Influence of spatially dependent, modeled soil carbon emission factors on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol
Converting land to biofuel feedstock production incurs changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) that can influence biofuel life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates of these land use change (LUC) and life-cycle GHG emissions affect biofuels’ attractiveness and eligibility under a number of renewable fuel policies in the U.S. and abroad. Modeling was used to refine the spatial resolution and depth-extent of domestic estimates of SOC change for land (cropland, cropland pasture, grasslands, and forests) conversion scenarios to biofuel crops (corn, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow). In most regions, conversions from cropland and cropland pasture to biofuel crops led to neutral or small levels of SOC sequestration, while conversion of grassland and forest generally caused net SOC loss. Results of SOC change were incorporated into the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to assess their influence on life-cycle GHG emissions for the biofuels considered. Total LUC GHG emissions (g CO2eq MJ-1) were 2.1–9.3 for corn, -0.7 for corn stover, -3.4–12.9 for switchgrass, and -20.1–-6.2 for Miscanthus; these varied with SOC modeling assumptions applied. Extending soil depth from 30 to 100cm affected spatially-explicit SOC change and overall LUC GHG emissions; however the influence on LUC GHG emissions estimates were less significant in corn and corn stover than cellulosic feedstocks. Total life-cycle GHG emissions (g CO2eq MJ-1, 100cm) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18-26 for switchgrass ethanol, and -0.6–-7 for Miscanthus ethanol.