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Planck 2018 results XII. Galactic astrophysics using polarized dust emission

Observations of the submillimetre emission from Galactic dust, in both total intensity I and polarization, have received tremendous interest thanks to the Planck full-sky maps. In this paper we make use of such full-sky maps of dust polarized emission produced from the third public release of Planck data. As the basis for expanding on astrophysical studies of the polarized thermal emission from Galactic dust, we present full-sky maps of the dust polarization fraction p, polarization angle ψ, and dispersion function of polarization angles S . The joint distribution (one-point statistics) of p and NH confirms that the mean and maximum polarization fractions decrease with increasing NH. The uncertainty on the maximum observed polarization fraction, pmax = 22.0 -1.4 +3.5% at 353 GHz and 80' resolution, is dominated by the uncertainty on the Galactic emission zero level in total intensity, in particular towards diffuse lines of sight at high Galactic latitudes. Furthermore, the inverse behaviour between p and S found earlier is seen to be present at high latitudes. This follows the S ∝ p -1 relationship expected from models of the polarized sky (including numerical simulations of magnetohydrodynamical turbulence) that include effects from only the topology of the turbulent magnetic field, but otherwise have uniform alignment and dust properties. Thus, the statistical properties of p, ψ, and S for the most part reflect the structure of the Galactic magnetic field. Nevertheless, we search for potential signatures of varying grain alignment and dust properties. First, we analyse the product map S × p, looking for residual trends. While the polarization fraction p decreases by a factor of 3-4 between NH = 10 20 cm -2 and NH = 2 x 10 22 cm -2 , out of the Galactic plane, this product S × p only decreases by about 25%. Because S is independent of the grain alignment efficiency, this demonstrates that the systematic decrease in p with N H is determined mostly by the magnetic-field structure and not by a drop in grain alignment. This systematic trend is observed both in the diffuse interstellar medium (ISM) and in molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. Second, we look for a dependence of polarization properties on the dust temperature, as we would expect from the radiative alignment torque (RAT) theory. We find no systematic trend of S × p with the dust temperature T d , whether in the diffuse ISM or in the molecular clouds of the Gould Belt. In the diffuse ISM, lines of sight with high polarization fraction p and low polarization angle dispersion S tend, on the contrary, to have colder dust than lines of sight with low p and high S . We also compare the Planck thermal dust polarization with starlight polarization data in the visible at high Galactic latitudes. The agreement in polarization angles is remarkable, and is consistent with what we expect from the noise and the observed dispersion of polarization angles in the visible on the scale of the Planck beam. The two polarization emission-to-extinction ratios, R P/p and R S/V , which primarily characterize dust optical properties, have only a weak dependence on the column density, and converge towards the values previously determined for translucent lines of sight. We also determine an upper limit for the polarization fraction in extinction, p V /E(B - V), of 13% at high Galactic latitude, compatible with the polarization fraction p ≈ 20% observed at 353 GHz. Taken together, these results provide strong constraints for models of Galactic dust in diffuse gas.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

BEYONDPLANCK X. Planck Low Frequency Instrument frequency maps with sample-based error propagation

We present Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) frequency sky maps derived within the BEYONDPLANCK framework. This framework draws samples from a global posterior distribution that includes instrumental, astrophysical, and cosmological parameters, and the main product is an entire ensemble of frequency sky map samples, each of which corresponds to one possible realization of the various modeled instrumental systematic corrections, including correlated noise, time-variable gain, as well as far sidelobe and bandpass corrections. This ensemble allows for computationally convenient end-to-end propagation of low-level instrumental uncertainties into higher-level science products, including astrophysical component maps, angular power spectra, and cosmological parameters. We show that the two dominant sources of LFI instrumental systematic uncertainties are correlated noise and gain fluctuations, and the products presented here support – for the first time – full Bayesian error propagation for these effects at full angular resolution. We compared our posterior mean maps with traditional frequency maps delivered by the Planck Collaboration, and find generally good agreement. The most important quality improvement is due to significantly lower calibration uncertainties in the new processing, as we find a fractional absolute calibration uncertainty at 70 GHz of Δg 0 /g 0 = 5 x 10 -5 , which is nominally 40 times smaller than that reported by Planck 2018. However, we also note that the original Planck 2018 estimate has a nontrivial statistical interpretation, and this further illustrates the advantage of the new framework in terms of producing self-consistent and well-defined error estimates of all involved quantities without the need of ad hoc uncertainty contributions. We describe how low-resolution data products, including dense pixel-pixel covariance matrices, may be produced from the posterior samples directly, without the need for computationally expensive analytic calculations or simulations. We conclude that posterior-based frequency map sampling provides unique capabilities in terms of low-level systematics modeling and error propagation, and may play an important role for future Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) B-mode experiments aiming at nanokelvin precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Intrinsic and extinction colour components in SNe Ia and the determination of R V

Context.The colour fluctuations of type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) include intrinsic and extrinsic components, which both contribute to the observed variability. Previous works proposed a statistical separation of these two contributions, but the individual intrinsic colour contributions of each SN Ia were not extracted. In addition, a large uncertainty remains on the value of the parameterR V , which characterises the dust extinction formula. Aims.Leveraging the known parameterisation of the extinction formula for dust in our Galaxy, and applying it to the host galaxy of SNe Ia, we propose a new method of separation –valid for each SN– using the correlations between colour fluctuations. This also allows us to derive a well-constrained value of the extinction parameterR V with different, possibly smaller systematic errors. We also define a three-dimensional space of intrinsic colour fluctuations. Methods.The key ingredients in this attempt at separating the intrinsic and extinction colour components for each SN –and subsequently measuringR V – are the assumption of a linearized dependence of magnitude on the extinction component of colour, a one-dimensional extra-intrinsic colour space (in addition to CaII H&Kλ3945 and Si IIλ4131 contributions) over four independent colours, and the absence of correlation between the intrinsic and extrinsic variabilities. Results.We show that a consistent solution is found under the previous assumptions, but the observed systematic trends point to a (small) inadequacy of the extinction formula. Once corrected, all systematic extinction effects can be cancelled by choosing a single scaling of the extinction colour component as well as an appropriate value ofR V = 2.181 ± 0.117. The observed colours are described within an accuracy of 0.025 mag. The resulting magnitude variability is 0.13 over allUBVRIbandpasses, and this fluctuation is shown to be independent of the bandpass to within 0.02 mag.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Interference of electrical double layers: Confinement effects on structure, dynamics, and screening of ionic liquids

Ionic liquids are widely used as electrolytes in electronic devices in which they are subject to nanoconfinement within nanopores or nanofilms. Because the intrinsic width of an electrical double layer is on the order of several nanometers, nanoconfinement is expected to fundamentally alter the double layer properties. Furthermore, in confined systems, a large portion of the ions are interfacial, e.g., at the electrode interface, leading to significant deviations of electrostatic screening and ion dynamics as compared to bulk properties. In this article, we systematically investigate the interference between electrical double layers for nanoconfined ionic liquids and the resulting influence on the structure, dynamics, and screening behavior. We perform molecular dynamics simulations for the ionic liquids [BMIm + ][BF$^-_4$] and [BMIm + ][PF$^-_6$] confined between two flat electrodes at systematic separation distances between 1.5 nm and 4.5 nm for both conducting and insulating boundary conditions. We find that while ion dynamics is expectedly slower than in the bulk (by ~2 orders of magnitude), there is an unexpected non-linear trend with the confinement length that leads to a local maximum in dynamic rates at ~3.5–4.5 nm confinement. We show that this nonlinear trend is due to the ion correlation that arises from the interference between opposite double layers. We further evaluate confinement effects on the ion structure and capacitance and investigate the influence of electronic polarization of the ionic liquid on the resulting properties. This systematic evaluation of the connection between electrostatic screening and structure and dynamics of ionic liquids in confined systems is important for the fundamental understanding of electrochemical supercapacitors.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Non-dilute helium-related defect interactions in the near-surface region of plasma-exposed tungsten

We report a systematic energetic analysis of helium-related defect interactions that mediate helium (He) segregation on surfaces of plasma-exposed tungsten at different levels of He ion implantation. We focus on high He fluences that increase the He content in the plasma-exposed material well beyond the dilute limit of He concentration and employ atomic configurations generated by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of He-implanted tungsten. We perform systematic molecular statics computations of cluster– defect interaction energetics in the highly defect-rich near-surface region of plasma-exposed tungsten for small mobile helium clusters as a function of the cluster distance from the surface. In this region, mobile clusters are also subjected to the stress fields generated by defects such as helium bubbles and other clusters, which govern cluster–defect interactions in addition to the cluster–surface interaction. Based on systematic investigation of individual cluster–defect interactions, we develop a mathematical framework to describe the interaction energy landscapes consisting of elastic interaction potential perturbations to finite-width square-well potentials, where the potential well accounts for cluster trapping by the defect at close range and subsequent coalescence and the perturbation potential is parameterized according to elastic inclusion theory. Superposition of all the relevant interaction potentials provides a comprehensive description of the interaction energy landscape that would be experienced by a small mobile cluster along its migration path toward the plasma-exposed surface at high He fluence. Such descriptions are particularly important for developing atomistically-informed, hierarchical multi-scale models of helium cluster dynamics in plasma-facing materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding the chemical contribution to the enhancement mechanism in SERS: Connection with Hammett parameters

The enhancement mechanism due to the molecule-surface chemical interaction in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) has been characterized using a theoretical approach based on time dependent density functional theory. This includes a systematic study of the chemical mechanism (CM) to the SERS enhancement for halogen substituted benzenethiols interacting with a silver cluster. Changing the halogen on benzenethiol enables us to systematically modulate interactions between the benzenethiol ring and the metal cluster. We observe a decrease in the CM enhancement factor with an increase in atomic number of the halogen for para- substitutions. For meta- substitutions, there is no such trend. However, the results scale linearly with the Hammett parameters for both meta and para halogens, which provides an important predictive tool for interpreting chemical enhancements. We also study the effect of solvation on the CM, showing that there is a systematic increase in enhancement with increasing solvent dielectric constant. As a result, the correlation of CM with other properties, such as the amount of charge transfer between adsorbate and metal, or the excitation energies of charge transfer states, is much less predictive than the Hammett parameter correlation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Tempering stochastic density functional theory

Here, we introduce a tempering approach with stochastic density functional theory (sDFT), labeled t-sDFT, which reduces the statistical errors in the estimates of observable expectation values. This is achieved by rewriting the electronic density as a sum of a "warm" component complemented by "colder" correction(s). Since the warm component is larger in magnitude but faster to evaluate, we use many more stochastic orbitals for its evaluation than for the smaller-sized colder correction(s). This results in a significant reduction in the statistical fluctuations and systematic deviation compared to sDFT for the same computational effort. We demonstrate the method's performance on large hydrogen-passivated silicon nanocrystals, finding a reduction in the systematic deviation in the energy by more than an order of magnitude, while the systematic deviation in the forces is also quenched. Similarly, the statistical fluctuations are reduced by factors of ≈4-5 for the total energy and ≈1.5-2 for the forces on the atoms. Since the embedding in t-sDFT is fully stochastic, it is possible to combine t-sDFT with other variants of sDFT such as energy-window sDFT and embedded-fragmented sDFT.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pion valence quark distribution at physical pion mass of N f = 2 + 1 + 1 lattice QCD

Abstract We present a state-of-the-art calculation of the unpolarized pion valence-quark distribution in the framework of large-momentum effective theory (LaMET) with improved handling of systematic errors as well as two-loop perturbative matching. We use lattice ensembles generated by the MILC collaboration at lattice spacinga≈ 0.09 fm, lattice volume 64 3 × 96,N f = 2 + 1 + 1 flavors of highly-improved staggered quarks and a physical pion mass. The LaMET matrix elements are calculated with pions boosted to momentumP z ≈ 1.72 GeV with high-statistics ofO(10 6 ) measurements. We study the pion PDF in both hybrid-ratio and hybrid-regularization-independent momentum subtraction (hybrid-RI/MOM) schemes and also compare the systematic errors with and without the addition of leading-renormalon resummation (LRR) and renormalization-group resummation (RGR) in both the renormalization and lightcone matching. The final lightcone PDF results are presented in the modified minimal-subtraction scheme at renormalization scaleμ= 2.0 GeV. We show that thex-dependent PDFs are compatible between the hybrid-ratio and hybrid-RI/MOM renormalization with the same improvements. We also show that systematics are greatly reduced by the simultaneous inclusion of RGR and LRR and that these methods are necessary if improved precision is to be reached with higher-order terms in renormalization and matching.

Physics↗

The Simons Observatory: gain, bandpass and polarization-angle calibration requirements for B-mode searches

We quantify the calibration requirements for systematic uncertainties for next-generation ground-based observatories targeting the large-angle B-mode polarization of the Cosmic Microwave Background, with a focus on the Simons Observatory (SO). We explore uncertainties on gain calibration, bandpass center frequencies, and polarization angles, including the frequency variation of the latter across the bandpass. We find that gain calibration and bandpass center frequencies must be known to percent levels or less to avoid biases on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r on the order of Δ r∼10-3, in line with previous findings. Polarization angles must be calibrated to the level of a few tenths of a degree, while their frequency variation between the edges of the band must be known to O(10) degrees. Given the tightness of these calibration requirements, we explore the level to which residual uncertainties on these systematics would affect the final constraints on r if included in the data model and marginalized over. We find that the additional parameter freedom does not degrade the final constraints on r significantly, broadening the error bar by O(10%) at most. We validate these results by reanalyzing the latest publicly available data from the collaboration within an extended parameter space covering both cosmological, foreground and systematic parameters. Finally, our results are discussed in light of the instrument design and calibration studies carried out within SO.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Combining cosmic shear data with correlated photo-z uncertainties: constraints from DESY1 and HSC-DR1

An accurate calibration of the source redshift distribution p(z) is a key aspect in the analysis of cosmic shear data. This, one way or another, requires the use of spectroscopic or high-quality photometric samples. However, the difficulty to obtain colour-complete spectroscopic samples matching the depth of weak lensing catalogs means that the analyses of different cosmic shear datasets often use the same samples for redshift calibration. This introduces a source of statistical and systematic uncertainty that is highly correlated across different weak lensing datasets, and which must be accurately characterised and propagated in order to obtain robust cosmological constraints from their combination. In this paper we introduce a method to quantify and propagate the uncertainties on the source redshift distribution in two different surveys sharing the same calibrating sample. The method is based on an approximate analytical marginalisation of the p(z) statistical uncertainties and the correlated marginalisation of residual systematics. We apply this method to the combined analysis of cosmic shear data from the DESY1 data release and the HSC-DR1 data, using the COSMOS 30-band catalog as a common redshift calibration sample. We find that, although there is significant correlation in the uncertainties on the redshift distributions of both samples, this does not change the final constraints on cosmological parameters significantly. The same is true also for the impact of residual systematic uncertainties from the errors in the COSMOS 30-band photometric redshifts. Additionally, we show that these effects will still be negligible in Stage-IV datasets. Finally, the combination of DESY1 and HSC-DR1 allows us to constrain the "clumpiness" parameter to S 8 = ${0.768}_{-0.017}^{+0.021}$. This corresponds to a ~√(2) improvement in uncertainties with respect to either DES or HSC alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from DESI quasar targets and Planck CMB lensing

We detect the cross-correlation between 2.7 million DESI quasar targets across 14,700 deg 2 (180 quasars deg -2 ) and Planck 2018 CMB lensing at ~30σ. We use the cross-correlation on very large scales to constrain local primordial non-Gaussianity via the scale dependence of quasar bias. The DESI quasar targets lie at an effective redshift of 1.51 and are separated into four imaging regions of varying depth and image quality. We select quasar targets from Legacy Survey DR9 imaging, apply additional flux and photometric redshift cuts to improve the purity and reduce the fraction of unclassified redshifts, and use early DESI spectroscopy of 194,000 quasar targets to determine their redshift distribution and stellar contamination fraction (2.6%). Due to significant excess large-scale power in the quasar autocorrelation, we apply weights to mitigate contamination from imaging systematics such as depth, extinction, and stellar density. We use realistic contaminated mocks to determine the greatest number of systematic modes that we can fit, before we are biased by overfitting and spuriously remove real power. We find that linear regression with one to seven imaging templates removed per region accurately recovers the input cross-power, f NL and linear bias. As in previous analyses, our fNL constraint depends on the linear primordial non-Gaussianity bias parameter, b Φ = 2(b - p)δ c assuming universality of the halo mass function. We measure f NL = -26 +45 -40 with p = 1.6 (f NL = -18 +29 -27 with p = 1.0), and find that this result is robust under several systematics tests. Future spectroscopic quasar cross-correlations with Planck lensing can tighten the f NL constraints by a factor of 2 if they can remove the excess power on large scales in the quasar auto power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Deciphering baryonic feedback with galaxy clusters

Abstract Upcoming cosmic shear analyses will precisely measure the cosmic matter distribution at low redshifts. At these redshifts, the matter distribution is affected by galaxy formation physics, primarily baryonic feedback from star formation and active galactic nuclei. Employing measurements from theMagneticumandIllustrisTNGsimulations and a dark matter + baryon (DMB) halo model, this paper demonstrates that Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect observations of galaxy clusters, whose masses have been calibrated using weak gravitational lensing, can constrain the baryonic impact on cosmic shear with statistical and systematic errors subdominant to the measurement errors of DES-Y3 and LSST-Y1, with systematic errors on S 8 and Ω m reaching 10% and 50% of the statistical errors, respectively. For LSST-Y6 and Roman surveys, these systematic errors increase to 150% and 100% of the statistical errors, indicating the necessity for further model developments for future surveys. We further dissect the contributions from different scales and halos with different masses to cosmic shear, highlighting the dominant role of SZ clusters at scales critical for cosmic shear analyses. These findings suggest a promising avenue for future joint analyses of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and lensing surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DESI 2024 III: baryon acoustic oscillations from galaxies and quasars

We present the DESI 2024 galaxy and quasar baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) measurements using over 5.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1 < z < 2.1. Divided by tracer type, we utilize 300,017 galaxies from the magnitude-limited Bright Galaxy Survey with 0.1 < z < 0.4, 2,138,600 Luminous Red Galaxies with 0.4 < z < 1.1, 2,432,022 Emission Line Galaxies with 0.8 < z < 1.6, and 856,652 quasars with 0.8 < z < 2.1, over a ∼ 7,500 square degree footprint. The analysis was blinded at the catalog-level to avoid confirmation bias. All fiducial choices of the BAO fitting and reconstruction methodology, as well as the size of the systematic errors, were determined on the basis of the tests with mock catalogs and the blinded data catalogs. We present several improvements to the BAO analysis pipeline, including enhancing the BAO fitting and reconstruction methods in a more physically-motivated direction, and also present results using combinations of tracers. We employ a unified BAO analysis method across all tracers. We present a re-analysis of SDSS BOSS and eBOSS results applying the improved DESI methodology and find scatter consistent with the level of the quoted SDSS theoretical systematic uncertainties. With the total effective survey volume of ∼ 18 Gpc3, the combined precision of the BAO measurements across the six different redshift bins is ∼0.52%, marking a 1.2-fold improvement over the previous state-of-the-art results using only first-year data. We detect the BAO in all of these six redshift bins. The highest significance of BAO detection is 9.1σ at the effective redshift of 0.93, with a constraint of 0.86% placed on the BAO scale. We find that our observed BAO scales are systematically larger than the prediction of the Planck 2018-ΛCDM at z < 0.8. We translate the results into transverse comoving distance and radial Hubble distance measurements, which are used to constrain cosmological models in our companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of Telescope Transmission Using a Collimated Beam Projector

With the increasingly large number of Type Ia supernova being detected by current-generation survey telescopes, and even more expected with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the precision of cosmological measurements will become limited by systematic uncertainties in flux calibration rather than statistical noise. One major source of systematic error in determining SNe Ia color evolution (needed for distance estimation) is uncertainty in telescope transmission, both within and between surveys. We introduce here the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), which is meant to measure a telescope transmission with collimated light. The collimated beam more closely mimics a stellar wave front as compared to flat-field-based instruments, allowing for more precise handling of systematic errors such as those from ghosting and filter angle-of-incidence dependence. As a proof of concept, we present CBP measurements of the StarDICE prototype telescope, achieving a standard (1σ) uncertainty of 3% on average over the full wavelength range measured with a single beam illumination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Accuracy versus precision in boosted top tagging with the ATLAS detector

The identification of top quark decays where the top quark has a large momentum transverse to the beam axis, known as top tagging , is a crucial component in many measurements of Standard Model processes and searches for beyond the Standard Model physics at the Large Hadron Collider. Machine learning techniques have improved the performance of top tagging algorithms, but the size of the systematic uncertainties for all proposed algorithms has not been systematically studied. This paper presents the performance of several machine learning based top tagging algorithms on a dataset constructed from simulated proton-proton collision events measured with the ATLAS detector at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The systematic uncertainties associated with these algorithms are estimated through an approximate procedure that is not meant to be used in a physics analysis, but is appropriate for the level of precision required for this study. The most performant algorithms are found to have the largest uncertainties, motivating the development of methods to reduce these uncertainties without compromising performance. To enable such efforts in the wider scientific community, the datasets used in this paper are made publicly available.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Re-examining urban rainfall enhancement over North America

Abstract Quantifying intensification/suppression of precipitation over urban areas relative to their rural surroundings can inform efforts to reduce urban flooding. Few studies have systematically addressed whether urban areas exhibit a higher/lower probability of precipitation and/or higher/lower annual total precipitation and/or intensification/weakening of intense precipitation events relative to nearby rural areas across a range of hydroclimatic conditions and urban contexts. Here we address this literature gap using the IMERG V07 data set and analyses of rural and urban samples drawn from 47 conurbations across North America. Specifically, we quantify whether/how precipitation regimes over the urban grid cells differ from those in rural grid cells located 100–250 km from the city center and at a similar elevation. As in previous research, there is evidence that both the probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are typically higher in the urban grid cells. However, most conurbations have lower upper percentile precipitation rates in the urban sample and lower median precipitation rates above the 95th percentile than are present in samples drawn from rural grid cells. Thus, these conurbations are not, on average, intensifying high-magnitude precipitation events over urban grid cells. Further, the total volume of water accumulated at the surface during events of equivalent duration is not systematically higher over the urban areas, and 20 year return period values of 30 min and wettest pentad precipitation are also not systematically higher over the urban areas. The nature of urban modification of precipitation is a strong function of the prevailing hydroclimate. For example, the heaviest rainfall periods are enhanced over urban grid cells within regional hydroclimates where the overall probability of precipitation and annual total precipitation are low. Conversely, there is evidence for urban suppression of the highest percentile precipitation rates in wetter hydroclimates.

Pryor, Sara C. (ORCID:0000000348473440)↗

Epidemiological Studies of Low-Dose Ionizing Radiation and Cancer: Rationale and Framework for the Monograph and Overview of Eligible Studies

Abstract Whether low-dose ionizing radiation can cause cancer is a critical and long-debated question in radiation protection. Since the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation report by the National Academies in 2006, new publications from large, well-powered epidemiological studies of low doses have reported positive dose-response relationships. It has been suggested, however, that biases could explain these findings. We conducted a systematic review of epidemiological studies with mean doses less than 100 mGy published 2006–2017. We required individualized doses and dose-response estimates with confidence intervals. We identified 26 eligible studies (eight environmental, four medical, and 14 occupational), including 91 000 solid cancers and 13 000 leukemias. Mean doses ranged from 0.1 to 82 mGy. The excess relative risk at 100 mGy was positive for 16 of 22 solid cancer studies and 17 of 20 leukemia studies. The aim of this monograph was to systematically review the potential biases in these studies (including dose uncertainty, confounding, and outcome misclassification) and to assess whether the subset of minimally biased studies provides evidence for cancer risks from low-dose radiation. Here, we describe the framework for the systematic bias review and provide an overview of the eligible studies.

Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy↗