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At least 577 records · Page 32

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DOE OSTI2021

Simulation and flow physics of a shocked and reshocked high-energy-density mixing layer

This work describes a computational investigation of multimode instability growth and multimaterial mixing induced by multiple shock waves in a high-energy-density (HED) environment, where pressures exceed 1 Mbar. The simulations are based on a series of experiments performed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and designed as an HED analogue of non-HED shock-tube studies of the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability and turbulent mixing. A three-dimensional computational modelling framework is presented. It treats many complications absent from canonical non-HED shock-tube flows, including distinct ion and free-electron internal energies, non-ideal equations of state, radiation transport and plasma-state mass diffusivities, viscosities and thermal conductivities. The simulations are tuned to the available NIF data, and traditional statistical quantities of turbulence are analysed. Integrated measures of turbulent kinetic energy and enstrophy both increase by over an order of magnitude due to reshock. Large contributions to enstrophy production during reshock are seen from both the baroclinic source and enstrophy–dilatation terms, highlighting the significance of fluid compressibility in the HED regime. Dimensional analysis reveals that Reynolds numbers and diffusive Péclet numbers in the HED flow are similar to those in a canonical non-HED analogue, but conductive Péclet numbers are much smaller in the HED flow due to efficient thermal conduction by free electrons. It is shown that the mechanism of electron thermal conduction significantly softens local spanwise gradients of both temperature and density, which causes a minor but non-negligible decrease in enstrophy production and small-scale mixing relative to a flow without this mechanism.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic evidence for scission neutrons

We discuss the neck rupture stage of fission and the emission of particles afterwards, two extremely rapid and highly non-equilibrium processes. Currently, the neck rupture cannot be directly probed by experiment, highlighting the importance of reliable theoretical predictions for this stage of fission. Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is used to simulate the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf. In conjunction with statistical models, inputs from microscopic calculations can be used to make predictions for prompt neutron and gamma emission spectra, quantities which can be experimentally measured. Here we characterize the scission mechanism within TDDFT and estimate the number of scission neutrons and their kinetic energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven learning of Mori–Zwanzig operators for isotropic turbulence

Developing reduced-order models for turbulent flows, which contain dynamics over a wide range of scales, is an extremely challenging problem. In statistical mechanics, the Mori–Zwanzig (MZ) formalism provides a mathematically exact procedure for constructing reduced-order representations of high-dimensional dynamical systems, where the effects due to the unresolved dynamics are captured in the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics. Turbulence models based on MZ formalism have been scarce due to the limited knowledge of the MZ operators, which originates from the difficulty in deriving MZ kernels for complex nonlinear dynamical systems. In this work, we apply a recently developed data-driven learning algorithm, which is based on Koopman's description of dynamical systems and Mori's linear projection operator, on a set of fully resolved isotropic turbulence datasets to extract the Mori–Zwanzig operators. With data augmentation using known turbulence symmetries, the extracted Markov term, memory kernel, and orthogonal dynamics are statistically converged and the generalized fluctuation–dissipation relation can be verified. The properties of the memory kernel and orthogonal dynamics, and their dependence on the choices of observables are investigated to address the modeling assumptions that are commonly used in MZ-based models. A series of numerical experiments are then constructed using the extracted kernels to evaluate the memory effects on prediction. The results show that the prediction errors are strongly affected by the choice of observables and can be further reduced by including the past history of the observables in the memory kernel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI for nuclear physics: the EXCLAIM project

An overview of the recent activity of the newly funded EXCLusives with AI and Machine learning (EXCLAIM) collaboration is presented. The main goal of the collaboration is to develop a framework to implement AI and machine learning techniques in problems emerging from the phenomenology of high energy exclusive scattering processes from nucleons and nuclei, maximizing the information that can be extracted from various sets of experimental data, while implementing theoretical constraints from lattice QCD. A specific perspective embraced by EXCLAIM is to use the methods of theoretical physics to understand the working of ML, beyond its standardized applications to physics analyses which most often rely on industrially provided tools, in an automated way.

Analysis and statistical methods↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deeply uncertain: comparing methods of uncertainty quantification in deep learning algorithms

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN), Concrete Dropout (CD), and Deep Ensembles (DE) - are compared to the standard analytic error propagation. We discuss this comparison in terms endemic to both machine learning ("epistemic" and "aleatoric") and the physical sciences ("statistical" and "systematic"). The comparisons are presented in terms of simulated experimental measurements of a single pendulum - a prototypical physical system for studying measurement and analysis techniques. Our results highlight some pitfalls that may occur when using these UQ methods. For example, when the variation of noise in the training set is small, all methods predicted the same relative uncertainty independently of the inputs. This issue is particularly hard to avoid in BNN. On the other hand, when the test set contains samples far from the training distribution, we found that no methods sufficiently increased the uncertainties associated to their predictions. This problem was particularly clear for CD. In light of these results, we make some recommendations for usage and interpretation of UQ methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

SDSS-IV MaNGA: 3D spin alignment of spiral and S0 galaxies

ABSTRACT We investigate the 3D spin alignment of galaxies with respect to the large-scale filaments using the MaNGA survey. The cosmic web is reconstructed from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey using disperse and the 3D spins of MaNGA galaxies are estimated using the thin disc approximation with integral field spectroscopy kinematics. Late-type spiral galaxies are found to have their spins parallel to the closest filament’s axis. The alignment signal is found to be dominated by low-mass spirals. Spins of S0-type galaxies tend to be oriented preferentially in perpendicular direction with respect to the filament’s axis. This orthogonal orientation is found to be dominated by S0s that show a notable misalignment between their kinematic components of stellar and ionized gas velocity fields and/or by low-mass S0s with lower rotation support compared to their high-mass counterparts. Qualitatively similar results are obtained when splitting galaxies based on the degree of ordered stellar rotation, such that galaxies with high spin magnitude have their spin aligned, and those with low spin magnitude in perpendicular direction to the filaments. In the context of conditional tidal torque theory, these findings suggest that galaxies’ spins retain memory of their larger scale environment. In agreement with measurements from hydrodynamical cosmological simulations, the measured signal at low redshift is weak, yet statistically significant. The dependence of the spin-filament orientation of galaxies on their stellar mass, morphology, and kinematics highlights the importance of sample selection to detect the signal.

Kraljic, Katarina↗

DOE OSTI2024

The dark energy survey supernova program: investigating beyond-ΛCDM

We report constraints on a variety of non-standard cosmological models using the full 5-yr photometrically classified type Ia supernova sample from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR). Both Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Suspiciousness calculations find no strong evidence for or against any of the non-standard models we explore. When combined with external probes, the AIC and Suspiciousness agree that 11 of the 15 models are moderately preferred over Flat-|$\Lambda$|CDM suggesting additional flexibility in our cosmological models may be required beyond the cosmological constant. We also provide a detailed discussion of all cosmological assumptions that appear in the DES supernova cosmology analyses, evaluate their impact, and provide guidance on using the DES Hubble diagram to test non-standard models. An approximate cosmological model, used to perform bias corrections to the data holds the biggest potential for harbouring cosmological assumptions. We show that even if the approximate cosmological model is constructed with a matter density shifted by |$\Delta \Omega _{\rm m}\sim 0.2$| from the true matter density of a simulated data set the bias that arises is subdominant to statistical uncertainties. Nevertheless, we present and validate a methodology to reduce this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Guaranteed Phase & Topology Identification in Three Phase Distribution Grids

We present a method for joint phase identification and topology recovery in unbalanced three phase radial networks using only voltage measurements. By recovering phases and topology jointly, we utilize all three phase voltage measurements and can handle networks where some buses have a subset of three phases. Our method is theoretically justified by a novel linearized formulation of unbalanced three phase power flow and makes precisely defined and reasonable assumptions on line impedances and load statistics. We validate our method on three IEEE test networks simulated under realistic conditions in OpenDSS, comparing our performance to the state of the art. In addition to providing a new method for phase and topology recovery, our intuitively structured linearized model will provide a foundation for future work in this and other applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Self-Organizing Map-Based Resilience Quantification and Resilient Control of Distribution Systems Under Extreme Events

Due to climate change, extreme weather events are occurring more frequently and with increasing impact. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution system operators (DSO) to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks. To embed resilience into DSO's decision-making, resilience needs to be first quantified and then integrated into the system-level optimization. Therefore, this paper first develops a novel self-organizing map (SOM) based method (called SomRes) to quantify the time-varying resilience index of a system that can leverage the powerful classification property of SOMs and removes some of the disadvantages of subjective weight assignment methods. Using SomRes, a resilient resource allocation and operational dispatch algorithm is further developed to enhance system resilience against extreme events by considering the SomRes resilience index directly as the feedback. Here, the proposed resilience quantification approach is benchmarked with a state-of-the-art approach and the efficacy of the proposed resilient dispatch algorithm is demonstrated through several deterministic and statistical case studies on the IEEE 123-bus distribution system. Simulation studies show that the proposed SomRes quantification method is an appropriate indicator of system resilience, and the resilient resource allocation and dispatch strategy can significantly reduce critical load shedding under varying event propagation scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Third integer resonant extraction transit time simulation studies

In this work, we present the investigation of transit time of particles in the non-linear third-integer resonant extraction process. Transit time is defined as the number of turns a particle takes to get extracted once it is in the unstable region in the phase space, i.e., outside the triangular separatrix in case of third-integer resonance. The study of transit time is important because transit time directly contributes to the beam response time during resonant extraction and thus knowing it apriori would be practically useful in designing of the extraction system. In this work, we shall investigate the analytical derivation of the transit time of particles (to the first order Kobayashi Hamiltonian) in different parts of the phase space distribution and compare against the analytical results. We also compare the simulation result of the transit time of particles (with higher statistics) for the static as well as dynamic extraction conditions cases, particularly in the context of resonant extraction parameters for Mu2e experiment at Fermilab.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Streamlining the Coupling of BISON and Dakota Through the NEAMS Workbench

Metallic nuclear fuels for use in advanced reactors are an active area of research and development. Robust, accurate metallic fuel performance models are necessary for the design, analysis, and licensing of such reactors. However, metallic fuel performance models require additional development; they are not as mature as uranium dioxide fuel performance models. To support further metallic fuel development, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Florida have streamlined the coupling of the BISON fuel performance code with Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (Dakota) statistical analysis tool through the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench. This work included performing three different sensitivity analyses on metallic nuclear fuel models in BISON. The analyses examined were a general model of the IFR-1 experiment, the X430 experiment T654 pin, and the X430 experiment T651 pin. The results suggest that BISON and Dakota can be integrated through NEAMS Workbench to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses and visualize the results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microscopic Evidence for Scission Neutrons

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Third Integer Resonant Extraction Transit Time Simulation Studies

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–present: the effects of climate change and river system alterations

Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the statistical theory of self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow

Dark matter, if it exists, accounts for five times as much as the ordinary baryonic matter. Compared to hydrodynamic turbulence, the flow of dark matter might possess the widest presence in our universe. This paper presents a statistical theory for the flow of dark matter that is compared with N-body simulations. By contrast to hydrodynamics of normal fluids, dark matter flow is self-gravitating, long-range, and collisionless with a scale-dependent flow behavior. The peculiar velocity field is of constant divergence nature on small scale and irrotational on large scale. The statistical measures, i.e., correlation, structure, dispersion, and spectrum functions, are modeled on both small and large scales, respectively. Kinematic relations between statistical measures are fully developed for incompressible, constant divergence, and irrotational flow. Incompressible and constant divergence flow share the same kinematic relations for even order correlations. The limiting correlation of velocity $\mathrm{ρ_{L}=1/2}$ on the smallest scale ( r = 0) is a unique feature of collisionless flow (⁠$\mathrm{ρ_{L}=1}$ for incompressible flow). On large scale, transverse velocity correlation has an exponential form $T_{2}∝e^{–r/r_2}$ with a constant comoving scale r 2 =21.3 Mpc/h that may be related to the horizon size at matter–radiation equality. All other correlation, structure, dispersion, and spectrum functions for velocity, density, and potential fields are derived analytically from kinematic relations for irrotational flow. On small scale, longitudinal structure function follows one-fourth law of ${S}_{2}^{1}∝r^{1/4}$. All other statistical measures can be obtained from kinematic relations for constant divergence flow. Vorticity is negatively correlated for scale r between 1 and 7 Mpc/h. Divergence is negatively correlated for r > 30 Mpc/h that leads to a negative density correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Learning to Correct Climate Projection Biases

The fidelity of climate projections is often undermined by biases in climate models due to their simplification or misrepresentation of unresolved climate processes. While various bias correction methods have been developed to post-process model outputs to match observations, existing approaches usually focus on limited, low-order statistics, or break either the spatiotemporal consistency of the target variable, or its dependency upon model resolved dynamics. We develop a Regularized Adversarial Domain Adaptation (RADA) methodology to overcome these deficiencies, and enhance efficient identification and correction of climate model biases. Instead of pre-assuming the spatiotemporal characteristics of model biases, we apply discriminative neural networks to distinguish historical climate simulation samples and observation samples. The evidences based on which the discriminative neural networks make distinctions are applied to train the domain adaptation neural networks to bias correct climate simulations. We regularize the domain adaptation neural networks using cycle-consistent statistical and dynamical constraints. An application to daily precipitation projection over the contiguous United States shows that our methodology can correct all the considered moments of daily precipitation at approximately $1^\circ$ resolution, ensures spatiotemporal consistency and inter-field correlations, and can discriminate between different dynamical conditions. Our methodology offers a powerful tool for disentangling model parameterization biases from their interactions with the chaotic evolution of climate dynamics, opening a novel avenue toward big-data enhanced climate predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗