Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Statistical physics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 577 records · Page 32
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Additive effects in high-voltage layered-oxide cells: A statistics of mixtures approach

Li 1.03 (Ni 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 ) 0.97 O 2 (NMC)-based coin cells containing the electrolyte additives vinylene carbonate (VC) and tris(trimethylsilyl)phosphite (TMSPi) in the range of 0-2 wt% were cycled between 3.0 and 4.4 V. The changes in capacity at rates of C/10 and C/1 and resistance at 60% state of charge were found to follow linear-with-time kinetic rate laws. Further, the C/10 capacity and resistance data were amenable to modeling by a statistics of mixtures approach. Applying physical meaning to the terms in the empirical models indicated that the interactions between the electrolyte and additives were not simple. For example, there were strong, synergistic interactions between VC and TMSPi affecting C/10 capacity loss, as expected, but there were other, more subtle interactions between the electrolyte components. In conclusion, the interactions between these components controlled the C/10 capacity decline and resistance increase.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mean-field control for efficient mixing of energy loads

In this work, we pose an engineering challenge of controlling an ensemble of energy devices via coordinated, implementation-light, and randomized on/off switching as a problem in nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. We show that mean-field control with nonlinear feedback on the cumulative consumption, assumed available to the aggregator via direct physical measurements of the energy flow, allows the ensemble to recover from its use in the demand response regime, i.e., transition to a statistical steady state, significantly faster than in the case of the fixed feedback. Moreover when the nonlinearity is sufficiently strong, one observes the phenomenon of “super-relaxation,” where the total instantaneous energy consumption of the ensemble transitions to the steady state much faster than the underlying probability distribution of the devices over their state space, while also leaving almost no devices outside of the comfort zone.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Optical fibres and fibre tapers with an array of Bragg gratings

The properties of optical fibres with an array of fibre Bragg gratings written directly during the fibre drawing are considered. Such optical fibres offer new possibilities for producing new types of active and passive fibre elements due to the enhanced back-reflected signal of the so-called artificial Rayleigh scattering, and are of interest for modelling physical phenomena associated with the statistics of reflecting centres in optical fibres, such as, e.g., localisation of photons. We studied fibres with an array of Bragg gratings written in photosensitive fibres, ordinary single-mode optical fibre of the SMF-28 type and in fibre with a core doped with erbium ions. To control the spectrum width of the reflected signal, we used chirped phase masks, as well as writing arrays of gratings in tapered optical fibres. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of baryonic physics on intrinsic alignments

We explore the effects of specific assumptions in the subgrid models of star formation and stellar and AGN feedback on intrinsic alignments of galaxies in cosmological simulations of "MassiveBlack-II" family. Using smaller volume simulations, we explored the parameter space of the subgrid star formation and feedback model and found remarkable robustness of the observable statistical measures to the details of subgrid physics. The one observational probe most sensitive to modeling details is the distribution of misalignment angles. We hypothesize that the amount of angular momentum carried away by the galactic wind is the primary physical quantity that controls the orientation of the stellar distribution. Finally, our results are also consistent with a similar study by the EAGLE simulation team.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic nature of magnetic processes studied by full-field soft X-ray microscopy

In nanomagnetism, one of the crucial scientific questions is whether magnetic behaviors are deterministic or stochastic on a nanoscale. Apart from the exciting physical issue, this question is also of paramount highest relevance for using magnetic materials in a wealth of technological applications such as magnetic storage and sensor devices. In the past, the research on the stochasticity of a magnetic process has been mainly done by macroscopic measurements, which only offer ensemble-averaged information. To give more accurate answer for the question and to fully understand related underlying physics, the direct observation of statistical behaviors in magnetic structures and magnetic phenomena utilizing advanced characterization techniques is highly required. One of the ideal tools for such study is a full-field soft X-ray microscope since it enables imaging of magnetic structures on the large field of view within a few seconds. Here in this paper, we review the stochastic behaviors of various magnetic processes including magnetization reversal process in thin films, magnetic domain wall motions in nanowires, and magnetic vortex formations in nanodisks studied by full-field soft X-ray microscopy. The origin triggering the stochastic nature witnessed in each magnetic process and the way to control the intrinsic nature are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Two-component flux explanation for the high energy neutrino events at IceCube

In understanding the spectral and flavor composition of the astrophysical neutrino flux responsible for the recently observed ultrahigh-energy events at IceCube we see how important both astrophysics and particle physics are. Here, we perform a statistical likelihood analysis to the three-year IceCube data and derive the allowed range of the spectral index and flux normalization for various well-motivated physical flavor compositions at the source. While most of the existing analyses so far assume the flavor composition of the neutrinos at an astrophysical source to be (1:2:0), it seems rather unnatural to assume only one type of source, once we recognize the possibility of at least two physical sources. Bearing this in mind, we entertain the possibility of a two-component source for the analysis of IceCube data. It appears that our two-component hypothesis explains some key features of the data better than a single-component scenario; i.e. it addresses the apparent energy gap between 400 TeV and about 1 PeV and easily accommodates the observed track-to-shower ratio. Given the extreme importance of the flavor composition for the correct interpretation of the underlying astrophysical processes as well as for the ramification for particle physics, this two-component flux should be tested as more data is accumulated.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Predictions of Neutron-rich Lanthanide Properties as a Probe of r -process Dynamics

Lanthanide element signatures are key to understanding many astrophysical observables, from merger kilonova light curves to stellar and solar abundances. To learn about the lanthanide element synthesis that enriched our solar system, we apply the statistical method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to examine the nuclear masses capable of forming the r-process rare-earth abundance peak. We describe the physical constraints we implement with this statistical approach and demonstrate the use of the parallel chains method to explore the multidimensional parameter space. We apply our procedure to three moderately neutron-rich astrophysical outflows with distinct types of r-process dynamics. We show that the mass solutions found are dependent on outflow conditions and are related to the r-process path. We describe in detail the mechanism behind peak formation in each case. We then compare our mass predictions for neutron-rich neodymium and samarium isotopes to the latest experimental data from the CPT at CARIBU. Here, we find our mass predictions given outflows that undergo an extended (n,γ)⇌(γ,n) equilibrium to be those most compatible with both observational solar abundances and neutron-rich mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Why it is Unfortunate that Linear Machine Learning “Works” so well in Electromechanical Switching of Ferroelectric Thin Films

Machine learning (ML) is relied on for materials spectroscopy. It is challenging to make ML models fail because statistical correlations can mimic the physics without causality. Here, using a benchmark band-excitation piezoresponse force microscopy polarization spectroscopy (BEPS) dataset the pitfalls of the so-called “better”, “faster”, and “less-biased” ML of electromechanical switching are demonstrated and overcome. Using a toy and real experimental dataset, it is demonstrated how linear nontemporal ML methods result in physically reasonable embedding (eigenvalues) while producing nonsensical eigenvectors and generated spectra, promoting misleading interpretations. A new method of unsupervised multimodal hyperspectral analysis of BEPS is demonstrated using long-short-term memory (LSTM) β-variational autoencoders (β-VAEs) . By including LSTM neurons, the ordinal nature of ferroelectric switching is considered. Further, to improve the interpretability of the latent space, a variational Kullback–Leibler-divergency regularization is imposed . Finally, regularization scheduling of β as a disentanglement metric is leveraged to reduce user bias. Combining these experiment-inspired modifications enables the automated detection of ferroelectric switching mechanisms, including a complex two-step, three-state one. Ultimately, this work provides a robust ML method for the rapid discovery of electromechanical switching mechanisms in ferroelectrics and is applicable to other multimodal hyperspectral materials spectroscopies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

TOUGH2-seed: A coupled fluid flow and mechanical-stochastic approach to model injection-induced seismicity

Understanding the injection-induced triggering mechanism is a fundamental step towards controlling the seismicity generated by deep underground exploitation. Here we propose a modeling approach based on coupling the TOUGH2 simulator with a geomechanical-stochastic model. Additionally, the hydro-mechanical-stochastic model provides a good representation of different mechanisms influencing each other during and after the injection phase. Each mechanism affects the induced seismicity in a different way and at different times during the reservoir stimulation, confirming that a complex interaction is in place, and that more sophisticated and physics-based approaches coupled with statistical model are required to explain such a complex interaction. In addition to previous statistical and hybrid models, our approach accounts for a full 3D formulation of both stresses and fluid flow, further including all the TOUGH2 capabilities. Furthermore, it includes interactions between triggered seismic events through calculation of static stress transfer. Here, in this work, we present the main capabilities of TOUGH2-SEED and apply the model to the Basel EGS case, successfully reproducing the injection pressure as well as the evolution of the seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and computational kinetics study of the liquid-phase hydrogenation of C=C and C=O bonds

Solvent effects on adsorption equilibrium and reaction kinetics are evaluated for hydrogenation reactions catalyzed by Pd/alumina in a series of different solvents. Three reactants – cyclohexene, benzene and benzaldehyde – and three solvents – n-heptane (HEP), methylcyclohexane (MCHA), decalin (DL) – have been investigated. Kinetic analysis of hydrogenation of cyclohexene reveals that hydrogen adsorbs on different sites from those where cyclohexene and the solvents adsorb; however, the presence of hydrogen on these separate sites affects the heats of adsorption of the hydrocarbons. When the solvent is a weakly interacting linear alkane (HEP), the rate determining step of the reaction is the first hydrogenation of adsorbed cyclohexene. Furthermore, this conclusion is supported by DFT calculations that show a higher enthalpy barrier for the first hydrogenation than for the second, while statistical thermodynamics analysis validates the physical significance of the entropy of adsorption parameters derived from the kinetic fitting of experimental data. By contrast, with solvents such as MCHA and DL, which interact more strongly with the metal surface and compete for active sites with the reactant and the surface intermediate, the rate limiting step seems to shift to the second hydrogenation step.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heat pumps for all? Distributions of the costs and benefits of residential air-source heat pumps in the United States

Electrification of fossil-fuel combustion in buildings is a key component of achieving global greenhouse gas emissions targets. We use physics simulations of 550,000 statistically representative households to analyze distributions of the costs and benefits of three air-to-air heat pump performance levels, with and without insulation upgrades, across the diversity of the US housing stock. We find positive greenhouse gas reductions in every US state for all performance levels across five 2022-2038 electric grid scenarios, with full adoption reducing national emissions by 5%-9%. We find that air-to-air heat pumps could be cost effective without subsidies in 59% of households (65 million). However, efficiency is key: whereas minimum-efficiency equipment could increase energy bills in 39% of households, this fraction is only 19% when also upgrading insulation or 5% when using higher-efficiency equipment, though both strategies have higher upfront costs. Such affordability challenges could be addressed through supportive incentives, policy, and innovation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Variable cascade dynamics and intermittency in the solar wind at 1 AU

In recent studies by ourselves and others of third-moment expressions for the rate of energy cascade in the solar wind, it has been shown that relatively large volumes of data are needed to produce convergent averages. These averages are in good agreement with independently obtained estimates for the average heating rate for a solar wind plasma under those conditions. The unanswered question has been whether the convergence issue is the result of intermittent dynamics or simple measurement uncertainties. In other words, is the difficulty in obtaining a single result that characterizes many similarly prepared samples due to in situ dynamics that create physically real variations or simple statistics? There have been publications showing evidence of intermittent dynamics in the solar wind. Here we show that the third-moment expressions and the computed energy cascade for relatively small samples of data comparable to the correlation length are generally well-formed estimates of the local dynamics. This leads us to conclude that intermittency and not simple measurement uncertainties are responsible for the slow convergence to expected heating rates. We partially characterize the scale size of the intermittency to be comparable to or smaller than the correlation length of the turbulence and we attempt to rephrase the discussion of third moments in terms of intermittent dynamics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Information-theoretic astrophysical uncertainties in the effective theory of dark matter direct detection

The impact of astrophysical uncertainties in direct detection searches can vary significantly across particle dark matter models and detector targets, due to the different velocity and momentum dependencies of the scattering cross section. We address these uncertainties for all operators of the nonrelativistic effective field theory of dark-matter/nucleon interactions, making use of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) information divergence to measure the deviation of the true dark matter velocity distribution from the Maxwell-Boltzmann form. This approach quantifies how astrophysical uncertainties affect each operator in the effective theory, without assuming any specific functional form for the velocity distribution. While for some operators the uncertainties are smaller than 1 order of magnitude for entropically motivated deviations from the Maxwell-Boltzmann form, for other operators, these uncertainties can be as large as three orders of magnitude near threshold. Furthermore, we identify the dependence of the scattering rate for various operators of the effective theory with different velocity-weighted moments of the velocity distribution, functionally analogous to the mean, variance, or skewness. This provides new analytic insight into which features of the velocity distribution are most relevant to detect a given particle dark matter model. Our technique is general and could be applied to a broader class of physics problems where a physical observable depends on the statistical moments of an uncertain theoretical distribution.

Herrera, Gonzalo [MIT, MKI; Harvard U.; Virginia T↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast estimation of the look-elsewhere effect using Gaussian random fields

Abstract We discuss the use of Gaussian random fields to estimate the look-elsewhere effect correction. We show that Gaussian random fields can be used to model the null-hypothesis significance maps from a large set of statistical problems commonly encountered in physics, such as template matching and likelihood ratio tests. Some specific examples are searches for dark matter using pixel arrays, searches for astronomical transients, and searches for fast-radio bursts. Gaussian random fields can be sampled efficiently in the frequency domain, and the excursion probability can be fitted with these samples to extend any estimation of the look-elsewhere effect to lower p values. In addition, in cases where the Gaussian random field is stationary and the parameter space is Euclidean, the look-elsewhere effect correction can be computed analytically. We demonstrate these methods using two example template matching problems. Finally, we apply these methods to estimate the trial factor of a $$4^3$$ 4 3 accelerometer array for the detection of dark matter tracks in the Windchime project. When a global significance of $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ is required, the estimated trial factor for such an accelerometer array is $$10^{14}$$ 10 14 for a one-second search, and $$10^{22}$$ 10 22 for a 1-year search.

Qin, Juehang (ORCID:0000000182288949)↗