellites for the study and prediction of mesoscale events and cyclone events

Quantitative observational guidelines have been developed for the study and forecasting of mesoscale events and cyclone events; many of these guidelines have resulted from major meteorological field programs. Increasingly sophisticated satellite-borne instruments in low and geosynchronous orbits have provided valuable measurements of these events. The major deficiencies in the measurements taken from geosynchronous orbit today, relative to guidelines, are (1) the lack of temperature profiles and moisture profiles below clouds, and the poor vertical resolution of these profiles; (2) the insufficient combination of spatial resolution and temporal resolution and spectral intervals available in generating images (imaging); and (3) the lack of accurate precipitation mapping. Considerably more-powerful instrumentation is possible on geosynchronous satellites that can substantially reduce these deficiencies. The capability of advanced geosynchronous observations and those expected with future instrumentation in low-orbit are evaluated with respect to tropical cyclone and severe local-storm observational guidelines. A high percentage of the guidelines are expected to be fulfilled with geosynchronous measurements: (1) using microwave instruments for imaging and for obtaining temperature profiles and moisture profiles, (2) very high spectral-resolution infrared profiling, (3) very high spatial-resolution and very high temporal-resolution imaging, and (4) ozone mapping.

Shenk, William E.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States

Abstract. Windstorms are a major natural hazard in many countries. The objective of this study is to identify and characterize intense windstorms during the last 4 decades in the US Northeast and determine both the sources of cyclones responsible for these events and the manner in which those cyclones differ from the cyclone climatology. The windstorm detection is based on the spatial extent of locally extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis database. During the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceed their local 99.9th percentile over at least one-third of land-based ERA5 grid cells in this high-population-density region of the USA. Maximum sustained wind speeds at 100 m during these windstorms range from 26 to over 43 ms−1, with wind speed return periods exceeding 6.5 to 106 years (considering the top 5 % of grid cells during each storm). Property damage associated with these storms, with inflation adjusted to January 2020, ranges from USD 24 million to over USD 29 billion. Two of these windstorms are linked to decaying tropical cyclones, three are Alberta clippers, and the remaining storms are Colorado lows. Two of the 10 re-intensified off the east coast, leading to development of nor'easters. These windstorms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but exhibit maximum intensities as measured using 700 hPa relative vorticity and mean sea level pressure that is 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones that followed similar tracks over this 40-year period. The time evolution of wind speeds and concurrent precipitation for those windstorms that occurred after the year 2000 exhibit good agreement with in situ ground-based and remote sensing observations, plus storm damage reports, indicating that the ERA5 reanalysis data have a high degree of fidelity for large, damaging windstorms such as these. A larger pool of the top 50 largest windstorms exhibit evidence of only weak serial clustering, which is in contrast to the relatively strong serial clustering of windstorms in Europe.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

TRMM Latent Heating Retrieval and Comparisons with Field Campaigns and Large-Scale Analyses

Rainfall production is a fundamental process within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it represents both a principal forcing term in surface water budgets, and its energetics corollary, latent heating (LH), is one of the principal sources of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The vertical distribution of LH has a strong influence on the atmosphere, controlling large-scale tropical circulations, exciting and modulating tropical waves, maintaining the intensities of tropical cyclones, and even providing the energetics of midlatitude cyclones and other mobile midlatitude weather systems. Moreover, the processes associated with LH result in significant non-linear changes in atmospheric radiation through the creation, dissipation and modulation of clouds and precipitation. Yanai et al. (1973) utilized the meteorological data collected from a sounding network to present a pioneering work on thermodynamic budgets, which are referred to as the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). Yanai's paper motivated the development of satellite-based LH algorithms and provided a theoretical background for imposing large-scale advective forcing into cloud-resolving models (CRMs). These CRM-simulated LH and Q1 data have been used to generate the look-up tables used in LH algorithms. This paper examines the retrieval, validation, and application of LH estimates based on rain rate quantities acquired from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM). TRMM was launched in November 1997 as a joint enterprise between the American and Japanese space agencies -- with overriding goals of providing accurate four-dimensional estimates of rainfall and LH over the global Tropics and subtropics equatorward of 35o. Other literature has acknowledged the achievement of the first goal of obtaining an accurate rainfall climatology. This paper describes the second major goal of obtaining credible LH estimates as well as their applications within TRMM's zone of coverage, the standard TRMM LH products, and areas for further improvement.

latent heating↗