Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Transition Model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Convective Transition Statistics over Tropical Oceans for Climate Model Diagnostics: GCM Evaluation

To assess deep convective parameterizations in a variety of GCMs and examine the fast-time-scale convective transition, a set of statistics characterizing the pickup of precipitation as a function of column water vapor (CWV), PDFs and joint PDFs of CWV and precipitation, and the dependence of the moisture–precipitation relation on tropospheric temperature is evaluated using the hourly output of two versions of the GFDL Atmospheric Model, version 4 (AM4), NCAR CAM5 and superparameterized CAM (SPCAM). The 6-hourly output from the MJO Task Force (MJOTF)/GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) project is also analyzed. Contrasting statistics produced from individual models that primarily differ in representations of moist convection suggest that convective transition statistics can substantially distinguish differences in convective representation and its interaction with the large-scale flow, while models that differ only in spatial–temporal resolution, microphysics, or ocean–atmosphere coupling result in similar statistics. Most of the models simulate some version of the observed sharp increase in precipitation as CWV exceeds a critical value, as well as that convective onset occurs at higher CWV but at lower column RH as temperature increases. While some models quantitatively capture these observed features and associated probability distributions, considerable intermodel spread and departures from observations in various aspects of the precipitation–CWV relationship are noted. For instance, in many of the models, the transition from the low-CWV, nonprecipitating regime to the moist regime for CWV around and above critical is less abrupt than in observations. Additionally, some models overproduce drizzle at low CWV, and some require CWV higher than observed for strong precipitation. For many of the models, it is particularly challenging to simulate the probability distributions of CWV at high temperature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1996

Low-Dimensional Dynamical Models of Thermal Convection

A low-dimensional dynamic model for transitional buoyancy-driven flow in a differentially heated tall enclosure is presented. The full governing partial differential equations with the associated boundary conditions are solved by a spectral element method for a cavity of aspect ratio A=20. Proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to the oscillatory solution at Prandtl number Pr=P tau (omega) = 0.71 and Grashof number G tau (omega) = 3.2 x 10 (exp 4) to construct empirical eigenfunctions. Using the four most energetic empirical eigenfunctions for the velocity and temperature as basis functions and applying Galerkin's method, a reduced model consisting of eight nonlinear ordinary differential equations is obtained. Close to the 'design' conditions (P tau(omega) G tau(omega)), the low-order model (LOM) predictions are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the full model. In particular, the critical Grashof number at the onset of the first temporal flow instability (Hopf bifurcation) was well as the frequency and amplitude of oscillations at supercritical conditions are in excellent agreement with the predictions of the full model. Far from the 'design' conditions, the LOM predicts the existence of multiple stable steady solutions at large values of G tau, and a unique stable steady solution at small values of G tau, and exhibits hysteretic behavior that is qualitatively similar to that observed in direct numerical simulations based on the full model.

Liakopoulos, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting the Pseudocapacitive Windows for MXene Electrodes with Voltage-Dependent Cluster Expansion Models

MXene transition-metal carbides and nitrides are of growing interest for energy storage applications. These compounds are especially promising for use as pseudocapacitive electrodes due to their ability to convert energy electrochemically at fast rates. Using voltage-dependent cluster expansion models, we predict the charge storage performance of MXene pseudocapacitors for a range of electrode compositions. M 3 C 2 O 2 electrodes based on group-VI transition metals have up to 80% larger areal energy densities than prototypical titanium-based (e.g., Ti 3 C 2 O 2 ) MXene electrodes. We attribute this high pseudocapacitance to the Faradaic voltage windows of group-VI MXene electrodes, which are predicted to be 1.2 to 1.8 times larger than those of titanium-based MXenes. The size of the pseudocapacitive voltage window increases with the range of oxidation states that are accessible to the MXene transition metals. Here, by similar mechanisms, the presence of multiple ions in the solvent (Li + and H + ) leads to sharp changes in the transition-metal oxidation states and can significantly increase the charge capacity of MXene pseudocapacitors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1997

Demonstration of Wavelet Techniques in the Spectral Analysis of Bypass Transition Data

A number of wavelet-based techniques for the analysis of experimental data are developed and illustrated. A multiscale analysis based on the Mexican hat wavelet is demonstrated as a tool for acquiring physical and quantitative information not obtainable by standard signal analysis methods. Experimental data for the analysis came from simultaneous hot-wire velocity traces in a bypass transition of the boundary layer on a heated flat plate. A pair of traces (two components of velocity) at one location was excerpted. A number of ensemble and conditional statistics related to dominant time scales for energy and momentum transport were calculated. The analysis revealed a lack of energy-dominant time scales inside turbulent spots but identified transport-dominant scales inside spots that account for the largest part of the Reynolds stress. Momentum transport was much more intermittent than were energetic fluctuations. This work is the first step in a continuing study of the spatial evolution of these scale-related statistics, the goal being to apply the multiscale analysis results to improve the modeling of transitional and turbulent industrial flows.

Lewalle, Jacques↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Reaction of Atomic Hydrogen with an Imine: Direct Kinetic Measurements and Computational Studies

Imines are of interest in the combustion modeling of nitrogen-based fuels such as ammonia, as intermediates in atmospheric oxidation of amines, and may offer a new class of environmentally benign substitutes for perhalogenated reagents. Elementary gas-phase rate constants for the consumption of H atoms by 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoro-2-propanimine were measured over 294–736 K using the laser flash photolysis/atomic resonance fluorescence technique. The results are summarized as 3.0 × 10 –11 exp(−14.5 kJ mol –1 /RT) cm 3 molecule –1 s –1 with a confidence interval of ±13%. These are the first temperature-dependent kinetic experiments on an imine of the form R 2 C═NH and thereby provide the only validation of transition-state modeling for such systems. Several pathways are feasible; comparison of theory and experiment suggests the dominant channel is addition of H atoms to the nitrogen atom. On this basis, the observations are rationalized quantitatively. Computations also yield the thermochemistry of (CF 3 ) 2 CNH, with Δ f H 298 = −1232 kJ mol –1 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dominant Energy Carrier Transitions and Thermal Anisotropy in Epitaxial Iridium Thin Films

High aspect ratio metal nanostructures are commonly found in a broad range of applications such as electronic compute structures and sensing. The self-heating and elevated temperatures in these structures, however, pose a significant bottleneck to both the reliability and clock frequencies of modern electronic devices. Any notable progress in energy efficiency and speed requires fundamental and tunable thermal transport mechanisms in nanostructured metals. Here, in this work, time-domain thermoreflectance is used to expose cross-plane quasi-ballistic transport in epitaxially grown metallic Ir(001) interposed between Al and MgO(001). Thermal conductivities ranges from roughly 65 (96 in-plane) to 119 (122 in-plane) W m -1 K -1 for 25.5–133.0 nm films, respectively. Further, low defects afforded by epitaxial growth are suspected to allow the observation of electron–phonon coupling effects in sub-20 nm metals with traditionally electron-mediated thermal transport. Via combined electro-thermal measurements and phenomenological modeling, the transition is revealed between three modes of cross-plane heat conduction across different thicknesses and an interplay among them: electron dominant, phonon dominant, and electron–phonon energy conversion dominant. The results substantiate unexplored modes of heat transport in nanostructured metals, the insights of which can be used to develop electro-thermal solutions for a host of modern microelectronic devices and sensing structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2016

Transitioning Enhanced Land Surface Initialization and Model Verification Capabilities to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD)

Flooding, severe weather, and drought are key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), based in Nairobi, Kenya. Atmospheric processes leading to convection, excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content, especially during anomalous conditions and dry/wet seasonal transitions. It is thus important to represent accurately land surface state variables (green vegetation fraction, soil moisture, and soil temperature) in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The NASA SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) programs in Huntsville, AL have established a working partnership with KMD to enhance its regional modeling capabilities. SPoRT and SERVIR are providing experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities for capacity building at KMD. To support its forecasting operations, KMD is running experimental configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2008) model on a 12-km/4-km nested regional domain over eastern Africa, incorporating the land surface datasets provided by NASA SPoRT and SERVIR. SPoRT, SERVIR, and KMD participated in two training sessions in March 2014 and June 2015 to foster the collaboration and use of unique land surface datasets and model verification capabilities. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather and climate outlooks over Eastern Africa. For enhanced land-surface initialization, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run over Eastern Africa at ~3-km resolution, providing real-time land surface initialization data in place of interpolated global model soil moisture and temperature data available at coarser resolutions. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction (GVF) composites from the Suomi-NPP VIIRS instrument is being incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, using the product generated by NOAA/NESDIS. Model verification capabilities are also being transitioned to KMD using NCAR's Model *Corresponding author address: Jonathan Case, ENSCO, Inc., 320 Sparkman Dr., Room 3008, Huntsville, AL, 35805. Email: Jonathan.Case-1@nasa.gov Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) software in conjunction with a SPoRT-developed scripting package, in order to quantify and compare errors in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation in the experimental WRF model simulations. This extended abstract and accompanying presentation summarizes the efforts and training done to date to support this unique regional modeling initiative at KMD. To honor the memory of Dr. Peter J. Lamb and his extensive efforts in bolstering weather and climate science and capacity-building in Africa, we offer this contribution to the special Peter J. Lamb symposium. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows. The collaborating international organizations involved in the project are presented in Section 2. Background information on the unique land surface input datasets is presented in Section 3. The hands-on training sessions from March 2014 and June 2015 are described in Section 4. Sample experimental WRF output and verification from the June 2015 training are given in Section 5. A summary is given in Section 6, followed by Acknowledgements and References.

land surface modeling↗
NASA NTRS1986

The structure of the static corona and transition region

Static models of coronal loops are investigated. For loops that are low-lying with heights above the chromosphere below about 5000 km, it is shown that a new type of solution appears to the static equations, in addition to the well-known coronal loop solution. The new solution is characterized by a maximum plasma temperature less than about 100,000 K. The structure and properties of these cool solutions are discussed. The differential emission measure Q(T) expected for a magnetic arcade, which must naturally contain both hot and cool loops, is calculated. It is shown that the cool loops have a dramatic effect on the form of Q(T) in the lower transition region. In particular, they can account for the observed rise in Q at low T, which has long been thought to be incompatible with the static-loop model. Finally, the implications of the cool loops on other observations of both the solar and stellar coronae and transition regions are discussed.

Antiochos, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties Within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

As computational resources continue their expansion, weather forecast models are transitioning to the use of parameterizations that predict the evolution of hydrometeors and their microphysical processes, rather than estimating the bulk effects of clouds and precipitation that occur on a sub-grid scale. These parameterizations are referred to as single-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes, as they predict the total water mass among hydrometeors in a limited number of classes. Although the development of single moment microphysics schemes have often been driven by the need to predict the structure of convective storms, they may also provide value in predicting accumulations of snowfall. Predicting the accumulation of snowfall presents unique challenges to forecasters and microphysics schemes. In cases where surface temperatures are near freezing, accumulated depth often depends upon the snowfall rate and the ability to overcome an initial warm layer. Precipitation efficiency relates to the dominant ice crystal habit, as dendrites and plates have relatively large surface areas for the accretion of cloud water and ice, but are only favored within a narrow range of ice supersaturation and temperature. Forecast models and their parameterizations must accurately represent the characteristics of snow crystal populations, such as their size distribution, bulk density and fall speed. These properties relate to the vertical distribution of ice within simulated clouds, the temperature profile through latent heat release, and the eventual precipitation rate measured at the surface. The NASA Goddard, single-moment microphysics scheme is available to the operational forecast community as an option within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The NASA Goddard scheme predicts the occurrence of up to six classes of water mass: vapor, cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow and either graupel or hail.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Charge Transport Characteristics of Molecular Electronic Junctions Studied by Transition Voltage Spectroscopy

The field of molecular electronics is prompted by tremendous opportunities for using a single-molecule and molecular monolayers as active components in integrated circuits. Until now, a wide range of molecular devices exhibiting characteristic functions, such as diodes, transistors, switches, and memory, have been demonstrated. However, a full understanding of the crucial factors that affect charge transport through molecular electronic junctions should yet be accomplished. Remarkably, recent advances in transition voltage spectroscopy (TVS) elucidate that it can provide key quantities for probing the transport characteristics of the junctions, including, for example, the position of the frontier molecular orbital energy relative to the electrode Fermi level and the strength of the molecule–electrode interactions. These parameters are known to be highly associated with charge transport behaviors in molecular systems and can then be used in the design of molecule-based devices with rationally tuned electronic properties. This article highlights the fundamental principle of TVS and then demonstrates its major applications to study the charge transport properties of molecular electronic junctions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Semikinetic modeling of the outflow of ionospheric plasma through the topside collisional to collisionless transition region

A collisional semikinetic model is applied to the study of the topside ionosphere transition region. The paper considers the transition from (1) O(+) to H(+) dominance; (2) subsonic to supersonic H(+) flow; and (3) collisional to collisionless plasma. The H(+) ions flow upward from a relatively low altitude of 500-1000 km to a high altitude of 7000 km. These ions are subjected to collisions with O(+) ions and self collisions, as well as the effects of macroscopic forces such as the magnetic mirror force, gravity, and the ambipolar electric force. When supersonic outflow occurs, the H(+) velocity-distribution function shows a large departure from Maxwellian with a large positive and then negative heat flow, particularly in the region where the flow Mach number passes through one. In cases where subsonic outflow occurs and the H(+) density is relatively low, distribution functions with two peaks can occur. In these situations the H(+) ions have large parallel temperatures and large heat flows when the two peaks are of unequal height.

Wilson, G. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling-Based Design and Optimization of a Gradient Composite Transition Joint

An innovative additively manufactured gradient composite transition joint (AM-GCTJ) has been designed to join dissimilar metals, to address the pressing issue of premature failure observed in conventional dissimilar metal welds (DMWs) when subjected to increased cyclic operating conditions of fossil fuel power plants. The transition design, guided by computational modeling, developed a gradient composite material distribution, facilitating a smooth transition in material volume fraction and physical properties between different alloys. This innovative design seeks to alleviate structural challenges arising from distinct material properties, including high thermal stress and potential cracking issues resulting from the thermal expansion mismatch typically observed in conventional DMWs. In this study, we investigated the creep properties of transition joints comprising Grade 91 steel and 304 stainless steel through a combination of simulations and creep testing experiments. The implementation of a gradient composite design in the plate transition joint resulted in a significant enhancement of creep resistance when compared to the baseline conventional DMW. For instance, the creep rupture life of the transition joint was improved by > 400% in a wide range of temperature and stress testing conditions. Meanwhile, the failure location shifted to the base material of Grade 91 steel. Such enhancement can be primarily attributed to the strong mechanical constraint facilitated by the gradient composite design, which effectively reduced the stresses on the less creep-resistant alloy in the transition zone. Beyond examining plate joints, it is crucial to assess the deformation response of tubular transition joints under pressure loading and transient temperature conditions to substantiate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the design. The simulation results affirm that the tubular transition joint demonstrates superior resistance compared to its counterpart DMW when subjected to multiaxial stresses in tubular structures. In addition, optimization of the transition joint’s geometry dimensions has been conducted to diminish the accumulated deformation and enhance the service life. Lastly, the scalability and potential of the innovative transition joints for large-diameter pipe applications are addressed.

Zhang, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2025

Band-Selective Spin-Charge Separation across the Charge Density Wave Transition in Quasi-1D NbSe 3

Non-Fermi liquid (non-FL) phase is a pivotal enigma in understanding intriguing quantum phases in strongly correlated systems, such as high-temperature superconductivity. Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid (TLL) theory, designed for one-dimensional (1D) systems, serves as one of the microscopic frameworks that elucidates non-FL behavior. Despite its theoretical concreteness, comprehensive experimental verification has remained incomplete. In particular, addressing the persistence of the TLL nature within ordered phases, such as charge density wave (CDW), has posed a significant challenge. We report the observation of TLL characteristics across the CDW transitions in a quasi-1D material NbSe 3 using angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy. Spin-charge separation, a disentanglement of spin and charge degrees of freedom of electrons, is clearly observed within the band, accompanied by the suppression of spectral weight following a power-law behavior with anticipated temperature scaling. Surprisingly, the spin-charge separation persists even below the CDW transition temperatures, indicating the validity of the TLL nature in the CDW phase. In conclusion, our findings offer a unique opportunity to explore the interplay between the TLL and ordered phases, which could be connected to the interplay between non-FL and ordered phases in strongly correlated systems.

1-dimensional systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Shock-Wave/Boundary-Layer Interaction (SWBLI) Experiments in the Presence of Transition-to-Turbulence on a Flat Plate Model in the NASA LaRC 31-Inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel

Historically, there have been a limited number of studies involving Transitional Shock-Wave/Boundary-Layer Interactions (XSWBLI) in hypersonic flows, the majority of which have been performed at Mach Numbers of 7.5 and below. Additionally, there have been even fewer such experiments which incorporate non-intrusive and optical diagnostics. NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC), in collaboration with The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) and The University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI), is currently planning and preparing for a series of experimental aerodynamic tests using the NASA LaRC 31-inch Mach 10 Air Tunnel. The experiments will primarily focus on studying the dynamics of Shock-Wave/Boundary-Layer Interactions (SWBLI) in the presence of transition (XSWBLI) and turbulence (SWTBLI) on a large, flat plate model at a freestream Mach number of 10. Besides continued interest in understanding the flow at high Mach numbers, executing such tests at Mach 10 avoids some known concerns and will aid in solving new problems. XSWBLI are a highly unsteady phenomena and the generation of XSWBLI at lower Mach numbers can prove to be a significant challenge. This concern will be somewhat mitigated in the Mach 10 flow, as boundary layers become increasingly stabilized, but some difficulty in achieving transition is still expected. Modelling SWBLI in the presence of transitional and turbulent boundary layers has also proven to be difficult, so a high-Mach number experiment which applies non-intrusive and optical diagnostics will aid in solving a unique problem as well as advancing the understanding and characterization of an aerodynamic surface at Mach 10.The NASA LaRC 31-inch Wind Tunnel incorporates a test section having a cross-section of 31-inches × 31-inches and provides optical access to the test section via three (3) ultra-violet (UV) transmitting windows on the top, side, and bottom. The Mach 10 operating conditions will consist of pressures (P0) ranging from 2.4 to 10MPa (348 to 1,450 psi) at a temperature (T0) of 1,000 K (1,800 °R). The NASA LaRC 31-inch wind tunnel will deliver 1-minute blow-down runs, of which 30-45 seconds will be consumed to reach the aforementioned test conditions. The pump down time between runs will be approximately 45-60 minutes, which will provide for 6-10 test runs per day over the course of a weeklong entry. The proposed flat plate model will be constructed of stainless steel with geometry consisting of a10-inch × 30-inch upper surface and a 2-inch thickness. The model will be designed to support multiple leading-edge inserts in order to examine blunt, round, and sharp leading edges at Mach 10. Adjustments will be made to manage boundary layer thickness as well as the strength and size of the shock interaction region for each test. Measurements and diagnostics will be performed though high-speed Schlieren, on-body high-speed pressure transducers, IR thermography, and oil flow visualization. Hypersonic vehicle applications have and will continue to emerge at the forefront of aerospace. The NASA-UTSA-UTSI team realizes the value of characterizing SWBLI, XSWBLI, and SWTBLI behaviors well beyond single-digit hypersonic Mach numbers. As hypersonic vehicle speed capabilities continue to increase, measurement and diagnostic methods for Mach numbers of 10 and beyond will provide the foundation for a firm understanding of flow field behavior which will directly influence the advancement of technologies towards the design and manufacturing of high-speed aerodynamic surfaces, controls, thermal protection systems, acoustic treatments, and structural components. The use of non-intrusive and optical diagnostic methods in such experimentation is pivotal in developing the visualization and empirical data necessary to advance the aforementioned technology areas.

Shockwave/Boundary-Layer Interactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Competing Interactions between Mesoscale Length-Scales, Order-Disorder, and Martensitic Transformation in Ferromagnetic Shape Memory Alloys

In the present study, the effects of composition and heat treatments and the resulting microstructural changes on the martensitic transformation and ferromagnetic transition have been investigated in NiCoMnIn metamagnetic shape memory alloys. In this shape memory alloy system, it is observed that upon heat treatments at a wide temperature range, the onset temperature of the martensitic transformation follows a non-monotonic behavior with respect to heat treatment time, and the nature of the non-monotonic behavior is also a function of composition. This behavior cannot be attributed to well-known factors such as precipitation, change in local composition due to the precipitation and/or global degree of order. In this work, a systematic investigation through synthesis, thermal processing and characterization via thermo-physical measurements, transmission electron microscopy and in-situ synchrotron x-ray diffraction experiments has been used to correlate the non-monotonic dependence of the martensitic transformation and ferromagnetic transition temperatures to the evolution of L2 1 domains arising from a order/disorder phase transition. A thermodynamic model for the magneto-structural transition is combined with classical nucleation theory to further ascertain the role of microstructural length-scales on the onset of the martensitic transformation. This work thus provides understanding of the thermodynamic and kinetic factors that can be controlled to tune the coupled magneto-structural transformations in NiCoMnIn metamagnetic shape memory alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Indirectly probing the structural change in ion-irradiated Zr-Based metallic glasses from small scale mechanical tests

Ion irradiation was applied to tailor the structural heterogeneities in Zr-based metallic glasses at room temperature. Experimental methods of X-ray diffraction, nanoindentation, and micropillar compression were conducted to examine the irradiation effects on their structural and mechanical property changes. It is found that the irradiated materials retained amorphous structure after room-temperature Ni ion irradiation. The reduction of elastic modulus and hardness measured by nanoindentation indicated the irradiation-induced mechanical degradation. A unified statistic model was employed to quantitatively predict the density and strength of irradiation defects, although their specific structural and physical nature is not explicitly included in this model. The transition of non-intersecting shear bands to multiple intersecting shear bands was observed on compression tests of irradiated micropillars with the increase of irradiation dose. Furthermore, the analysis of the displacement excursion of micropillar compression tests indicated a different deformation mode from the unirradiated state. These results from nanoindentation pop-in and micro-pillar compression tests suggested that irradiation eventually leads to a new state with different types and characteristics of structural heterogeneities from violent displacement cascades and non-equilibrium energy deposition/dissipation processes, which also proves ion irradiation as an effective method to tune the structure and mechanical properties of metallic glasses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sequential Bayesian inference of transition rates in the hidden Markov model for multi-state system degradation

The more easily available system performance data and advances in data analytics have provided us with opportunities to optimize maintenance programs for engineered systems, for example nuclear power plants. One key task in maintenance optimization is to obtain an accurate model for system degradation. Here, in this research, we propose a Bayesian method to address this problem. Noting that systems usually exhibit multiple states and that the actual state of a system usually is not directly observable, in the method we first model the system degradation process and the observation process based on a hidden Markov model. Then we develop a sequential Bayesian inference algorithm based on importance sampling and the forward algorithm to infer the posterior distributions of the transition rates in the hidden Markov model based on available observations. The proposed Bayesian method allows us to take advantage of evidence from multiple sources, and also allows us to perform Bayesian inference sequentially, without the need to use the entire history of observations every time new observations are collected. We demonstrate the proposed method using both synthetic data for a nuclear power plant feedwater pump and realistic data for a nuclear power plant chemistry analytical device.

42 ENGINEERING↗