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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Deterministic and Monte Carlo Nuclear Data Adjustment Methods [Slides]

For the Bayesian Monte Carlo methodology, a need to understand convergence of the posterior moments as a function of the number of parameter realizations is required. In high-dimensional systems, it can be very costly to sample entire parameter space and perform functional evaluation for every realization. Bayesian Monte Carlo allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and prior/posterior PDF shape. The Bayesian Stochastic Collocation Method is a deterministic approach to “sample” the parameter space. It allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and posterior PDF shape. Higher-order posterior moments (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, etc.) can be studied through polynomial expansion. Tensor product quadrature scales poorly and can use sparse grid quadrature methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Safeguards Statistical Assumptions via Stochastic Simulation

Herein, the authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 SQ, using typical IAEA inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of Shear Displacement and Stress Changes on Fracture Hydraulic Aperture and Flow Anisotropy

Fluid flow in fractures has the potential to drastically change the economic, environmental, and safety risks associated with a subsurface operation. This work focuses on the analysis of experimental shear fracturing and subsequent shear displacement of a shale specimen that contains multiple pre-existing natural fractures. A triaxial direct shear apparatus with concurrent µCT imaging allowed continuous monitoring of sample permeability and changes in fracture geometry during fracture creation, displacement, and changes in stress. Steady-state, low Reynolds number fluid flow simulations were used to determine the changes of each individual fracture’s hydraulic aperture due to displacement and effective stress. The development of anisotropy in the hydraulic aperture of a generated shear fracture was determined for shear displacements of 0.38, 0.74, and 2.04 mm. At high confining stress (30 MPa), shear displacement significantly reduced the hydraulic aperture of the shear fracture to below flow detectable limits and X-ray imaging resolution (23 × 23 × 23 µm 3 ). The shear generated fracture was found to be more sensitive to changes in effective stress compared to the pre-existing natural fractures. Existing models derived from fluid flow equations accounting for stochastic fracture roughness were able to partially fit the simulated flow properties of the pre-existing fractures, but no model was found to fit the flow properties of the newly formed shear fracture. These results are the first report of simultaneous changes in the geometry and flow properties of surrounding, parallel natural fractures as a shear fracture is generated with varying stress and shear displacement conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phase-space entropy cascade and irreversibility of stochastic heating in nearly collisionless plasma turbulence

We consider a nearly collisionless plasma consisting of a species of “test particles” in one spatial and one velocity dimension, stirred by an externally imposed stochastic electric field—a kinetic analog of the Kraichnan model of passive advection. The mean effect on the particle distribution function is turbulent diffusion in velocity space—known as stochastic heating. Accompanying this heating is the generation of fine-scale structure in the distribution function, which we characterize with the collisionless (Casimir) invariant C 2 ∝ ∫ ∫ d x d v 〈 f 2 〉 —a quantity that here plays the role of (negative) entropy of the distribution function. We find that C 2 is transferred from large scales to small scales in both position and velocity space via a phase-space cascade enabled by both particle streaming and nonlinear interactions between particles and the stochastic electric field. We compute the steady-state fluxes and spectrum of C 2 in Fourier space, with k and s denoting spatial and velocity wave numbers, respectively. In our model, the nonlinearity in the evolution equation for the spectrum turns into a fractional Laplacian operator in k space, leading to anomalous diffusion. Whereas even the linear phase mixing alone would lead to a constant flux of C 2 to high s (towards the collisional dissipation range) at every k , the nonlinearity accelerates this cascade by intertwining velocity and position space so that the flux of C 2 is to both high k and high s simultaneously. Integrating over velocity (spatial) wave numbers, the k -space ( s -space) flux of C 2 is constant down to a dissipation length (velocity) scale that tends to zero as the collision frequency does, even though the rate of collisional dissipation remains finite. The resulting spectrum in the inertial range is a self-similar function in the ( k , s ) plane, with power-law asymptotics at large k and s . Our model is fully analytically solvable, but the asymptotic scalings of the spectrum can also be found via a simple phenomenological theory whose key assumption is that the cascade is governed by a “critical balance” in phase space between the linear and nonlinear timescales. We argue that stochastic heating is made irreversible by this entropy cascade and that, while collisional dissipation accessed via phase mixing occurs only at small spatial scales rather than at every scale as it would in a linear system, the cascade makes phase mixing even more effective overall in the nonlinear regime than in the linear one. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic Approaches for Calculating and Aggregating Detection Probabilities for Nuclear Material Diversion

The authors built and tested a stochastic simulation to estimate achieved detection probabilities (DPs) on a stratum basis, over a tailorable range of diverted amounts from 0 to 2 significant quantities (SQ), using typical International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspection data: i.e., SQ in stratum, number of items, number of gross/partial/bias defect measurements conducted, and realistic relative standard deviation (RSD) values for typical IAEA verification measurements. For bulk strata, the model calculates achieved DP at 0.01 SQ diversion increments; for item strata, the model calculates DP using the smallest realistic diversion increment (e.g., a plate, pin, or coupon). After successfully benchmarking against IAEA deterministic models, the simulation was used to test the sensitivity of DP to certain standard assumptions and selected input parameters. First, the equal defect assumption was tested; the results suggest significant complexity in the effectiveness of partial defect measurements. Next, the authors explored the sensitivity of DP to the assumed RSD of attribute tests. Then, the authors compared non-normal models for instrument performance (e.g., logistic, step, or arbitrary functions) to the typical results from a normal distribution (characterized by RSD). This last comparison was supplemented with experimentally derived performance data for an HM-5 gamma spectrometer. The HM-5 was used to make enrichment measurements on both LEU and HEU MTR fuel elements as plates were removed, and the results fit with logistic and step curves and applied in the simulation. These stochastic DP results were compared to DP estimates from a deterministic model assuming a normal curve and typical RSD, yielding insights that could improve effectiveness in the field. These early results illustrate the potential of stochastic models to better understand achieved DP and to improve safeguards effectiveness.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient Distributed Frequency Regulation of Renewable Generators under Communication Interruptions

Modern power systems (MPSs) face significant challenges due to the high penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) and new types of loads such as electric vehicles (EVs). Traditional load frequency control (LFC) methods struggle with the intermittent, stochastic nature of RESs, the near-zero inertia of power-electronics-based generators, and the mobility of controllable loads and battery systems. This paper introduces a novel resilient distributed frequency regulation method to address these issues. The proposed method employs a state space model to represent the dynamic behavior of participating power sources while accounting for stochastic switching processes to model structural and parameter variations caused by disruptions such as generator connection/disconnection, communication interruptions, and physical faults. By integrating these dynamic and stochastic components, the method treats power grids as a comprehensive stochastic hybrid system. Our method enhances conventional frequency control by incorporating local stability control, neighborhood control decoupling, and coordination feedback. Theoretical analyses establish the stability, convergence, and resilience of the proposed method, and its effectiveness is validated through case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particulate Fuel Modeling of MC 2 -3 using Iterative Local Spatial Self-shielding Method

We report a new spatial self-shielding method for particulate fuels has been developed based on disadvantage factors and implemented in the MC 2 -3 code. This method named the iterative local spatial self-shielding (ILSS) method considers the shadowing effect of randomly distributed particles on spatial self-shielding in particles through a homogenized composition region added outside the particle of interest at the center. The self-shielded cross sections of the central particle are determined iteratively since they are used in determining the cross sections of the homogenized composition region. The ILSS method was verified for infinite stochastic medium problems of single and multiple types of particles, VHTR unit cell problems, and HTTR assembly problems. The verification test results show that the ILSS method accurately predicts the stochastic particle shadowing effect and reaction rates in particles, whereas the regular array model and the stochastic collision probability method underpredict the particle shadowing effect and overestimate reaction rates in particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Parallel computing for power system climate resiliency: Solving a large-scale stochastic capacity expansion problem with mpi-sppy

Here we propose a nodal stochastic generation and transmission expansion planning model that incorporates the output from high-resolution global climate models through load and generation availability scenarios. We implement our model in Pyomo and perform computational studies on a realistically-sized test case of the California electric grid in a high performance computing environment. We propose model reformulations and algorithm tuning to efficiently solve this large problem using a variant of the Progressive Hedging Algorithm. We utilize the parallelization capabilities and overall versatility of mpi-sppy, exploiting its hub-and-spoke architecture to concurrently obtain inner and outer bounds on an optimal expansion plan. Initial results show that instances with 360 representative days on a system with over 8,000 buses can be solved to within 5% of optimality in under 4 h of wall clock time, a first step towards solving a large-scale power system expansion planning problem across a wide range of climate-informed operational scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate modeling of Monte Carlo radiation transport with convolutional neural networks for shielding optimization

Here, we present a machine learning (ML)-based surrogate model using convolutional neural networks (CNN) designed to emulate the attenuation of neutron fields as they pass through various shielding materials. This model can compute the outgoing neutron flux almost instantaneously and achieves reasonable accuracy compared to traditional Monte Carlo (MC)-based codes, which are computationally intensive. This emulator alleviates the complexity of neutron radiation transport through shielding materials by reducing the dimensionality and enables shielding optimization for a known radiation environment. This optimization process, which would have taken an unrealistic timeline due to several complex radiation transport simulations, can now be achieved in minutes, thus increasing computational capabilities in radiation shielding assessment. We demonstrate the applications of this emulator in computing effective dose rates and optimizing shielding solutions for a heavy-ion accelerator facility, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where secondary neutrons produced via beam interactions dominate the radiation environment.

accelerator shielding↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic simulations of temporally and spatially variable Fe cycling within a floodplain aquifer

This data package contains model input and output files for local and global sensitivity analysis (SA) of a reactive transport model simulating redox cycling within a floodplain aquifer. The reaction network is implemented in CrunchFlow and focuses on spatially and temporally heterogeneous Fe cycling, though it contains several other species and redox pathways (37 aqueous species and 7 minerals in total). The package contains data from 600 Monte Carlo simulations (for global SA) and 104 one-at-a-time simulations (for local SA). It includes all input files required to run the CrunchFlow model, as well as limited model output – .csv files containing time series of primary species concentrations at 21 grid cells within the domain. These time series files contain the following species: H+, CO32-, SO42-, Cl-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Fe(II), Fe(III), HS-, CH3COO-, O2(aq), S(aq), and Br-.These data were used to demonstrate the application of a novel form of global SA, distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA) to a reactive transport model. The 2D model simulates the export of reduced species from pockets of fine-grained, organic-rich sediments embedded in a coarse sand aquifer. Stochastic simulations jointly varied 17 key model input parameters across several orders of magnitude, including the spatial variability of each parameter. DGSA on the model results reveal that the amplitude and variability of exported Fe(II) are most sensitive to the interaction between sand permeability and individual reaction rates. By contrast, the propagation of reducing conditions downgradient from the fine-grained lenses depends most heavily on the rate of dissolved organic carbon and sulfate release from the fines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Growth phase estimation for abundant bacterial populations sampled longitudinally from human stool metagenomes

Longitudinal sampling of the stool has yielded important insights into the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome. However, human stool samples are available approximately once per day, while commensal population doubling times are likely on the order of minutes-to-hours. Despite this mismatch in timescales, much of the prior work on human gut microbiome time series modeling has assumed that day-to-day fluctuations in taxon abundances are related to population growth or death rates, which is likely not the case. Here, we propose an alternative model of the human gut as a stationary system, where population dynamics occur internally and the bacterial population sizes measured in a bolus of stool represent a steady-state endpoint of these dynamics. We formalize this idea as stochastic logistic growth. We show how this model provides a path toward estimating the growth phases of gut bacterial populations in situ. We validate our model predictions using an in vitro Escherichia coli growth experiment. Finally, we show how this method can be applied to densely-sampled human stool metagenomic time series data. We discuss how these growth phase estimates may be used to better inform metabolic modeling in flow-through ecosystems, like animal guts or industrial bioreactors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Process-based Model with Temperature, Water, and Lab-derived Data Improves Predictions of Daily Culex pipiens/restuans Mosquito Density

While the number of human cases of mosquito-borne diseases has increased in North America in the last decade, accurate modeling of mosquito population density has remained a challenge. Longitudinal mosquito trap data over the many years needed for model calibration, and validation is relatively rare. In particular, capturing the relative changes in mosquito abundance across seasons is necessary for predicting the risk of disease spread as it varies from year to year. We developed a discrete, semi-stochastic, mechanistic process-based mosquito population model that captures life-cycle egg, larva, pupa, adult stages, and diapause for Culex pipiens (Diptera, Culicidae) and Culex restuans (Diptera, Culicidae) mosquito populations. This model combines known models for development and survival into a fully connected age-structured model that can reproduce mosquito population dynamics. Mosquito development through these stages is a function of time, temperature, daylight hours, and aquatic habitat availability. The time-dependent parameters are informed by both laboratory studies and mosquito trap data from the Greater Toronto Area. The model incorporates city-wide water-body gauge and precipitation data as a proxy for aquatic habitat. This approach accounts for the nonlinear interaction of temperature and aquatic habitat variability on the mosquito life stages. We demonstrate that the full model predicts the yearly variations in mosquito populations better than a statistical model using the same data sources. This improvement in modeling mosquito abundance can help guide interventions for reducing mosquito abundance in mitigating mosquito-borne diseases like West Nile virus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and improving the performance of molten-salt-steam heat exchangers in concentrating solar power plants

Shell-and-tube heat exchangers (HXs) for steam generation from molten salts in concentrating solar power (CSP) plants experience thermal fatigue due to significant temperature gradients and inherent transient operation. Molten salt-steam HX design lifespans exceed actual lifespans, and, as a consequence, designers overpredict plant profitability and operators neglect appropriate prescriptions to optimize these lifetimes. Here, this study refines HX lifespan estimates with data benchmarked against thermal-fluid mechanical modeling of stress and accumulated fatigue. Reduced-order thermal models of the molten salt-steam, shell-and-tube evaporator and superheater predict transient temperature profiles along the two HXs salt-steam flow paths. The modeled evaporator and superheater temperature profiles enable assessment of cyclic stresses within the HX tubesheets, where molten-salt HX failures are most common. Evaporator and superheater performance data from a current 110 MW elec commercial CSP plant provide a basis for validating the reduced-order HX models. HX life predictions derived from stochastic failure distributions serve as inputs for simulating and optimizing existing plant operations. The impact of the updated lifespans on overall plant revenue depends on operating scenarios. This study suggests that typical ramping rates for a CSP plant with a high-temperature Rankine cycle result in an evaporator and superheater life of approximately 10 and 25 years, respectively, compared to the design target of 30 years. Reduced HX lifespans decrease operational plant revenue on average by 4.6-5.1%. Furthermore, there may be as many as four HX replacements over the 30-year lifetime of the plant; and, purchase agreement loss due to failure to meet contractual production requirements can have ramifications that include the risk of bankruptcy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning-based demand-supply-coupled charging station location problem for electric vehicle demand management

We present a learning-based, demand-supply-coupled optimization model for the charging station location problem (CSLP), aiming to integrate the concept of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand management into the planning of charging infrastructures. In stage one, a gradient boosting-based learning model is developed to predict the charging demand of a charging station based on 15 defined features. Next, in stage two, a demand–supply-coupled CSLP model is developed to optimize the total charging usage rates of both existing and newly selected charging stations. We design a gradient-based stochastic spatial search algorithm to solve the proposed model. A case study with 6-year charging event data from Kansas City Missouri is performed. Results show that the proposed method can generate satisfactory charging demand predictions, and can increase charging usage rates by 14%, outperforming two benchmark approaches. Furthermore, the results of this research are poised to guide agencies in identifying optimal locations for new charging stations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many-Exciton Quantum Dynamics in a Ruddlesden–Popper Tin Iodide

We present a study on the many-body exciton interactions in a Ruddlesden–Popper tin halide, namely, (PEA) 2 SnI 4 (PEA = phenylethylammonium), using coherent two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. The optical dephasing times of the third-order polarization observed in these systems are determined by exciton many-body interactions and lattice fluctuations. We investigate the excitation-induced dephasing (EID) and observe a significant reduction of the dephasing time with increasing excitation density as compared to its lead counterpart (PEA) 2 PbI 4 , which we have previously reported in a separate publication [J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 153, 164706]. Surprisingly, we find that the EID interaction parameter is four orders of magnitude higher in (PEA) 2 SnI 4 than that in (PEA) 2 PbI 4 . This increase in the EID rate may be due to exciton localization arising from a more statically disordered lattice in the tin derivative. This is supported by the observation of multiple closely spaced exciton states and the broadening of the linewidth with increasing population time (spectral diffusion), which suggests a static disordered structure relative to the highly dynamic lead-halide. Additionally, we find that the exciton nonlinear coherent lineshape shows evidence of a biexcitonic state with low binding energy (<10 meV) not observed in the lead system. We model the lineshapes based on a stochastic scattering theory that accounts for the interaction with a nonstationary population of dark background excitations. Our study provides evidence of differences in the exciton quantum dynamics between tin- and lead-based Ruddlesden–Popper metal halides (RPMHs) and links them to the exciton–exciton interaction strength and the static disorder aspect of the crystalline structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Concurrent multi-peak Bragg coherent x-ray diffraction imaging of 3D nanocrystal lattice displacement via global optimization

Abstract In this paper we demonstrated a method to reconstruct vector-valued lattice distortion fields within nanoscale crystals by optimization of a forward model of multi-reflection Bragg coherent diffraction imaging (MR-BCDI) data. The method flexibly accounts for geometric factors that arise when making BCDI measurements, is amenable to efficient inversion with modern optimization toolkits, and allows for globally constraining a single image reconstruction to multiple Bragg peak measurements. This is enabled by a forward model that emulates the multiple Bragg peaks of a MR-BCDI experiment from a single estimate of the 3D crystal sample. We present this forward model, we implement it within the stochastic gradient descent optimization framework, and we demonstrate it with simulated and experimental data of nanocrystals with inhomogeneous internal lattice displacement. We find that utilizing a global optimization approach to MR-BCDI affords a reliable path to convergence of data which is otherwise challenging to reconstruct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic 3D reconstruction of cracked polycrystalline NMC particles using 2D SEM data

Li-ion battery performance is strongly influenced by the 3D microstructure of its cathode particles. Cracks within these particles develop during calendaring and cycling, reducing connectivity but increasing reactive surface, making their impact on battery performance complex. Understanding these contradictory effects requires a quantitative link between particle morphology and battery performance. However, informative 3D imaging techniques are time-consuming, costly and rarely available, such that analyses often have to rely on 2D image data. This paper presents a novel stereological approach for generating virtual 3D cathode particles exhibiting crack networks that are statistically equivalent to those observed in 2D sections of experimentally measured particles. Consequently, 2D image data suffices for deriving a full 3D characterization of cracked cathodes particles. Such virtually generated 3D particles could serve as geometry input for spatially resolved electro-chemo-mechanical simulations to enhance our understanding of structure-property relationships of cathodes in Li-ion batteries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gravitational waves from primordial black hole evaporation with large extra dimensions

Abstract The spectra of gravitational waves from black hole evaporation generically peak at frequencies of order the Hawking temperature, making this signal ultra-high frequency for primordial black holes evaporating in the early universe. This motivates us to consider small black holes in theories with large extra dimensions, for which the peak frequency can be lowered substantially, since the true bulk Planck scaleM * can be much smaller than the effectiveM Pl . We study the emission of brane-localized gravitons during the Hawking evaporation of ultra-light primordial black holes in the context of theories with large extra dimensions, with the ultimate goal of computing the contribution to the stochastic gravitational wave background. To accurately model black hole evolution, we compute greybody factors for particles of spin-0, 1/2, 1, and 2 emitted on the brane and in the bulk, presuming the majority of emission proceeds during the Schwarzschild phase. We then compute the power spectrum and present day spectral density parameter for brane-localized gravitons contributing to a gravitational wave signal. We find that for an optimal choice of parameters, the peak frequency plateaus in the sub-MHz regime, within range of planned high-frequency gravitational wave detectors, making this scenario a target for detection once their sensitivity exceeds ΔN eff bounds.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗